Maryland Transportation Authority FY2020 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast Update (Legacy Facilities) FINAL REPORT October 28, 2019 Hatem Bridge (US 40) Kennedy Highway (I-95) Fort McHenry Tunnel (I-95) SM Harbor Tunnel (I-895) Maryland Transportation Key Bridge (I-695) Authority Nice/ Middleton Bridge (US 301) Bay Bridge (US 50/301) Table of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... ES-1 Historical Transaction and Revenue Trends ...................................................................................................... ES-1 Socioeconomic Review ................................................................................................................................................ ES-4 Forecast of Traffic and Revenue .............................................................................................................................. ES-5 Forecast Comparison .................................................................................................................................................... ES-9 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 System Description and History ......................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1.1 System Description .................................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1.2 Toll Rate Structure and History ............................................................................................................ 1-3 1.2 Report Structure ....................................................................................................................................................... 1-9 2. Historical Traffic and Revenue Trends .......................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Regional Traffic Review ......................................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Vehicle Miles Traveled .............................................................................................................................. 2-1 2.1.2 Historical Traffic on Other Major Highways .................................................................................... 2-2 2.2 MDTA Toll Transaction and In-Lane Revenue Trends ............................................................................. 2-6 2.2.1 Short-Term Traffic and Revenue Impacts ........................................................................................ 2-8 2.2.2 Thomas J. Hatem Memorial Bridge ...................................................................................................... 2-8 2.2.3 John F. Kennedy Memorial Highway .................................................................................................2-10 2.2.4 Baltimore Harbor Tunnel ......................................................................................................................2-12 2.2.5 Fort McHenry Tunnel ..............................................................................................................................2-12 2.2.6 Francis Scott Key Bridge ........................................................................................................................2-15 2.2.7 William Preston Lane Jr. Memorial (Bay) Bridge ........................................................................2-17 2.2.8 Governor Harry W. Nice/ Senator Thomas “Mac” Middleton Memorial Bridge ............2-17 2.2.9 MDTA Legacy Facilities Total ...............................................................................................................2-20 2.2.10 Vehicle Class Distribution ...................................................................................................................2-20 2.2.11 E-ZPass® Market Share ........................................................................................................................2-22 3. Socioeconomic Review ................................................................................................. 3-1 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 3-1 3.2 Socioeconomic Variables ....................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2.1 Population ...................................................................................................................................................... 3-3 3.2.2 Employment .................................................................................................................................................. 3-4 3.2.3 Unemployment ............................................................................................................................................. 3-6 3.2.4 Real Income Per Capita ............................................................................................................................. 3-6 3.2.5 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ................................................................................................... 3-8 3.2.6 Inflation ........................................................................................................................................................... 3-9 3.2.7 Fuel Prices ....................................................................................................................................................3-11 3.3 Summary of Risks and Conclusion ..................................................................................................................3-12 4. Traffic and Revenue Forecast ....................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecasts ................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1.1 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast Model ......................................................................................... 4-1 4.1.1.1 Toll Rates and Fee Adjustments .............................................................................................. 4-2 i Table of Contents • 4.1.1.2 Normal Traffic Growth ................................................................................................................ 4-2 4.1.1.3 Planned Roadway Improvements .......................................................................................... 4-3 4.1.1.4 Baltimore Harbor Tunnel (I-895) Construction Impacts ............................................. 4-4 4.2 Basic Assumptions .................................................................................................................................................... 4-4 4.3 Transaction and In-Lane Toll Revenue Forecasts ....................................................................................... 4-5 4.3.1 Impacts of Classification and Payment Type Toll Rate Changes ............................................. 4-5 4.3.2 Annual Transactions and In-Lane Toll Revenue by Facility ...................................................... 4-6 4.3.2.1 John F. Kennedy Memorial Highway (I-95) ........................................................................ 4-6 4.3.2.2 Thomas J. Hatem Memorial Bridge ........................................................................................ 4-7 4.3.2.3 Baltimore Harbor Tunnel ........................................................................................................ 4-10 4.3.2.4 Fort McHenry Tunnel ................................................................................................................ 4-10 4.3.2.5 Francis Scott Key Bridge .......................................................................................................... 4-13 4.3.2.6 William Preston Lane Jr. Memorial (Bay) Bridge .......................................................... 4-13 4.3.2.7 Governor Harry W. Nice/ Senator Thomas “Mac” Middleton Memorial Bridge ............................................................................................................................................................. 4-16 4.3.3 Systemwide Annual Transactions and In-Lane Toll Revenue Forecasts .......................... 4-16 4.4 Other Revenue ......................................................................................................................................................... 4-19 4.4.1 Unused Commuter and Shoppers Plan Trips ............................................................................... 4-19 4.4.2 Transponder Fees and Sales ................................................................................................................ 4-19 4.4.3 Hatem E-ZPass Program ........................................................................................................................ 4-21 4.4.4 Violation Recovery ................................................................................................................................... 4-21 4.4.5 Commercial Vehicles Fees and Discounts ...................................................................................... 4-21