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ISO-NE Public To: NECPUC From: Eric Johnson, Director, External Affairs, ISO New England Date: May 28, 2021 Subject: Update on R

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ISO-NE Public To: NECPUC From: Eric Johnson, Director, External Affairs, ISO New England Date: May 28, 2021 Subject: Update on R memo To: NECPUC From: Eric Johnson, Director, External Affairs, ISO New England Date: May 28, 2021 Subject: Update on Recent and Upcoming Regional Activities The ISO’s External Affairs Department prepares this memo to provide updates on regional energy issues. It includes stakeholder and industry meetings that may be of interest. • ISO Releases Summer 2021 Forecast; Expects Adequate Electricity Supplies for Upcoming Season • Final 2021 Forecasts Released for Energy Efficiency, Solar/PV Investment, and Transportation and Home Heating Electrification, as Part of the ISO’s Annual Forecast Report • Federal Affairs Update • Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Update • ISO New England Reviews Updated 2021 ISO Work Plan • Markets Committee Update • Pathways to the Future Grid Analysis Continues • Planning Advisory Committee Update • Consumer Liaison Group to Meet June 17 • Environmental Advisory Group Update • ISO New England to Present Preliminary 2022 Budget to State Agencies • Behind-the-Meter Solar Data to be Added to ISO Express Dashboard • Milder Weather and Lower Natural Gas Prices Drive Lower LMPs • Upcoming NEPOOL Committee Meetings and NECPUC Call Schedule • External Conferences and Meetings of Interest ISO-NE Public ISO New England Inc. One Sullivan Road, Holyoke, MA 01040-2841 www.iso-ne.com T 413 540 4515 F 413 535 4379 NECPUC Update May 2021 Page 2 of 9 ISO Releases Summer 2021 Forecast; Expects Adequate Electricity Supplies for Upcoming Season On May 24, ISO New England released its summer 2021 electricity forecast, and noted that “New England should have the resources necessary to meet consumer demand for electricity under both average and above-average temperatures this summer.” Under typical weather conditions (the 50/50 forecast), the ISO predicts a peak electricity demand of approximately 24,810 megawatts (MW); however, that peak would rise to 26,711 MW during a stretch of above-average summer weather (the 90/10 forecast). The ISO expects in excess of 31,000 MW of capacity to be available this summer, and incorporates the effect of more than 2,600 MW of non-dispatchable energy-efficiency measures into the summer forecast. The ISO’s forecast also includes the expected effect of more than 800 MW in peak-load reduction from the region’s behind-the-meter photovoltaic installations. The seasonal forecasts do not account for unprecedented, extreme conditions. The ISO is currently assessing ways to plan and prepare for these types of low-probability, high-impact events. The ISO has also released a two-page 2021 Summer Outlook at-a-glance. ISO Conducts Summer Communications and Outreach Training On May 20, the ISO held its biannual training for federal and state government officials on the ISO’s communications plan for power system emergencies. The plan is triggered by various ISO operating procedures, including actions during a capacity deficiency (shortage of operating reserves) and during an emergency (implementation of controlled power outages). The training serves as a reminder of the outreach the ISO will undertake during system emergencies. (In late fall the ISO conducts a similar training that looks ahead to the coming winter.) The May 20 session also included a presentation from the Northeast Power Coordinating Council to review its summer forecast. The ISO also reminds the various agencies and organizations on the call to provide the ISO with updated contact information so the relevant personnel receive information during these types of events. BACK TO TOP Final 2021 Forecasts Released for Energy Efficiency, Solar/PV Investment, and Transportation and Home Heating Electrification, as Part of the ISO’s Annual Forecast Report Recently, ISO New England finalized and released four, 10-year forecasts for various investments in technologies affecting demand for electricity on the bulk power system. • The 2021 Energy Efficiency Forecast captures current and expected investments in a variety of energy efficiency technologies in New England. After netting out expiring efficiency measures, the ISO forecasts an average annual energy savings of 763 gigawatt (GWh) hours in New England through 2030 due to these investments. • The 2021 PV (Photovoltaic) Forecast estimates the growth in solar/PV resources in the region. The ISO develops the forecast with stakeholder input through the Distributed Generation Forecast Working Group. The most recent forecast predicts that by 2030, New England will boast 10,032 MW (nameplate) of solar/PV resources, a substantial increase from just under 4,000 MW (nameplate) in 2020. ISO-NE Public NECPUC Update May 2021 Page 3 of 9 • The 2021 Heating Electrification Forecast seeks to identify the increase in load due to the electrification of home heating technologies, specifically air-source heat pumps (ASHP). The forecast predicts that during the upcoming decade New England will see the installation of 