No. 17 ESCAP/WMO September 2005

Typhoon Committee Newsletter

Thirty-Seventh Session of the Committee

Prevention Award was presented to ’s National Meteorological Center during the opening of the session. The session also elected China’s Xu Xiaofeng and USA’s Jeffrey LaDouce, as chairman and vice-chairman of the Committee, respectively.

Reviewing the activities under its meteorological, hydrological, and disaster prevention and preparedness components, as well as in training and research, the Committee established the work- ing groups on meteorology (WGM) and disaster prevention and preparedness (WGDPP), and also re-established the working group on hydrology (WGH). Opening of the thirty-seventh session of the Typhoon Committee held at the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau conference hall. The WGM was requested to address the issues on the level of Asia-Pacific meteorologists from UNEP, UN-ISDR, CAS and ADRC attended the 5-day advancement and capacity of meeting in the thirty-seventh session. the members’ National Meteoro- annual session of the Typhoon Com- logical and Hydrological Services mittee held in Shanghai, China on Opening remarks were delivered (NMHSs); sharing of experiences 16-20 November 2004, discussed by Hu Yan Zhao, Mayor of Shang- among members; and linkages year-round efforts to strengthen hai; Qin Dahe, administrator of with requirements and activities of weather forecasting capabilities to China Meteorological Administra- other TC working groups, and mitigate the damaging effects of tion; Le-Huu Ti, representative of training and research. in the western North the Economic and Social Commis- Pacific region which includes China, sion for Asia and the Pacific The Committee called on inter- Japan, , the countries of (ESCAP) and Eisa H. Al-Majed, national organizations to provide Southeast Asia and USA. representative of the World Mete- support to future activities of the

orological Organization (WMO). WGDPP. More than 80 representatives from members of the regional In simple rite, the 2004 Typhoon The Committee also urged the working group including observers Committee Natural Disaster ESCAP, WMO, other development

37th Session of Typhoon Committee ...... 1 Typhoon Committee Contents 2004 Typhoon Committee Natural Disaster WMO Secretariat Prevention Award ...... 3 T Changes ...... 4 Manila, News from TC Members ...... 4 ESCAP partners and its own members to provide assistance for capacity building to Cambodia, DPRK (North Korea) and Laos through training fellowships and attach- ments to advanced centers, and upgrading of observation and telecommunication facilities even as the WMO decided to reduce the support cost of the Typhoon Committee Trust Fund (TCTF) from 13% to 7%.

The Committee approved to hold the Regional Workshop on Effective Warning, to be held in China in April 2005, and the Workshop on Risk Management towards Millennium Development Goals and Socio- Top officials (from left), Dr Xu Xiaofeng, Chairman of TC; Dr Roman L. Kintanar, Interim Secretary of economic Impact Assessment of TC; Mr. Le-Huu Ti, ESCAP representative; Dr Qin Dahe, CMA Administrator; Mr Hu Yan Zhao, Typhoon-related Disasters for TC Shanghai Deputy-Mayor; Mr Eisa H. Al-Majed, WMO representative; and Mr Sheng Jiarong, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau director-general, preside the opening of the 37th session. hydrologists, in Malaysia in Sep- tember 2005. The AWG was also tasked to of its first operational geo- undertake the process of collecting stationary meteorological satellite, On achieving the goals of the additional information and to FY-2C, located at 105oE, on 19 Regional Cooperation Program develop hosting options for the TC October 2004. The FY-2C will be Implementation Plan (RCPIP), the secretariat for sound decision- brought to full operation in March Committee requested the Advisory making through visits and consulta- 2005. Working Group (AWG) and the tions with members. Typhoon Committee Secretariat The session concluded with the (TCS), to develop a strategic The Committee also approved to approval of the offer from the annual work plan providing allocate additional resources to Government of Viet Nam to host detailed actions and specific c r e a t e measures for this purpose, in a world-class consultation with all the members. TC website in order to help boost and strengthen its image as a result-oriented r e g i o n a l organization.

It requested Hong Kong to assist in the registration of Representatives of Viet Nam p r o p e r domain names and to draw up a the thirty eighth session of the detailed action plan for this purpose. Committee in Hanoi in November 2005. Meanwhile, China informed its co- members of the successful launching Dr. Kintanar speaks at the session

Page 2 TC Newsletter No. 17 CMA’s National Meteorological Center wins Typhoon Committee Natural Disaster Prevention Award 2004

system for tropical cyclone tracks which improved efficiency of forecasters and the quality of operational tropical cyclone track prediction.

