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Notice À La Commission Des Sondages – Juillet 2019 2 Les Indications Générales Sur Le Sondage

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Notice À La Commission Des Sondages – Juillet 2019 2 Les Indications Générales Sur Le Sondage La situation politique dans le 15ème arrondissement de Paris Note à la commission des sondages Juillet 2019 15 place de la République 75003 Paris La méthodologie L’étude a été réalisée auprès d’un échantillon de 602 personnes inscrites sur listes électorales, issu d’un échantillon de 634 personnes représentatif de la population du 15ème arrondissement de Paris âgée de 18 ans et plus. L’échantillon est constitué selon la méthode des quotas, au regard des critères de sexe, d’âge, de catégorie socioprofessionnelle. L’échantillon a été interrogé par téléphone sur système CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interview). Les interviews ont été réalisées du 19 au 24 juin 2019 La colonne de référence que nous avons choisie pour le résultat publié des intentions de vote est le redressement sociodémographique + vote au premier tour de la présidentielle de 2017 sur les certains d’aller voter. Pour déterminer le pourcentage de personnes n’exprimant pas d’intentions de vote, nous avons utilisé le redressement sociodémographique sur la base de l’ensemble des répondants. Notice à la Commission des sondages – Juillet 2019 2 Les indications générales sur le sondage Nom de l’organisme ayant réalisé le sondage : OpinionWay Nom et qualité du/des commanditaire(s) du sondage : Association Paris 15 Nom et qualité de l’acheteur du sondage : Association Paris 15 « Toute personne a la droit de consulter auprès de la Commission des sondages la notice prévue par l’article 3. Cette commission rend publique cette notice sur son service de communication au public en ligne. http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/ » Notice à la Commission des sondages – Juillet 2019 3 La notice sur les marges d’erreur Les résultats présentés dans ce document sont calculés sur la base des personnes interrogées, inscrites sur les listes électorales, ou certaines d’aller voter. « Tout sondage ou enquête d’opinion est affecté de marges d’erreur. » Pour un échantillon de 602 et 373 personnes interrogées, les marges d’erreur sont les suivantes, avec un niveau de confiance de 95% : Pour un pourcentage de : 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95% +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- La marge d’erreur est de : 1,9 2,7 3,6 4,1 4,4 4,5 4,4 4,1 3,6 2,7 1,9 602 personnes 3,1 7,3 16,4 25,9 35,6 45,5 55,6 65,9 76,4 87,3 93,1 Le résultat réel se situe dans une et et et et et et et et et et et fourchette de : 6,9 12,7 23,6 34,1 44,4 54,5 64,4 74,1 83,6 92,7 96,9 +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- 373 personnes La marge d’erreur est de : 2.5 3,5 4,6 5,3 5,7 5,8 5,7 5,3 4,6 3,5 2,5 2,5 6,5 15,4 24,7 34,3 44,2 54,3 64,7 75,4 86,5 92,5 Le résultat réel se situe dans une et et et et et et et et et et et fourchette de : 7,5 13,5 24,6 35,3 45,7 55,8 65,7 75,3 84,6 93,5 97,5 Notice à la Commission des sondages – Juillet 2019 4 Le questionnaire QUESTION 1. Etes-vous satisfait ou mécontent de l’action d’Anne Hidalgo comme maire de Paris ? 1. Très satisfait 2. Assez satisfait 3. Plutôt mécontent 4. Très mécontent QUESTION 2. Etes-vous satisfait ou mécontent de l’action Philippe Goujon comme maire du 15ème arrondissement de Paris ? 1. Très satisfait 2. Assez satisfait 3. Plutôt mécontent 4. Très mécontent QUESTION 3. Vous savez qu’au printemps 2020 les élections municipales auront lieu à Paris. Si le premier tour des élections municipales avait lieu dimanche prochain, quelle est la probabilité que vous alliez voter au premier tour de cette élection ? Donnez une note de 1 à 10, 1 signifiant que vous êtes « tout à fait certain de ne pas aller voter » et 10 que vous êtes « tout à fait certain d'aller voter », les notes intermédiaires servant à nuancer votre jugement. QUESTION 4. Si le premier tour de l’élection municipale avait lieu dimanche prochain et que vous aviez le choix entre les listes suivantes dans le 15ème arrondissement, pour laquelle y aurait-il le plus de chances que vous votiez ? 