californiawinning.com

DEL MAR RACE COURSE-THOROUGHBREDS, JULY 18- SEPEMBER 3, 2018

Message Board to My Subscribers Welcome back to Del Mar, our summer “Turf and Surf.” It will be great to see jockeys whose names we recognize, $100000 claimers, turf racing and the likes of Mike Smith, Corey Nakatani and Kent Desormeaux in the irons again…

Brief History of Del Mar

I bet you can’t guess who wrote this ditty, which did NOT make it to the top of the charts in the 1930’s:

“Where the turf meets the surf, Down at old Del Mar, Take a plane, take a train, take a car, There’s a smile on every face And a winner in each race, Where the turf meets the surf at Del Mar”

Well, that would be one Bing Crosby, crooner, sponsor, proponent and benefactor of Del Mar (you youngsters are saying, “WHO?”). In fact, Bing met each entering fan coming into Del Mar on opening day, July 3, 1937.

Here is something cool. On August 12, 1938, when horse racing was America’s second most popular sport (pre-PETA), behind only MLB, the Del Mar powers-that-be arranged a match race between Sea Biscuit and another famous thoroughbred, Ligaroti, where the winner took all of $25,000. (Both horses were actually owned by Binglin Stables, in turn owned by Crosby and Howard.) Se Biscuit won, but only by a nose.

The track soon became the playground of a plethora of Hollywood stars. Among them (in addition to Crosby, part owner of the track and a horse owner) were Mickey Rooney, Clark Gable (a horse owner), Rita Hayworth (she has a big fan among my subscribers), Buster Keaton, Mary Astor, Betty Grable, Barbara Stanwyck, Robert Taylor, Ava Gardner, Dorothy Lamour, Elizabeth Taylor, Cecil B. de Mille, the Marx brothers, Charlie Chaplin and many others who ensured that they were not identified. Jack Dempsey once posed with a crew of jockeys, and that is a comical picture which you can find on the internet.

Bing himself oversaw the construction of the Del Mar clubhouse, wanting it to be as lavish as possible considering the “Hollywood elite” visitors it was to entertain.

During WWII, the track was shut down. It was used as a Marine training facility, and later in the war, to actually build B-17 bombers. In the 1990’s Del Mar undertook major renovations. The grandstand of the old Del Mar Fairgrounds was finally replaced, and substantially upgraded. At the millennium Del Mar realized that the only way to expand its market was to attract a younger clientele. They employed social media and other devices (like bands and non-horse stuff) to attract the younger crowd, and they say it worked.

By 2014 major improvements to the track surfaces were completed. The result: the turf course was widened by a not insignificant 80 feet and they eased the curve coming out of the turf chute to permit larger turf fields. By 2015, the main track was also renovated, and El Segundo sand, said to be more “drought-friendly.” It is a natural soil which apparently tends to promote more “balanced drainage.”

Extended/Discounted Subscription Inquiries A number of subscribers have requested a “deal” on extended subscriptions, for the convenience of the subscriber and to enable him/her to secure a discount. I appreciate the loyalty of all subscribers, and especially those who profess such a level of faith in californiawinning.com to want to sign up long- term.

So here we go. Several of you have signed up for one calendar year, which will cost only $200 instead of the monthly cost that would have been incurred ($240).

I would also issue 180 calendar (six month) day subscriptions, discounted to $100 instead of what would have been $120. In order to pay these subscription fees, one would have to go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston.

If you have a PayPal account, I believe you can also make such payments simply by sending a PayPal payment to my email, [email protected]. If neither of those methods works for you, you could send me a check, as several of you do already. Just email me at the address above to request my street address so I can monitor your payment. Again, many addititional thanks to those of you who have seen fit to sign up long-term.

July 4 Results

Well, we had eight of nine races correct, and we are predicting winners at Los Alamitos at an astounding 85% rate. Let’s make some more ca$h!

Weight Allowances, Redux

Do you recall when Evin Roman had his various weight allowances as he progressed through the apprentice process as authorized by the rules of the California Horse Racing Board? I am sure that you do, it wasn’t that long ago.

You probably also recall that at various points throughout his apprenticeship his win percentage approached .20, and I am sure it reached .19. Now, his win percentage is .13 of late. That is a substantial reduction in effectiveness: like about one third less wins.

I am not trying to make an example of Evin Roman: he is still a fine jockey. He even won a few stakes races early in his career (right after his apprenticeship ended). The interesting issue is, what could be causing this huge decline?

There are at least two possibilities. One is that he is not getting the quality of mounts that he used to. I have always held that the handicapping process at its best looks first at the horse, and then the trainer, and then, third of all, the rider.

The other stark possibility is that the weight allowance afforded apprentices might be even more significant than we thought at first blush. Note that these days apprentices like Asa Espinoza (.12) and E Payeras (.15) are faring quite well, not to mention Kellie McDaid (.24) who primarily rides horses.

There is no definitive way that I know of (I am far from a mathematician or statistician) to determine the precise cause of Roman’s stark decline. As for me, I think it has a lot to do with him no longer benefitting from any weight allowance.

