Pearson-Fisher Chi-Square Statistic Revisited
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Von Mises' Frequentist Approach to Probability
Section on Statistical Education – JSM 2008 Von Mises’ Frequentist Approach to Probability Milo Schield1 and Thomas V. V. Burnham2 1 Augsburg College, Minneapolis, MN 2 Cognitive Systems, San Antonio, TX Abstract Richard Von Mises (1883-1953), the originator of the birthday problem, viewed statistics and probability theory as a science that deals with and is based on real objects rather than as a branch of mathematics that simply postulates relationships from which conclusions are derived. In this context, he formulated a strict Frequentist approach to probability. This approach is limited to observations where there are sufficient reasons to project future stability – to believe that the relative frequency of the observed attributes would tend to a fixed limit if the observations were continued indefinitely by sampling from a collective. This approach is reviewed. Some suggestions are made for statistical education. 1. Richard von Mises Richard von Mises (1883-1953) may not be well-known by statistical educators even though in 1939 he first proposed a problem that is today widely-known as the birthday problem.1 There are several reasons for this lack of recognition. First, he was educated in engineering and worked in that area for his first 30 years. Second, he published primarily in German. Third, his works in statistics focused more on theoretical foundations. Finally, his inductive approach to deriving the basic operations of probability is very different from the postulate-and-derive approach normally taught in introductory statistics. See Frank (1954) and Studies in Mathematics and Mechanics (1954) for a review of von Mises’ works. This paper is based on his two English-language books on probability: Probability, Statistics and Truth (1936) and Mathematical Theory of Probability and Statistics (1964). -
Contingency Tables Are Eaten by Large Birds of Prey
Case Study Case Study Example 9.3 beginning on page 213 of the text describes an experiment in which fish are placed in a large tank for a period of time and some Contingency Tables are eaten by large birds of prey. The fish are categorized by their level of parasitic infection, either uninfected, lightly infected, or highly infected. It is to the parasites' advantage to be in a fish that is eaten, as this provides Bret Hanlon and Bret Larget an opportunity to infect the bird in the parasites' next stage of life. The observed proportions of fish eaten are quite different among the categories. Department of Statistics University of Wisconsin|Madison Uninfected Lightly Infected Highly Infected Total October 4{6, 2011 Eaten 1 10 37 48 Not eaten 49 35 9 93 Total 50 45 46 141 The proportions of eaten fish are, respectively, 1=50 = 0:02, 10=45 = 0:222, and 37=46 = 0:804. Contingency Tables 1 / 56 Contingency Tables Case Study Infected Fish and Predation 2 / 56 Stacked Bar Graph Graphing Tabled Counts Eaten Not eaten 50 40 A stacked bar graph shows: I the sample sizes in each sample; and I the number of observations of each type within each sample. 30 This plot makes it easy to compare sample sizes among samples and 20 counts within samples, but the comparison of estimates of conditional Frequency probabilities among samples is less clear. 10 0 Uninfected Lightly Infected Highly Infected Contingency Tables Case Study Graphics 3 / 56 Contingency Tables Case Study Graphics 4 / 56 Mosaic Plot Mosaic Plot Eaten Not eaten 1.0 0.8 A mosaic plot replaces absolute frequencies (counts) with relative frequencies within each sample. -
Autocorrelation and Frequency-Resolved Optical Gating Measurements Based on the Third Harmonic Generation in a Gaseous Medium
