Association for Information and Image Management

° Association for Information and Image Management _ _

ORNL-6813

ENERGY DIVISION ANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT for Period Ending September 30, 1993

Robert B. Shelton, Director Johnnie B. Cannon, Associate Director Michael A. Kuliasha, Associate Director

Michael S. Bronzini, Section Head, Center for Transportation Analysis George E. Courville, Section Head, Efficiency and Renewables Research Section T. Randall Curlee, Section Head, Energy and Global Change Analysis Section Robert M. Reed, Section Head, Environmental Analysis and Assessment Section

Date Published--July 1994

Philip P. Wolff, Editor Leigh D. Corbett, Electronic Publisher

Prepared by the OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 managed by MARTIN MARIET-I'A ENERGY SYSTEMS, INC. for the U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY under contract No. DE-AC05-84OR21400 MASTER

..-.--.,-,-U,,un 01r THISDOCUMENTIS UNLIMITED CONTENTS

ACRONYMS ...... v ABSTRACT ...... ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...... xi

1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1

2. CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS ...... 5 Transportation Energy and Environmental Issues ...... 6 Transportation Energy Data Book ...... 6 Petroleum Refining ...... 6 Oil Cost ...... 7 National Transportation Planning and Policy ...... 7 National Transportation Surveys ...... 7 A Transportation Geographic Information System ...... 9 Commodity Flow Survey ...... 10 Military Transportation and Logistics ...... 11 Air Mobility ...... 11 Planning ...... ,: ...... 12 Shipping ...... 12 Transportation Systems Engineering ...... 13 Nationwide Map Database and Link Referencing System ...... 13 Advanced Traffic Management Systems Training Simulator ...... 13 TRAF Simulation System ...... 14 Predicting Vehicle Emissions ...... 14 Driver Limitations ...... 14 References ...... 15

3. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT SECTION ...... 17 Waste Management, Safety Analysis, and Environmental Restoration ...... 17 Environmental Restoration Program ...... 18 Waste Management and Safety Program ...... 18 Geophysical Imaging ...... 19 Emergency Management ...... 20 Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program ...... 20 Environmental Sampling Design ...... 21 Other Emergency Management Activities ...... 22 NEPA Projects ...... 22 Relicensing and Modification of Hydroelectric Facilities ...... 24 Environmental Assessment in Antarctica ...... 25 Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program ...... 27 References ...... 28

4. ENERGY AND GLOBAL CHANGE ANALYSIS SECTION ...... 31 Energy and Environmental Economics ...... 32 Economics and Modeling ...... 33

tt| Global Studies ...... 34 Energy Program Planning and Evaluation ...... 35 Integrated Resource Planning ...... 38 Tax and Regulatory Treatment of Renewable Energy ...... 38 DSM and Statistical Recoupling ...... 38 Developing Country Research ...... 39 Overview ...... 39 India Refrigerator Project ...... 39 Joint Institute for Energy and Environment ...... 40 References ...... 41

5. EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLES RESEARCH SECTION ...... 43 Building Equipment Technology Program ...... 43 Thermally Activated Heat Pumps ...... 44 Refrigeration Systems ...... 45 Thermal and Environmental Control Systems ...... 46 Building Envelope Research Center ...... 47 Mission ...... 47 R-30/30 Roofs ...... 47 Attic Research and Design Handbook ...... 48 Advanced Wall Research and Thermal Performance label ...... 48 Energy-Efficient, Durable Foundations ...... 48 Existing Buildings Research ...... 49 Residential Buildings ...... 49 DOE-HUD Initiative ...... 50 Commercial Buildings ...... 50 Technology Transfer for Buildings...... 51 Power Systems Technology ...... • ...... 51 EMF Research Program ...... 51 Real-Time Power Systems Control Research Program ...... 52 High-Capacity Transmission ...... 52 Dielectric Materials ...... 53 Geomagnetic Storm Research ...... 53 Electric Motor Systems Research ...... 53 Renewable Integration ...... 53 Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage ...... 53 International Technology Cooperation ...... 55 References ...... 55

APPENDIX: PUBLICATIONS, AWARDS, AND SUMMARY DATA ...... 59 Energy Division Advisory Committee FY 1993 ...... 59 Energy Division Professional Honors and Awards FY 1993 ...... 60 Energy Division Publications FY 1993 ...... 61 Workshops and Symposia Organized by Energy Division Staff ...... 71 Energy Division Sponsors, Expenditures, and Commitments of Scientific Staff for FY 1993 ...... 73

ORGANIZATION CHART ...... 74

iv ACRONYMS

ADANS AMC Deployment Analysis System ADEPT Assisting the Deployment of Energy Practices and Technologies (DOE program) AFEAS Alternative Fluorocarbons Environmental Acceptability Study AMC Air Mobility Command ASHRAE American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers ATMS advanced traffic management systems BERC Building Envelope Research Center BET Building Equipment Technology (Program) BTC Buildings Technology Center CAA Clean Air Act CADDET Centre for the Analysis and Dissemination of Demonstrated Energy Technologies CAREIRS Conservation and Renewable Energy Inquiry and Referral Service CERCLA Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act CFC chlorofluorocarbon COP coefficient of performance CRADA cooperative research and development agreement CSEPP Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program CTA Center for Transportation Analysis D2PC air-dispersion model (U.S. Army) dc direct current DCC double-condenser-coupled DOD U.S. Department of Defense DOE U.S. Department of Energy DOT U.S. Department of Transportation DSM demand-side management EA environmental assessment EAAS Environmental Analysis and Assessment Section EBR Existing Buildings Efficiency Research (Program) EGCAS Energy and Global Change Analysis Section EIS environmental impact statement EMF electromagnetic field Energy Systems Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EPRI Electric Power Research Institute ER environmental restoration ERIP Energy-Related Inventions Program ERRS Efficiency and Renewables Research Section FAST Flow and Analysis System for TRANSCOM FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission FHWA Federal Highway Administration GAX generator-absorber )aeat exchange GDT geophysical diffraction tomography GIS geographic information system GPR ground-penetrating radar GREENTIE Greenhouse Gas Technology Information Exchange HCFC hydrochlorofluorocarbon HPDM heat pump design model HUD U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development HVAC heating, ventilation, and air conditioning HVDC high-voltage direct current HX heat exchanger ICDB Integrated Cargo Data Base IEA International Energy Agency IIEC International Institute of Energy Conservation IRP integrated resource planning ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act IVHS Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems JIEE Joint Institute for Energy and Environment LiBr lithium bromide LOF liquid overfeeding LSCS large-scale climate simulator MTMC U.S. Military Traffic Management Command NAPAP National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program NAS National Academy of Sciences NATAS National Appropriate Technology Assistance Service NEAT National Energy Audit NEPA National Environmental Policy Act NOx nitrogen oxides NFFS National Personal Transportation Survey NRC U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission NSF National Science Foundation NTACS Nationwide Truck Activities and Commodity Survey NTP Statement of National Transportation Policy (DOT) OBT Office of Building Technology OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ORNL Oak Ridge National Laboratory ORNL-RYM Oak Ridge National Laboratory Refinery Yield Model ORR Oak Ridge Reservation PADRE Protective Action Dose Reduction Estimator (model) R&D research and development RF refrigerator/freezer RFG reformulated gasoline RI remedial investigation SEHP Stifling engine-driven heat pump SMES superconducting magnet energy storage SR statistical recoupling SWSA Solid Waste Storage Area S2FIO disulfur decafluoride vi SF6 sulfur hexafluoride T&D transmission and distribution TAHP thermally activated heat pump TERI Tam Energy Research Institute TIUS Truck Inventory and Use Survey TMC Traffic Management Center TRANSCOM U.S. Transportation Command TRB Transportation Research Board TVA Tennessee Valley Authority TXV thermal expansion valve US-AEP United States-Asia Environmental Partnership USAID U.S. Agency for International Development USAP U.S. Antarctic Program UT University of Tennessee WAG Waste Area Grouping

v/i ABSTRACT

One of 17 research divisions at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Energy Division's mission is to provide innovative solutions to energy and related issues of national and global importance through interdisciplinary research and development. Its goals and accomplishments are described in this annual progress report for FY 1993. Energy Division is committed to (1) understanding the mechanisms by which societies make choices in energy use, (2) improving society's understanding of the environmental, social, and economic implications of technological change; (3) developing and transferring energy-efficient technologies; (4) improving transportation policy and planning; (5) enhancing basic knowledge in the social sciences as related to energy and associated issues; and (6) providing a unique climate that allows engineers and physical, environmental, and social scientists to address major societal problems and to develop professionally in their respective disciplines. Energy Division's expenditures in FY 1993 totaled $42 million. The work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Defense, many other federal agencies, and some private organizations. Disciplines of the 126.5 technical staff members include engineering, social sciences, physical and life sciences, and computer sciences and data systems. The division's programmatic activities cover three main areas: (1) analysis and assessment, (2) energy use and delivery technologies, and (3) transportation systems. Analysis and assessment activities involve energy and resource analysis, preparation of environmental assessments and impact statements, research on emergency preparedness, transportation analysis, and analysis of energy and environmental needs in developing countries. Energy use and delivery technologies focus on electric power systems, building equipment, building envelopes (walls, foundations, roofs, attics, and materials), and methods to improve energy efficiency in existing buildings. Transportation systems research is conducted both to improve the quality of civilian transportation and for sponsors within the U.S. military to improve the efficiency of deployment, scheduling, and transportation coordination. Much of Energy Division's research is valuable to other organizations as well as to sponsors. This information is disseminated by the staff's involvement in professional and trade organ:_zations and workshops; joint research with universities and private-sector firms; collaboration with state and local governments; pre- sentation of work at conferences; and publication of research results in journals, reports, and conference proceedings.

/x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors wish to thank the following individuals who assisted in preparing this document. Mary Ann Hensley, Kathy Bellew, Sue Damewood, and Kerry Hake compiled the information for their sections while continuing to fulfill their multitude of daily responsibilities. Nancy Pope, Tracy Bodine, Sherry Surdam, Teresa Ferguson, Linda Edwards, Jonnie Sorensen, and Naomi Myers also contributed essential information. Curtis Boles and Lewis McCrary provided photography services, and Daniel Pack provided graphics support. Publications staff members Philip Wolff and Leigh Corbett devoted many long hours to this report's production; Bill Cabage, Joe Stone, Deborah Counce, LeRoy Gilliam, Walter Koncinski, and Carolyn Moser provided helpful commentary, review, and advice on document design and content.

x/ Robert B, Sheiton, Division Director Introduction

One of 17 research divisions at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Energy Division was established in 1974 to consolidate work on environmental, technological, and regional assessments related to energy development and to conduct research on improving the efficiency of energy use and conversion. Our mission reflects those themes: To provide innovative solutions to energy and related issues of national and global importance through interdisciplinary research and development (R&D). Energy Division focuses on technology and human systems through three principal thrusts: (1) performing environmental, technological, regional, and policy analysisand assessmentsrelated to energy development; (2) conducting research on improving the efficiency of transportation systems; and (3) performing R&D to improve the efficiency of energy use and delivery technologies. While much of our work emphasizes energy and environmental issues, we also address other pressing concerns on the national agenda, reflecting the division's problem-driven nature. Analysis and assessment activities comprise five main areas: (1) energy and resource analysis, (2) environmental assessment, (3) emergency preparedness, (4) developing country analysis, and (5) transportation analysis. Energy resource analysis is common to every section within the division, covering topics from energy security to utility resource planning. Assessment work involves preparing formal environmental assessments (EAs) and environmental impact statements (EISs) for sponsors to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). Emer- gency preparedness research aims to improve society's ability to cope with natural and technological disasters. Developing country programs address pressing environmental and energy concerns in such countries as Guatemala and India. Transportation analysis develops data and analytical methods through civilian-sector research for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other agencies concerned with transportation. Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Transportation system R&D Michael A. seeks to improve the quality of Kuliasha, Associate both civilian and military trans- Division Director : portation efforts. Energy Divi- _ sion's Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS) team is support-

i:J_i v_.,:_ ing the Federal Highway Ad- ministration (FHWA) in two primary research clusters dealing with commuter mobility. Military transportation researchers are conceptualizing new approaches to planning and exe- cuting strategic deployment of personnel and materiel. Energy use and delivery technologies incorporate building equipment and envelopes, existing buildings, and electric power systems. Work in the building equipment area involves developing thermally activated heat pumps for residential and commercial applications, novel refrigeration cycles, and refrigeration systems. Building envelope research deals with energy efficiency in walls, foundations, roofs, attics, and building materials; research on existing buildings explores technical and implementation issues to improve the energy efficiency of existing structures. Research on electric power systems focuses on developing options to increase transmission and distribution (T&D) capacity, integrating new technologies, and developing enhanced control and operation strategies for future electric power systems. Energy Division is one of ORNL's most diverse research divisions in terms of its sponsorship, research activities, and range of staff expertise. As shown in Fig. 1.1, division expenditures in FY 1993 totaled $42 million. Roughly 66% of the budget was provided by DOE, 16% by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), and the remainder by private industry and other federal agencies. In terms of expenditures by research area, as shown in Fig. 1.2, analysis and assessment activities accounted for 39% of the budget, energy use and delivery for 50%, and military transportation systems for 11%. johnnie B. Cannon, Associate In terms of personnel, Division Director 189.5 full-time equivalent staff and 76 on-site guests provided their talents to the division during FY 1993. Staff members included 126.5 scientific and technical personnel, 42 administrative personnel, and 21 technical support personnel. As shown in Fig. 1.3, more than one-third of the technical staff are engineers, another third are

. physicalsocial scientistsand li,fe scientists,one-sixth andare Introduction

Total expenditures= $42 million Fig. 1.I. Energy Division expenditures by sponsor for fiscal year 1993. Other Work Department of 18.1%($7.6M) Defense 16.2%(SUM)

Departmentof Energy 65.7%($27.6M) the remainder are data systems personnel. As shown in Fig. 1.4, more than 90% of the technical staff hold doctorates or master's degrees.

Subcontractors and consultants also perform work for Energy Division, along with staff from other ORNL divisions, including Analytical Chemistry, Chemical Technology, Engineering Physics and Mathematics, Engineering Technology, Environmental Sciences, Health Sciences Research, Metals and Ceramics, Research Reactors, and Information Management Services divisions.

This report highlights the division's achievements for FY 1993 (October 1, 1992- September 30, 1993), summarizing by chapter the work of the different sections within the division. Chapter 2 details work performed by the Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA), directed by Michael S. Bronzini. Chapter 3 covers the work of the Environmental Analysis and Assessment Section (EAAS), headed by Robert M. Reed. Chapter 4 describes work performed

Totalexpenditures=$42 million Fig. 1.2. Energy Division expenditures by research area for fiscal year 1993. I Military Analysisand Transportation Assessment 11.2%($4.7M) 38.8%($16.3M)

EnergyUseand Delivery 50%($21M) Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Fig. 1.3. Energy Division technical Totalfull-timeequivalent(FTE)technicalstaffmembers= 126.5 staff for fiscal year 1993. PhysicalandLife DataSystems Scientists Personnel 19.4% 9.5% (24.5FTEs) (12.0FTEs)

SocialScientists Engineers 31.2% 39.90/0 (39.5FTEs) (50.5FTEs)

by the newly reorganized Energy and Global Change Analysis Section (EGCAS), led by T. Randall Curlee, and Chapter 5 surveys the work of the Efficiency and Renewables Resear_')_ Section (ERRS), headed by George E. Courville. Lastly, an appendix provides details of staff publications, workshops and symposia, division financial data, and a division organization chart.

Fig. 1.4. Energy Division technical staff by level of education for Total full-time equivalent (FTE)technical staff members = 126.5 fiscal year 1993. M.AJM.S. B.A./B.S. 41.5% 9.9% (52.5 FTEs) (12.5FTEs)

Ph.D. 48.6% (61.5 FTEs) Michael S. Bronzini, Section Head Centerfor TransportationAnalysis

CTA conducts innovative, cost-effective R&D on transportation energy and environmental issues, national transportation planning and policy, military transportation and logistics, and transportation systems engineering. CTA focuses on multimodal national and international transportation systems. Staff members develop and apply advanced computational techniques, analytical methods, and information resources to improve economic and energy efficiency, environmental quality, mobility, national security, and public safety. A mixture of technical and scientific backgrounds and diverse project sponsorship strengthens CTA's interdisciplinary approach to problem solving. Staff expertise includes transportation engineering, transportation geography, transportation economics, operations research, computation and computer science, and other physical and social sciences. The staff actively support the Transportation Research Board (TRB) and other professional societies by making presentations at annual meetings and participating in technical committees. CTA enjoys a close association with the worldwide academic community, with special support from the nearby University of Tennessee (UT) and Vanderbilt University. Work is performed for DOE and other federal agencies, most notably FHWA of the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). Within FHWA, several offices involved in the IVHS program sponsor a significant amount of CTA research. Other sponsors include the DOT Bureau of Transi'ortation Statistics; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; and in DOD, the U.S. Air Force Air Mobility Command (AMC), Transportation Command (TRANSCOM), and Military Traffic Management Command (MTMC). Energy Division Annual Progress Report

TRANSPORTATIONENERGYANDENVIRONMENTALISSUES TransportationEnergyDataBook The Transportation Energy Data Book 1 is a statistical compendium prepared and published for DOE's Office of Transportation Technologies. Designed as a desktop reference, the data book assembles statistics characterizing transportation activity and presents information on other factors that influence transportation energy use. Its purpose is to present relevant statistical data in the form of tables and graphs. For example, Fig. 2.1 shows trends in U.S. petroleum production, consumption, and transportation use over the past 20 years. Each of the major transportation modes--highway, air, water, rail, and pipeline--is treated in separate chapters. The Transportation Energy Data Book is internationally recognized as a primary source for transportation data, with users including the U.S. Congress, the automobile industry, numerous t'ederal and state government agencies, regulatory boards, a.nd foreign government and research institutes. Moreover, DOE used data contained in this publication to help develop the National Energy Strategy. PetroleumRefining In support of the DOE Office of Energy Demand Policy, CTA researchers have used the Oak Ridge Natior.al Laboratory Refinery Yield Model (ORNL-RYM) to analyze impacts resulting from the Clean Air Act (CAA). DOE's interest is to see that CAA programs do not adversely affect the efficiency and reliability of the current infrastructure for gasoline production and distribution.

The CAA gives EPA broad authority to regulate the quality of motor vehicle fuel if any emission product of such fuel causes air pollution that could endanger public health or welfare. Phase I (1995-1999) reformulated gasoline (RFG) must produce no net increase in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions relative to baseline NOx levels. Studies have indicated, however, that additional NOx reductions could significantly reduce tropospheric ozone formation in many areas. EPA has proposed setting a NOx reduction standard for Phase II (year 2000 and beyond) summer RFG to further reduce ozone formation. The final version of the EPA Complex Emis- sions Model (nonlinear equations relating pollutant emissions to gasoline quality) has been integrated within ORNL-RYM, which has been used to estimate the level of cost-effective NOx

20 Fig. 2.1. Petroleum production, consumption, / _ \ Petroleumconsumption and transportation use in the / "_ -" United States from 15 .- / _ -- _ -- _ 1970 to 1993. == Transportationconsumption - • U.S.production m_10 _ ..--__------"_

s 5

0 I I I I i t t t t i i t I I I I I I t I I I 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 Year Center for Transportation Analysis

reduction. ORNL-RYM has also been used to identify a cost-effective summer gasoline that satisfies the CAA's emissions requirements, with a 40% reduction in reformulation cost. DOE is also concerned about the future availability of petroleum products in areas supplied primarily by smaller petroleum refineries• Industry analysts have estimated that up to 13% of U.S. refining could be lost because small refiners may choose to close rather than make investments to reduce refinery pollutant emissions and produce fuels complying with environmental regulations. 2 Studies on the availability of petroleum products with reduced refining capacity in the Rocky Mountain area have been performed with ORNL-RYM. Also, a small refinery analysis has evaluated the special gasoline regulatory problems created by the recent military conversion from naphtha-type to kerosene-type jet fuel. OilCast October 1993 marked the twentieth anniversary of the firstinternational oil crisis. Twenty years later, the U.S. transportation system remains almost totally dependent on petroleum for energy, and U.S. oil imports are as high as ever. Amid today's low oil prices and plentiful supplies, the twentieth anniversary of the "energy crisis" passed almost without notice. However, CTA researchers took the opportunity to review the past two decades of fluctuating world oil markets and to count the economic costs to the United States of dependence on oil. The findings of this study are disturbing, in terms of both the magnitude of past costs and implications for the future.

Past oil price shocks and monopolistic behavior by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel cost the United States approximately $4 trillion over the period 1972-91, compared to a continuation of prior oil market trends,s A number this large is difficult to comprehend---it is roughly two-thirds of the annual U.S. gross national product, almost as large as total U.S. expenditures on national defense over the same period. Still more disturbing, the conditions that made the oil market disruptions of the 1970s possible appear to be on the horizon once more (see highlight "Evaluating the Economic Costs of U.S. Dependence on Oil").

NATIONALTRANSPORTATIONPLANNINGANDPOLICY NationalTransportationSurveys Several projects are currently under way for FHWA as a result of DOT's Statement of National Transportation Policy (NTP). NTP identified a variety of issues and policies related to the collection, processing, and distribution of transportation data and clearly stated that the federal government's policy is to identify national needs for information on transportation. This year, CTA continued to play a significant role in two major data collection and distribution efforts involving national transportation:

• The 1990 National Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) collected information on the travel behavior of the nation's population. Concentrating on trip purpose and mode of transportation, NPTS interviewed 22,000 households and gained detailed information on more than 92,000 vehicle trips and 146,000 person trips. A summary of travel trends was published in March 1992; detailed survey results will be published in a four-volume report series. Results from comparing the previous NPTS with the 1990 survey indicate that American households own more vehicles and are making more and longer daily vehicle trips, resulting in a significant increase in daily house- hold driving (as expressed in vehicle-miles of travel). Energy Division Annual Progress Report

EvaluatingtheEconomicCostsofU.S.DependenceonOil

Today, some 20 years the rule. They point out that the to oil price shocks and using after the "energy crisis," the potential for OPEC to exercise historical statistics on oil im- U.S. transportation system re- monopoly power in world oil ports, prices, and consumption, mains almost totally dependent markets depends on three GTA researchers estimated that on imported petroleum for en- objective factors: (1) the world between 1972 and 1991, wealth ergy. In a recent study, CTA re- elasticity of demand for oil, transfer from U.S. oil consum- searchers :eviewed the past two (2) the ability of non-OPEC ers exceeded $1 trillion and decades of fluctuating world oil suppliers to increase produc- that combined losses of eco- markets to count the economic tion, and (3) OPEC's share of nomic output were near $3 tril- costs to the United States of this the world oil market. The more lion. A large fraction of these dependence. Oil price shocks inelastic oil demand becomes, costs was incurred during price and monopolistic behavior by the more inelastic non-OPEC shocks, but substantial losses OPEC cost the United States supply becomes, and the also occur:',ed during periods of almost$4 trillion over 1972-91, greater OPEC's market share stable prices, as long as oil or about twice the amount the increases, the greater OPEC's prices exceeded competitive federal government spent on potential market power grows, market levels. Even to an econ- interest payments on the na- Given that three-fourths of the omy as large as that of the tional debt over this same world's proven oil reserves are United States, $4 trillion is an period. Frighteningly, the con- located in OPEC countries, enormous economic loss over a ditions that led to the first in- these three factors give the car- 20-year period. ternational oil crisis are once tel potential monopoly power Consistent with this view again looming on the horizon, over oil prices. Whether mo- of world oil market dynamics, Contrary to recent asser- nopoly power is actually exer- the great price increases of tions that OPEC never has been cised depends on the cartel's 1973-74 and 1979-80 occurred able to function as an effective ability to agree upon and coop- when OPEC's share of the world cartel, CTA researchers argue erate in a course of action, oil market exceeded 50%. The that instances of OPEC failures Drawing on past studies of price collapse of 1986 occurred are the exceptions that prove the U.S. economy's sensitivity when the cartel's market share

200 ......

