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Fires on Flathead Forest Grow Slightly, Expected to Burn for Weeks

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Fires on Flathead Forest Grow Slightly, Expected to Burn for Weeks Houston East (CAMS 1) monitoring site AUGUST 26, 2011 EXCEPTIONAL EVENTS DEMONSTRATION PACKAGE For the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria One-hour Ozone Nonattainment Area TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY P.O. BOX 13087 AUSTIN, TEXAS 78711-3087 September 30, 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents ................................................................................................................. i List of Acronyms ................................................................................................................ iii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................v List of Figures .................................................................................................................... vi Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... viii Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 A Conceptual Model of Ozone for the HGB Area ................................................. 1-1 1.2 Trends in HGB Area Emissions and Ozone Levels ............................................. 1-2 1.3 Ozone Reduction Progress at the Houston East (CAMS 1) Monitoring Site ...... 1-4 1.4 The Exceptional Event of August 26, 2011 ......................................................... 1-5 Chapter 2: Exceptional Event Rule Requirements for States .......................................... 2-1 2.1 United States Environmental Protection Agency Requirements ....................... 2-1 2.2 Responses to Exceptional Event Rule Requirements ........................................ 2-2 2.2.1 The Event Affected Air Quality .................................................................... 2-2 2.2.2 The Event is not Reasonably Controllable or Preventable .......................... 2-3 2.2.3 The Event is not Likely to Recur or is Natural ............................................. 2-3 2.2.4 The State Follows the Public Comment Process.......................................... 2-3 2.2.5 Mitigation Requirements of 40 CFR §51.930 .............................................. 2-3 2.2.6 A Clear Causal Relationship Exists .............................................................. 2-5 2.2.7 In Excess of Normal Historical Fluctuations ............................................... 2-6 2.2.8 There Would Have Been no Exceedance but for the Event ......................... 2-6 Chapter 3: Normal Historical Fluctuations at the Houston East (CAMS 1) Monitoring Site .......................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 An Analysis of Historic Seasonal Fluctuation of Maximum Daily Ozone Values at the Houston East (CAMS 1) Monitoring Site ................................................................. 3-1 3.2 An Analysis of Annual Daily Maximum One-Hour Ozone meAsurements at the Houston East (CAMS 1) Monitoring Site ................................................................................ 3-2 3.3 An Analysis of Diurnal Profiles at the Houston East (CAMS 1) Monitoring Site3-3 3.4 Short-Term Analysis of the Houston East (CAMS 1) Monitoring Site Daily Maximum Ozone measurements ............................................................................................... 3-5 3.5 Comparisons Between Nitrogen Oxides (NOX) and Ozone Data Collected at the Houston East (CAMS 1) and Nearby Monitoring Sites ........................................................... 3-6 i 3.6 Southeast Texas Monitoring Sites .................................................................... 3-10 Chapter 4: A Clear Causal Relationship Between Fire Emissions and Higher Ozone .... 4-1 4.1 Literature Review ................................................................................................ 4-1 4.2 Wildfires of 2011 ................................................................................................. 4-5 4.3 Timing of Hourly Fine Particulate Matter less than or equal to 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5) and Ozone Measurements on August 26, 2011 ........................................... 4-11 4.4 Trajectory Analyses .......................................................................................... 4-12 4.4.1 Trajectory Analysis 1 – Backward Trajectories from the Houston East (CAMS 1) Monitoring Site ................................................................................................... 4-13 4.4.2 Trajectory Analysis 2 – HYSPLIT Matrix Forward Trajectories from Areas with Clusters of Fires .................................................................................................. 4-16 4.4.3 Trajectory Analysis 3 – HYSPLIT Matrix 6 ............................................... 4-23 4.4.4 Ozonesonde Analysis ................................................................................. 4-28 4.4.5 Uncertainties .............................................................................................. 4-32 4.5 GOES Satellite Imagery .................................................................................... 4-33 4.6 Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Images with HYSPLIT Backward trajectories4-36 4.7 Pathfinder Satellite observations ..................................................................... 4-42 4.8 Monitor Values in Louisiana display Westerly Trend ...................................... 4-49 Chapter 5: No Exceedance but for the Exceptional Event ............................................... 5-1 5.1 Houston Area Background Ozone Levels ........................................................... 5-1 5.2 Analysis of a Surrogate Day ................................................................................ 5-4 5.2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 5-4 5.2.1 Surface Trajectories ...................................................................................... 5-5 5.2.2 Surrogate Days ............................................................................................. 5-7 5.2.3 Sinuosity ...................................................................................................... 5-8 5.3 Meteorological Similarities of The Exceptional Event Day and Surrogate Day . 5-9 5.4 Similarities of HRVOCs on The Exceptional Event and Surrogate Days ......... 5-12 5.5 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 5-14 Chapter 6: Documentation of the Public Comment Process ........................................... 6-1 Chapter 7: Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 7-1 Chapter 8: References ...................................................................................................... 8-1 Appendix A: Press Releases/Media Reports ....................................................................... 1 Appendix B: Public Comments ............................................................................................ 1 ii LIST OF ACRONYMS AutoGC Automatic Gas Chromatograph AOD Aerosol Optical Depth AQI Air Quality Index AQS Air Quality System CALIOP Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization CALIPSO Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation CAMS Continuous Air Monitoring Station CASTNET Clean Air Status and Trends Network CFR Code of Federal Regulations CO Carbon Monoxide CST Central Standard Time EPA Environmental Protection Agency EDAS Eta Data Assimilation System EER Exceptional Events Rule F Fahrenheit FCAA Federal Clean Air Act GOES Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite HGB Houston-Galveston-Brazoria HMS Hazard Mapping System HRM 3 Houston Regional Monitoring Site #3 HRVOC Highly Reactive Volatile Organic Compounds HYSPLIT Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory km Kilometer LDT Local Daylight Time LEADS Leading Environmental Analysis and Display System LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging LST Local Standard Time m Meter MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration nm Nanometer NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOX Oxides of Nitrogen NOY Total Reactive Nitrogen NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide NWS National Weather Service OC Organic Carbon PAN Peroxyacetyl Nitrate PM Particulate Matter PM2.5 Fine Particulate Matter less than or equal to 2.5 microns in diameter PM10 Particulate Matter less than or equal to 10 microns in diameter ppb parts per billion ppbC parts per billion by Carbon ppm parts per million TCEQ Texas Commission on Environmental Quality TOMS Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer U.S. United States iii UTC Coordinated Universal Time VOC Volatile Organic Compounds WFABBA Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm iv LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1: Siting Details of the Houston East (CAMS 1) Monitoring Site.................................... 1-4 Table 3-1: Seasonal Daily Maximum One-Hour Ozone for the Houston East (CAMS 1) and Nearby Monitors, 2009 through 2011 ......................................................................................... 3-9 Table 3-2: Seasonal Daily One-Hour NOX Statistics for the Houston East (CAMS 1) and Nearby Monitors During 2009 through 2011 and Comparison with August 26, 2011 .........................
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