The 2004 annual TC award was recieved by NMC director-general Jiao Meiyan, on behalf of the NMC, during the opening of the 37th session of TC, in Shang- hai, China, on 16 November 2004. TCFI Chairman Roman L. Kintanar and board of director Angelo B. Palmones presided the simple award presentation.

Year 2004 marked the awarding of the thirteenth TC Award, a pet project of the TCFI which was first presented in 1989 in Tokyo, Japan, to honor outstanding achievements in disaster prevention awareness. No NMC director-general Jiao Meiyan beams with pride as she accepts the TC award from TCFI chairman Roman L. Kintanar (right) and board of direc- award was presented in 1991 and 1998. tor Angelo Palmones.

The National Meteorological Center (NMC) of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) received the 2004 Typhoon Committee Natural Disaster Prevention Award, for its second win, having shared the prize in 1992 with China’s Flood Control Headquarters.

The NMC was voted for its continued and un- relenting efforts in improving China’s operational fore- casting system for the benefit of disaster preparedness and mitigation, including the establishment of 1) global typhoon-track numerical prediction system which reduced forecasting error by 100 km in the 48-hour forecasts; 2) the new generation Doppler weather radar which greatly enhanced accuracy in locating center of typhoon over Chinese coastal waters; and 3) the operational multi-member ensemble forecast Director-General Meiyan delivers her acceptance speech.

T C hanges on 16 October 2004. Shin, 53, from 2001 to 2004 and served as earned his doctorate and master’s director of the Numerical Weather Shin named new degree in Meteorology from Texas Prediction Division from 1991 to administrator A&M University (1986) and Univer- 1996. of KMA sity of Illinois (1982), respectively. Shin has actively participated r. Kyung-sup Shin joined the KMA in 1990 as a in the international activities of Dr. Shin D forecaster. Prior to being named WMO as permanent representative Shin was appointed administrator, he was director of of the Republic of Korea. He is a as administrator of the Korea Me- the Forecast Bureau. He held the member of Korea Meteorological teorological Administration (KMA) post as director-general of the Society, American Meteorological succeeding Dr. Myoung-Hwan Ahn Climate and Forecast Bureaus Society and American Geophysical

TC Newsletter No. 17 Page 3 Union. service. Resources and the National Foong obtained a degree in Environment Agency for 31 years Foong is new Chemical Engineering from the working in the field of air, water director-general Un iv ersity of Can terbury, and noise pollution control, of SMS New Zealand in 1974 and post- wastewater treatment, environ- graduate diploma in Sanitary mental planning and building Engineering from the Institute of development control. r. Chee Leong M Mr. Foong Hydraulic and Environmental Foong has been Engineering, Delft, Netherlands in He was head of the Pollution appointed as director general of the 1987. Control Department prior to Singapore Meteorological Services his appointment as director-general on 22 June 2005, taking over from Foong has been with the of the Meteorological Services Mr. Shih Lai Woon who retired from Ministry of Environment and Water Division.

NEWS FROM TC MEMBERS

PHILIPPINES

Press conference on typhoon impact

The Typhoon Committee Foundation, Inc. (TCFI) con- ducted a press conference on typhoon impact on Decem- ber 10 on the heels of four powerful typhoons (Muifa, Mer- vok, Nanmadol and Winnie-local name) that struck northern Philippines in a span of two weeks, late Novem- ber to early December 2004 which claimed the lives of more than a thousand people. The meeting was co- organized by the Typhoon Committee Secretariat (TCS) in Angelo Palmones of TCFI (speaking) with PAGASA information officer cooperation with PAGASA. Venus Valdemoro, Hon. Francis Escudero (center) and TC secretary Roman Kintanar at the press conference. MELANIE AQUINO Dr. Roman Kintanar, interim secretary of TC, briefed the press on the current capabilities of hydrometeorologi- cal services in the region to mitigate the adverse effects of PAGASA day, WMD 2005 marked typhoons. He said the worsening global warming was causing stronger typhoons as high as 250 kph and that the best step to mitigate damage was to have accurate warnings where these typhoons would hit.

Kintanar advised the government to be better pre- pared for these super storms, adding the TCFI was trying to help the Typhoon Committee and that the Philippines, for its part, should step up efforts to improve its warning system.

