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The Current Economic Situation in Germany Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2021 6

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The Current Economic Situation in Germany Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2021 6 Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2021 5 The current economic situation in Germany Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2021 6 Overview Resurgence of pandemic demic is combatted successfully. Efforts to ac- is slowing economic recovery celerate the production and distribution of vac- worldwide cines around the world are therefore particu- larly important, and not merely for humanitarian Global eco- The exceptionally rapid global economic recov- reasons. nomic recovery ery, which had allowed a sizeable part of the lost momentum in Q4 severe downturn caused by the pandemic to The international financial markets were shaped Optimistic view already be recouped over the summer months, by a bifurcation during the final quarter of starting to assert itself in the lost considerable momentum in the fourth 2020 and first quarter of 2021: while the avail- financial quarter. This was due mainly to new waves of ability of vaccines strengthened market partici- markets infections across much of the world. The con- pants’ optimism, the renewed rise in infections tainment measures were tightened again in and containment measures were perceived as a Europe, in particular, which placed a marked drag on growth. Within the euro area, the strain on the region’s economies. Economic Governing Council of the ECB responded to the output in the euro area fell by 0.6% on the second wave of infections with a decision to quarter in the fourth quarter of 2020. In the increase the envelope of the pandemic emer- United States, growth in real gross domestic gency purchase programme (PEPP) and to ex- product (GDP) dropped off significantly. In tend the horizon for net purchases under the China, meanwhile, which has not yet experi- programme. This helped bring down the yields enced a new wave of the pandemic, growth on sovereign bonds of euro area countries with remained brisk. China also made a significant relatively low credit ratings. Average yields on contribution to the ongoing global industrial euro area corporate bonds also continued to recovery, with industry visibly decoupling from decline, hitting new lows in January. By con- developments in the services sector. trast, yields on highly rated European sovereign bonds picked up, mainly due to the interest Economic devel- With infection rates still high and containment rate linkage with the United States, where opments in 2021 measures having been further tightened in yields on US Treasuries rose sharply. Market depend on how the pandemic many places, the global economy looks set to participants now see a greater likelihood of the unfolds get off to a weak start to 2021. However, the incoming US administration undertaking sub- rapid development of vaccines at least means stantial deficit spending. An increase in market- that vaccination campaigns are now under way based measures of long-term inflation expect- in many countries. There are consequently ations, which was observed in numerous coun- hopes that it will be possible to ease restric- tries, was also particularly pronounced in the tions noticeably over the next few months. United States. The combined impact of the However, there are also potential risks if new aforementioned developments sent global strains of the virus spread. Nonetheless, other equity markets sharply higher. Financial market factors have brought about a marked brighten- participants upgraded their earnings outlook, ing of the risk assessment as of late. A trade particularly for US enterprises. In foreign ex- deal was struck between the European Union change markets, hopes that the vaccinations and the United Kingdom. Moreover, a number would help global activity bounce back far of countries look set to introduce additional, more quickly than previously expected damp- large- scale fiscal stimulus measures, which ened demand for currencies regarded as rela- could further fuel global economic activity. tively safe havens. This meant that the US dol- Nonetheless, a sustainable global economic re- lar and yen lost value in effective terms. The covery can still only be achieved if the pan- Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2021 7 euro also depreciated slightly on a weighted going asset purchases again fostered monetary average. growth. Second, the commercial banks signifi- cantly stepped up their securitised lending to Monetary pol- At its December 2020 monetary policy meet- private issuers. Third, loans to the domestic pri- icy: ECB Govern- ing, the ECB Governing Council recalibrated its vate sector saw major growth overall, even ing Council recalibrates monetary policy measures in view of the eco- though non- financial corporations sought monetary policy measures nomic consequences of the resurgence in fewer loans than in the preceding quarter. The coronavirus infections. In particular, it increased banks participating in the Bank Lending Survey the envelope for the PEPP by €500 billion to a (BLS) also