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Airline Traffic Update Report for December and Year Ending 2016

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Airline Traffic Update Report For December and Year Ending 2016 January 19, 2017 1200 Key Points: 998.88 1000 In India, domestic air passengers increased by 23.4% to 9.50 million, 810.91 800 YoY, in December 2016. 600 During the month, the highest number of passenger flew with Indigo 400 Airlines, totaling around 38.48 lakhs VS 37.73 lakhs passengers in the month of November, 2016 and 27.43 lakhs in December 2015. 200 77.09 95.52 With a load factor of 94%, SpiceJet witnessed the maximum occupan- 0 YoY MoM cy. 2015 2016 In Year 2016, total passenger flew domestically were 998.87 lakhs, Vistara Trujet Air Asia higher than 810.92 lakhs recorded during the same month last year. 3.20% 0.30% Air Carnival 2.90% 0.10% Air India The Indian aviation industry is one of the largest industry and India Air Costa 14.00% 0.50% aims to become the third-largest aviation market by 2020. Jet Airways Indigo 15.30% By 2020, passenger traffic at Indian airports is expected to increase to 40.30% Jet Lites 421 million from 223.61 million in 2016 . Spice Jet 2.60% 12.70% Go Air Research Analyst: Jeet Ranjan Ghosh 8.20% Email: [email protected] 1 Air Passenger Traffic Growth Continues, Flying High With a New Opportunity Agenda Exhibit 1: Indian Airline Traffic – YoY and MoM data Indian Airlines company together served 99.8 million passengers in 2016, as compared to 81.10 million during the last year. During the month of December 2016, the total passenger flown were 9.55 million against 7.71 million recorded during the same period1200 last year. This brought a steady growth of 23% on YoY 998.88 basis,1000 however on MoM basis, despite the demonetisation effect, the total810.91 traffic served grew by 24%. 800 The highest number of passenger flew with Indigo Airlines, totaling600 around 38.48 lakhs passengers in the month of December,400 2016 vs 27.43 lakhs passengers in December 2015. Followed by Jet Airways, Air India and SpiceJet, growing strong 200 with the airlines rising popularities. With77.09 a load95.52 factor of 94%, SpiceJet0 witnessed the maximum occupancy. Whereas, Jet YoY MoM Exhibit 2: Major Airlines Passenger Growth Over The Years Airways with its subsidiary 2015JetLite2016 registered 10% growth on an 450 average in total passenger carried on MoM basis. 400 Among the regional carriers, TruJet and AirCarnival carried 350 31,000 and 10,000 passengers. 300 However, considering usual season discounts and various new 250 direct routes inter state, it is expected that the total air 200 passenger traffic will continue to grow and remain steady at the 150 higher level in the coming months as well. 100 50 0 Air India Jet Airways SpiceJet Indigo Airlines 2014 2015 2016 Source: DGCA website 2 On-Time Performance (OTP) and Cancellation Rate Exhibit 3: OTP on Four Major Metro Cities, YoY comparison On-Time Performance (OTP) is a very important factor for every 100 Airline companies. The SpiceJet achieved better on-time 90 80 performance as compared to the every other airline companies 70 operated during the period. It overcast Indigo, the major 60 market share holder in the industry, and Jet Airways. 50 40 Also, looking at the total cancellation rate by airline companies, 30 20 it has been observed that the most cancellation came from the 10 Costa Airlines, followed by Air India, Jet Airways and Indigo. In 0 SpiceJet Jet Vistara Go Air Indigo Air India this criteria, SpiceJet also performed well as compared to the Airways+Jet other airline companies. Registered only 1.66% of total Lite cancellation during the month, whereas Indigo, Jet Airways and 2014 2015 2016 Air India have seen cancellation of 2.83%, 1.77% and 1.91% respectively. Exhibit 4: Cancellation Rate across the Airline Companies However, when comparing the cancellation data on YoY basis, 16 the SpiceJet’s total cancellation increased as compared to the 14 12 last year, but it was less than the other major players in the 10 Industry. 8 Looking at the current scenario, it can be seen that SpiceJet 6 overall services are improving when comes to direct comparison 4 2 with other major Airline companies. 