Mesoscale Processes for Super Heavy Rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009) Over Southern Taiwan

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Mesoscale Processes for Super Heavy Rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009) Over Southern Taiwan Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 345–361, 2011 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/345/2011/ Atmospheric doi:10.5194/acp-11-345-2011 Chemistry © Author(s) 2011. CC Attribution 3.0 License. and Physics Mesoscale processes for super heavy rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009) over Southern Taiwan C.-Y. Lin1, H.-m. Hsu2, Y.-F. Sheng1, C.-H. Kuo3, and Y.-A. Liou4 1Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan 2National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA 3Department of Geology, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan 4Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, Jhongli, Taiwan Received: 20 April 2010 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 27 May 2010 Revised: 10 December 2010 – Accepted: 29 December 2010 – Published: 14 January 2011 Abstract. Within 100 h, a record-breaking rainfall, typhoon Morakot (2009) traversed the island of Taiwan over 2855 mm, was brought to Taiwan by typhoon Morakot in Au- 5 days (6–10 August 2009). It was the heaviest total rain- gust 2009 resulting in devastating landslides and casualties. fall for a single typhoon impinging upon the island ever Analyses and simulations show that under favorable large- recorded. This typhoon has set many new records in Tai- scale situations, this unprecedented precipitation was caused wan. Nine of the ten highest daily rainfall accumulations first by the convergence of the southerly component of the in the historical record were made by typhoon Morakot, ac- pre-existing strong southwesterly monsoonal flow and the cording to the Central Weather Bureau (CWB). Among them, northerly component of the typhoon circulation. Then the Wei-Liou San station (elevation about 710 m in Southern Tai- westerly component of southwesterly flow pushed the highly wan; 22.82◦ N and 120.66◦ E) recorded as high as 1403 mm moist air (mean specific humidity >16 g/kg between 950 and rainfall in one day, 8 August. Table 1 provides a list of 700 hPa from NCEP GFS data set) eastward against the Cen- the 10 highest rainfall accumulations by typhoons during the tral Mountain Range, and forced it to lift in the preferred last 50 years in which two types of typhoon passages were area. From the fine-scale numerical simulation, not only did characterized. One traverses the Central Mountain Range the convergence itself provide the source of the heavy rain- (CMR), the primary island mountain, in the summer (June fall when it interacted with the topography, but also convec- to August), and the other one passes nearby the island with tive cells existed within the typhoon’s main rainband. The northeasterly monsoon flow in the fall (September to Novem- convective cells were in the form of small rainbands perpen- ber). Morakot is the first typhoon simultaneously accompa- dicular to the main one, and propagated as wave trains down- nied with a strong southwesterly monsoon and it generated wind. As the main rainband moved northward and reached 2 to 3 times more mean daily rainfall than the nine other the southern CMR, convective cells inside the narrow conver- strongest typhoons during the last 50 years (Table 1). Ty- gence zone to the south and those to the north as wave trains, phoon Morakot also was responsible for a vast area, over the both rained heavily as they were lifted by the west-facing western hilly regions of the Central Mountain Range, receiv- mountain slopes. Those mesoscale processes were responsi- ing more than the one year average precipitation (2000 mm) ble for the unprecedented heavy rainfall total that accompa- in just 3 days (7–9 August). nied this typhoon. This unprecedented rainfall accumulation and area cov- ered are bound to cause disasters. In just three days, there were enormous landslides triggered in mountainous terrain 1 Introduction and severe flooding blanketed large areas of lowlands. One particular landslide occurred in the early morning on 9 Au- Over 2885 mm (112.4 inches) rainfall in 100 h, much more gust, burying the entire village of Xiaolin (elevation around than the mean annual precipitation, was recorded at A-Li 345 m located at valley, 120.65◦ E and 23.17◦ N, in Kaohs- Shan station (23.5◦ N and 120.8◦ E, 2413 m in elevation) as ing county in Southern Taiwan), killing more than 600 peo- ple in this village alone. The area damaged by the land- slides, estimated by satellite FORMOSAT-2 (http://www. Correspondence to: C.