Guest speaker, Congress representative Francis Escud- ero, who supports pro-active action in dealing with natu- ral calamities regretted that the request of PAGASA for increased budget was not heeded by the House majority under the 2005 Gen. Appropriations Act of Congress. He added that he and other congressmen were pooling their own contributions to support PAGASA and the TCFI. Science undersecretary R. Panlasigui assisted by Dr. Kintanar and

Page 4 TC Newsletter No. 17 Weathermen left their work places and took to the The activities included exhibits, film showing, lectures, streets to mark the 140th anniversary of the Philippine open forum and technical presentations which focused on Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Administra- the WMD 2005 theme – Weather, Water, Climate and tion (PAGASA) in joint observance of 55th World Sustainable Development. The affair was led by PAGASA Meteorological Day on 21 March 2005. The morning exer- officer-in-charge Graciano P. Yumul, Jr., DOST Undersec- cise kicked off a daylong WMD functions organized by the retary Rogelio A. Panlasigui, and PAGASA deputy- local weather agency in line with the double celebra- directors Nathaniel T. Servando, Prisco D. Nilo and Martin tion. F. Rellin, Jr.

Int’l geoscientists The Philippines officially declared the third week of June 2005 as meeting held Typhoon and Flood Awareness week aimed at addressing the need to educate the public and promote hazards and miti- n international meeting of A gation awareness on geoscientists organized by the typhoon and flood through Romblon Working Group in coop- public information eration with PAGASA, was held in dissemination campaigns Romblon, southern Philippines, from throughout the archipel- June 6-12, 2005 with participants ago. from France, China, Japan, and the Philippines. The Philippine Science Journalists Association, The Romblon International Meet- Inc. (PsciJourn) was tasked ing (RIM) also included a 2-day to undertake appropriate conference held in Quezon City and i n f o r m a t i o n , a post-meeting fieldwork conducted Poster-making contest winners (elementary level) pose with communication and edu- in Tablas Island and Buruanga science sec. E. Alabastro and TC sec. R. L. Kintanar. Roque Adora cational activities with the Peninsula. Geoscientists presented support of the PAGASA, scientific papers and discussed the Typhoon Committee Foundation, Inc. (TCFI), other government agencies geologic and tectonic evolution of and the private sector. Southeast Asia and the Philippines. The typhoon and flood awareness week was launched at a press PAGASA’s participation was conference on June 17, organized by PAGASA, TCFI and PsciJourn and centered on its proposals to mitigate co-sponsored by the de- landslides and tsunamis in light of partment of Local Govern- the recent landslide disaster in ment. The conference Aurora province and the great included the awarding of December 26 Indian Ocean tsunami. winners of the on-the-spot poster making contest for elementary and high school National typhoon and flood students. awareness week launched A seminar/workshop on disaster preparedness on typhoons and floods was also held in PAGASA graced by science secretary

Estrella Alabastro, local High School level winners R. ADORA government secretary Angelo Reyes, TCFI chairman and TCS secretary Roman L. Kintanar, PAGASA officer-in-charge Graciano Yumul, Jr., other PAGASA officials and members of media. Yumul spoke on the 4-point Action Plan for disaster preparedness prepared by the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC). Yumul Jr. R. ADORA

TC Newsletter No. 17 Page 5

weather tracking radar reopened

PAGASA’s newly upgraded weather radar, located in Aparri, northern Philippines, was back to full operation in July 2005. The radar, part of PAGASA’s network of meteorological radar systems, is expected to strengthen the country’s capacity in detecting approaching tropical cyclones.

The Aparri radar was damaged in 2001 in the aftermath of typhoon Feria. Four other weather radars undergoing repair are located in the provinces of Virac, Baler, Butuan and Baguio.

The formal launching of the Aparri radar was attended by local officials View of Aparri radar R. ADORA led by Cagayan governor Edgar Lara and Aparri mayor Ismael Tumaru. DOST and PAGASA officials were headed by science secretary Estrella Alabastro and director Graciano Yumul Jr., respectively.

Meanwhile, a four-year project between the Philippines and Australia was launched in July for the purpose of finding ways to integrate seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) into the risk management practices of local farmers and other decision makers. SCFs, which predict the probability of rainfall, are issued prior to the start of an agricultural season.

The launching ceremony was attended by, among others, Director G. Yumul of PAGASA, Australian Ambassador Tony Hely, Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) president Josef Yap and Philippines country manager Cecilia Honrado of the Australian Center for Inter- Guest officials at the Aparri radar reopening national Agricultural research (ACIAR). ceremony. R. ADORA

r. Chow Kok Kee, chairman F. Rellin, Jr. and Prisco Nilo regard- AWG Chairman visits D ing the details of the offer for the TCS and PAGASA of the Typhoon Committee Advisory continued hosting of TCS by the Working Group (AWG), visited the Philippines. Typhoon Committee Secretariat (TCS) and PAGASA on 18-20 Sep- James Weyman, vice chairman of tember 2005, to gather additional AWG and director of RSMC Hono- information on the Philippines’ offer lulu cancelled his participation in the regarding hosting of TCS. AWG mission to be with emergency