$400 ...... [] LossofPotentialGNP M

m $350 ...... n WealthTransfer

$_0 ......

m $200 ¢ o slso GO $100 $so so 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 19114l 1988 1990 Year

Losses to the U.S. economy from monopoly pricing of oil, 1972-91. Center for Transportation Analysis

had eroded to 30% of the world as the Persian Gulf War, peace analysis, however, is that the market, a low point in recent negotiations between Israel and cartel is merely dormant and history.. DOE projections sug- the Palestinian Liberation Or- will reawaken when it has re- gest that OPEC's share of world ganization, and the breakup of gained the market power lost oil production will exceed 50% the Soviet Union--will forever during the 1980s. If this view by 2000 and 60% by 2010 if prevent the reemergence of an proves correct, we will face a present trends continue. Some ,:ffective OPEC cartel, regard- choice during the 1990s of have argued that recent events less of the potential for profit, learning the lesson of history or in the Middle East regionmsuch A view consistent with CTA being forced to repeat it.

• The 1989 Nationwide TruckActivitiesand CommoditySurvey (NTACS) obtained additional information on commodities carried, basic commodity flow information, and safety features. CTA's involvement included evaluating the survey design, determining priorities to allocate resources most efficiently, and developing statistical methods to establish the link between the Truck Inventory and Use Survey (TIUS) and NTACS.

To fill the information gap on the nation's fuel-use patterns, CTA staffare also undertaking several projects to estimate fuel consumption in the public sector and in off-highway activities. In addition, CTA participated in the planning of several national surveys--the 1992 TIUS and NTACS, as well as the 1993 CommodityFlow Survey.

A Transportation Geographic Information System By its very nature, transportation is a spatial phenomenon, and the fundamental role of a transportation network is to connect places of opportunity. While the world may not be getting any smaller, better communication and information systems and better transportation networks themselves are bringing places closer in ways only dimly conceived of 30 years ago. As a result, a highly competitive business and transportation sector has begun to take a geographically global and more strategic view of its operations. Recognizing this global trend, the U.S. Congress passed the Intermodal Surface Trans- portation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) in December 1991. With the completion of the Interstate Highway System, researchers took a new look at how well our transportation infrastructure serves and will continue to serve intercity, interstate, and international commerce and other " forms of travel into the next century. An important aspect of the ISTEA legislation is its focus on intermodalism and on the potential for synergistic cooperation as well as competition between the nation's different transportation modes. As we become more strategic in our thinking, decision makers increasingly want to "see" the patterns of infrastructure they are being asked to support. Analysts and planners need to integrate networks and other geographical databases; in short, they require a geographic information system (GIS). GIS research within CTA in support of such a strategic view of our nation's transportation infrastructure is currently focusing on the following topics:

• selection of performance measures against which transportation routes are evaluated for inclusion in network maintenance and upgrading plans; • identification, collection, and preparation of geographically referenced data for speci- fying and analyzing such network-based performance measures; and Energy Division Annual Progress Report

• development of sl_atial decision-support tools th/tt generate, display, and evaluate alternative network routing and associated network configuration options.

With assistance from UT's Transportation GIS Laboratory, CTA researchers have developed procedures for matching every link in the multiattribute National Highway Planning Network to a series of more accurate geographic coordinates based on the digital live graphs supplied by the U.S. Geological Survey. The result of this "network matching" procedure will be a new highway network database with accuracy of link locations upgraded from a 1:2,000,000 to a 1:100,000 scale (see Fig. 2.2). To complement this increased geographic accuracy, improved county, congressional district, state, and national shoreline boundary files have also been integrated within the GIS. As a third part of this project, we are assisting FHWA by mapping the ISTEA-mandated redesignation of the nation's principal arterial system and larger urban- ized area boundaries, using maps submitted by the individual states. In a cooperative venture with numerous federal agencies and Vanderbi!t University, CTA is also guiding the development of an improved national waterway network database. By linking such network data to geographically referenced facility locations, population, and economic activity forecasts, ORNL is helping FI-IWA to display and evaluate alternative National Highway System designations, using criteria such as population coverage, volume of traffic moved, and the interregional allocation of network mileage. Geographic databases being tied to this system include the nation's major airports, seaports, military bases, border crossings, truck-rail transfer points, and national parks and monuments, as well as census block-group population data for 1990 and the county-level population and employment projections by major industrial sector from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. We anticipate that these efforts will result in a more geographically accurate, multiattribute, and multimodal network database for the nation's (and possibly the continent's) highway, rail, and water transportation systems--a database built with policy-relevant analysis in mind. CommodityFlowSurvey Understanding the demand for movement of commodities throughout the United States is essential for transportation planning at a national level. To support the Bureau of Trans-

_..-..

highway arterial i ' _' " !_,_-_ _ . '"" _i'"7-;_

city populations, i ". ' /_.....'_ system, showingmajor _li!!:i:,:,/__

CityPopulations' "_---_:___}.__;;.__/':>r.\;/!_!',N_ (_ zooo,ooo ',/ .--..U'-__ .'_ 0 5_,cx_ ._q_" o 25,000100'O00Fe,sons \'_

10 Center for Transportation Analysis

portation Statistics in better understanding this flow, CTA staff are developing spatial, analytical software tools. This GIS-based software aims to analyze and display information gathered by the Bureau of the Census Commodity Flow Survey, a survey which indicates the flow of different commodities between pairs of zip codes. The analytical system must be able to determine reasonable routes between each pair. Combining off-the-shelf software with unique systems developed in-house, the team is beginning to create a picture of this flow. This project is a major component of CTA efforts to develop an integrated national intermodal network that links highway, rail, air, water, and pipeline transportation systems. MILITARYTRANSPORTATIONANDLOGISTICS AirMobility When the United States provides humanitarian relief or responds to military aggression by deploying forces, the fastest means of moving troops, equipment, and supplies is by air. For this purpose, the U.S. Air Force AMC maintains a fleet of more than 1300 aircraft dedicated to moving military or relief forces into any region of the world. Over the past 5 years, AMC has been working with CTA to develop a state-of-the-art scheduling system integrating all of its different peacetime and wartime air mobility planning functions. This system is called the AMC Deployment Analysis System (ADANS). Since becoming operational in early 1990, ADANS has already developed plans for normal peacetime military movements, training, deployments, responses to worldwide crises (including Operation Desert Storm), and responses to natural disasters such as Hurricane Andrew. The AMG and ORNL staff work as a team to continually define and develop new capabilities for ADANS. CTA staff worked in the Tanker Airlift Control Center at Scott Air Force Base side by side with the airlift planners scheduling the Restore Hope relief operation to Somalia, allowing them to identify firsthand any changes needed in the system. One major change in the Somalian operation was the extensive use of air refueling for aircraft. The ADANS programming staff made changes to facilitate this new mode of operation and provided a basic capability to the schedulers within only a few days. Support for this new approach to air mobility, which integr_,testhe planning of airlift and air refueling, is currently under development as a major compo_'ent of ADANS. The system provides three optimization models developed by the CTA Operations Research Group, in addition to the essential tools for editing, managing, and analyzing data. A linear programming-based model estimates the capability of the airlift _ystem to support a large movement. A second model supports schedulers who plan the regularly scheduled peacetime movement of aircraft from the United States to overseas locations. Combining linear and integer programming techniques, this model suggests how often each route should be flown to satisfy the projected demand. The largest model is a dynamic programming-based scheduler that automatically generates detailed aircraft itineraries based on the planner's constraints. ADANS will continue its critical importance to national defense for years to come as AMC adjusts to its changing role in a reorganized Air Force for a post-Cold War world. National defense in the new world order calls for much greater emphasis on mobility and rapid deployment. The decreasing number of troops stationed overseas--combined with the increasing demands to respond quickly and effectively to worldwide unrest, crisis, and disaster--demands a system that can support rapid planning and replanning. Throughout their long relationship, ORNL and AMC staff have found teamwork to be the key for improving the command's ability to respond quickly and effectively to crises anywhere in the world.

11 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Planning The Flow and Analysis System for TRANSCOM (FAST) is a milita_-ydeployment analysis tool being developed by CTA staff, with assistance from other ORNL divisions and UT, to help determine transportation requirements, analyze alternate courses of action, and estimate arrival of troops and equipment traveling by air and sea into an overseas theater of operation. TRANSCOM, the sponsor of.FAST, is responsible for all DOD common-carrier services. An early version of this system was used in Operation Desert Shield to predict the number of airplanes and ships needed to send U.S. forces to the Middle East. Transportation estimates developed by FAST helped establish the deployment's cov,cept of operation, including timing for offensive operations. After the flow began, the system was used to track ships, provide delivery forecasts, and analyze "what-if" scenarios such as canal closings and maintenance delays. FAST uses analysis models based on those used by DOD agencies responsible for managing transportation during actual deployment. Not just another transportation model, this system produces the same answers as the full-scale estimation tools used by the operators responsible for strategic airlift and sealift during a contingency. The capabilities of FAST are now widely recognized by DOD transpnrtation agencies and unified commands (responsible for theater operations) throughout the world. The Military Sealift Command has purchased the equipment necessary to use the system in its sealift operations, and MTMC has expressed interest in using FAST as a basis for analysis tools in its Crisis Action Center. The Joint Staff is now installing the system in all unified commands for developing war plans and monitoring redeployment during exercises and real-world operations. FAST provides extensive capabilities for determining needed transportation assets (e.g., planes, ships, or port capability), how transportation requirements must be time-phased so that trucks and trains properly meet up with aircraft and ships, and projected arrival dates of units and their equipment at destinations. Results are also used to estimate the requirements of active-duty military, reservists, and civilian support to meet national objectives. When a course of action is determined, the system is used to generate transportation utilization plans for trucks, trains, aircraft, and ships so that personnel arrive at their destinations at the same time as their materiel and at rates that minimize congestion of strategic ports and support bases en route.

Shipping CTA is helping MTMC design and develop computer systems and databases to track military surface cargo that passes through common-user ocean terminals. When these systems are fully implemented, MTMC will be able to arrange shipping for unit and nonunit cargo during both peace and war and then track the booked cargo to its final destination. CTA designed the Integrated Cargo Data Base (ICDB), the focal point of MTMC's goal. The ICDB is a massive data repository with multiple sources of data. Through its inquiry module, ICDB can provide the status of cargo on single or multiple shipments through all stages, from request for movement through final documentation. The database can also provide management reports for 3 years of processed data. In the course of system integration, ICDB developers have faced several challenges. One such challenge is ensuring data quality while accepting data from systems for which quality is not as important. This problem is being addressed through intricate checks of existing database records for shipment identifiers and statuses (e.g., cargo cannot be lifted prior to being received). Another challenge is to ensure system reliability. ICDB has a central database server and regional hub servers. This architecture, recommended by CTA, incorporates a "will to live." When any

12 Center for Transportation Analysis

system component (central server or hub) goes down, for reasons ranging from catastrophic failure to simple communication problems, ICDB will "sense" that this component has failed and will automatically assign its responsibilities to another component. Working in cooperation with MTMC, CTA personnel are responsible for designing ICDB systems, databases, and user interfaces; MTMC personnel are writing codes for specific modules and are working closely with ORNL to integrate the modules and optimize programs. ORNL has provided guidance in distributed database technology, tile use of multiprocessors for a relational database, and centralized system administration. ORNL also provided data-conversion routines and designed the communication supercontroller, which automates data retrieval in almost real time without impacting other systems. ICDB is scheduled for completion in late 1994; additional modules (e.g., the booking module) will be integrated at a later date. TRANSPORTATIONSYSTEMSENGINEERING NationwideMapDatabaseandLinkReferencingSystem CTA IVHS staff are currently working to develop consensus positions on spatial (map- related) database issues. While the present collection of isolated IVHS projects is adequately served by specialized map databases, the future national IVHS system will require data standards to ensure access to data nationwide. The wide scope of IVHS applications and the variety of data required to support these applications create a unique challenge for database designers. IVHS applications require four types of data: spatial coordinates, spatial relationships, descrip- tive attributes, and time-based data. In addition, each of the major IVHS applications has application-specific data requirements, further complicating the task of assembling a national database.

Until now, database creation in support of IVHS operational tests and local IVHS instal- lations has led to the development of unique databases for each application. These databases generally lack a common definition for data items, use unique and incompatible location- referencing systems, and are not designed to permit spatial data transfer. The plethora of different scales, formats, and levels of accuracy, completeness, attribute information, and cur- rency among these databases makes sharing data virtually impossible. As a result, these databases are isolated "islands," and the data they contain usually cannot be transferred. Therefore, the creation, maintenance, and update of individual databases involve a significant effort that is often needlessly redundant. The results of this project will advance the status of a national digital database through the specification of functional and technical system requirements.

AdvancedTraffic ManagemenSyst temsTraining Simulator A central element of IVHS will be advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) to control vehicle movement on networks of urban streets and freeways. In addition to the technical challenges of implementation, ATMS will be a challenge to the operators who must learn them to manage city traffic. In a project for the Traffic Operations section of FHWA, CTA staff are designing and will implement a prototype Traffic Management Center (TMC) Training Simu- lator. The ATMS simulator will give TMC staff hands-on experience with state-of-the-practice traffic management software. Realistic operation of the traffic control software will require simultaneous operation of a computer-based microsimulation of traffic on the street network. Combined operation of the two computer programs will allow operators to experience a close approximation of events that would actually take place in a TMC.

13 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

TRAFSimulation System Computer simulation is likely to play a major role in the analysis and assessment of IVHS technologies. Since the early 1980s, ORNL has assisted FHWA with the development of the TRAF simulatior_ system, which includes the NETSIM and FRESIM microsimulation models and the NETFLO I, NETFLO II, and FREFLO macrosimulation models. ORNL's work with the traffic simulation models has focused on databases, user interfaces, and statistical analysis of the simulation output data. One recent CTA activity related to the TRAF system is development of a graphical user interface for the TRAF simulation models. ITRAF (the interactive traffic network data editor

for TRAF) is an interactive graphics program, working in the MS-Windows TM environment, that significantly simplifies the task of creating the databases to run the TRAF simulation models. The program is also designed to provide extensive and intelligent error checking to ensure the accuracy and consistency of data. This project will help to expand the usage of traffic simulation models, which up to now has been restricted because of difficulties in setting up data for those models.

Predicting Vehicle Emissions Several research projects are under way around the country to better characterize actual driving behavior and resulting vehicle emissions. Estimates by EPA indicate that transportation produces 30-40% of the emissions that lead to urban ozone pollution nationwide and 60-70% of the carbon monoxide pollution. Rules for implementing the CAAAmendments of 1990 and ISTEA will require that transportation improvements not add to air pollution in urban areas that do not meet ambient air-quality standards. As a result, transportation and air-quality planners have taken a close look at the models available for predicting how the transportation investments they make will affect emissions. What has been learned so far is that the current state of the art is simply inadequate. Existing models and methods have been shown to seriously underpredict motor vehicle emissions (perhaps by as high as a factor of 4) and to inaccurately predict how changes in traffic flow characteristics affect emissions rates. CTA staff, in cooperation with ORNL's Engineering Technology Division, are carrying out research for FHWA to develop accurate methods for predicting emissions in traffic simulation models. ORNL first convened a panel of national experts from DOT, EPA, academia, motor vehicle manufacturers, and consulting firms to help define research needs and to ensure coordination with other ongoing projects throughout the course of this research. Key issues now being addressed include (1) how to accurately and efficiently measure emissions, fuel consumption, and vehicle operating variables in a full range of operating conditions; (2) how to construct a model for accurately predicting the emissions of a given vehicle as a function of mode of operation (velocity, acceleration, and possibly other variables); and (3) how to use known vehicle parameters to extrapolate from detailed measurements on a few vehicles to the entire population of vehicles on the road. If these three objectives can be accomplished, FHWA and transportation planners across the country will be able to use traffic simulation models to meaningfully predict how transportation improvements affecting traffic flows will impact vehicular emissions.

Driver Limitations American society is undergoing a major demographic transformation that will continue into the next century. At the beginning of this decade, only 1 in every 25 persons in the United States was 65 years of age or older. However, the U.S. Bureau of Census projects that individuals 65 or older will constitute 13.9% of the total population in 2010 and 21.8% in 2030 (see Fig. 2.3). Furthermore, the number of older persons licensed to drive continues to increase steadily.

14 Center for Transportation Analysis

Fig. 2.3. U.S. m1_901 population

2s.oo _,oo rJ2o3o, for 1990, 2010, 20.0030.00t=oso te.7(=,so 1o.Doo2OlOl projectionsand 2030. by age r.oo 17.8o t6.1o 15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00 <15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65-85 8,5+

Age Group

Although older drivers travel fewer miles than the rest of the population, they drive more miles than their same-age counterparts of past years. The graying of America has captured the attention of policymakers and researchers, and the balance between the mobility and safety of older drivers has become a crucial social issue.

In 1986, Congress passed the Surface Transportation Assistance Act, calling for a TRB study of the safety and mobility of older drivers. Results from that study call for reevaluation of license screening and testing practices to better identify older drivers who have physiological and psychological functional impairments that affect their ability to drive safely. Much research has been devoted to examining the older population's driving behavior, age-related physiological and psychological changes, accident patterns, and involvement rate in traffic accidents. However, little has been done to relate functional and mental limitations to driving performance in terms of traffic crashes and moving violations. CTA's involvement in this highway safety area includes developing an approach that uses existing epidemiological and medical databases to statistically link age-related functional impairments and increased highway risk. Such links will be crucial in assisting licensing agencies to adopt regulations for older drivers. REFERENCES 1. S.C. Davis and S. G. Strang, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 13, ORNL-6743, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., March 1993. 2. P. Crow, "Environmental Regulation: Vice Squeezing U.S. Refineries," Oil and GasJournal, April 13, 1992. 3. D.L. Greene and P. N. Leiby, The Social Coststo the U.S. of Monopolization of the World Oil Market, 1972-1991, ORNL-6744, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., March 1993.

15 Environmental Analysisand AssessmentSection

EAAS conducts applied research in the physical and social sciences and prepares EAsand EISs for a variety of federal agencies to comply with NEPA. Our past NEPA activities have allowed us to develop special expertise in emergency management, radioactive waste management, siting and characterization of geohydrologic systems for waste disposal facilities, contaminant transport modeling in atmospheric and aqueous systems, public acceptance of hazardous technologies, institutional mechanisms for managing complex technologies, analysis of socioeconomic impacts of technological change on communities, and environmental decision making on a global scale. We specialize in research and applied work in these and related areas, both independently and in collaboration with other ORNL divisions. In FY 1993, we reorganized the section to emphasize disciplinary research objectives as well as programmatic activities. WASTEMANAGEMENT,SAFETYANALYSIS,ANDENVIRONMENTALRESTORATION Staff throughout the section have participated in activities related to waste management, safety analysis, and environmental restoration (ER). Major activities in FY 1993 included management and implementation of ER activities for Waste Area Grouping 1 (WAG 1) and the Groundwater Operable Unit at ORNL, further development of the performance assessment for Solid Waste Storage Area 6 (SWSA 6) at ORNL, continued involvement with consequence analysis of the Safety Analysis Report Upgrade for the Paducah and Portsmouth Gaseous Dif- fusion Plants, and applied research on imaging. Social scientists in the Human Systems and Technology Group continue to participate in these activities and have prepared proposals to Energy Division Annual Progress Report

develop work on such groundbreaking issues as public involvement and environmental equity related to waste management and ER projects.

EnvironmentaiRestoration Program l F_,AASgeoscientists provide technical support to the ORNL ER Program in planning site investigations and interpreting data gathered for the ORNL site. The ORNL ER Program oversees implementation of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) process for closure and remediation of contaminated sites at ORNL under the terms of a Federal Facilities Agreement with EPA and the Tennessee Department of Health and Environment. In addition to planning site investigations for WAG 1, which encompasses the main ORNL research and industrial facilities, F_.AASstaff members maintain the technical lead for the ORNL Groundwater Operable Unit, which encompasses the entire ORNL site. This programmatic involvement includes preparation of investigation plans, analysis and management of data, preparation of technical reports, and provision of technical recommendations to the ER Program managers. During FY 1993, EAAS geoscientists prepared the Phase II Remedial Investigation (RI) Groundwater Work Plan at WAG 1 for the ORNL ER Program, l prepared portions of the RI Work Plan for the ORNL Groundwater Operable Unit, provided technical support to the WAG 5 manager in directing hydrogeologic investigations, and participated in an empowered team established to plan and implement a CERCLA removal action to halt contaminated groundwater discharges into Melton Branch adjacent to WAG 5. With complex geological and man-made conditions, the 150-acre WAG 1 area contains all of the former ORNL radioisotope research, production, and maintenance facilities, many of which have housed varied functions. Research for the RI Work Plan determined that groundwater contamination, principally radiological contamination, is widespread. An extensive network of undergTound pipelines and utilities has contributed to the contaminant dispersal. In addition, numerous spills and pipeline leaks, as well as the long and varied history of activities at specific ORNL facilities, complicate analysis of contaminant migration pathways and source identification. RI Work Plan research also identified an uncontrolled release of groundwater contamination through a narrow strata-bound flow pathway, which transports groundwater flow in a strongly oblique orientation from the hydraulic gradient of the general area. This plume is a prime example of the strong influence local geology has on groundwater flow processes within the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). A key integrator in the ORNL ER Program, the ORNL Groundwater Operable Unit will have a long-term role in assessing groundwater contamination conditions across the ORNL site. The long-term RI will investigate the groundwater flow system and contaminant migration processes and will culminate with a risk assessment for potential exposure to humans and the environment based on analyzing various contaminant exposure pathways and identifying remedial alternatives.

Waste Management and Safety Program EAAS staff provide technical support to the Energy Systems Waste Management Program in regulatory compliance and planning for future waste management activities. During FY 1993, F_.A,_Sstaff led and provided major contributions to the performance assessment for SWSA6._ This performance assessment provides the technical basis for demonstrating compliance with the performance objectives required by DOE Order 5820.2A. Advances incorporated into the performance assessment include uncertainty analysis using Bayesian analysis and a mechanistic

18 Envi'_gnmental Analysis and Assessment Section

evaluation of the source term from disposed wastes. EAAS staff have helped establish a basis for determining equitable management of waste disposal across the DOE complex. EAAS staff also contributed to the revision of the DOE order for radioactive waste management, as well as a strategy for waste management for Energy Systems. These ongoing activities should bring about the next generation of disposal facilities and waste management plans for the ORR. EAAS staff also provide support to the Gaseous Diffusion Plant Safety Analysis Upgrade Program. The privatization of gaseous diffusion plant operations and the creation of the U.S. Enrichment Corporation have required significant programmatic changes to meet the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) certification of plant operational safety. In FY 1993, EAAS staff prepared documentation describing tile site characteristics of the Portsmouth and Paducah facilities as well as the waste management and facility safety programs at the two plants, a-5These efforts led to identification of improvements needed to ensure safe and effective programs at the plants; further, this process now forms the basis for evaluating consequences of accidents during plant operations. Additional activities were undertaken to support plant certification by the NRC in ensuring safety from natural phenomena including floods, seismic events, and meteorological events. Potential remedial actions in response to these investigations are under consideration.