-Y. Lin satimagingcorp.com/satellite-sensors/formosat-2.html), was ([email protected]) 241.7 acres. The village of Xiaolin with nearly 394 houses Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 426 stations of rain gauge (m) a) 25N 24N 23N 346 C.-Y. Lin et al.: Mesoscale22N processes for super heavy rainfall of Typhoon Morakot 426 stations of rain gauge 120E 121E 122E 123E (m) a) 25N ZonalTrack Mean of Typhoon (120~121) Morakot of OBS Precipitation (mm/hr) 35N b) 25N c) 24N 30N N 24N 25N C 23N 23N 20N S 22N 22N 15N 120E 121E 122E 123E 115E 2Aug 120E 3Aug 125E 4Aug 5Aug 130E 6Aug 135E7Aug 8Aug 140E 9Aug 10Aug 11Aug Figure 1 Track of Typhoon Morakot 35N 96 hrs observation rainfall (mm) b) Zonal Mean (120~121) of OBS Precipitation (mm/hr) 25N d) 30N 25N c) N 24N 25N 24N C 23N 20N 23N S 22N 22N 15N 115E 120E 125E 130E 135E 140E Figure 1 2Aug 3Aug 4Aug 5Aug 6Aug 7Aug 8Aug 9Aug 10Aug 11Aug 119E 120E 121E 122E 123E 96 hrs observation rainfall (mm) Figure 1 continued Fig. 1. (a) Spatial distribution of the 426 rain gage stations monitoring network (red dots) and topographic elevation over Taiwan. The black dashed rectangle is25N the area for which rainfall is displayed in (c) . (b) The best track for Typhoon Morakot41 (2009). Colored solid (open) typhoon symbol indicatesd) the best track and the intensity of typhoon at 6-h intervals. (c) Spatial and temporal variations of the average rainfall in 0.1 deg latitude increments between 120 and 121◦ E over western Taiwan (d) 96-h rainfall accumulation from 00:00 UTC 06 to 00:00 UTC 10 August 2009. 24N and the nearby woodland were covered by mud completely. N–S (Fig. 1a) with an average terrain height of about 2000 m 23N Roughly NT$16.4 billion (∼US$ 0.5 billion) in agricultural (Chen and Li, 1995; Lin and Chen, 2002) and a few steep damage alone has been estimated over Taiwan because of peaks of almost 4 km. It is well known that damages are this tragic event. The official estimate of all the damage strongly related to the location of the typhoon’s landfall and 22N and reconstruction costs is beyond NT$ 100 billion (∼US$ interactions between its circulation and the CMR (Brand and 3.03billion). Blelloch 1974; Wu and Kurihara, 1996; Wu and Kuo, 1999; 119E 120E 121E 122E 123E Lin et al., 2001; Chien et al., 2008; Ge et al., 2010). Pre- As typhoons pass over the island of Taiwan and its Figure 1 continued vious studies pointed out that enormous amounts of rainfall vicinity, the local rainfall is strongly affected by the is- occur and are enhanced due to mountain lifting when a ty- land mountains, particularly the Central41 Mountain Range phoon passes over the CMR (Wu and Kuo, 1999; Lin et al., (CMR). The CMR occupies about two-thirds of Taiwan’s 2001, 2002; Wu et al., 2002; Yang et al., 2008). Moreover, it land mass (300 km · 100 km), and is oriented approximately Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 345–361, 2011 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/345/2011/ C.-Y. Lin et al.: Mesoscale processes for super heavy rainfall of Typhoon Morakot 347 Table 1. Record of the 10 highest typhoon rainfall accumulations during the last 50 years. Stations’ elevation for A-Li station, An Pu and Chu Tze Hu are 2413 m, 826 m and 607 m, respectively (TC: Tropical Cyclone, NE: Northeasterly, SW: southwesterly). Typhoon name Intensity classification* Accumulation rainfall Casualties including (CWB warning period) Characteristics in mm (duration) station Death and missing MORAKOT Intermediate 2855 mm (100 h) 695 5–10 August 2009 TC Traversing CMR+ SW A-Li Shan monsoon FLOSSIE Intermediate 2162 mm (120 h) 105 1–7 October 1969 TC nearby + NE monsoon An Pu HERB Strong 1987 mm (48 h) 73 29 July–1 August 1996 TC Traversing CMR A-Li Shan LYNN Strong 1497 mm (96 h) 63 23–27 October 1987 TC nearby + NE monsoon Chu Tze Hu SINLAKU Strong 1458 mm (96 h) 21 9–17 September 2008 TC Traversing CMR A-Li Shan ORA Intermediate 1434 mm (96 h) 7 11–14 October 1978 TC nearby + NE monsoon Chu Tze Hu GLORIA Strong 1433 mm (96 h) 363 8–13 September 1963 