EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS ecfr.eu BRITAINENGAGING IN EUROPE WITH IRAN: A EUROPEAN AGENDA RENEGOTIATIONEllie Geranmayeh SCORECARD The European Council primer

When David Cameron decided to renegotiate the terms of SUMMARY British membership he had a strategic dilemma. Should he demand special treatment for London or should he try to • Rather than seeking further opt-outs for reform the whole European Union? Britain, David Cameron has sought a more comprehensive reform of the European Union Rather than seeking further opt-outs for Britain, he sought to bend the whole EU to London’s will. And the amazing story • Looking at how the 27 member states of the last few months is how far he has succeeded in this stood on the four main baskets of issues, quest. As the EU prepares for its summit on 18/19 February, we classified their position as ‘convinced’ there remain three sets of issues are still standing in the way (green), ‘partly convinced’ (amber), and of a deal: the debate around benefits for EU migrants, the ‘unconvinced’ (red), giving us 108 data points. question on how to manage the relationship between Euro- members and non-members and the question on ever closer • In the course of the renegotiation the number union. of these data points that are green ('convinced') has risen from 37 to 79. The number that are But underlying each of these debates is Cameron’s original red ('unconvinced') has fallen from 35 to just 6. question: is it better for Europe to offer London special

www.ecfr.eu treatment or to change the EU as a whole? Although the • Basket four on social issues and freedom of British Prime Minister made a clear choice, there is still movement remains the most problematic but some ambivalence in other member states. has, nonetheless, seen a dramatic shift in opinion between 2015 and today. Last summer, 24 Those worried about British exceptionalism are concerned out of 27 member states were unconvinced by about creating a populist precedent where any member

February 2016 reforms on migration. Today, only five remain state can call for special treatment at any time by holding unconvinced heading into the European Council. a referendum. In fact, Marine Le Pen’s announcement that she would follow the British precedent if elected, has • The opinion of some member states have scared many EU members. The EU has already shown changed dramatically, including that of how uncomfortable it is with this sort of ‘blackmail by key players like France and Germany. referendum’ in Greece: both when George Papandreou

ECFR/162 asked to have a referendum on the first package in 2011 and more recently when Alexis Tsipras called for a referendum in order to strengthen his hand. But other states are worried about agreeing to a Europe Greece, Ireland, and Luxembourg. In September 2015, not that is too British. They fear that whereas the Irish and the a single EU country was completely convinced. That’s an Danish protocols – which are seen as a precedent for the amazing change. One reason why several countries have UK - were about carving out specific national exemptions changed their mind is that they have realised what is in it for for these countries, the British deal will apply to everyone. them. It is particularly striking that countries like Austria, Integrationist-minded countries like Belgium and Spain France and Germany are interested in how the measures on are particularly nervous about the proposals to empower benefits might apply to them. national parliaments or change the language on ‘ever closer union’, a clause with has been invoked by the European Many member states are slowly waking up to the fact Court of Justice to invoke deeper integration. Even though that Britain’s reform proposals may result in a much the Tusk letter made it clear that some countries are still bigger change to the EU than anybody had thought at the committed to the ‘ever closer union’, it appears likely that beginning of the process. It looks like there is going to be a the clause would lose its legal force if it was not applied deal which, in many policy areas, is likely to make the EU universally. into a recognisably British style project. The only ones who do not seem to realise this are the British media. The hope in Some of the more Eurosceptic member states have similar other EU countries is that the British public will take yes for fears on the universality of the proposed changes on an answer, understand how influential their country is and migration. The Visegrad group (Czech Republic, Hungary, how much the others want to keep it in the EU. Poland and Slovakia) are particularly keen to keep the UK in as they seen Cameron as like-minded leader and want Mark Leonard to protect the rights of their many compatriots who are Director, ECFR resident in the UK. However, they are now engaged in a last ditch effort to prevent the restriction on benefits applying to other EU member states. If, however, they were to succeed with this, it could make the whole package less attractive for other member states that are supporting it now.

The renegotiation process is becoming a perfect metaphor for the cognitive dissonance between the way the British media writes about EU integration and the way it looks to other governments across Europe. From the British press coverage one could easily conclude that the renegotiation of Britain’s EU membership has been a disaster.

But many other capitals are staggered at how far things have gone Cameron’s way. ECFR started measuring the position of the other member states on Britain’s proposals last summer. Looking at how the 27 member states stood on the four main baskets of issues, we classified their position as ‘convinced’ (green), ‘partly convinced’ (amber), and ‘unconvinced’ (red), giving us 108 data points. In summer 2015, the picture didn’t look particularly rosy for the UK reform proposals. Over the last six months, this changed dramatically, with the data from February 2016 painting a decisively different picture (see figure 1)

Several countries went through impressive contortions; the Czech Republic for instance only supported one of four reform proposals in 2015, while opposing another and being unsure about the two remaining ones. Within half a year it changed it stance to being convinced by all, as did Austria. France and Greece both went from opposing three out of the four reforms to supporting all (Greece) or three out of four The Britain in Europe Renegotiation Scorecard is a (France). Every single EU member state, with the exception continuous project to monitor the changes in the British of Estonia and Hungary (which already supported three out negotiation over EU membership ahead of an in-out of four reform proposals in 2015) changed its stance in favour referendum. The traffic light system represents estimates of the UK’s reform proposals. There are now nine countries of government positions, based on background research which are likely to support every part of the British efforts: and interviews with policy makers and experts by our Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, network of associate researchers. 2 20 30 40 50 60 80 (Green =convinced,Yellow =partlyconvinced,Redunconvinced) renegotiation process between2015and2016bybasket Fig 2:Changesinsupportamongst27EUmembersforBritish 2015 and2016 Fig 1: Changes in support for British renegotiation process between 70 0 10 Competitiveness Social benefits governance Sovereignty movement Economic and free 37

(Green =convinced,Yellow =partlyconvinced,Redunconvinced) 2015 36 2016 2015 2016 2016 2015 2016 2015 2015 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||| |||||||||| ||| |||||||||||||||||||| |||| 35 |||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||| |||||||||||| 79 2016 23 ||||||| |||||| ||||| |||| ||||| 6 ||| |

3 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD AUSTRIA

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Austria‘s stance going into the EU Council minister. Eurosceptic and anti-European parties use the meeting negotiations to support their argument that the European integration process needs to be re-adjusted and that more Austria favours the UK remaining in the EU and in general, power should be given back to the member states. At an the Austrians support whatever improves the quality of expert level, the focus is mainly on the economic and the European integration process without changing the political consequences of a possible Brexit while leaving core. It has also made clear that there should not be any security questions and implications aside. exceptions made for the UK only. The Austrian government strongly supports basket four on social welfare and free movement. Foreign minister Kurz has repeatedly called Key issues to watch for UK citizens in for a restriction in social payments to curb benefit tourism, Austria and has stated he would not shy away from treaty change. With regard to economic governance, Austria supports There are approximately 11,013 UK citizens living in Austria. the notion set out in Tusk’s letter that “member states not If the UK left the EU and the EEA, conditions for Britons participating in the further deepening of the economic would depend on new bilateral arrangements. If treated as and monetary union will not create obstacles to but straightforward third country nationals, Britons in Austria facilitate such further deepening while this process will, would also be subject to a strict quota stipulating that the conversely, respect the rights and competences of the non- total number of employed and unemployed third country participating member states.” Regarding competitiveness nationals must not exceed 8 percent of the Austrian labour any improvement of the single market is welcomed if it is market. in line with the general principles of EU integration.

Which member states matter most to Austria in the discussion?

Austria sees its closest alliances in the discussions with Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and France, and favours using the Brexit debate as an opportunity for reforms to create a more efficient EU and counter growing popularity and support for populist and Eurosceptic opposition parties.

Where is the Austrian debate on this?