GeophysicaImagingl Underground imaging has been an ongoing effort at ORNL over the past decade. Applications have been developed for locating buried waste, buried unexploded ordnance, tunnels, and other underground structures. Historically, these efforts dealt with problems in the imaging of subsurface features with propagating waves. Specifically, this work has been based on the intera_.don of these waves with inhomogeneities. This particular tbrm of subsurface imaging has become known as "geophysical diffraction tomography" (GDT). More recently, the concept of GDT has grown to include the imaging of a statistical parameter, the probability of the existence and location of a specified underground feature. In addition, the definition of GDT has been expanded to consider methods of imaging and statistical detection that employ nonwave energy forms. This past year has seen a number of new developments, one of which involves enhanced signal-processing algorithms for ground-penetrating rad_," '_, _).6 This geophysical method is widely used but is frequently ineffective because, in IllOSt circumstances, soil and rock attenuate radar waves. GPR applications have previously been limited to sites where targets of interest are quite shallow or where geological conditions are conducive to radar wave penetration. EAAS staff developed a new signal-processing algorithm that has proved capable of detecting and locating buried targets at greater depths. A second effort involved development of an integrated real-time, in-field, hardware/software system for GDT imaging using seismic reflection. This system was applied at a site in the northern part of Israel's Negev Desert, where archaeologists suspected the existence of subterranean rooms and tunnels left behind by a prehistoric culture. Figure 3.1 is a three-dimensional rendering of individual images of a hillside at this site provided by the new system. The rendering clearly shows a number of underground rooms and connecting tunnels, along with several surface features. On the basis of surface manifestations evident in this rendering, archaeologists excavated the area and subsequently discovered an access tunnel to an isolated room. Other surface features excavated on the basis of the rendering proved to be prehistoric fire pits.

19 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Fig. 3.1. Three- dimensional rendering of imaged subterranean rooms and tunnels, created using techniques in geophysical diffraction tomography.

EMERGENCYMANAGEMENT ChemicalStockpileEmergencyPreparednessProgram Energy Division's emergency management work is funded primarily by the U.S. Army and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program (CSEPP). ORNL has provided technical support to CSEPP since 1989, building on the section's interdisciplinary strengths, which draw expertise from other groups within the section, other divisions at ORNL, and subcontract staff from UT. In FY 1993, we continued that support in the areas of planning, automation, training, public affairs, and exercises. ORNL also supported the program by conducting various workshops for state and local participants in CSEPP. One significant accomplishment is our development of a method to evaluate various protective action strategies for chemical accidents, which resulted in the Protective Action Dose Reduction Estimator model. 7 This model generically characterizes the principal protective actions available to emergency planners. A second activity has been the preliminary screening evaluation of principal emergency-response options. These activities are supporting the development of a model that operates in real-time accidents to assist emergency managers in making decisions about protective actions. As additional major accomplishments in FY 1993, the group

• published the CSEPP Planning Guidanceand Standards,8 • conducted the National CSEPP Workshop in Baltimore (May 1993), • conducted a technical workshop in planning and automation in Denver (March 1993), and • assisted in preparing the CSEPP Emergency Exercise Plan.9

The Disaster Management and Mitigation Group provided extensive technical support on training to FEMA for CSEPP. This work allowed ORNL to provide a variety of technical support services, including technical consultation and review, program development, course development and modification, training material design, computer graphics, and interactive

2O Environmental Analysis and Assessment Section

training. This work has greatly increased our ability to develop computer-based multimedia applications and products in the future. Work in FY 1993 planted the seed for a multimedia computer laboratory currently under development. Major CSEPP training accomplishments in FY 1993 included development of

• the ACT FAST training course and video for emergency medical responders; 1°'11 • the Chem Awareness Course, a general introduction to CSEPP; 12 • a draft training course on risk communication for CSEPP; 13 and • a draft training course on technical planning for CSEPP.14

The Emergency Planning Group played a key role in developing exercises for CSEPP, following program guidance issued early in 1992 (which was revised based on the exercise experience). 1_18 An exercise workshop was held December 15-16 in the Chicago area to collect ideas and suggestions from the U.S. Army, FEMA, and contractor personnel who have firsthand experience conducting the exercises. Also, a survey form was developed and mailed to depot, state, and local program representatives to solicit input from the exercise participants. Survey responses were analyzed and summarized in an August report. A multiagency work group then met to determine the direction of the changes. ORNL prepared a first draft of the revision, excluding the exercise objectives, in early September. EnvironmentalSampiingDesign The DOD Authorization Act of 1986 (Public Law 99-145) directed and authorized the Secretary of Defense to destroy the U.S. stockpile of lethal unitary chemical munitions and agents (e.g., M-55 rockets). The current target year for completing the disposal is 2004. In the event of a chemical warfare agent release during any stage of disposal, environmental monitoring data quantifying the extent and magnitude of agent contamination will be necessary to support decisions regarding reentry into potentially contaminated areas. One key concern is the development of representative sampling strategies that aid in the decision-making process regarding reentry into, or environmental restoration of, any areas potentially exposed to agent plumes. If field sample collection or monitoring does not use a sufficiently rigorous design protocol, the potential for allowing access to an area containing toxic concentrations of agent could be high. A joint research effort funded by the U.S. Army and FEMA and conducted by ORNL research staff in the Energy, Health Sciences Research, and Engineering Physics and Mathe- matics divisions developed a procedure to address this concern. The approach was two-tiered:

• To predict the pattern and distribution of agent deposition on the landscape by employing an existing air-dispersion model (D2PC) used by the U.S. Army. Model output was modified by geographic adjustment factors that accounted for terrain and vegetation influences on deposition. • To develop a sequential sampling plan for quickly characterizing agent contamination boundaries and "hot spots" based on input data from the model's prediction of agent deposition.

The study determined that preliminary estimation of contamination density (the mass of agent deposited per unit area, often expressed in units of mg/m 2) by using a deposition model

21 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

such as D2PC is a critical first step prior to mobilization of field sampling teams. The sampling strategy uses the adjusted contamination density values in a classification loop. The effects of total sample number, cluster size (the number of samples collected for each sample cell), lag (delay between sample collection and availability of analytical results), and confidence intervals are each considered, and sample cells are classified as "acceptable for reentry," "unacceptable for reentry," or "undetermined." Results indicate that an iterative process best reduces uncertainty in cell classification. 19

Other Emergency Management Activities The Disaster Management and Mitigation Group continues to conduct a wide range of applied research, including evacuation feasibility studies; public response to warnings; evacuation of schools, hospitals, and nursing homes; definition of emergency planning zones; post- disaster audits of responder and organizational performance; effectiveness of warning systems; an evaluation of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program; 2° an assessment of the impact sea-level rise has on coastal hazard mitigation; and development of accident detection systems, atmospheric dispersion models, and criteria for reentry into contaminated areas. The Emergency Planning Group developed a tabletop exercise to aid in preparation for the third Federal Field Exercise. When the exercise was cancelled shortly before the tabletop was held, ORNL began converting the material into a package to assist other planners in conducting tabletop exercises dealing with the federal response to a radiation accident. EAAS staff prepared a draft emergency management plan for DOE's Office of Defense Programs to use in the event of operational emergencies concerning Defense Program facilities or activities. To gain a better understanding of the headquarters response, ORNL helped conduct exercises at the headquarters Emergency Operations Center in conjunction with exercises at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Pantex Plant (facilities for which the Office of Defense Programs is responsible). ORNL staff served as lead controllers, simulators, or evaluators for the exercises and prepared the headquarters scenario for the Y-12 Plant exercise.

EAAS staff also provided assistance to the DOE Nevada Operations Office and its contractor, EG&G Energy Measurements, Inc. Two staff members assisted with the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center exercise (FRMAC '93), held in Omaha in June (this exercise was scheduled after the Federal Field Exercise was canceled). Research was initiated for a course to explain the DOE role when it is the lead agency under the Federal Radiological Emergency Response Plan. As part of this effort, an ORNL representative observed activities at the Hanford Plant exercise in September. NEPAPROJECTS EAAS staff continue their lead role in preparing NEPA documents for federal agencies. We provide overall project management responsibility for preparing these NEPA documents and contribute technical expertise in such areasas air quality, geology, surface water and groundwater hydrology, socioeconomics, and culturalresources. These interdisciplinary projects involve technical teams drawnfrom the Energy, Environmental Sciences, and Health Sciences Research divisions, as well as other ORNL divisions and subcontractors as needed.

Our NEPA projects involve preparing integrated assessments of complex environmental issues over a wide spectrum of geographic areas. Our sponsors during FY 1993 included DOE, NRC, the U.S. Army and Air Force, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the National Park Service. Table 3.1 lists major NEPA

22 Environmental Analysis and Assessment Section

Table 3.1. National Environmental Policy Act work in FY 1993

Project a Sponsor b Status

Environmental Impact Statement,_ He_ly Clean Coal Project DOE Preliminary Final Environmental Impact Statement (PFEIS) submitted to sponsor Des Moines Energy Center Clean Coal Project DOE Project on hold Rocky Flats Residue Elimination Project DOE Preparing Implementation Plan and materials for Preliminary Draft Environmental Impact Statement (PDEIS) Hawaii Geothermal Project DOE Implementation Plan completed; preparing PDEIS Lower Mokelumne River Project FERC PFEIS submitted to sponsor Nooksack River Basin FERC PDEIS revised; awaiting resolution of issues with U.S. Forest Service

Skagit River Basin FERC PDEIS revised; awaiting resolution of issues with U.S. Forest Service

Umatilla Army Depot U.S. Army Final EIS completed, but release to public on indefinite hold

Environmental Assessments Kansas City Plant Environmental Resto:'ation Allied Signal Draft Environmental Assessment (EA) Program submitted Kansas City Plant Separate Wastewater Allied Signal Draft EA under revision Treatment

HFIR Spent Fuel Reracking DOE Final EA awaiting approval CH-TRU and RH-TRU facilities at ORNL DOE Final EA awaiting approval Coal Gasification Project at Fort Martin, DOE Draft EA under review West Virginia DOE's Oil Research Program DOE Draft EA completed; awaiting decision by DOE to publish Melton Valley Storage Tank DOE Draft EA under review Melton Valley Low-Level Liquid Waste System DOE Draft EA under review Upgrade Bulk-Contaminated Soil Facility DOE Draft EA under review Interim Cask Storage Facility DOE Draft EA under review Class III and IV Storage DOE Draft EA under review Phase I of CFC Replacement at Uranium DOE Draft EA submitted; project on hold Enrichment Facilities Skagit River FERC Under revision New Don Pedro Project FERC EA under preparation

aHFIR = High Flux Isotope Reactor; CH-TRU = contact-handled transuranic waste; RH-TRU = remote-handled transuranic waste; ORNL = Oak Ridge National Laboratory; CFC = chlorofluorocarbon. _DOE = U.S. Department of Energy; FERC = Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

23 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

projects in FY 1993. The following sections discuss several areas of our NEPA support work in more detail.

RelicensingandMedificationel HydroelectricFacilities Hydropower is the most readily available, renewable, and clean domestic source of electricity in many parts of the United States. About 2400 hydroelectric dams are currently producing power in the United States. Hydroelectric power generation has certain environmental, efficiency, and economic advantages over other forms of electricity generation but also entails some potentially significant adverse environmental impacts. Generally, assessments of new hydropower projects have been performed on a project- by-project basis. However, FERC has moved toward conducting basinwide impact assessments. Because many hydro projects are small, combining them in one assessment provides a more efficient approach and enhances the assessment of potential cumulative impacts to the river basin.

About half of the existing U.S. hydropower projects are nonfederally (privately or com- mercially) owned. Nonfederal hydropower projects receive 50-year licenses from FERC and must be periodically relicensed. By assessing the environmental impacts of existing hydroelectric dams, staff from Energy Division and the Environmental Sciences Division assist FERC in the relicensing process for such facilities. During FY 1993, ORNL continued preparing NEPA documentation related to licensing actions on hydropower projects. One major project was preparation of an EIS concerning modifications to the Lower Mokelumne River Project in California (see Fig. 3.2), which were being proposed to mitigate impacts of the project on chinook salmon and steelhead trout populations in the river.21 The project consists of the Camanche and Pardee dams and reservoirs. The area's salmon and trout have experienced recent population declines and fish kills associated, in part, with discharges from the Camanche Dam. Other stresses, such as irrigation diversions and acid mine drainage, have been affecting the area's fishery resources for most of the 1900s. The current license for the Lower Mokelumne River Project allows FERC to prescribe releases and to order project modifications as necessary for the conservation and development of fish and wildlife resources. The California Department of Fish and Game and the California Sport- fishing Protection Alliance asked FERC to investigate and correct fishery impacts on the river. A wide range of mitigation measures wasproposed by the parties participating in the proceeding scoping; these actions were evaluated by the ORNL team. Recommendations include a combi- nation of flow and nonflow modifications to the existing license, new minimum flow and minimum pool elevation requirements at the Camanche Reservoir, ramping rates on dam releases, interim attraction and out-migrant spike flows, instream habitat improvements, and a series of studies and monitoring programs to determine means for solving off-site fish passageproblems. We also prepared a draft EA on the relicensing application for the Skagit River Project in Washington State. Consisting of the Ross, Diablo, and Gorge reservoirs, this project is one of only a few that involve a "settlement agreement" between the licensee and state and federal agencies and local Native American tribes concerned about project impacts. The specific terms of the agreement address environmental concerns for erosion control, fisheries, wildlife, rec- reational resources, and traditional cultural properties. The agreement proposes measures to mitigate the past and continuing environmental impacts of project operations and to enhance important nondevelopmental resources (other than electric power generation resources) in the Skagit River Basin. The ORNL team evaluated both the impacts to environmental resources and the proposed mitigation measures. Because of the steep surrounding terrain and the effects

24 Environmental Analysis and Assessment Section

Fig. 3.2. Tailwater of Camanche Dam, part of the Lower Mokelumne = River Project in California.

of slope stability on the listed resources, geology and soils were also considered. Relicensing the project in conformance with the extensive proposed enhancement measures of the agreement should produce some beneficial effects to the environment. In addition to the Skagit River EA, ORNL continued to provide assistance to FERC with ! two basinwide projects involving the construction of nine small diversion projects in the Skagit River Basin and seven in the Nooksack River Basin (also in Washington). Major issues addressed in the EA were the blocking of upstream and downstream migration of salmon and the potential destruction or modification of historic and cultural resources of the Native American tribes.

Environmental Assessmentin Antarctica Since 1988, ORNL has provided technical assistance to the NSF by performing EAs on research and support activities proposed by the U.S. Antarctic Program (USAP) (see highlight "Assessing Environmental Consequences of Blue-Ice and Compacted-Snow Runways in Antarc- tica"). The essentially pristine nature of the antarctic environment provides unique opportunities for a broad range of USAP-supported projects in the biological, environmental, and physical sciences. However, the remote location and harsh environment magnify both research and assessment problems, and solutions often require the coordinated efforts of many disciplines. In FY 1993, two FAAS staff members and one person each from the Environmental Sciences and Health Sciences Research divisions traveled to Antarctica to gain firsthand knowledge of the challenges, objectives, methods, and associated environmental issues of USAP. Dur- ing two deployments, the researchers participated in activities at McMurdo Station, USAP's principal science and logistical center located on Ross Island in East Antarctica; Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, a major astrophysical and meteorological research center; Black Island, a principal communications site; the Dry Valleys, an ecological research area; Williams Field and the Sea Ice Runway, the two seasonally operated airfields near McMurdo Station; and several remote field camps (Fig. 3.3). These staff now better understand the complex environmental issues of USAP activities. USAP's diverse list of proposed projects includes the McMurdo Station and Black Island Site Development Plans, the Dry Valleys Long-Term Ecological Research Program, the cleanup of Hallet Station, wastewater treatment at McMurdo Station, the McMurdo Station seawater intake

25 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

,,,,,, ,i , ,i i

Assessin5EnvironmentalConsequencesofBlue-iceand i;ompacted.SnowRunwaysinAntarctica

During FY 1993, ORNL's (December-February), aircraft limited ecological resources team supporting USAP pre- support is limited to ski- found there often complicate at- pared an EA on the potential equipped LC-130s and smaller tempts to determine the signifi- development of blue-ice and Twin Otters thai can land on cance of impacts. compacted-snow runways. An skiways at Williams Field near The Pegasus site may be essential component of USAP McMurdo, the South Pole Sta- considered for either blue-ice or logistic support is provided by tion, and field sites. Availability compacted-snow runways. Lo- aircraft that transport person- of runways suitable for wheeled cated about 13 krn east of Wil- nel and cargo to McMurdo, the aircraft during other parts cf liams Field on the Ross Ice Shelf South Pole, and field sites dur- the season (or, if feasibl,_,. (which is more than 60 m thick ing the austral summer season throughout the year) wor,ld and supported by several hun- (October-February). A runway greatly enhance USAP's ability dred feet of water), the site is is usually constructed on the an- to support science activities and just within the snow accumula- nual sea ice at the start of each help the program streamline its tion zone of the ice shelf. The season and is used until the sea logistic support efforts through winds are highly variable, and ice begins to deteriorate in early increased flexibility and effi- no rock is exposed. Although no December. Wheeled aircraft ciency of aircraft operations, significant wildlife resources are able to land on these annual EAAS staff faced a variety permanently present, skuas sea-ice runways (including of challenges and unique envi- (antarctic scavenging birds)and C-130 Hercules, C-141 Star ronments in carrying out this other animals (e.g., seals or Lifters, and C-5 Galaxies) pro- assessment project. In Antarc- penguins) occasionally move vide most of the air transport tica, the scientist is often forced through the area. needed for the initial stages to consider environmental im- Mount Howe and Mill (October-November) of USAP pacts in completely new con- Glacier are potential blue-ice activities each season. During texts. The expanse of the runway sites located in the the remainder of the season continent and the relatively Transantarctic Mountains at

From December to February, Antarctic aircraft support is limited to smaller ski-equipped LC.130s like this one, shown with EAAS staff member Tim Ensminger.

ii H i

26 Environmental Analysis and Assessment Section

i i ,.,,i,, i im i i, ii . i m

elevations of about 2400 m and of about 15 cm per year and are ronmental impacts are antici- 1800 m, respectively. ("Blue lost only by ablation or blowing pated). The benefits of develop- ice" refers to the scattering of toward the edge of the conti- ing such runways could include light by the large single crystals nent. The snow and ice sheet using wheeled aircraft to trans- of ice molecules; the purer the moves about 10 m/year toward port personnel to New Zealand ice, the deeper the blue.) Mount the Weddell Sea. No aquatic or at the end of each austral sum- Howe is closest to the South terrestrial ecological resources mer research season, thereby Pole at about 300 km away, are present, making more LC-130s available while the Mill Glacier site is Adverse environmental to support science during this about 540 km away. Both sites impacts that could result from time; possibly extending the are about 7 km long. Mount development and use of blue- austral summer research season Howe is limited in width by cre- ice and compacted-snow run- or allowing year-round access to vasses, while Mill Glacier is ways include contamination of McMurdo; transporting sup- bounded on the west by the ice and snow from spills of fuel, plies to the South Pole more Meyer Desert (an ice-free rock oil, and lubricants; contamina- efficiently; providing access to massif) and on the east by giant tion of pristine areas by atmos- sites that could be used as base rifts in the glacier surface. No pheric emissions from aircraft camps for major science pro- plants or animals are present at and equipment used for runway jects; and improving the safety either site. construction and maintenance; of antarctic operations. In- The South Pole, a poten- disturbance of sensitive wildlife creased use of wheeled aircraft, tial compacted-snow runway resources by low-flying aircraft; which carry more cargo and use site, is located on the Polar and degradation of the aes- less fuel, would also improve the Plateau, a snow and ice sheet thetic environment associated efficiency of support opera- about 2900 m thick. The high with remote sites where such tions. Improved efficiency could plateau causes persistent and runways would be located, reduce the number of flights predictable winds to blow The assessment found that needed and could thereby re- downslope toward the perime- development and use of blue- duce the number of personnel ter of the continent. Peak winds ice and compacted-snow run- needed to support activities in are very low in comparison with ways would have less than minor Antarctica. those in coastal areas. Snow or or transitory environmental im- ice crystals accumulate at a rate pacts (i.e., no significant envi-

quay upgrade, the development of a Fortress Rocks Waste Processing Center, pier and road repair at Palmer Station, the use of automated weather stations, the upgrade of support facilities for Williams Field and Sea Ice Runway air operations, and the reconstruction of the South Pole Station. Energy Division staff completed an EA on the development of blue-ice and compacted-snow runways. ORNL also initiated environmental analysis and documentation for several USAP activities involving weather and research balloons, explosives, and drilling.

Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program Under a mandate from Congress and in agreement with international disarmament trea- ties, the U.S. Army has been directed to destroy the entire U.S. stockpile of lethal unitary chemical munitions (i.e., those filled with nerve gas or blister agents). This stockpile is currently stored at eight Army depots in the continental United States and on Johnston Island in the Pacific Ocean.

ORNL is presently assisting the Army in conducting environmental impact assessments to support eight site-specific EISs---one for each of the eight storage depots. However, environmental work planned for FY 1993 was curtailed in response to a Congressional request that the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) prepare a study of technological alternatives to

27 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

! • Fig.._.3.EAAS stall" member Lance McCold ,_ " descends into an observation tube at the .. .a_ remote Seal Study Camp _ ° in Antarctica.

t J

the Army's preferred disposal method of high-temperature incineration. A final report issued in early 1994 summarizes the NAS recommendations.

One aspect of ORNL's work in FY 1993 was to provide input to the NAS study. ORNL developed information on the risks of continuing to store the stockpile as opposed to destroying it in the proposed incineration facilities. Requested by NAS, this information will help the Committee on Review and Evaluation of the Army Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program to evaluate the proposal to postpone stockpile disposal while awaiting the development of alternate disposal technologies. REFERENCES 1. R.R. Lee, et al., Phase II Remedial Investigation Work Plan for Groundwater at Waste Area Grouping 1 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, DOE/OR/01-1194&D l; ORNI_/ER-191&DI, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., January 1994.

2. D.W. Lee, et al., Performance Assessment for Continuing and Future Operations at Solid Waste Storage Area 6, ORNL-6783, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1994. 3. R.O. Johnson, J. c. Wang, and D. W. Lee, Local Drainage Analysis of the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, Piketon, Ohio, During an Extreme Storm, K/GDP/SAR-28, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1993.

4. R.O. Johnson, J. c. Wang, and D. W. Lee, Local Drainage Analysis of the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, Paducah, Kentucky, During an Extreme Storm, K/GDP/SAR-29, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1993.

5. D.W. Lee, et al., System Safety Analysis, Suspension of Highly Enriched Uranium Production, Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, Portsmouth, Ohio, Appendix B: Consequence Analysis for Sus- pension of Highly Enriched Uranium Operations, K/GDP/SAR-20RI, Oak Ridge National Labo- ratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., June 1993.

6. A.J. witten, A. J. Devaney, and A. Schatzberg, Enhanced Signal Processing Algorithms for Tunnel Detection, K/NSP- 108, February 1993.

28 Environmental Analysis and Assessment Section

7. J.H. Sorensen, et al., ProtectiveAction Dose Reduction Estimator (PADRE) UserManual, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., i994 (in review). 8. Federal Emergency Management Agency and U.S. Department of the Army, Planning Guidance and Standards, Washington, D.C., 1993. 9. Federal Emergency Management Agency and U.S. Department of the Army, ChemicalStock- pile EmergencyPreparednessProgram Exercises, Washington, D.C., 1994. 10. E. D. Copenhaver, A. P. Watson, and E. Sample, ACT FAST: Agent Characteristicsand Toxi- cology,First Aid and Special Treatment, ORNL/M-2097, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1992. 11. E.D. Copenhaver, et al., ChemicalStockpileAgent Characteristicsand Effects (video), produced for the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Cinetel Productions, 1993. 12. E. D. Copenhaver, et al., CSEPP ChemicalAwareness, ORNL/M-2099, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1992. 13. E.D. Copenhaver and C. J. coomer, Risk Communicationfor CSEPP, Study Guide, ORNL/M- 2835, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn. (in review). 14. W.F. Clevenger, et al., TechnicalPlanning and Evaluation Course,ORNI./M-3096, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1994 (in review). 15. K, S. Gant and M. V. Adler, Chemical Stockpile Emergency PreparednessProgram Exercises, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., February 1993. 16. K. S. Gant and M. V. Adler, Chemical Stockpile Program: Volume L Exercise Program Plan, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., February 14, 1992. 17. K. S. Gant and M. V. Adler, Chemical Stockpile Program: Volume II, Exercise Objectivesand Points of Review, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., January 9, 1992. 18. K. S. Gant and M. V. Adler, ChemicalStockpile Program: Volume III, ExerciseGuidance, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., February 14, 1992. 19. D. A. Lombardi, M. D. Morris, and A. P. Watson, Environmental Sampling Design for ReentryRestoration Decision Making Followinga Chemical Warfare Agent Release, ORNIdTM- 12461, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn. (in review). 20. J. H. Sorensen and B. M. Vogt, Earthquake Risk Reduction in the United States:An Assessment of Selected UserNeeds and Recommendationsfor the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Pro- gram, VolumeII, Draft, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Y/ES/CNPE-2, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1994. 21. M.J. Sale, et al., Final Environmental Impact Statement, ProposedModifications to the Lower Mokelumne River Project, California, FERC/FEIS-0067, Division of Project Compliance and Administration, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 1993.