TC nearby + NE monsoon A-Li Shan NARI Intermediate 1304 mm (72 h) 104 6–20 September 2001 TC Traversing CMR Chu Tze Hu HAITANG Strong 1216 mm (72 h) 15 16–20 July 2005 TC Traversing CMR A-Li Shan MINDULLE Intermediate 1182 mm (72 h) 45 28 June–2 July 2004 TC Traversing CMR A-Li Shan * The CWB’s classification of typhoons is based on the maximum wind speed: the light typhoon: 17.2∼32.6 m/s; the intermediate typhoon: 32.7∼50.9 m/s; the severe typhoon: =51 m/s is common that the strong southwesterly flow follows the de- processes was responsible for the unprecedented heavy rain- parture of an invading typhoon and brings heavy rainfall over fall. In fact, this combination of processes can be revealed central or Southern Taiwan (Lee et al., 2008; Chien et al., in large-scale meteorological analysis data when analyzed in 2008).
Recommended publications
  • Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR Sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ Updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET
    Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET Summary Report Ongoing typhoon situation The storm had lost strength early Tuesday July 8, going from the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane to a Category 3 on the Saffir‐Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which means devastating damage is expected to occur, with major damage to well‐built framed homes, snapped or uprooted trees and power outages. It is approaching Okinawa, Japan, and is moving northwest towards South Korea and the Philippines, bringing strong winds, flooding rainfall and inundating storm surge. Typhoon Neoguri is a once‐in‐a‐decade storm and Japanese authorities have extended their highest storm alert to Okinawa's main island. The Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2013 ranked Japan as first among countries in the world for both annual and maximum potential losses due to cyclones. It is calculated that Japan loses on average up to $45.9 Billion due to cyclonic winds every year and that it can lose a probable maximum loss of $547 Billion.2 What are the most devastating cyclones to hit Okinawa in recent memory? There have been 12 damaging cyclones to hit Okinawa since 1945. Sustaining winds of 81.6 knots (151 kph), Typhoon “Winnie” caused damages of $5.8 million in August 1997. Typhoon "Bart", which hit Okinawa in October 1999 caused damages of $5.7 million. It sustained winds of 126 knots (233 kph). The most damaging cyclone to hit Japan was Super Typhoon Nida (reaching a peak intensity of 260 kph), which struck Japan in 2004 killing 287 affecting 329,556 people injuring 1,483, and causing damages amounting to $15 Billion.
    [Show full text]
  • Appendix 8: Damages Caused by Natural Disasters
    Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Draft Finnal Report APPENDIX 8: DAMAGES CAUSED BY NATURAL DISASTERS A8.1 Flood & Typhoon Table A8.1.1 Record of Flood & Typhoon (Cambodia) Place Date Damage Cambodia Flood Aug 1999 The flash floods, triggered by torrential rains during the first week of August, caused significant damage in the provinces of Sihanoukville, Koh Kong and Kam Pot. As of 10 August, four people were killed, some 8,000 people were left homeless, and 200 meters of railroads were washed away. More than 12,000 hectares of rice paddies were flooded in Kam Pot province alone. Floods Nov 1999 Continued torrential rains during October and early November caused flash floods and affected five southern provinces: Takeo, Kandal, Kampong Speu, Phnom Penh Municipality and Pursat. The report indicates that the floods affected 21,334 families and around 9,900 ha of rice field. IFRC's situation report dated 9 November stated that 3,561 houses are damaged/destroyed. So far, there has been no report of casualties. Flood Aug 2000 The second floods has caused serious damages on provinces in the North, the East and the South, especially in Takeo Province. Three provinces along Mekong River (Stung Treng, Kratie and Kompong Cham) and Municipality of Phnom Penh have declared the state of emergency. 121,000 families have been affected, more than 170 people were killed, and some $10 million in rice crops has been destroyed. Immediate needs include food, shelter, and the repair or replacement of homes, household items, and sanitation facilities as water levels in the Delta continue to fall.