Due to the dominance of the migration and refugee crisis in Austria, the Brexit question is secondary. There is media coverage on the negotiations between Tusk and Cameron, however, a real debate has not yet taken place. The issue attracting the most attention is the social benefit issue as it has been raised several times by the Austrian foreign 4 Which memberstatesmattermostto A problem appeared whenDonald Tusk’s letter was Belgium inthediscussion? Belgium‘s stancegoingintotheEUCouncil While the French-speaking part of Belgium is led by acenter- is led While theFrench-speakingpartofBelgium France and Germany in the discussions. This is not surprising surprising not is This discussions. the in Germany and France The Belgiangovernment islikely tofollowthepositionof meeting alliance with the two countries that are seen as the motor of alliance withthetwocountries thatareseenasthemotorof an exception for theUKthat others might then chooseto avoided, buttheyalsofeellikeastrongerUnionrather the that consider elites political Belgian hand, one the On given Belgium’s weight at the EU level: one of its only options given Belgium’sweightattheEU level: oneofitsonlyoptions explained by the composition of the different governments. different the of composition the by explained discussed withtheBelgianfederal entities. The French- In is theoneaboutcompetitiveness. particular, expectations consensus tradition and ofits will to keep theUKin, the on which the federal and the French-speaking politicians French-speaking andthe federal on whichthe Flemishof partiesfromtheright, includinganopenly Tuskthe point in packageclearlyBelgian only thatmeets welfare andfreemovement. Thisoppositioncanpartlybe withdrawal ofamember statefrom theUnion must be the framework of thisagreement.Secondly,andmuchmore two issues. Firstly, theystronglyopposedtreatychangein compromise proposed strong concernsabout the have they the could takeastandattheCouncilmeeting,because they ofits Partlybecause isnecessary. Europe than “àlacarte” to influence the decision-making process is to try to form an an form to try to is process decision-making the influence to integration. separatist party. This issue is just one of the many hot topics many hot the of one just is party. Thisissue separatist on objected Brussels) Walloniaand from (both speakers have conflictinginterests. protocol text on the UK opt out of ever closer union making closer ever of out opt UK on the text protocol left coalition, the federal government ismainlycomposed government coalition,thefederal left fundamentally,basketfour:stronglyopposed social they follow. However, for dialogue. has sofaropted government federal Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues BELGIUM Summer 2015     Where istheBelgiandebateonthis? An important section of the population remains attached to remains attached population of the An importantsection Key issuestowatchforUKcitizensin Belgium There are around 27,335 UKcitizens living in Belgiumwho In Belgium, there isnosignificantpublicdebatearound and access to services and benefits would depend on the on depend would benefits and services to access and publicly,toavoida issue the totackle reluctant quite are crisis. In addition Belgium’s political DNA of support for DNA ofsupport political crisis. InadditionBelgium’s opinion public Belgian elites. political among the concerns national debate about the relevance of the European project. European of the relevance the about national debate would become third country nationals in the event of a Brexit would becomethirdcountrynationalsintheevent ofaBrexit the renegotiationprocess,eventhoughitraisessome the UK’s demands that a Brexit could be a good way to boost to way a good be a Brexitcould that UK’s demands the with the Unionanditsvalues, but somearesoexasperated Union. Politicalleaders the may leave that amemberstate increasing Europeanintegrationrunscountertotheideaincreasing refugee and the terrorist issue is mainlyconcernedwiththe support fortheEuropeanprojectinBelgium. bilateral deal reached between the UK and Belgium. bilateral dealreachedbetweentheUKandBelgium. February 2016    

5 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD BULGARIA

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Bulgaria’s stance going into the EU Council Key issues to watch for UK citizens in meeting. Bulgaria

Bulgaria has always supported the competitiveness agenda, The UN International Migrant stock dataset shows 5,329 UK and, as a euro-out (with a commitment to join when it meets citizens permanently residing in Bulgaria. Approximately the conditions) has always viewed the UK proposals on a 18,000 UK citizens are estimated to own property in Bulgaria, new deal for non-Eurozone members positively as long as a right that they would lose if no longer EU citizens. As non- they do not preclude further integration of the Eurozone. EU nationals they might instead be required to register as On sovereignty it is likely to accept the proposals in the a Bulgarian company in order to be able to own property Tusk letter on national parliaments and the UK’s non- legally. commitment to ever closer union. On social welfare and free movement, it leans more to being convinced by the current proposal than it was on the initial proposals under this basket , but it wants further clarifications on two issues: child benefits and in-work benefits - that the Bulgarian government believes can be resolved.

Which member states matter most to Bulgaria in the discussions?

In the case of the UK renegotiation agenda, Bulgaria is very close with the other newer member states. There has been some coordination of positions among this group ahead of Council meetings, especially in regard to free movement and social policies. In general, the Bulgarian governments is pro-EU, focussing on closer integration, and pursuing membership of Schengen and the Eurozone. It therefore follows Germany’s policies closely, but on certain issues including the single market, the UK influence is important too.

Where is the Bulgarian debate on this?

There is relatively high popular interest and therefore some media coverage for two reasons. First, there is a general Bulgarian perception of instability and confusion on the future of the EU and the UK's renegotiation has played a part in this. Second, there is interest in the practical impact of the deal on Bulgarians living, studying and working in the UK.

6 Where istheCroatiandebateonthis? Which memberstatesmattermostto Affairs hasnotyetpubliclyformulatedandexpressedits Key issuestowatchforUKcitizensin There isverylittledebate,ifany,goingoninCroatia UN figures show that 670 UK citizens liveinCroatia. show that670UK Citizens UN figures meeting. Croatia Croatia inthediscussions? CouncilEU the into going Croatia's stance Kovač accentuatedthathisfirstprioritywouldbetowork Previously, Croatia has supported the competitiveness and competitiveness the Previously, Croatiahassupported at anall-timelowduetotensionsrelatedthemigration agendas. Additionally, thenew government is convinced Croatia is mostlikelytobeinfluencedbyGermany'sposition. government. ThenewMinisterofForeignAffairs,Miro citizens obtain healthcare in compliance with the provisions the with in compliance citizens obtainhealthcare crisis. of the EU Regulation onthecoordination of socialsecurity Regulation of theEU on theCroatianterritory.During theirstayinCroatia,EU estate real toacquire entitled are state member of anEU on improvingneighborhoodrelations,whicharecurrently the andviews governance ofeconomic proposition on the related totheUKrenegotiationdeal.Thepublicand inaugurated only two weeks ago, the Ministry of Foreignof Ministry the ago, weeks only two inaugurated systems andin compliancewiththeprovisions ofthe social welfareandfreemovementpropositionpositively. for subsidiarity) in termsofrespect (especially sovereignty series ofministerialscandals. political focuswasplacedonthenewHDZ-MOSTCroatian position on the UKrenegotiation deal. Furthermore, the Since the new HDZ-MOST Croatian government was first twoweeks after theinauguration were marked bya Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues CROATIA Summer 2015     Directive 2011/24/EU.Directive is concerned,EU Asfaraseducation any member state under the same conditions as nationals of as conditions same the under state any member citizens and their children have the right to attend school in school attend to right have the children and their citizens third countrynationals. that country. services ismorerestrictivefor Access tothese February 2016    

7 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD CYPRUS

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Cyprus' stance going into the EU Council EU in 2004, an expat had to provide evidence that a Cypriot meeting was not able to perform the task an expat has applied for. There is a possibility that this practice could be applied once Given the deep political, economic, commercial and again for UK citizens after they leave the EU. historical ties between the UK and Cyprus, the Cypriot government will not seek in any way to jeopardise British EU membership through its stance in the renegotiation process. Nevertheless, the government of Cyprus is very sensitive when it comes to the fourth basket of the Tusk proposals. Agreeing to any sort of restriction to the free movement of people within the EU could create precedents with a possible negative effect for the ongoing peace talks on Cyprus. The Cypriot government is likely to acknowledge the problems caused by abusers of the current social welfare systems in European countries, but are unlikely to accept any derogation of the basic freedoms applicable within the EU.

Which member states matter most to Cyprus in the discussions?

The UK is the member state with most influence over Cyprus in the discussions.

Where is the Cypriot debate on this?

