An Ounce of Nuclear January 11, 2016 Prevention: A Window into Japanese Evacuation Planning for Nuclear Accidents By Yukari Sekiguchi, Program Coordinator and Research Associate Introduction In the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear other cases of Japanese policy, the accident, 98,000 people left their homes responsibilities are murky. While towns and under Japanese government orders to prefectures plan for evacuations, they have evacuate.1 Many of them did not know what demanded that the central government take had happened at the plant until the responsibility for actual responses. evacuation notice. Those living within a 3km radius were the first to go on March 11, 2011. This has been the case of Ikata Town and As the seriousness of the accident became Ehime Prefecture, home to the Ikata Nuclear apparent, the areas of evacuation were Power Plant. In fact, Ehime Governor gradually expanded. Thus, many residents Tokihiro Nakamura and Ikata Mayor were forced to re-evacuate to other places Kazuhiko Yamashita made the restart of several times without accurate information their reactors contingent on the central from the Japanese government. There were government asserting responsibility. This no preparations in place for wider-area seemed to be more important than actual evacuations.2 proof that evacuation plans were sufficient. In fact, just days before the Japanese The 2011 accident highlighted the need for government held a drill to test evacuation better evacuation planning and in 2012, the plans, Governor Nakamura and Ikata Town Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA) Mayor Yamashita approved the restart of requested that municipalities lying within the local reactors. This raises several 30km from the nuclear power plant questions: Should evacuation plans be formulate evacuation plans. However, as in required to license the operation of reactors 1 "福島の復興に向けた取組."Reconstruction 2 "第４部 被害の状況と被害拡大の要因.”The Agency. July 7, 2015. National Diet of Japan Fukushima Nuclear Accident http://www.reconstruction.go.jp/topics/main- Independent Investigation Commission. October 25, cat1/sub-cat1- 2012. 1/20150707_jikankouenshiryo_douyuukai.pdf http://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/3856371/nai ic.go.jp/pdf/naiic_honpen_honbun4.pdf 1 (as they are in the United States)? Did local accident occurs, prevent the situation from politicians serve their constituents well? worsening.34 What is an appropriate formula for sharing responsibilities in nuclear matters in Japan? As the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident Figure 1 Ikata Town. Source: Ikata Town Web. What are the Nuclear Emergency Response demonstrated, nuclear emergency Guidelines? preparedness in Japan clearly had several In 2012, the NRA formulated the Nuclear gaps including the lack of detailed Emergency Response Guidelines for nuclear evacuation plans for the public, education disaster evacuation measures. Local and training, and an adequate emergency government and municipalities had to revise response system. 5 their local disaster management plans to respond to incidents involving radiation. Since 2011, Japan has added two elements into the “Defense in Depth” concept: severe Nuclear disaster prevention measures are accident response and emergency response based on the International Atomic Energy against accidental radiation release. To Agency (IAEA) concept “Defense in Depth.” cover the latter element, local government In order to maintain safety of nuclear power and municipalities have created local plants, “Defense in Depth” advocates disaster management plans.6 multiple safety measures. In Japan, “Defense in Depth” was designed to prevent accidents, Previous guidelines required evacuation prevent expansion of accidents, and if an plans for people living within 8km of a nuclear power plant site. Since Fukushima, 3 Koike, Takuji. "新規制基準と原子力発電所の再稼 and fifth levels for emergency planning and 働.”ISSUE BRIEF, no. 840 (2015). adequate emergency response system after the http://dl.ndl.go.jp/view/download/digidepo_889127 Fukushima accident. 0_po_0840.pdf?contentNo=1. 5 "原子力災害対策指針.”NRA. October 31, 4 The Defense in Depth comprises five levels. Before 2012.https://www.nsr.go.jp/data/000024441.pdf. the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan focused on 6 "原子力発電の防災対策." levels one through three, which were for plant http://www.kepco.co.jp/corporate/info/pr/el_mess design, but highlighted the importance of the fourth age/pdf/elme1_p30.pdf. 2 that zone has been expanded to 30 km, Ikata Nuclear Power Plant and evacuation partly in response to the Diet’s Independent plan Investigation Commission report which Ikata Town is located in southwestern Ehime stated that the Japanese government Prefecture, Japan. The total population is 10, provided little information for residents, 238 and almost half of the population are forcing them to decide for themselves senior citizens. The major industries in Ikata whether or not to evacuate. Moreover, as Town include citrus cultivation and coastal the accident worsened, the Japanese fisheries. 11 The Ikata Nuclear Power Plant, government frequently expanded the which is owned by Shikoku Electric Power evacuation zone. Evacuation orders for Company (EPCO), started operating in 1977. 