Californiawinning.Com DEL MAR RACE COURSE
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californiawinning.com DEL MAR RACE COURSE-THOROUGHBREDS, JULY 18- SEPEMBER 3, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers Welcome back to Del Mar, our summer “Turf and Surf.” It will be great to see jockeys whose names we recognize, $100000 claimers, turf racing and the likes of Mike Smith, Corey Nakatani and Kent Desormeaux in the irons again… Brief History of Del Mar I bet you can’t guess who wrote this ditty, which did NOT make it to the top of the charts in the 1930’s: “Where the turf meets the surf, Down at old Del Mar, Take a plane, take a train, take a car, There’s a smile on every face And a winner in each race, Where the turf meets the surf at Del Mar” Well, that would be one Bing Crosby, crooner, sponsor, proponent and benefactor of Del Mar (you youngsters are saying, “WHO?”). In fact, Bing met each entering fan coming into Del Mar on opening day, July 3, 1937. Here is something cool. On August 12, 1938, when horse racing was America’s second most popular sport (pre-PETA), behind only MLB, the Del Mar powers-that-be arranged a match race between Sea Biscuit and another famous thoroughbred, Ligaroti, where the winner took all of $25,000. (Both horses were actually owned by Binglin Stables, in turn owned by Crosby and Howard.) Se Biscuit won, but only by a nose. The track soon became the playground of a plethora of Hollywood stars. Among them (in addition to Crosby, part owner of the track and a horse owner) were Mickey Rooney, Clark Gable (a horse owner), Rita Hayworth (she has a big fan among my subscribers), Buster Keaton, Mary Astor, Betty Grable, Barbara Stanwyck, Robert Taylor, Ava Gardner, Dorothy Lamour, Elizabeth Taylor, Cecil B. de Mille, the Marx brothers, Charlie Chaplin and many others who ensured that they were not identified. Jack Dempsey once posed with a crew of jockeys, and that is a comical picture which you can find on the internet. Bing himself oversaw the construction of the Del Mar clubhouse, wanting it to be as lavish as possible considering the “Hollywood elite” visitors it was to entertain. During WWII, the track was shut down. It was used as a Marine training facility, and later in the war, to actually build B-17 bombers. In the 1990’s Del Mar undertook major renovations. The grandstand of the old Del Mar Fairgrounds was finally replaced, and substantially upgraded. At the millennium Del Mar realized that the only way to expand its market was to attract a younger clientele. They employed social media and other devices (like bands and non-horse stuff) to attract the younger crowd, and they say it worked. By 2014 major improvements to the track surfaces were completed. The result: the turf course was widened by a not insignificant 80 feet and they eased the curve coming out of the turf chute to permit larger turf fields. By 2015, the main track was also renovated, and El Segundo sand, said to be more “drought-friendly.” It is a natural soil which apparently tends to promote more “balanced drainage.” Extended/Discounted Subscription Inquiries A number of subscribers have requested a “deal” on extended subscriptions, for the convenience of the subscriber and to enable him/her to secure a discount. I appreciate the loyalty of all subscribers, and especially those who profess such a level of faith in californiawinning.com to want to sign up long- term. So here we go. Several of you have signed up for one calendar year, which will cost only $200 instead of the monthly cost that would have been incurred ($240). I would also issue 180 calendar (six month) day subscriptions, discounted to $100 instead of what would have been $120. In order to pay these subscription fees, one would have to go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston. If you have a PayPal account, I believe you can also make such payments simply by sending a PayPal payment to my email, [email protected]. If neither of those methods works for you, you could send me a check, as several of you do already. Just email me at the address above to request my street address so I can monitor your payment. Again, many addititional thanks to those of you who have seen fit to sign up long-term. July 4 Results Well, we had eight of nine races correct, and we are predicting winners at Los Alamitos at an astounding 85% rate. Let’s make some more ca$h! Weight Allowances, Redux Do you recall when Evin Roman had his various weight allowances as he progressed through the apprentice process as authorized by the rules of the California Horse Racing Board? I am sure that you do, it wasn’t that long ago. You probably also recall that at various points throughout his apprenticeship his win percentage