Urban Vulnerability Assessment Report

Panaji City, India

Urban Vulnerability Assessment: Panaji City, India

Authors: Sunandan Tiwari, Snigdha Garg & Meesha Tandon

ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, South Asia Ground Floor, NSIC Bhavan, STP Building, Okhla Industrial Estate New Delhi 110 020 INDIA [email protected] www.iclei.org/sa

March 2013 Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Table of Contents 1. Introduction ...... 5 1.1 About the Urban Vulnerability Assessment project ...... 5

2. Methodology & Approach ...... 7

3. City Profile ...... 11

4. Stakeholder Mapping & Engagement ...... 12

5. Climate Scenario...... 14 5.1 Past climatic data ...... 14 5.2 Future Climatic Projections ...... 15

6. Vulnerability Assessment of the city ...... 17 6.1 Identifying key vulnerabilities ...... 18 6.3 Vulnerable Areas ...... 26 6.4 Identification of key actors ...... 29

7. Resilience Interventions ...... 33

8. Conclusions ...... 36

9. Next Steps ...... 36

References ...... 39

Annex 1: Stakeholder Matrix ...... 40 Annex 2: Risk Assessment ...... 41 Annex 3: Analysis of Vulnerable Areas & Urban Actors ...... 43 Annex 4: List of Participants at the SLD ...... 45

List of Tables Table 1: General Information on Panaji ...... 11 Table 2: Stakeholder mapping for Panaji city ...... 13 Table 3: Risk assessment results before discussion ...... 25 Table 4: Risk assessment results after discussion ...... 26 Table 5: Actors analysis ...... 30 Table 6: Resilience Interventions ...... 33

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List of Figures Figure 1: ICLEI’s UVA Process ...... 8 Figure 2: Map of Panaji ...... 11 Figure 3: Trends in variation of temperature and rainfall in Panaji (1964-2000) ...... 14 Figure 4: Percentage of GDP at Risk in the Panaji area due to 1m Sea-level Rise (Source: http://cigrasp.pik-potsdam.de/worldmap) ...... 16 Figure 5: Number of people at Risk of migration in the Panaji area due to 1m Sea-level Rise (Source: http://cigrasp.pik-potsdam.de/worldmap) ...... 16 Figure 6: Potential land loss (in ha.) in the Panaji area due to 1m Sea-level Rise (Source: http://cigrasp.pik-potsdam.de/worldmap) ...... 16 Figure 7: Seven key zones of Panaji...... 18 Figure 8: Map showing Salt Water Intrusion ...... 19 Figure 9: Google earth image showing the beaches near St. Inez in 2003 ...... 20 Figure 10: Google earth image showing the beaches near St. Inez in 2010 ...... 20 Figure 11: Depth to Ground Water, North Goa District, Ground Water Information Booklet .... 22 Figure 11: Map showing areas vulnerable to salt water intrusion, Beach formation, Loss of mangroves and land reclamation ...... 27 Figure 12: Map showing areas vulnerable to loss of sand dunes, lack of sewerage network and siltation of storm water drains ...... 27 Figure 13: Map showing areas vulnerable to health issues, contamination of river water, and reclamation of area of Mala Lake ...... 28 Figure 14: Vulnerability Hotspots ...... 28 Figure 15: Climate resilience building pathway ...... 37

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

1. Introduction

Asia is arguably among the regions of the world most vulnerable to climate change. Climate change and climatic variability have impacted and will continue to impact all sectors, from national and economic security to human health, food production, infrastructure, water availability and ecosystems. The evidence of climate change in Asia is widespread: overall temperatures have risen from 1°C to 3°C over the last 100 years, precipitation patterns have changed, the number and intensity of extreme weather events is increasing, and sea levels are rising. Asia is also witnessing a relentless spread of human settlements in low lying, flood prone coastal zones against the growing risk of disasters related to climate change. It is in particular the urban poor living in hazardous areas, who are vulnerable to climate change impacts, with the most vulnerable being women, children and the elderly.

Cities as centres of economic activities cater to half of the world’s population – and this share is growing. Not only as centers of growth but also as major consumers of resources, urban areas are one of the major emitters of greenhouse gases. On the other hand, these global emissions are leading to climate change and variability causing adverse impacts at the local level in terms of disruptions and damages to physical, social, economic, and environmental systems. Cities are therefore both the cause and the victims of climate change impacts.

Local governments are responsible for the decisions and actions that determine the provisioning of services to its citizens. One of the most direct influences that local governments have on the poor is their provision of water, sanitation, drainage, solid waste collection, public health and housing construction and improvement. However, increasing demands of growing urban populations are stretching the limits of urban infrastructure and systems, and thereby the provisioning of these basic services with detrimental impacts on the well being local communities, especially the poor. Further, climate change impacts such as higher frequency and intensity precipitation, floods, drought or heat stress can disrupt the infrastructure and systems in place for ensuring the provision of such services or even make them dysfunctional. For example, unexpected heat stresses can take unprepared citizens by surprise and overwhelm public health systems. Similarly, floods can substantially damage the infrastructure of cities and disrupt the provision of basic services such as freshwater, thereby triggering increased morbidity in several cases. These climate events therefore increase the vulnerability of a city’s population especially that of low-income groups, the elderly, the sick and disabled, and children. To fully and effectively face these threats requires an improved understanding of the vulnerabilities to climate change – who or what is vulnerable to what and why. Important decisions with regard to resource allocation, infrastructural design, and systems for provisioning of services need to be made appropriately.

1.1 About the Urban Vulnerability Assessment project

Relevance:

According to a recent ICLEI – MIT survey conducted in 2011, the majority of local governments understand the need to undertake an urban vulnerability assessment but while many (39% of the surveyed cities) have either completed or were completing this process, the majority has yet to undertake such an assessment. Acknowledging this need and the importance of undertaking an urban vulnerability assessment process as a first step towards the planning and implementation of an urban adaptation and resilience strategy, ICLEI, with support from the German Development Cooperation (GIZ), undertook the Urban Vulnerability Assessment (UVA) project.

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

The project builds on the results of the Study of existing frameworks and methodologies for Urban Vulnerability Assessments (UVA) / Urban Risk Assessments (URA) including recommendations for the German Development Cooperation, realized by the GIZ Sector Project Urban Development Policy Advice. In particular, Framework 11 (the Rockefeller Foundation Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN)) was explored. This method has a very strong focus on stakeholder engagement and participation and on poverty and social development. ICLEI has enhanced this by making it more concrete for local government officials and creating ICLEI’s urban vulnerability assessment methodology.

Scope:

The Urban Vulnerability Assessment project had two main components, namely:

1. A summary overview of the methodologies most commonly used by local governments in this field was developed

2. Implement ICLEI’s UVA methodology in the two selected pilot cities viz. Panaji in India and Barisal in Bangladesh.

This report forms part of the implementation of the ICLEI UVA methodology in Panaji.

Aim of the project:

The overall aim of this project was to provide a solid understanding, policy and action recommendations to motivate and capacitate many more cities to start such urban vulnerability processes and to guide them in their first steps in a direction which will more easily allow the direct use of vulnerability assessments for subsequent adaptation and resilience planning.

Specific objectives:

The specific objectives of implementing ICLEI’s UVA methodology in two South Asian cities were:

 Identification of specific climate impacts and related vulnerabilities in terms of geographical areas and urban actors in the cities.  Identification of prioritized urban systems or sectors for future action which will help the city to develop climate resilience  Recommend detailed studies on critical urban systems or sectors identified through the vulnerability assessment  Identification of possible measures to be taken to reduce vulnerability of critical urban systems and sectors  Identification of possible partnerships for the Municipal Corporation to carry out further detailed studies or future actions for improvement of climate resilience, through local stakeholder engagement.  Draw on the experience of implementing ICLEI’s UVA methodology to define policy and action recommendations to enable cities to plan and work towards building climate resilience  While working towards achieving these objectives, developing synergies with ongoing initiatives of the German Development Cooperation in Bangladesh and India and at its headquarters in

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Eschborn/Germany was also attempted (this is discussed further in the Methodology Section below). This report is the result of a collaboration between the Corporation of the City of Panaji (CCP) and ICLEI South Asia to implement ICLEI’s UVA methodology and presents the urban vulnerability assessment for the city of Panaji. It is divided into seven sections that cover: the methodology adopted, a brief profile of the city, a mapping of key and relevant local stakeholders, an analysis of past and projected climate scenarios, an assessment of who and what are vulnerable in the city, an initial list of adaptation actions that can be undertaken, and finally a list of potential next steps that can be undertaken to contribute towards the city’s resilience building efforts.

2. Methodology & Approach

The methodology adopted for this assessment builds on several years of ICLEI’s international experience in climate change adaptation work. It specifically draws on the urban vulnerability assessment component of the ICLEI ACCCRN Process, a toolkit developed with support from Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) program, by ICLEI South Asia in partnership with ICLEI Oceania.