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Well, here we go, have a winsome day! ______

Horsecallany It is said by the “horse whisperers” that horses probably do not recognize their name, as dogs do. However, they can routinely be trained to come when called, and that is likely a product of the fact they do recognize familiar faces and voices. P.S.1 Naturally, I do realize that horses I label as “well-rested” or the like could possibly be coming off an injury or ailment. However, those many of you who follow the race results closely and go back and reconnoiter as I do also recognize that there is a definite connection between rest, especially lack thereof, and ultimate performance, which factor statistically seems to mitigate against, though not necessarily prevent a win. P.S. 2 The rest factor in thoroughbred racing may mean more than we think…for example, vis-a-vis The Belmont, on paper Gronwkowsi did not look good at all to me…yet he finished second, in his U.S. debut, with that wild, huge animated intoxicated crowd screaming at him, less than two lengths behind Justify. Remember, he raced on about ten weeks’ rest, while the maximum rest for anyone else in the field was 35 days.

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“SPECIAL PROJECTS” (reprised, new pricing) I just got a “special project” for Gulfstream for Sunday’s race card. I have decided to reduce my price for any special project from $35 to $30.

If any of you happens to be going to a track other than our “home” tracks--- Del Mar, Los Alamitos (briefly) and Santa Anita--- and you want me to handicap that day’s races at the “foreign track,” if you give me a few days’ notice I may, depending on my personal schedule, be able to handicap that track for you. The only problem is, since it will probably be a one-off analysis (i.e., you will almost certainly be the only buyer) I would have to charge you $30. Which works out to just about minimum wage for me since I will spend at least four-five hours handicapping and writing, more time proportionately if it is a twelve- race day like Gulfstream often has.

Anyway I like to see how my expertise works in other locations, so I am willing to take this kind of thing occasionally on if my schedule allows. Obviously this applies equally if you are simply choosing to BET A FOREIGN TRACK ON- LINE for some reason and want a “second opinion.” ______

Horsecellany II--- Some Basic Horsie Math/Statistics

Keep in mind that each discrete horse race on a race card is an independent event, in that the winner of one race has no tangible effect on the winner of another race. (For this reason, I never state a so-called “Best Bet” of the day, which makes no sense to me, as we handicappers do not rate a horse in one race against a horse in another.)

Given, that, here are the horsie statistics that we need to keep in mind when wagering horizontally. For the purposes of this demonstration, and for simplicity’s sake, let us assume there are ten races, and each race has exactly eight entries.

The following is the number of possible outcomes for two races up to eight races:

Two races- Daily Double= 82 , 64 Three races- 83, 512 Four races- Pick 4= 84 , 4,096 Five races- Pick 5= 85, 32,768 Six races- Pick 6= 86, 262,144 (this is why you should never make that bet!) Seven races- 87, 2,097,152 Eight races, like californiawinning.com successfully handicapped on Monday: 88, 16,777,216

At least two essential, critical points arise out of this exercise.

As for the eight races that californiawinning.com correctly predicted the winners of, there were 16,277,216 possible outcomes. Yet, we hit the mark by naming a grand total of 18 horses. Pretty good aim, huh?

Next point: now we see how hard it is even to hit either the Pick 4 (4,096 possible outcomes) or Pick 5 (32,768 possible outcomes). Yet, californiawinning.com accurately predicts both the Pick 4 and Pick 5 with some regularity. ______

Del Mar Race Course, Summer of 2018 (through Labor Day)

FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to “predict the future,” because it ain’t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn…so please stick with me if there are a few “speed-bumps” along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a “firm” turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded “fast.” Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my “Handicapping Tips” No. 6, “What If It Rains on Race Day?,” in this regard…

Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race…I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively…however, as we all know, “a horse is a horse, of course, of course” on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day’s analysis and you will receive the next racing day’s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you.

Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h…

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For only $5 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather “elegant” summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders…

Likeable Longshots: (there are several each racing day…)

NOTE: californiawinning.com is TEMPORARILY suspending “Today’s Free Selections” …best of luck, and remember, you can purchase today’s analysis for less than that Daily Racing Form or Racing Digest will cost you…thanks for understanding…

***** californiawinning.com© all rights reserved To see the entire analysis of today’s card---including the all-important Likeable Longshots®--- go to “Today’s Full Race Card” at californiawinning.com and click the $5 button, and use your debit or credit card, or your PayPal account to pay $5, or, if you have a PayPal account, go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment there (it’s easier)…OR BETTER YET---

Better yet, why not subscribe now, it’s about 50 cents per day……far less than what you pay for The DRF or Racing Digest and more informative to boot, since they don’t give you a graded handicap, and its less than what the touts charged for their little blue card when this track opened on December 25, 1934…So, to subscribe for 35 calendar days’ analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on “Today’s Full Race Card” and pay a mere $20 through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR if you have a PayPal account, for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment… Or to save money, you can subscribe for six months for $100, or for one year for $200 (30% discount). Thanks very much. SPECIAL OFFER: IF YOU ARE A NEW SUBSCRIBER THIS SUMMER, YOU WILL RECEIVE SIX WEEKS’ COVERAGE FOR

THE PRICE OF FOUR…

Today’s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today’s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you.

Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: [email protected] Also, check out my free “Handicapping Tips” at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, “Probabilities” (Pick 6)”… It’s a can’t miss…and the latest one, “What If It Rains on Race Day?” ______