1.17 million heat pumps. Because of this investment, the ISO estimates that by 2030 the region will experience an increase of 2,526 GWh in annual electricity demand. • The 2021 Transportation Electrification Forecast captures the effect of charging light-duty cars and trucks on the bulk power system. Within ten years, it is expected that the over 1 million light-duty electric vehicles in New England will increase peak load in the winter by 916 MW (Winter 2030/2031). The ISO incorporates the results of these studies in the gross and net load forecasts contained in the ISO’s annual Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT) Report, released on April 30. The CELT report presents a range of data about the bulk power system in New England – data used as assumptions in power system planning and operations reliability studies. The 2021 CELT Report reflects demographic, economic, and market information available from 2021 through winter 2030-2031, including the scheduled and proposed transmission changes, project listings, and summaries of future resources. In order to illustrate the impact of electrification and other emerging trends on the bulk electric system over time, the ISO has created a new prototype Excel file to accompany the CELT report. The first iteration includes the impact of heating and transportation electrification on summer and winter seasonal peaks, broken down by state and the region. The file is available on the Load Forecast page of the ISO’s website. BACK TO TOP Federal Affairs Update Committee Action Continues in Congress • The Director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) testified during a May 14 hearing before the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee on offshore energy development, highlighting the Administration’s goal to develop 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030 and BOEM’s leasing activities along the East Coast. • The House Energy & Commerce Committee held a wide-ranging hearing on a variety of energy- related topics while discussing the upcoming budget for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) on May 19. The House Appropriations Committee heard from U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm as well on DOE’s annual budget request on May 6. BACK TO TOP ISO-NE Public NECPUC Update May 2021 Page 4 of 9 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Update Commission Holds Technical Conference on Resource Adequacy in New England On May 25, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) held a full-day technical conference on ISO New England’s wholesale energy markets – specifically, how New England ensures resource adequacy through the Forward Capacity Market (FCM) and the efficacy of the Minimum Offer Price Rule (MOPR). As part of its focus on the future of the MOPR in several ISO/RTO regions, FERC has already held a similar technical conference focused on resource adequacy in the PJM Interconnection and anticipates scheduling a session for the New York ISO as well. ISO New England filed a pre-conference statement available on the ISO website. Several senior members from ISO New England, including ISO President & CEO Gordon van Welie, participated in the session. ISO participants highlighted the importance of the Forward Capacity Market (FCM) as critical to maintaining a viable fleet of capacity assets, as well as the need to account for the adverse impact on regional reliability if the MOPR is eliminated without addressing the uncertainty and increased risk to existing and new merchant resources in the FCM. Several weeks before the technical conference, ISO New England announced that it has asked the ISO’s External Market Monitor to help provide a framework to assess and quantify the effect on new or existing resources in a market without a MOPR. The ISO plans to take the proposal to eliminate the MOPR through the regional stakeholder process in anticipation of a planned filing with the Commission in the first quarter of 2022 (in time for any changes to be in place for FCA #17, planned for February 2023). On May 17, the ISO released a memo to the New England states providing additional background, as well as outlining a tentative work schedule for the coming months. The memo notes that the NEPOOL Markets Committee will begin a substantive discussion about the MOPR elimination during its meetings on June 8-9. The May 17 memo also noted “the ISO believes further changes will be needed in the FCM” and that “a key FCM enhancement is related to accurately reflecting the contribution of all resource technologies to resource adequacy. Discussions related to these changes will also begin in June; however, given the relatively early stage of this effort and the scope of work, these changes will not be included in the MOPR package for FCA 17.” ISO-NE Files Answer Regarding FCA #16’s Offer Review Trigger Price On May 13, ISO New England filed comments with the Commission to provide additional support on the merits of its determination of an appropriate Offer Review Trigger Price (ORTP) for Forward Capacity Market #16 scheduled for February 2022. On April 7, the ISO and NEPOOL filed separate proposals on ORTP-related values for FCA #16.
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