The key steps of the methodology and approach are depicted in the figure below. As can be seen in the process diagram, the first two steps are driven by the city government and from the third step onwards the process is expected to become a joint effort by the city government and the local stakeholders. Each of the steps of the process is described below.

Step 1 - The initial and critical step was to secure the interest and commitment of the Engagement: city government to undertake an Urban Vulnerability Assessment that it would drive with support from ICLEI South Asia. This involved getting the approval of the key decision maker within the city to undertake this exercise.

Since the UVA process is centred on active stakeholder engagement, an identification of key stakeholders using a Stakeholder Matrix (see Annexe 1) for the formation of the stakeholder group that would participate in implementing the assessment was undertaken. Broadly, the stakeholder groups included: government, local NGOs, development organisations, academia, local community representatives and the private sector and they were categorised according to:

1. Those potentially able to develop climate resilience actions at the community level 2. Those potentially able to develop climate resilience actions at city and/or policy level 3. Those whose support will be essential to climate resilience actions at different levels (community, city) 4. Those most affected by climate resilience actions developed or supported by other groups

This categorisation enabled the initial mapping of the stakeholders according to the potential role(s) that they could play in climate resilience building within the city.

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UVA Report:  Compilation of the information generated into a city report for further action by City Engagement: Government & Stakeholders Process driven by  Interest and commitment from the the City city to undertake a UVA secured Government  Stakeholder mapping

Second Stakeholder Engagement:  Discussion and agreement on Scoping: critical climate risks & associated  Desktop review of existing vulnerabilities information/data available on socio-  Risk assessment to identify economic status, sectoral studies, ‘extreme’ and ‘high’ vulnerabilities / plans, policies and maps impacts  Assessment of climate change  Identification of areas and social projections at the lowest scale groups vulnerable to the extreme/ available

high risk impacts  Identification and interaction with  Preliminary identification of potential Development Organisations working responses to the impacts that build in the city resilience  Identification of sectors that require more detailed review Initial Stakeholder Engagement:  Presentation of UVA initiative  Discussion on learning from ‘Scoping’ and value addition Process driven by the  Participatory Hazard Timeline City Government & development Stakeholders  Preliminary listing of vulnerabilities i.e. impacts due to natural hazards and the urbanisation process

Figure 1: ICLEI’s UVA Process

Step 2 - Desktop review of existing information / data available on socio-economic Scoping: status, sectoral studies, relevant policies, plans, and maps

Climate projections available (local / regional): in the absence of city level projections, higher level climate projections (e.g. regional) were used to identify expected trends

Identification and interactions with Development Organisations working in the city Step 3 – A stakeholder consultation methodology referred to as Shared Learning Stakeholder Dialogues (SLDs) was adopted to engage not only various departments within Engagement: the city government but also other local stakeholders. SLDs facilitate multi dimensional information sharing with everyone contributing information and experiences, and everyone learning from the exchanges as well. It helps to break down traditional boundaries between government, academic and community actors and to conduct the process in an open manner. Finally, the

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process is iterative, with several opportunities for members to meet and take their thinking to the next level. The objectives of using SLDs as a process for stakeholder consultations was to:  Engage key stakeholders in the process of identifying critical climate risks and evolving potential responses that build resilience  Engage vulnerable groups  Compile and make accessible relevant local information sources  Overcome differences in knowledge, understanding, and awareness of climate change impacts across scales and sectors to develop a common understanding  Build understanding of divergent interests of stakeholders  Build ownership among stakeholders necessary for the successful implementation of the identified responses to the climate vulnerabilities

Two SLDs were organised and all the stakeholders identified in Step 1 were invited by the City Corporation to participate. Specific tools developed as part of the ICLEI ACCCRN Process were used to facilitate discussions and information sharing at the SLDs.

Step 3.1: Initial Stakeholder Engagement This initial shared learning process was undertaken once the Steps 1 and 2 were completed and the city preliminary information to share with the stakeholders that had been identified. This consultation covered the following points:

a) Introduction of the UVA initiative undertaken by the city government b) Information from the ‘scoping’ exercise presented to stakeholders and their inputs solicited and compiled c) Identification of hazard events that the city has faced in the past: participatory timeline approach and recall method were used here d) Preliminary listing of the cities vulnerabilities i.e. impacts due to natural hazards and the urbanisation process

An open format was adopted in which the project and preliminary findings were shared following which group exercises to identify the hazards that the city has faced in the past and the cities vulnerabilities were undertaken

Step 3.2: Second Stakeholder Engagement Once the learning from Steps 1 to 3.1 had been compiled a second shared learning workshop was organised by the city corporation. a) Identification and agreement of critical climate risks b) Discussions and agreement of current and potential impacts of climate risks on vulnerable sectors and groups c) Risk assessment: of the identified impacts based on ‘likelihood’ and ‘consequence’ scoring was undertaken. Risk was assessed based on the formula: Risk = Likelihood x Consequence. The impacts were then categorised as ‘High’, ‘Medium’, and ‘Low’ based on the score. The ‘Extreme’ (and ‘High’ and at times ‘Medium’) risk impacts were selected for further assessment. Please see Annexe 2 for further details. d) Vulnerability assessment (areas and social groups): based on the

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

identified ‘extreme’ and ‘high’ (and ‘medium’) risk impacts, the areas affected by each of these impacts were identified on a city map and all the affected or involved stakeholders (or urban actors) were listed. For each impact, the ‘adaptive capacity score’ for each urban actor was assessed and scored based on ‘responsiveness’, ‘resourcefulness’ and ‘capacity to learn’ (see Annexe 3 for further details) e) Identification of potential responses to the impacts that build resilience f) Identification of additional supporting data / information that may be available with different stakeholders g) Identification of sectors that require more detailed review as well potential agencies / organisations that could potentially undertake these reviews

For the risk and vulnerability assessments as well as identification of potential responses participants were divided into heterogeneous stakeholder groups each of which discussed the same issue (e.g. each group assigned a Risk Score for each of the climate impacts). This provided an opportunity to every group to present their results, and for everyone to jointly debate and finalise the outputs of the exercise. This approach helped generate greater discussions and consensus building on the resultant outputs.

The other points listed above were discussed and finalised in an open forum. Step 4 – UVA The information generated in steps 1- 3 were then compiled into a city report Report: for further action by City Government & Stakeholders. The open loop beyond this step in the diagram above signifies the continuous action and learning characteristic of the urban vulnerability assessment process

The project was also discussed with the regional GIZ offices in India and Bangladesh and heir inputs included. Point persons in both the regional offices were appointed for this project who were provided with updates and were invited to participate in the Shared Learning Dialogues.

In order to facilitate the implementation of the urban vulnerability assessment a nodal person from within the city corporation was appointed to coordinate the project in collaboration with the ICLEI South Asia. The city nodal person was responsible for:

 Driving the implementation of the key steps of the UVA process and tracking the city’s progress  Facilitating communication and engagement with the stakeholder group and organising stakeholder consultations  Facilitating the necessary data collection from various departments and other sources

The Officer on Special Duty / Municipal Engineer (OSD/ME) of the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission Cell (JNNURM Cell) was appointed as the nodal person by the City Corporation of Panaji in this regard. The following sections discuss the outputs of the application of this methodology and approach in the city of Panaji, India.

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3. City Profile

The city of Panaji is located along the West Coast of India along the Arabian Sea and is a part of the Tiswadi Taluka in the northern part of the State of Goa. The city is bound by the Arabian Sea along the South West, Mandovi River along the North and West and Zuari River towards the South East. The city also has 2 Creeks: Querem Creek on the east and St. Inez Creek along the West. The city has a rich wealth of mangroves on the backwaters entering the Querem Creek, St. Inez Creek, Mandovi River and Zuari Figure 2: Map of Panaji River. Goa receives an average annual rainfall of 2932 mm, largely spread over the monsoon months (June to September). The main occupation in the city is tourism and agriculture. The state is famous nationally and internationally for coastal tourism. The key crops grown in Goa are paddy, cereals (millets/pulses and oil seeds), sugarcane, coconut, areca nut and cashew nut. Irrigation is largely through surface flow irrigation (3972 ha), dug wells (1867.91 ha) and Canals (1149.40 ha). The table below provides a quick overview of the city of Panaji.