There is a moderate public debate on renegotiation, led mainly by British expats living in Cyprus. They are very much concerned about losing their certain rights that enable them live, work, and get public benefits in Cyprus. This is also concern for those Cypriot citizens living and working in the UK. However, there is little political debate. Key issues to watch for UK citizens in Cyprus

According to UN data, there are 40,547 UK citizens living in the Government controlled areas of Cyprus. The law regarding buying property in Cyprus allows European Union citizens that seek to permanently reside in Cyprus to buy unlimited properties for primary residence on the island. As for employment rights, before Cyprus entered the 8 Where istheCzechdebateonthis? Which memberstatesmattermosttothe Affairs andwerenotquestioned bypoliticians.Thisis Visegrad group (Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) and most

The UKdemandshaveprovoked verylittlepublicinterest The Czech Republic debates and aligns itsposition in the The other baskets are also supported with some legal The CzechRepublic supports thedraft decision setout UK renegotiations primarily with theothermembersof UK renegotiations Uniondeepening and non-euro have countriesnot should Czech Republicinthediscussions? Council meeting Czech Republic's stancegoingintotheEU Republic as a pre-in is interested in the European Monetary European inthe as apre-inisinterested Republic and nointernalpoliticaldebate. Positionswerecreated queries, as the Czech Republic prefers that changes toEU thatchanges prefers Republic Czech asthe queries, Czech that the country underlines economic governance,the demands even ifnone ofitsobjections were tackled. On of otherof countries tosoften limitations inarea thein-of notably Poland. The Czech Republic will support the efforts the will support notably Poland. The CzechRepublic within theofficeofgovernment andMinistryofForeign work benefitsandchildbenefits. worker’s integration. mechanism should be applied only to new workers and that workers and new to only applied be should mechanism a promote will Czech Republic the mechanism forbenefits, measures safeguardingfinancialstability. treaties be done through protocols. The basket onsocial basket The protocols. through done be treaties process. Thegovernmentiscalling this impede right to the it), as it fears that the mechanism could eventually become eventually mechanism could it), asitfearsthatthe in Tusk’s letter, and wouldprobably accepttheBritish shorter period for its application (with the option toprolong (with the shorter periodforitsapplication permanent. The Czech government underlines that thethat underlines government Czech The permanent. limitations shallbegraduallyreducedduringthetimeof for clarification of the second part of the principle two about two principle part ofthe second for clarificationofthe because of a current focus on the migration agenda, general migration agenda, on the focus a current of because safeguard issue. Regardingthe most sensitive is the benefits Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues CZECH REPUBLIC Summer 2015     Key issuestowatchforUKcitizensinthe UN datashowsthereare4,796 BritonslivingintheCzech Czech Republic Republic. Intheevent ofaBrexit, therighttobeastate amount ofCzechworkersintheUKwhowouldbeaffected. a year togainaccessbenefits. Non-EU nationals also also immediately entitled toeconomic rights and benefits, employee couldbelosttoUKcitizens–onlyEU/EEA obtain, althoughimprovementsareunderway. need work residence permits, whichare quite difficult to nationals canbecomeastateemployee.EUare while non-EU citizens need to stay in the country for at least for at country in the stay to need citizens non-EU while support fortheBritishdemands,andarelativelylow February 2016    

9 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD DENMARK

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Denmark's stance going into the EU Council Key issues to watch for UK citizens in meeting. Denmark

The current government is very positive regarding UN data shows 18,556 Britons are living in Denmark. As Cameron’s deal for two reasons. Firstly, Denmark shares EU citizens, they can purchase most property in Denmark many interests with the UK. Competitiveness and a without any prior permission. Their benefits include liberalised internal market have been the driving priority unemployment benefits, permanent and temporary for Danish EU membership since Denmark joined the EU incapacity benefits, child support, and rent subsidy. in 1973. Similarly, as a non-eurozone country, Denmark is Regarding all workplace and employment rights, EU extremely keen on keeping important economic governance citizens are given the same rights as Danish citizens. With discussions outside of the euro group. Moreover, as a country an EU residence permit, Britons can join the national health with a eurosceptic public, the suggestion to give national insurance scheme in Denmark which gives them access to parliaments a greater say in EU politics is welcomed by free medical treatment at hospitals and doctors. Higher the Danish government. The Danish government is also on education in Denmark is free to citizens of the EU/EEA, board on the controversial point on social benefits, which and they have the possibility of receiving state sponsored it sees as an opportunity to establish a similar deal for scholarships. In the event of a Brexit, these benefits would Denmark after heated debate in the country on benefits for no longer be automatically available to UK citizens. EU citizens.

The second reason for the uncritical support of Cameron’s quest is that it remains decisive for Denmark that the UK stays in the EU. The weight of the UK in the EU system promoting these interests is crucial for Denmark.

Which member states matter most to Denmark in the discussions?

Cameron does not need to waste any time on lobbying Denmark, the government is already on his side. However, Germany might be able to influence Denmark on the social benefits question.

Where is the Danish debate on this?

Since Denmark sees the UK as a like-minded alley, a potential Brexit is a subject to great public and political debate. While the general sentiment is that Denmark remains supportive of Cameron’s deal, there are some critical voices, most notably from the opposition parties, arguing that Denmark should be very careful not to mirror Cameron’s current path away from EU integration, and that it might risk losing other – and more important - allies, 10 such as Germany. Which memberstatesmattermostto Estonia inthediscussions? goingintotheEUCouncilEstonia's stance (but not influence), the other Baltic states, Latviaand Balticstates, other the (but notinfluence), Estonia isalsoinprinciple againstanyexceptionstothe Estonia agreesthatbetterconsultationmechanismscould in flexible quite to be willing Estonia wouldprobablybe The principle of non-discrimination is essential. Estonia is Estonia essential. is non-discrimination of principle The If Polandcancompromiseon freemovement,thenEstonia not toveertoofarfrom tried In general, Estoniahasalways Ingeneral terms,its security.is Estonia's bottomlineThe In Estonia, thedesire tokeep theUKin theUKisstrong UK isakeyplayerinEuropeansecurityanddefence, meeting Lithuania, will likely be singing from the samehymnsheet.Lithuania, willlikelybesinging fromthe some has governments it stands,the as However, Nordic countries,especiallyFinland.Intermsofpositions German positions. Estoniaalsocloselyconsultswiththe given theright toblock decisions made bytheeurogroup. country whosecommonsenseapproachcanserve to change, and it suggests a “green card” system rather than rather system card” a“green anditsuggests change, could supportsomeofthechanges,butnotthroughtreaty order tokeeptheUKinEU. not accepttheideaofendingexportchildbenefits. not regarding thosewhoare employed. Estonia also does but contributed, (yet) have not who people those regarding reservations ontheTusk proposal. Oneconomicgovernance, willing to compromise on changes to social insurance rules social to on changes compromise to willing welfare and free movement section, as Estonia strongly may follow. the “yellow card” system. The biggest issue is with the social the with is issue biggest The system. card” “yellow the since the UKis seen as a like-minded liberal, free market supports free movement of persons as a fundamental right. movement ofpersonsasafundamental free supports free movementofcapital.Onsovereigntyissues,Estonia be created, but not that non-euro member states should be should states member non-euro that not but created, be balance continental impulses towards excessive regulation. Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues ESTONIA Summer 2015     Where istheEstoniandebateonthis? Estonia Key issuestowatchforUKcitizensinthe Estonia’s interestsintheBrexitissue. Estonia at the moment. Right now, they have access to access have they now, Right moment. the at Estonia There ispopularinterestbutlittlepoliticaldebate.Officials UN data shows there are 487 British nationals living in living nationals British 487 are there shows data UN and politiciansdodiscussworryaboutit,butthere demonstrate aknowledgeoftheEstonianlanguageat nationals, theseareavailableafterobtainingaresidency term residence permit is that the foreign nationals haveto foreign the is that permit term residence is littledebatesincethereconsensusamongthemon permit and a work permit. The biggest obstacle for a long membership.Fornon-EU through theirEU public services rights and ownership, socialsecurity,employment property least B1level. February 2016    

11 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD FINLAND

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Finland's stance going into the EU Council Where is the Finnish debate on this? meeting. Especially during the last weeks and months, the Finnish The Finnish government has not publicly taken a position on media has reported quite extensively on the negotiations the demands presented by the United Kingdom. However, between the EU and the UK. However, there is little there are good reasons to believe that the government is political debate about the issues on the table or the about generally supportive of the preliminary deal presented by the relationship between the EU and the UK. The UK Tusk – and ready to go to some lengths in order to satisfy question has been largely overshadowed in Finland by the the British demands. Generally speaking, Finland considers refugee crisis, the tensions between the EU and Russia, and the United Kingdom as an important ally within the EU, as the eurozone crisis. Also, as explained above, the demands the countries share many objectives. From the Finnish point of the UK have not proven very controversial in Finland. To of view, the UK is an essential member state also because some extent, the whole renegotiation process has been seen it adds weight to the EU’s foreign, security and defence as something that Finland can have little or no influence on. policies. Key issues to watch for UK citizens in Finland has traditionally opposed the emergence of dividing Finland lines within the EU, and is worried about special status for some member states because of the complications in UN data shows 6,898 UK citizens currently live in Finland. decision-making. However, the compromises suggested In the case of Brexit, the status of the UK citizens within the in the Tusk letter will likely suit Finland. As a result of the EU would depend largely on the kind of relationship that the debate on the refugee crisis, the issue of benefits and cost EU and the UK would agree on. If the UK nationals were to of migration are becoming more pertinent. As long as the be considered simply as non-EU citizens, they would have proposed measures in the fourth basket do not endanger similar access to rights, social security and public services, the freedom of movement within the EU on a larger scale, but only if they could get a residence permit. They could Finland is likely to support them. only apply for this after already having secured a job or place in university. Due to a recent government decision, non- However, so far Finland has not had a significant role in the EU/EEA citizens also have to pay tuition fees in order to renegotiation process and this is unlikely to radically change study in the English-speaking study programmes of Finnish in the final stages of the process. universities.