managers in Hawaii as tropical cy- Chow met with the secretary of clones threatened the islands. Chow Typhoon Committee, Roman L. proceeded to Macau for the second Kintanar, and PAGASA deputy di- Dr. Chow (right) during his talks with TCS and leg of the AWG mission. PAGASA officials. R. Adora rectors Nathaniel Servando, Martin

distribution since 15 April 2005. The product, based on HONG KONG outputs of the Hong Kong Observatory’s Operational Regional Spectral Model (adapted from the Japan HKO’s numerical TC track forecast on the GTS Meteorological Agency) running at 60 km horizontal resolution, provides 6-hourly tropical cyclone positions In an effort to promote wider information sharing and intensities with a validity period up to 72 hours, among WMO members on tropical cyclone track whenever a tropical cyclone with intensity classified as forecasts, Hong Kong has started transmitting numeri- Tropical Depression or above is within the region 10- cal forecast products over the GTS for global 30N, 105-125E. It is issued twice daily, based on fore- casts at 00 and 12 UTC, respectively.

Page 6 TC Newsletter No. 17 Shanghai fellow Probability forecast of local tropical SWIC web site update completes HKO training cyclone signal changes With the approval of the Probability forecasts of local Commission for Basic Systems, the tropical cyclone (TC) signal changes, Severe Weather Information Center based on statistical and NWP (SWIC) web site (http:// techniques, were introduced and severe.worldweather.org) became communicated to public transport an operational component of the operators in Hong Kong for the first PWS Programme of WMO on time in 2004 on a trial basis. The March 23, 2005. The web site enhanced TC service facilitates homepage shows tropical cyclone operators’ planning for the suspen- positions and forecast tracks, with a sion and resumption of transport recap function to enable retrieval services in TC situations. of information for the past 7 days. Wang Dongliang during her attachment at HKO. The web site is being enhanced with severe weather information based on SYNOP reports. A new web ang Dongliang of Shanghai page showing locations of “Heavy W Rain/Snow” in the world was added Typhoon Institute completed a 2- in 2004. Hong Kong will continue month attachment program at the to operate and further develop Hong Kong Observatory under the SWIC on behalf of WMO. Typhoon Committee research fel- lowship scheme. Ms Wang conducted a research on assessment of the effects of tropical cyclone bo- gus data using different data A web-based tool for generating objective guidance in support of forecasters’ issuance of assimilation systems and bogussing probability forecast of TC signal changes. strategies. Through a suite of specially designed numerical experi- Special briefings on the use of ments and based on case studies of probability forecasts were provided selected tropical cyclones in 2002, to the users. The trial service was more realistic vortex structures were generally well received and would obtained and short-term track continue in 2005. Tropical cyclone display with the recap function forecasts were generally improved.

Aircraft AMDAR observation during Aere’s passage

The Hong Kong Observatory joined the WMO AMDAR (Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay) weather observation programme and started reception of AMDAR reports from local airlines in April 2004.

At the height of tropical storm Aere, on 26 August 2004, a local aircraft departed from the Hong Kong International Airport producing a vertical ascent up to 3,000 feet. AMDAR reports supplemented the conventional vertical sounding observations and provided much needed weather information over the data-sparse South China Sea.

Weather observations received from an aircraft departing Hong Kong at 1547 UTC on 26 April 2004 during the passage of Tropi- cal Storm Aere. (The symbol of Tropical Cyclone Aere indicates its location at 16 UTC 26 April 2004)

TC Newsletter No. 17 Page 7

Name a tropical cyclone contest held

A name a tropical cyclone contest, jointly organ- ized by the Hong Kong Observatory and Radio Television Hong Kong in April 2005, attracted more than 25,000 entries. The winning names, ‘Taichi’ and ‘Kopak’, will be submitted to the Typhoon Committee as replacement of two current names provided by Winners of name-a-TC-contest pose with the judges. Hong Kong, China.

MODIS images for tropical cyclone observation curving cloud lines In mid-2004, the Hong Kong Observatory started receiving HONG images from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer KONG (MODIS) on board NASA’s Earth Observing System series of satel- lites. With a high resolution of 250 m, MODIS images enable a closer view of the structure of tropical cyclones. KOMPASU

A true color image of Tropical Storm Kompasu on 15 July 2004, depicting vividly the subtle feature of low-level curving cloud lines which facilitate the determination of Kompasu’s circulation center is shown in right figure. High resolution true colour image captured by MODIS on 15 July 2004.

