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2021-06-17 CLG Meeting

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2021-06-17 CLG Meeting JUNE 17, 2021 | WEBEX ISO New England Update Consumer Liaison Group Meeting Anne George VICE PRESIDENT, EXTERNAL AFFAIRS AND CORPORATE COMMUNICATIONS ISO-NE PUBLIC TODAY’S UPDATES • Resources for the Consumer Liaison Group • ISO New England participation at FERC Technical Conferences • 2021 Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT) Report • Transition to the Future Grid ISO-NE PUBLIC ISO-NE INTERNAL USE 2 CONSUMER LIAISON GROUP RESOURCES Upcoming Meetings and Events 2020 Annual Markets Report 2021 Summer Outlook ISO-NE PUBLIC ISO-NE INTERNAL USE 3 Upcoming Meetings and Activities • 2021 Consumer Liaison Group Meetings – September 9 – December 1 • Regional System Plan Public Meeting – October 6 (Virtual) ISO-NE PUBLIC 4 Average Wholesale Energy Prices Hit Record-Lows in 2020 Markets performed well and exhibited competitive outcomes in 2020 • In June, ISO New England’s Internal Market Monitor (IMM) issued the 2020 Annual Markets Report (AMR) – The IMM functions independently of ISO management and reports directly to the ISO Board of Directors • The AMR assesses the state of competition in the wholesale electricity markets administered by the ISO during the most recent operating year • The AMR also presents the most important findings, market outcomes, and market design changes of New England’s wholesale electricity markets for 2020 Note: The 2020 Annual Markets Report is available at https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2021/06/2020-annual-markets-report.pdf ISO-NE PUBLIC 5 Highlights from the 2020 Annual Markets Report New England Saw Record-low Wholesale Energy Prices and Demand • The total cost of wholesale electricity in 2020 was $8.1 billion, representing a 17% (or $1.7 billion) decrease compared to 2019 – With the exception of transmission costs (which increased by $0.2 billion), each component of wholesale costs of electricity declined in 2020 • Energy market costs totaled $3 billion in 2020, representing a 27% (or $1.1 billion) decrease compared to 2019 – Largely due to decreased natural gas prices – Natural gas prices averaged $2.10/MMBtu in 2020, down by $1.16/MMBtu on 2019 prices (representing a 36% decrease) • Capacity market costs totaled $2.7 billion in 2020, representing a 22% (or $0.7 billion) decrease compared to 2019 – Driven by lower clearing prices in Forward Capacity Auctions 10 and 11 ISO-NE PUBLIC 6 Summer Outlook Highlights • New England is expected to have adequate resources to meet peak summer demand – Peak demand for typical summer weather: 24,810 MW – Peak demand for above-average summer weather: 26,711 MW • Both forecasts take into account the demand-reducing effects of energy-efficiency measures (more than 2,600 MW) acquired through the Forward Capacity Market and behind-the-meter solar (nearly 800 MW) • New England has more than 31,000 MW of total capacity available this summer Summer Outlook Press Release: https://www.iso-ne.com/about/news-media/press-releases/ ISO-NE PUBLIC 7 Preparations for Summer Peak Demand • New England’s peak summer demand period runs from June 1 through September 30 • In preparation for the summer, ISO New England: – Forecasts New England’s demand for electricity and reserves – Evaluates the region’s summer capacity outlook – Exercises the communications plan • The ISO prepares short-term forecasts for the summer and winter seasons, taking into account estimated supplies for all resources; unplanned resource outages; imports from neighboring regions; resource retirements; and delays in commissioning new resources ISO-NE PUBLIC 8 Weather Drives Summer Peak Demand Historical and Projected Peak Demand in New England Annual Summer System Peak (MW) and temperature at time of peak* 30,000 95° 99° 28,130 95° 95° 27,707 All-time Summer Peak Demand: 28,130 MW 28,000 27,379 27,102 92° 89° 93° 93° 26,711 26,145 93° 26,111 25,880 25,899 26,000 90° 25,596 93° 25,100 89° 89° 25,121 89° 24,810 24,443 24,437 91° 24,361 23,968 24,000 22,000 20,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Typical Above weather average weather Actual Forecast *Temperature is dry-bulb temperature in degrees Fahrenheit based on weighted average of eight New England weather stations. Summer 2021 50/50 and 90/10 forecasted peaks include the demand-reducing effects of energy-efficiency measures acquired through the Forward Capacity Market and behind-the-meter solar. Sources: ISO-NE Seasonal Peaks Since 1980, 2021 CELT Forecast ISO-NE PUBLIC 9 TECHNICAL CONFERENCES ADDRESS SEVERAL ONGOING CHALLENGES IN NEW ENGLAND ISO-NE PUBLIC ISO-NE INTERNAL USE 10 Sessions on Climate Change/Extreme Weather and Grid Modernization Highlight Regional Challenges • The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) convened technical conferences