30km away from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear The Ikata No.3 reactor suspended Power Plant were delayed about a month operations in April 2011, following the NRA’s due to slow decision-making by the new safety assessment after the Fukushima Government Nuclear Emergency Response Daiichi nuclear accident. Headquarters. 7 Still, only three of ten municipalities received evacuation orders About 55 companies and a total 1,450 from the central government. And when people work at the Ikata Nuclear Power 12 municipalities issued evacuation orders, only Plant. The Ikata Nuclear Power Plant has 40-60% of residents received them.8 Clearly, three reactors. The No.3 reactor is one of this situation needed to be improved. four reactors that uses mixed oxide (MOX) fuel in Japan – fuel that combines plutonium The new NRA guidelines now require and uranium in oxide form. This detail is municipalities to define measures, routes, important because both the government and an evacuation destination9 for residents and industry are keen on restarting reactors living in both the Precautionary Action Zone that use MOX so that they can demonstrate (5km away from nuclear power plant) and the need to start up the brand new Rokkasho the Urgent Protective Action Planning Zone Reprocessing Plant (RRP). 13 RRP was (5-30km away from nuclear power plant).10 expected to operate by October 2013, but its 7 "第４部 被害の状況と被害拡大の要因.”The 10 Fuketa, Toyoshi. "Nuclear Regulation Authority - National Diet of Japan Fukushima Nuclear Accident Overview, Timeline for Establishment, Current and Independent Investigation Commission. October 25, Future Plans -." November 27, 2012. http://nas- 2012. sites.org/fukushima/files/2012/10/NASFuketa.pdf. http://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/3856371/nai 11 "愛媛県で暮らそう！えひめ移住支援ポータル ic.go.jp/pdf/naiic_honpen_honbun4.pdf. サイト."Ikata Town. 8第４部 被害の状況と被害拡大の要因.”The http://www.e-iju.net/city/20070830143432.php. National Diet of Japan Fukushima Nuclear Accident 12 "原子力技術・人材の維持について." 原子力技 Independent Investigation Commission. October 25, 術・人材の維持について. 電気事業連合会. 2012. August 7, 2014. http://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/3856371/nai http://www.meti.go.jp/committee/sougouenergy/d ic.go.jp/pdf/naiic_honpen_honbun4.pdf. enkijigyou/genshiryoku/pdf/004_04_01.pdf. 9 Local governments in the PAZ and UPZ use new 13 Yukari Sekiguchi,” Politics and Japan's Rokkasho NRA guidelines to formulate evacuation plans, but Reprocessing Plant,” Policy Perspectives Series, these are not subject to NRA inspections or to Center for Strategic and International Studies. central government review. September 14, 2014. 3 opening has been delayed. If brought online, Area17 to evacuate at the same time as those it would produce four tons of plutonium in the 5km zone around the plant (the annually for MOX fuel. As of July 2015, Japan Precautionary Action Zone).18 According to owns roughly 47.8 tons of plutonium. 14 the Ehime Prefecture, it will take more than When RRP starts full operation, the stockpile 16 hours for 5,000 residents to be sent by will increase. Thus, restarting MOX reactors commercial ships. If the Maritime Self- like the Ikata No.3 reactor will be key in Defense Force ship is used in addition to keeping Japan’s plutonium balance from commercial ships, it will take four and a half growing radically. hours. Ikata Town falls within the 30km radius of An evacuation plan remains essential for the nuclear power plant and is now required Ikata Town because the town rests near the to demonstrate an evacuation plan for a Nankai Trough, which runs from the severe nuclear accident. The Sadamisaki Shizuoka Prefecture to the Miyazaki Peninsula poses particular challenges, Prefecture. This Nankai Trough could however, because the nuclear power plant generate a large-scale earthquake in the blocks residents from heading inland, near future and cause immense damage. In leaving them with few exit options. A March 2014, the Japanese Cabinet Office working team established in September requested Ikata Town to reinforce the 2013 discovered this after an evacuation drill evacuation plan against a tsunami triggered in October 2013.1516 by the Nankai Trough earthquake. According to the Japanese government’s estimation, After the drill, Ehime Prefecture realized that the Nankai Trough earthquake would the 5,000 residents at the tip of the headland generate a 4.2 - 13.7 meter tsunami which would need to be evacuated by sea and air. would reach the Mitsukue and Misaki In February 2014, the Ehime Prefecture and harbors in Ikata Town.19The Great East Japan the working team revised their evacuation Earthquake, generated a 2.9 meter tsunami plans for these 5,000 residents living in what that reached Matsushima, Miyagi is known as the Preventive Evacuation Prefecture 20 , and swept up 26 out of 73 http://csis.org/publication/politics-and-japans- http://www.city.nagaoka.niigata.jp/shisei/cate01/nu rokkasho-reprocessing-plant-0 clear-safety/file/kensyu_20150127-03.pdf. 14 "Japan's Plutonium." Cabinet Office, Government 18 "愛媛県広域避難計画の修正について（平成 27 of Japan.