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Traffic and Revenue Forecast Update (Legacy Facilities)

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Traffic and Revenue Forecast Update (Legacy Facilities) Maryland Transportation Authority FY2020 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast Update (Legacy Facilities) FINAL REPORT October 28, 2019 Hatem Bridge (US 40) Kennedy Highway (I-95) Fort McHenry Tunnel (I-95) SM Harbor Tunnel (I-895) Maryland Transportation Key Bridge (I-695) Authority Nice/ Middleton Bridge (US 301) Bay Bridge (US 50/301) Table of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... ES-1 Historical Transaction and Revenue Trends ...................................................................................................... ES-1 Socioeconomic Review ................................................................................................................................................ ES-4 Forecast of Traffic and Revenue .............................................................................................................................. ES-5 Forecast Comparison .................................................................................................................................................... ES-9 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 System Description and History ......................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1.1 System Description .................................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1.2 Toll Rate Structure and History ............................................................................................................ 1-3 1.2 Report Structure ....................................................................................................................................................... 1-9 2. Historical Traffic and Revenue Trends .......................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Regional Traffic Review ......................................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Vehicle Miles Traveled .............................................................................................................................. 2-1 2.1.2 Historical Traffic on Other Major Highways .................................................................................... 2-2 2.2 MDTA Toll Transaction and In-Lane Revenue Trends ............................................................................. 2-6 2.2.1 Short-Term Traffic and Revenue Impacts ........................................................................................ 2-8 2.2.2 Thomas J. Hatem Memorial Bridge ...................................................................................................... 2-8 2.2.3 John F. Kennedy Memorial Highway .................................................................................................2-10 2.2.4 Baltimore Harbor Tunnel ......................................................................................................................2-12 2.2.5 Fort McHenry Tunnel ..............................................................................................................................2-12 2.2.6 Francis Scott Key Bridge ........................................................................................................................2-15 2.2.7 William Preston Lane Jr. Memorial (Bay) Bridge ........................................................................2-17 2.2.8 Governor Harry W. Nice/ Senator Thomas “Mac” Middleton Memorial Bridge ............2-17 2.2.9 MDTA Legacy Facilities Total ...............................................................................................................2-20 2.2.10 Vehicle Class Distribution ...................................................................................................................2-20 2.2.11 E-ZPass® Market Share ........................................................................................................................2-22 3. Socioeconomic Review ................................................................................................. 3-1 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 3-1 3.2 Socioeconomic Variables ....................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2.1 Population ...................................................................................................................................................... 3-3 3.2.2 Employment .................................................................................................................................................. 3-4 3.2.3 Unemployment ............................................................................................................................................. 3-6 3.2.4 Real Income Per Capita ............................................................................................................................. 3-6 3.2.5 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ................................................................................................... 3-8 3.2.6 Inflation ........................................................................................................................................................... 3-9 3.2.7 Fuel Prices ....................................................................................................................................................3-11 3.3 Summary of Risks and Conclusion ..................................................................................................................3-12 4. Traffic and Revenue Forecast ....................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecasts ................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1.1 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast Model ......................................................................................... 4-1 4.1.1.1 Toll Rates and Fee Adjustments .............................................................................................. 4-2 i Table of Contents • 4.1.1.2 Normal Traffic Growth ................................................................................................................ 4-2 4.1.1.3 Planned Roadway Improvements .......................................................................................... 4-3 4.1.1.4 Baltimore Harbor Tunnel (I-895) Construction Impacts ............................................. 4-4 4.2 Basic Assumptions .................................................................................................................................................... 4-4 4.3 Transaction and In-Lane Toll Revenue Forecasts ....................................................................................... 4-5 4.3.1 Impacts of Classification and Payment Type Toll Rate Changes ............................................. 4-5 4.3.2 Annual Transactions and In-Lane Toll Revenue by Facility ...................................................... 4-6 4.3.2.1 John F. Kennedy Memorial Highway (I-95) ........................................................................ 4-6 4.3.2.2 Thomas J. Hatem Memorial Bridge ........................................................................................ 4-7 4.3.2.3 Baltimore Harbor Tunnel ........................................................................................................ 4-10 4.3.2.4 Fort McHenry Tunnel ................................................................................................................ 4-10 4.3.2.5 Francis Scott Key Bridge .......................................................................................................... 4-13 4.3.2.6 William Preston Lane Jr. Memorial (Bay) Bridge .......................................................... 4-13 4.3.2.7 Governor Harry W. Nice/ Senator Thomas “Mac” Middleton Memorial Bridge ............................................................................................................................................................. 4-16 4.3.3 Systemwide Annual Transactions and In-Lane Toll Revenue Forecasts .......................... 4-16 4.4 Other Revenue ......................................................................................................................................................... 4-19 4.4.1 Unused Commuter and Shoppers Plan Trips ............................................................................... 4-19 4.4.2 Transponder Fees and Sales ................................................................................................................ 4-19 4.4.3 Hatem E-ZPass Program ........................................................................................................................ 4-21 4.4.4 Violation Recovery ................................................................................................................................... 4-21 4.4.5 Commercial Vehicles Fees and Discounts ...................................................................................... 4-21
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