    [Show full text]
  • Dependence of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Performance on Typhoon Characteristics and Forecast Track Error in Taiwan
    APRIL 2020 T E N G E T A L . 585 Dependence of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Performance on Typhoon Characteristics and Forecast Track Error in Taiwan HSU-FENG TENG AND JAMES M. DONE National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado CHENG-SHANG LEE Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan YING-HWA KUO National Center for Atmospheric Research, and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (Manuscript received 15 August 2019, in final form 7 January 2020) ABSTRACT This study investigates the probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) performance of ty- phoons that affected Taiwan during 2011–16. In this period, a total of 19 typhoons with a land warning issued by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) are analyzed. The PQPF is calculated using the ensemble precipi- tation forecast data from the Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment (TAPEX), and the verification data, verification thresholds, and typhoon characteristics are obtained from the CWB. The overall PQPF performance of TAPEX has an acceptable reliability and discrimination ability, and the higher probability error is distributed at the mountainous area of Taiwan. The PQPF performance is significantly influenced by typhoon characteristics (e.g., typhoon tracks, sizes, and forward speeds). The PQPFs for westward-moving, large, or slow typhoons have higher reliability and discrimination ability, and lower- probability error than those for northward-moving, small, or fast typhoons, except for similar reliability between fast and slow typhoons. Because northward-moving or small typhoons have larger forecast track error, and their PQPF performance is sensitive to the accuracy of the forecast track, a higher probability error occurs than that for westward-moving or large typhoons.
    [Show full text]
  • North Pacific, on August 31
    Marine Weather Review MARINE WEATHER REVIEW – NORTH PACIFIC AREA May to August 2002 George Bancroft Meteorologist Marine Prediction Center Introduction near 18N 139E at 1200 UTC May 18. Typhoon Chataan: Chataan appeared Maximum sustained winds increased on MPC’s oceanic chart area just Low-pressure systems often tracked from 65 kt to 120 kt in the 24-hour south of Japan at 0600 UTC July 10 from southwest to northeast during period ending at 0000 UTC May 19, with maximum sustained winds of 65 the period, while high pressure when th center reached 17.7N 140.5E. kt with gusts to 80 kt. Six hours later, prevailed off the west coast of the The system was briefly a super- the Tenaga Dua (9MSM) near 34N U.S. Occasionally the high pressure typhoon (maximum sustained winds 140E reported south winds of 65 kt. extended into the Bering Sea and Gulf of 130 kt or higher) from 0600 to By 1800 UTC July 10, Chataan of Alaska, forcing cyclonic systems 1800 UTC May 19. At 1800 UTC weakened to a tropical storm near coming off Japan or eastern Russia to May 19 Hagibis attained a maximum 35.7N 140.9E. The CSX Defender turn more north or northwest or even strength of 140-kt (sustained winds), (KGJB) at that time encountered stall. Several non-tropical lows with gusts to 170 kt near 20.7N southwest winds of 55 kt and 17- developed storm-force winds, mainly 143.2E before beginning to weaken. meter seas (56 feet). The system in May and June.
