Draft Economic Analysis of Critical Habitat Designation for the Western Snowy Plover

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Draft Economic Analysis of Critical Habitat Designation for the Western Snowy Plover DRAFT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CRITICAL HABITAT DESIGNATION FOR THE WESTERN SNOWY PLOVER July 20, 2005 Draft – July 20, 2005 This page intentionally left blank. Prepared for: Division of Economics U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 4401 N. Fairfax Drive Arlington, VA 22203 Prepared By: Industrial Economics, Incorporated 2067 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02140 Draft – July 20, 2005 This page intentionally left blank. Draft – July 20, 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...........................................................................................ES-1 1 FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS...................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Approach to Estimating Economic Effects.............................................. 1-2 1.2 Scope of the Analysis............................................................................... 1-6 1.3 Analytic Time Frame ............................................................................. 1-10 1.4 Information Sources............................................................................... 1-10 1.5 Structure of Report................................................................................. 1-11 2 BACKGROUND AND SOCIOECONOMIC OVERVIEW............................... 2-1 2.1 Description of Species and Habitat.......................................................... 2-1 2.2 Background of Western Snowy Plover Critical Habitat Designation .............................................................................................. 2-2 2.3 Proposed Critical Habitat Designation..................................................... 2-2 2.4 Socioeconomic Profile of the Critical Habitat Area .............................. 2-11 3 ADMINISTRATIVE AND IMPLEMENTATION COSTS OF MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES.......................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Summary of Plover Management Costs .................................................. 3-3 3.2 Habitat Management Activities............................................................... 3-7 3.3 Administrative Costs.............................................................................. 3-17 4 POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS TO RECREATION ACTIVITIES............................................................................. 4-1 4.1 Summary of Findings............................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Background.............................................................................................. 4-6 4.3 Estimating the Loss Associated with Reduced Recreational Opportunities.......................................................................................... 4-16 4.4 Method One – Welfare Losses Associated with Fewer Beach Trips..... 4-25 4.5 Method Two – Welfare Losses Associated with Diminished Beach Trips............................................................................................ 4-44 4.6 Regional Economic Impacts .................................................................. 4-52 4.7 Caveats................................................................................................... 4-57 Draft – July 20, 2005 5 POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS TO RESIDENTIAL AND RELATED DEVELOPMENT ........................................ 5-1 5.1 Methodology............................................................................................ 5-1 5.2 Summary of Results................................................................................. 5-3 5.3 Development in Potential Critical Habitat in California.......................... 5-4 5.4 Development in Potential Critical Habitat in Oregon............................ 5-24 5.5 Development in Potential Critical Habitat in Washington .................... 5-32 6 POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS TO MILITARY FACILITIES AND MINING OPERATIONS..................................................... 6-1 6.1 Summary of Impacts................................................................................ 6-1 6.2 Impact to Military Facilities..................................................................... 6-3 6.3 Impacts to Gravel Mining ...................................................................... 6-18 APPENDIX A: SMALL ENTITIES AND ENERGY IMPACTS ANALYSES............ A-1 APPENDIX B: IMPACTS TO ALL ACTIVITIES BY UNIT .......................................B-1 APPENDIX C: MANAGEMENT IMPACTS BY UNIT................................................C-1 APPENDIX D: RECREATIONAL IMPACTS BY UNIT............................................. D-1 APPENDIX E: DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS BY UNIT ...............................................E-1 APPENDIX F: IMPACTS ON MILITARY LANDS BY UNIT ....................................F-1 APPENDIX G: MINING IMPACTS BY UNIT ............................................................ G-1 APPENDIX H: COMPARISON OF UNIT RANKINGS .............................................. H-1 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................R-1 Draft – July 20, 2005 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction 1. The purpose of this report is to identify and analyze the potential economic impacts associated with the proposed critical habitat designation for the western snowy plover (plover) (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus). This report was prepared by Industrial Economics, Incorporated (IEc), under contract to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s (Service) Division of Economics. 2. The proposed plover designation includes 17,299 acres within 35 units. The Service proposed critical habitat for portions of plover breeding and wintering habitat in Washington, Oregon, and California. In addition, the Service identified 1,638 acres of habitat for possible inclusion in critical habitat. These areas are currently unoccupied or were unoccupied at the time of the listing, and the Service requests comment on whether these areas are essential to the conservation of the population. Essential habitat proposed for exclusion pursuant to section 4(b)(2) of the Endangered Species Act (the Act) includes 2,898 acres. These six areas are proposed for exclusion, because they are protected by existing conservation and management plans, management plans are being prepared for these areas, or the areas are military installations. Exhibits ES-1 through ES-3 provide maps of the potential critical habitat for the plover. These maps also show the density of urban population in proximity to potential habitat. 3. Of the total critical habitat acres proposed for designation, roughly 70 percent are located in California. Of the proposed acres, 26 percent are Federal lands, 51 percent are State lands, and the remaining 23 percent are private lands. ES-1 Draft – July 20, 2005 Exhibit ES-1 Western Snowy Plover Potential Critical Habitat: Washington and Oregon ES-2 Draft – July 20, 2005 Exhibit ES-2 Western Snowy Plover Potential Critical Habitat: Northern California ES-3 Draft – July 20, 2005 Exhibit ES-3 Western Snowy Plover Potential Critical Habitat: Southern California ES-4 Draft – July 20, 2005 4. Exhibit ES-4 summarizes key findings of the analysis. Analytic results are presented in greater detail later in this summary (see Exhibits ES-6 and ES-7). Exhibit ES-4 KEY FINDINGS1 Total impacts: Future costs (from 2005 through 2025) at proposed critical habitat units are estimated to be $272.8 to $645.3 million on a present value basis and $514.9 to $1,222.7 million expressed in constant dollars. Each range is primarily the result of alternative methods for valuing beach recreation losses. Activities most impacted: The activities affected by plover protection efforts may include recreation, plover management, real estate development, military base operations, and gravel extraction. ♦ Recreational losses dominate the costs. In present value terms, future costs are estimated to range from $244.4 million to $611.1 million. The costs are driven by the lost pedestrian and equestrian opportunities. ♦ Future costs associated with managing the critical habitat units range from $18.3 million to $23.0 million in present value terms. ♦ Future costs to military institutions total roughly $9.1 million in present value terms. Units with greatest impacts: Over three quarters of all future costs are associated with five southern California units: Monterey to Moss Landing (CA-12C), Pismo Beach/Nipomo (CA-16), Morro Bay Beach (CA-15C), Jetty Road to Aptos (CA-12A), and Silver Strand (CA-27C). These areas generally include large tracts of proposed habitat and/or extensive management activities (e.g., fencing), as well as large public beach facilities. Framework for the Analysis and Regulatory Alternatives Considered 5. Section 4(b)(2) of the Endangered Species Act (Act) requires the Service to designate critical habitat on the basis of the best scientific data available, after taking into consideration the economic impact, and any other relevant impact, of specifying any particular area as critical habitat. The Service may exclude areas from critical habitat designation when the benefits of exclusion outweigh the benefits of including the areas within critical habitat, provided the exclusion will not result in extinction of the species.2 In addition, this analysis provides information to allow the Service to address the requirements of Executive Orders 12866 and 13211, and the Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA), as amended by the Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act (SBREFA).3 This report also complies with direction from the U.S. 10th Circuit
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