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The Current Economic Situation in Germany Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report May 2021 6

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The Current Economic Situation in Germany Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report May 2021 6 Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report May 2021 5 The current economic situation in Germany Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report May 2021 6 Overview Light at the end of the dustrial goods caused commodity prices to in- tunnel crease considerably, and transport costs rose steeply. This cost surge most recently affected Subdued start to The pandemic maintained a firm grip on the industrial producer prices perceptibly and will year for global global economy in the first quarter of 2021 as probably have an impact on consumer prices, economy well. In many places, new waves of infections too. and tighter containment measures set the re- covery back. Services were once again particu- In the meantime, vaccination campaigns have Vaccination larly affected. Towards the end of the reporting taken off in many places, and in a great num- progress holds out hope for period, supply shortages were a drag on indus- ber of advanced economies infection rates opening try, which had initially experienced a lively ex- have flattened markedly. It appears that, as pansion. This also drove industrial producer from the third quarter if not beforehand, it will prices up. On the whole, the global economy be possible to open the economy in those continued its recovery in the first quarter, yet at places on a broad scale, which would lend sig- a distinctly reduced pace. In the euro area, nificant momentum to the global economic gross domestic product (GDP) was even down recovery . by 0.6% from an already weak preceding quar- ter. Japan and the United Kingdom likewise ex- The international financial markets reflected Financial perienced a marked drop in activity. By con- this outlook for an economic recovery. Market markets reflect- ing more favour- trast, the economic recovery took off again in participants’ confidence was boosted by pro- able economic the United States, where many restrictions gress in vaccinations, positive business cycle outlook were already lifted over the course of the first signals and an accommodative monetary policy quarter and extensive stimulus packages gave stance. Given simultaneous fiscal policy stimu- the economy an additional boost. In China, lus – particularly in the United States – yields on where the pandemic has already been under benchmark government bonds rose world- control for quite some time now, the economy wide, at times distinctly, via the interest rate continued to recover, whereas some other linkage with the United States. This rise in yields emerging market economies suffered from the occurred in a setting of calm markets and high economic fallout caused by new waves of in- liquidity. A key factor behind the increase in fections. risk- free interest rates was mounting inflation expectations, which continued to pick up from Supply- side The industrial sector was one of the main rea- their low in March 2020 on both sides of the bottlenecks a sons why the global economy remained on a Atlantic. Real interest rates therefore rose less drag on global industrial upturn path of expansion in the final quarter of 2020 strongly, on the whole, than nominal govern- and first quarter of 2021, despite new waves of ment bond yields. In January 2021, yields on infections. It benefited considerably from the euro area corporate bonds initially hit all- time pandemic- induced shifts in demand. Since its lows before then rebounding as well. They drastic slump in the spring of last year, global nonetheless continued to reflect very favour- industrial production had already grown sub- able financing conditions as this report went to stantially, surpassing its pre- crisis level in De- press. The upbeat setting led to strong price cember 2020. At last report, however, the up- gains in the equity markets. Alongside the turn in manufacturing was running into supply- aforementioned factors, this also reflected side bottlenecks. Purchasing managers the enterprises’ higher profit expectations and in- world over complained about rising delivery vestors’ high risk appetite, which dampened times. In addition, the strong demand for in- demand in the foreign exchange markets for Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report May 2021 7 some currencies regarded as relatively safe. the persistently low level of interest rates en- Consequently, the yen and Swiss franc lost couraged these sectors to continue to accumu- value in effective terms. The euro also depreci- late, in particular, highly liquid overnight de- ated on a weighted average, though its losses posits. On the counterparts side, the Eurosys- were small by comparison. Given rising yields tem’s continued asset purchases boosted mon- on US Treasuries, the effective exchange rate of etary growth. Moreover, banks’ lending to the the US dollar, which also often depreciates domestic private sector once again registered