approached .20, and I am sure it reached .19. Now, his win percentage is .13 of late. That is a substantial reduction in effectiveness: like about one third less wins. I am not trying to make an example of Evin Roman: he is still a fine jockey. He even won a few stakes races early in his career (right after his apprenticeship ended). The interesting issue is, what could be causing this huge decline? There are at least two possibilities. One is that he is not getting the quality of mounts that he used to. I have always held that the handicapping process at its best looks first at the horse, and then the trainer, and then, third of all, the rider. The other stark possibility is that the weight allowance afforded apprentices might be even more significant than we thought at first blush. Note that these days apprentices like Asa Espinoza (.12) and E Payeras (.15) are faring quite well, not to mention Kellie McDaid (.24) who primarily rides horses. There is no definitive way that I know of (I am far from a mathematician or statistician) to determine the precise cause of Roman’s stark decline. As for me, I think it has a lot to do with him no longer benefitting from any weight allowance. ____________________________________________________ Well, here we go, have a winsome day! ____________________________________________________ Horsecallany It is said by the “horse whisperers” that horses probably do not recognize their name, as dogs do. However, they can routinely be trained to come when called, and that is likely a product of the fact they do recognize familiar faces and voices. P.S.1 Naturally, I do realize that horses I label as “well-rested” or the like could possibly be coming off an injury or ailment. However, those many of you who follow the race results closely and go back and reconnoiter as I do also recognize that there is a definite connection between rest, especially lack thereof, and ultimate performance, which factor statistically seems to mitigate against, though not necessarily prevent a win. P.S. 2 The rest factor in thoroughbred racing may mean more than we think…for example, vis-a-vis The Belmont, on paper Gronwkowsi did not look good at all to me…yet he finished second, in his U.S. debut, with that wild, huge animated intoxicated crowd screaming at him, less than two lengths behind Justify. Remember, he raced on about ten weeks’ rest, while the maximum rest for anyone else in the field was 35 days. _________________________________________ “SPECIAL PROJECTS” (reprised, new pricing) I just got a “special project” for Gulfstream for Sunday’s race card. I have decided to reduce my price for any special project from $35 to $30. If any of you happens to be going to a track other than our “home” tracks--- Del Mar, Los Alamitos (briefly) and Santa Anita--- and you want me to handicap that day’s races at the “foreign track,” if you give me a few days’ notice I may, depending on my personal schedule, be able to handicap that track for you. The only problem is, since it will probably be a one-off analysis (i.e., you will almost certainly be the only buyer) I would have to charge you $30. Which works out to just about minimum wage for me since I will spend at least four-five hours handicapping and writing, more time proportionately if it is a twelve- race day like Gulfstream often has. Anyway I like to see how my expertise works in other locations, so I am willing to take this kind of thing occasionally on if my schedule allows. Obviously this applies equally if you are simply choosing to BET A FOREIGN TRACK ON- LINE for some reason and want a “second opinion.” ________________________________________ Horsecellany II--- Some Basic Horsie Math/Statistics Keep in mind that each discrete horse race on a race card is an independent event, in that the winner of one race has no tangible effect on the winner of another race. (For this reason, I never state a so-called “Best Bet” of the day, which makes no sense to me, as we handicappers do not rate a horse in one race against a horse in another.) Given, that, here are the horsie statistics that we need to keep in mind when wagering horizontally. For the purposes of this demonstration, and for simplicity’s sake, let us assume there are ten races, and each race has exactly eight entries. The following is the number of possible outcomes for two races up to eight races: Two races- Daily Double= 82 , 64 Three races- 83, 512 Four races- Pick 4= 84 , 4,096 Five races- Pick 5= 85, 32,768 Six races- Pick 6= 86, 262,144 (this is why you should never make that bet!) Seven races- 87, 2,097,152 Eight races, like californiawinning.com successfully handicapped on Monday: 88, 16,777,216 At least two essential, critical points arise out of this exercise.