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Coca Cola European Partners 15 September 2016 Europe/Netherlands Equity Research Beer & Alcoholic Beverages Coca Cola European Partners (CCE.AS / CCE.N) Rating NEUTRAL [V] Price (13 Sep 16, €) 35.75 INITIATION Target price (€) 37.00 Market Cap (€ m) 17,119.3 Cost synergies offset by weak category growth Enterprise value (€ m) 23,077.7 Secondary RIC CCE.N ■ Initiate coverage with Neutral rating, TP €37: Our FY16-18E EPS Price (13 Sep 16, US$) 39.75 estimates are 3-4% below consensus, driven by a weaker topline outlook due Rating NEUTRAL [V] to soft category growth, potential macro-risk (UK) and regulatory pressures. Target price (US$) 41.40 *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each Synergies give some degree of earnings visibility; however, we don’t expect analyst's or each team's respective sector. upside to targets, and balance sheet activity is unlikely until FY18. We prefer ¹Target price is for 12 months. [V] = Stock Considered Volatile (see Disclosure Appendix) Coca-Cola HBC (CCH, see our upgrade report). Research Analysts ■ Weak topline outlook: We believe CCEP is a stronger business following Sanjeet Aujla the merger with the German and Iberian bottlers, however we expect organic 44 20 7888 0353 growth to be at the low-end of the 'low single-digit' guidance (CSe c1-1.5%) [email protected] noting; i) 83% of CCEP's volumes are from CSDs, which remain in decline ii) Laurent Grandet CCEP has been losing share in CSDs across its major markets (except 212 538 7901 [email protected] Germany) iii) potential further regulatory headwinds as the sugar debate Pavan Daswani intensifies across Europe. 44 20 7883 0539 ■ No upside to synergy target: CCEP's €315-340m net cost synergy target [email protected] gives some earnings visibility over the next few years; however, we see little Clay Crumbliss, CFA upside; i) our analysis suggests the targets are in line with historical bottling 212 538 1076 [email protected] deals, ii) we acknowledge further restructuring potential in Germany (8% margin v peers at mid-teens), however legacy issues will limit some of the potential. Furthermore, CCEP may require more investment if the weak market conditions persist. ■ Balance sheet support from FY18: We expect little balance sheet activity in the near term given leverage at 3x FY16E net debt/EBITDA. However, we acknowledge management's strong cash return track record and from FY18 we expect CCEP to return cash to shareholders (buybacks are 4-5% EPS accretive), or further consolidate the Coke network, with potential opportunities across Europe and North/West Africa. ■ Valuation: CCEP's FY17E P/E of 16.3x does not appear demanding versus peers; however this is flattered by its higher leverage and low cost of debt. Its 15x EV/EBIT is at a premium to other Coke bottlers. We prefer CCH, given its stronger growth and potential balance sheet catalysts. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics 3 8 Year 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Revenue (€ m) 10,976.0 10,704.0 10,725.9 10,854.6 3 6 EBITDA (€ m) 1,825.0 1,825.9 1,974.5 2,101.3 3 4 Adjusted net income (€ m) 856.00 955.76 1,074.44 1,170.87 3 2 CS EPS (adj.) (€) 1.75 1.95 2.20 2.45 3 0 ROIC (%) 6.3 6.7 7.4 7.9 Ju n - 1 6 Ju l- 1 6 A u g - 1 6 Sep - 1 6 P/E (adj.) (x) 20.4 18.3 16.3 14.6 P/E rel. (%) 113.6 99.1 106.1 109.8 CCE.A S A M ST ERD A M EXCH A N GE IN D EX EV/EBITDA (x) 12.9 12.5 11.2 10.7 The price relative chart measures performance against the Dividend (12/16E, €) 0.59 Net debt/equity (12/16E,%) 58.5 AMSTERDAM EXCHANGE INDEX which closed at 442.6 Dividend yield (12/16E,%) 1.6 Net debt (12/16E, € m) 5,778.2 on 13/09/16 BV/share (12/16E, €) 20.5 IC (12/16E, € m) 15,654.8 On 13/09/16 the spot exchange rate was €1/Eu 1.