JANUARY 2021 Image of power Power of an image REPORT ON PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS IN LATIN AMERICA NOVEMBER -DECEMBER 2020 IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE 2020 Summary A year that signaled a turning point in modern This return to the pre-pandemic status helps history has ended. explain why debates and conflicts that are not directly related to or caused by With it came a deepening of existing coronavirus - though may have attracted challenges for governments not only in terms attention because of it - have similarly of health but at the economic and social resurfaced recently. levels, too. The first two months - March and April - had the effect of immediately bolstering The last two months of the year ended with the image of Latin America’s presidents, an exponential growth in the number of Covid though survey data indicates this has not, for cases in almost all countries in the region, the most part, been sustained over time. including Uruguay. The situation confronts governments with tough decisions on In the context of uncertainty this year, public whether to reintroduce restrictive public opinion initially favored governments taking health measures in parallel to organizing active preventive measures. In some cases, their vaccination programs. this helped temporarily ease tensions with opposition forces. Interestingly, the reverse In eight countries, these decisions will be happened in countries such as Mexico or taken amid the runup to elections. Brazil whose approaches in the face of the Throughout 2021, Chile, Ecuador, Honduras, pandemic were far more lax. Nicaragua and Peru will appoint a new president, while in Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, As months passed, however, the deepening El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua and social and economic price of those pursuing Peru, legislative powers are set to be totally or more hands-on measures eroded citizens' partially renewed. expectations and support. As a result, approval ratings of their Presidents have gradually fallen back to their pre-outbreak levels, with the exception of Lacalle Pou in Uruguay and Duque in Colombia who remain more popular. Contents Presidential image ranking How does the public view the work of the How did the image of presidents evolve in regions’ Congresses? 2020? Highlighted cases of this issue: Colombia, Which presidents improved in the polls Brazil, Peru, Venezuela, Mexico and compared to September-October? Argentina How does support for the presidents Elections in 2021: Ecuador and El Salvador compare with pre-pandemic levels? Methodological notes 2 IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE Presidential Image Ranking Positive November - December 2020 Negative EL SALVADOR 93% Nayib Bukele 6% DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 78% Luis Abinader 8% MEXICO 61% Andrés López Obrador 34% URUGUAY 60%* Luis Lacalle Pou 20%* COLOMBIA 56% Iván Duque 39% PARAGUAY 50%* Mario Abdo Benítez 44%* ARGENTINA 49% Alberto Fernández 48% PERU 49% Francisco Sagasti 32% BRAZIL 37% Jair Bolsonaro 34% COSTA RICA 32% Carlos Alvarado 46% CHILE 14% Sebastián Piñera 75% VENEZUELA 14%* Nicolás Maduro 82%* ECUADOR 11% Lenín Moreno 84% Source: Author' s own elaboration based on a compilation of public opinion surveys carried out between November and December. (*) Based on a single data source. To see the sources, click here. 3 IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE How did the image of presidents evolve in 2020? Positive January - December 2020 Negative JAN> MAR> MAY> JUL> SEP> NOV> JAN> MAR> MAY> JUL> SEP> NOV> FEB APR JUN AGO OCT DEC FEB APR JUN AGO OCT DEC 80% 67% ARGENTINA 55% 55% 49% 49% MEXICO 63% 61% 53% 50% 53% 54% Alberto 27% Andrés Manuel Fernández 17% 38% 44% 48% 48% 31% López Obrador 45% 41% 42% 35% 34% BRAZIL 51% 53% NICARAGUA 39% 41% 43% 37% *42% *59% 51% Jair Bolsonaro Daniel Ortega 43% 36% 30% 29% 36% 34% *27% *30% 32% 82% *63% 71% 72% 75% CHILE 67% 70% PANAMA *40% Sebastián Piñera Laurentino Cortizo 23% 21% 21% 19% 14% 10% *14% *29% *61% *63% *50% COLOMBIA 63% PARAGUAY 57% 52% 54% 56% 49% Mario Abdo Benítez 32% Iván Duque 33% 34% *44% 46% 41% 40% 39% *37% *30% 28% *65% PERU 49% COSTA RICA 56% 50% 46% *40% Carlos Alvarado 39% Francisco Sagasti *14% ** *28% 31% 36% 35% 32% 32% 86% *90% 84% 71% 78% ECUADOR 64% 70% DOMINICAN 72% REPUBLIC Lenín Moreno 23% 16% 15% Luis Abinader 13% *7% 11% 8% 28% 96% 88% 91% *84% *92% 93% EL SALVADOR URUGUAY *65% 61% 61% *60% *53% 58% Nayib Bukele Luis Lacalle Pou *22% *20% 22% 17% 17% *20% 8% 3% 8% *6% 6% *87% GUATEMALA *82% *64% VENEZUELA *83% *56% 61% *57% *56% Alejandro 43% Nicolás Maduro Giammattei *13% *15% *14% *15% *12% *14% *37% 33% 39% HONDURAS 50% 49% 42% Juan Orlando Hernández 42% 41% 37% Source: Author's own elaboration based on a compilation of public opinion surveys carried out between Jan and October. The empty points