Table 1: General Information on Panaji District North Goa

Area 8.2 sq. km. No. of Wards 30 Height above mean sea level 7 meters Proximity to the sea 0 km Demography

Total Population 59 066 Male 29911 Female 29155 F/M ratio (per 1000) 975 Number of Households 13581 Average household size 4.35 Population Density 7212 persons/sq. km. Population of minority groups 2.38% Scheduled Caste and 0.01% Scheduled Tribe Number of individuals immigrating into the city 2658 per year Domestic tourist population (per annum) 363 000 International tourist population (per annum) 38 000 Literacy

Average literacy rate 80% Male literacy rate 83.5%

Female literacy rate 76.42%

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Economy

Annual growth rate 2.6% Employment rates (%) 39.24% Main worker population 21761 (93.89% ) Marginal worker population 1416 (6.11%) Nature of occupation Cultivators, Agricultural labor, workers in HH industries, trade and commerce, industries etc. Primary occupation Trade and commerce Occupational pattern Cultivators – 49 (0.23 %) Agricultural labor – 135 (0.58%) Workers in HH industries – 372 (1.61%) Others – 22621 (97.6%) ** The data provided has been taken from 2001 Census of India1

4. Stakeholder Mapping & Engagement

Stakeholders form the central component of this urban vulnerability assessment process. The stakeholder mapping exercise was undertaken jointly by the city nodal person and other city officials selected by the nodal person and facilitated by ICLEI South Asia team. Stakeholders included government, local NGOs, development organisations, academia, local community representatives and the private sector and they were categorised according to:

The matrix below (Table 2) identifies and categorizes key stakeholders in Panaji who can participate and influence the process resilience building in the city as well those who would be affected by the existing and projected vulnerabilities. Institutions are repeated in two or more categories in order record the multiple roles that they do or can play in resilience building. Invitations were sent to all these institutions to participate in the shared learning dialogues and in several cases face-to-face meetings were also organised.

The institutions marked in red are those that eventually did participate in the consultation process. Despite the various efforts by the city corporation and the ICLEI team, getting stakeholders together to participate in the UVA process has clearly been a challenge (a list of participants at the stakeholder consultation is provided in Annex 4). The higher levels of participation from government agencies (city and other line departments) demonstrate their commitment to the assessment, while the academia that can play a significant supporting role is missing. There are few NGOs working in Panaji and Amchi Panjim represents the major civil society force working at the local level as well as the concerns of the marginalized communities. Another key actor – the private sector – also had very limited participation.

1 Census of India 2001, http://www.censusindia.net/, accessed on 21 January 2013 12

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Table 2: Stakeholder mapping for Panaji city Community / Government (local, city, national) Local NGOs Academia Community Private Sectors Representatives  City Corporation of Panaji  Amchi Panjim  Goa University,  Resident Welfare  Charles Correa Foundation Potentially develop  Sewerage department  Goa National Institute of Association Resilience Actions at  Water resources department Foundation Oceanography, (RWA), grassroots level  Women Associations  City Corporation of Panaji  Amchi Panjim  Ecologists and  RWAs,  Infrastructure and Master Potentially develop  North Goa Planning and  Goa environmentalists  Women Planning Consultants for Goa Resilience Actions at Development Authority Foundation from Goa Associations  Charles Correa Foundation City level / Policy  Goa Pollution Control Board University and  Sewerage department National Institute of  Water resources department Oceanography  Coastal Regulation zone Department  City Corporation of Panaji  Amchi Panjim  National Institute of  RWAs  Infrastructure and Master Whose support will be  North Goa Planning and  Goa Oceanography  Women Planning Consultants for Goa essential to Resilience Development Authority Foundation  Goa University Associations Actions at different  Goa Pollution Control Board  Religious levels  Sewerage department Institutions (like  Water resources department Churches can  Coastal regulation zone help promote the Department Health Department cause)  Disaster Management Cell  Indian Metrological Department Most affected by  Goa Pollution Control Board  Slum dwellers  Travel & tourism association of Resilience Actions  Sewerage department  Fishing Goa developed or supported  Water resources department communities  Federation of Small and Medium by other groups  Coastal regulation zone department  Women Hotels and Guest Houses in Goa,  Disaster Management Cell  Tourist Guides, Boats men, Shack owners, Motorbike rental association Note: All stakeholders were invited for the Shared Learning Dialogues, however only those marked in red are the ones that participated

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This is the reason that, as can be seen from Table 2, the main responsibility of reducing vulnerabilities and building resilience currently lies with the city government and various other government departments. Other listed stakeholders can also play a significant role but further efforts at engaging them would be necessary, e.g. by developing a communications strategy for awareness generation regarding the city’s vulnerabilities and the need to build resilience.

5. Climate Scenario

In order to better understand the climate vulnerabilities of Panaji city the past and projected climatic data was analysed. The results of this analysis have been mutually agreed upon by the key stakeholders of the city through Shared Learning Dialogues.

5.1 Past climatic data In order to understand the climate change trends observed in Panaji, basic analysis of meteorological data from IMD (Indian Meteorological Department)2 was undertaken. Annual temperature and rainfall data from 1901 to 1913 and from 1964 to 2000 was available. Due to the large data gap, time series data from 1964 to 2000 was used for the purpose of trend analysis. No major data gaps were observed in the selected data and any missing values that existed were filled using annual averages from other years for the same parameter.

The figure below provides a consolidated analysis of the weather trends in terms of annual minimum and maximum temperatures as well as average annual rainfall. In the case of both temperature and rainfall the change in the 36 year period (1964 to 2000) shows a marginal increase.

40 350.00

35 300.00 30 250.00 25 200.00 20 150.00 15 temp (Deg C) 100.00 Rainfall (mm) 10 5 50.00 0 0.00

Annual Minimum Temperature Annual Max Temperature Average Annual Rainfall (mm) Linear (Average Annual Rainfall (mm))

Figure 3: Trends in variation of temperature and rainfall in Panaji (1964-2000)

2 http://www.imd.gov.in/, data accessed during November, 2012 14

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5.2 Future Climatic Projections In order to assess the future vulnerabilities of a city it is important to also understand the projected climatic trends for the area in which it is located. Climatic projections are mostly undertaken at a national or regional level. City level projections are most often not available, especially for cities in South and Southeast Asia. In the absence of such climatic projections for the city of Panaji regional projections have been used for this assessment. In this study the Government of India’s ‘Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment’ report from 2010 has been referred to. Following are the projections made in this report for the Western Coast of India3.

 Precipitation change: There is a high probability of an increase in Average Annual Rainfall in the range of 69 to 109 mm in the Western Coastal Region by the year 2030. The projected change of an increase of 6% to 8%, is expected to show an average increase of 8mm rainfall in June, July and August; a decrease on an average by 19 mm in January and February; and a decrease in rainfall in March, April and May.

 Temperature change: There is a high probability of a rise in Average Annual Temperatures by 1.5 to 2.2°C in the Western Coastal Region by the year 2030. The projected change is expected for all seasons, with the rainfall period of June, July, August and September showing the minimum rise amongst all seasons.

The projected climate trends broadly match the assessment of the past weather data as well as the general perceptions of the stakeholders: temperatures are increasing and are expected to increase in the near future; though rainfall has become erratic, there has not been a significant change in the amount of rainfall in the past and in the near future a significant increase is not expected.

Sea level rise is not perceived as a threat to the city of Panaji so far. However, if one examines the projected impacts of a 1 meter sea level rise in the Panaji area in terms of ‘percentage of GDP at risk’, ‘number of people at risk of migration’ and ‘potential land loss’ these are found to be significant – please see figures 4, 5 and 6 below4. The projections indicate that in the case of a 1 meter rise in sea level the GDP at risk in the Panaji area would vary in the range 4.58% - 12.47%, the number of people at risk of migration would range between approximately 19000 and 64000, and the hectares of potential land loss per administrative unit would be between 1199 and 2468 ha. These projected impacts are significant and therefore it emerged that there is a need to conduct thorough study in order to understand the possibility and extent of a rise in sea level and the corresponding impacts.

3 Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment, http://chimalaya.org/2010/11/17/report-climate-change-and-india-a- 4x4-assessment-in-india/, Accessed on December 14, 2012

4 These projections have been accessed from the ci:grasp website which ‘…performs as a climate information service and provides sound knowledge on current and projected climate stimuli, climate impacts and adaptation options at the national, sub-national and regional level.’ This is an interactive platform that has been developed by the Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and GIZ on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety.

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Figure 4: Percentage of GDP at Risk in the Panaji area Figure 5: Number of people at Risk of migration in the Panaji area due due to 1m Sea-level Rise (Source: http://cigrasp.pik- to 1m Sea-level Rise (Source: http://cigrasp.pik-potsdam.de/worldmap) potsdam.de/worldmap)

Figure 6: Potential land loss (in ha.) in the Panaji area due to 1m Sea-level Rise (Source: http://cigrasp.pik- potsdam.de/worldmap)

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6. Vulnerability Assessment of the city

The city can broadly be divided into seven zones - ecologically and environmentally (refer to Error! Reference source not found.75) sensitive areas:

 The Coast line and beach areas towards the West of the city. More beaches are being formed in the city, especially along St. Inez Creek due to deposition of sand from nearby areas.

 The Khazan Lands: Plains running parallel to the coastline. These plains are flooded annually by brackish water from the Rivers and Creeks and hence, are fertile but saline. Most of these Khazan lands are used for cultivation of salt resistant species. Runoff collects in these fields (earlier these fields were also drained by tidal waters). The main crops grown on these fields are rice and vegetables. Most of the cultivation is done using manure and use of fertilizers is limited. The soil itself is very fertile owing to backwaters and saline resistant varieties of rice are cultivated in Goa.