Which member states matter most to Finland in the discussions?

Finland will naturally pay particularly close attention to the British concerns and views. Like in most EU matters in recent years, Finland is also likely to attach significance to the position of Germany. However, Finland is unlikely to change its views in any radical way.

12 Where istheFrenchdebateonthis? Which memberstatesmattermosttoFrance France's stance going into the EU Council EU intothe going stance France's France’s major outstanding concern istheeconomic Tusk’s proposedconcessions, oreveninfavourofaBrexit, Throughout therenegotiation, Paris and Berlin have UK –or any non-eurozonecountry–in the decision-making meeting Despite somepoliticalfigures beingopposedtoDonald National seesthe renegotiationsasanopportunity toattack in thediscussions? and doesnotinvolvetreatymodification. and free movement basket, France has movedall theway benefits social the and basket sovereignty the both On government atthispoint. François Hollande outs. for euro deal the basket: governance on joint proposals to deepen integration of the eurozonedeepen integrationproposalsof jointto on of theeurozone. The ambiguityofDonaldTusk’s about letter remained very closelyaligned. The French government national parliamentsgoesfurtherthanFrancewouldhave negotiations, even though thenew red card offered to with Berlin. Frenchwithout givingLondonavetodoesnotsatisfythe mainstream partiessharethe sameperspective:theUK France isalsoworking on Eurozonepolicies. member states the mechanism that would reassure the concerns of the UK concerns ofthe the reassure mechanism thatwould the impose treatymodification.On theotherhand,Front puts butFrance forbothcountries, line red is anabsolute treaties of existing respect The negotiations. the influence should stayintheEU,and compromiseshouldnot bynon-eurozone anyveto special emphasisonpreventing knows that it needs the support of Berlin in order to inorder Berlin of support the needs it that knows for the any veto reject would he that declared repeatedly has letter give David Cameron symbolic signs of reassurance liked. In any case, France appreciates thatDonald Tusk’s from red (unconvinced) to green (convinced) during the during (convinced) green to (unconvinced) from red Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues FRANCE Summer 2015     France Key issuestowatchforUKcitizensin 185,344 UK citizens liveinFrance,and200,000 185,344 UK more own France than French citizens in the UK. All EU citizens have citizens EU All UK. in the citizens France thanFrench European movementsandmediaoutletshaveregrettedthe The populardebatehasalsobeenlimited.Allmediaoutlets They havebeendiscussingasmucheurozonegovernance 6 months. More Britons receive unemployment welfare in welfare unemployment Britons receive 6 months.More David Camerononthisissue,whileothershavesometime a modelforherEuropeanpolicyifsheiselectedPresident any sectorinFrance, andcanstaytolookforworkup a holidayhome. AscitizensoftheEEA, theycanwork in alluded tothepossibilitythatFrancecouldbenefitfrom as reformofsocialbenefitsandfreemovement:pro- of thereferendumtoforceEUrenegotiatecouldbe rather abouttheregimeopenedbyDirectiveonposted workers thanaboutwelfareabuses. the EU.MarineLePenhassaidthatDavidCameron’suse the same healthcare rightsasFrenchcitizens,andeducation same healthcare the the similarreforms.Still,discussioninFranceis implications ofaBrexit,althoughindescriptivefashion. in 2017. is mandatoryandfreeforallfromage6to16. have discussedDonaldTusk’sletterandthepossible leniency ofDonaldTuskandEuropeanpartnersvis-à-vis February 2016     13 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD GERMANY

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Germany's stance going into the EU Council Where is the German debate on this? meeting The media have reported on the British question with more The keystone of Germany’s position is that Germany wants dedication over the past few weeks, but the Tusk proposals, the UK in, but only in a strong Union. This means Berlin largely because of their complexity and their nature as a cannot give in to claims that it believes will undermine moving target, are far from making the headlines. These the Union, but is willing to supports measures that will continue to be dominated by the refugee crisis, which is of strengthen it. It follows from this that Berlin has an interest much more immediate concern to the German public than in helping London to sell whatever is agreed as an ambitious Britain’s EU future. This is one reason why the government package. itself is holding back from making more detailed statements on the negotiations and offers it is willing to put Germany’s remaining concerns are around the implications on the table. A great deal of attention is being paid though of the sovereignty deal and the social welfare/free in the policy community – from the Chancellor, across a movement package. On the sovereignty deal, the high 55 number of ministries, to the business community, experts percent threshold for the national parliaments red card veto in think tanks as well as by the German parliament to the system in Tusk’s letter could be deemed sufficient to make details of any future deal. The European Affairs Committee it a high hurdle, but Berlin is concerned about conceding of the Bundestag discussed the British proposals in an a reduction in the European Parliament’s authority to the expert hearing in late January 2016. There is a concern that anti-EU lobby. On the fourth basket, Berlin has always been a UK deal with fundamental impact on the functioning of concerned about attacks on the principle of free movement. the EU is signed without participation of parliaments. The current proposals around the emergency brake system could be acceptable since they give the EU institutions a role Key issues to watch for UK citizens in in it being enacted. Germany

Which member states matter most to Just over 103,352 UK citizens live in Germany, and as EU Germany in the discussions? citizens have full rights to freedom of movement. In the event of a Brexit, depending on the bilateral deal reached Berlin’s key allies in this discussion are those EU members between the UK and Germany, UK citizens could be asked that care about questions of fundamental nature for the to apply for work and residency permits. future of the Union – centred around, but not exclusively among the six founding members (Belgium, France, Another immediate challenge for the UK government in the Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands). On the event of a decision to leave the EU would be to negotiate an social welfare/ freedom of movement basket, the central and agreement on pension entitlements. British citizens, who eastern European states are crucial. Berlin’s relationship have contributed to the German pension scheme are – within with Warsaw is currently strained, and Germany will be a European-wide agreement - currently entitled to receive a wary of agreeing on a package that might put it at odds with pension dependent on their respective contribution period. Poland. On the euro outs question, the conversations within In the event of a Brexit, these contribution periods would the eurozone are vital, but Berlin also has a strong interest lapse. UK citizens then would have to wait 24 months before in any outsider willing to support constructive coexistence being able to claim back their contributions. of both eurozone and non-eurozone to make a future deal work. Conversations with Sweden and Denmark, are perhaps easier at this stage than with Poland. 14 Where istheGreekdebateonthis? Which memberstatesmattermosttoGreece As far ashealthcare isconcerned, there isfree access According toUNdata17,679 UKcitizenslive in Greece. As oftenhappenswithEuropeanaffairsinGreece,the satisfied particularly not is Greece principle of matter a As Athens’ fear that in the case ofa Brexit, thestructure of Key issuestowatchfor UKcitizensin Europe will completely change and a domino effect could be could and adominoeffect change will completely Europe The fundamental position of Greece isthatBritainshould positionofGreece fundamental The meeting Greece's stancegoingintotheEUCouncil Greece Britain staying in the Union.Therefore,tolikelythe is in Athens staying Britain in thediscussions? attention. Thereisnopoliticaldiscussiononthematter. a period during which more voices are being heard about a new European debatethat couldturn against Greece in Greece plays no active role on the matter and only expects a no activeroleonthematterandonlyexpects plays Greece contributed to Greece’s bridge loan, and this would not be not would loan, andthis bridge Greece’s to contributed costs. all at found, be to a compromise wants Athens created. debate aboutBrexitandTusk’sproposalsreceiveslittle compromise followingmediationbybiggerEUplayers. competiveness andsovereignty. refrain from taking part in the discussion on issues ofits discussiononissues inthe part fromtaking refrain with Tusk’swith proposalsgovernance oneconomic socialand matters morefortheGreekgovernmentisthatacompromise interest and remain neutral regarding Tusk’s proposals on its expulsion from the Schengen area. Nevertheless, what stay intheEuropeanUnion. Thispositionisgroundedin possible in the future. Additionally, restrictions insocial restrictions Additionally, future. inthe possible between Brussels and London is reachedsafeguardingand London Brussels between benefits/freeformovementway standardspavethe could movement. In July 2015, benefits/free for instance,Britain Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues GREECE Summer 2015     Insurance Card is required for adults to show EU citizenship to showEU Insurance Cardisrequiredforadults and eligibility(childrenconstituteanexception). non-emergency health treatment, the European Health European the treatment, health non-emergency for all emergencies irrespective ofnationality.Butfor irrespective for allemergencies February 2016     15 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD HUNGARY