correspond to periods when no data is available. *Based on a single data source. (**) He took office on 11/17/2020. To see the sources click here. 4 IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE Which presidents improved in the polls compared to September-October? November - December 2020 DOMINICAN MEXICO REPUBLIC HONDURAS GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA PANAMA COSTA RICA VENEZUELA COLOMBIA ECUADOR PERU BRAZIL BOLIVIA PARAGUAY CHILE Evolution of the level of support in URUGUAY ARGENTINA relation to the period September-October The level of support dropped by more than 3% The level of support raised by more than 3% The level of support remained +/- 3% Source: Author's own elaboration based on a compilation of public opinion surveys carried out between September and December. To see the sources: click here 5 IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE How does support for the presidents compare with pre-pandemic levels? January- December 2020 Citizens’ changing support shows that most presidents today are at levels close to those before the outbreak - with some exceptions. Support level in relation to Sep-Oct Raised Did not change Dropped N/D Iván Duque ) 20 (Colombia) % n i ( <50% positive image b e F - Above pre-pandemic n a support levels J o t 10 d Daniel Ortega e r (Nicaragua) a p Luis Lacalle Pou Nayib Bukele m o (Uruguay) (El Salvador) c Carlos Alvarado l Sebastián Piñera Juan Orlando e (Costa Rica) v (Chile) Hernández e l 0 t Nicolás (Honduras) r o Maduro p p Lenín (Venezuela) Jair Bolsonaro AMLO u s Moreno (Brazil) (Mexico) n i (Ecuador) Alberto e c Fernández n e (Argentina) r -10 e f f Alejandro i D Giammattei (Guatemala) Below pre-pandemic support levels 0 20 40 60 80 100 Current favorable image (in %) Luis Lacalle Pou (Uruguay) and Iván Duque (Colombia) are still far ahead (7 points or more beyond their pre-pandemic level). Alberto Fernandez (Argentina) is 6 points below but has slowed his decline in the last two months. Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil) has also lost ground lately but remains above pre-pandemic levels, while Manuel López Obrador’s popularity has risen to his January- February values. Another 4 presidents managed to maintain relatively stable levels of support since March: Nayib Bukele (El Salvador), Juan Orlando Hernández (Honduras), Luis Lacalle Pou (Uruguay) and Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela). Source: Author's own elaboration based on a compilation of public opinion surveys carried out between January and 6 December. (*) To see the sources: click here IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE How does the public view the work of the regions’ Congresses? November - December 2020 On average, only 1 in 6 people approve of the work of their representatives in Congress. This year there will be legislative elections in eight countries of the region. In Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Peru, legislative powers will be renewed in their entirety. In Mexico and Chile, only the Chamber of Deputies will change, though in the case of Chile 27 new senators will be appointed. In Argentina, half of the Chamber of Deputies and one third of the Senate will be renewed. Argentina 20%* 72%* Brazil 12% 39% Chile 25% Colombia 22%* 66%* Ecuador 5%* 86%* El Salvador 26%* 67%* Peru 13% 84% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Approval Disapproval Source: Author's own elaboration based on a compilation of public opinion surveys carried out between November and 7 December. (*) To see the sources: click here IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE Highlighted cases of this issue BRAZIL The image of Bolsonaro takes a downward turn for the first time since mid-year "Brazil is broke, I can't do anything," said the President this month. His approval levels, which had been growing since May- June, fell on average 9% compared to the previous two-month period. Although support from the middle classes weakened throughout the year, in recent months this was offset by more working class support following the provision of emergency relief subsidies. However, the scaling back of this support (by 50%) combined with the decision not to renew subsidies to companies for the payment of wages, all amid rising COVID-19 cases and criticism of the government’s environmental policies, dented Bolsonaro’s image. At the political level, the sub-national elections of 2020 proved a setback for the government, particularly in Rio de Janeiro, the stronghold of Bolsonaro, where the allied mayor Marcelo Crivella lost at the hands of former mayor Eduardo Paes. The forecasts for the election of the President of the Chamber of Deputies, to be held in February, are not favorable either. COLOMBIA 2020 ends with an upturn in Duque’s image The approval level recovered the July-August values, reaching peaks of 56% at the end of November according to the pollster CNC.