Appl. Sci. 2015, 5, 136-144; doi:10.3390/app5020136 OPEN ACCESS applied sciences ISSN 2076-3417 www.mdpi.com/journal/applsci Article Autocorrelation and Frequency-Resolved Optical Gating Measurements Based on the Third Harmonic Generation in a Gaseous Medium Yoshinari Takao 1,†, Tomoko Imasaka 2,†, Yuichiro Kida 1,† and Totaro Imasaka 1,3,* 1 Department of Applied Chemistry, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyushu University, 744, Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan; E-Mails: [email protected] (Y.T.); [email protected] (Y.K.) 2 Laboratory of Chemistry, Graduate School of Design, Kyushu University, 4-9-1, Shiobaru, Minami-ku, Fukuoka 815-8540, Japan; E-Mail: [email protected] 3 Division of Optoelectronics and Photonics, Center for Future Chemistry, Kyushu University, 744, Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan † These authors contributed equally to this work. * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]; Tel.: +81-92-802-2883; Fax: +81-92-802-2888. Academic Editor: Takayoshi Kobayashi Received: 7 April 2015 / Accepted: 3 June 2015 / Published: 9 June 2015 Abstract: A gas was utilized in producing the third harmonic emission as a nonlinear optical medium for autocorrelation and frequency-resolved optical gating measurements to evaluate the pulse width and chirp of a Ti:sapphire laser. Due to a wide frequency domain available for a gas, this approach has potential for use in measuring the pulse width in the optical (ultraviolet/visible) region beyond one octave and thus for measuring an optical pulse width less than 1 fs. -
FORMULAS from EPIDEMIOLOGY KEPT SIMPLE (3E) Chapter 3: Epidemiologic Measures
FORMULAS FROM EPIDEMIOLOGY KEPT SIMPLE (3e) Chapter 3: Epidemiologic Measures Basic epidemiologic measures used to quantify: • frequency of occurrence • the effect of an exposure • the potential impact of an intervention. Epidemiologic Measures Measures of disease Measures of Measures of potential frequency association impact (“Measures of Effect”) Incidence Prevalence Absolute measures of Relative measures of Attributable Fraction Attributable Fraction effect effect in exposed cases in the Population Incidence proportion Incidence rate Risk difference Risk Ratio (Cumulative (incidence density, (Incidence proportion (Incidence Incidence, Incidence hazard rate, person- difference) Proportion Ratio) Risk) time rate) Incidence odds Rate Difference Rate Ratio (Incidence density (Incidence density difference) ratio) Prevalence Odds Ratio Difference Macintosh HD:Users:buddygerstman:Dropbox:eks:formula_sheet.doc Page 1 of 7 3.1 Measures of Disease Frequency No. of onsets Incidence Proportion = No. at risk at beginning of follow-up • Also called risk, average risk, and cumulative incidence. • Can be measured in cohorts (closed populations) only. • Requires follow-up of individuals. No. of onsets Incidence Rate = ∑person-time • Also called incidence density and average hazard. • When disease is rare (incidence proportion < 5%), incidence rate ≈ incidence proportion. • In cohorts (closed populations), it is best to sum individual person-time longitudinally. It can also be estimated as Σperson-time ≈ (average population size) × (duration of follow-up). Actuarial adjustments may be needed when the disease outcome is not rare. • In an open populations, Σperson-time ≈ (average population size) × (duration of follow-up). Examples of incidence rates in open populations include: births Crude birth rate (per m) = × m mid-year population size deaths Crude mortality rate (per m) = × m mid-year population size deaths < 1 year of age Infant mortality rate (per m) = × m live births No. -
Use of Chi-Square Statistics
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike License. Your use of this material constitutes acceptance of that license and the conditions of use of materials on this site. Copyright 2008, The Johns Hopkins University and Marie Diener-West. All rights reserved. Use of these materials permitted only in accordance with license rights granted. Materials provided “AS IS”; no representations or warranties provided. User assumes all responsibility for use, and all liability related thereto, and must independently review all materials for accuracy and efficacy. May contain materials owned by others. User is responsible for obtaining permissions for use from third parties as needed. Use of the Chi-Square Statistic Marie Diener-West, PhD Johns Hopkins University Section A Use of the Chi-Square Statistic in a Test of Association Between a Risk Factor and a Disease The Chi-Square ( X2) Statistic Categorical data may be displayed in contingency tables The chi-square statistic compares the observed count in each table cell to the count which would be expected under the assumption of no association between the row and column classifications The chi-square statistic may be used to test the hypothesis of no association between two or more groups, populations, or criteria Observed counts are compared to expected counts 4 Displaying Data in a Contingency Table Criterion 2 Criterion 1 1 2 3 . C Total . 1 n11 n12 n13 n1c r1 2 n21 n22 n23 . n2c r2 . 3 n31 . r nr1 nrc rr Total c1 c2 cc n 5 Chi-Square Test Statistic -