29 l i

Energyand GlobalChange Analysis Section

Formed in February 1993, EGCAS conducts research to provide insights for planning, policy decisions, and assessments related to national and global energy and environmental issues. The section carries out its mission through interdisciplinary analysis in the social, economic, and decision sciences in collaboration with engineers and natural and physical scientists. Our primary goals are meeting sponsor needs and providing the best practical knowledge to assist decision makers in their pursuit of stated objectives. Most of the research staff have a Ph.D. or other advanced degree in the social sciences, mainly economics and geography. Also home to other social and engineering scientists, the section often collaborates with leading researchers in academia, industry, and other research institutions. We have a long-standing research relationship with UT and host many graduate students and two collaborating scientists who hold joint appointments with UT and ORNL. The section conducts a variety of research projects for DOE and other federal and state agencies. Much of our research is targeted at issues related to planning, policy evaluation, and assessment. Major thrusts of our research include

• technology transfer and the R&D process; • developing countries; • electric utility integrated resource planning (IRP) and demand-side management (DSM);

31 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

• environmental externalities; • energy program planning, assessment, and evaluation; • new incentive systems to meet energy and environmental goals; • planning for energy emergencies; • transitions to alternative fuels; • the socioeconomics of waste management and environmental restoration; and • regional and sectoral analyses. ENERGYANDENVIRONMENTALECONOMICS The Economics and Modeling Group, led by David J. Bjornstad, combines the development of new methodologies with analysis cf planning and policy issues. During FY 1993, research in energy and environmental economics spanned a diverse set of assessments on investment behavior, how different energy-related policy models can address potential new energy-use regulations, how public utilities can best compare options for meeting customer requi.ements, and how alternative fuels such as biomass can meet future energy needs. Within this programmatic area, staff members also collaborated on planning for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP), investigated regional development in Russia related to energy production and consumption, and assessed state and local energy emergency planning activities, in the United States. Investment behavior. Researchers are developing a theoretical literature to revise simple investment rules often applied as rules of thumb to determine when technologies become "cost- effective." This literature focuses on uncertainty, the inability to recover fixed investment, and the ability of firms and households to postpone investments in new technologies. ORNL is using an approach referred to as "laboratory experimental economics" to help determine how well this theory predicts actual behavior. Energy model assumptions. Models used to predict energy savings and other measures of behavioral change brought about by energy regulations are being examined and compared to determine why specific models yield different results. Early results suggest that sufficient information to determine these answers can be gained only by running the models and perhaps only by third-party "forumlike" comparisons. This work is carried out for the DOE Policy Office to help reconcile the different answers that proponents of various policy options generate using different models.

IRP in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The principles of IRP were used to estimate the relative financial and economic attractiveness of generating plants and DSM programs available to the Water and Power Authority in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The study concluded in part that commercial lighting and solar water-heating DSM programs are especially cost-effective for power systems in the Virgin Islands. This step is the first of several in a larger activity to implement an IRP system for the islands. 1 Biomasl energy systems. Several studies were initiated to evaluate the viability of biomass energy systems both to meet electric power needs and to offset carbon emissions. Initial studies have been assessing the status of the current technology and those developments likely to occur over the next 20 years. Studies also are examining potential environmental and developmental benefits of these systems and how these values can affect financial and economic viability. In addition, researchers are examining the economics ofbiomass crop production and the potential

32 Energy and Global Change Analysis Section

for such feedstocks to substitute for coal at major public utilities like the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA).2-4 NAPAP. A group composed of several organizations arranged an international workshop that focused on strategies for conducting NAPAP assessments in 1996 and every 4 years there- after as part of the 1990 CAAAmendments. Section staff members emphasized the incorporation of social and economic perspectives into the integrated assessment process and into the criteria used to interpret assessment findings. 5 Energy in Russia. A study is under way to examine how different choices regarding energy development by the Russian central government can affect the distribution of economic growth among Russia's regions. This study is concerned with how alternative choices to develop crude oil reserves and to implement energy-saving technologies, coupled with subsequent policies to capture "economic rents" from production, can affect the willingness of regional governments to cooperate with central activities. This study emphasizes how choices will affect the equity of rent redistributions and encourage cohesiveness or divergence among geographic areas. State energy emergency planning. For some time, we have carried out energy emergency planning activities related to state and federal interactions. This past year, together with Hobe Corporation, we developed a number of state prototype energy emergency plans and are working to produce a prototype energy emergency implementation plan. In addition, the activity is producing an earthquake planning guide and is examining how DOE might provide leadership to encourage effective energy emergency planning among its contractor-managed facilities. ECONOMICSANDMODELING The Economics and Modeling Group, headed by Russell Lee, combines the development of new methodologies with analysis of planning and policy issues. In FY 1993, the section's economics and modeling work focused on the following four main areas. Integrated assessment of the energy sector, the environment, and economic considerations. The group led the U.S.-European Commission study of fuel cycle externalities (see highlight "Estimating the Externalities of Fuel Cycles"). In a spin-off of that study, the group reviewed the state of the art in economic valuation of environmental risks associated with DOD projects. Also, the group initiated research on two projects under DOE's Economics of Global Change Program. One project is developing a new methodology for modeling energy, environmental, and economic systems that evolve over time. The other project is extending William Nordhaus's well-known model of the economy and climate change by incorporating energy sectors and endogenous technological change. _'7 Analysis of energy supply and demand. Alternative fuels such as methanol, compressed natural gas, and biomass (as a feedstock for both liquid fuels and electric power generation) could emerge in the near future as significant sources of energy. This past year, the group developed an enhanced version of the Alternative Fuels Trade Model, which the DOE Policy Office used to assess the viability of alternative transportation fuels. The group also developed biomass modules for the National Energy Modeling System and continued its support of planning activities for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. On the demand side, the group analyzed a major commercial building retrofit program and found it to be cost-effective for smaller projects that have retrofits with big returns. 8-1° Assessments of alternative technologies. The Economics and Modeling Group combines engineering and economic methods to assess technological options. This past year, we assessed molten salt technology for hazardous waste disposal, automobile recycling, and selected

33 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

energy-conserving technologies. Our study on automobile recycling concluded that the changing material composition of automobiles will contribute to an increase (not a decrease, as is com- monly suspected) in the quantity of energy that is retrieved at the recycle step (Fig. 4.1). Energy savings from high-Btu aluminum will more than compensate for energy lost from the disposal of automotive plastics. The study also concluded that developmental technologies to recycle automobiles will have little impact on the energy that is retrieved at the recycle step. In addition, the study concluded that the quantities of automobile shredder residue will remain small relative to other waste streams under the status quo or alternative recycle scenarios.ll

Economic analysis of transportation systems. The group participated in a study of the effects of highway infrastructure (and the services provided by that infrastructure) on economic productivity. The study found significant benefits fi'om urban highway infrastructure and maintenance. The study also highlighted the need for more research on the systemwide, interregional benefits of rural highways. 12 GLOBALSTUDIES The Global Studies Group, headed by Carl Petrich, works with other parts of the section and Energy Division to meet sponsor needs for analyses and insights related to energy, resource, and environmental policy and decision making. FY 1993 projects include the following highlights. Environmental screens for renewable energy in Indonesia. For the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the World Bank, the Global Studies Group developed environmental screening tools and procedures to expedite sectoral reviews of small renewable energy projects. The study demonstrated that World Bank and Indonesian review systems can be synchronized with one set of documents to facilitate implementation of projects whose impacts are readily known, understood, and manageable. A scoping and screening methodology was developed to identify projects needing thorough review, and a series of generic sectoral review documents was formulated to address whole classes of similar projects having similar impacts. Mitigation techniques capturing best professional practice were codified and integrated into the approach.13

Fig. 4.1. A study of

concluded that 8oo Manufacturing increases in energy _ 700 Disposal automobileconsumptionrecyclingfor a. _. 600 Ii Use automobile __ _m 500 manufacturing will be E overshadowed both by ._ ._ 400 reductions in energy ® 300

consumptionduringthe _ ZOO life of the vehicle and by _ > lOO increased energy w savings from o automobile recycling. -1 oo -39 -38 -38 -47 -55 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 ModelYear

34 Energy and Global Change Analysis Section

Telecommuting. In response to the Energy Policy Act of 1992, the group collaborated with CTA in assessing (1) the implications of widespread telecommuting on urban traffic congestion, latent travel demand, and urban densities for energy use, emissions, and highway needs; (2) the broader relationships between telecommunications and transportation, and the implications for technology initiatives like the information highway; and (3) the potential social impacts of widespread telecommunications. The group determined that substantially increased levels of telecommuting appear capable of producing significant benefits in the form of reduced delays, reduced motor fuel consumption, reduced needs for highway capacity expansion, and reduced emissions. Among the social impacts examined, those likely to be important are the changing perceptions of the separation of home and workplace; of the family, due to a greater presence of adults in the home; and of residential communities, due to a greater presence of adults during daytime hours. Changes in the nature of work concern disparities between high- and low-wage telecommuters, differences between workers with the option to telecommute and those for whom it is not feasible, and the rights of management to oversee and supervise work in the home. By creating options and alternatives to the traditional peak-hour journey to work, telecommuting should reduce the cost of other strategies, such as congestion pricing and parking fees, that tax or discourage travel during peak periods. 14 Maya Biosphere Preserve. On-site in Guatemala, the group is supporting USAID and Guatemalan environmental institutions in establishing a major biosphere preserve in the Pet6n region, the largest area of rain forest in Central America. In the last 30 years, land cleared for agricultural production in the Pet6n has increased fiftyfold to a current deforestation rate of 40,000 ha per year. The project includes efforts to reduce degradation in the preserve by promoting more sustainable opportunities for economic development in the region and efforts to strengthen public and private institutions that protect the biosphere resource. ENERGYPROGRAMPLANNINGANDEVALUATION The Energy Program Planning and Evaluation Group, headed by Marilyn Brown, focuses on the design and implementation of quantitative assessments of energy efficiency and rev zw- able energy programs operated by government agencies and utilities. The following are core research issues and areas of expertise covered by the group.

• Market transformation and the adoption of new energy technologies--including the evaluation of technology commercialization, technology transfer, energy education, and energy information programs. • DSM programs--including a decade of experience evaluating DSM programs operated by electric and ga_ utilities and integrating DSM into utility resource planning. • Program design and policy analysis--including the assessment of alternative program design features and public policies, often through quasi-experimental and survey research. • Program evaluation methodologies--including the measurement of energy savings persistence, control group methodologies, and valuation of hard-to-quantify program impacts.

Wea_edzafion Assistance Program, During FY 1993, an assessment of the cost- effectiveness of the nation's largest conservation program--DOE's low-income Weatherization Assistance Program--was completed. Based on a sample of almost 15,000 dwellings weatherized by nearly 400 local agencies and a matched sample of approximately 5000 control homes, the

35 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

EstimatingtheExternalitiesofFuelCycles:AJointStudybyDOE andtheCommissionoftheEuropeanCommunities

The price that consumers small hydropower, natural gas, 5. Assess the extent, to are willing to pay for electricity and nuclear technologies, which these damages or reflects the market value of its Major products of the benefits are in fact exter- benefits. The full social cost of study are a methodological frame- nalities that are not re- generating electricity, however, work and a set of analytical tools flected in the price of includes not only its price but that can be used at each step of electric power. also its externalities. Externali- the methodology. The method- ties are effects on the welfare of ology consists of five steps: The study emphasizes that others that producers of electric externalities generally depend power do not take into account 1. Characterize the nature on the design of the power in their business decisions. Im- of the fuel cycle, estimat- plant, on its location, and on the pacts such as illness and envi- ing its major emissions extant regulations that may ronmental damage affect the and other discharges, have some of the damages al- welfare of individuals, who ex- 2. Model the dispersion of ready reflected in the price of press a willingness to pay to pollutants from fuel- electric power. For example, the avoid those impacts, cycle activities, so as to study shows that coal plants with Our study was about how estimate changes in the the same design but at different to estimate the externalities as- concentration of pollut- locations can have externalities sociated with fuel cycles. A fuel ants in the environment, from the effects of airborne pol- cycle consists of the stages in 3. Estimate environmental, lutants on health that differ by generating electric power, in- health, and any other im- two to three orders of magni- cluding mining, transportation, pacts that result from expo- tude. Population density and and waste disposal. The differ- sure to these concentrations, meteorological conditions near ent fuel cycles that this study ad- 4. Translate these impacts the power plant are mainly re- dressed were coal, biomass, oil, into monetary terms, sponsible for these differences;

i11111i_I:_

oW_

The U.S. Fuel Cycle Study team at ORNL developed a methodological framework to estimate environmental externalities associated with energy produced by coal. This methodology will be applied to nuclear, biomass, natural gas, oil, and hydro fuel cycles, as well.

36 Energy and Global Change Analysis Section

the greater the number of peo- ,injuries and fatalities from Hydro ple exposed to pollutants, the transportation accidents -minor externalities, unless greater the number of cases of sensitive habitats or highly morbidity and mortality, and Biomass valued areas are disturbed thus the greater the externalities. .health effects from particu- or intruded upon Numerical examples in late matter and ozone the study suggest that some of -road damage and accidents Natural gas the more important externali- from transporting biomass -health effects from ozone ties for different fuel cycles are feedstock to the power plant and particulate matter. as follows: Nuclear The extent of these and Coal *remediation costs from a other externalities varies con- .health effects from particu- severe accident, should one siderably, however, depending late matter, unless baseline occur on the location of the power concentrations are very low .expected effects to public plant and its pollution abate- .morbidity from exposure to health from releases of ra- ment equipment. Other exter- ozone in areas already high dioactive material during nalities may exist as well, in ozone concentration transport particularly global climate change • crop damage from ozone • occupational and public fa- and ecological damages, but sci- .road damage if trucks are talities from exposure to entific knowledge is insufficient used to transport fuel to the radon from uranium mines to quantify these effects. power plant evaluation estimated that during 1989 the program saved 17.6 MBtu per weatherized dwelling, or 18.2% of the energy used for space heating (Fig. 4.2). The net present value of this conserved energy is more than the cost of weatherization, resulting in a benefit--cost ratio of 1.09 (one measure of program performance developed in the evaluation). Current work focuses on characterizing the population of clients remaining to be served and the potential for saving more energy in participating homes. 15 Information services programs. An assessment was also completed of two information services programs operated by DOE: the National Appropriate Technology Assistance Service (NATAS) and the Conservation and Renewable Energy Inquiry and Referral Service (CAREIRS). The assessment concluded that (I) customers appear to be using information and technical assistance in diverse settings; (2) intake and response procedures can be improved to better address customer needs; (3) typical NATAS and CAREIRScustomers have higher than average incomes and high levels of formal education; and (4) customers are satisfied with the information services. Current work focuses on service quality in the development and operation of a computer network dedicated to information dissemination and technical assistance in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. Energy-Related Inventions Program. For more than a decade, the Energy Program Plan- ning and Evaluation Group has been involved in an evaluation of the Energy-Related Inventions Program (ERIP), tracing the program's economic impacts since its inception in 1976, characterizing the innovation process as it pertains to small business energy innovations, and recom- mending ways to improve the program. During FY 1993, the group designed and conducted an evaluation of ERIP that compared the progress of program participants and a matched group of program referrals. The goal was to isolate the effects of the program from the myriad other factors that influence the progress of participants. The resulting report is one of the first published accounts of applying a quasi-experimental control group design to the evaluation of a technology innovation program. 16

37 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Fig. 4.2. The GasSavings ElectricitySavings High Low National HighGas LowGas Electricity Electricity Weatherization Users Users Users Users

found that Cold_> i .4,o44 savings follow II ' ' , .1,., _t [-----J waste:EvaluationMore ,,tl i!I__ _ '_'I'°'4°_ energy is saved

more energy : : indwellingsprior to _ _ .32 iii_ _ weatherization. :.111, "

INTEGRATEDRESOURCEPLANNING Our research on electric utility IRP, headed by Eric Hirs(, continues (o focus on a few key issues, including the data and methods that utilities use to conduct their planning, especially the treatment of uncertainty; the role of nonutility parties (especially environmental groups) in shaping those resource plans; factors that affect the desirability and performance of DSM programs; and the possible future direction of the electric power industry and its effect on IRP and DSM. As in past years, our work is very much applied. We maintain close contacts with potential and actual users of our research, including utilities, state regulatory commissions, other state agencies, and DOE.

TaxandRegulatoryTreatmentofRenewableEnergy One project, conducted for DOE's Office of Policy, Planning and Program Evaluation, analyzed the effects of tax and regulatory treatment on utility selection of renewable energy resources. 17 In response to a requirement of the Energy Policy Act of 1992, the study examined seven renewable technologies and four conventional technologies. Tax credits, property tax, state and local income taxes, and federal income tax (as well as fuel-adjustment clauses, allow- ance of construction work in progress, and other elements of state regulation) were examined for their effects on the costs of each of these resources. Property taxes penalize high-capital-cost renewable resources such as photovoltaics and wind. On the other hand, tax credits and accelerated depreciation for federal income tax purposes provide incentives for such resources. DSMandStatisticalRecoupling A related project analyzed the monetary losses that utilities experience between rate cases when they run DSM programs. Simply put, the more electricity a utility sells between rate cases, the more money it makes for its shareholders. (The reverse also holds true.) Statistical recoupling (SR) is a new method we developed to address this problem. 18 SR decouples electric revenue from sales and then recouples revenues to the determinants of electricity sales. These determinants typically include local weather conditions (heating and cooling degree days), economic conditions (personal income or industrial production), electricity price, and perhaps a few other factors. We tested this approach with data from five utilities, and the results were

38 Energy and Global Change Analysis Section

surprisingly good. They show that implementation of SR would remove the disincentive to utility DSM programs in current regulation and would cause only minor year-to-year changes in electricity prices. DEVELOPINGCOUNTRYRESEARCH Overview The division's developing country work resides in the Developing Country Programs Office, headed by Tom Wilbanks. In FY 1993, our developing country work continued its focus on energy-efficiency improvement, environmental management, energy supply alternatives to high-carbon fossil fuels (especially biomass), and such cross-cutting issues as institution-building and technology cooperation. One important activity this year was maintaining a major role in DOE's new program for Assisting the Deployment of Energy Practices and Technologies (ADEPT), including projects (1) to develop a more energy-elTlcient generation of home refrigerators in India, in coiiaboration with the International Institute of Energy Conservation (IIEC) and the Tata Energy Research Institute (TERI), which was also supported by the United States- Asia Environmental Partnership (US-AEP), and (2) to assess project priorities and analytical tools for improving transportation energy efficiency in developing countries, also in collaboration with IIEC. The office also continued to coordinate two significant long-term projects in Guatemala; supported a DOE effort to develop ideas about an international Energy Efficiency Strategy Assistance Program; assisted DOE's Office of Technical Assistance, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, in creating an industry counterpart for the new interagency Committee on Energy Efficiency Commerce and Trade; supported USAID's Office of Energy and Infrastructure in a project to reconsider relationships between U.S. national science policy and energy/environmental technical assistance to developing countries; and completed a project for that same office related to renewable energy applications.

IndiaRefrigeratorProject The India Refrigerator Project is a particularly good example of a distinctive role for a national laboratory in international technology cooperation (Fig. 4.3). Although India has a total population of about 850 million, including the largest middle class of any single country in the world, only about 9 million refrigerators are currently used in Indian homes. The number of home refrigerators is growing at a rate of more than 20%per year, at least in nonrecessionary years, and the market for refrigerator sales in India over the next several decades will be enormous, growing to a forecasted 110 million units in use by 2010. Meanwhile, in September 1992, India signed the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer, as amended, and the country has eased its restrictions on the activities of foreign ill'ms within India, including U.S. firms. Considering all these emerging trends, DOE/ADEPT and US-AEP initiated a collaborative U.S./Indian effort to identify and implement refrigeration technologies for the Indian market that will reduce chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions, aiming toward commercial development through U.S./Indian private-sector joint ventures. If successful, the results would amount to a win/win situation for both the United States and India (1) by reducing CFC emissions associated with a rapidly growing source and other greenhouse gas emissions from the electric power generation, largely based on coal, associated with electricity requirements for refrigeration in India; and (2) by opening up opportunities for U.S. firms in meeting Indian consumer demands in a very large, rapidly emerging energy technology market.

39 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

i Fig. 4.3. Indian home _" refrigerators like these (manufactured by Keivinator, Ltd., in Faridabad, India) are only about half as efficient as comparable U.S. refrigerators.

The project includes two major components, both in collaboration with TERI: technology adaptation, led by ORNL, and market conditioning, led by IIEC. During the latter part of FY 1993, preparations were being made for a U.S. industry familiarization visit to India, the testing at ORNL of several representative Indian refrigerators to enable a preliminary assessment of efficiency improvement potentials, an Indian industry familiarization visit to the United States, and a joint U.S./Indian, public/private-sector identification of technology strategies and I roles. On the market conditioning side, the development and implementation of appliance performance standards in India were being explored, along with a prototype program for an electricity DSM strategy in a candidate Indian state. JOINTINSTITUTEFORENER6YANDENVIRONMENT The Joint Institute for Energy and Environment (JIEE) harnesses the collective capabilities of ORNL, TVA, and UT to address energy and environmental issues. JIEE brings the specialized expertise and facilities of its constituent institutions together to conduct policy and scientific technological research, to foster technology transfer and training, and to provide information and analysis needed by domestic and foreign governments at all levels, international organizations, and the private sector. JIEE provides a convenient access point for collaborative ventures involving the facilities and people of ORNL, TVA, and UT. Eliminating many institutional barriers that otherwise make collaborative activities difficult or impossible, JIEE increases efficiency by matching tasks to the most appropriate professional with minimum administrative cost. Each of the institutions has strengths that can be combined to provide full-service expertise to perform tasks that are beyond the capability of any one of the institutions acting alone. Skills and facilities---from theoretical research, through laboratory explorations, to full-scale demonstration projects---are combined with expertise in policy and social sciences. Specialists are available at each stage as collaborators or consultants, with the task needs defining particular roles. JIEE can receive funding for research projects and other activities related to its mission from state and federal government sources, international organizations, foreign governments, foundations, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector. Additionally, JIEE receives

40 Energy and Global Change Analysis Section

funding for research and other projects from the parent institutions themselves (when JIEE is deemed the appropriate mechanism for conducting these activities). At present, the offices of the JIEE director and staff are located on UT's Knoxville campus. The current director is Milton Russell, a professor of economics at UT and a Collaborating Scientist at ORNL attached to EGCAS. REFERENCES 1. L.J. Hill, et al., Integrated Assessmentof ElectricPower in the U.S. Virgin Islands, ORNI/I'M- 12186, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., February 1994. 2. M. Downing, "Evaluating a Biomass Resource: The TVA Region-Wide Biomass Resource Assessment Model," in Proceedingsof the First BiomassConferenceof the Americas, Burlington, Vt., August 1993. 3. M. Downing, "The Role of Natural Resource and Environmental Economics in Determining the Trade-Offs in Consumption and Production of Energy Inputs," in Proceedingsof the First Biomass Conferenceof the Americas, Burlington, Vt., August 1993. 4. M. Downing, "Renewable Biomass Energy: Understanding Regional-Scale Environmental Impacts," in Proceedingsof the First BiomassConferenceof theAmericas, Burlington, Vt., August 1993.