 Riverine Systems: Mandovi River flows along the North of the city and meets the Arabian Sea, Zuari River flows towards the South of the City.

 Creeks and Backwaters: These are brackish water areas and very rich ecosystems which exist along the Mandovi and Zuari Rivers and along St. Inez and Querem Creek. Sluice gates have been provided on Querem Creek. Brackish water along St.Inez and Querem Creek needs to be maintained to sustain the rich ecology of backwater areas.

 Mangroves: These are ecologically rich ecosystems located along the river banks (Mandovi and Zuari Rivers) and along the Creeks (St. Inez and Querem Creek). These mangroves have been formed due to mixing of salt and fresh water and the most prominent and richest stretch of mangroves exists near the Querem Creek.

 Sand dunes: The sand dunes along Miramar beach are on a decline and so is the sand dune vegetation.

 Springs located in the Fountain area are believed to be fresh water sources which used to supply water to the entire city at one time.

Altinho hill and Western Ghats are other ecologically sensitive areas in and around the city. As will discussed below most of the vulnerabilities of Panaji centre around these ecologically sensitive zones.

5 The base map of the city Panaji that has been used in this report were provided by the Charles Correa Foundation and ICLEI South Asia gratefully acknowledges this important contribution to the project

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Figure 7: Seven key zones of Panaji

6.1 Identifying key vulnerabilities The climate change impacts on the city of Panaji are clearly slow onset changes. As mentioned in the previous section, the city of Panaji has not observed any significant increase in rainfall in the past. However, the rainfall in the coming years may be erratic in nature - short duration high intensity rainfall. This could impose increased stress on the infrastructure and development of the city. The temperature of the city has shown a slightly increasing trend but due to its slow onset nature it has yet not been perceived by the citizens as an alarming threat to the city. Similarly, sea level rise is not perceived as a threat either by the citizens of Panaji though available projections for the area show that there could be significant social, economic and environmental impacts.

In Panaji, climate change is viewed as a longer term threat and therefore current challenges or vulnerabilities that are not necessarily linked to climate are viewed as more important and pressing issues that need to be dealt with. However, these non-climate related vulnerabilities would also be impacted either directly or indirectly by climate change.

In order to carry out the vulnerability assessment the key impacts and issues faced by Panaji city were identified using a four step approach:

 Initial identification of impacts through a shared learning dialogue  Supporting data collection to validate the impacts/issues identified through site visits and desk research  Detailed perception based information about the impacts through shared learning dialogues and personal interviews  Cross checking the availability of additional data in order to validate the additional information about the impacts

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Adopting this approach the following impacts have been identified for the city of Panaji:

1. Salt water intrusion Groundwater in Goa is available at 5-10m in the Tiswadi Taluk but in Panaji City (refer to Error! Reference source not found.11), groundwater availability has been reported at 1 to 1.5m below ground level. Salt water intrusion has impacted the quality of groundwater available. Parts of Tiswadi taluk are also impacted by this problem, especially along the coast, along Mandovi River and along Zuari River.

Real estate development in Panaji is using pumps to extract large volumes of groundwater for construction purposes. This has further caused salt water ingress into the city and increased levels of salinity in groundwater. Salt water ingress due to groundwater exploitation is affecting the availability of drinking water in the city as well.

A report by the Central Ground Water Board, Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India shows the areas affected by saline water in the state of Goa. This can be attributed to seawater ingress in inland aquifers along tidal river courses. Below is a map depicting the areas for the state of Goa (Figure 8).

Potential climate threat: the problem of salt water ingress due to unregulated groundwater extraction could be further exacerbated due to increasing temperatures that would lead to increased demand. Sea level rise would also only further worsen the current situation. Therefore while improved regulation and management of groundwater is needed in and around Panaji to address the saltwater ingress issue, the proposed measures should also take into consideration potential climate impacts.

Figure 8: Map showing Salt Water Intrusion6

6 Ground water Information Booklet, North Goa District, Goa State, South Western Region, June 2010; Prepared by Central Ground Water Board, Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

2. Formation of Beaches Formation of beaches on Querem and St. Inez is already taking place; more so in St. Inez. This is indicative of the sand deposition trends along the Panaji coastline. The formation of this beach has led to blockage of water flow of the St. Inez creek into the Mandovi River and hence, has increased backflows.

The formation of the beaches can be confirmed with the help of satellite imagery for the city. Figures 9 and 10 Newly formed beaches compares the existing beach at St. Inez in 2003 and 2010 – as is apparent, there has been a significant increase.

Figure 9: Google earth image showing the beaches near St. Inez in 2003

Figure 10: Google earth image showing the beaches near St. Inez in 2010

Potential climate threat: The formation of beaches is not directly related to climate impacts as there could be several complex reasons leading to this phenomenon. However, the impact that this

Urban Vulnerability Assessment has in terms of blockage of water flow of the St. Inez creek into the Mandovi River can cause greater flooding threats in the area in the case of increased ‘short duration-high intensity’ rainfall events in the future.

3. Loss of Mangroves Mangroves act as a bio-shield and protect the coast. It has been reported that the mangrove forests and marshland are being destroyed - reclaimed and transformed into housing complexes and commercial units. Reduction in mangrove cover is causing salinity, erosion and loss of habitat.

Thick mangroves on the outskirts of Panaji, are being reclaimed. In addition to the biological impacts of the loss of mangroves, the tidal waters could flood the surrounding Mangrove alongside Zuari river coastal areas causing erosion and thus opening the estuarine banks to storm surges. A steady decrease in the total annual fish catch has also been observed in Goa. The decrease is believed to be due to the land reclamation of mangrove swamps among other causes as these are breeding grounds for several fish species. In Panaji, there are a large number of cases where coastal stretches have been subjected to the forces of erosion due to cutting down of mangroves for land reclamation7. However no formal mapping of change in the mangrove cover has been carried out.

Potential climate threat: the links between coastal natural hazards / climate events and the role that mangroves play in reducing risks and vulnerabilities are well documented. In the scenario of rising sea levels or increased intensity of storms, mangroves would be an important component in reducing damages.

Suggested sector studies: Mapping of existing mangrove cover needs to be carried out. Ecological study of ecologically sensitive zones with focus on creeks and areas with mangrove plantation should be conducted for the city.

4. Land Reclamation Urbanization, construction of roads and flyovers on the reclaimed land has been undertaken over time and a large part of the coastline of Goa has been made on reclaimed marshlands. At the Querem Creek, the river is deep and beach formation does not impact the flow to a large extent. The area has a good mangrove cover. St. Inez Canal carries a lot of waste and is polluting Mandovi River. Reclaimed areas are prone to water logging due to flooding in Zuari and Mandovi River. Most areas along the coast line of Panaji were earlier under marshes and have been reclaimed over time.

Potential climate threat: During the rainy season, reclaimed areas face the problem of water logging and the water has to be pumped out. In case of increased short duration-high intensity rainfall events the waterlogging and flooding situation in these areas would only get worse.

Suggested sector studies: Time series land use maps need to be prepared for the city in order to identify the reclaimed land over the time.

7Mascarenhas, A., Tourism and Environment - Issues of Concern in the Coastal Zone of Goa http://drs.nio.org/drs/bitstream/2264/1322/3/Tour_Env_Case_Stud_Goa_Maldives_1998_1.pdf, accessed on 15 February 2013

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

High Water Table

Except for the Altinho area in Goa, most other areas have a high water table. Depth of water table is said to be 1 to 1.5m below ground. Due to the high water table in most parts of the city, soak pits are unable to drain properly and hence, pollute water sources, especially Mandovi River. The storm water drains need to be de-silted very frequently. The City Engineers face problems in laying pipelines and construction of buildings due to the high water table. Further, with almost 95% coverage of piped water supply in the Panaji City, more and more people have covered their open wells thereby eliminating the scope for deep water percolation. This is also one of the reasons for high surface run-off8. The map below shows the pre monsoon water table levels for Tiswadi taluk.

Potential climate threat: high water tables and increased run off combined with land use practices that do not factor for these issues could lead to increased flooding situation with changing precipitation patterns. Increased flooding would also lead to lead to greater chances of groundwater pollution and salt water ingress (as has already been discussed above).

Figure 11: Depth to Ground Water, North Goa District, Ground Water Information Booklet

5. Loss of Sand Dunes Sand dunes along the beaches of the city are receding. Dona Paula - Caranzalem - Miramar (Mandovi estuary), and Dona Paula - Agassaim (Zuari estuary) are the main sand dune areas in the city. The sand dunes in these areas are progressively being destroyed. At Campal, due to severe erosion, the only a small portion of the otherwise quite extensive beach now exists. Many sandy pockets are taken over by developers; heavy construction activity is seen along the coastal hill slopes. According to a report on the sand dunes of Goa by the National Institute of Oceanography, It has been observed that (i) construction of resorts and buildings, (ii) dune sand mining and (iii)

8 City Development Plan for Panaji, http://jnnurm.nic.in/cdp-of-panaji.html, accessed on 23 January 2013

Urban Vulnerability Assessment roads in sandy strips are the major factors responsible for the large scale degradation and consequent elimination of sand dunes of coastal Goa9.