Chapter 4: Fisher's Exact Test in Completely Randomized Experiments
1 Chapter 4: Fisher’s Exact Test in Completely Randomized Experiments Fisher (1925, 1926) was concerned with testing hypotheses regarding the effect of treat- ments. Specifically, he focused on testing sharp null hypotheses, that is, null hypotheses under which all potential outcomes are known exactly. Under such null hypotheses all un- known quantities in Table 4 in Chapter 1 are known–there are no missing data anymore. As we shall see, this implies that we can figure out the distribution of any statistic generated by the randomization. Fisher’s great insight concerns the value of the physical randomization of the treatments for inference. Fisher’s classic example is that of the tea-drinking lady: “A lady declares that by tasting a cup of tea made with milk she can discriminate whether the milk or the tea infusion was first added to the cup. ... Our experi- ment consists in mixing eight cups of tea, four in one way and four in the other, and presenting them to the subject in random order. ... Her task is to divide the cups into two sets of 4, agreeing, if possible, with the treatments received. ... The element in the experimental procedure which contains the essential safeguard is that the two modifications of the test beverage are to be prepared “in random order.” This is in fact the only point in the experimental procedure in which the laws of chance, which are to be in exclusive control of our frequency distribution, have been explicitly introduced. ... it may be said that the simple precaution of randomisation will suffice to guarantee the validity of the test of significance, by which the result of the experiment is to be judged.” The approach is clear: an experiment is designed to evaluate the lady’s claim to be able to discriminate wether the milk or tea was first poured into the cup. -
Knowledge and Human Capital As Sustainable Competitive Advantage in Human Resource Management
sustainability Article Knowledge and Human Capital as Sustainable Competitive Advantage in Human Resource Management Miloš Hitka 1 , Alžbeta Kucharˇcíková 2, Peter Štarcho ˇn 3 , Žaneta Balážová 1,*, Michal Lukáˇc 4 and Zdenko Stacho 5 1 Faculty of Wood Sciences and Technology, Technical University in Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 24, 960 01 Zvolen, Slovakia; [email protected] 2 Faculty of Management Science and Informatics, University of Žilina, Univerzitná 8215/1, 010 26 Žilina, Slovakia; [email protected] 3 Faculty of Management, Comenius University in Bratislava, Odbojárov 10, P.O. BOX 95, 82005 Bratislava, Slovakia; [email protected] 4 Faculty of Social Sciences, University of SS. Cyril and Methodius in Trnava, Buˇcianska4/A, 917 01 Trnava, Slovakia; [email protected] 5 Institut of Civil Society, University of SS. Cyril and Methodius in Trnava, Buˇcianska4/A, 917 01 Trnava, Slovakia; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +421-45-520-6189 Received: 2 August 2019; Accepted: 9 September 2019; Published: 12 September 2019 Abstract: The ability to do business successfully and to stay on the market is a unique feature of each company ensured by highly engaged and high-quality employees. Therefore, innovative leaders able to manage, motivate, and encourage other employees can be a great competitive advantage of an enterprise. Knowledge of important personality factors regarding leadership, incentives and stimulus, systematic assessment, and subsequent motivation factors are parts of human capital and essential conditions for effective development of its potential. Familiarity with various ways to motivate leaders and their implementation in practice are important for improving the work performance and reaching business goals. -
Fundamental Frequency Detection
