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International Policy Forum 11 March 2014 Approval Ratings- Can You See the Pattern?

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International Policy Forum 11 March 2014 Approval Ratings- Can You See the Pattern? International Policy Forum 11 March 2014 Approval Ratings- can you see the pattern? 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute Abe’s approval ratings: better than last time 70 60 50 40 A be 1 A be 2 30 20 10 0 Source: NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute In comparison to past prime ministers 80 70 60 A be 50 N oda Kan 40 H atoyam a 30 Aso Fukuda 20 10 0 Source: NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute Approval rating – LDP and Cabinet 90 Cabinet Approval Rating Ruling Party Approval Rating 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute Abe is performing on par with Koizumi this far 90" Koizumi" 80" Abe1" Abe2" 70" 60" 50" 40" 30" 20" 10" 0" Source: NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute But still dependent on New Komeito in the upper house LDP Komeito Your Party DPJ SDP Japan Future Party Daichi 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% LDP Komeito Your Party DPJ SDP Japan Future Party 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Bills for the 186th diet session Ministry of Internal Affairs and Ministry of Economy, Trade and Cabinet Office Communications Industry • Revision of Radio Act to • Bill to extend export credit • Bill to Establish Medical adjust fees for use of radio insurance coverage to trade Strategy Promotion Bureau frequency with overseas subsidiaries • Bill to reform Nuclear • Revision of the Broadcasting • Promotion of city centers - a Damage Liability Act and Radio Act to add new boost for retail? Facilitation Fund (to add Internet broadcasting as a • Introduction of registration system for electricity suppliers ability to fund duty of NHK and to ease decommissioning) (first step towards retail conditions for receiving liberalization) and a system broadcasting license Time: End February • Various measure to promote for trade in electricity futures “e-governance”. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport Timing: March Ministry of Education, Culture, and Tourism Sports, Science and Technology • Revision of Building Standards Law to facilitate large scale construction using Financial Services Agency • Revision of Copyright Act to wood • Revision of Financial include copyrights of material Instruments Exchange Law to transmitted over the Internet, in Timing: End of March clarify rules on crowd accordance with the Beijing financing and financial Treaty disclosure rules for listed Ministry of Health Labor & Welfare companies Timing: End of March • New Law stipulating cost sharing for medical Timing: Mid-March treatment of incurable diseases Ministry of Justice • Revision of Child Welfare Law • Bill to establish new corporate Consumer Affairs Agency • Revision of Industrial Safety and Health Act form under which foreign (excludes passive smoking provisions) • Revision of Act Against lawyers (gaiben) can work as Unjustifiable Premiums and employees Timing Mid- to late February Misleading Representations to • Revision of immigration law to introduce penalty for facilitate entry of highly skilled • Revision of Dispatch Law to improve misleading representations labor into Japan – new visa conditions for dispatched employees categories and immigration Timing: End February procedures Timing: Mid March Other interesting bills considered (giin rippo) ¡ Bill to establish Integrated Resorts (IR) ¡ Bill to promote protection against passive smoking ¡ Bill to improve access to information held by public entities ¡ Basic Allergy Measures Bill ¡ Bill to introduce a regional governance system ¡ Revision of the Money Lending Business Law and Investment Law to raise or loosen cap on consumer finance lending ¡ Bill to permit use of dormant bank accounts ¡ Government Pension Investment Fund reform bill ¡ Regenerative Medicine Basic Law Next round of growth strategy ¡ Implementation plan for first phase just approved by LDP, deciding that first measures should be implemented by 2015 ¡ Application for special growth strategy zones in short term. New measures on special zones also being considered ¡ Continued focus on corporate tax rate cut ¡ Relaxed rules for labor immigration also considered, especially given need for construction in run up to 2020 ¡ Further measures to promote women’s participation in the labor force ¡ New form of non-profit medical corporations ¡ Continued discussion on rules for allowing mixed treatments (covered or not covered by NHI) ¡ ICT Promotion within health care ¡ Food export promotion measures Growth Policy Framework – Government Side Cabinet Japan Economic Council of Economic Recovery Headquarters and Fiscal Policies Control tower within the PM’s Office, to co-ordinate policies to regain Japan’s economic strength, Within the Cabinet