5. D. Winstanley, et al., Draft OperatingPlan of theNational Acid PrecipitationAssessmentProgram, December 15, 1993. 6. J. Kahn, et al., Methods for Incorporating Environmental and Health Risks into Army Project Evaluation, Draft, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., January 1994. 7. R. Cantor/R. Lee, et al., U.S.-EC Fuel CycleStudy: Background Document to the Approach and Issues, ORNIJM-2500, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., November 1992. 8. P. Leiby, A Methodologyfor Assessingthe Market BenefitsofAlternative Motor Fuels,ORNL-6771, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., September 1993. 9. P. Leiby and D. W.Jones, DIS-Risk Modelfor SPR Analysis, Model Documentation and Bench- marking Res_dts, First Draft, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., October 1993.

10. J. M. MacDonald, D. Trumble, and J. Farley, "Evaluation of a Lighting Program for Small Commercial and Industrial Buildings in the Northeast," in Proceedingsfor Energy Program Evaluation: Uses,Methods, and Results, 1993 International Energy Program Evaluation Con- ference, August 1993. 11. T. R. Curlee, et al., Recent Trends in AutomobileRecycling:An Energyand EconomicAssessment, ORNL/TM-12628, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., March 1994. i 12. D.W. Jones, et al., Performance-BasedMeasures ofthe Transportation-ProductivityLinkag,,_Draft Report on Phase II, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., September 1993. 13. C. H. Petrich and R. E. Saylor, Environmental Screeningfor the RenewableEnergy Component of the Indonesia Second Rural ElectrificationProjec# Volume 1: Overview and Methodologyand Volume 2: Appendices A-E, prepared for the World Bank, Asia Alternative Energy Unit (ASTAE), Asia Technical Department, in collaboration with the U.S. Agency for Interna-

41 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

tional Development, Bureau for Research and Development, Office of Energy and Infra- structure; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., final draft, August 1993. 14. D. L. Greene, E. L. Hillsman, and A. K. Wolfe, Energy and Emissions Consequences of Tele- commuting, Draft, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1994.

15. M.A. Brown, et al., National Impacts of the Weatherization Assistance Program in Single-Family and Small Multifamily Dwellings, ORNL/CON-326, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., May 1993. 16. M.A. Brown, et al., A Comparison Group Analysis of DOE's Energy-Related Inventions Program, ORNI_/CON-365, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., June 1993.

17. S.W. Hadley, L.J. Hill, and R. D. Perlack, Report on the Study of the Tax and Rate Treatment of Renewable Energy Projects, ORNL-6772, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., December 1993.

18. E. Hirst, Statistical Recoupling: A New Way to Break the Link Between Electric-Utility Sales and Revenues, ORNI_/CON-372, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., September 1993.

42 Efficiencyand Renewables George E. Courville, Section Head Research Section

ERRS combines diverse staff capabilities and unique research facilities to help DOE, U.S. industry, and other customers identify and solve problems relating to building systems, environmental control, and energy delivery. ERRS organizes and participates in partnerships with industry, government agencies, academia, and international organizations. Major programs within ERRS involve energy efficiency in buildings and power T&D. Programs related to buildings include heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems; refrigeration; district heating, cooling, and cogeneration; building envelopes and materials; alternatives to CFCs and hydroctllorofluorocarbons (ttCFCs); and audit, retrofit, and rehabilitation of existing buildings. Power systems research includes real-time power control, high-vohage direct-current (de) transmission, health effects of 60-I Iz eleclromagnetic fields (EMFs), and power-delivery policy issues.

Ill 1993, ERRS established the Buildings Technology Center (BTC), a national user facility, to more aggressively promote integration of building technologies and industry partnerships. ERRS also provides technical support to international programs in several world sectors, participates in sustainable development and green buildings activities, and will play a significant role in DOE initiatives that support the Energy Policy Act of 1992 and the Climate Change Action Plan (see highlight "Sharing ORNL Expertise Through the Buildings Technology Center"). BUILDINGEOUIPMENTECHT NOLOGYPROGRAM The Building Equipment Technology (BET) Progranl focuses on the development and deployment of technology for more efficient heating and cooling and refrigeration equipment used in residential and commercial buildings. The program is also contributing to U.S. industry's

43 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

transition from CFC and HCFC refrigerants to acceptable, atmospherically safe alternatives that provide equal or better energy efficiency. The BET Program maintains strong ties with industry and is actively working with individual companies, industry consortia, and major trade associations on several current cooperative research and development agreements (CRADAs). Sponsors also include the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the Gas Research Institute. Major program areas include thermally activated heat pumps (TAHPs) and advanced refrigeration systems.

ThermallyActivatedHeatPumps TAHP efforts focus on promising natural-gas technologies that target various heating and cooling market segments. The residential natural gas heat pumps to be introduced in the 1996-1997 market represent a major breakthrough in heating efficiency over today's most advanced gas furnaces and do not require ozone-depleting CFCs. Advanced gas-fired absorption chiller technology for large commercial buildings is also under development. ],_ This year, a milestone of major significance was achieved in the TAHP program. Carrier, the world's leading manufacturer of heating and cooling equipment, obtained a license to com- mercially develop and market the DOE/Phillips Engineering gas absorption heat pump technology, culminating a 10-year effort by DOE and ORNL to develop the residential generator-absorber heat exchange (GAX) cycle absorption heat pump technology through Phil- lips Engineering, a small business subcontractor. Several manufacturers entered into negotiations with Phillips in !992 and began evaluating the technology. In 1993, two GAX absorption sealed systems and one complete GAX heat pump developed as part of Phillips's prototype work were delivered to Carrier for independent testing and evaluation. Carrier's testing confirmed that proof of principle had been demonstrated. Carrier also conducted independent cost and market studies to assess commercial feasibility and business opportunity; these studies concluded that the GAX technology could become a mainstream, high-volume product in both U.S. and global markets. Within ERRS, work continued on evaluation of ammonia/water/salt fluid mixtures for absorption heat pump cycles.3'4We identified a quaternary fluid mixture with the potential to increase cycle efficiency by 15-20% over present ammonia/water binary working fluids. Minisor- ber tests were completed to evaluate heat and mass transfer characteristics of the quaternary fluid. We also initiated a comparative analytical evaluation of known advanced cycles capable of improved cooling efficiency CHi-Cool" heat pump concepts). In the area of large commercial chiller technology, a patent was issued to ORNL in April 1993 for the double-condenser-coupled (DCC) advanced absorption chiller cycletl described in last year's annual report. At Battelle Columbus Division, research continued to characterize high-temperature operation of lithium bromide (LiBr)-water-based fluids for use in the DCC cycle. A subcontract was initiated with York International for hardware development and demonstration of an advanced, high-performance chiller prototype using conventional fluids (LiBr- water). This prototype chiller (400-ton cooling capacity) is targeted to achieve a cooling coefficient of performance (COP) of 1.6. Testing and emissions analysis for Stirling engine-driven heat pump (SEHP) systems was completed at Mechanical Technology, Inc., along with conceptual design of a new transmission/compressor subsystem. A technology transfer strategy was developed for recruiting commercialization partners for the SEHP technology, and plans were made for systematically concluding and documenting the DOE-supported SEHP program.

44 E_ici,ncyand RenewablesResearchSection

RelrilerstienSystems Significant progress was made on a major CRADAwith the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers on advanced refrigerator/freezer (RF) technology. Tests were completed with R-134a and high-efficiency components in a breadboard RF cabinet and the results used to validate a detailed RF system model. This model was then used to identify a technical path to reach the project goal of 1 kWh/d, a 50% reduction in energy use starting with a highly efficient 1993 RF unit as a base.8 As Fig. 5.1 shows, the savings result from a variety of changes to the refrigeration system and cabinet. Experimental verification of this technical path is under way. Work continued on a CRADA with DuPont to develop an enhanced version of the DOE/ORNL heat pump design model (HPDM) for use with zeotropic (or nonazeotropic) refrigerant blends. Analytical screening at ORNL of "near-drop-in" alternatives to R-22 was essentially completed. _ DuPont staff are incorporating property subroutines that can handle mixtures into the HPDM, An initial version of the new model is expected to be operational by the end of FY 1994. Research continued on developing heat exchanger (HX) technology for improved performance with zeotropes. A fundamental method for analysis of heat and mass transfer performance of air-refrigerant HXs using zeotropes was developed this year.8 Overall heat pump system analyses indicated that proper HX configuration is key to achieving system efficiency gains with zeotropes.9 A new air-refrigerant HX test facility, shown in Fig. 5.2, will support analysis methodology and HX technology development. The overall goal for the HX and system design optimization work is a 25% efficiency improvement over current air-to-air heat pumps with ozone-safe blends.

A CRADA with the Alternative Fluorocarbons Environmental Acceptability Study (a con- sortium of chemical manufacturers) was extended in FY 1993 to focus on the global warming impact of nonfluorocarbon technologies and next-generation CFC and HCFC replacements. Two workshops were held with international participation to develop background information "Ior "ims elI_ffor'1.10 ' 11

Energy use of 20 It s RF with design changes (60.9%; 1.00 kWh/d)

45 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Fig. 5.2. ERRS staff members Hr..4. Miller (left) and Max Poz adjust the airflow rate of the Cross Flow Heat Exchanger Test Loop, a new test facility to support analysis methodology and HX technology development. f

THERMALANDENVIRONMENTALCONTROLSYSTEMS Current project activities for the Thermal and Environmental Controls Group include regenerative magnetic heat pumping and refrigeration, working-fluid HX technology, non-CFC leak-detector development, hydrogen storage, and mobile air-conditioning experiments. The periodic flow heat transfer in a regenerator tube of a reciprocating magnetic heat pump test apparatus has been analyzed both numerically and experimentally, t2 In the numerical study, two approaches were taken: (1) solving the energy conservation equation for the fluid through a porous regenerator directly, and (2) solving the Navier-Stokes equations with a buoy- ancy force term in the momentum equation. The numerical study results show that a 45-K temperature span can be reached in 10 min of charge time through the use of a 7-T magnetic field. The experimental data are in good agreement with the numerical calculations for the cases where the measured adiabatic temperature changes of gadolinium are used. The temperature lift in a reciprocating magnetic heat pump seems to be highly dependent upon the thermophysical woperties of the working medium. Hardware fabrication and assembly of a magnetic refrigerator have been proceeding as part of a CRADA with Astronautics Corporation of America, Inc. The unit will be ready for testing next year. The working-fluid technology activities include zeotropic HX tests and non-CFC working fluid leak-detector development. A new HX test apparatus was assembled to investigate two- phase heat transfer of pure and zeotropic working fluids. During the year, a patent was granted on an instrument to measure the composition of refrigerant mixtures, iS and a working fluid leak-detection test loop was assembled to test minute leakage of non-CFG refrigerants. Test sensitivity of 0.01 oz/year of R-134a leakage in dry air has been achieved using the atmospheric proportional counter principle. 14 Transportation thermal management activities this year include hydrogen storage and mobile air-conditioning tests. Our initial effort in hydrogen storage concentrated on cryogenic adsorption and hydrogen slush. The concept of hydrogen storage in structured carbon is deemed to be most promising, and its thermal design analysis is being explored. A liquid overfeeding (LOF) HX was patented and tested for advanced mobile air conditioning during the year. 15Laboratory steady-state test results have shown that a 20% improvement in cooling

46 Efficiency and Renewables Research Section

performance can be achieved by incorporating the LOF concept in a mobile air conditioner (see Fig. 5.3). 16The application of this technology to other end-use sectors is being pursued. 17 BUILDINGENVELOPERESEARCHCENTER Mission The mission of the Building Envelope Research Center (BERC), which houses DOE's Roof, Wall, and Foundation Program, is to accelerate the U.S. building industry's adoption of energy-efficient and environmentally sustainable envelope systems by well-characterized laboratory and field performance demonstrations and technology development. The responsibility of this joint DOFJindustry user center is to ensure that advanced technologies for constructing energy-efficient building envelopes are available to U.S. manufacturers, and to encourage industry to adopt those technologies, so that U.S. industry will be competitive in global markets. The DOE Office of Building Technology (OBT) encourages cooperative research with private I industry.

R-30/30 Roofs The major objective of research on low-slope roofs is to develop by the year 2000 a marketable industry standard that will have an average service life of 30 years and energy efficiency greater than an R-30 roof in a northern climate. (Today's average roof has a life of 15 years and an installed R-value of 10.) Private-industry research contribution toward this objective exceeded $1.0M over the last several years in the form of CRADAs with the BERC. One significant BERC accomplishment this year is development of a method to measure the drying rate of dynamic roof systems using the large-scale climate simulator (LSCS). The information from these laboratory experiments fed into the development of a novel roof drying/recover procedure now being demonstrated on the roof of a 9000-ft 20RNL office building. Provided by Dow Corning as part of a CRADA, the new roof saved DOE more than $250,000 as a result of not having to remove and replace the old roof. David Kyle and Andr_ Desjarlais created a self-drying roof design that should extend service life. Their report, Assessment of Technologiesfor Constructing Self-Drying Low-Slope Roofs,IS was made available at a Low-Slope

3.4 0x .41-Sedes 1:LOF Fig. 5.3. A mobile air 3.2...... -4- Series 2:TXV conditioner can achieve a 20% improvement in cooling COP by 3- incorporating the LOF concept, as seen in this comparison of a. 2.8-- COP with both LOF and 0 standard thermal expansion 0 2.6-- valve (TXV) techniques.

2.2-- 2.4- [ 2- I I I I I I I 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 Compressor RPM

47 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Reroofing Workshop held at ORNL on May 24-25, 1994. Coordinated by Andr6 Desjarlais, this workshop attracted a stellar group of 150 roofing experts from around the country rep- resenting all the major roofing technologies applicable for recover.

Attic Research and Design Handbook The major objective of BERC attic research is to develop a fundamental understanding of the thermal performance of attics and cathedral ceilings as complete systems and then to develop an attic handbook for energy-efficient buildings. Based on the enhanced technical database in this handbook, more cost-effective attics and cathedral ceilings are being developed and demonstrated.

One of the most significant accomplishments this last year was development of an attic insulation air-flow permeability measurement device that provides a key material property needed to accurately predict the degree of natural convection occurring in attic systems as measured in the LSCS. A computational fluid dynamics model, "Darcy," was validated using results from the LSCS and the ORNL permeability measurements of several attic insulation configurations. The ORNL attic model was successfully modified to incorporate HVAC ducts. The model can now account for the radiative interchanges between attic surfaces and ducts, convective heat transfer between attic air and ducts, and effects of air leakage. This model is now ready for developing the economical levels of attic and duct insulation for the attic handbook. An extended outline for the handbook was written, and the first draft should be available in the fall of 1994. A new American Society of Testing and Materials insulation testing standard originated by the BERC staff is now ready for society balloting. This builds upon the LSCS attic tests that quantified the natural convection effect at very cold outside conditions.

AdvancedWall Research and Thermal PerformanceLabel The long-range objective for the BERC wall program is to establish a consumer label detailing the thermal performance of whole-wall systems. This is being accomplished by developing the technology base needed to accelerate the use of higher thermal performance wall systems and by working with the building industry, building product manufacturers, and national and state code groups in getting advanced wall systems and procedures into the mainstream of conventional practice. A simple but elegant method of defining "insulation efficiency"--the effectiveness of insulation when used in any manner other than a uniform thickness/homogenous/thermal-short- free mannermwas published this year. For instance, the "insulation efficiency" of the insulation inserts in standard two-core concrete and masonry blocks is about 20%. In other words, the same insulating benefit could be attained by using 20% of the total volume used as concrete and masonry unit inserts. A protocol has been developed that could be used to provide a consumer label on the opaque wall area steady-state thermal performance of a building. This label could be affixed to the building blueprints, the front door of a modular building "kit," or the bill of sale for the house. Over 30 different wall systems have been evaluated using the protocol and a finite-difference computer program (Heating 7). The marketplace must have an objective metric from which to shop for energy-efficient walls. Ignoring the extensive number of thermal shorts in today's typical house can result in an overprediction of the whole-wall system's thermal resistance by more than 25%.

Energy-Efficient, Durable Foundations The major objective of BERC foundation research is to help builders construct by the year 2000 at least 85% of new housing with foundations that meet or exceed American Society

48 Efficiency and Renewables Research Section

of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers prescriptive standards (ASHRAE 90) and that are acceptable to local pest control industries. This year, four patentable energy-efficient wall systems were developed that have integral insulating capabilities. Many of these novel ideas grew from a recently completed assessment of more than two dozen energy-efficient, low-cost foundation wall systems. No insulation is required on either the interior or exterior surface in contact with the earth. A smwey was distributed to 4000 pest control operators to determine the extent of termite infestation problems resulting from foundation insulation in contact with the earth. There were 150 responders, 34 of whom indicated they had retreated a building with foundation insulation. Thesc 150 are now being selectively contacted to gain additional insight into this problem. EXISTINGBUILDINGSRESEARCH The Existing Buildings Research Program operates nationally to help public and private organizations improve the energy efficiency of existing residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. The program focuses on (1) R&D in collaboration with key stakeholders responsible for efficiency delivery programs to demonstrate and deploy technologies that achieve the highest level of savings practical, (2) development and testing of delivery procedures to increase the effectiveness and penetration of energy-efficiency measures in buildings, and (3) development of methods to achieve wide-scale deployment of measures through major initiatives with key collaborators. Two DOE programsmthe Existing Buildings Efficiency Research (EBR) Program for the Office of Building Energy Research, and the Weatherization Assistance Program for the Office of Financial and Technical Assistance--provide primary support, and the military and other organizations sponsor related research. The program has a target goal of achieving a 4 quadrillion Btu/year (quads/year) savings by the year 2030, with an intermediate goal of saving 0.6 quads/year by the year 2000. A major new initiative, Rebuild America, was proposed by the EBR Program and has been included in President Clinton's Climate ChangeAction Plan. 19 Achieving the goal for the year 2000 will require a major deployment effort that achieves significant increased efficiency in about 300,000 commercial buildings and ten million residences. Achieving increased energy efficiency in buildings, and resultant reductions in air emissions, is a major national undertaking for which the EBR Program is ready to manage implementation.

ResidentialBuildings The focus in residential buildings continued to shift this year from the low-income market to military and mid-income target markets. A project sponsored by DOE and the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Army Engineering and Housing Support Center addresses broad goals to measure the savings potential from the application of 1995 technology in these markets and to determine the technology and cost barriers to achieving 50% savings. Diagnostic inspections of family housing at two Air Force bases confirmed that design and construction flaws that adversely affect energy performance are prevalent in military family housing and must be addressed during revitalization and retrofit. 2° Poorly defined thermal envelopes and deterio- rated or poorly designed air-distribution systems are two major inspection findings. A progress draft of a revitalization design guidebook was also prepared. -21This guidebook is being written for the architectural and engineering firms developing detailed revitalization designs to provide (1) information on the most current efficiency technologies and (2) detailed procedures for determining the most cost-effective measures to bring the houses into compliance with military guidelines. Two other guidebooks are planned as well, one to ensure that measures are properly

49 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

installed and operated, and another to outline an energy retrofit program for housing not scheduled for major revitalization. Another goal--to develop and test advanced diagnostic techniques, audits, and efficiency measures--was addressed through a cooperative field test performed in Arizona and through completion of the National Energy Audit (NEAT). Diagnosis of duct leakage problems and resulting repairs were performed in 45 test houses in Arizona using retrofit protocols developed for the project. The extensive variability of duct leakage problems and the success of repairs among houses suggest that utilities and others may need to target duct leakage programs at designated types of houses in order to deal with this problem cost-effectively. NEAT will also provide an advanced, interactive single-family energy audit for use in all regions of the United States. A user's manual was developed and training completed in 43 states for use in weatherization assistance programs. 22Planned enhancements to NEAT will add measures to facilitate user interface.

DOE-HUDInitiative A major partnership between DOE, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Devel- opment (HUD), the Chelsea Housing Authority in Massachusetts, Boston Edison, ORNL, and the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory was formed to study technical and financial linkages that can increase energy efficiency in large Public Housing Authority buildings. Major retrofits to the Margolis Apartments, an 11-story building in Chelsea, were completed under the partnership, and a technical evaluation is in progress to confirm energy use, electric demand, and energy cost savings. This partnership is a valuable model for similar efforts by other public housing agencies. A guidebook on energy performance contracting for public housing agencies and Indian housing authorities was also developed. 2_Two pilot training workshops on energy performance contracting during rehabilitation were conducted with DOE funding for the larger public housing agencies in HUD Region I (Boston) and Regions IX and X (San Francisco). Future workshops may also be held with HUD funding. CommercialBuildings The Commercial Buildings Program provides major support to states, cities, and utilities around the country to transfer and adopt demonstrated methods of achieving large savings in commercial buildings and to better understand performance of efficiency measures in small and large commercial buildings. Research studies have been conducted on (1) verification of savings from major retrofits in a large building in Washington, D.C.; 24 (2) use of high-speed collection of electrical power data for diagnosing building performance; (3) methods for statistically analyzing huge samples of buildings for program evaluation; 25 and (4) use of short- term field energy and power data collection supplemented with analytical models to reduce energy monitoring costs to verify savings in buildings. 24 Ajoint project was negotiated with Duke Power in North Carolina to examine the potential for efficiency measures in small commercial buildings. Research for this study will begin in 1994. Negotiations have been conducted with several states and cities to set up demonstrations of larger-scale implementation of measures in building clusters. At this time, no states or cities have committed a reasonable level of resources to begin a demonstration, but recent indications of potential demonstration partners have been good, and we hope to have a demonstration started this year. The demonstrations will be used to develop improved methods for wide-scale implementation under the Rebuild America initiative and other major initiatives.

5O Efficiency and Renewables Research Section

TECHNOLOGYTRANSFERFORBUILDINGS The Building Technology Transfer Program works to ensure that research results are transferred to the public quickly, efficiently, and effectively. The program seeks to identify and share technology and information that will have a long-term positive impact on the design, construction, and maintenance of energy-efficient buildings and equipment (Fig. 5.4). In FY 1993, ORNL hosted the semiannual OBT Technology Transfer Meeting. Highlights included a house audit by the Existing Buildings Research Program, in cooperation with the city of Knoxville, Knoxville Utility Board, State Energy Office officials, HUD, and the Habitat for Humanities organization. A blower door demonstration, shown in Fig. 5.5, familiarized participants with an air-leakage diagnostic tool used in retrofit analysis. The Building Envelope Research Center and the Building Equipment Technology Program provided tours and highlights of their user facilities. In December 1993, ORNL and the Task Force on Buildings Energy Efficiency in the Southeast (DOE Region IV) sponsored a "Utility Partnerships" workshop hosted by TVA in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The purpose of the workshop was to exchange information and experiences, increase regional networking among utilities, review current experience on efficiency programs, and explore the potential for regional partnerships. The published proceedings will be available in summer 1994. Other activities include lead laboratory designation for OBT technology transfer activities, poster and model exhibits at workshops and major conferences, and coordination of educational activities and publications promoting energy efficiency. POWERSYSTEMSTECHNOLOGY The Power Systems Technology Program conducts research on a wide range of topics important to the nation's ability to deliver electric power. The program's missioll is to develop technologies that increase the capacity and flexibility of our nation's T&D system.