    [Show full text]
  • Third Assessment on Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region E Part I: Observed Changes, Detection and Attribution
    Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 9 (2020) 1e22 www.keaipublishing.com/tcrr Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region e Part I: Observed changes, detection and attribution Tsz-Cheung Lee a,*, Thomas R. Knutson b, Toshiyuki Nakaegawa c, Ming Ying d, Eun Jeong Cha e a Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China b Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA c Meteorological Research Institute/Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan d Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China e National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju, Republic of Korea Available online 20 March 2020 Abstract Published findings on climate change impacts on tropical cyclones (TCs) in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region are assessed. We focus on observed TC changes in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin, including frequency, intensity, precipitation, track pattern, and storm surge. Results from an updated survey of impacts of past TC activity on various Members of the Typhoon Committee are also reported. Existing TC datasets continue to show substantial interdecadal variations in basin-wide TC frequency and intensity in the WNP. There has been encouraging progress in improving the consensus between different datasets concerning intensity trends. A statistically significant northwest- ward shift in WNP TC tracks since the 1980s has been documented. There is low-to-medium confidence in a detectable poleward shift since the 1940s in the average latitude where TCs reach their peak intensity in the WNP. A worsening of storm inundation levels is believed to be occurring due to sea level rise-due in part to anthropogenic influence-assuming all other factors equal.
    [Show full text]
  • Understanding Disaster Risk ~ Lessons from 2009 Typhoon Morakot, Southern Taiwan
    Understanding disaster risk ~ Lessons from 2009 Typhoon Morakot, Southern Taiwan Wen–Chi Lai, Chjeng-Lun Shieh Disaster Prevention Research Center, National Cheng-Kung University 1. Introduction 08/10 Rainfall 08/07 Rainfall started & stopped gradually typhoon speed decrease rapidly 08/06 Typhoon Warning for Inland 08/03 Typhoon 08/05 Typhoon Morakot warning for formed territorial sea 08/08 00:00 Heavy rainfall started 08/08 12:00 ~24:00 Rainfall center moved to south Taiwan, which triggered serious geo-hazards and floodings Data from “http://weather.unisys.com/” 1. Introduction There 4 days before the typhoon landing and forecasting as weakly one for norther Taiwan. Emergency headquarters all located in Taipei and few raining around the landing area. The induced strong rainfalls after typhoon leaving around southern Taiwan until Aug. 10. The damages out of experiences crush the operation system, made serious impacts. Path of the center of Typhoon Morakot 1. Introduction Largest precipitation was 2,884 mm Long duration (91 hours) Hard to collect the information High intensity (123 mm/hour) Large depth (3,000 mm-91 hour) Broad extent (1/4 of Taiwan) The scale and type of the disaster increasing with the frequent appearance of extreme weather Large-scale landslide and compound disaster become a new challenge • Area:202 ha Depth:84 meter Volume: 24 million m3 2.1 Root Cause and disaster risk drivers 3000 Landslide Landslide (Shallow, Soil) (Deep, Bedrock) Landslide dam break Flood Debris flow Landslide dam form Alisan Station ) 2000
    [Show full text]
  • Analysis of Gravity-Waves Produced by Intense Tropical Cyclones
    Ann. Geophys., 28, 531–547, 2010 www.ann-geophys.net/28/531/2010/ Annales © Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under Geophysicae the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Analysis of gravity-waves produced by intense tropical cyclones F. Chane Ming1, Z. Chen2, and F. Roux3 1Laboratoire de l’Atmosphere` et des Cyclones, UMR 8105, CNRS-Met´ eo-France,´ Universite´ de la Reunion,´ La Reunion,´ France 2Institute of Atmospheric Physics – Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China 3Laboratoire d’Aerologie,´ UMR CNRS – Universite´ Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France Received: 19 June 2009 – Revised: 27 January 2010 – Accepted: 31 January 2010 – Published: 15 February 2010 Abstract. Conventional and wavelet methods are combined sphere (Sato, 1993; Pfister et al., 1993; Danielsen, 1993; to characterize gravity-waves (GWs) produced by two in- Dhaka et al., 2003; Cairo et al., 2008). Chane Ming et tense tropical cyclones (TCs) in the upper troposphere and al. (2002) showed that such GWs can be characterized using lower stratosphere (UT/LS) from GPS winsonde data. Anal- high resolution daily radiosonde data in the UT/LS within yses reveal large contribution of GWs induced by TCs to a radius of about 2000 km above the radiosonde station. For wave energy densities in the UT/LS. An increase in total instance, significant release of GW energy was observed dur- energy density of about 30% of the climatological energy ing landfalls of TC Hudah over Madagascar and Mozam- density in austral summer was estimated in the LS above bique. Observations of GWs also appear to be common in Tromelin during TC Dina.