JAPAN significantly cools down SST and consequently suppresses typhoon development. This phenomenon is SST cooling reproduced by well simulated with high-resolution models. high-resolution coupled model A mixed-layer ocean model developed at MRI (Meteorological Research Institute) of JMA was coupled For accurate prediction of typhoon intensity, air- to the MRI/NPD (Numerical Prediction Division of JMA) sea interaction is a key factor to be incorporated into unified nonhydrostatic model with a horizontal resolu- numerical models since strong wind around typhoons tion of 6 km. Preliminary numerical experiments for the case of Typhoon Bilis (2000) reproduced success- fully SST cooling to the right of the typhoon movement.

Int’l training on typhoon monitoring and forecasting in the Western North Pacific

An international training seminar on typhoon Monitoring and forecasting in the Western North Pacific was held at the RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center, JMA from 17 February to 4 March 2005, in cooperation with Simulated SST field SST (shaded in the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport color), sea surface pressure Observed SST fieldSST (contoured (MLIT) and Japan Weather Association (JWA). (contoured in blue) and cloud water in color) estimated from TRMM (shaded in green) simulated by the TMI data. coupled model. The seminar, attended by four meteorologists from Cambodia, Laos, Micronesia and the Philippines, aimed

Page 8 TC Newsletter No. 17 broadcast company and electric power company.

Web site on numerical typhoon prediction launched

The RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center officially launched a web site on Numerical Typhoon Predic- Participants with JMA director-general Koichi tion (NTP) on October 1, 2004, Nagasaka (third from left). which provides NMHSs of tropical to share the latest knowledge and cyclone track prediction by major Track predictions of typhoon MINDULLE (0407) NWP centers for a better tropical and TING-TING (0408) at 00UTC, 2 July 2004 techniques on typhoon motoring on NTP website. and forecasting and to exchange cyclone forecasting and warning. views on the improvement of ty- (Republic of Korea), NCEP (USA), phoon warning operation between In response to the request of TC UKMO (UK) and JMA. rd forecasters from the National members at the 33 TC session, JMA Meteorological and Hydrological set up a preliminary website in In addition to forecast data, the Services (NMHSs) in the western September 2002. After further NTP web site has several useful North Pacific region. The partici- improvements, the website started functions such as deriving ensemble pants discussed typhoon analysis full operation on October 1, 2004 in mean data from any combination and forecasting and visited relevant cooperation with 8 NWP centers; of the predictions. It is also expected organizations responsible for disas- BOM (Australia), MSC (Canada), to help TC members improve disas- ter prevention and preparedness DWD (Germany), ECMWF, KMA ter prevention related to tropical including a local government, cyclones.

In the analysis for preparing initial conditions of fore- JMA global analysis and casts, pseudo observational data are assimilated around forecast system improved a typhoon together with other observational data. Fur- thermore, a vertically conservative semi-Lagrangian JMA upgraded the operational global analysis advection scheme with horizontal resolution of TL319 and forecast system in February 2005. A four- was introduced into the Global Spectral Model (GSM). dimensional variational (4D-Var) method was intro- duced into the global data assimilation system in place For the evaluation of the performance of the new of the previous 3D-Var method. Two kinds of typhoon system, data assimilation and forecast experiments were bogusing methods are adopted in the new system. For conducted in January and August 2004. The results the analysis in the assimilation cycle, bogus profiles are showed remarkable improvements in prediction of embedded in the first guess fields. tracks and center positions particularly at the later stage of the forecast time.

MTSAT-1R launched

he MTSAT-1R, successor to GMS-5, was launched ANL T NEW OLD into space on 26 February 2005, after separating suc- cessfully from the H-2A rocket 45 minutes after lift-off at the Tanegashima Space Center.

Predicted tracks of T0416 Mean positional error for eight ty- (CHABA) for analyzed best track The first test images in visible and infrared channels phoons in August 2004 by new system (ANL), new system (NEW) and old (circle) and by old system (triangle). were obtained on 24 March. MTSAT-1R is expected to system (OLD). The track predicted The mean positional error is reduced be fully operational in June 2005 after completing the by the old system shows southwest- by about 40 km in 60-hour forecasts. ward error. in-orbit test.