Potential climate threats: like mangroves, sand dunes also provide a protective buffer from sea level rise and storm surges. The loss of sand dunes would therefore increase the vulnerability of the city to such events.

6. Lack of Sewerage Network In Panaji city, the sewerage network covers the core city area and does not cater to the urban fringe areas like Ribander, Donapaula, Caranzalam (City Development Plan for Panaji). Also, the un-notified slum area does not have the sewerage coverage. Most slums in Panaji are located in low lying areas and hence, are water logged. The high water table of the city adds to the water logging in these areas. These areas presently discharge untreated wastewater into St. Inez and other water bodies of the city. Sewage drained out in open area Due to this the soak pits also do not function in these areas and get clogged frequently leading to over flow of waste water. This is a major source of ground water pollution and also pollution of river Mandovi.

Potential climate threats: this vulnerable system of Panaji would not necessarily be directly impacted by climate change threats, but would increase the chances of greater ‘knock-on’ impacts on health and availability of potable during flood events that could be caused by changes in precipitation.

Suggested sector studies: All the slum areas in Panaji city are un-notified. A mapping of these areas is extremely crucial in order to assess their vulnerability. Further an infrastructural provision mapping needs to be carried out for these areas.

Sewerage network of Panaji city is being upgraded under JNNURM. Treated wastewater can be discharged into nallahs as per JNNURM proposal. There is a need to map these newly laid sewer lines.

7. Siltation of Storm Water Drains The storm water drainage system of the city ages back to the Portuguese period. The drains constructed during that time were nearly 5 ft high (around 40 yrs ago). Now these drains are only 1 ft high due to siltation. This siltation takes place mainly due the high water table of the city and due to this and quite often city witnesses the flash floods coupled with the flushing of back waters from River Mandovi. Hence the drains need very frequent de-silting. Also, indiscriminate dumping of solid waste, discharge of untreated sewage and encroachment in some places leads HTL level same as level of storm water drain to increased clogging of the drains. Hence, water can backflow in the affected areas due to lack of proper outlet and drainage. Further, the siltation of Mandovi and Zuari river cause the water level near the coast to rise which accentuates the impact of high tides. This causes the backflow of storm water into the drains (City Development Plan for Panaji).

9 Mascarenhas, A., Study of Goa and its environment from space: A report on coastal sand dune ecosystems of Goa: Siginficance, uses and anthropogenic impacts, http://drs.nio.org/drs/handle/2264/498, accessed on 15 February 2013

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Potential climate threats: flooding due to precipitation changes and sea level rise are clear threats that could make the city more vulnerable to flooding events. Therefore measures at improving storm water drainage should consider climate change impacts as well.

Suggested sector studies: The storm water drainage system of the city has not been mapped. It is exigent to have an infrastructural mapping done for the system for Panaji city in order to identify the entry points for improvement measures. Cross sectional mapping at certain points can be carried out to know the silt level in the drains.

8. Health issues Cases of various vector borne diseases have been reported in Panaji city. The issues faced by urban systems like sewerage, water supply and drainage future lead to health issues. Cases of E. Coli in ground water have been reported in the city (City Development Plan for Panaji). The key diseases affecting the citizens of Panajia are – Malaria, Dengue, Chikungunya, and Filaria10.

Potential climate threats: climate change would have indirect impacts on health by creating flooding and increased unhygienic conditions (as discussed above) that could lead to greater incidences of the diseases mentioned above.

9. Contamination of River High siltation levels in Mandovi and Zuari Rivers are a problem faced by the city and this problem is further amplified in the case of Mandovi River as all storm water drains in the city empty into Mandovi River. Earlier, the runoff that entered Mandovi River was absorbed by ponds, marshes, etc. but now most marshes have been reclaimed and this leads to flooding and back flow in storm water drains.

Open dumping of waste in the Zuari river Storm water discharge into River Mandovi from the town has made the river level rise above the High Tide Line. This has also led to rise in the base of Mandovi River and leads to reverse flow, especially during high tides. Further, the waste from casinos, hotels, and houses is directly dumped into the river causing increased pollution.

Potential climate threats: risks of flooding are enhanced. In addition, though this vulnerable system would not necessarily be directly impacted by climate change threats, but would increase the chances of greater ‘knock-on’ impacts on health and availability of potable during flood events that could be caused by changes in precipitation.

10. Reclamation of area of Mala Lake According to the City Development Plan of Panaji Mala Lake located towards the eastern edge of the city had a spread of nearly 75,000 sq.m. but due to reclamation of marshes and development in surrounding areas, this has gone down drastically. Runoff from Altinho hill was earlier absorbed to a large extent by the Mala Lake but owing to incessant reclamation of marshes, the lake is now easily flooded and the excess runoff from Altinho hills also causes water logging in low lying areas of the city. Further, the high tide line, springs in core area and backwater areas cause flooding of Mala Lake as catchment area has been encroached.

10 Government of Goa, http://www.goa.gov.in/pdf/VECTOR%20BORNE%20DISEASE%20CONTROL%20PROGRAMME.pdf, accessed on 14 March 2013

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Potential climate threat: the Mala Lake is clearly an ecosystem that, among its other services, provides the city of Panaji with flood protection. However, its mismanagement is increasing the vulnerability of the city to flood events. Unless corrective measures are taken, an ecosystem-based adaptation option against flooding could be lost.

Suggested sector studies: there is a need to identify and demarcate the catchment area of Mala Lake and identification of sensitive zones in the area is required.

6.2 Risk assessment Having identified the key impacts on city of Panaji, now we prioritise them based on an assessment of the degree of risk that each poses for the city. In this assessment risk is defined as a combination of the likelihood of an event to occur and the consequences faced if the event does occur. Risk = Likelihood x Consequence

The assessment is carried out through a scoring mechanism. In terms of the likelihood of an event to occur the scoring is done on a scale of 1-5 with 1 being ‘rare’ and 5 being ‘almost certain’. Similarly, for the consequence of that event the scoring is done on a scale of 1-5 with 1 being ‘insignificant’ and 5 being ‘catastrophic’. The consequence of the event is evaluated on the system as well as on the city government. Based on the final risk score generated for each fragile statement they are Fishermen area – Panaji categorized as extreme, high, medium and low risk (for further details please see Annex 2). The risk assessment was carried out through a stakeholder consultation. The stakeholders were divided into three groups where each group discussed and scored a set of impacts. The results determined by each group were later discussed with the larger group and finalized through mutual agreement. Table 3 below provides the combined results of all three groups for each of the identified vulnerabilities prior to an open discussion within the larger group. ‘Land reclamation’ and ‘contamination of river water’ were extreme risk impacts, while ‘saltwater intrusion’, ‘loss of mangroves’, ‘high water table’, and ‘health issue’ were scored as high risk vulnerabilities.

Table 3: Risk assessment results before discussion S. No. Impacts Likelihood Consequence Risk Risk Score Status 1 Salt water intrusion 4 3 12 High 2 Beach formation 3 3 9 Medium 3 Loss of Mangroves 4 4 16 High 4 Land Reclamation 4 5 20 Extreme 5 High water table 4 3 12 High 6 Loss of sand dunes 2 2 4 Low 7 Lack of sewerage network 1 2 2 Low 8 Siltation of storm water drains 3 3 9 Medium 9 Health issues 4 3 12 High 10 Contamination of river water 5 4 20 Extreme 11 Reclamation of area of Mala 2 2 4 Low Lake

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However, after the discussion in the open forum of the results presented in Table 3 the scoring was changed (see Table 4). ‘Loss of mangroves’ was added as an extreme risk vulnerability (earlier marked as high risk) and all low risk impacts were changed to medium risks.