0 GoAir TruJet Indigo JetLite Vistara AirAsia SpiceJet Air India Air Air Costa Jet Airways Dec ' 2016 Dec' 2015 3 Market Share Analysis The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) announced domestic airlines Exhibit 5: Market share position as on November, 2016 traffic data for the month of December 2016. The data showed development about the current market share position for all the leading domestic air carriers (Exhibit 5). Indigo continued to dominate the market with 40% share, marginally down by almost 200 basis points from its previous month’s market share of 42.10%. (Exhibit 7). SpiceJet also lost a few basis points in its total market share, MoM, standing at 12.70%. Likewise, Air India witnessed fall in its market share by 10 basis points, however, Jet Airways and Go Air continued gaining market share in December 2016. Exhibit 6: Market Share Performance in last three months Exhibit 7: MoM change in market share 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% Vistara Trujet Air Asia 3.20% 0.30% Air Carnival 25.00%2.90% 0.10% 20.00% Air India Air Costa 14.00% 0.50%15.00% 10.00% Jet Airways 5.00% Indigo 15.30% 40.30% 0.00% Jet Lites Jet Airways SpiceSpiceJet Jet 2.60%Indigo 12.70% Dec'16 Nov'16 Oct'16 Source: DGCA Website Go Air 8.20% 4 Indian Aviation Industry - An emerging sector with stellar growth intact Exhibit 8:Airline Passenger Growth Over Last Two Years (Company Wise) 450 The Indian aviation industry is one of the largest industry and India 400 aims to become the third-largest aviation market by 2020. By 2020, 350 300 passenger traffic at Indian airports is expected to increase to 421 250 million from 223.61 million in 2016 . 200 150 Domestic passenger traffic expanded at a compound annual growth 100 50 rate (CAGR) of 11.8 per cent over FY06 and FY15. A strong market 0 growth rate clubbed with infrastructure expansion will help the GoAir TruJet Indigo Vistara Jet Lite sector back on its track as the economy recovers. While considering AsiaAir SpiceJet Air India Air Costa Jet Airways the last five years there have been significant investments by large PegasusAir and small domestic companies that has entered this industry. 2015 2016 Also, rising working group and widening middle class demography is Exhibit 9:Industry Load Factor (in %age) expected to boost demand, which will boost the total revenue 90.00 contributed by the companies. Demographically, the Indian aviation 88.70 market is very strong as The government has been encouraging 88.00 private sector participation. Foreign investment up to 49 per cent is 86.00 allowed under automatic route in scheduled air transport service, 84.10 84.00 regional air transport service and domestic scheduled passenger 82.50 84.50 airline. 82.00 However, there are growing concerns over increasing air turbine fuel 82.20 81.10 80.00 (ATF) price due to production cut by OPEC and Non-OPEC countries, 81.00 which may hamper the future pricing strategy of the airline 78.00 companies, hence it may impact the margin structure for the Indian airline companies. 76.00 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sept'16 Oct'16 Nov'16 Dec'16 Source: DGCA Website, as on January 18, 2017 5 Financial for the major Airlines Companies (Snapshot) **Note: Net Worth of SpiceJet and Jet Airways are negative Source: ACE Equity, Bloomberg and SMIFS Research 6 Research & Development Strategies Mr Ajay Jaiswal Mr Ashiwini Kumar Tripathi Mr. Vishal Prabhakar President: Strategies and Head Research Director VP – Investor Relations & BDM [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] +91 33 30515408 / 40115408 +91 33 30515415 / 40115415 +91 33 30515400 / 40115400 Mobile: +91 9836966900 Mobile: +91 9831155058 Mobile: +91 9831554477 Fundamental Research Mr. Saurabh Ginodia Mr. Dipanjan Basuthakur Mr. Harshit Mantri Ms. Sutapa Biswas Senior Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst [email protected] [email protected] BFSI/IT/Media Economy +91 33 30515407 +91 33 30515486 [email protected] [email protected] +91 33 30515433 / 30515468 +91 9836020612 Mr. Jeet Ranjan Ghosh Ms. Mononita Mitra Mr. Abhishek Roy Mr. Kapil Joshi Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Auto Ancillary/Engineering/Oil and Gas Agro Chemicals/Diversified FMCG/ Capital Goods/Textiles Building Products/Infrastructure [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] +91 33 30515433 / 30515468 +91 33 30515468 +91 33 30515468 +91 33 30515468 Technical Research Mr. Jaydeb Dey Technical Analyst Equities [email protected] +91 33 30515433 Stock Recommendation Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months Strong Buy >20% Buy between 10% and 20% Hold between 0% and 10% Sell 0 to <-10% Neutral No Rating Investor Relations and Data Support Mr. Sandipan Chatterjee Ms. Debjani Sen Ms. Sulagna Mukherjee Mr. Manish Kumar Sharma Officer – Business Development Officer – Investor Relations Executive – Customer Care Research Data Support [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] +91 33 30515461 +91 33 30515401 +91 33 30515436 +91 33 30515436 Bloomberg Ticker for Stewart & Mackertich Research: SMIF<Enter> Contact Details Hyderabad Office: Chennai Office: Registered Office Address: Mumbai Office: New Delhi Office: Ms. Vaishnavi Mr. K.K.Raja Gopalan Vaibhav, 4 Lee Road, Mr.Vaibhav P.
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