Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1327–1347, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1327-2018 © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Risk-based flood protection planning under climate change and modeling uncertainty: a pre-alpine case study Beatrice Dittes1, Maria Kaiser2, Olga Špackovᡠ1, Wolfgang Rieger2, Markus Disse2, and Daniel Straub1 1Engineering Risk Analysis Group, Technische Universität München, Arcisstr. 21, 80333 Munich, Germany 2Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Technische Universität München, Arcisstr. 21, 80333 Munich, Germany Correspondence: Beatrice Dittes (
[email protected]) Received: 8 November 2017 – Discussion started: 21 November 2017 Revised: 2 April 2018 – Accepted: 17 April 2018 – Published: 15 May 2018 Abstract. Planning authorities are faced with a range of thorities to take decisions on flood protection planning that questions when planning flood protection measures: is the are economical while not leading to excessive losses or high existing protection adequate for current and future demands adjustment costs. It is important to consider costs – in con- or should it be extended? How will flood patterns change in struction, adjustment and flood damage – over the entire the future? How should the uncertainty pertaining to this in- measure life time. fluence the planning decision, e.g., for delaying planning or Ideally, the planning of flood protection infrastructure is including a safety margin? Is it sufficient to follow a pro- performed through a risk-based approach. Thereby, potential tection criterion (e.g., to protect from the 100-year flood) or damage is considered in the decision-making process.