1. La liste la France Insoumise soutenue par Danielle SIMONET 2. La liste du Parti Socialiste et du Parti Communiste soutenue par Anne HIDALGO 3. La liste Europe Ecologie-Les Verts soutenue par David BÉLLIARD 4. La liste « Parisiennes, Parisiens » soutenue par Gaspard GANTZER 5. La liste de La République en Marche conduite par Hugues RENSON et soutenue par Benjamin GRIVEAUX 6. La liste Les Républicains et Agir conduite par Philippe GOUJON et soutenue par Pierre-Yves BOURNAZEL 7. La liste conduite par Wallerand de SAINT-JUST et soutenue par le Rassemblement National 8. Vous voteriez blanc ou nul 9. Vous vous abstiendriez Notice à la Commission des sondages – Juillet 2019 5 Le redressement socio-démographique de l’échantillon 634 personnes Sexe Brut Redressé Hommes 41% 43% Femmes 59% 57% Age Brut Redressé 18-24 ans 9% 12% 25-34 ans 22% 23% 35-49 ans 25% 23% 50-64 ans 19% 19% 65 ans et + 25% 23% Catégorie socio-professionnelle de l’indiVidu Brut Redressé Agriculteurs, artisans, commerçants, chefs 3% 3% d’entreprise Cadres et professions intellectuelles supérieures 29% 32% Professions intermédiaires 14% 15% Employés 13% 12% Ouvriers 2% 3% Retraités 22% 20% Inactifs 17% 15% Notice à la Commission des sondages – Juillet 2019 6 Le redressement « politique » de l’échantillon 602 personnes 1er tour de la présidentielle 2017 Brut Redressé 1er tour municipal 2014 Brut Redressé Jacques Cheminade / Jean Lasalle 0% 1% La liste du Front de gauche conduite par 3% 2% Françoise GIBOTEAU Nathalie Arthaud / Philippe Poutou 1% 1% La liste du Parti Socialiste et du Parti Radical de Gauche conduite par Anne 21% 17% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13% 11% HIDALGO Benoit Hamon 6% 6% La liste Europe Ecologie-Les Verts et 7% 3% conduite par Christophe NAJDOVSKI Emmanuel Macron 36% 30% La liste UMP – UDI - MODEM conduite 25% 29% par Phillipe GOUJON François Fillon 23% 28% La liste du Front National et conduite par 2% 4% Wallerand de SAINT JUST Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2% 2% La liste PARIS 15, c’est nous ! et 1% 2% François Asselineau 1% 1% conduite par Bertand VIALLE La liste La seule liste 100% Marine Le Pen 3% 4% indépendante ! # Redynamisons notre 1% 1% 15 conduite par Julien RIPPERT Abstention, Blanc, nul 15% 16% La liste PARIS LIBERE avec Charles BEIGBEDER conduite par Géraldine 1% 1% POIRAULT-GAUVIN Abstention, Blanc, nul 39% 41% Notice à la Commission des sondages – Juillet 2019 7 Intentions de Vote premier tour Ensemble des répondants Tout à fait certains d’aller voter (602 personnes) (373 personnes) PUBLIE Socio- SD & SD & Socio- SD & SD & BRUT Demo Presid T1 BRUT Mun 2014 Demo Presid T1 Mun 2014 La liste la France Insoumise soutenue par 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% 6% Danielle SIMONET La liste du Parti Socialiste et du Parti 20% 19% 20% 18% 21% 19% 20% 20% 20% Communiste soutenue par Anne HIDALGO La liste Europe Ecologie-Les Verts soutenue 13% 16% 15% 14% 13% 15% 15% 13% 13% par David BELLIARD La liste 'Parisiennes, Parisiens' soutenue par 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% Gaspard GANTZER La liste de La République en Marche conduite par Hugues RENSON et soutenue 17% 18% 16% 15% 17% 19% 17% 17% 16% par Benjamin GRIVEAUX La liste Les Républicains et Agir conduite par Philippe GOUJON et soutenue par Pierre- 37% 38% 38% 41% 39% 38% 36% 37% 38% Yves BOURNAZEL La liste conduite par Wallerand de SAINT- JUST et soutenue par le Rassemblement 6% 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6% 5% National N’expriment pas d’intention de vote 23% 22% 23% 24% 23% 10% 10% 11% 12% Notice à la Commission des sondages – Juillet 2019 8 La satisfaction à l’égard de l’action d’Anne Hidalgo Q. Etes-vous satisfait ou mécontent de l’action d’Anne Hidalgo comme maire de 602 individus Paris ? Satisfait Mécontent 46% 49% 33% 28% 21% 13% 5% Très satisfait Assez satisfait Plutôt mécontent Très mécontent NSP Notice à la Commission des sondages – Juillet 2019 9 La satisfaction à l’égard de l’action de Philippe Goujon Q. Etes-vous satisfait ou mécontent de l’action Philippe Goujon comme maire du 15ème 602 individus arrondissement de Paris ? Satisfait Mécontent 67% 19% 33% 34% 14% 10% 9% Très satisfait Assez satisfait Plutôt mécontent Très mécontent NSP Notice à la Commission des sondages – Juillet 2019 10 15 place de la République 75003 Paris « Permettre à nos clients de comprendre de manière simple et rapide leur environnement actuel et futur, pour mieux décider aujourd’hui, agir demain et imaginer après-demain. » .
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