reported a drop in demand for loans total of €1,850 billion. If favourable financing to enterprises. At the same time, though, they conditions can be maintained with overall reported tightening their credit standards in all lower purchase volumes, the decision states loan categories surveyed, particularly on ac- that the envelope need not be used in full. At count of elevated risk related to the pandemic. the same time, the Governing Council ex- tended the horizon for net purchases under the The economic recovery in Germany was Second wave PEPP to at least the end of March 2022. In add- brought to a standstill in the final quarter of of pandemic thwarted ition, it recalibrated the conditions of the third 2020. According to the Federal Statistical Of- Germany’s eco- nomic recovery series of targeted longer- term refinancing op- fice’s flash estimate, real GDP was up by a mar- at end of 2020 erations (TLTRO- III) again and will offer three ginal 0.1% after seasonal and calendar adjust- additional operations in 2021. It will, moreover, ment. This means that economic activity was offer four additional pandemic emergency still almost 4% down on the pre- crisis level of longer- term refinancing operations (PELTROs) the fourth quarter of 2019. The catch-up was in 2021. The Governing Council said that it halted by the resurgent infection rates and the would continue conducting regular lending op- associated gradual tightening of containment erations as fixed rate tender procedures with measures. These measures primarily targeted full allotment at the prevailing conditions for as contact- intensive areas such as recreational long as necessary. In addition, it extended the and cultural services, hotel and restaurant ser- collateral easing measures up until June 2022 vices, and bricks- and- mortar retail outlets, lead- and the Eurosystem repo facility for central ing them to report considerable losses in some banks (EUREP) and all temporary swap and cases. By contrast, many sectors that were not repo lines with non- euro area central banks directly affected by the measures continued to until March 2022. recover. The industrial sector, in particular, stepped up production substantially. Monetary In the final quarter of the year, monetary dynamics still growth was also shaped by the impact of the The construction sector also increased its value Sectors hit by highly acceler- containment ated due to coronavirus pandemic and economic policy ac- added. It has so far remained largely unscathed measures to coronavirus varying degrees pandemic tion taken in response to it. The annual growth by the pandemic. On the expenditure side, the rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 tightened restrictions had a noticeable effect climbed to 12.3% by end- December, more on household consumption especially, which is than double its rate at the end of the previous likely to have shrunk considerably despite the year. Given the persistently high level of uncer- strong increase in car purchases. Exports re- tainty about how the pandemic will unfold, mained on an upward trajectory, by contrast. precautionary considerations still dominated Economic indicators are also signalling that en- for households and enterprises, with highly li- terprises are likely to have increased their in- quid overnight deposits, in particular, recording vestment in machinery and equipment as well. substantial net growth. On the counterparts side, this development was driven by three fac- These developments are also feeding through tors in particular. First, the Eurosystem’s on- to bank lending, which was more dynamic Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2021 8 Fresh uptick in overall than it had been in the preceding quar- increased again in the fourth quarter owing to German banks’ ter. Loans to households once again made the a decline in short-time work. Even so, wage loans to domes- tic private sector largest contribution to growth; demand for drift (i.e. the difference between the growth loans to households for house purchase con- rates of negotiated and actual wages) is likely tinued to rise. Loans to non- financial corpor- to have been distinctly negative, as in the two ations also saw distinct growth in the fourth preceding quarters. The wage demands of the quarter. Heightened uncertainty about future trade unions in this year’s major wage round economic developments and the resultant re- currently amount to 4% to 6% for a period of luctance to invest did, in and of themselves, 12 months and continue to reflect the ongoing dampen German enterprises’ demand for bank strains of the pandemic. loans. However, not all economic sectors were equally affected by this; in particular, financing In the final quarter of 2020, consumer prices Inflation in Q4 needs remained high among enterprises in the (HICP) remained constant on the quarter in 2020 clearly dampened by loan- intensive construction and real estate sec- seasonally adjusted terms after falling markedly temporary VAT cut and energy tors. In addition, the enterprises affected by the in the third quarter owing to the temporary re- prices, but up lockdown again saw an increasing need for duction in value added tax (VAT).
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