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Hungary's stance going into the EU Council Where is the Hungarian debate on this? meeting The political debate is very narrow and shallow: the Hungary has been supportive of the demands the UK has government dominates communication about the UK made in the first three baskets. The real question for Hungary renegotiation demands, and only concentrates on the is the fourth basket on social benefits and free movement. fourth basket of demands. Public debate on the demands There are over 56,000 Hungarians in the UK. As it has and on the Tusk letter is limited to a few brief analyses and been often communicated by the Hungarian government, opinion pieces. according to their calculations these people pay more taxes than the amount of benefits they receive. The government Key issues to watch for UK citizens in finds it unacceptable that those who just use their right to Hungary free movement could be discriminated against. It has been repeatedly noted that Hungary supports preventing abuse According to the UN’s International Migrant Stock dataset, of benefits. However, the emergency break mechanism, in mid-2015, 6,980 UK citizens lived in Hungary. With the especially without concrete and precise details, is not seen European Health Insurance Card, EU and EEA citizens as acceptable in the form as it is presented in the Tusk letter are entitled to public healthcare either free of charge or by the Hungarian government. The Polish and Hungarian in certain cases their treatment is reimbursed. Anyone, prime ministers have announced that they will not support including foreigners, staying in Hungary for longer than the EU adopting such a position binding all member states three months needs to register with the National Health to be subjected to the emergency break. Hungary seeks very Insurance Fund (OEP) in order to be eligible for Hungarian strong evidence-based justification to be introduced as part public health insurance. of the emergency break mechanism should it be accepted, and any modifications under this package can only concern newcomers. On the question of indexing childcare benefits, Hungary will likely be more flexible, but here again Hungary insists that it can only be applied to newcomers.

Which member states matter most to Hungary in the discussions?

Hungary is in favor of building a coalition and formulating one final common position with the other Visegrad countries (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia) ahead of the Council meeting. Nevertheless, since the Szydło government came into power in Poland, the Orbán government has been strengthening ties with Poland specifically and has been coordinating with Warsaw on the highest levels.

16 Where istheIrishdebateonthis? Which memberstatesmattermostto Ireland inthediscussions? Ireland's stance going into theEUCouncil

European positionandtheUK’s concerns, andthatthe Though thereispublicawareness oftheissue,Brexit Brexit negotiations The primaryIrish concern goingintothe Ireland supports theproposals oneconomicgovernance meeting Normally influenced by the UK and the Franco-German axis, and the UK by the Normally influenced amalgamation of the existing EU initiatives. The Irish see Irishsee The initiatives. EU amalgamation oftheexisting and seesthecompetitivenessbasketas littlemore an than as initiallyfeared. difference between theUK’s negotiating position and that conversation inIrelandisvery muchtop-down,led of its counterparts in the European Council is not so great Councilisnotsogreat European inthe of itscounterparts no major issues with the articles on sovereignty.Regarding with thearticles no majorissues was how best to marry the Irish pro-European integration integration Irishpro-European the marry to best how was this isarare occasion in which theIrish national interests this, since that thecurrentproposal satisfies is asense there but respected, ofnon-discriminationbe principle that the that the draft decisionstrikes a fair balance betweenthe in thewayofdomestic Euroscepticism.Assuch, thedebate, industry representativeorganisations. Irelandissomewhat solution,itis asanacceptable proposal current the it sees andexception,UK-specific providea fornot does firstly it stance, withthecountry’sneedtomaintainstrong, secondly leaves a say over the emergency break with Europe. break with emergency a sayoverthe leaves secondly Irish the for key was it movement, free and benefits social have taken precedence. Ireland has a vested interest in interest hasavested Ireland precedence. taken have prosperous British-Irish relationship. There isasense There British-Irishrelationship. prosperous unusual intheEuropeancontext, inthatthereexistslittle primarily bygovernment,think-tanks, politicalpartiesand unlikely tobeswayedfromthisposition. facilitating asolutiontotheUK’sreformagenda,andsince Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues IRELAND Summer 2015     Area, UKcitizensenjoyspecialstatusinIreland, which According toUNdata, thenumberofUKnationalsin Ireland Key issuestowatchforUKcitizensin Ireland is 254,761. As members of the CommonTravel ofthe Asmembers is254,761. Ireland However, there exists significant uncertainty as to whether to as uncertainty significant exists However, there and bilateral arrangements, would not be undulyaffected. wouldnotbe and bilateralarrangements, to continue would countries two the arrangements between allows themtoliveandworkinIrelandmuchthesame exist post-Brexit, it is theoretically possible that the rights thatthe possible itistheoretically post-Brexit, exist currentthe that assuming EU,and departurethe from of UK citizens, as provided for under the current domestic the for under citizens, asprovided of UK way as Irish citizens. Depending on the terms ofa British made clearthattheydonotwishtoseeaBrexit. these arrangements could be maintainedinthepost-Brexit arrangements could these scenario. have moderateeuroscepticleanings,SinnFein,hasalso has focusedlargelyonthepotentialnegativeimplications for Irishinterests.Theonlypartythatcouldbeseento February 2016     17 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD ITALY

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Italy's stance going into the EU Council Where is the Italian debate on this? meeting Brexit has triggered a more intense debate among political During the renegotiations, the dossier on which the Italian forces than among the Italian public. As the national has shifted the most significantly is economic governance. debate is still rather weak, the public orientation will Last summer, the Italian position was very wary on the depend largely on the UK’s approach at the negotiations UK request for a voice on eurozone decision making, but in the EU Council meeting on 18 February. If the UK Renzi’s government is now likely to take the view that if the takes a cooperative and positive stance, this might lead UK’s interests are in better reshaping the balance between the Italian public and media to judge the renegotiations eurozone ins and outs, without obstructing a further positively. On the contrary, a confrontational approach, integration in domains such as fiscal and banking union, with no willingness to reach any compromise, would Italy will be able to support Tusk’s proposal on this matter. negatively influence the public perception on the Brexit’s Concerns remain around basket four on social welfare/ renegotiations. freedom of movement, both in terms of overall principle, and in terms of impact on Italian workers in the UK. Italy is Key issues to watch for UK citizens in Italy likely to be looking for a deal that is sufficiently time limited in nature and tailored to exceptional circumstances. According to UN data 64,986 UK citizens live in Italy and have the same rights as Italian nationals to work, welfare Which member states matter most to Italy and social security and services via EU citizenship. In the in the discussions? event of a Brexit, arrangements for these citizens would depend on the bilateral deal negotiated. Traditionally, Germany and Italy have been quite close in various rounds of treaty reforms, partly because of similar bureaucratic traditions regarding EU constitutional law. However, more recently, the Italian ambition to pull their weight again within the EU has started to play out in relations with Germany. Nevertheless, this ambition for retaking a central role in EU decision making may well drive Italy to flank Germany in the discussions, precisely because Merkel’s brokering role is likely to be critical.

While Italy’s philosophical stance on Europe is in total opposition to the British one, a partnership of sorts has emerged between the UK and Italy during the renegotiation process. The two countries share the same view on streamlining bureaucracy and on introducing greater flexibility. Italy may commit to uphold the great majority of the reforms Cameron is asking for in the name of the shared end of a simplified EU, as set out in the common memorandum issued by foreign ministers Gentiloni and Hammond in early December.

