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UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Post-Fire UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Post-fire hydrologic behavior and recovery: Advancing spatial and temporal prediction with an emphasis on remote sensing A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Civil Engineering by Alicia Michiko Kinoshita 2012 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Post-fire hydrologic behavior and recovery: Advancing spatial and temporal prediction with an emphasis on remote sensing by Alicia Michiko Kinoshita Doctor of Philosophy in Civil Engineering University of California, Los Angeles, 2012 Professor Terri S. Hogue, Chair This work has investigated the policy of wildfires, modeling techniques for post-fire assessment, and the influence of controlling variables on post-fire recovery. Post-fire mitigation and management require reliable predictions of immediate hydrologic consequences and long-term recovery to pre-fire conditions. This research shows that models used by agencies are not adaptable to all geographical and climatological conditions. Results show inconsistencies between model predictions for peak discharge events across the sites and less confidence associated with larger return periods (25- and 50-year peak flow events). Remote sensing techniques improve spatial and temporal resolution of data streams for model parameters and post-fire recovery predictions. This research shows that recovery is dependent on many ii variables, including burn severity, slope aspect, and vegetation biomass. The lack of vegetation recovery across watersheds results in significant changes in annual and seasonal discharge throughout the study period. Understanding these key controlling variables will improve post-fire hydrological predictions. Previously established remote sensing algorithms can be applied and adapted to burned areas to improve hydrologic and recovery predictions. This work encourages new tools that can be incorporated into policies that minimize development at the WUI, improve homeowner preparation in fire-prone areas, and improve post-fire recovery predictions. This work improves post-fire modeling and predictions primarily with remote sensing applications to guide accurate, efficient, and cost-effective management decisions. iii The dissertation of Alicia Michiko Kinoshita is approved. Steven A. Margulis Rui Wang William W-G. Yeh Terri S. Hogue, Committee Chair University of California, Los Angeles 2012 iv DEDICATION PAGE This dissertation is dedicated to my parents, Michael and Margaret Kinoshita, who provided love and support throughout my decade at UCLA, without them this work would not have been possible. Without them I would not be leading an exciting life of a hydrologist and fire chaser! This is also dedicated to my friends and family, who have made graduate school doable. Don’t be modest, you know who you are. Thank you for your patience, love, and encouragement! Because of you, my graduate school journey is filled with adventure and memorable moments. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Wildfires ................................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Wildfire management................................................................................................................ 4 1.2.1 Wildfire suppression .............................................................................................................. 4 1.2.2 Hydrologic post-fire management ......................................................................................... 6 1.3 Research goals and research questions ..................................................................................... 8 1.4 Research approach and organization of dissertation................................................................. 9 1.5 References............................................................................................................................... 11 Chapter 2. Management Policies at the Wildland-Urban Interface .............................................. 15 2.1 Wildland-urban interface ........................................................................................................ 15 2.2 Motivation............................................................................................................................... 16 2.3 Policies and management........................................................................................................ 18 2.4 Arroyo Seco case study and analytical tools........................................................................... 20 2.5 Summary of research needs .................................................................................................... 26 2.6 References............................................................................................................................... 28 Chapter 3. Post-Fire Hydrologic Model Assessment.................................................................... 31 3.1 Motivation............................................................................................................................... 31 3.2 Methods................................................................................................................................... 34 3.2.1 Models.................................................................................................................................. 34 3.2.2 Post-fire models ................................................................................................................... 44 3.2.3 Data resources and parameters............................................................................................. 46 3.2.4 Study areas ........................................................................................................................... 48 3.2.5 Model evaluation ................................................................................................................. 50 3.2.6 Statistical evaluation ............................................................................................................ 53 3.2.7 Model calibration ................................................................................................................. 53 3.3 Results and discussion ............................................................................................................ 54 3.3.1 Pre- and post-fire peak discharge......................................................................................... 54 3.3.2 Calibration............................................................................................................................ 59 3.3.3 Model uncertainty and errors ............................................................................................... 62 3.4 Conclusions............................................................................................................................. 67 3.5 References............................................................................................................................... 71 Chapter 4. Controls on Recovery in Post-Fire Watersheds .......................................................... 76 4.1 Motivation............................................................................................................................... 76 4.2 Methods................................................................................................................................... 79 4.2.1 Study areas ........................................................................................................................... 80 4.2.2 Hydrologic data.................................................................................................................... 83 4.2.3 Distributed watershed aspect ............................................................................................... 85 4.2.4 Differenced normalized burn ratio....................................................................................... 85 4.2.5 MODIS Vegetation Indices.................................................................................................. 86 4.2.6 Savitzky-Golay analysis....................................................................................................... 87 vi 4.2.7 Analysis of variance............................................................................................................. 88 4.3 Results and discussion ............................................................................................................ 89 4.3.1 General watershed behavior................................................................................................. 89 4.3.2 Seasonal runoff ratios .......................................................................................................... 90 4.3.3 ANOVA and confidence intervals ....................................................................................... 93 4.3.4 Post-fire EVI evolution........................................................................................................ 98 4.4 Conclusions........................................................................................................................... 106 4.5 References............................................................................................................................
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