Fundamental Frequency Detection Jan Cernock´y,ˇ Valentina Hubeika cernocky|ihubeika @fit.vutbr.cz { } DCGM FIT BUT Brno Fundamental Frequency Detection Jan Cernock´y,ValentinaHubeika,DCGMFITBUTBrnoˇ 1/37 Agenda Fundamental frequency characteristics. • Issues. • Autocorrelation method, AMDF, NFFC. • Formant impact reduction. • Long time predictor. • Cepstrum. • Improvements in fundamental frequency detection. • Fundamental Frequency Detection Jan Cernock´y,ValentinaHubeika,DCGMFITBUTBrnoˇ 2/37 Recap – speech production and its model Fundamental Frequency Detection Jan Cernock´y,ValentinaHubeika,DCGMFITBUTBrnoˇ 3/37 Introduction Fundamental frequency, pitch, is the frequency vocal cords oscillate on: F . • 0 The period of fundamental frequency, (pitch period) is T = 1 . • 0 F0 The term “lag” denotes the pitch period expressed in samples : L = T Fs, where Fs • 0 is the sampling frequency. Fundamental Frequency Detection Jan Cernock´y,ValentinaHubeika,DCGMFITBUTBrnoˇ 4/37 Fundamental Frequency Utilization speech synthesis – melody generation. • coding • – in simple encoding such as LPC, reduction of the bit-stream can be reached by separate transfer of the articulatory tract parameters, energy, voiced/unvoiced sound flag and pitch F0. – in more complex encoders (such as RPE-LTP or ACELP in the GSM cell phones) long time predictor LTP is used. LPT is a filter with a “long” impulse response which however contains only few non-zero components. Fundamental Frequency Detection Jan Cernock´y,ValentinaHubeika,DCGMFITBUTBrnoˇ 5/37 Fundamental Frequency Characteristics F takes the values from 50 Hz (males) to 400 Hz (children), with Fs=8000 Hz these • 0 frequencies correspond to the lags L=160 to 20 samples. It can be seen, that with low values F0 approaches the frame length (20 ms, which corresponds to 160 samples). -
STAT 830 the Basics of Nonparametric Models The
STAT 830 The basics of nonparametric models The Empirical Distribution Function { EDF The most common interpretation of probability is that the probability of an event is the long run relative frequency of that event when the basic experiment is repeated over and over independently. So, for instance, if X is a random variable then P (X ≤ x) should be the fraction of X values which turn out to be no more than x in a long sequence of trials. In general an empirical probability or expected value is just such a fraction or average computed from the data. To make this precise, suppose we have a sample X1;:::;Xn of iid real valued random variables. Then we make the following definitions: Definition: The empirical distribution function, or EDF, is n 1 X F^ (x) = 1(X ≤ x): n n i i=1 This is a cumulative distribution function. It is an estimate of F , the cdf of the Xs. People also speak of the empirical distribution of the sample: n 1 X P^(A) = 1(X 2 A) n i i=1 ^ This is the probability distribution whose cdf is Fn. ^ Now we consider the qualities of Fn as an estimate, the standard error of the estimate, the estimated standard error, confidence intervals, simultaneous confidence intervals and so on. To begin with we describe the best known summaries of the quality of an estimator: bias, variance, mean squared error and root mean squared error. Bias, variance, MSE and RMSE There are many ways to judge the quality of estimates of a parameter φ; all of them focus on the distribution of the estimation error φ^−φ. -
Approximate Maximum Likelihood Method for Frequency Estimation
Statistica Sinica 10(2000), 157-171 APPROXIMATE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD FOR FREQUENCY ESTIMATION Dawei Huang Queensland University of Technology Abstract: A frequency can be estimated by few Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) coefficients, see Rife and Vincent (1970), Quinn (1994, 1997). This approach is computationally efficient. However, the statistical efficiency of the estimator de- pends on the location of the frequency. In this paper, we explain this approach from a point of view of an Approximate Maximum Likelihood (AML) method. Then we enhance the efficiency of this method by using more DFT coefficients. Compared to 30% and 61% efficiency in the worst cases in Quinn (1994) and Quinn (1997), respectively, we show that if 13 or 25 DFT coefficients are used, AML will achieve at least 90% or 95% efficiency for all frequency locations. Key words and phrases: Approximate Maximum Likelihood, discrete Fourier trans- form, efficiency, fast algorithm, frequency estimation, semi-sufficient statistics. 