18 Where istheLatviandebateonthis? Which memberstatesmattermosttoLatvia Although themediahasreflecteduponmattertosome Latvia's stancegoingintotheEUCouncil

There issomepopularinterestbutlittlepoliticaldebate. meeting Latvia isalmostdefinitelygoingtofollowGermany’slead Latvia fullyagrees withtheproposed reforms on in thediscussions? a newLatviangovernmentand theongoingdiscussionon as problematic, butasitconsiders theUKtobeoneof Germany’s advicewouldprevail.Poland,isoneofLatvia’s government seeks a deal with the UK tomaintainthe UK withthe adeal seeks government government disagreeswithanydiscriminationandfully extent, themainattentionhasbeenpaidtomattersof existing cooperation. Latvian movement: the and free on socialbenefits changes on andbased legislation EU the with inaccordance done otherbasketsofcompetitiveness,the criticalof is but of FranceandregionalpartnersSwedenFinland,but on thismatter.Latviaalsotendstolistentheopinions reforms. On economic governance, the government insists government the governance, Oneconomic reforms. was moreconcernedwithhowtheproposedreformsare migration andbenefitseekers.Mostofthepublicdebate mutual interests. Latvia considers a“two-speedEurope” these concerns aside. Most problematic are the proposed anythatcurrentchanges inthe cooperation beshould the acceptanceofrefugeescould beexplanationsforthis the sameweightinLatviasinceitschangegovernment. its mostimportant security guarantors, itislikely toput strongest andmoreoutspokenpartners,butdoesn’tcarry supports the free movement of people. However, the perceived inBritishsociety.Thepoliticaldebateisvery lack ofinterest. limited evenonthehighestlevel. Theprocessofconfirming Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues LATVIA Summer 2015     Key issuestowatchforUKcitizensinLatvia 1,148 British nationals currently live inLatvia. 1,148 citizens, nationals currently BritishAs EU (if legally employed), health care and education as Latvian as education and care health employed), legally (if citizens. If Britain leaves the EU and the EEA and does not and does EEA and the EU the citizens. IfBritain leaves join theEFTA,theserightswouldbeatrisk. they enjoy the same rightsregardingproperty,socialsecurity the enjoy they February 2016     19 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD LITHUANIA

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Lithuania's stance going into the EU Council Key issues to watch for UK citizens in meeting Lithuania

The Lithuanian position is that Tusk's proposal creates the 3,301 UK citizens currently live in Lithuania. As EU citizens, preconditions for a positive outcome, but the proposed they have a right to acquire property, access to social reforms on social benefits and free movement are security, right to be employed, and access to public services. problematic. There are about 100,000 Lithuanian living If Britain leaves the EU and the EEA and does not join the and working in UK, so changes that affect their rights are EFTA, these rights would be at risk. politically sensitive. In internal political discourse, it is argued that the EU was created to promote cooperation and free movement. Other issues are almost absent from public discussions, perhaps with an exception of very general statements that creating a “two-speed” Europe is a threat to European unity and Lithuania’s interests. Lithuania is very supportive of the idea of increased competitiveness.

Which member states matter most to Lithuania in the discussions?

Most attention is given to what is said in Germany, and to a lesser extent Poland, but this does not necessary translate into a strong influence on Lithuanian position.

Where is the Lithuanian debate on this?

The issue is almost absent from public discussions. There are some bureaucratic consultations within specific ministries but they do not attract public or even media‘s attention. There were only very few commentaries in the media on the issue, usually by Lithuanian representatives in the European Parliament. If there is any discussion, it relates the Brexit question to the issue of European unity, and what this means for the EU’s position towards Russia.

20 Where isthedebateinLuxembourgonthis? Which memberstatesmattermostto Luxembourg inthediscussions? Luxembourg's stancegoingintotheEU

European issuesarerarelydebatedinLuxembourg,and France andGermanyareLuxembourg’snaturalalliesin its cardsquiteclosetochest EU. Butithassofar played The publicdebateinLuxembourgonthisissueisvery to theUKleaving The governmentisverymuchopposed UK deal,itseemslikelythatLuxembourgwillworkwith Council meeting concern throughout this process has been to preventthisto been processhas this throughoutconcern do noteasilybecomepoliticised.Therenegotiationprocess renegotiation process damaging any of the founding the of any damaging process renegotiation regarding theproposedUK-EUdeal. Luxembourg’s most instinctivelypro-EuropeanpopulationsintheEU. most EUnegotiations,andsinceGermanyislikelytobe this effort. to on this,itislikely case work aroundsineach prevent to support comingtoagreement. subdued, ifnotnonexistent.Luxembourghasoneofthe has sofarprovednoexceptiontothisrule. pushing tofindaworkabledealinthediscussionson principles oftheEU,andinsofarasTusk’sdealappears Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues LUXEMBOURG Summer 2015     Key issuestowatchforUKcitizensin Luxembourg In 2015,6,559 UKcitizenswerelivinginLuxembourg. and employers would have first to demonstrate that noEU and employerswouldhavefirsttodemonstrate Currently they benefit from an EUpreference rule, which citizen couldbefound todoa job, and then have towait could bestiff. German commuters French, Belgianand from competition would no longer apply to UK citizens in the evnt ofaBrexit, citizens inthe to UK no longerapply would for three weeks beforeaskingforanofficial certificateto weeks for three be a significant disadvantage for UK citizens, astheir citizens, for UK asignificantdisadvantage be to employ athirdbe allowedcountry national. This could February 2016     21 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD MALTA

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Malta's stance going into the EU Council and tensions between subsidiary rights and a federalised meeting Europe abound, there is little discussion of the implications of a Brexit or renegotiated British membership. Malta is extremely nervous about the prospect of the UK leaving the EU. When compared with other EU nations, Key issues to watch for UK citizens in Malta Malta is particularly vulnerable to the potential economic effects of a Brexit. Exports to the UK made up 7.8 percent According to UN data, 12,046 British nationals are resident of Maltese GDP in 2013, FDI Stock in the UK made up 11.8 in Malta. As members of the EU, British nationals are percent of GDP in 2013, and UK Bank Links as a percent of granted access to a number of entitlements in Malta, GDP (this is the sum of UK bank liabilities and bank claims) including property ownership, contributory social security, were 67 percent in 2014. As a result, Prime Minister Joseph healthcare and education, that they may stand to lose in Muscat has announced that Malta is “ready to discuss the case of a Brexit. However Maltese membership of the flexible conditions for Britain.” Commonwealth and a series of bilateral arrangements (i.e. the Convention on Social Security between the Government Nevertheless, negotiations over social benefits and free of the Republic of Malta and the Government of the United movement will be stickiest from the Maltese perspective. Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; the The interests of a large number of Maltese nationals residing Reciprocal Health Agreement; and the Malta-UK Double and working in the UK, along with the value of remittances Tax Convention) on entitlements between Malta and the UK from those nationals, are of great economic and political would certainly soften the blow of a Brexit to the interests of importance. Thus, the premise that the UK can discriminate British nationals in Malta. against EU nationals, even if only for a limited period of time, is a hard one for the Maltese political establishment as well as the Maltese man-in-the-street to swallow. On the other side of this equation however are the twenty thousand foreign nationals (mostly EU nationals) residing in Malta and the incentive to scale back the benefits that they are currently entitled to. Much will depend on the exact nature of the “emergency brake” on benefits and under what conditions exactly that brake will be pulled.

Which member states matter most to Malta in the discussions?

As Malta’s most important allies within the EU, the UK and Italy’s positions are the most likely to influence that of Malta in the discussion at the Council meeting.

Where is the Maltese debate on this?

In short, there is little public debate on Brexit in the Maltese parliament, in the media, or on the streets. While discussions on EU policy (i.e. irregular migration policy) 22 Which memberstatesmattermosttothe The Dutch stance going into the EU Council EU the into going stance Dutch The Netherlands inthediscussions?

