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ISO New England 2019 Regional System Plan

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ISO New England 2019 Regional System Plan 2019 Regional System Plan © ISO New England Inc. OCTOBER 31, 2019 ISO-NE PUBLIC Preface ISO New England Inc. (ISO) is the not-for-profit corporation responsible for the reliable and economical operation of New England’s electric power system. It also administers the region’s wholesale electricity markets and manages the comprehensive planning of the regional power system. The planning process includes the periodic preparation of a Regional System Plan (RSP) in accordance with the ISO’s Open Access Transmission Tariff (OATT) and other parts of the Transmission, Markets, and Services Tariff (the ISO tariff), approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Regional System Plans meet the tariff requirements by summarizing planning activities that include the following: • Forecasts of annual energy use and peak loads (i.e., the demand for electricity) for a 10-year planning horizon and the need for resources (i.e., capacity) • Information about the amounts, locations, and characteristics of market responses (e.g., generation or demand resources or elective transmission upgrades) that can meet the defined system needs—systemwide and in specific areas • Descriptions of transmission projects for the region that meet the identified needs, as summarized in an RSP Project List, which includes information on project status and cost estimates and is updated several times each year. RSPs also must summarize the ISO’s coordination of its system plans with those of neighboring systems, the results of economic studies of the New England power system, and information that can be used for improving the design of the regional wholesale electricity markets. In addition to these requirements, RSPs identify other actions taken by the ISO, state officials, regional policymakers, participating transmission owners (PTOs), New England Power Pool (NEPOOL) members, market participants, and other stakeholders to meet or modify the needs of the system. The regional system planning process in New England is open and transparent and reflects advisory input from regional stakeholders, particularly members of the Planning Advisory Committee (PAC), according to the requirements specified in the OATT. The PAC is open to all entities interested in regional system planning activities in New England. The ISO appreciates the robust input provided by stakeholders, which makes this report possible. The 2019 Regional System Plan (RSP19) and the regional system planning process identify the region’s electricity needs and plans for meeting these needs for 2019 through 2028. RSP19 updates the RSP17 report by discussing study proposals, scopes of work, assumptions, draft and final study results, and other materials. RSP19 also identifies key electric power system issues the region faces and how they can be addressed. RSP19 planning activities were reviewed at PAC meetings held from September 2017 through August 2019. The ISO also posted to its website PAC presentations, meeting minutes, reports, study base cases, databases, and other materials for stakeholder review and use. On August 8, 2019, the ISO and the PAC discussed stakeholder comments on an earlier draft of RSP19, and the ISO held a public meeting on September 12, 2019, to discuss RSP19 and other planning issues facing the New England region. Through the planning process, the ISO demonstrates compliance with all planning criteria and regulatory requirements. As required by the OATT Attachment K, the ISO New England Board of Directors has approved the 2019 Regional System Plan. 2019 Regional System Plan Page iii ISO-NE PUBLIC Contents 2019 Regional System Plan Page v ISO-PUBLIC 2019 Regional System Plan Page vi ISO-PUBLIC 2019 Regional System Plan Page vii ISO-PUBLIC 2019 Regional System Plan Page viii ISO-PUBLIC 2019 Regional System Plan Page ix ISO-PUBLIC Figures Figure 2-1: ISO New England system planning process. ........................................................................................... 25 Figure 2-2: Key facts about New England’s electric power system and wholesale electricity markets. .................. 28 Figure 2-3: RSP19 geographic scope of the New England electric power system.................................................... 32 Figure 2-4: Wholesale load zones in New England. ................................................................................................. 33 Figure 2-5: Dispatch zones for active demand capacity resources in the ISO New England system. ...................... 34 Figure 2-6: Capacity zones to be modeled for FCA 14. ............................................................................................ 35 Figure 3-1: The ISO’s historical summer gross peak loads (reconstituted to include the megawatt reductions from active demand resources, EE, and BTM PV) and the 50/50 and 90/10 forecasts, 1992 to 2018 (MW). ............................................................................................................................... 40 Figure 3-2: Cumulative New England PV forecast for each classification of PV, 2019 to 2028 (MW). .................... 43 Figure 3-3: RSP19 gross annual energy-use forecast; gross energy forecast minus BTM PV; gross energy forecast net of EE and BTM PV for 2019 to 2028 (MW). ....................................................................... 45 Figure 3-4: RSP19 gross summer peak demand forecast (90/10); gross demand forecast minus BTM PV; and net of EE and BTM PV demand forecast for 2019 to 2028 (MW). .................................................. 45 Figure 3-5: RSP19 gross winter peak demand forecast (90/10); gross demand forecast minus BTM PV; and net of EE and BTM PV demand forecast for 2019 to 2028 (MW). .................................................. 46 Figure 4-1: Comparison of cleared new summer and winter energy-efficiency resources by capacity commitment period, CCP 2010/2011 to CCP 2022/2023 (MW). .......................................................... 58 Figure 4-2: Summary of new capacity additions and retirements clearing in each FCA, for FCA 8 to FCA 13 (MW). ..................................................................................................................................... 60 Figure 4-3: Capacity of generation-interconnection requests by load zone, November 1997 to April 2019 (MW). ............................................................................................................................... 72 Figure 4-4: Resources active in the ISO interconnection queue, by state and fuel type, as of April 1, 2019 (MW and %). .......................................................................................................................................... 73 Figure 4-5: Resources active in the ISO interconnection queue, by fuel type in each load zone, as of April 1, 2019 (MW). ................................................................................................................................ 73 Figure 5-1: Key study areas in New England. ........................................................................................................... 83 Figure 6-1: FCA 13 Import capacity supply obligation by interface and generation type (MW). ........................... 112 Figure 7-1: New England’s generator winter seasonal claimed capability (MW, %) and annual electric energy production (GWh, %) by fuel type for 2018. ........................................................................................ 115 Figure 7-2: New England generator winter capability by fuel type based on the 2019 CELT Report, the interconnection queue, and FCM-cleared capacity for 2019, 2023 and 2028 (MW, %). ..................... 116 Figure 7-3: Map of natural gas infrastructure serving New England (operating pipelines, LNG import terminals, and gas hub pricing points in New England). ...................................................................... 118 Figure 7-4: Natural gas supply basins in the continental United States, May 2019. .............................................. 118 Figure 7-5: Natural gas interstate pipeline network in the continental United States, May 2019. ....................... 119 Figure 7-6: Monthly average natural gas prices and real-time Hub LMPs compared with regional natural gas prices, March 2003 to March 2019 ($/MWh; $/MMbtu). ................................................. 122 2019 Regional System Plan Page x ISO-PUBLIC Figure 7-7: Natural gas market data, April 2014 to April 2019 ($/MMBtu). .......................................................... 123 Figure 7-8: Comparison of LNG deliveries for winter 2014/2015 through winter 2018/2019 (MMcf). ................. 125 Figure 7-9: Shifting generation mix before and during the cold spell of winter 2017/2018 (%)............................ 127 Figure 8-1: Estimated systemwide annual water withdrawals by fuel type in New England, 2016 to 2018 (billions of gallons). .............................................................................................................................. 136 Figure 8-2: Estimated systemwide daily water withdrawals by fuel type in New England, 2016 to 2018 (billions of gallons). .............................................................................................................................. 137 Figure 8-3: Summer claimed capability and cooling technology type in New England, 2018 (MW). .................... 138 Figure 8-4: New England state goals for reducing in greenhouse gas emissions (percentage reduction in GHGs economywide
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