on April 29 and June 1-2 • On April 29, FERC discussed the increasing electrification of various sectors, including transportation and home heating – The ISO discussed the importance of broad coordination when planning for increased economy-wide electrification – Comments related to the conference topic are due in July • FERC convened a separate conference on June 1-2 to address reliability challenges posed by climate change and extreme weather – The ISO submitted comments addressing: • Increasing energy adequacy-related challenges facing New England • Upcoming efforts to evaluate ISO-NE’s planning and operational preparedness for low probability, high impact risks from extreme weather events and contingencies (referred to as “tail risks”) ISO-NE PUBLIC 11 FERC Held Technical Conference on Resource Adequacy Through New England’s Wholesale Markets • On May 25, FERC hosted a technical conference to examine New England’s wholesale electricity markets. The session: – Explored how New England ensures resource adequacy through the Forward Capacity Market (FCM) – Examined the efficacy of the Minimum Offer Price Rule (MOPR) – Followed a similar conference for PJM Interconnection • The ISO stressed the importance of the FCM to maintain a viable fleet of capacity resources particularly during times of low output from renewable energy • The ISO filed pre-conference comments highlighting the need to understand and mitigate potential adverse impacts on regional reliability stemming from elimination of the MOPR • The ISO has committed to filing at FERC in Q1 2022 to eliminate the MOPR; intent is to run FCA #17 (2023) without MOPR ISO-NE PUBLIC 12 2021 CAPACITY, ENERGY, LOADS, AND TRANSMISSION (CELT) REPORT ISO-NE PUBLIC 13 The ISO’s Annual Forecast Report Provides a Snapshot of New England Power System • Issued on May 1, the annual Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT) Report is the primary source for assumptions used in ISO system planning studies • Overall electricity use is expected to increase by 1.1% annually • Summer peak demand is expected to remain flat over the 10-year period • Winter peak demand is forecasted to increase by 0.8% annually ISO-NE PUBLIC 14 The 2021 CELT Includes 10-Year Forecasts for Heating Electrification and Light-Duty Electric Vehicles • The ISO forecasts that by 2030: – More than 1 million electric vehicles will be deployed in New England – More than 1.1 million air-source heat pumps will be deployed in the region • Transportation electrification from EVs is forecasted to contribute 916 MW to the winter peak in 2030-2031 • Heating electrification is forecasted to contribute 1,556 MW to the winter peak in 2030-2031 • The ISO began including forecasted impacts of heating and transportation electrification on state and regional electric energy and demand in the 2020 CELT report ISO-NE PUBLIC 15 ISO’s Electrification Forecast Shows Demand Growth Electricity Demand from Electric Vehicles and Heating Sectors Over the Next Decade Transportation and Heating Forecasts: Impact on Peak Electricity Demand, 2021‒2030 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 Megawatts (MW) Megawatts 600 400 200 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030* Transportation Summer Peak Transportation Winter Peak Heating Winter Peak * Percentage of Net System Peak in 2030: Transportation – summer: 3%; Transportation – winter: 4%; Heating – winter: 7% Source: ISO New England, 2021 Capacity Energy Loads and Transportation Forecast ISO-NE PUBLIC 16 ISO New England Forecasts Strong Growth in Photovoltaic (PV) Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) December 2020 PV Cumulative Growth in PV Installed Capacity (MWac) through 2030 (MWac) 12,000 Installed No. of State Capacity 10,033 Installations 10,000 (MWac) Connecticut 682.3 53,758 8,000 Massachusetts 2,502.3 114,487 6,000 Maine 68.8 5,591 3,996 New Hampshire 125.3 10,757 4,000 Megawatts (MW) Megawatts Rhode Island 223.8 9,688 2,000 Vermont 393.5 5,328 40 New England 3,995.9 209,631 0 Jan. 2010 Dec. 2020 2030 Note: The bar chart reflects the ISO’s projections for nameplate capacity from PV resources participating in the region’s wholesale electricity markets, as well as those connected “behind the meter.” The forecast does not include forward-looking PV projects > 5 MW in nameplate capacity. Source: Final 2021 PV Forecast (April 2021); and December 2020 Distributed Generation Survey Results; MW values are AC nameplate. ISO-NE PUBLIC 17 Final 2021 PV Forecast: By State Cumulative Nameplate Installed, MWac 10,000 8,000 VT RI 6,000 NH ME 4,000 MA CT 2,000 0 Thru 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2020 Source: Final 2021 PV Forecast: https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2021/03/final_2021_pv_forecast.pdf . ISO-NE PUBLIC 18 TRANSITION TO THE FUTURE GRID UPDATE ISO-NE PUBLIC
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