Euro countries in Eurozone decision making. The current The Netherlands and theUKshare thesame position interest and economic political a strong has Netherlands The The factthattheNetherlandsholdsEUpresidency meeting Dutch presidency of the EU. Regarding social benefits and benefits social Regarding EU. the of presidency Dutch Netherlands support the UK attempts to further liberalise further to attempts UK the support Netherlands a mechanism which enables a response in case of exceptional in case a response enables a mechanismwhich agreements. This fits neatly in the priorities ofthecurrent Germany andFrance.Regarding socialwelfareandfree economic governancetheNetherlands willbeinlinewith deal broker.Itislikelythatin relationtotheissueof discriminatory andunderspecificconditions. creation of the also supports child benefits.TheNetherlands non- mechanism forinvolvementof the regarding especially of southandeast Europeancountrieswhich are relatively sovereigntyonthe issue.government WhileDutch the movement, therewillbeunderstanding forthepositions means thattheDutchpositionwillberelativelymoderate the positionsofotherEurozone countries,particularly the welcomes it time same current arrangements.Atthe the trade conclude to and deregulate to market, internal the there canbean assurance thatthedealwillnotinhibit the interests ofEurozone and non-Eurozone countries, if in keeping theUKwithinEU. It istherefore keen to in ordertoenabletheDutchgovernmentactasa situations ofinflow ofworkers from within theEU, ifnon- supports theproposals regarding economic governance in proposed measures to prevent misuse and the indexation of indexation and the misuse prevent to measures proposed proposal isconsideredasarealisticcompromisebetween details, the on depends much that emphasises it principle, listen to British concerns, but without compromising on large exporters oflabour. free movement, the Netherlands is committedtorespecting free movement, the Netherlands the functioning oftheEurozone.Regardingcompetitiveness, basic principlesofEuropeanintegration. Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues THE NETHERLANDS Summer 2015     Where istheDutchdebateonthis? According toUNdata49,549 UKcitizens live inthe Key issuestowatchforUKcitizensinthe Netherlands EEA and doesnot join theEFTA, theserights wouldbeat There isverylittlepublicandpoliticaldebateonthe Netherlands. As EU citizens, they have the right to property to right have the they citizens, As EU Netherlands. education and healthcare.IfBritain education leaves theEUand servicesincludingpublic to access and rights employment ownership, and access to social security. They also have negotiations, norinthedesirabilityofrenegotiations. risk. issue. Thereisneithermuchinterestinthecontentsof February 2016     23 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD POLAND

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Poland's stance going into the EU Council and security arguments being used on both side of the meeting argument for which alliance should constitute a priority. For ordinary Poles, the Brexit issue limits itself mostly to The Law and Justice government of Poland firmly supports the issue of Polish workers in the UK. Poles generally are the UK’s membership in the EU, its scepticism over against Brexit, however the great majority of them will not integration, and its concern to keep national sovereignty approve substantial constraints on the rights of their co- as a firm principle within the EU. This explains in large nationals living in the UK. part the evolution in the Polish position since the change of government last autumn, from an amber-red view of the Key issues to watch for UK citizens in four baskets to the current green-amber take. The sticking Poland point for Poland remains the fourth basket on social welfare and free movement and it is unclear whether the proposal According to UN data, 34,545 Britons are currently in Tusk’s letter goes far enough in assuaging the concerns of registered as living in Poland, with access to services, social the Polish government on the impact on the current stock of security, property ownership, and crucially, the right to Polish workers currently in the UK. The Polish government reside and work as EU citizens. has repeatedly stated (including after David Cameron’s visit to Warsaw in the first week of February) that it will never accept a limitation of the rights of Poles working in the UK but it is ready for negotiations and certain concessions. It is likely to use the Council discussions to try to ensure that the provision regarding in-work benefits is restricted just to the British case and should not form a general regulation that could also be implemented by other EU member states.

Which member states matter most to Poland in the discussions?

At the end of January 2016, the Polish national- conservative government declared the UK to be Poland’s main strategic ally, replacing Germany’s longstanding position in this role. In addition, the Visegrad group – Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland – will have a strong bearing on Poland in the discussions, since they are an important reference point for the Law and Justice government. Within this quartet, the Czech Republic and Hungary are viewed as particular allies.

Where is the Polish debate on this?

There is quite a heated political debate about the shift in strategic alliances away from Germany and towards the UK - with Brexit viewed in this context - with trade 24 Which memberstatesmattermostto Portugal inthediscussions? Portugal's stance going into theEUCouncil Viewing the UK as a longstanding ally, who they are very are they ally,who asalongstanding UK the Viewing meeting Romania andLithuania,allvery warythattheUKistrying Brussels’ red-tapeandhyper-regulatoryinclination.It alternatives.believesareBritainthere PortugalWhilefor Portugal willworkwithdifferentcountrieson Schengen eurozone andofthe Portugal isamemberofthe and discriminatingagainsttheir nationalcitizenslivingin area, Britainisnot. WhilePortugalseesitsparticipation reform agenda.While on the UK the place different a very go so far and it has particular concerns about the social aboutthe go sofarandithasparticularconcerns economic modernisation and prosperity to the single market, single the to modernisation andprosperity economic does not.While Portugal closelyassociates thecountry’s economic governanceandcompetitiveness–Portugal does. As such, Portugal’s wish to support the UKcan only questioned national identity, for Britain itdoesand still will beclosetoGermanyandItaly.Itagreeswiththem movementproposalandtheirrelationship and free welfare member stateslikePoland,theCzechRepublic,Bulgaria, movement matters–Portugalwillbeclearlyworkingwith the UK. to underminethefundamental principleoffreemovement that theeconomicandmonetaryunionrequiresdeeper to fundamentalEUprinciples. the European integration process never fundamentally integration, butalsoacceptsthatthisshouldbevoluntary in theEUascentraltoitsowndemocraticregime, Britain sees itspositiononsovereigntyasalignedwiththesame have beenvery guardedinrelationtotherenegotiation keen toseeremainintheEU,Portuguesediplomats process. However, fundamentally, Portgual finds itself in itself finds Portgual fundamentally, However, process. partners, butalsowithFrance.Onsocialbenefitsandfree parts oftherenegotiationagenda.Onmattersrelatedto for statesoutsidetheeuro,andfavoursareductionon Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues PORTUGAL Summer 2015     Where isthePortuguesedebateonthis? As EUcitizens, theyare entitledtoemployment, social in Portugal. live citizens British data, 17,798 UN to According Key issuestowatchforUKcitizensin Portugal Yet, whilepublicandpoliticaldebateontheissuehasbeen In Portugal,sofar,theUK’sinitiativetorenegotiateits elections in2015,andataEuropeanlevelthefalloutfrom organised todiscusstheissueandPortuguesepoliticians relationship withtheEUhasnotbeenfocusofmuch with pressingdomesticmatters,includingcomplex the main,Portuguesenewspapercolumnistshavewritten that theBritishrenegotiationcouldhave,particularlyifits the eurozoneandrefugeecrisisfutureofSchengen. intermittently (mostlybyquotingnewsagencies)andin it (occasionally)inpublic.Portugalhasbeenpreoccupied survivors’ benefits. including and arangeofotherbenefits security, healthcare have tendedtodownplaythetopicwhenspeakingabout public debate.Portuguesemediahascoveredthetopic unemployment benefits, sickness cash benefits, child care child benefits, cash sickness benefits, unemployment public opinionandpoliticiansoftheseriousimplications little aboutit.Uptonownomajorpubliceventhasbeen leads toBrexit. limited, thereisanacuteawarenessamongPortuguese benefits, maternity or paternity benefits, invalidity benefits, benefits, maternity orpaternity benefits, February 2016     25 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD ROMANIA

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Romania's stance going into the EU Council Key issues to watch for UK citizens in meeting Romania

Throughout the negotiations, Romania has been convinced UN data states that 3,124 UK citizens are resident in by the UK’s competitiveness agenda, and in general has Romania and as EU citizens have an automatic right to work, had some sympathy with the UK scepticism about closer study, and through employment to access the contributory integration, because of its own fears about increasing health and social security schemes in the country. The right pressure for tax harmonisation. However, it is more wary to property ownership in Romania exists for both domiciled about the fourth basket, as it is very protective of both the and non-domiciled EU citizens but is much more complex principle of free movement and the potential impact of for non EU citizens, with conditions for foreign nationals of measures on Romanians working in the UK. other countries set out in bilateral treaties.

Which member states matter most to Romania in the discussions?

Germany’s voice is the most crucial one for Romania in the Council not only because of Germany’s influence within the EU but also because of strong cultural ties. The current Romanian president is an ethnic German. The US also has very strong resonance in Romania, so its views on the undesirability of Brexit carry significant weight.