    [Show full text]
  • On the Extreme Rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009)
    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 116, D05104, doi:10.1029/2010JD015092, 2011 On the extreme rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009) Fang‐Ching Chien1 and Hung‐Chi Kuo2 Received 21 September 2010; revised 17 December 2010; accepted 4 January 2011; published 4 March 2011. [1] Typhoon Morakot (2009), a devastating tropical cyclone (TC) that made landfall in Taiwan from 7 to 9 August 2009, produced the highest recorded rainfall in southern Taiwan in the past 50 years. This study examines the factors that contributed to the heavy rainfall. It is found that the amount of rainfall in Taiwan was nearly proportional to the reciprocal of TC translation speed rather than the TC intensity. Morakot’s landfall on Taiwan occurred concurrently with the cyclonic phase of the intraseasonal oscillation, which enhanced the background southwesterly monsoonal flow. The extreme rainfall was caused by the very slow movement of Morakot both in the landfall and in the postlandfall periods and the continuous formation of mesoscale convection with the moisture supply from the southwesterly flow. A composite study of 19 TCs with similar track to Morakot shows that the uniquely slow translation speed of Morakot was closely related to the northwestward‐extending Pacific subtropical high (PSH) and the broad low‐pressure systems (associated with Typhoon Etau and Typhoon Goni) surrounding Morakot. Specifically, it was caused by the weakening steering flow at high levels that primarily resulted from the weakening PSH, an approaching short‐wave trough, and the northwestward‐tilting Etau. After TC landfall, the circulation of Goni merged with the southwesterly flow, resulting in a moisture conveyer belt that transported moisture‐laden air toward the east‐northeast.
    [Show full text]
  • Improving WRF Typhoon Precipitation and Intensity Simulation Using a Surrogate-Based Automatic Parameter Optimization Method
    atmosphere Article Improving WRF Typhoon Precipitation and Intensity Simulation Using a Surrogate-Based Automatic Parameter Optimization Method Zhenhua Di 1,2,* , Qingyun Duan 3 , Chenwei Shen 1 and Zhenghui Xie 2 1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; [email protected] 2 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; [email protected] 3 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-10-5880-0217 Received: 7 December 2019; Accepted: 8 January 2020; Published: 10 January 2020 Abstract: Typhoon precipitation and intensity forecasting plays an important role in disaster prevention and mitigation in the typhoon landfall area. However, the issue of improving forecast accuracy is very challenging. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model typhoon simulations on precipitation and central 10-m maximum wind speed (10-m wind) were improved using a systematic parameter optimization framework consisting of parameter screening and adaptive surrogate modeling-based optimization (ASMO) for screening sensitive parameters. Six of the 25 adjustable parameters from seven physics components of the WRF model were screened by the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) parameter sensitivity analysis tool. Then the six parameters were optimized using the ASMO method, and after 178 runs, the 6-hourly precipitation, and 10-m wind simulations were finally improved by 6.83% and 13.64% respectively.
    [Show full text]
  • The Air Typhoon Model for South Korea
    Every year about 30 tropical cyclones The AIR Typhoon develop in the Northwest Pacific Basin. On average, at least one Model for makes landfall in South Korea. Others pass close enough offshore to cause wind damage and coastal and inland South Korea flooding. As the value and number of properties in South Korea’s risk-prone areas increase every year, insurers need tools that can accurately assess and help manage this changing risk. THE AIR TYPHOON MODEL FOR SOUTH KOREA The AIR Typhoon Model for South Korea—part of AIR’s Northwest Pacific Basinwide Typhoon Model— provides a fully probabilistic approach for determining the likelihood that Central Pressure (mb) losses will result from typhoon winds <= 920 921 - 945 946 - 960 961 - 980 and precipitation-induced flooding. 981 - 1000 > 1000 The model incorporates the current The majority of storms during the 2012 Northwest understanding of tropical cyclone Pacific typhoon season impacted more than one activity in this basin and the latest country. A COMPREHENSIVE engineering research concerning the APPROACH TO ASSESSING response of local construction to REGIONAL RISK Insurers and reinsurers who operate globally damaging winds and precipitation. need to be able to quantify catastrophe risk Model results are validated using to policies and portfolios that span multiple countries—especially in the Northwest Pacific extensive loss experience data— basin, where more than half of all landfalling including data from two of South typhoons affect more than one country. Korea’s strongest historical typhoons, To provide a consistent and comprehensive Maemi and Rusa—that represent about view of risk to companies that have regional portfolios, AIR has developed a unified 25% of the market.