TC Newsletter No. 17 Page 9

MajorMajor eventsevents andand elapsedelapsed timetime fromfrom lift-offlift-off toto GeostationaryGeostationary EarthEarth OrbitOrbit injectioninjection

Geostationary Earth Orbit (Shift to In-orbit test) 10:42 March 8(Tue.) Added information on the satellite can be Geostationary Earth Orbit secured from the Office of Meteorological Satel-

Start deployment of reflector lite Planning, Japan Meteorological Agency, 00:07 February 27(Sun.) with website at: http://www.jma.go.jp/JMA_HP/ Satellite separation jma/jma-eng/satellite/index.html 19:05 February 26(Sat.) Start Apogee Motor Firing 1 20:30 February 27(Sun.) Start Apogee Motor Firing 3 10:35 March 4(Fri.) Start Apogee Motor Firing 2 13:40 March 1(Tue.)

Deploy Solar Sail Deploy Solar Array 5:23 March 6(Sun.) 6:07 March 5(Sat.)

Geostationary Transfer Orbit

Typhoon operational forecasting training at RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center

Two women forecasters from Hong Kong and Malaysia completed the Typhoon Operational Forecasting Training at RSMC Tokyo from 28 July to 6 August 2004. The on-the-job training focused on tropical cyclone analy- sis and forecasting using archived tropical cyclone data.

Another pair of forecasters from Macao and Singapore are set to undergo training on 20-29 July 2005.

The training has been conducted annually by JMA at RSMC Tokyo since 2001 based on an agreement with the Typhoon Committee. The objective of the training is to improve tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting abilities On-the-job training at RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center of forecasters from TC members.

physical Bureau of Macao (SMG) project lecture MACAO SAR commemorated the 2005 for high school World Meteorological Day promot- students in or- Commemoration ing the theme for this year, der to promote of WMD 2005 “Weather, Climate, Water and Sus- knowledge of tainable Development.” g e n e r a l science on A Mobile Web Weather Service meteorology Mobile phones was launched in answer to the grow- and geo- ing popularity of intellectual mobile physics, from 23 February to 29 phone and Personal Digital Assistant March 2005. Topics included Climate (PDA) and increase demand for Change, Earthquake and it's Effect, people to access meteorological in- Tropical Cyclone, Knowing Rain- formation on the web using these storm, and Air Pollution and Health. tools. With the new service, one could The lectures came in the heels of the access, anytime, anywhere, with catastrophic tsunami in the Indian SMG director Fong Soi Kun gives WMD remarks. mobile phone and PDA the web site Ocean on 26 December which arose (http://mobile.smg.gov.mo) for vital global attention on natural disasters. weather information. The Meteorological and Geo- A ceremony launching of the The SMG also conducted a publication "MMGB Collected Papers

Page 10 TC Newsletter No. 17 (Vol.1, English Version) --- Asia Sum- mer Monsoon and Mesoscale Numeri- The cal Simulation,” edited by SMG and meeting published by the China Meteorologi- was led cal Press, was held on March 14. The by TCLP publication was the result of research director work of SMG staff and may Prof. strengthen exchange of experience Lianshou between professionals from the area. Chen, who is The first part of the publication also the focused on the study of “Summer chairman Monsoon in Asia”, the second part on of CAS Participants in Int’l. Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes “Meso-scale Numerical Modelling,” Working while the third part consisted of Group on Tropical Meteorology Re- Tropical Cyclone Landfall that would extended abstracts of papers on search (WGTMR), and co-director apply advanced, high-resolution miscellaneous topics that had pre- Prof. Russell Elsberry, also the models of the type presented at the sented in various regional and inter- Rapporteur on Tropical Cyclones in workshop using special observational national seminars or conferences. WGTMR. sets from the field experiments, (2) Project on East Asian (tentatively The objectives of the TCLP work- proposed to be the Philippines) Inter- shop were to assess the state-of-the- national Program for a Forecast art of forecasting, impacts, and Demonstration Project on Tropical research; and develop a plan or Cyclone Landfall that would involve initiative to help improve tropical international cooperation in terms of cyclone landfall forecasts and new observational systems, advanced warnings. numerical model (including hydro- logical models) guidance, advanced The presentations at the forecaster workstations and training, workshop were from the tropical and a societal impacts demonstra- meteorology research community, tion, (3) East Asia Tropical Cyclone MMGB Collected Papers (Vol. 1) forecasting organizations, and risk Advanced Forecast Guidance Project assessment community and included: that would include a targeted obser- (1) TC landfall forecast status and vation field experiment, an advanced Int’l Workshop on Tropical needs; (2) Impacts of TC landfall; (3) data assimilation technique, and a Cyclone Landfall Processes Structure/intensity change observa- combination of ensemble prediction tions including field programs and systems from multiple countries, and modeling; and (4) Opportunities and (4) Pacific THORPEX Regional Cam- he first meeting of the WMO T planning for the future. In addition paign on Extra tropical Transition International Workshop on Tropical to verbal presentations, a poster Linked with the Inter-national Polar Cyclone Landfall Processes (TCLP) session provided opportunities for Year in 2008, which would include was held in Macao, China, on 21-25 discussion during the meeting. model inter comparisons, adaptive March 2005 which brought together observing strategies, and data assimi- researchers and forecasters for discus- The participants recommended lation that would lead to new con- sion on forecasting needs and four project proposals: (1) Model ceptual models and forecast/warning scientific issues related to tropical Inter-comparison for Prediction of products for extra tropical transition cyclone landfall.