Where is the Romanian debate on this?

There is very little debate in Romania on this issue, apart from in some elite foreign policy circles. In general Romanians find it hard to believe that the UK might actually consider leaving the EU but this has not led to significant coverage in the media or elsewhere.

26 Where istheSlovakiandebateonthis? Slovakia most to matter Which memberstates With forthcomingparliamentaryelectionsinSlovakia There isverylittlepublicdebateinSlovakiaonthisissue. meeting Prime Minister Robert Fico soughtassurances from David in thediscussions? and strong support for other aspects of Cameron’s agenda, agenda, ofCameron’s aspects other for support strong and Czech Republic,HungaryandPoland–onthisdossier,as to access restricting regarding deal any that Cameron deal at the Council meeting, but has concernsaroundbasket but at theCouncilmeeting, deal dominating Slovakiandebate. discussions. not be retroactive. Despite a strong desire to keeptheUKin, a strongdesire not beretroactive. Despite Slovakia's stancegoingintotheEUCouncil where thereisquitestrongoppositioninSlovakiato with manyother.Withinthisgroup,Poland’svoiceislikely the relocationquotasagreedinautumn2015,thatare to bethemostinfluentialforSlovakiagivenitsweightin in March,itisthis,alongwiththequestionofmigration, for the line as ared – around60,000 UK – isviewed in the impact on the current stock ofSlovakian citizens working Slovakia views the Tusk letter as a good starting pointfora as agood Slovakia views theTuskletter Slovakia alignscloselywiththeotherVisegradstates– Slovakian government. four. IndiscussionsinLondon inFebruary, Slovakian benefits for EU citizens living and working in the UK would UK the in working and living citizens EU for benefits Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues SLOVAKIA Summer 2015     4,890 UK citizens live in Slovakia. As EU citizens theycitizens EU As Slovakia. in live citizens UK 4,890 Key issuestowatchforUKcitizensin as workers,haveaccesstothesocialsecuritysystem. currently have the right to reside andwork, and ifregistered reside right to have the currently Slovakia February 2016     27 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD SLOVENIA

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Slovenia's stance going into the EU Council the one underlying the UK’s reform plan. There is limited meeting understanding for the position of the UK. The Slovenian parliament debated the UK reform package in December as The attention of the Slovenian government is currently part of a broader discussion on EU reform, but the debate firmly on the European migrant and refugee crisis which centred around issues of more immediate concern to is affecting Slovenia directly in terms of flows into the EU. Slovenia including the future of Schengen. In addition, the government is also in a relatively weak position in opinion polls and under heavy fire from the Key issues to watch for UK citizens in opposition for their handling of the refugee crisis at an Slovenia EU level. It is not likely that it will pursue an active policy with regard to the renegotiation package. But broadly, the 578 UK citizens live in Slovenia according to UN data. EU Slovenian government is content with the four areas set out citizenship gives these people the right to own properties, in Tusk’s letter although it retains some concerns around access social security benefits, their employment rights and the fourth basket, and the risk of compromise on one of the access to public services. Brexit would mean that the above four freedoms. mentioned rights would have to be renegotiated.

Which member states matter most to Slovenia in the discussions?

Germany and France are the most critical players for Slovenia on this dossier. The Slovenian economy depends heavily on Germany as one of the most important export markets for Slovene firms and a motor of growth in the central Europe. France is another important political and economic partner of Slovenia. However, the UK also matters to Slovenia: Slovenian exports to the UK is are worth €500 million a year. Slovenia will also keep an eye on the positions of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, known as the ‘Visegrad four’ but particularly Poland as the biggest of this group. Relations between Slovenia and the Visegrad group have been strengthening of late, and the group could play an important role in defining the position of the new member states on issues such as mobility, social rights and the principle of non- discrimination.

Where is the Slovenian debate on this?

There has been some limited coverage in Slovenian media of this issue, but is not a major subject of interest. Even though Slovenia is currently led by a progressive liberal party the world view of its voters is very different from 28 Where istheSpanishdebateonthis? mosttoSpain matter states Which member The Prime Minister’s Office view the deal in Tusk’s letter as in Tusk’s letter deal view the The PrimeMinister’sOffice In thepresentcircumstances of politicalinstability- meeting Difficult negotiations toformagovernmentinSpainarestill negotiations Difficult in thediscussions? a good basis for agreement but they are still conducting a conducting still are they but agreement for basis a good approval to an agreement. The foreign minister Margallo Given thepoliticalcontextinSpain,Spanish of theMinistry international lawoffice Council andfromthe government islikelytokeepalowprofile,andstayclose government willneedthesupportofparliamenttogive doubts if the current PopularParty interimadministration if the doubts could lastformonths. Inthisenvironment,there islittle composition ofthenewParliament meansthestalemate corruption scandals-thecurrent politicaldebateis100 change thisposition. definitive once it is confirmed bytheresponsible organ”). of ForeignAffairs.OnepossibilityisthatMarianoRajoy thattheactingon 18February.Statelegalservicesbelieve reached bytheoppositionpartiesincomingdayscould particular concernabout is There aspects. legal the of review Council EU the into going stance Spain's the implications of the social welfare/ freedom of movement freedom social welfare/ implications ofthe the in nomoodtoblockagreement–onlyadecisivedealbeing in thediscussionstoGermany,FranceandItaly.Spainis is competenttoadoptdecisionsattheEuropeanCouncil seat on thesediscussions. In thiscontextthere are legal signs the agreement ad referendum (“the signature becomes signature (“the ad referendum agreement signs the hung parliament,uncertaingovernment formationand European servicesofthe legal advice fromthe has requested party leader, Pedro Sanchez is currently in the driving inthe iscurrently Sanchez Pedro leader, party 2015. The Socialist in December elections the after underway percent focusedondomesticissues. Thefragmented living intheUK. basket for the between 200,000 and 500,000 Spaniards 500,000 200,000and between forthe basket Social benefitsandfreemovement Sovereignty Competitiveness Economic governance Basket ofissues SPAIN Summer 2015     Key issuestowatchforUKcitizensinSpain 308,821 UK citizens reside inSpainand canaccess reside 308,821 UKcitizens authorities estimate that as many as half of British expats in that asmanyhalfofBritishexpats estimate authorities employment, social and tax benefits and services as EU could changearoundtheCouncilmeetingthisweek. citizens. Mosthealthcare services are currently reserved popular interestintheissueandpoliticaldebateis primary in concern ofBritish Spain sinceSpanish residents limited tothinktanks,embassiesandsomemedia.This Spain areovertheageof50. for theholders oftheEUhealthinsurancecard. This isa February 2016     29 ECFR/162 February 2016 www.ecfr.eu BRITAIN IN EUROPE RENEGOTIATION SCORECARD SWEDEN

Basket of issues Summer 2015 February 2016 Economic governance   Competitiveness   Sovereignty   Social benefits and free movement  

Sweden's stance going into the EU Council Key issues to watch for UK citizens in meeting Sweden

Sweden’s strongest concerns in this process have always There are 24,950 UK citizens resident in Sweden. As an EU been around basket four on social welfare and free citizen you have the right to work, study or live in Sweden movement. The intense pressure which it has been under without a residence permit. People from outside the EU/ from the refugee crisis over the last eight months of the EEA who want to work, must have been granted a work renegotiation period may have somewhat increased public permit before entering Sweden. To obtain a work permit, sympathy for restrictions of some types on immigration In you must have an offer of employment in Sweden. Your Sweden, but the EU principle of freedom of movement is employer must have advertised the job in Sweden and the still seen as very important, and any move that counters this EU/EEA and Switzerland for at least ten days before the will not be supported. The detail of the deal on basket four offer of employment was made. will matter to Sweden.

Which member states matter most to Sweden in the discussions?

There is no indication that Sweden intends to stand out in the discussions on renegotiation at the Council meeting. It has a strong political and economic interest in keeping the UK in the EU and is likely to stick closely to Germany in the talks as Merkel tries to find an acceptable deal that achieves this.

Where is the Swedish debate on this?

Sweden’s national debate is currently focussed on the refugee crisis which consumes a large proportion of airtime on both domestic and European issues. Partly as a result, the possibility of Brexit has received some coverage but there has not been a major discussion of the renegotiation process.

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