EMFResearchProgram In FY 1993, ORNL continued to work closely with DOE to accelerate and expand EMF research in accordance with the requirements of the Energy Policy Act of 1992, Section 2118. The new National EMF Program closely coordinates EMF research and communication activities among government and industry research organizations. ORNL played a major role in orga- nizing the National EMF Advisory Committee and developing pro- Fig. 5.4. This logo, gram plans for science and engi- designed by LeRoy Gilliam, neering research under the new an illustrator in the Energy program. Our quality assurance Division Information function for all DOE EMF re- Management Services search was expanded with topical office, was selected from workshops in critical research submissions by all the areas and interlaboratory coordi- national laboratories for nation activities. Within the labo- use nationwide on ratory, two projects developing materials f or DOE's cell-level measurement techniques Building Technology were completed. 26'27A multidisci- Transfer Program. plinary, multidivisional EMF re- Ofll_ of Bulldin 0 T_chlloltl_iu search team obtained internal

51 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Fig. 5.5. Part of the 1993 OBT Technology Transfer Meeting !i hosted by ORNL, this blower ij door demonstration familiarized _ _ _ local rehabilitation specialists with a diagnostic tool for retrofit analysis.

funding under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program to investigate the theoretical basis for cancer promotion by EMFs.

Real-Time Power Systems Control Research Program The Real-Time Power Systems Control Research Program began as a research priority at a 1990 industry/government workshop and then became an initiative following a 1991 workshop. The program has been structured into three major areas whose collective objectives are to reduce the capacity reserve requirements for T&D systems and to automate complex T&D operation and interutility energy exchanges. An industry/government technical committee was formed in FY 1993 to coordinate DOE-sponsored research activities in this program with industry. Two studies completed in 1993 address dynamic control using phasor measurements and the impact of protective relay operations on power system outages and blackouts. 26'27The first study indicates that it may be possible to develop control strategies to avoid cascading normal operations into severe outages by extending the present criteria using steady-state stability and load-flow studies into the area of transient stability. In the second project, the concept of a generator axis load flow--a load flow that views the entire network from a few retained buses (the internal nodes of the generators)--was developed and tested through simulations on several power system models. 2s The study indicates that it may be possible to track and predict the behavior of the entire power system network in real time from phasor measurements of generator terminal quantities (real-time measurements of bus voltage and line current phasors) collected at these internal nodes. 20

High-Capacity Transmission ORNL's High-Capacity Transmission Program has two thrusts: demonstrating high-phase- order alternating current transmission lines and improving the feasibility of high-voltage dc (HVDC) transmission by reducing the cost of the converter terminals. The High-Phase-Order Demonstration Project, initiated in 1992, continued its test phase in 1993, focusing on audible noise measurements and the effect of unbalanced phase current on line operation. The HVDC program began during 1993 to develop advanced converter configurations, investigate alter-

52 Efficiency and Renewables Research Section

natives to semiconductors as switching devices, and assess silicon carbide as a basis for a new generation of high-voltage, high-current solid-state switches.

Dielectric Materials During FY 1993, ORNL and its CRADA partners completed development testing of a technique capable of detecting S2FI0 at its toxic ceiling limit value of 10 parts per billion,s°'-s_ (S2FI0 is a by-product of electric discharge inside SF6-insulated equipment.) Utility and manufacturer interest in this program is strong, and an additional partner was added to the CRADA as Hydro-Quebec joined eight other utility partners. Work will continue in 1994 to develop sampling equipment, culminating in a field sampling program of in-service equipment.

Geomagnetic Storm Research The earth is continuously immersed in solar wind, a rarified plasma of protons and elec- trons emitted from the sun. Diurnal variations and small fluctuations in the solar wind cause small variations in the earth's ambient magnetic field. These ambient field variations are important in the analysis of magnetic depth soundings and aerial surveys. Larger geomagnetic field fluctuations occur during solar storms. A severe solar storm on March 13, 1989, blacked out the entire Hydro-Quebec power system, leaving 6 million people without electricity. 3s The ORNL geomagnetic field monitor observes both magnetic and electric fields at a relatively high sample rate (up to 1 sample per second). Data from this monitor, along with data from the U.S. Geological Survey and EPRI, will be used to characterize solar storms. These data will play an important role in reducing the vulnerability of electric power systems to solar storms. The Oak Ridge geomagnetic field monitor could also play an important role in the nation's effort to locate and properly dispose of radioactive waste by aiding in the detection of buried waste sites.

Electric Motor Systems Research Electric motors efficiendy convert 65-70% of all U.S. electric energy into mechanical energy. The integration of electric motors with various forms of drives and driven equipment often presents opportunities for significant improvements in overall system efficiency. ORNL has worked during FY 1993 to develop, with DOE's Electric Motor Systems Program, a plan to promote consideration of overall systems issues in motor applications. 34 The resulting program involves a series of voluntary user-led, industry-funded showcase demonstrations called the Motor Challenge Program. ORNL will support the program through instrumentation R&D and technical expertise in measurements and databases.

Renewable integration A major study of the feasibility of interconnecting renewable energy sources at the distribution level was completed in FY 1993.sS's6 This analysis used case studies of a national sample of actual utility feeders to develop an assessment of the benefits of distributed renewable resources. A second study assessing the ability of the existing transmission network to inter- connect large blocks of renewable resources was under way at year's end. This study will use nationwide case studies developed by utility partners to ensure local as well as national validity.

SuperconductingMagnetic EnergyStorage The Power Systems Technology Program is conducting an assessment of the benefits of energy storage for electric utility applications. The specific technology being investigated is superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES). SMES systems store energy in the magnetic

53 Energy Division Annual. Progress Report

SharingORNLExpertiseThroughtheBuildingsTechnologyCenter

The BTC provides the Cooperative research and also works with Tennessee State U.S. buildings industry with development agreements at the University through the Histori- broad access to a unique collec- BTC have included as partici- cally Black Colleges and Uni- tion of testing and analysis ca- pants such organizations as Dow versities Program. pabilities at ORNL. The special Chemical, DuPont, Allied Sig- The BTC is housed in a focus of these facilities is im- nal, the Association of Home cluster of six buildings with proving the energy efficiency of Appliance Manufacturers, EPA, more than 20,000 ft" of space buildings. The BTC pursues Clayton Homes, Dow Coming, and has a permanent staff of solutions that are energy effi- and the National Roofing Con- about 50, continuously supple- cient, environmentally sound, tractors Association. Universi- mented by up to 20 guest and cost-effective, ties and research institutes workers. Annual program ex- Established by DOE, the include the University of Min- pendimres are about $13 mil- BTG makes available ORNL nesota; the Royal Institute of lion. The BTC consists of the expertise on building enve- Technology, Stockholm; the Building Envelope Research lopes; heating, cooling, and re- University of Auckland, New Center, the Heating and Cool- frigeration equipment; and Zealand; the Moscow Scientific, ing Technology Center, and the performance monitoring and Research and Experimental In- Existing Buildings Research analysis of existing buildings, stitute; and the Technical Uni- Center. versity of Denmark. The BTG

! •

Andrd Desjarlais installs thermocouples on a new BTC rotatable hot box.

54 Efficiency and Renewables Research Section

field surrounding current-carrying electrical conductors. The magnetic field is produced by circulating a dc current in the conductor. To make the SMES system practical, superconducting wire is used to virtually eliminate electrical losses. During FY 1993, ORNL completed studies that focused the attention of the industry on smaller-sized SMES units to be used to enhance the dynamic performance of transmission systems, s7 Studies are currently under way with six utility partners nationwide to further define and evaluate SMES applications. INTERNATIONALTECHNOLOGYCOOPERATION ORNL is playing an increasingly important role in international energy technology cooperation programs. These programs facilitate the exchange of energy technology information among North American, European, and industrialized Asian nations, as well as developing Asian Pacific nations.

Four DOE programs with ORNL participation involve the exchange of energy- technology-related information among International Energy Agency (IEA) member nations. The IEA Heat Pump Centre exchanges information on heat pumps; the IEA Centre for the Analysis and Dissemination of Demonstrated Energy Technologies (CADDET) has a broader focus, sharing information about demonstration projects that led to significant energy and cost savings. Further, Annex 19 of the Building and Community Systems Working Group of IF_A, developed a guidebook of good practices for insulated low-slope roof systems,s8 Finally, ORNL became involved in a new IEA initiative during 1993, the Greenhouse Gas Technology Infor- mation Exchange (GREENTIE). GREENTIE's overall mission is to facilitate the diffusion and exchange of information on technologies that mitigate the production of greenhouse gases. ORNL also became increasingly involved in the Asia Pacific Energy Commission's energy efficiency and conservation theme program of activities designed to advance the economic and social well-being of the Asia Pacific region through energy conservation and the application of energy-efficient technologies. Activities this year include facilitation of a DSM workshop held in Seoul, Korea, and l,ublication of the compendium Energy Efficiencyand ConservationMeasures and PracticesApplied to _heFood and Beverage lndttstry in the Asia Pacific Region.39 ORNL received funding from the Regional Energy Office of USAID/Guatemala for the final evaluation of the Central American Rural Electrification Project. Under a separate subcontract with USAID, ORNL has provided on-call assistance to Guatemala's environmental protection organization CONAMA, advising them on U.S. regulations for air quality and electromagnetic radiation from electrical T&D equipment. This assistance included a study for CONAMA measuring magnetic field strength in areas surrounding transformer substations and power lines in Guatemala City. The study showed that the equipment is well within the most restrictive standards proposed in the United States. ORNL has also initiated projects with technical counterparts in Russia and in the Ukraine, though these are currently limited to information and staff exchange. Joint research projects are under discussion. REFERENCES 1. R.C. DeVault and G. Grossman, "Triple-Effect Absorption Chiller Cycles," Proceedingsof 1992 International Gas Research Conference, Orlando, Fla., November 1992.

55 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

2. R.C. DeVault and G. ";rossman, "Facts About Triple-Effect Absorption Chiller Cycles," pp. 26-28 in Gas Induatries, September 1993. 3. A. Zaltash and M. R. Ally, "Predicting Viscosities of Aqueous Salt Mixtures," pp. 49-52 in Proceedings of the 1992 ASME Winter Annual Meeting, AES-Vol. 28, Anaheim, Calif., November 7-13, 1992. 4. R.H. Reiner and A. Zaltash, "Densities and Viscosities of Ternary Ammonia/Water Fluids," pp. 49-56 in Proceedingsofthe 1993 ASME Winter Annual Meeting, AES-Vol. 29, New Orleans, November 28-December 3, 1993.

5. R.C. DeVault and W. J. Biermann, "Triple-Effect Absorption Refrigeration System with Double-Condenser Coupling," U.S. Patent 5,205,136, April 27, 1993. 6. J.R. Sand, E. A. Vineyard, and R. H. Bohman, "Investigation of Design Options for Improving the Energy Efficiency of Conventionally Designed Refrigerator-Freezers," ASHRAE Transactions 100(1), January 1994 (accepted for publication). 7. S.K. Fischer andJ. R. Sand, "Screening Analysis for Chlorine-Free Alternative Refrigerants to Replace R-22 in Air-Conditioning Applications," ASHRAE Transactions99(2), June 1993. 8. M.Y. Poz and J. C. Conklin, "Heat Exchanger Analysis for Nonazeotropic Refrigerant Mixtures," ASHRAE Transactions 100(1), January 1994 (accepted for publication). 9. C.K. Rice, "Influence of HX Size and Augmentation on Performance Potential of Mixtures in Air-to-Air Heat Pumps," ASHRAE Transactions 99(2), June 1993. 10. S. K. Fischer and P. J. Lewis (eds.), Proceedingsof the 1993 Non-FluorocarbonRefrigeration and Air-Conditioning Technology Workshop, Breckenridge, Colo., June 23-25, 1993. 11. s.K. Fischer and P.J. Lewis (eds.), ProceedingsoftheNon-FluorocarbonInsulation, Refrigeration and _4ir-ConditioningTechnologyWorkshop,Wiesbaden, Germany, September 27-29, 1993. 12. D.T. Chen, et al., PerformanceAnalysis of Reciprocating RegenerativeMagnetic Heat Pumping, O_NI_/TM-12630, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., April 1994. 13. S. L. Allman, C. H. Chen, and F. C. Chen, "Charged Particle Mobility Refrigerant Ana- lyzer," U.S. Patent No. 5,184,015, February 2, 1993. 14. F.C. Chen, S. L. Allman, and C. H. Chen, "New Concepts for Refrigerant Leak Detection and Mixture Measurement," Proceedingsof the 1993 International CFC and Halon Alternatives Conference,Washington, D.C., October 20-22, 1993. 15. V.C. Mei and F. C. Chen, "Liquid Over-Feeding Air Conditioning System and Method," U.S. Patent No. 5,245,833, September 21, 1993. 16. V.C. Mei, D. Kyle, and F. C. Chen, "R-134a Liquid Overfeeding Mobile Air Conditioning Systems," pp. 467-70 in Proceedingsofthe SAE VehicleThermalManagement SystemsConference, Columbus, Ohio, March 29-April 1, 1993. 17. V. C. Mei, et al., "A Recuperative Air Conditioning Cycle," Heat Pump and Refrigeration Systems,AES-Vol. 29, American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1993. 18. D. M. Kyle and A. O. Desjarlais, Assessmentof Technologiesfor Constructing Self-Drying Low- Slope Roofs, ORNL/CON-380, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., May 1994.

19. W.J. Clinton and A. Gore, Jr., The Climate Change Action Plan, October 1993.

56 Efficiency and Renewables Research Section

20. W. P. Levins and M. P. Ternes, Energy Efficiency in Military Family Housing: Inspection Results, ORNI2TM-12692, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., February 1994.

21. R. L. Wendt, et al., Design Guide for Energy-Efficient Revitalization of Military Family Housing, Draft, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., January 1994.

22. J. Krigger, N. Adams, and M. Gettings, National Energy Audit (NEAT) User's Manual, ORNL/Sub/91-SK078/1, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., July 1993.

23. J. Kolb, et al., Energy Performance Contracting for Public and Indian Housing: A Guide for Participants, prepared for the DOE-HUD Initiative, U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., February 1992.

24. M. MacDonald, H. McLain, and S. B. Leigh, "Analysis of Savings Due to Multiple Efficiency Improvements in an Office Building," CADDET Newsletter, No. 2, June 1993.

25. M. MacDonald, D. Trumble, and J. Farley, "Evaluation of a Lighting Program for Small Commercial and Industrial Buildings in the Northeast," pp. 146-54 in Proceedings of the 1993 International Energy Program Evaluation C",_ference, Chicago, August 25-27, 1993.

26. P. C. Gailey, "Current Distribution Tomography for Determination of Internal Current Density Distributions," pp. 923-31 in Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Applied Com- putational Electromagnetics Society, Monterey, Calif., March 1993.

27. P. C. Gailey and C. E. Easterly, "Cell Membrane Potentials Induced During Exposure to EMP Fields," Proceedings of the EMP Human Health Effects Review Panel, Williamsburg, Va., March 1993.

28. A. G. Phadke, S. H. Horowitz, and J. S. Thorp, Anatomy of Power System Blackouts and Preventive Strategies by Rational Supervision and Control of Protection Systems, ORNL/Sub/89- SD630C/1, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn. (to be published).

29. A. G. Phadke and J. s. Thorp, Monitoring and Simulating Real-Time Electric Power System Operation with Phasor Measurements, ORNL/Sub/88-SC203/I, Oak Ridge National Labora- tory, Oak Ridge, Tenn. (to be published).

30. I. Sauers, et al., "Investigation of S2FI0 Production and Mitigation in Compressed SF6- Insulated Power Systems," IEEE Electrical Insulation Magazine 9(3), 29-40 and 51, D. R. James (ed.), May/June 1993.

31. R.J. Van Brunt, et al., "Detection of S2FI0 Produced by Electrical Discharge in SF6," pp. 418-21 in Proceedings of the l Oth International Conference on Gas Discharges and Their Applications, September 13-18, 1992, Swansea, U.K. 32. I. Sauers and S. M. Mahajan, "Detection of S2FI0 Produced by a Single Spark Discharge in SF6," pp. 2103-5 inJ. Appl. Phys. 74(3), August 1, 1993. 33. P.R. Barnes and F. M. Tesche, "Geomagnetic Storm Environments and Effects on Electrical Systems," pp. 105-10 in Proceedings for the l Oth International Zurich Symposium and Technical Exhibition on Electromagnetic Compatibility, Zurich, Switzerland, March 9-11, 1993, ETH Zen- trum, March 1993.

34. Efficient Electric Motor Systems for Industry, DOE/PO-0008, November 1993.

57 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

35. P. R. Barnes, et al., "The Integration of Renewable Energy Sources into Electric Power Distribution Systems," Vol. I, National Assessment, ORNL-6775NI, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn. (to be published). 36. H.W. Zaininger, P. R. Ellis, and J. c. Schaefer, "The Integration of Renewable Energy Sources into Electric Power Distribution Systems," Vol. II, Utility Case Studies, ORNL- 6775/V2, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn. (to be published). 37. R.J. Ferraro and B. W. McConnell (eds.), Understanding Superconducting Magnetic Energy StorageTechnology,Applications,and Economicsfor End Use Workshop,ORNLISub/88-SM362/1, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., November 1993. 38. G. E. Courville, et al., A Guidebookfor Insulated Low-Slope Roof Systems, IEA Annex 19, International Energy Agency, February 1994. 39. M. A. Broders, J. Shauer, and M. Voss, Energy Efficiency and Conservation Measures and PracticesApplied to the Foodand BeverageIndustry in the Asia PacificRegion, ORNIfI'M- 12709, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., February 1994.

58 Appendix:Publications, Awards, and SummaryData I IIIIIIIIIIIIII1[IIIIIIIIII _ I II1'1111 i

ENERGYDIVISIONADVISORYCOMMITTEEFY1993

Dr. Douglas R. Bohi Director, Energy and Natural Resources Division Resources for the Future 1616 P Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20036 Phone: 202-328-5072

Dr. Thomas E. Drabek Professor, Department of Sociology University of Denver Denver, CO 80208-0209 Phone: 303-871-2050

Mr. Calvin D. MacCracken President, Calmac Manufacturing Corporation 101 West Sheffield Avenue P.O. Box 710 Englewood, NJ 07631 Phone: 201-569-0420

Ms. Jacqueline B. Shrago Director, Office of Technology Transfer (Chairperson) 405 Kirkland Hall Vanderbilt University Nashville, TN 37240 Phone: 615-322-7056

Mr. George F. Sowers, P.E. Senior Vice President Law Companies Group, Inc. 114 Townpark Drive, Suite 250 Kennesaw, GA 30144-5599 Phone: 404-421-3460

Dr. C. Michael Walton Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering and Chairman Department of Civil Engineering University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX 78712-1076 Phone: 512-471-1414

59 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

ENERGYDIVISIONPROFESSIONALHONORSANDAWARDSFY1993

Allman, S. L., C. H. Chen, and F. C. Chen received U.S. Patent 5,184,015 for the Charged Particle Mobility Refrigerant Analyzer. Barnes, P. R., has been selected to the grade of Electromagnetic Pulse Fellow in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc, Brown, M. A., was honored in the Science and Technology Category at the Knoxville YWCA's Tribute to Women Awards Banquet. Chen, F. C. (together with S. L. Allman and C. H. Chen of the Health and Safety Research Division), received an R&D 100 Award for the development of the chlorofluorocarbon/hydrofluorocarbon (CFC/HFC) Ratiometer. Christian, J. E., P. W. Childs, and K. Wilkes (former researcher in the Energy Division) had their research work on Thermal Performance of Attic Insulations selected as one of the top 100 for a "Best of What's New in Science and Technology" award by Popular Science magazine. Copenhaver, E. D., was chosen 1993 Woman of the Year by the Oak Ridge Chapter of the American Business Women's Association (ABWA). DeVault, R. C., and W. J. Biermann received U.S. Patent 5,205,136 for the Absorption Chiller Cycle with Double-Condenser Coupling (DCC). Greene, D. L., received a Testimonial of Appreciation from the Transportation Research Board for his distinguished service as Chairman of the Section on Environmental Concerns and as a Member of the Transportation Systems Planning and Administration Group Council. Hillsman, E. L. (together with D. P. Stevens of the Information Management Services Division), were recently given an Award of Excellence by the East Tennessee Chapter of the Society for Technical Communication for the publication Technology Cooperation Related to Global Climate Change. This publication was chosen from among 134 entries. Jones, D. W., was awarded a plaque by the Thioneine Society-North American Division for distinguished scholarly contributions. Mei, V. C., and F. C. Chen received U.S. Patent No. 5,245,833 for the Liquid Over-Feeding Air-Conditioning System and Method. Wilbanks, T. J., received the Distinguished Geography Educator Award for 1993 from the National Geo- graphic Society.

6O Appendix: Publications, Awards, and Summary Data

ENERGYDIVISIONPUBLICATIONSFY1993

Adler, M. V., K. S. Gant, and R. A. Rowland, "Multi-Purpose Exercises: Making DOE Exercises Meet State and Local Exercise Requirements," pp. 3-10 in Proceedings of the 15th Annual Trade Conference, St. Petersburg, Fla., November 18-20, 1991, published November 1992. Anderson, T. D., Setting the Context for the Workshop on Nuclear as a Large-Scale Global Energy Option, August 1993. Anderson, T. D., and M. W. Marsh, Nuclear as a Large-Scale Global Energy Option: The Technical and Institutional Requirements (workshop brochure), August 1993. Barnes, P. R., HEMP and Commercial Electric Power, ORNL/S/Int-92/12, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., October 1992. Barnes, P. R., et al., Electromagnetic Pulse Research on Electric Power Systems: Program Summary and Recommendations, ORNL-6708, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., January 1993. Baxter, V. D., F. A. Creswick, and W. K. Snelson, "Heat Pump Technology: Responding to New Opportunities," pp. 563-72 in Proceedings of the 4th International Energy Agency Heat Pump Conference: Heat Pumps for Energy Efficiency and Environmental Progress, J. Bosma (ed.), April 1993. Berry, L., "A Review of the Market Penetration of U.S. Residential and Commercial Demand-Side Man- agement Programs," Energy Policy 21(1):53-67, January 1993. Bradford, P., R. Cavanagh, and E. Hirst, "The Next Frontier for Integrated Resource Planning and Demand-Side Management," pp. 44-50 in Electricity Journal 6(1), January/February 1993. Broders, M. A., F. R. Ruppel, and M. A. Brown, Evaluation of the Utility and Energy Monitoring and Control System Installed at the U.S. Army, Europe, 409th Base Support Battalion, Military Community at Grafenwohr, Germany, ORNL/CON-353, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., May 1993. Bronzini, M. S., et al., "Enhancing the Future Pool of Civil Engineers," pp. 191-99 in Transportation Research Record 1395, 1993. Brown, M. A., "The Effectiveness of Codes and Marketing in Promoting Energy-Efficient Home Con- struction," Energy Policy 21(2): 391-402, April 1993. Brown, M. A., et al., "Demonstrations: The Missing Link in Government-Sponsored Energy Technology Deployment," Technology in Society 15(2): 185-205, 1993. Brown, M. A., and L. G. Berry, "Taking Stock of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The Single Family Study," pp. 11-15 in Home Energy 19(5), September/October 1993. Brown, M. A., L. G. Berry, and R. A. Balzer, National Impacts of the Weatherization Assistance Program in Single-Family and Small Multifamily Dwellings, ORNL/CON-326, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., May 1993. Brown, M. A., L. G. Berry, and R. A. Balzer, "DOE's Weatherization Assistance Program: National Impacts and Regional Variations," in Proceedings of the Energy Program Evaluation Conference, Chicago, August 1993. Brown, M. A., et al., A Comparison Group Analysis of DOE's Energy-Related Inventions Program, ORNL/CON- 365, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., June 1993. Brown, M. A., and D. L. White, Evaluation of Bonneville's 1988 and 1989 Residential Weatherization Program: A Northwest Study of Program Dynamics, ORNL/CON-323, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., December 1992. Cantor, R. A., R. M. Lee, and A. Krupnick, U.S.-EC Fuel Cycle Study: Background Document to the Approach and Issues, ORNL/M-2500, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., November 1992. Carlsmith, R. S., and R. B. Shehon, Report Briefi--August 1992April 1993 (Energy Efficiency, Electric Energy Systems, Analysis and Assessment, Decision Support Systems).

