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Science Today, History Tomorrow COMMENT earthquakes, tsunamis and extreme weather. RIMES is innovative but its funding is limited, making it difficult to maintain the cadre of scientists necessary to tackle specific problems. Inadequate funding also hinders the essential updat- ing of forecast modules as satellite and global forecast systems change. M. ARGLES/GUARDIAN NEWS & MEDIA M. ARGLES/GUARDIAN GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS Partnerships that bridge the gap between the global forecasters and the user com- munity need to be established in other regions to address a range of weather hazards. The plan and type of group that forms the bridge will depend on the type of hazard being addressed. But the aim of each team is the same: to produce hazard- forecast modules based on the global fore- casts and to use them to provide warnings for the region. The team will also be responsible for updating the modules as systems and technologies change. Such partnerships can be aided by sustained funding from intergovern- mental organizations, such as the United Nations, the World Bank and USAID. My research group estimates that the cost of extended 10–15-day forecasts for south and east Asia for a wide range of hydrometeorological hazards (includ- ing slow-rise monsoon floods, droughts and tropical cyclones) is relatively small: perhaps $2 million to $3 million per year. Asia and Africa stand on the thresh- old of great economic advancement and can build resilience through the effective use of longer-range weather forecasts10. Faced with possible climate change, soci- eties that learn to cope with and mitigate hazards now will be most adept at dealing with more frequent and intense hazards in the future. ■ The correspondence of Francis Collins (left) and John Sulston illuminates a vital part of science history. Peter J. Webster is a professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA. e-mail: [email protected] Science today, 1. Webster, P. J. Nature Geosci. 1, 488–490 (2008). 2. Belanger, J. I., Webster, P. J., Curry, J. A. & Jelinek, M. T. Weather Forecast. 27, 757–769 (2012). 3. Hopson, T. M. & Webster, P. J. J. Hydrometeorol. history tomorrow 11, 618–641 (2010). 4. Webster, P. J. et al. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91, We must preserve the interactions of contemporary 1493–1514 (2010). 5. Webster P. J., Toma, V. E. & Kim, H.-M. researchers for future scholars, urges Georgina Ferry. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L04806 (2011). 6. Webster, P. J. & Hoyos, C. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 85, 1745–1765 (2004). 7. Stephens, G. L. et al. J. Clim. 17, 2213–2224 he year 1998 was crucial for the HGP was long planned and carefully (2004). Human Genome Project (HGP), an executed. In October that year, John Sulston, 8. Leutbecher, M. & Palmer, T. N. J. Comp. Phys. international collaboration launched then director of the Wellcome Trust Sanger 227, 3515–3539 (2008). Teight years before to sequence the complete Institute near Cambridge, UK, felt so 9. Teisberg, T. J. & Weiher, R. F. Background Paper on the Benefits and Costs of Early human genome. Spurred by the launch beleaguered that he sent a strongly worded Warning Systems for Major Natural Hazards of a privately financed sequencing bid by e-mail to Francis Collins, then director of (World Bank, 2009). Craig Venter, the HGP’s leaders decided the US National Human Genome Research 10. Foresight Reducing the Risks of Future Disasters: Priorities for Decision Makers (UK to accelerate their own efforts. Some of the Institute (NHGRI) in Bethesda, Maryland. Govt Office of Science, 2012). proposed changes caused friction — the The subject line? ‘Friendly fire’. 3 JANUARY 2013 | VOL 493 | NATURE | 19 © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved COMMENT For anyone interested in the history of the HGP, this e-mail is a key document (and one that was later acknowledged as an CERN/SPL ‘emotional outburst’ by its author, who now leads the Institute for Science, Ethics and Innovation at the University of Manchester, UK). Was it a catalyst for improved com- munication between the main players? Who helped to resolve the conflict? To what extent were the directors of the five leading sequencing centres competing as well as collaborating? The content of the e-mail traffic between and within the sequencing teams offers a potentially rich seam of enquiry. As the co-author of Sulston’s account of the HGP (The Common Thread; Joseph Henry Press, 2002), I saw this e-mail and many others, but they are not generally avail- able. That may change, thanks to an inter- national archiving programme now under way. The Wellcome Library in London is funding an archivist, Jenny Shaw, to sur- vey the documentary record relating to the HGP and earlier mapping and sequencing activities in the United Kingdom between 1977 and 2004. Ludmila Pollock, executive director of the library and archives at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL) in