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Understanding Kazakhstan's Foreign Policy in the Early Independence Period (1991-4)

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Understanding Kazakhstan's Foreign Policy in the Early Independence Period (1991-4) INDEPENDENT KAZAKHSTAN AND THE 'BLACK BOX' OF DECISION-MAKING : UNDERSTANDING KAZAKHSTAN'S FOREIGN POLICY IN THE EARLY INDEPENDENCE PERIOD (1991-4) Anuar Ayazbekov A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of St Andrews 2014 Full metadata for this item is available in Research@StAndrews:FullText at: http://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/ Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4895 This item is protected by original copyright Independent Kazakhstan and the 'Black Box' of Decision-Making: Understanding Kazakhstan's Foreign Policy in the Early Independence Period (1991-4) Anuar Ayazbekov Thesis submitted to the School of International Relations at the University of St. Andrews in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of PhD 16 December 2013 1. Candidate's declarations I, Anuar Ayazbekov, hereby certify that this thesis, which is approximately 80000 words in length, has been written by me, that it is the record of work carried out by me and that it has not been submitted in any previous application for a higher degree. I was admitted as a research student in September, 2009 and as a candidate for the degree of PhD in September, 2009; the higher study for which this is a record was carried out in the University of St Andrews between 2009 and 2013. I, Anuar Ayazbekov, received assistance in the writing of this thesis in respect of language and grammar, which was provided by Simon Taylor. Date …… Signature of candidate ……… 2. Supervisor's declarations I, Professor Sally N. Cummings, hereby certify that the candidate has fulfilled the conditions of the Resolution and Regulations appropriate for the degree of PhD in the University of St Andrews and that the candidate is qualified to submit this thesis in application for that degree. Date …… Signature of supervisor ……… 3. Permission for electronic publication In submitting this thesis to the University of St Andrews I understand that I am giving permission for it to be made available for use in accordance with the regulations of the University Library for the time being in force, subject to any copyright vested in the work not being affected thereby. I also understand that the title and the abstract will be published, and that a copy of the work may be made and supplied to any bona fide library or research worker, that my thesis will be electronically accessible for personal or research use unless exempt by award of an embargo as requested below, and that the library has the right to migrate my thesis into new electronic forms as required to ensure continued access to the thesis. I have obtained any third-party copyright permissions that may be required in order to allow such access and migration, or have requested the appropriate embargo below. The following is an agreed request by candidate and supervisor regarding the electronic publication of this thesis: Access to printed copy and electronic publication of thesis through the University of St Andrews. Date …… Signature of candidate …… Signature of supervisor ……… ii Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to the people and institutions in Saint Andrews, Almaty, and Astana, whose support made this research endeavour possible. I am thankful to the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan that granted me the Presidential Scholarship “Bolashak,” which covered my tuition fees and other expenses for the duration of the doctoral programme. I am indebted to my supervisor, Professor Sally N. Cummings, a true scholar and mentor, whose continuous academic support and encouragement was instrumental. I am grateful to my parents and my sister for their care and support. Elvin, Dastan, Ilyas, Asset, Maxim, Nicola and other friends made my non-academic life a much more enjoyable experience. It was also for the School’s Postgraduate Secretary Mrs. Mary Kettle’s kind assistance that my administrative matters were conveniently taken care of. Also, it was for the professionalism of the staff of the president’s archive in Almaty that the work on primary documents went so smoothly. I am also thankful to a fellow researcher, Ms. Dena Sholk, who kindly provided much needed advice on referencing at the submission stage. I am truly grateful to my wife Didara, who bore with me during the most pressing final stages of dissertation work. Finally, I would also like to acknowledge Dr. Maulen Ashimbayev who opened for me a path to research career, Dr. Makhmud Kasymbekov for the encouragement and valuable advices, and Dr. Murat Laumulin whose works and ideas inspired my academic curiosity. iii To Yermek and Raushan iv Abstract This thesis presents a foreign policy decision-making analysis of Kazakhstan’s foreign relations in the initial post-independence period. The study applies a neoclassical realist theoretical framework in order to provide the understanding of Kazakhstan’s external behaviour. The thesis conceptually assumes that the integration of the presidential decision-making element in the analysis of the republic’s foreign policy is essential to account for Kazakhstan’s foreign strategies, which would otherwise appear to be anomalous from the deterministic perspective of the structural theories of international relations. The set objective of the work is to produce a theoretically informed historical narratives of Almaty’s policymaking during three episodes in the republic’s diplomatic history – the elaboration of a distinct balancing strategy; the relinquishment of the nuclear arsenal; and the Nagorno-Karabakh peace mission. The reconstruction of events behind the decisions made by president Nursultan Nazarbayev and his key advisors through the assessment of primary materials sourced from the archives of Kazakhstani foreign policy demonstrates that foreign decision-making process played a crucial role in the identification of national interests and development of appropriate policy responses in each of the episodes under examination. Chapter IV illustrates how the nation’s policymakers developed a unique balancing strategy to ascertain the country’s sovereignty and eliminate security risks under overwhelming geopolitical pressures that emanated from Russia and China. Chapter V discusses the episode when Nazarbayev was subjected to direct international pressure to surrender the inherited Soviet nuclear arsenal on the terms imposed by the USA, in response to which Nazarbayev devised a deliberately ambivalent and protracted strategy in regard to the republic’s nuclear status. Chapter VI reveals the adaptability of the republic’s policymaking to the changing international context as the regression of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace initiative demonstrates. The exposition of intricate policy planning and profound diplomatic endeavours reflected in archival documents reinforces the thesis’s premise about the non-deterministic nature of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy. v Table of contents Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................... III Abstract...................................................................................................................................... V Table of contents........................................................................................................................ VI List of illustrations..................................................................................................................... IX List of abbreviations................................................................................................................... X Chapter I: Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 Empirical and conceptual context of the research.......................................................... 1 Research objectives and contribution............................................................................. 10 Research methods and design........................................................................................ 12 Research approach............................................................................................. 12 Research design and case selection................................................................... 15 Research instruments and data collection...................................................................... 16 Archival documents............................................................................................ 16 Triangulation...................................................................................................... 19 Interviews........................................................................................................... 20 Participant observation...................................................................................... 21 Challenges and limitations............................................................................................. 22 Note on reflexivity............................................................................................... 22 Fieldwork challenges.......................................................................................... 23 Research limitations........................................................................................... 26 Thesis outline................................................................................................................. 27 Chapter II: Conceptualization, operationalizaiton,
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