61 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Carlson, J. D., J. E. Christian, and T. L. Smith, "In-Situ Thermal Performance of Applied Modified Bitumen Roof Membranes Coated with Reflective Coatings," Thermal Envelopes Conference V, Clearwater Beach, Fla., December 7-19, 1992, ASHRAE Transactions, December 1992. Catanese, A. V., and R. D. Perlack, "Reforestation in Haiti," pp. 59-72 in Canadian Journal of Development Studies 14(1), 1993. Christian, J. E., et al., Building Thermal Envelope Systems and Materials (BTESM) Update 2(9-11); $(1-7), October 1992-August 1993. Christian, J. E., G. E. Courville, and A. O. Dejarlais, The Technical Viability of Alternative Blowing Agents in Polyisocyanurate Roof Insulation: A Cooperative IndustryGovernment Project, ORNL/CON-367, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., June 1993. Christian, J. E., et al., "Roof System Effects on In-Situ Thermal Performance of HCFC Polyisocyanurate Insulation," Proceedings of the Polyurethanes '92 Conference, New Orleans, October 21-24, 1992. Christian, J. E., and M. K. Voss, A Study of Changes in Foundation Insulation Levels in the United States, ORNL/CON-351, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., October 1992. Conklin, J. c., and E. A. Vineyard, "Flow Boiling Enhancement of R-22 and a Nonazeotropic Mixture of R-143a and R-124 Using Perforated Foils," ASHRAE Transactions 98(2): 402-10, December 1992. Curlee, T. R., "Historical Responses to Environmental Externalities in Electric Power," pp. 926-36 in Energy Policy, September 1993. Curlee, T. R., Recycling of Plastics: Concise Encyclopedia of Materials Economics, Policy and Management, M. Bever (ed.), Pergamon Press, Oxford, United Kingdom, 1993. Dale, V. H., R. V. O'Neill, and F. Southworth, "Simulating Spatial Patterns of Land-Use Change in Rondonia, Brazil," Some Mathematical Questions in Biology, American Mathematical Society, Garner (ed.), 1992. Dale, V. H., M. A. Pedlowski, and R. V. O'Neill, "Delga: Um Instrumento Na Busca De Alternativas Para a Amazonia," Ciencia Hoie (Science Today: Brazil), 1992. Das, S., and T. R. Curlee, An Assessment of the Cost of Microwave Sintering Ceramic Tiles for Armor Applications: Phase 1 Report, ORNL/TM-12423, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., September 1993. Davis, S. C., and S. G. Strang, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 13, ORNL-6743, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., March 1993. Desjarlais, A. O., "Full-Scale Research Efforts in Low-Slope Roofing," Buildings Magazine, October 1992. Desjarlais, A. O., et al., "Moisture: Its Effects on the Thermal Performance of a Low-Slope Roof System," Proceedings of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air Conditioning Engineers, Denver, ASHRAE Paper No. DE-93-16-3, June 27-30, 1993. Desjarlais, A. O., J. E. Christian, and R. Linkous, "System Effects on the Thermal Aging of Experimental Polyisocyanurate Roof Insulation Foamed with an Alternative Blowing Agent," pp. 391-98 in Proceed- ings of Thermal Performance of the Exterior Envelopes of Buildings, December 1992. Desjarlais, A. O., D. M. Kyle, and J. E. Christian, "The Impact of Climate on the Drying Times of a Wetted Low-Sloped Roof System," pp. 234-45 in Journal of Thermal Insulation and Building Envelopes 16, January 1993. DeVault, R. C., and G. Grossman, "Triple-Effect Absorption Chiller Cycles," pp. 170-178 in Proceedings of 1992 International Gas Research Conference, Vol. IV, Orlando, Fla., November 1992. DeVault, R. C., and G. Grossman, "Facts About Triple-Effect Absorption Chiller Cycles," pp. 26-28 in Gas Industries Journal, September 1993. Ensminger, J. T., R. J. Andermann, and T. J. Biasing, Disposal of Agents and Munitions Stored at Pine Bluff Arsenal, Pine Bluff, Arkansas, Draft Environmental Impact Statement, Department of the Army, Program Manager for Chemical Demilitarization, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Md., December 1992. Ensminger, J. T., and R. B. Mclean, "Reasons and Strategies for More Effective NEPA Implementation," pp. 4-56 in The Environmental Professional 15(i), January 1993.

62 Appendix: Publications, Awards, and Summary Data

Fairchild, P. D., Life-Cycle Analysis Illustrated by HFC 134A and Other CFC Substitutes, Statement for Public Hearing of the Enquete-Kommission of tbe German Budgestag, Bonn, Germany, December 1992. Fairchild, P. D., S. K. Fischer, and P. J. Hughes, "Global Warming Impacts of CFC Alternative Tech- nologies: Combining Fluorocarbon and CO2 Effects," lEA Heat Pump Center Workshop, Merlingen, Switzerland, October 12-13, 1992, Report No. HPC-INR-10, March 1993. Feldman, D. L., "SARA Title III and Community Hazards Planning," pp. 85-97 in International Journal of Mass Emergency Disasters 11, March 1993. Ferguson, T. D., Energy Division Quarterly Highlights Newsletter 2(4), March 1993. Ferguson, T. D., Energy Division Quarterly Highlights Newsletter 3(1), July 1993. Fischer, S. K., P. D. Fairchild, and P. J. Hughes, Energy and Global Warming Impacts of CFC Alternative Technologies, Executive Summary, ORNL/M-1869, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., December 1992. Fischer, S. K., P. D. Fairchild, and P. J. Hughes, "Energy and Global Warming Impacts of CFC Alternative Technologies for Foam Building Insulations," pp. 74-80 in Proceedings of the 5th Conference on Thermal Performance of the Exterior Envelopes of Buildings, Clearwater Beach, Fla., December 7-10, 1992. Fiskum, R. J., G. R. Hadder, and F. C. Chen, "Fuel Cells in Residential and Commercial Building Applications," pp. 1171-76 in Proceedings of the 28th Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference, Vol. 1, Atlanta, August 8-13, 1993. Forsberg, C. W., L.J. Hill, and W. J. Reich, The Changing Structure of the International Commercial Nuclear Power Reactor Industry, ORNL/TM-12284, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., Decem- ber 1992. Fulmer, M., and P. J. Hughes, "The Role of Gas Heat Pumps in Electric DSM," p. 159 in Proceedings of the 6th National Demand-Side Management Conference, Miami Beach, Fla., March 24-26, 1993. Gailey, P. C., "Current Distribution Tomography for Determination of Internal Current Density Distri- butions," pp. 923-31 in Proceedings of Applied Computational Electromagnetics Society, Monterey, Calif., March 1993. Gant, K. S., and M. V. Adler, "From Nuclides to Nerve Gas: The Development of the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program," pp. 11-16 in Proceedings of 15th Annual Trade Conference, St. Petersburg, Fla., November 18-20, 1991, November 1992. Gant, K. S., M. V. Adler, and M. A. Madore, "Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program Exercises: Drawing on the Nuclear Power Plant Experience," pp. 107-10 in Proceedings of 4th TOP l Meeting on Emergency Preparedness and Response, American Nuclear Society, Long Island, N.Y., April 25-29, 1993. Gettings, M. B., "Interaction of Heating and Cooling Energy Conservation Envelope Measures with Mechanical System Retrofits," pp. 687-88 in Proceedings of the 5th Thermal Performance of the Exterior Envelope of Buildings Conference, Clearwater Beach, Fla., 1992. Gettings, M. B., "The Weatherization Assistance Program National Energy Audit (NEAT)," Energy Exchange 3(3), May 1993. Gettings, M. B., J. Krigger, and N. Adams, National Energy Audit (NEAT) User's Manual, ORNL/Sub/91- SK078/1, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., July 1993. Gettings, M. B., and S. L. Purucker, Evaluation of the Computerized Utilities and Energy Monitoring and Control System Installed at the U.S. Army, Europe, 222d, Base Support Battalion, Baumholder, Germany, ORNL/CON-356, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., November 1992. Gettings, M. B., and P. A. Tapp, Evaluation of the Computerized Utilities Energy Monitoring and Control System Installed at the U.S. Army, Europe, 282nd Base Support Battalion, Hohenfels, Germany, ORNL/CON- 358, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., September 1993.

63 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Gibson, D. R., A. K. Rathi, and P. R. Surapaneni, "An Interactive Input Data Manager for the TRAF Simulation System," Fourth International Conference on Microcomputers in Transportation, Baltimore, July 22-24, 1992, ASCE "Microcomputers in Engineering," pp. 459-65, 1993. Goeltz, R. T., S. L. Purucker, and B. E. Tonn, Analysis of Artificial Intelligence Applications for Celilo-Sylmar HVDC Intertie Operations, ORNL/CF-92/201, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., Janu- ary 1993. Greene, D. L., C 'A Intersections 1(2), Center for Transportation Analysis, July 1993. Greene, D. L., "Transportation Energy Policy: Back to the Past or Ahead to the Future?" pp. 111--49 in Proceedings of the 20th Annual Illinois Energy Conference--Twenty Years of Energy Policy: Looking Toward the Twenty-First Century, Energy Resource Center, 1993. Greene, D. L., "Transportation and Energy: The Global Environmental Challenge," pp. 163-66 in Trans- portation Research A 27A(3), Pergamon Press Ltd., May 1993. Greene, D. L., and K. G. Duleep, "Costs and Benefits of Fuel Economy Improvement," pp. 217-36 in Transportation Research A 27A(3), May 1993. Greene, D. L., and P. N. Leiby, The Social Costs to the U.S. of Monopolization of the World Oil Market, 1972-1991, ORNL-6744, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., March 1993. Grubb, J. H., Architectural Analysis for the Worldwide Port System (WPS) Regional Integrated Cargo Database (ICDB), ORNL/TM-12357, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., April 1993. Hake, K. A., and B. G. Key, Acquisition Information Management System Telecommunication Site Survey Results, ORNL/TM-12112, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., August 1993. Hake, K. A., and B. G. Key, Acquisition Information Management System DSNETL Performance Test, ORNL/TM-12113, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., September 1993. Hill, C. V., and I. G. Harrison, "Route Selection Issues for NWPA Shipments," Proceedings of the 1993 International High-Level Waste Meeting, Las Vegas, April 26-30, 1993. Hill, L. J., et al., A Prefeasibility Study of Energy Resource Options in Hainan, China, ORNL/TM-12182, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., October 1992. Hill, L. J., "Integrating Methods and Resource Selection in Electric Utility Planning, pp. 57-61 in Utilities Policy 3(1), January 1993. Hill, L. J., C. w. Forsberg, and W. J. Reich, The European Nuclear Power Industry: Restructuring for Combined Strength and Worldwide Leadership, ORNL-6758, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., June 1993. Hillsman, E. L., "Local Regional PoliciesmActing Globally by Thinking Locally," pp. 81-89 in J. c. White (ed.), Global Climate Change: Linking Energy, Environment, Economy, and Equity, Plenum-Press, 1992. Hillsman, E. L., "Managing Demand for Urban Transportation: Learning from Electric Utility Experi- ence," in Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of American Association of Geographers, Atlanta, April 6-11, 1993. Hinton, D. L., J. c. Conklin, and E. A. Vineyard, "Evaporation of Nonazeotropic Mixture of Refrigerants R-143a and R-124 Flowing Inside Smooth and Corrugated Tubes, Proceedings of ASME 1992 Winter Annual Meeting, Anaheim, Calif., paper 92WA/HT-5, November 1992. Hirst, E., "Evaluating Demand-Side Management Programs," pp. 24-30 in Electr. Perspect. 14(6), November/December 1992. Hirst, E., "The Benefits of Utility Demand-Side Management Programs," pp. 20-21 in Commun. and Meterings, Winter 1992. Hirst, E., A Good Integrated Resource Plan: Guidelines for Electric Utilities and Regulators, ORNL/CON-354, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., December 1992. Hirst, E., "Do Utility DSM Programs Increase Risk?" pp. 24-31 in Electricity Journal 6(4), May 1993.

64 Appendix: Publications, Awards, and Summary Data

Hirst, E., "Evaluation of DSM Programs and Financial Incentives," pp. 187-202 in Regulatory Incentives for Demand-Side Management, S. M. Nadel, et al. (eds.), American Council for an Energy-Efficient Econ- omy, New York State Energy Research & Development Authority, Washington D.C., December 1992. Hirst, E., Electric-Utility DSM Program Costs and Effects: 1991 to 2001, ORNL/CON-364, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., May 1993. Hirst, E., and E. Blank, Regulating As If Customers Matter: Utility Incentives to Affect Load Growth, Land and Water Fund of the Rockies Report, Boulder, Colo., January 1993. Hirst, E., and E. Blank, "Quantifying Regulatory Disincentives to Utility DSM Programs," pp. 1091-1105 in Energy 18(11), June 1993. Hirst, E., B. Driver, and E. Blank, Trial by Fire: A Sensible Integrated Resource Planning Rule for Electric Utilities, Land and Water Fund of the Rockies Report, Boulder, Colo., December 1992. Hirst, E., B. Driver, and E. Blank, "Integrated Resource Planning: A Model Rule," pp. 24-28 in Public Utilities Fortnightly 131(6), March 1993. Hirst, E., et al., "The Next Frontier for Integrated Resource Planning and Demand-Side Management," pp. 44-50 in Electricity Journal 6(1), January/February 1993. Hirst, E., and J. H. Reed, "The Role of Evaluation in Creating the Analytical Foundation of Utility DSM Programs," pp. 257-67 in Energy Systems and Policy 15(4), May 1993. Hirst, E., and E. Yourstone, "Diamond: A New Model for Electric-Utility Resource Planning," pp. 196-207 in Society for Computer Simulation 60(3), March 1993. Hirst, E., E. Yourstone, and M. Gettings, "Resource Planning Model Treats Electric-Utility Uncertainties," pp. 196-207 in Society for Computer Simulation 60(3), March 1993. Hirst, E., Statistical Recoupling: A New Way to Break the Link Between Electric-Utility Sales and Revenues, ORNL/CON-372, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., September 1993. Hu, P. S., "The Role of Personal Travel in Transportation Planning," pp. 3.15-3.18 in Proceedings of the Chinese American Academic Professional Convention, Chicago, July 1993. Hu, P. S., A. Lu, and J. R. Young, Highway Crash Rates and Age-Related Driver Limitations: Literature Review and Evaluation of Data Bases, ORNIZFM-12456, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., September 1993. Hughes, P. J., "An Environmental Rating for Heat Pump Equipment," p. 67 in Proceedings of the Joint U.S./Canada Workshop on Heat Pump Standards for Performance Rating, January 1993. Hughes, P. J., "Space Conditioning Options in the North: What Is Here and What May Come," DSM Quarterly, July 1993. Hughes, P. J., A. J. Brown, and S. R. Simmons, "Heating/Cooling Equipment Market Signals Resulting from Current Residential Electric and Gas Rate-Setting Policies," ASHRAE Transactions, Chicago, Janu- ary 23-27, 1993. Hwang, H. L., et al., "Estimating MDA for Low-Level Radioactivity in a Radiobioassay Laboratory," pp. 72-75 in Proceedings of the Joint Statistical Meeting, American Statistical Association, Boston, August 9-12, 1992. James, D. R., Investigation of $2FIo Production and Mitigation in Compressed SF6-lnsulated Power Systems, Technical Note Number 1 (CRADA ORNL-90-002), ORNL/M-2573, D. R. James (ed.), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., December 1992. Johnson, R. O., J. c. Wang, and D. W. Lee, Local Drainage Analysis of the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, Piketon, Ohio, During an Extreme Storm, K/GDP/SAR-28, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1993. Johnson, R. O., J. c. Wang, and D. W. Lee, Local Drainage Analysis of the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, Paducah, Kentucky, During an Extreme Storm, K/GDP/SAR-29, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1993.

65 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Jones, D. W., and R. V. O'Neill, "Human-Environmental Influences and Interactions in Shifting Agriculture When Farmers Form Expectations Rationally," pp. 121-36 in Environment and Planning A 25(1), January 1993. Jones, D. W., and R. V. O'Neill, "A Two-Sector Model of Land Use and Deforestation: Funding Urban Development with a Tax on Urban and Rural Employment," pp. 57-74 in Some Mathematical Questions in Biology: Predicting Spatial Effects in Ecological Systems. Lectures on Mathematics in the Life Sciences, Vol. 23, American Mathematical Society, Providence, R.I., 1993. Jones, D. W., and R. V. O'Neill, "Human-Environmental Influences and Interactions in Shifting Agricul- ture," T. R. Lakshmanan and P. Nijkamp (eds), pp. 297-309 in Structure and Change in the Space-Economy; Festschrifl in Honor of Martin J. Beckmann, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1993. Jones, D. W., and R. V. O'Neill, "Trade, Land Use, and North-South Atmospheric Carbon Interactions," pp. 353-70 in Resource and Energy Economics, Vol. 15, 1993. Kuliasha, M. A., "Opportunities and Prospects for Energy Efficiency in Asian Countries," Proceedings of the International Conference on Energy Efficiency in Asian Countries, Tokyo, November 4-5, 1992. Kuliasha, M. A., "Opportunities and Prospects for Demand-Side Efficiency Improvements," pp. 266-78 in Project Energy '93 Conference, International Academy of Science, Kansas City, Mo., June 21-23, 1993. Kyle, D. M., The Oak Ridge National Laboratory Automobile Heat Pump Model: User's Guide, ORNL/CON-359, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., May 1993. Kyle, D. M., and R. A. Sullivan, "Heating, Ventilation and Air-Conditioning Systems," pp. 609-16 in Proceedings of Annual Automotive Technology Development Contractors' Coordination Meeting, November 2-5, 1992, Dearborn, Mich., SAE P. 265, May 1993, SAE, Inc., Warrendale, Pa. Lee, D. W., D. C. Kocher, and J. M. Bownds, "Integration and Interpretation of Results from Performance Assessments of Low-Level Radioactive Disposal Facilities," pp. 215-20 in Proceedings of the 14th Low-Level Radioactive Waste Management Conference, Phoenix, Ariz., November 18-20, 1992, March 1993. Lee, R. M., Estimating the Impacts, Damages, and Benefits of Fuel Cycles: Insights from an Ongoing Study, Springer Verlag, June 1993. Lee, R. M., "Environmental Protection Using Social Costing," Proceedings of Chinese American Academic and Professional Convention, Chicago, July 2-5, 1993. Lee, R. M., et al., The External Costs of Fuel Cycles: Background Document to the Approach and Issues, ORNL/M-2500, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., November 1992. Lee, R. R., and W. P. Staub, "The Role of Slope Stability in Cumulative Impact Assessment of Hydropower Development: North Cascades, Washington," pp. 212-14 in Environmental Geology 21(4), August 1993. Leiby, P., A Methodology for Assessing the Market Benefits of Alternative Motor Fuels, ORNL-6771, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., September 1993. Lombardi, D. A., M. D. Morris, and A. P. Watson, "Using Air Dispersion Modeling as a Key Tool for Reentry Decision Making Following an Accidental Release of Chemical Warfare Agent," Proceedings of the 86th Annual Meeting of the Air and Waste Management Association, Vol. 1, Air Modeling Issues, Air and Waste Management Association, Denver, June 1993. MacDonald, J. M., et al., Research Update: Existing Buildings Research, 1989-1991, ORNL/CON-333, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., February 1993. MacDonald, J. M., D. A. Trumble, and J. Farley, "Evaluation of a Lighting Program for Small Commercial and Industrial Buildings in the Northeast, Energy Program Evaluation: Uses, Methods, and Results," pp. 146-54 in Proceedings of the 1993 International Energy Program Evaluation Conference, Chicago, August 25-27, 1993. MacDonald, J. M., and J. c. Wang, "The Response of Systems with Exponential Distributions of Activation Energies for Two Classes of Matheral Temperature," pp. 319-33 in Solid State lonics 60(4), 1993. MacDonald, M., H. McLain, and S. B. Leigh, "Analysis of Savings Due to Efficiency Improvements in Multiple Office Buildings," pp. 4-6 in CADDET Newsletter, No. 2, June 1993.

66 Appendix: Publications, Awards, and Summary Data

McConnell, B. W., P. R. Barnes, and F. M. Tesche, "Experimental Determination of the MHD-EMP Effects on Power Distribution Transformers," Journal of Radiation Effects--Research and Engineering 11, January 1993. McLain, H. A., "Modeling Study of the Cooling Season Performance of Exterior Masonry Wall Insulation," pp. 655-67 in Proceedings of the ASHRAE/DOE/BTECC Conference on Thermal Performance of the Exterior Envelopes of Buildings V, Clearwater Beach, Fla., December 7-10, 1992. McLain, H. A., K. E. Wilkes, and M. P. Ternes, "Modeling Study Examining the Performance of Retro- fitted Exterior Masonry Wall Insulation," Proceedings of the ASHRAE/DOE/BTECC Conference on Thermal Performance of the Exterior Envelopes of Buildings V, Clearwater Beach, Fla., December 7-10, 1992. Mei, V. C., D. M. Kyle, and F. C. Chen, "R-134a Liquid Over-Feeding Mobile Air-Conditioning System," pp. 467-70 in Proceedings of the Vehicle Thermal Management Systems, Columbus, Ohio, March 29-April 1, 1993. Miaou, S. P., P. S. Hu, and T. Wright, "Relationship Between Truck Accidents and Highway Geometric Design: A Poisson Regression Approach," pp. 10-18 in Transportation Research Record 1376, 1992. Miaou, S. P., P. S. Hu, and T. Wright, Development of Relationship Between Truck Accidents and Geometric Design: Phase I, FHWA-RD-91-124, Federal Highway Administration, August 1993. Miller, R. L., Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Healy Clean Coal Project, DOE/EIS-0186, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., November 1992. Patnaik, V., H. Perez-Blanco, and W. A. Ryan, "A Simple Model for the Design of Vertical Tube Absorbers," 1993 ASHRAE Annual Meeting, Denver, June 27-30, 1993, ASHRAE Transactions, 1993. Pedersen, C. R., et al., Moisture Effects in Low-Slope Roofs: Drying Rates After Water Addition with Various Vapor Retarders, ORNL/CON-308, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., October 1992. Perlack, R. D., "Review of Diagnosis of Energy Systems in Developing Countries," p. 67 in Natural Resources Forum 17, February 1993. Perlack, R. D., R. L. Graham, and A. M. G. Prasad, "Land-Use Management and Carbon Sequestering in Sub-Saharan Africa," pp. 197-209 in Journal of Environmental Systems 22(3), 1993. Perlack, R. D., and J. w. Ranney, "Considerations in Implementing Integrated Biomass Energy Systems in Developing Countries," pp. 1855-60 in Proceedings of First Biomass Conference of the Americas, Vol. 3, Burlington, Vt., August 30-September 2, 1993. Perlack, R. D., J. w. Ranney, and L. L. Wright, "Environmental Emissions from Biomass Energy Feed- stocks," pp. 58-65 in Proceedings of Liquid Fuels from Renewable Resources Conference, J. S. Condiff (ed.), Nashville, Tenn., December 14-15, 1992. Perlack, R. D., M. Russell, and Z. Shen, "Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China: Institutional, Legal and Cultural Constraints and Opportunities," pp. 78-100 in Global Environmental Change 3(1), March 1993. Petrich, C. H., "Indonesia and Global Climate Change Negotiations," pp. 53-77 in Global Environmental Change 3(1), March 1993. Petrich, C. H., "The Institutional Role of NGOS in Protecting Indonesia's Treasurehouse of Natural Resources," pp. 18-33 in Current and Future Priorities for Environmental Management, National Associa- tion of Environmental Professionals, Raleigh, N.C., May 24-26, 1993. Petrich, C. H., and R. E. Saylor, Environmental Screening for the Renewable Energy Component of the Indonesia Second Rural Electrification Project. Volume 1: Overview and Methodology and Volume 2: Appendices A-E, prepared for the World Bank, Asia Alternative Energy Unit (ASTAE), Asia Technical Department, in collaboration with the U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Research and Devel- opment, Office of Energy and Infrastructure; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., final draft, August 1993. Power, M., and M. A. Brown, "The Reach of Low-Income Weatherization Assistance," pp. 21-25 in Home Energy 10(4), May/June 1993.