Office, to correct over-valued yen, and end formulate and coordinate fiscal deflationary spiral via unified and economic policy under growth strategy. All members are Link leadership of the PM. members of the Cabinet. Cabinet and private-sector Industrial CompeCCveness members as well as Bank of Japan Council Governor To help formulate new growth strategy – members are Cabinet members or from the private sector.” Link Link Cabinet Office Revitalizaon Secretariat Regulatory Reform Council, Science & Technology Council, People’s Council on Social Security Reform Growth Strategy Formulation process Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Industrial Competitivenes 1/21 2/4 2/28 s Council Regulatory 1/21 2/4 2/28 Reform Council Science & Technology Council 1/17 1/24 CEFP 1/20 2/20 Preliminary conclusions Snapshot political analysis ¡ Fast passage of budget – quickest passage in past 10 years ¡ Loss of Tokyo gubernational election has made the opposition close to obsolete ¡ Little or no focus on content of bills could provide room for discussion on foreign policy and Abe’s pet issues ¡ A clear feeling of having turned the corner on energy policy debate, pace of restarts likely to pick up ¡ Growth policy somehow in the background but may re-enter the discussion as June approaches ¡ Abe still has a lot of cards to play, should popularity drop. Major cabinet re-shuffle still possible. Political Schedule moving forward n March 6: China National People’s Congress 11: Third-year memorial of the Great East Japan Earthquake 18-19: First FMOC Chaired by Jannet Yellen n April 1: Consumption Tax Raise 11-13: Annual meetings of World Bank Groups and IMF 27: Bye-election 30: BOJ Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices ? Obama visit to East Asia – Possible US-Japan summit meeting ? Change interpretation of Japan’s right of collective self-defense? n May 21-23: World Economic Forum Asia Sadayuki Sakakibara starts as new chairman of Keidanren ASEAN meeting in Myanmar n June IR Casino Legislation Enacted? Updated Growth Strategy Ordinary Diet session ends Cabinet Re-shuffle Shuffle? 4-5: G8 in Sochi ? Nuclear Restart Process 13 14 15 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Applied on 8th Jul 2013 Hokkaido Restart date is TBA because of incomplete restart application Tomari 1,2 (579MW each) Hokkaido Tomari 3 Restart in April 2014 at earliest (912MW) Kansai Oi 3,4 (1,180MW each) Kansai Takahama 3,4 (870MW each) Shikoku Ikata 3 (890MW) Kyushu Sendai 1,2 Applied on 14th Feb 2014 (890MW each) Chubu Restart date TBA Hamaoka 4 (1,137MW) Applied on 12th Jul 2013 Kyushu Restart in April 2014 at earliest Genkai 3,4 (1,180MW each) Applied on 27th Sep 2013 Tokyo Restart date TBA Kashiwazaki Kariwa 6,7 (1,356MW each) Applied on 25th Dec 2013 Screening Process just started in Feb 2014, Chugoku Restart date TBA Shimane 2 (820MW) Tohoku Screening Process just started in Feb 2014, Onagawa 2 (825MW) Restart date TBA Fukui (Kansai Electric Power) Oi 3 Oi 4 Takahama 3 Takahama 4 (1991.12~) (1993.2~) (1985.1~) (1985.6~) 1,180MW 870MW MW 1,180MW 870 Issei Nishikawa Tsuruga 2 Oi 1 Mihama 1 Mihama 3 Takahama 2 Hokkaido (Hokkaido Electric Power) (1987.2~) (1979.3~) (1970.11~) (1976.12~) (1975.11~) Tomari 3 2 1 340MW (2009.12~) (1991.4~) (1989.6~) 826MW 826MW 1,160MW 579MW 579MW 1,175MW Oi 2 (1979.12~) Mihama 2 912MW 500MW Takahama 1 357MW Tsuruga 1 (1972.7~) 826MW (1974.11~) (1970.3~) Harumi Takahashi 1,175MW Aomori (Tohoku Electric Power) Ohma Higashidori Shizuoka (Chubu Electric Power) (2014.11~?) (2005.12~) 4 5 Tsuruga 1,2… Electric Power Hamaoka 3 → (1987.8~) (1993.9~) (2005.1~) The Japan 1,383MW Development 1,100MW Atomic Power 1,100MW Shingo Mimura 1,100MW 1,100MW Heita Kawakatsu Miyagi (Tohoku Electric Power) Onagawa 1 2 3 Shimane (Chugoku Electric Power) (1995.7~) (2002.1~) (1984.6~) Shimane 3 2 1 524MW (1989.2~) (1974.3~) 825MW 825MW (2012.3~?) 460MW Yoshihiro Murai 1,383MW 820MW Zenbe Mizoguchi Fukushima (Tokyo Electric Power) Fukushima 3 5 Ehime (Shikoku electric Power) Daiichi 1 (1976.3~) (1978.4~) Ikata 3 2 1 784MW (1982.3~) (1977.9~) 400MW (1971.3~) 784MW (1994.12~) 566MW 566MW 2 4 6(1979.3~) 890MW (1978.10~) Yuhei (1974.7~) 784MW 784MW 1,100MW Tokihiro Nakamura Sato Fukushima 2 3 4 Daini 1 (1984.2~) (1985.6~) (1987.8~) Saga (Kyushu Electric Power) (1982.4~) 4 2 1 1,100MW 1,100MW 1,100MW 1,100MW Genkai 3 (1997. (1981. (1975. (1994.3~) 7~) 3~) 1~) 1,180MW 559MW 559MW Niigata (Tokyo Electric Power) Yasushi Furukawa 1,180MW Kashiwazaki 5 6 7 -Kariwa 1 (1990.4~) (1996.11~) (1997.7~) (1985.9~) Kagoshima (Kyushu Electric Power) 1,100MW 1,100MW 1,356MW 1,356MW Hirohiko Sendai 1 2 2 3 4 (1984.7~) (1985.11~) 890MW Izumida (1990.9~) (1993.8~) (1994.8~) 890MW Yuichiro Ito 1,100MW 1,100MW 1,100MW Ishikawa (Hokuriku Electric Power) Ibaraki (The Japan Atomic Power) Shiga 1 Tokai Daini 2 (1993.7~) (2006 (1978.11~) 540MW .3~) 1,100MW Masanori Tanimoto 1,206MW Masaru Hashimoto About GR Japan Juzen Bldg.
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