when risk appetites rise, remained virtually un- significant inflows on balance. It was particu- changed. By contrast, the pound sterling bene- larly loans to non- financial corporations which fited from the trade and cooperation agree- picked up substantially in some Member States ment with the EU reached at the end of 2020 during the quarter under review; households’ and the United Kingdom’s successes in its vac- demand for loans for house purchase also re- cination campaign. mained lively. At the same time, the banks par- ticipating in the Bank Lending Survey (BLS) re- Monetary Following its March and April monetary policy ported mostly tightening their credit standards policy : ECB Gov- meetings, the Governing Council of the Euro- due to elevated risk related to the pandemic. erning Council expecting higher pean Central Bank (ECB) expected purchases monthly PEPP German eco- purchases in Q2 under the pandemic emergency purchase pro- Aggregate output in Germany fell strongly in gramme (PEPP) over the second quarter to be the first quarter of 2021. According to the Fed- nomic output down strongly conducted at a significantly higher pace than eral Statistical Office’s flash estimate, real GDP in Q1 2021 during the first few months of the year. This was 1.7% down on the quarter after seasonal position was based on an assessment of devel- and calendar adjustment. This meant that eco- opments in financing conditions since the be- nomic activity again fell short of the pre- crisis ginning of the year, especially of the rise in level of the fourth quarter of 2019 by almost market rates over this period. At the same time, 5%. The setback can be attributed in large part the Governing Council reaffirmed its decision to the stricter and more prolonged measures to taken in December 2020 to continue to con- protect against coronavirus compared with the duct net purchases under the PEPP with a total preceding quarter. In particular, this hit a num- envelope of €1,850 billion until at least the end ber of services sectors hard. Moreover, indus- of March 2022 and, in any case, until it judges trial output stagnated, and construction output that the coronavirus crisis phase is over. If even declined, after both sectors had provided favour able financing conditions can be main- considerable support to the economy in the tained with smaller asset purchase flows over- previous quarter. Various factors were at work all, the envelope of €1,850 billion need not be here. In the construction sector, the return of used in full. Equally, the envelope can also be the VAT rates to their higher levels at the start increased if required. of the year and the unfavourable weather con- ditions in January and February had a dampen- Monetary In the first quarter of 2021, the broad monetary ing effect. In industry, bottlenecks in the supply dynamics still aggregate M3 once again went up steeply on of intermediate goods led to the recovery stall- strong on account of account of the impact of the coronavirus pan- ing, despite a further increase in demand. The coronavirus pandemic demic and the economic policy responses. Al- automotive sector experienced delays in pro- though monetary dynamics slowed down con- duction owing to a lack of semiconductors. siderably compared with the situation at the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis a year ago, On the demand side, it was probably, above all, Strong signs of the annual growth rate of the broad monetary private consumption which declined strongly in slowdown, mainly in private aggregate M3, at 10.1% at the end of March, the first quarter. A host of opportunities for consumption remained high. Precautionary considerations consumption of services were either partially or on the part of households and enterprises and entirely unavailable owing to the coronavirus Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report May 2021 8 mitigation measures. In addition, the return of second half of 2020. As the mitigation meas- VAT rates to their higher level dampened de- ures first began to be eased in March and pro- mand for consumer durables such as motor gress on vaccinations advanced, the labour vehicles. Purchases of such goods had been market also saw a return of confidence in de- brought forward to the second half of the pre- velopments over the next few months. vious year. Businesses probably reduced invest- ment in new machinery and equipment in the Negotiated wages recorded only a moderate Negotiated first quarter as well, albeit on a much smaller rise in the first three months of 2021. Including wages up only moderately due scale. On the other hand, German enterprises additional benefits, they were up by just 1.4% to pandemic; actual earnings continued to benefit from dynamic foreign de- on the year in the first quarter. The increase in probably even mand and significantly increased their exports. the fourth quarter of 2020 had still stood at down 2.6%. The most recently concluded new agree- Fresh uptick in The depressed level of private consumer ex- ments were a key factor behind this weaken- German banks’ penditure also dampened demand for con- ing.
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