- Free float (%) 33.3 EV/IC (12/16E, (x) 1.5 Eu.89/US$1 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 3.2 7.4 Relative (%) 5.6 1.4 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 15 September 2016 Coca Cola European Partners (CCE.AS) Price (13 Sep 2016): €35.75; Rating: NEUTRAL [V]; Target Price: €37.00; Analyst: Sanjeet Aujla Income statement (€ m) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Company Background Revenue 10,976 10,704 10,726 10,855 Coca-Cola Enterprises is one of the world's largest Coca-Cola EBITDA 1,825 1,826 1,974 2,101 bottlers manufacturing, bottling and marketing Coca-Cola products Depr. & amort. (417) (417) (429) (434) in eight territories in Western Europe. EBIT 1,408 1,408 1,545 1,667 Net interest exp. (161) (134) (113) (106) Blue/Grey Sky Scenario Associates - - - - PBT 1,237 1,274 1,433 1,561 Income taxes (149) (287) (301) (352) Profit after tax 856 956 1,074 1,171 Minorities - - - - Preferred dividends - - - - Associates & other 0 0 0 0 Net profit 856 956 1,074 1,171 Other NPAT adjustments (418) (96) (172) (115) Reported net income 438 860 902 1,056 Cash flow (€ m) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E EBIT 1,408 1,408 1,545 1,667 Net interest (161) (134) (113) (106) Cash taxes paid - - - - Change in working capital - - - - Other cash and non-cash items (72) 123 70 (32) Cash flow from operations 1,175 1,397 1,502 1,529 CAPEX 0 (557) (536) (532) Free cashflow to the firm 1,175 840 966 997 Acquisitions - - - - Divestments - 20 20 20 Other investment/(outflows) 0 (35) 0 0 Cash flow from investments 0 (572) (516) (512) Net share issue/(repurchase) - 0 0 (1,000) Dividends paid 0 (253) (283) (318) Our Blue Sky Scenario (€) 48.00 Issuance (retirement) of debt - - - - We assume (i) c3.5% organic growth – higher end of the low-single Cashflow from financing 0 (253) (283) (1,318) digit organic growth forecast guidance, driven by revenue synergies Changes in net cash/debt (6,389) 611 703 (301) and innovation in non-carbonate categories ii) Margin improvement from 25% additional cost synergies (vs €315-340 official target). Net debt at start - 6,389 5,778 5,075 Change in net debt 6,389 (611) (703) 301 Our Grey Sky Scenario (€) 28.00 Net debt at end 6,389 5,778 5,075 5,376 We assume i) -1% organic growth driven by regulation and Balance sheet (€ m) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E sugar/soft drink taxes (UK, France and Spain over the next few Assets years), further market share losses in carbonates ii) Lower margin Total current assets 3,524 3,436 3,377 3,408 improvement from 25% of cost savings being re-invested back into Total assets 22,160 22,226 22,254 22,363 the business due to a weaker topline growth Liabilities Total current liabilities 3,253 3,241 3,309 3,330 Share price performance Total liabilities 12,992 12,349 11,694 11,996 Total equity and liabilities 22,160 22,226 22,254 22,363 38 Per share 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E No. of shares (wtd avg.) (mn) 489 489 489 478 36 CS EPS (adj.) (€) 1.75 1.95 2.20 2.45 Prev. EPS (€) 34 Dividend (€) 0.53 0.59 0.66 0.73 Free cash flow per share (€) 2.40 1.72 1.97 2.09 32 Key ratios and valuation 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 30 Growth/Margin (%) Jun- 16 Jul- 16 Aug- 16 Sep- 16 Sales growth (%) - (2.5) 0.2 1.2 EBIT growth (%) 0.0 9.7 7.9 Net income growth (%) 11.7 12.4 9.0 CCE.AS AMSTERDAM EXCHANGE INDEX EPS growth (%) - 11.6 12.4 11.6 EBITDA margin (%) 16.6 17.1 18.4 19.4 The price relative chart measures performance against the AMSTERDAM EBIT margin (%) 12.8 13.2 14.4 15.4 EXCHANGE INDEX which closed at 442.6 on 13/09/16 Pretax profit margin (%) 11.3 11.9 13.4 14.4 On 13/09/16 the spot exchange rate was €1/Eu 1.- Eu.89/US$1 Net income margin (%) 7.8 8.9 10.0 10.8 Valuation 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E EV/Sales (x) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.9 12.5 11.2 10.7 EV/EBIT (x) 16.7 16.3 14.4 13.5 Dividend yield (%) 1.47 1.64 1.84 2.06 P/E (x) 20.4 18.3 16.3 14.6 Credit ratios (%) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Net debt/equity (%) 69.7 58.5 48.1 51.9 Net debt to EBITDA (x) 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.6 Interest coverage ratio (x) 8.7 10.5 13.7 15.7 Source: FTI, Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Securities (EUROPE) LTD.
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