Table 4: Risk assessment results after discussion S. No. Impacts Likelihood Consequence Risk Risk Score Status 1 Salt water intrusion 5 3 15 High 2 Beach formation 3 2 6 Medium 3 Loss of Mangroves 5 4 20 Extreme 4 Land Reclamation 5 5 25 Extreme 5 High water table 4 3 12 High 6 Loss of sand dunes 3 2 6 Medium 7 Lack of sewerage network 3 2 6 Medium 8 Siltation of storm water drains 3 3 9 Medium 9 Health issues 4 3 12 High 10 Contamination of river water 5 4 20 Extreme 11 Reclamation of area of Mala 2 3 6 Medium

This process of risk assessment helped prioritize the impacts and categorize them based on their perceived levels of threat. From Table 4 above the extreme and high vulnerabilities of the city of Panaji were found to be:

Extreme risks:

Land reclamation (Risk Score = 25)

Loss of mangroves (Risk Score = 20)

Contamination of river water (Risk Score = 20)

High risks:

Saltwater intrusion (Risk Score = 15)

High water table (Risk Score = 12)

Health issues (Risk Score = 12)

6.3 Vulnerable Areas Having prioritized the impacts based on their degree of risk, the areas vulnerable to these impacts were then identified. The impacts have been clubbed together into 3 groups as shown in the figures 12, 13 and 14 below. It was collectively decided by the stakeholder group to club the impacts as they are interlinked to a great extent. Therefore many impacts lead to the occurrence of other impacts and vice versa. For example, the city of Panaji has a high water table due to which there is a backflow of water in the creeks and the drains get clogged. This leads to the contamination of river water and causes increased health issues in the city. Further, loss of mangroves leads to salt

Urban Vulnerability Assessment water intrusion in the city. Several such inter linkages have been discussed in the previous sections of this report.

Figure 11: Map showing areas vulnerable to salt water intrusion, Beach formation, Loss of mangroves and land reclamation

Figure 12: Map showing areas vulnerable to loss of sand dunes, lack of sewerage network and siltation of storm water drains

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Figure 13: Map showing areas vulnerable to health issues, contamination of river water, and reclamation of area of Mala Lake

By overlaying the previous three maps, the vulnerability hotspots have been determined for the city of Panaji (Figure 15).

Impacts Loss of mangroves Land reclamation Contamination of river Salt water intrusion

Impacts Land reclamation Contamination of river Siltation of drains Lack of sewerage network

Impacts Beach formation Salt water intrusion Loss of sand dunes Contamination of river Siltation of drains Lack of sewerage network

Figure 14: Vulnerability Hotspots

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The vulnerability hotspots indicate critical areas within the city that are affected by multiple impacts and are therefore areas that can be immediately focused on. It is interesting to note over here that all three vulnerability hotspots are situated in the riverine area. Therefore, in the case of sea level rise scenarios in the future the current problem may be exacerbated several folds.

6.4 Identification of key actors The key actors impacted by the identified impacts and the ones who can influence the impacts have been identified. The actors have been scored on their adaptive capacity from 1-27 with 1 being least adaptive and 27 being the highest. These scores have been calculated on the basis of three parameters namely, Capacity to respond to threat or disruption, resources available to anticipate the problem and take action, and Capacity to access information to effectively respond to threat (see Annex 3 for further Un-notified slum of Panaji details).

For each of the impacts the list of actors were identified and defined by the stakeholders themselves and the scores assigned to calculate the adaptive capacities for each of them. The stakeholders were asked to be as specific as possible when defining the urban actors. As in the case of the risk assessment this was done through group work which was then discussed and finalised in an open forum.

The results are presented in Table 5 below. As can be seen, for each impact the highly vulnerable social group can be identified as well as those that have a high adaptive capacities. While the former are groups for whom targeted resilience building interventions would be necessary, the latter can be supporting agents who could help implement these interventions.

As depicted in the table below, in the majority of cases government bodies, the city corporation and private sector institutions have been allocated the highest adaptive capacity scores while the citizens (especially women and children as well as slum dwellers) are the most vulnerable. Only in the case of ‘land reclamation is the government vulnerable, while the builders are reported resilient (benefit from this).

The reasons for this could include: (1) the government is perceived as the sole agency responsible for undertaking developmental activities at the city level by the other stakeholders (2) as discussed in the ‘stakeholder mapping’ exercise the participants in these exercise had a greater government representation. UVA is not a one-time exercise but a process and therefore by including more of the relevant stakeholders (see Table 2 above) the actors analysis could be further strengthened. This would also need to be coupled with awareness generation activities to build a greater sense of responsibility and ownership among the various stakeholders.

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Table 5: Actors analysis

Highly Vulnerable Medium Vulnerability Low Vulnerability

Resources available Capacity to access Adaptive Capacity to respond to to anticipate the information to capacity Impacts Actors threat or disruption problem and take effectively respond to score (a) action (b) threat (c) (a*b*c) Salt water intrusion Public works department (PWD), 1 3 3 9 Corporation of City of Panaji (CCP), disaster management unit, NGOs Residents - Children, women and 1 1 1 1 elderly population Tourists, farmers 1 1 1 1 Beach formation Builders 1 2 3 6 CCP/Govt. 1 3 3 9 Residents 1 1 1 1 Loss of mangroves CCP, PWD, Forest Dept. 1 3 3 9

Residents, tourists 1 1 1 1 Land Reclamation Builders 1 3 3 9

Government bodies 1 3 1 3 Residents, workers, tourism related 1 1 1 1 workers High Water Table CCP, water resources dept (WRD) 2 2 2 8

Households 1 1 1 1

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Resources available Capacity to access Adaptive Capacity to respond to to anticipate the information to capacity Impacts Actors threat or disruption problem and take effectively respond to score (a) action (b) threat (c) (a*b*c) Loss of sand dunes Households, tourism related 1 1 1 1 workers CCP 2 2 2 8 Lack of sewerage Individuals, Households 1 1 2 2 network Hotels 2 1 2 4 Slums population 2 1 1 2 CCP, PWD 3 2 2 12 Siltation of storm Individuals 1 1 1 1 water drains Fishermen 1 1 1 1 CCP 3 3 3 27 PWD 3 2 2 12 Women and children 1 1 1 1 Households 1 2 2 4 Private Sector Organizations – 3 3 2 18 Health issues commercial offices etc. Public Sector – CCP 2 2 2 8 Hospitals 3 3 3 27

Contamination of Individuals (women and children) 1 1 1 1 river water Households 2 2 1 4

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Resources available Capacity to access Adaptive Capacity to respond to to anticipate the information to capacity Impacts Actors threat or disruption problem and take effectively respond to score (a) action (b) threat (c) (a*b*c) Private Sector Organizations – 3 3 3 27 Hotels Government departments 2 2 2 8 Fishermen 2 1 1 2 Reclamation of area Private Sector Organizations e.g. 3 3 3 27 of Mala Lake Charles Chorrea Foundation Individuals in slum areas 1 1 1 1 Households 2 2 2 8 CCP, Government departments 2 3 2 12

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7. Resilience Interventions

In the previous section the vulnerable areas affected by the key impacts, and the vulnerable population groups have been identified. In order to minimize these impacts the key relevant resilience interventions have been identified below by the stakeholder group.

Table 6: Resilience Interventions Impacts Resilience Measures Targeted (Vulnerable) Potential Supporting Vulnerable Area Actors Actors Salt water  Need to identify entry points for salt water Residents - Children, PWD, CCP, disaster Refer to figure 12 intrusion ingress women and elderly management unit, NGOs  Installation of pumping station at various points population, Tourists,  Plantation alongside the coast and the creek area farmers  Salt resistant crops to be grown Beach  Erosion of sand needs to be prevented Residents CCP, Govt. Refer to figure 12 formation Loss of  Mangrove areas around Querem Creek need to be Residents, tourists CCP, PWD, Forest Dept. Refer to figure 12 Mangroves conserved  A Mangrove Conservation Policy needs to be made for the city  study to explore how mangroves can be conserved and how the area under mangroves can be increased  Areas need to be demarcated for future mangrove plantations Land  The ongoing filing of ponds and lakes needs to be Residents, workers, Builders, Government Refer to figure 12 Reclamation stopped tourism related workers bodies  Original ponds and lakes need to be restored High water  Slum areas need to be provided with Sulabh Households CCP, WRD Refer to figure 11 table complexes to address functioning of soak pits affected due to high water table  De-siltation of drains

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Impacts Resilience Measures Targeted (Vulnerable) Potential Supporting Vulnerable Area Actors Actors Loss of sand  Erosion of sand needs to be prevented Households, tourism CCP Refer to figure 13 dunes  Beach grass needs to be planted related workers  Artificial wind barriers like wooden planks, nylon nets to be used  Fencing alongside the dunes Lack of  Need to map all infrastructure in the city Individuals, Households, CCP, PWD Refer to figure 13 sewerage  100% sewerage system coverage needs to be slum population network provided in the city  Need for an information management system to document service lines, and infrastructural provision  Slum areas need to be provided with Sulabh complexes to address functioning of soak pits  Mapping of un-notified slums needs to be done Siltation of  There is a need to de-silt or arrest siltation at the Individuals, Fishermen CCP, PWD Refer to figure 13 storm water mouth of creeks, especially St. Inez Creek drains  Expert opinion needs to be considered before de- siltation near or in the creek  Need for a centralized information network and resource centre (can be GIS based)  Need to map all infrastructure in the city Health issues  Measures to avoid water logging needs to be Women and children, CCP, Hospitals Refer to figure 14 undertaken Households  Awareness regarding the health issues needs to be created  Increased awareness about sanitation for women  Increased and better health facilities for the slum areas

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Impacts Resilience Measures Targeted (Vulnerable) Potential Supporting Vulnerable Area Actors Actors Contamination  Improved water quality monitoring systems needs Individuals, fishermen Hotels, government Refer to figure 14 of river water to be set up departments  Safe disposal of waste into the rivers needs to be ensured  100% treatment of waste water needs to be undertaken  Open dumping of waste into the river needs to be stopped  Awareness generation campaign for citizens Reclamation of  The ongoing filling of lake needs to be stopped Foundation, Individuals Private Sector Refer to figure 14 area of Mala  Original lake needs to be restored in slum areas Organizations e.g. Lake Charles Chorrea, government departments

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

8. Conclusions

Climate change is not perceived as among the primary drivers of vulnerabilities in the city of Panaji, it however remains a realistic threat, especially in terms of seal level rise. Climate change impacts on the city of Panaji are clearly slow onset changes. Increase in temperature is perceived by the stakeholders as one the changes that has taken place and that will continue to take place. Regional projections for rainfall indicate that an increase in the average annual rainfall can be anticipated, and the general perception is that there has not been a significant change in the rainfall in the past 30 odd years. Sea level rise is not perceived as a threat but projections of this event by scientific institutions show that there would be significant social, economic and environmental impacts.