1. Introduction A model that has been discussed widely in Time Series Analysis and Signal Processing is the following: xt = Acos(tω + φ)+ut,t=0,...,T − 1, (1) where 0 <A,0 <ω<π,and {ut} is a stationary sequence satisfying certain conditions to be specified later. The objective is to estimate the frequency ω from the observations {xt}. After obtaining an estimator of the frequency, the amplitude A and the phase φ can be estimated by a standard linear least squares method. Two topics have been of interest in the study of this model: estimation efficiency and computational complexity. Following the idea of Best Asymp- totic Normal estimation (BAN), the efficiency hereafter is measured by the ratio of the Cramer - Rao Bound (CRB) for unbiased estimators over the variance of the asymptotic distribution of the estimator. -
Measures of Association for Contingency Tables
Newsom Psy 525/625 Categorical Data Analysis, Spring 2021 1 Measures of Association for Contingency Tables The Pearson chi-squared statistic and related significance tests provide only part of the story of contingency table results. Much more can be gleaned from contingency tables than just whether the results are different from what would be expected due to chance (Kline, 2013). For many data sets, the sample size will be large enough that even small departures from expected frequencies will be significant. And, for other data sets, we may have low power to detect significance. We therefore need to know more about the strength of the magnitude of the difference between the groups or the strength of the relationship between the two variables. Phi The most common measure of magnitude of effect for two binary variables is the phi coefficient. Phi can take on values between -1.0 and 1.0, with 0.0 representing complete independence and -1.0 or 1.0 representing a perfect association. In probability distribution terms, the joint probabilities for the cells will be equal to the product of their respective marginal probabilities, Pn( ij ) = Pn( i++) Pn( j ) , only if the two variables are independent. The formula for phi is often given in terms of a shortcut notation for the frequencies in the four cells, called the fourfold table. Azen and Walker Notation Fourfold table notation n11 n12 A B n21 n22 C D The equation for computing phi is a fairly simple function of the cell frequencies, with a cross- 1 multiplication and subtraction of the two sets of diagonal cells in the numerator. -
Chi-Square Tests
Chi-Square Tests Nathaniel E. Helwig Associate Professor of Psychology and Statistics University of Minnesota October 17, 2020 Copyright c 2020 by Nathaniel E. Helwig Nathaniel E. Helwig (Minnesota) Chi-Square Tests c October 17, 2020 1 / 32 Table of Contents 1. Goodness of Fit 2. Tests of Association (for 2-way Tables) 3. Conditional Association Tests (for 3-way Tables) Nathaniel E. Helwig (Minnesota) Chi-Square Tests c October 17, 2020 2 / 32 Goodness of Fit Table of Contents 1. Goodness of Fit 2. Tests of Association (for 2-way Tables) 3. Conditional Association Tests (for 3-way Tables) Nathaniel E. Helwig (Minnesota) Chi-Square Tests c October 17, 2020 3 / 32 Goodness of Fit A Primer on Categorical Data Analysis In the previous chapter, we looked at inferential methods for a single proportion or for the difference between two proportions. In this chapter, we will extend these ideas to look more generally at contingency table analysis. All of these methods are a form of \categorical data analysis", which involves statistical inference for nominal (or categorial) variables. Nathaniel E. Helwig (Minnesota) Chi-Square Tests c October 17, 2020 4 / 32 Goodness of Fit Categorical Data with J > 2 Levels Suppose that X is a categorical (i.e., nominal) variable that has J possible realizations: X 2 f0;:::;J − 1g. Furthermore, suppose that P (X = j) = πj where πj is the probability that X is equal to j for j = 0;:::;J − 1. PJ−1 J−1 Assume that the probabilities satisfy j=0 πj = 1, so that fπjgj=0 defines a valid probability mass function for the random variable X.