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View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Texas A&M University FERTILITY PATTERNS AMONG THE MINORITY POPULATIONS OF CHINA: A MULTILEVEL ANALYSIS A Dissertation by CHIUNG-FANG CHANG Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY August 2003 Major Subject: Sociology FERTILITY PATTERNS AMONG THE MINORITY POPULATIONS OF CHINA: A MULTILEVEL ANALYSIS A Dissertation by CHIUNG-FANG CHANG Submitted to Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Approved as to style and content by: _____________________________ _____________________________ Dudley L. Poston, Jr. Mark A. Fossett (Chair of Committee) (Member) _____________________________ _____________________________ Rogelio Saenz Don E. Albrecht (Member) (Member) _____________________________ Rogelio Saenz (Head of Department) August 2003 Major Subject: Sociology iii ABSTRACT Fertility Patterns Among the Minority Populations of China: A Multi-level Analysis. (August 2003) Chiung-Fang Chang, B.A., Fu-Jen Catholic University; M.A., San Diego State University Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Dudley L. Poston, Jr. Sociological and demographic analyses of minority fertility in the United States have suggested that the processes of socioeconomic, cultural, marital, and structural assimilation will lead to convergence in fertility. So far, little research has used the assimilation approach to study the fertility of the minority populations of China, and also, no research has taken both individual-level and group-level characteristics as predictors. Using micro-data from the One Percent 1990 Census of China, this dissertation performs multilevel analyses, hierarchical generalized linear modeling, to examine the effects of assimilation and the one-child policy at both the individual level and the group level on minority women’s fertility. Several patterns are found in the multilevel analyses. First, the contextual characteristics of minority groups have strong correlations with fertility across thirty major minority groups in China. It suggests that community power and subculture have strong influences on women’s decisions regarding their number of children. Second, the iv effect of the one-child policy is positive and highly significant on minority women’s fertility. However, the strong policy effect does not cover the effect of assimilation. After controlling for policy, the impact of all the assimilation predictors, at both the individual and group level, still remains statistically significant. At the individual level, minority women’s educational level, occupational status, status of intermarriage, and migration status have significant and positive impacts on their fertility. At the group level, the levels of minority groups’ residential segregation, educational segregation, illiteracy, intermarriage rate, and their Moslem group culture have significant and negative impacts on individual women’s fertility. Third, several cross-level interactions in the rural models are not consistent with the complete models, which suggests that some indirect effects of assimilation on minority fertility may come from the urban minorities. Finally, in addition to the direct impacts of socioeconomic, marital, and cultural assimilation on minority fertility, several cross-level interactions are significant and indirectly affect women’s fertility. Findings reported in this dissertation indicate a successful integration of individual and contextual variables in analyses of minority fertility. The results contribute to the understanding of the assimilation impacts on minority fertility in China. v I dedicate this dissertation to the memory of my father, and to my mother, my husband, Cheng-hsien, and my sons, Samuel and Eric. vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am deeply grateful to the dissertation committee, Dr. Dudley L. Poston, Dr. Rogelio Saenz, Dr. Mark Fossett, and Dr. Don Albrecht. Their important comments and suggestions improved this dissertation at its stages of development. Especially, I have a great debt of gratitude to my mentor, Dr. Dudley L. Poston. Without his guidance and encouragement, this study would not be accomplished. I would like to thank Dr. Poston for leading me to the area of demography, and for his enormous patience and offering valuable comments, chapter by chapter, to this manuscript. In addition, I want to thank my colleagues, Shaheen Halim, Carol Walther, and Karen Glover, for spending their precious time on this manuscript. Their comments are greatly appreciated. Last but not least, I want to thank my dear husband, Cheng-hsien and lovely sons, Samuel and Eric, for tolerating my absence and late hours at work. Especially, my husband’s moral support and assistance are deeply appreciated. This dissertation is as much theirs as it is mine. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………… iii DEDICATION………………………………………………………………………. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS…………………………………………………………. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS……………………………………………………………. vii LIST OF FIGURES………………………………………………………………….. ix LIST OF TABLES…………………………………………………………………... xi CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION……………………………………………….………… 1 II ETHNICITY AND ITS POPULATION POLICY………………….……... 8 Historical Review of Ethnic Relations……………………….…..……. 8 The Definition of Minority Nationality…………………….…..……… 16 The Nationalities of China………………………………….……..…… 18 Minority Population Policy.…………………………...…….…..….…. 27 III VIGNETTES OF THE THIRTY ETHNIC GROUPS…………………..…. 32 Northeast China and Inner Mongolia……………………….………..… 32 Northwest China…………………………………………………..…… 36 Southwest China……………………..………………………………… 43 Central South and Southeast China………………………………..…… 58 IV PRIOR RESEARCH ON ETHNIC FERTILITY………………………...… 65 Development of Ethnic Fertility Studies………………..……………… 66 Assimilation Theory……………………………………………...…..… 72 V METHODOLOGY…………………………………………………………. 90 Data……………………………………………...……………………… 90 Measurement…………………………………...………………………. 91 viii CHAPTER Page Hypotheses…………………………………..………….………………. 95 Methods…………………………………………………………………. 96 VI ASSIMILATION AND FERTILITY: DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS……… 104 Descriptive Statistics………………………………………………..…. 104 Impact of Socioeconomic Assimilation………………...…………..…. 106 Impact of Marital and Cultural Assimilation………………………...… 110 Impact of Structural Assimilation…………………………………..…. 115 VII ASSIMILATION AND FERTILITY: MULTI-LEVEL ANALYSIS…….. 120 ANOVA Model………………………………………………….……. 120 Results of Complete Models……………………………………….…. 122 Results of Rural Models…………….………………………………… 139 VIII CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS………………………………… 143 Summary of Findings………………………………………………... 144 Conclusions and Implications……………………………………….. 152 REFERENCES………………………………………………………………….. 160 VITA…………………………………………………………………………….. 172 ix LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE Page 1 The CEB Distribution for 124,840 Minority Women in 1990, Compared with Univariate Poisson Distribution with Mean = 2.892…………….. 102 2 The Educational Level of Minority Population in Rural and Urban Areas, 1990……………………………………………………………. 108 3 Age-Specific Fertility in China Among Married Women of Reproductive Age, 1990………………………………………………. 110 4 The CEB Distribution of Four High Exogamous Groups— Mongolian, Manchu, Tujia, and She Nationalities, 1990……………… 112 5 The CEB Distribution of Four Low Exogamous Groups— Tibetan, Uygur, Kazak, Dongxiang Nationalities, 1990………………. 112 6 Interaction of Moslem on the Slope of Intermarriage and CEB………. 129 7 Interaction of Moslem on the Slope of Professional/Leadership Job and CEB…………………………………………………………... 129 8 Interaction of Moslem on the Slope of Permanent Migrant and CEB………………………………………………………………. 130 9 Interaction of Residential Segregation on the Slope of Policy and CEB………………………………….…………………………… 130 10 Interaction of Residential Segregation on the Slope of Intermarriage and CEB……………………………………………….. 133 11 Interaction of Residential Segregation on the Slope of Permanent Migrant and CEB…………………………………………………….. 133 12 Interaction of Residential Segregation on the Slope of Education and CEB……………………………………………………………… 134 13 Interaction of Illiteracy on the Slope of Policy and CEB…….……… 136 x FIGURE Page 14 Interaction of Illiteracy on the Slope of Intermarriage and CEB…..…. 137 15 Interaction of Illiteracy on the Slope of Professional/Leadership Job and CEB……………………………………………….………..… 137 16 Interaction of Educational Segregation on the Slope of Intermarriage and CEB………………………………………………... 138 xi LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 1 Population Size and Growth Rate of 55 Minority Groups, 1982 and 1990……………………………………………..………….…... 19 . 2 1990 Total, Han, and Minority Population of 30 Provinces, 1990….….…. 22 3 Percent of Married Women of First Marriage Age, for the Largest 15 Minority Groups, 1987 One Percent Sample Population………..…….. 26 4 Descriptive Statistics of Dependent Variable and Independent Variables Among 30 Minority Nationalities in China………………………….…… 105 5 Change of Educational Attainments from 1982 to 1990 for 18 Minority Nationalities with More Than One Million Persons……………………… 107 6 Mean Numbers of Children Ever Born (CEB) Between Exogamous Women and Endogamous Women: China, 1990……………………….… 114 7 The Mean CEB and Percentage of Structural Assimilation Measures for 30 Minority Groups, 1982 and 1990…………………………………. 117 8 Correlations Matrix of Women- and Group-Level Variables of Minority Women in China, 1990…………………………………………. 118 9 ANOVA Model…………………………………………………………… 122 10 The Fixed Effects of HGLM
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