The situation in the city of Panaji with regards to climate change vulnerabilities is representative of the situation that several cities in India and elsewhere find themselves. Climate impacts are not necessarily very apparent in terms of regular extreme events that the city has to deal with, as opposed to, for example, several cities in Bangladesh or the Philippines that face floods and storm events at least once or several times a year. This difference in experience to a large extent determines whether the city actually considers climate change as an immediate or short term threat or whether it is viewed as a longer term one. In addition, the slow onset or creeping nature of climate impacts e.g. temperature increase, in these cities further reduces its perceived threat value. For most cities in India, as in the case of Panaji, climate change is viewed as a longer term threat and therefore current challenges or vulnerabilities that are not necessarily linked to climate are viewed as more important and pressing issues that need to be dealt with.

Therefore this vulnerability assessment focuses on existing vulnerabilities and attempts to assess whether the anticipated climate impacts would mitigate or exacerbate them. It found that each of them would be further exacerbated, either directly or indirectly, by anticipated climate threats for the region. These vulnerabilities are inter-linked and therefore an integrated approach needs to be adopted to address these issues. ‘Land reclamation’, ‘loss of mangroves’ and ‘contamination of river water’ have been categorized by the stakeholders as extreme risk impacts, while ‘saltwater intrusion’, ‘high water table’, ‘health issues’ are high risk vulnerabilities for the city of Panaji. The assessment has helped identify which areas would be impacted by these vulnerabilities and which social groups would be most affected. It also identified the ‘vulnerability hotspots’ in the city. For each it also lists potential resilience building measures that can be undertaken, towards whom these actions should be targeted – thereby providing a clear roadmap for the City Corporation of Panaji. The city can use this assessment while undertaking planning development activities across different sectors. It would be wiser to err on the side of caution and take into consideration climate impacts in order to build climate resilience.

9. Next Steps

The resilience interventions identified by the stakeholders in Table 6 provides a focused starting point for further discussion in terms of refinement of these actions as well their prioritisation according to resilience and feasibility (economic, social, environmental) criteria. These actions can then be assessed for potential linkages with existing or planned schemes, followed by supporting sectoral and pre-feasibility studies, resulting finally in the identification of financing options. The urban vulnerability assessment is therefore the first critical step towards defining and implementing climate resilience actions at the city level (see Figure 16 below).

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Identifying Project Preparation Financing by ongoing or Urban Refinement & through sectoral linking to planned schemes Vulnerability Prioritisation of and pre‐feasibility national, regioanl to support the Assessment Actions studies; detailed schemes and other implementation of project reports potential donors prioritised actions

Figure 15: Climate resilience building pathway

9.1 Specific Next Steps for the City Corporation of Panaji

Based on this urban vulnerability assessment the City Corporation of Panaji could consider pursuing the following actions:

1. Include climate impact considerations in development planning and implementation activities even though currently it may not be considered a significant threat 2. Develop an improved understanding of the vulnerabilities by undertaking / commissioning the sectoral studies suggested for each the identified impacts (see Section 6) 3. Focus on extreme risk (land reclamation, loss of mangroves, contamination of river water) and high risk (saltwater intrusion, high water table, health issues) impacts, beginning with the identified vulnerability hotspots in the city (Figure 15). 4. Engage further with stakeholders and communities within the vulnerable areas to discuss the relevance and effectiveness of the proposed resilience actions to further refine and prioritise these actions (see Table 6) 5. Determine whether there exist any ongoing or planned schemes that can be leveraged to support the implementation of the prioritised resilience actions 6. Develop project proposals based on prioritised resilience actions to attract and maximise on funding opportunities from government and non-government agencies 7. Develop a communication plan and products on the vulnerabilities of the city that can be utilised to create awareness, educate and involve a wider range of stakeholders in the city resilience building process

9.2 Key Learning Points

1. Like the city of Panaji, several cities are in a situation where climate change impacts are not perceived as significant threat, especially when compared to current challenges or vulnerabilities that are not necessarily linked to climate. However, these non-climate related vulnerabilities would also be impacted either directly or indirectly by climate change. These cities need capacity building support to help them recognise and effectively incorporate these unperceived climate threats while addressing current vulnerabilities

2. Climate change is one of the drivers and there are other social, economic stimuli that trigger or exacerbate urban vulnerabilities. An urban vulnerability assessment should attempt at factoring all of these various drivers and their inter-play to the extent possible. Depending on the situation, the vulnerability assessment’s primary focus would lie either on climate change

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

impacts or on other drivers e.g. unplanned land use change due to increasing population and demand for land.

3. All urban development initiatives should have a component that monitors them against climate resilience indicators in order to climate-proof the investments

4. Active stakeholder engagement is critical for resilience building at the city level. This however is an iterative process and efforts need to be made engage them would be necessary, e.g. by developing a communications strategy for awareness generation regarding the city’s vulnerabilities and the need to build resilience.

5. Urban vulnerability assessment is an iterative process, and can be initiated with limited data and capacities at the local level and strengthened as the knowledge base is improved and local skills further developed.

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References

 Census of India 2001, http://www.censusindia.net/, accessed on 21 January 2013

 http://www.imd.gov.in/, data accessed during November, 2012

 Climate Change and India: A 4*4 Assessment, http://chimalaya.org/2010/11/17/report- climate-change-and-india-a-4x4-assessment-in-india/, Accessed on December 14, 2012

 Ground water Information Booklet, North Goa District, Goa State, South Western Region, June 2010; Prepared by Central Ground Water Board, Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India

 Mascarenhas, A., Tourism and Environment - Issues of Concern in the Coastal Zone of Goa http://drs.nio.org/drs/bitstream/2264/1322/3/Tour_Env_Case_Stud_Goa_Maldives_1998_ 1.pdf, accessed on 15 February 2013

 City Development Plan for Panaji, http://jnnurm.nic.in/cdp-of-panaji.html, accessed on 23 January 2013

 Mascarenhas, A., Study of Goa and its environment from space: A report on coastal sand dune ecosystems of Goa: Siginficance, uses and anthropogenic impacts, http://drs.nio.org/drs/handle/2264/498, accessed on 15 February 2013

 Government of Goa, http://www.goa.gov.in/pdf/VECTOR%20BORNE%20DISEASE%20CONTROL%20PR OGRAMME.pdf, accessed on 14 March 2013

 START 2009: Cities at Risk – Developing Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change in Asia’s Coastal Megacities. Accessed at URL: http://start.org/download/publications /CAR09-web.pdf on 17th November 2010

 UN-HABITAT, 2010: Cities and Climate Change Initiatives: Asia-Pacific Region. Accessed at URL: ttp://www.fukuoka.unhabitat.org/programmes/ccci/pdf/CCCI_Asia- Pacific_Flyer.pdf on 17th November 2010

 WWF International, 2009: Mega-Stress for Mega-Cities: A Climate Vulnerability Ranking of Major Coastal Cities in Asia. Accessed at URL: http://assets.panda.org/ downloads/mega_cities_report.pdf on 17th November 2010

 Tanner, T.M.; Mitchell, T.; Polack, E. and Guenther, B. (2008) Urban Governance for Adaptation: Assessing Climate Change Resilience in Ten Asian Cities, IDS Working Paper 315, Brighton: IDS.

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Annex 1: Stakeholder Matrix

Stakeholders will be individuals and organizations (government and non-government) at local, city, provincial and national levels, identified as vulnerable groups and/or representing vulnerable sectors. Stakeholders also include vulnerable private sector groups such as fishing industries, tourist industries, and other groups with an interest in adaptation actions (i.e. insurance companies).