    [Show full text]
  • TROPICAL CYCLONES a Briefing for Mariners
    TROPICAL CYCLONES a briefing for mariners Rev. 2.3 Hurricane “Katrina” gearing up in the Gulf of Mexico, 2005 INTRO In recent years, within the JDN - Group, two ships were wrecked in tropical cyclones. CSD Kaerius was declared total-loss due to a hurricane in the Caribbean, and TSHD Cristoforo Colombo – in 2004 – in the aftermath of a typhoon reaching as far north as Sachalin island, eastern Siberia. M/V Pompei was trapped in a typhoon in South China Sea early 2006, but survived against all odds. The past seven years, TSHD “Gerardus Mercator” has been assigned jobs in Taiwan, Korea and Sachalin, crossed South China Sea numerous times, in world’s most dangerous region for tropical cyclones. I remember our first typhoon, “Rusa”, in South-Korea, september 2002. Hundreds of ships packed tightly together in Chinhae anchorage, all surrounded by hills – a “safe” place. Still: it was awesome, huge; the massive buildup of wind hour after hour. Two ships dragged anchor, collided in front of “Mercator” One of them (a large trawler “Shin An Ho”) capsized in ten minutes flat; fifteen crewmembers in the water. Crew of “Mercator” -all hands on deck- managed to get five seamen out of the water, in windgusts of 150 km/h. Fig. 1: Trawler “Shin An Ho” capsizing during typhoon “Rusa”, september 2002. Tropical cyclones – update Marc Van de velde 2 Later on that day windgusts went up to 200 km/h. Since that day the idea got to my mind that I’d better know something about these typhoons. “Gerardus” was anchored next to “Cristoforo Colombo” when typhoon “Songda” struck and beached “Cristoforo”, september 2004 (see chapter 5).
    [Show full text]
  • Indigenous Knowledge and Endogenous Actions for Building Tribal Resilience After Typhoon Soudelor in Northern Taiwan
    sustainability Article Indigenous Knowledge and Endogenous Actions for Building Tribal Resilience after Typhoon Soudelor in Northern Taiwan Su-Hsin Lee 1 and Yin-Jen Chen 2,* 1 Department of Geography, National Taiwan Normal University, 162, Section 1, Heping E. Rd., Taipei City 10610, Taiwan; [email protected] 2 Graduate Institute of Earth Science, Chinese Culture University, 55, Hwa-Kang Road, Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei City 11114, Taiwan * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: Indigenous peoples often face significant vulnerabilities to climate risks, yet the capacity of a social-ecological system (SES) to resilience is abstracted from indigenous and local knowledge. This research explored how the Tayal people in the Wulai tribes located in typhoon disaster areas along Nanshi River used indigenous knowledge as tribal resilience. It applied empirical analysis from secondary data on disaster relief and in-depth interviews, demonstrating how indigenous people’s endogenous actions helped during post-disaster reconstructing. With the intertwined concepts of indigenous knowledge, SESs, and tribes’ cooperation, the result presented the endogenous actions for tribal resilience. In addition, indigenous knowledge is instigated by the Qutux Niqan of mutual assistance and symbiosis among the Wulai tribes, and there is a need to build joint cooperation through local residence, indigenous people living outside of their tribes, and religious or social groups. The findings of tribal resilience after a typhoon disaster of co-production in the Wulai, Lahaw, and Fushan tribes include the importance of historical context, how indigenous people turn to their local knowledge rather than just only participating in disaster relief, and how they produce indigenous tourism for indigenous knowledge inheritance.
    [Show full text]