New York, is conducting a parallel exercise in the United States. The first objective is to cata- logue these materials. A longer-term aim — which will depend heavily on funding and the willingness of the scientific community to cooperate — is to secure them in reput­ able repositories and make them available to scholars. The programme throws into relief how fragile a trace modern science is leaving in the historical record. As a scientific biographer, I have spent hours happily immersed in piles of yellowing papers that are carefully stored in archive boxes and guarded by watchful Particle-accelerator building at CERN, which launched its archiving programme in 1979. custodians in academic libraries. Future bio­ graphers will not be as lucky. Today’s scientists represents only a fraction of the documents mid-1980s. underest­imate the historical importance of that record the HGP’s history. The genome- Comprehensive record-keeping is easier anything other than their published papers; sequencing story began before the NIH took a within a single institution. CERN, the they communicate almost entirely electroni- leading role, and it involved many institutions particle-physics laboratory near Geneva, cally; and funding for archival preservation and individuals — inside and outside the Switzerland, showed a commendable sense is increasingly uncertain. If we care about United States — for which the NIH had of its own historical significance when it com- documenting the astonishing discoveries of no responsibility. missioned a regularly updated biography in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, we There remains an urgent need to 1979, 25 years after it opened. Divisional must act now. reconstruct the ‘paper trails’ — often largely records officers at the facility now ensure electronic — that a smooth pipeline through to the central GOOD PRACTICE “It is difficult eventually led to the archives. The archivists encourage senior Why are archiving exercises such as the HGP’s to convince complete, publicly scientists to have their filing systems necessary? We are fortunate that Collins, who people that available sequence. appraised for historical interest, and they is now director of the US National Institutes their tweets These include a vast have a strategy for selecting and preserving of Health (NIH), kept his papers, and even and IMs are amount of e-mail e-mails. As the birthplace of the World Wide more fortunate that his successor at the the stuff of correspondence, as Web, CERN is also working to archive its own NHGRI, Eric Green, is employing an archi- history.” well as informal lit- web pages. vist to digitize them. The NHGRI is only erature such as The Scientific archives typically consist of now developing an archiving policy. Prev­ Worm Breeder’s Gazette (now exclusively institutional records such as CERN’s, and iously, says Green, ‘records administration’ online) and the software that Sulston and the personal papers of distinguished (and, at the institute meant throwing things away his colleague Richard Durbin wrote to usually, dead) scientists. When I wrote a that were ‘no longer needed’. But this material manage their genome-mapping data in the biography of the Nobel prizewinner Dorothy 20 | NATURE | VOL 493 | 3 JANUARY 2013 © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved COMMENT Hodgkin (1910–94), I relied heavily on her deciding to save our heritage,” exhorted to be convinced that efforts to acquire, store, collected papers, housed in the Bodleian Nobel prizewinner Sydney Brenner in 2007, catalogue and disseminate such records are Library at the University of Oxford, UK. in a letter announcing the donation of his essential to preserving our scientific heritage. Among them I found, for example, a letter papers to the CSHL archive (S. Brenner and In the United Kingdom, the funding dated June 1939, in which Hodgkin’s con- R. J. Roberts Nature 446, 725; 2007). Others situation is grim. The UK National temporary Dorothy Wrinch attempted — may ask why historians have any right see Cataloguing Unit for the Archives of unsuccessfully — to win sisterly solidarity material not in the published record. Sulston Contemporary Scientists had a 36-year for her erroneous theories on protein struc- himself, who is supportive of the archiving track record of seeking out and cataloguing ture (“Our chromosome count of course project, admits that “scientists can be quite the papers of British scientists before losing does not tend to weaken the desire of others conflicted about historical research, because its core funding and closing in 2009. A to attack us,” she wrote). it’s important to forget things and move on.” successor organization, the Centre for The history of science is much more than Scientific Archives (CSA), was established at FLEETING TWEETS a chronology of scientific facts and theories. a Science Museum store in Wroughton, UK, But it is increasingly difficult for such Access to informal sources is essential for the same year.
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