Assessment of Typhoon-related Disasters was held in MALAYSIA Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from 5 to 9 September 2005. The workshop was jointly organized by the Typhoon Kuala Lumpur hosts workshop on Committee Secretariat and the Department of Irrigation risk management and impact assessment of and Drainage of Malaysia in cooperation with ESCAP; the typhoon-related disasters Ministry of Construction and Transportation (MOCT) and Institute of Construction Technology (KICT) of Korea; and the he Workshop on Risk Management towards Millen- Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) and T Infrastructure Development Institute (IDI) of Japan. nium Development Goals and Socio-Economic Impact

TC Newsletter No. 17 Page 11 The participants reviewed the progress in the develop- ment of flood hazard maps and the establishment of flash flood and sediment disaster forecasting and warnings systems in pilot areas of interested members. Priority needs in boosting the use of multi-hazard early warning systems were also identified in line with the need for an early tsunami warning system in the region and for a more effective mobilization of resources for the Commit- tee’s activities. Participants in Kuala Lumpur workshop. The workshop recommended to support the participa- The workshop aimed to share information on the tion of representatives of TC members at the 4th assessment of socio-economic impact of typhoon disasters World Water Forum to be held in Mexico City, Mexico and risk management towards development goals in new (16-22 March 2006), including organization of a session millennium, and on improvement of the framework for under the theme “Coping with Risks” or “Integrated living with risk, including institutional mechanisms and Water Resources Management.” practices for a safer world.

“Preparedness Plan for Natural THAILAND Disasters in Chantaburi Province” presented an attempt to establish advanced public warnings on natural TMD marks 63rd year disasters (particularly for downhill overflows, mudslides, flash floods, and The Thai Meteorological Depart- riverbank overflows) carried out since ment (TMD) commemorated its 63rd the huge losses from a downhill over- anniversary with the holding of its flow on July 30, 1999. This measure, first academic seminar on 23 June based on the integration between 2005 attended by 150 staffs and rainfall data bank and the knowl- viewed on the Internet for those on Slide presentation of the topic on virtual wave. edge of local topography as well as duty throughout the country. the discharge rates within the rain- which demonstrated how virtual fed areas, will help save lives and ocean waves could be simulated TMD deputy director-general properties. from wind-wave spectrum as well as The academic seminar which was Chalermchai Eg-Kantrong, in his the effect of the 10 meters wind field opening message, emphasized the over ocean surface to reflect the significance of academic research as a statistical characteristics of the real crucial factor for the Department’s ocean. They looked so real that they continuous progress. could be widely used in the Virtual Reality applications.

In Dr. Kanbua’s “Wave Hindcast by Using Parametic Model and Neural Network Model”, three para- metric models (RBT, SMB, TMA) and one neural network had been used to S. Kumpuangdee produce wave height and wave extended for two days, may likely be period once the bottom topography offered free to staffs of other con- of the Gulf of Thailand, the waves cerned government agencies, college data, and the winds data were input. C. Eg-Kantrong students and the public to join in It was found that among 4 models, The seminar presented 19 aca- 2006. Interested meteorological the neural network model gave the demic research topics, including three researchers from other members of lowest error suitable in warning subjects relevant to typhoons. the Typhoon Committee may also system in both navigation and “Virtual Wave: an Algorithm for present their works at the academic coastal engineering. Virtualization of Ocean Wave Fore- seminar in the future. cast in the Gulf of Thailand” was presented by Dr. Wattana Kanbua Mr. Sompol Kumpuangdee’s

Page 12 TC Newsletter No. 17 REPUBLIC OF KOREA is expected to enhance KMA's forecasting capability on dust/sand storms from China. Oceanic Meteorological Observation Complex in Yellow Sea starts operation

The Oceanic Meteorological Observation Complex site on Bukgyegryelbi-Do (island), located in the western extremity of Korean peninsula, has been put to full operation in April 2005.

View of observation instruments (clockwise), wave radar, wind pro-

filer, PM 10 and AOOS.