The process of identifying appropriate stakeholders can be facilitated using the Stakeholder Matrix given below:

Government Local Academia Community Private NGOs representatives Sector Potentially develop Resilience Actions at grassroots level Potentially develop Resilience Actions at City level / Policy Whose support will be essential to Resilience Actions at different levels Most affected by Resilience Actions developed or supported by other groups

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Annex 2: Risk Assessment

A Risk Assessment is undertaken in order to identify high, medium and low risk impacts, prioritize them and therefore enable the prioritization of adaptation actions. For all the impacts / vulnerabilities that have been identified a likelihood and consequence score needs to be collectively allocated.

Step 1: Refer to the ‘Likelihood Rating and Scoring’ table and assess the likelihood of occurrence of each of the impacts / vulnerabilities and assign the corresponding scores as indicated i.e. Almost certain = 5; Likely = 4 etc.

Likelihood Rating and Scoring Likelihood rating Description Score Almost certain Could occur several times per year – likelihood probably 5 greater than 50% Likely May arise once per year – 50/50 chance 4 Possible May arise once in 10 years – probability less than 50% but 3 still quite high Unlikely May arise once in 10 to 25 years ‐ Unlikely but should still be 2 considered – probability significantly greater than zero Rare Unlikely in foreseeable future – negligible probability 1

Step 2: Similarly, use the ‘Consequence Rating & Scoring’ table to assess the potential consequences of each of the identified impacts / vulnerabilities and assign the corresponding scores as indicated.

Consequence Rating and Scoring Consequence Impact on system Impact on City Government Score rating System fails completely and is unable Widespread loss of confidence and Catastrophic to deliver critical services, may lead to criticism in City Government for failing 5 failure of other connected systems to manage the crisis situation adequately Serious impact on the system’s ability Loss of confidence and criticism in City Major to deliver critical services, however not Government, ability to achieve City 4

complete system failure vision and mission seriously affected System experiences significant City Government’s reputation may be Moderate problems, but still able to deliver some affected, possibly some political 3

degree of service implications Some minor problems experienced, Minor impact on City Government’s Minor reducing effective service delivery, reputation, no major problems with 2 possibly affecting certain other achieving vision and mission systems or groups Minimal impact on system – may Minimal impact on reputation of City Insignificant require some review or repair, but still Government, may present opportunity 1

able to function to review and improve system

Step 3: Having assigned a ‘Likelihood’ and ‘Consequence’ score to each of the identified fragile systems, now multiply both these values to arrive at the ‘Risk Score’ for each of the identified impacts / vulnerabilities.

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Step 4: Finally, for each of the impacts / vulnerabilities, assess their ‘Risk Status’ based on their respective Risk Scores. Please refer to the ‘Summary of Risk Matrix’ for assessing the risk status.

Summary of a Risk Matrix Likelihood Consequences Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic Almost Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme certain (RS* = 5) (RS = 10) (RS = 15) (RS = 20) (RS = 25) Likely Low Medium High High Extreme (RS = 4) (RS = 8) (RS = 12) (RS = 16) (RS = 20) Possible Low Medium Medium High High (RS = 3) (RS = 6) (RS = 9) (RS = 12) (RS = 15) Unlikely Low Low Medium Medium Medium (RS = 2) (RS = 4) (RS = 6) (RS = 8) (RS = 10) Rare Low Low Low Low Medium (RS = 1) (RS = 2) (RS = 2) (RS = 4) (RS = 5)

Step 5: List all the ‘Extreme’ and ‘High’ risk impacts (in some cases where there may not be ‘high’ risk impacts, ‘medium’ risk impacts can also be considered.

It is suggested that the risk assessment exercise is undertaken group wise and then discussed collectively to ensure maximum participation and a collective agreement on the prioritization of the impacts based on perceived risks.

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Annex 3: Analysis of Vulnerable Areas & Urban Actors

Mapping Vulnerable Areas In this exercise, the vulnerable areas each of the impacts / vulnerabilities in the city are identified. This can be done using hard copies of the city ward map and different colors representing different impacts. This will help us have a fair idea of the wards/areas where the identified impacts are most critical.

Further follow the steps below to guide you:

Step 1: Select the impacts which have been identified to have extreme or high risk in the risk assessment carried out earlier. Assign a colour to each of the impacts.

Step 3: Next, for each of the impact, identify the area/ward of your city that has been impacted the most. Mark the area/ward affected by the on the map with the help of the colour assigned to it.

Step 4: Repeat step 3 for each impact on separate maps.

Step 5: Overlay the wards/areas of your city on a single map. E.g. assume that the city has identified 5 key impacts and the areas affected by them. Overlay all these areas to identify the wards/ areas affected by the maximum number of ‘impacts’. The areas that are affected by the highest number of impacts would be the ‘vulnerability hotspots’ in the city.

Urban Actor Analysis

This exercise is to identify the specific key actors in the identified vulnerable area. In the above exercise we have identified the vulnerable areas/wards for each of the impacts identified. Here for each of the identified impacts and respective vulnerable ward we identify the specific key actors.

The Actors analysis can be used to identify:

1. How different classes of actors relate to different systems (who, what, where, why) 2. What categories of actors may be missing 3. Groups of actors that may be disempowered, lacking in capacities or otherwise marginalized

Please follow the steps below to complete the Exercise 2.

Step 1: For each the impacts, note the key actors involved – those affected by, and those who have control over, the system. Refer to the broad categories of actors mentioned above, but be specific in terms of the actors themselves e.g. in the case of Government actors it should be Department of Water Resources / Environment / Transport, as may be appropriate.

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Step 2: Rate the actors against the criteria of Capacity to Respond, Resources, and Access to Information based on the scoring mentioned in the Actors’ Capacities Rating and Scoring table below. For each of the criteria you need to determine whether the capacity of a particular actor is – Low, Medium or High, and accordingly assign the corresponding score as indicated in the table.

Actors’ Capacities Rating and Scoring

Key Capacities of Actors Score Responsiveness Low capacity to organize and re‐organize in response to threat or disruption 1 Medium capacity to organize and re‐organize in response to threat or disruption 2 High capacity to organize and re‐organize in response to threat or disruption 3 Resourcefulness Low capacity to identify and anticipate problems, establish priorities and mobilize 1 resources for action Medium capacity to identify and anticipate problems, establish priorities and mobilize 2 resources for action High capacity to identify and anticipate problems, establish priorities and mobilize 3 resources for action Capacity to Learn Low capacity to avoid repeated failures, and innovate to improve performance 1 Medium capacity to avoid repeated failures, and innovate to improve performance 2 High capacity to avoid repeated failures, and innovate to improve performance 3

Step 4: Finally, for each actor (for a particular fragile system) arrive at their ‘Adaptive Capacity Score’ by multiplying the scores allocated to each characteristic.

Step 5: Based on the Adaptive Capacity Scores of each of the actors, for a particular impact, you can determine which actors have a High, Medium and Low resilience. Refer to the Levels of Adaptive Capacity table to help assess the adaptive capacity of each of the actors.

Example 2: Levels of Adaptive Capacity

Resilience Score Level of Resilience 1 – 3 Low 4 – 8 Medium 9 – 27 High

Actors having a ‘Low’ level of adaptive capacity would be those that would need to be specifically targeted in the actions (or resilience strategies) that are undertaken to reduce the fragility of the identified urban system.

Actors with a ‘High’ level of adaptive capacity can be engaged in the proposed actions as they have the capacity to effectively respond to the impacts of the fragile systems. Similarly, those falling in the ‘Medium’ category can also be engaged in the proposed actions as they some capacities to respond.

Urban Vulnerability Assessment

Annex 4: List of Participants at the SLD

Sr. No. Name Organization 1 Nitish Wagle Aamchi Panaji N. Haridasan, Asst. Indian Meteorological Department, Meteorological centre, 2 Met. Altinho, Panaji Subhash G Mhalsekar, Municipal 3 Engr. Gr. III City Corporation of Panaji S.V. Kuolnekar M.E.‐ 4 III City Corporation of Panaji 5 S.V. Lawanda ME III City Corporation of Panaji V.N. Sawant Mun. 6 Eng. Gr. II City Corporation of Panaji 7 Vikram V Tengse North Goa Planning and Development Authority Planning Asst, North Goa Planning and Development 8 Shaikh Ali Ahmed Authority Member Secretary, North Goa Planning and Development 9 Ashok Kumar Authority 10 Radhakrishnan Asst Engg, Sewerage Department, PHE 11 S.D Abreu Municipal Engineer, CCP, Grade 1 12 Mohan Sakenavar City Corporation of Panaji 13 Bhushan Savaikar Deputy Commissioner, City Corporation of Panaji 14 Vignesh Prasad C. Studio Manager, Charles Correa Foundation 15 Arminio Ribeiro Director, Charles Correa Foundation 16 Charanya KI Fellow, Charles Correa Foundation 17 Maria Pilar Fellow, Charles Correa Foundation 18 David Cadman President, ICLEI Global 19 Block Medical Officer Urban Health Centre 20 Meesha Tandon ICLEI South Asia 21 Snigdha Garg ICLEI South Asia