67 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Purucker, S. L., "Substation Reliability-Centered Maintenance," pp. 6-129-6-133 in Proceedings of EPRI Workshop on Advanced Substation Equipment Diagnostics, San Francisco, November 10, 1992, EPRI TR- 102450, May 1993. Rathi, A. K., "The Use of Common Random Numbers to Reduce the Variance in Network Simulation of Traffic," pp. 357-63 in Transportation Research B 26B, October 1992. Rathi, A. K., O. Franzese, and S. Jennings, INET User's Manual, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, May 1993. Reddoch, T. W., R. Markel, and J. L. Thompson, HEMP Emergency Planning and Operating Procedures for Electric Power Systems (title changed), ORNL/Sub/91-SGI05/1, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, January 1993. Rice, C. K., "Influence of HX Size and Augmentation on Performance Potential of Mixtures in Air-to-Air Heat Pumps," ASHRAE Annual Meeting, Denver, June 26-30, 1993, pp. 665-79 in ASHRAE Transactions 99(2), 1993. Rice, C. K., and J. R. Sand, "Compressor Calorimeter Performance of Refrigerant Blends--Comparative ! Methods and Results for a Refrigerator/Freezer Application," ASHRAE Winter Meeting, Chicago, Janu- ary 24-27, pp. 1447-66 in ASHRAE Transactions 99(1), 1993. Rust, W. W., and J. E. Christian, "A Shape Factor Method for Computing Heat Loads from Building Slab-on-Grade Foundations," pp. 189-92 in Proceedings of the ASHRAE/DOE/BTECC Conference on Ther- mal Performance of the Exterior Envelopes of Buildings V, Clearwater Beach, Fla., December 7-10, 1992. Sale, M. J., et al., Final Environmental Impact Statement, Proposed Modifications to the Lower Mokelumne River Project, California, FERC/FEIS-0067, Division of Project Compliance and Administration, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 1993. Sand, J. R., and S. K. Fischer, Modeled Performance of Non-Chlorinated Substitutes for CFC-11 and CFC-12 in Centrifugal Chillers, EPRI RP2891-14, Electric Power Research Institute, October 1992. Sand, J. R., and C. K. Rice, "Compressor Calorimeter Performance Comparisons of R-12 and Nonazeo- tropic Refrigerant Mixtures for a Refrigerator/Freezer Application," Proceedings of International Chloro- fluorocarbon and Halon Alternatives Conference, Washington, D.C., September 29-October 1, 1992. Sand, J. R., C. K. Rice, and E. A. Vineyard, Alternative Refrigerants and Refrigeration Cycles for Domestic Refrigerators, ORNL/M-2270, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., December 1992. Sand, J. R., E. A. Vineyard, and V. D. Baxter, "Laboratory Evaluation of an Ozone-Safe Nonazeotropic Refrigerant Mixture in a Lorenz-Meutzner Refrigerator Freezer Design," pp. 1467-81 in ASHRAE Transactions Journal 99(1), 1993. Sand, J. R., E. A. Vineyard, and R. H. Bohman, "Experimental/Analytical Investigation of Design Options for Efficient Refrigerator-Freezers," Proceedings of ASHRAE Summer Meeting, Denver, June 26-30, 1993. Schexnayder, S. M., and A. K. Wolfe, "Waste-To-Energy: Decision Making and the Decisions Made, Cur- rent and Future Priorities for Environmental Management," pp. 771-83 in NAEP 18th Annual Conference ! Proceedings, National Association of Environmental Professionals, Washington, D.C., 1993. Schweitzer, M., et al., Interactive Efforts to Address DSM and IRP Issues: Findings from the First Year of a Two-Year Study, ORNL/CON-357, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., April 1993. Schweitzer, M., and J. Raab, "Key Factors Affecting the Success of Demand-Side Management Collabo- ratives," pp. 501-12 in Proceedings of the International Energy Efficiency and DSM Conference, Toronto, Ontario, October 20-22, 1992. Schweitzer, M., and J. Raab, "Demand-Side Management Collaboratives: What Characteristics Lead to Success," pp. 47-57 in Electricity Journal 5(A), November 1992. Schweitzer, M., J. w. Saulsbury, and S. M. Schexnayder, "Renewing the Licenses of U.S. Nuclear Plants: An Assessment of the Socioeconomic Impacts," pp. 839-50 in Proceedings of the 18th Annual Conference of National Association of Environmental Professionals, Raleigh, N.C., May 24-26, 1993.

68 Appendix: Publications, Awards, and Summary Data

Schweitzer, M., A. K. Wolfe, and R. B. Braid, "Studying Technology Intrusion in Linear Communities: The Case of Air Force Low-Altitude Training Routes," pp. 304-15 in The Environmental Professional 15(3), 1993. Sharp, T. R., "Advancing Weatherization Performance: Measured Results from the North Carolina Field Test of an Advanced Measure Selection Technique," pp. 711-18 in Proceedings of the 1993 International Conference on Energy Program Evaluation, Chicago, August 25-27, 1993. Sharp, T. R., and J. M. MacDonald, "Energy Savings and Interactions from Retrofit Measures in Small Commercial Buildings in Bostoq," pp. 31-38 in Proceedings of the ASHRAE/DOE/BTECC Conference on Thermal Performance of the Exterior Envelopes of Buildings V, Clearwater Beach, Fla., December 7-10, 1992. Shelton, R. B., J. B. Cannon, and M. A. Kuliasha, Energy Division Annual Progress Report for Period Ending September 30, 1992, ORNL-6750, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., April 1993. Shelton, R. B., et al., Advisory Committee Notebook for 1993 Energy Division Information Meeting, ORNL/M- 2799, 1993 Energy Division Annual Information Meeting, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., May 12-14, 1993. Shumpert, B. L., Planning Standards for Response-Phase Decontamination, Planning Guidance for the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program, Appendix A, November 1992. Shumpert, B. L., Planning Standards for Response-Phase Decontamination, Planning Guidance for the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program, Appendix B, November 1992. Shumpert, B. L., Planning Standards for Response-Phase Decontamination, Planning Guidance for the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program, Appendix D, September 1993. Shumpert, B. L., Planning Standards for Response-Phase Decontamination, Planning Guidance for the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program, Appendix E, September 1993. Shumpert, B. L., and L. L. Williams, Planning Standards for Response-Phase Decontamination, Planning Guid- ance for the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program, Appendix G, November 1992. Shumpert, B. L., Planning Standards for Response-Phase Decontamination, Planning Guidance for the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program, Appendix J, November 1992. Shumpert, B. L., and L. L. Williams, Planning Standards for Response-Phase Decontamination, Planning Guid- ance for the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program, Appendix K, November 1992. Solanki, R. S., and J. L. Cohon, "Approximating the Noninferior Set in Multiobjective Linear Program- ming Problems," pp. 356-73 in European Journal of Operational Research 68, Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., January 1993. Statistics and Data Analysis Group, 1990 Nationwide Truck Activity and Commodity Survey: Selected Tabulations, ORNL/TM-12361, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., June 1993. Svec, o. J., and V. D. Baxter, "Heat Pump Systems with Direct Expansion Ground Coils," pp. 40-1--40-21 in Proceedings of the Meeting Customer Needs with Heat Pumps, APRI TR- 101944, Dallas, October 15-19, 1991, December 1992. Ternes, M. P., "Affordable Cooling with Window Air Conditioners," pp. 23-29 in Home Energy 10(4), July 1993. Ternes, M. P., and K. E. Wilkes, "Air-Conditioning Electricity Savings and Demand Reductions from Exterior Masonry Wall Insulation Applied to Arizona Residences," Proceedings of 1993 ASHRAE Summer Meeting, Denver, June 27-30, 1993, pp. 843-54 in ASHRAE Transactions 99(2), 1993. Tesche, F. M., and P. R. Barnes, "Geomagnetic Storm Environments and Effects on Electrical Systems," pp. 105.-10 in Proceedings of l Oth International Zurich Symposium and Technical Exhibition on Electromagnetic Compatibility, Zurich, Switzerland, March 9-11, 1993. Tonn, B. E., et al., "Technology and the 21 st Century Government Organization," pp. 75-91 in Proceedings of the 5th Advanced Technology Conference, Vol. 1, USPS, November 1992.

69 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

Treitler, I. E., and T. Greider, "Cultural Impact Assessment," Meeting of the Society for Applied Anthropology, San Antonio, Tex., March 10-14, 1993. Vogt, B. M., and J. H. Sorensen, Evacuation: An Assessment of Planning and Research, ORNI.dFM-11908, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., November 1992. Waddle, D. B., and R. D. Perlack, "Financing Small Energy Systems for Rural Electrification," pp. 1255-62 in Energy: The International Journal 17, December 1992. Wagner, C. L., and W. E. Feero, Recommended Engineering Practice to Enhance the EMI/EMP Immunity of Electric Power Systems, ORNL/Sub/91-SG913/I, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., December 1992. White, D. L., M. S. Irby, and M. S. Beyer, Achievements of the Office of Technical and Financial Assistance Information Services Program: Analysis of Operations and Service Delivery, ORNL/CON-355, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., May 1993. Wilbanks, T. J., et al., "Potentials to Transfer the U.S. NEPA Experience to Developing Countries," pp. 728-42 in Environmental Analyses: The NEPA Experience, Boca Raton, Fla., CRC Press, 1993. Witten, A. J., A. J. Devaney, and A. Schatzberg, Enhanced Signal Processing Algorithms for Tunnel Detection, K/NSP-108, February 1993. Wolfe, A. K., "Risk Communication in Social Context: Improving Effective Communication," The Environmental Profes:ional 15(3): 248-255, 1993. Yambert, M. W., and M. A. Linn, "Assessment of the Exposure Index as a Means of Predicting Potential Consequences Associated with Nuclear Power Plant Accidents," Proceedings of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment International Topical Meeting, Clearwater, Fla., January 26-29, 1993. Zaltash, A., and M. R. Ally, "Predicting Viscosities of Aqueous Salt Mixtures," AES, Vol. 28, Recent Research in Heat Pump Design, Analysis and Application, ASME 1992, published November 1992. Zaltash, A., D. J. Fraysier, and T. S. Ruder, Heat and Mass Transfer of Binary and Quaternary AmmoniaWater Fluids, ORNL/CF-93/204, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., July 1993. Zaltash, A., R. H. Reiner, and D. J. Fraysier, Electrochemical Corrosion and Vapor Pressure of Potential Fluids for AmmoniaWater Absorption Cycles, ORNL/CF-93/52, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., April 1993. Zelinski, R. W., "1992 National Census for District Heating, Cooling, and Cogeneration," Workshop Pro- ceedings, July 1993. Zimmerman, G. P., D. L. Feldman, and E. L. Hillsman, Disposal of Chemical Agents and Munitions Stored at Umatilla Depot Activity, Hermiston, Oregon: Final Phase I Environmental Report, ORNIfFM-11212, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., February 1993.

70 Appendix: Publications, Awards, and Summary Data

WORKSHOPSANDSYMPOSIAORGANIZEDBYENERGYDIVISIONSTAFF

Building Envelopes V Conference, Clearwater, Fla., December 5-11, 1992, organized by P. M. Love. CSEPP Automation/Planning Conference, Lakewood, Colo., March 15-19, 1993, organized by J. H. Sorensen. CSEPP EBS Symposium/Public Affairs Subcommittee Meeting, Arlington, Va., January 25-29, 1993, organized by J. H. Sorensen. CSEPP Exercise Workshop, Argonne, Ill., December 15-16, 1992, organized by M. V. Adler and K. S. Gant. CSEPP National Conference, Baltimore, Md., May 4-6, 1993, organized by J. H. Sorensen. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Operations and Energy Audit Training, Orlando, Fla., August 1-6, 1993, organized by W. R. Mixon. International Symposium on Power Generation Choices, Washington, D.C., September 23-24, 1993, organized by R. B. Shelton. Joint U.S./European Fuel Cycles Externalities Study Meeting, Oak Ridge, Tenn., October 7-9, 1992, organized by R. M. Lee. National EMF Advisory Board, Washington, D.C., August 4-6, 1993, organized by P. C. Gailey. National Weatherization Evaluation Working Group Meeting, Oak Ridge, Tenn., February 2-3, 1993, organized by M. A. Brown. NEPA Symposium at the 18th Annual National Association of Environmental Professionals, Raleigh, N.C., May 24-26, 1993, chaired by R. E. Saylor. Nuclear as a Large-Scale Global Energy Option, Oak Ridge, Tenn., September 28-30, 1993, organized by T. D. Anderson. NYSERDA Advisory Committee Meeting, Albany, N.Y., June 11, 1993, organized by M. A. Brown. Public Hearings on the Draft Environmental Impact Statement on the Healy Clean Coal Project, Healy, Fairbanks, and Anchorage, Alaska, December 7, 9, and 10, 1992, organized by R. L. Miller. Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Technology Workshop, Breckenridge, Colo., June 23-25, 1993, organized by S. K. Fischer and P. J. Lewis. Roof Consultants Institute Region II Meeting, Oak Ridge, Tenn., August 20, 1993, organized by J. E. Christian. Technology Commercialization Working Group Meeting, Washington, D.C., May 6-7, 1993, organized by M. A. Brown. Technology Transfer Regional Meeting IV, Knoxville, Tenn., May 4-6, 1993, organized by P. M. Love. Transmission Workshop, Jackson Hole, Wyo., October 5-6, 1992, organized by D. C. Bauer. U.S./Russian Workshop on U.S. Electric Power Industry, Knoxville, Tenn., October 13-16, 1992, organized by D. C. Bauer and R. B. Shelton.

71 Appendix: Publications, Awards, and Summary Data

| m It

ENERGYDIVISIONSPONSORS,EXPENDITURESAND,COMMITMENTSOFSCIENTIFICSTAFFFOR FY1993

Scientific staff (person-years)

Direct Energy Other person-year Subcontract Sponsor Expenditures a Division divisions costs a costs a

Department of Energy work

Assistant Secretary for Conservation and 21,025 53.5 2.9 8,407 8,466 Renewable Energy Office of Environmental Restoration and 1,026 6.6 2.4 !,418 95 Waste Management Energy Information Administration 371 1.4 0.0 182 157 Office of Energy Research 328 1.6 0.0 233 16 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 595 1.7 1.4 491 46 Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy 839 3.4 1.0 659 26 Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy 276 0,7 0.3 148 95 Office of Domestic and International 2,695 7.6 1.3 1,362 1,005 Energy Policy Other Assistant Secretaries 417 1.3 0.6 285 82 Total DOE 27,572 77.8 9.9 13,185 9,988

Other federal agencies work

Department of Defense 6,845 13.7 6.2 2,908 2,833 Department of Transportation 3,415 10.3 0.5 1,535 1,313

I Federal Emergency Management Agency 1,746 5.0 0.7 793 676 Department of State-USAID 442 1.1 0.0 203 102 National Science Foundation 419 1.8 0.7 377 0 Nuclear Regulatory Commission 214 1.1 0.2 192 0 Environmental Protection Agency 356 1.2 0.0 170 160 Other 181 0.6 0.0 91 67 Total other federal agencies 13,618 34.8 8.3 6,269 5,151

Private organizations work

Gas Research Institute 148 0.4 0.0 42 15 TAMS Consultants, Inc. 148 0.5 0.0 68 32 CRADAs 113 0.2 0.0 31 0 Other 407 1.5 0.3 280 80 Total private organizations work 816 2.6 0.3 421 127

Total Energy Division 42,006 115.2 18.5 19,875 15,266

aDollars expressed in thousands.

73 Energy Division Annual Progress Report

• • | ENERGYDNISlON September 1993

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74 Appendix: Publications, Awards, and Summary Data ! D

LEGEND:

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IVHSRESEARCHGROUP H,L Hwang M B._' 11ECHNOtOGYIM_tEMENINION D.B. Woddle' Co_ A. K,Raltg E.M. Schom J.J.Tomlnl_n Coord_alor and Radallon Secm(aly L F.fnJOIt' J. O,KoI:)' M. S.Bronzlnl' ADVANCED11ECHN(XHOUSINGOGtES RJ.Hughes' iI_lERNA11ONENERGYN. ConlrolOfficer S.S.Stevens' Si_ECIASSlGNN. _NT R.L Wench i J.R.Sand ' CCXLNI(:_ON RK)GRAMS E.A.HazardVkteyafdCom-nurdcollon'Aitemale R.S.Solardd' - R.K.Grydet -- M.A._oc_ i Coofcllr_ll_ E,G.Thompson' K.A.RHakeJ. Dale/' W.R.Mkon ' IHERMAA, ZallolhANOL ENVIR(:N_N_I S.M.cohn ' Hazard F.C. Chert' M. Aym_' V,C, Met' J, _e" t CR_.W.M.qTECHNOLOGY_' ,, , IN1ERNM. KeyNIQN_' COU.N, NIORATION ENERGYSW_IEM£ M.B.Ge.ings ' J. O.K_b' B.W.M,.cConrml' H.A. Nk:_ ' F,RUppd" RTapp" i

INTERNALDISTRIBUTION

1. M. M. Abraham 66. S. M. Cohn 2. R. D. Adams 67. R. E. Conrad 3. P.W. Adcock 68. C.J. Coomer 4. M. V. Adler 69. E. D. Copenhaver 5. G. L. Akers 70. L. D. Corbett 6. T. D. Anderson 71. D. M. Counce 7. B. R. Appleton 72.-92. G. E. Courville ! 8. J. A. Atchley 93.-118. T. R. Curlee 9. M. B. Bailey 119. A. H. Curtis 10. D.T. Bain 120. C. L. Dagley 11. K. R. Ballew 121. P.J. Daley 12. K. M. Barnes 122. S. R. Damewood 13. P. R. Barnes 123. S. Das 14. D. C. Bauer 124. S. C. Davis 15. L.W. Baxter 125, A. O. Desjarlais 16. V. D. Baxter 126. R. C. DeVault 17. L. G. Berry 127. S. W. Diegel 18. D. P. Bivens 128. M. E. Downing 19. D.J. Bjornstad 129. W. P. Dykas 20. T.J. Biasing 130. B.T. Edwards 21. E. L. Blaylock 131. L. S. Edwards 22. T. M. Bodine 132. S. R. Elliott 23. V. M. Bolinger 133. J. T. Ensminger 24. C. R. Boston 134. P. D. Fairchild 25. K. E. Bowman 135. T. D. Ferguson 26. R. B. Braid 136. S. K. Fischer 27. M.A. Broders 137. S. B. Floyd 28--48. M. S. Bronzini 138. C. B. Foust 49. C. L. Brown 139. D.J. Fraysier 50. M.A. Brown 140. W. Fulkerson 51. M. T. Bruer 141. P. C. Gailey 52. M. D. Bunner 142. K. S. Gant 53. J. c. Burns 143. M. B. Gettings 54. I. K. Busch 144. L. D. Gilliam 55. J. B. Cannon 145. F. M. Glenn 56. R. S. Carlsmith 146. R.T. Goeltz 57. S. A. Carnes 147. S. R. Gordon 58. F. C. Chen 148. L. D. Gosslee 59. M. D. Cheng 149. D. L. Greene 60. P. W. Childs 150. R. K. Gryder 61. S. M. Chin 151. G. R. Hadder 62.-65. J. E. Christian 152. S.W. Hadley t

153. C.W. Hagan 207. H.A. McLain 154. K.A. Hake 208. V. C. Mei 155. G. F. Hamlin 209. S. P. Miaou 156. C.V. Hardin 210. D. P. Middendorf 157. I. G. Harrison 211. R. L. Miller 158. M.A. Hensley 212. W. A. Miller 159. S. G. Hildebrand 213. W. R. Mixon

*A 160. L.J. Hill 214. C. L. Moody 161. M. R. Hilliard 215. S. A. Moore 162. E. L. Hillsman 216. O. B. Morgan 163. E.A. Hirst 217. C. I. Moser 164. R. B. Honea 218. J. F. Munro 165. P. S. Hu 219. R.W. Murphy 166. P.J. Hughes 220. N. C. Myers 167. M. G. Huskey 221. S.J. Norton 168. H. L. Hwang 222. C. E. Oliver 169. N.J. Jett 223. G. D. Overton 170. J. E. Johnson 224. J. L. Parham 171. R. O. Johnson 225. R. R. Parks 172. S. S. Joiner 226. E. B. Peelle 173. B. K. Jones 227. R. D. Perlack 174. D. W. Jones 228. B. E. Peterson 175. J. R. Kahn 229. C. H. Petrich 176. C. R. Kerley 230. N. L. Pope 177. R. H. Ketelle 231. S. L. Purucker 178. B.J. Kirby 232. A. K. Rathi 179. K. L. Kline 233-243. R. M. Reed 180. J. O. Kolb 244. D. E. Reichle 181. M.A. Kuliasha 245. C. K. Rice 182. D.W. Lee 246. J. B. Richard 183. R. M. Lee 247. C. R. Richmond 184. R. R. Lee 248. C. G. Rizy 185. P. N. Leiby 249. D.T. Rizy 186. W. P. Levins 250. I. F. Robbins 187-197. P.J. I_tvis 251. T. H. Row 198. R. L. Linkous 252. M. Russell 199. C. Liu 253. M.J. Saltrrarsh 200. J. P. Loftis 254. J. R. Sand 201. D. P. Lombardi 255. J. w. Saulsbury 202. P. M. Love 256. R. E. Saylor 203. J. M. MacDonald 257. E. M. Schorn 204. M.W. Marsh 258. M. Schweitzer 205. L. N. McCold 259. R. N. Scogin 206. B.W. McConnell 260. T. R. Sharp 261. R. B. Shelton 286. J. w. Van Dyke 262. J. A. Shonder 287. R. I. Van Hook 263. T.J. Simmons 288. E. A. Vineyard 264. M. L. Socolof 289. K. A. Vogel 265. R. S. Solanki 290. B. M. Vogt 266. J. E. Sorensen 291. D. P. Vogt 267. J. H. Sorensen 292. M. K. Voss 268. F. Southworth 293. M. C. Wade 269. W. P. Staub 294. M. E. Walsh 270. S. S. Stevens 295. J. c. Wang 271. c. D. Steelman 296. L. A. Warneke 272. J. o. Stiegler 297. R. L. Wendt 273. J. P. Stovall 298. D. L. White 274. S.A. Surdam 299. T.J. Wilbanks 275. J. H. Swanks 300. A.J. witten 276. R. K. Tallent 301. A. K. Wolfe 277. M. E. Talley 302. P. P. Wolff 278. M. P. Ternes 303. S. B. Wright 279. E. G. Thompson 304. G. P. Zimmerman 280. J.J. Tomlinson 305. K. H. Zimmerman 281. B. E. Tonn 306. ORNL Patent Office 282. A. W. Trivelpiece 307. Document Reference Section 283. L. F. Truett 308. Central Research Library 284. D.A. Trumble 309-311. Laboratory Records 285. J. Vancoevering 312. Laboratory Records (Record Copy)

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