The Seo-san weather station which is the nearest office in Chung-nam province is in charge of mainte- nance of the site and monitoring real-time data traffic Location and view of the site through remote monitoring system.

The unmanned observation site, construction of which started in 2003, is equipped with various meteorological instruments such as Automatic Oceanic Observation System (AOOS), Wave Radar and PM10. In addition, a wind profiler will be installed in 2006.

Receiving real-time data from the site through satel- lite telecommunications (Vsat-8), of the Korea Meteoro- logical Administration (KMA) is able to detect severe weather conditions from the West at earliest time possible. In particular, the Yellow Sea observation system Observation data from each instrument (AOOS , Wave Radar, and PM10)

C r a y X 1 E KMA’s Cray X1E supercomputer super-computer to be installed combines the p r o c e s s o r The KMA performance of has purchased traditional vector Cray X1E as the systems with the second super- scalability of computer to micro-processor- replace the old b a s e d NECSX- a r c h i t e c t u r e s . 5/28M2. The High performance System configuration first phase of interconnect and installment of memory subsystems allow Cray X1E system to scale from the system was 16 to 8,192 processors. The maximum performance of this Cray X1E in KIDC m a d e i n system was proved to be ninety times faster than previous August 2004. system in operation since 1999. Cray X1E will be a great Cray X1E will be installed in Korea Internet Data Center asset to help establish the infrastructure for digital (KIDC) to ensure more reliable maintenance and efficient weather forecasting service. At present, KMA is making a operation. provision for digital weather forecast service in 2006.

TC Newsletter No. 17 Page 13 CHINA cyclone-related disasters through warnings of tropical cyclones - close collaboration of the Typhoon Lessons learnt from the Kobe World Regional Workshop on Committee components on meteor- Conference on Disaster Reduction” ology, hydrology, and disaster was made by WMO representative Effective Tropical Cyclone Warning prevention and preparedness. Katsuhiro Abe.

The Shanghai Meteorological A companion seminar was also Other topics presented were Bureau hosted the Regional Work- held on ensemble prediction system forecast accuracy and reliability; shop on Effective Tropical Cyclone for RA II and RA V to provide theo- meteorological, hydrological and Warning on 24-28 April 2005 with retical framework on risk DPP perspectives; impact and participants presenting scientific management amid uncertainty. vulnerability analyses; warning dis- papers focusing on research institu- semination and presentation; and tional development of effective A special lecture on “Reducing public education and promotion. warning to mitigate tropical risks through effective early

USA Invited resource persons, which include experts on flash flood forecasting from Asia, particularly, Japan, will Int’l workshop on flash flood forecasting set present current methods and approaches, as well as emerging technologies in flash flood forecasting by The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini- different regions. Other topics include meteorological and stration’s National Weather Service, in collaboration with hydrological methods of observation and forecasting tools the World Meteorological Organization, is organizing an in support of flash flood forecasting. International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting, to be Participants will pinpoint the weak links in establish- held in San Jose, Costa Rica, on 13-17 March 2006. ing end-to-end operational flash flood warning systems

The workshop aims to provide information on the and how to fill these gaps. They will also identify steps to types of flash flood prediction capabilities available for be taken to promote proven science and technology in application in flash flood-prone regions in developing developing countries.

countries. The main focus will be on how to deliver Meanwhile, NOAA/NWS hosted the Workshop on adequate lead-time and accuracy in forecasts to produce Hurricane Forecasting and Warning, and Public Weather life and property saving actions to mitigate flash flood Services held in Miami, Florida, USA, on 11-23 April 2005. losses. Five experts from the members of the Typhoon Commit-

The Typhoon Committee Newsletter is published in English by the Typhoon Committee Secretariat (TCS).

Interim Secretary: Dr. Roman L. Kintanar

4/F PAGASA Office Bldg., Science Garden, Agham Road, Diliman, Quezon City 1001, PHILIPPINES Telefax: (632) 4349026 E-mail: [email protected] Website: tcsphilippines.org

The Newsletter is available on request to the Editor or Secretary at the above address.

Editor: Martin F. Rellin, Jr. Assistant Editor: Hannibal B. Marayag Staff: 37th SESSION PHOTOS (Top, from left) Mr Hu Yan Zhao, Shanghai Deputy-Mayor; Dr Qin Dahe, CMA Administrator; Mr Eisa H. Bella U. Mendoza Al-Majed, WMO representative; and Mr. Le-Huu Ti, ESCAP representative, deliver their opening remarks. (Above) Delegates to Rosemarie Z. Anillo the thirty seventh session of TC pose for posterity. Roman O. Mendoza Page 14 TC Newsletter No. 17