Weather and Climate Resilience and Climate Weather Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT Environment and Sustainable Development Weather and Climate Resilience Public Disclosure Authorized Effective Preparedness through National Rogers and Tsirkunov Meteorological and Hydrological Services David P. Rogers and Vladimir V. Tsirkunov Public Disclosure Authorized Weather and Climate Resilience DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT Environment and Sustainable Development Weather and Climate Resilience Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services David P. Rogers and Vladimir V. Tsirkunov © 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 16 15 14 13 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. 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Weather and Climate Resilience • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0026-9 Contents Foreword xi Acknowledgments xiii About the Authors xv Abbreviations xvii Chapter 1 Overview 1 In This Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Why Are NMHSs Important? 3 What Are the Obstacles to Better NMHSs? 4 Key Principles for Modernizing NMHSs 6 Notes 10 References 11 Chapter 2 Coping with Weather, Climate, and Water Hazards 13 In This Chapter 13 Introduction 13 A Snapshot of the Impact of Natural Disasters 14 Warning Systems 16 Forecasting Systems 18 Arresting the Decline of NMHSs 19 What the World Bank Can Do 25 Notes 27 References 28 Chapter 3 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services 31 In This Chapter 31 Introduction 31 The Global Weather, Climate, and Water Enterprise 32 The Special Role of NMHSs 37 A Snapshot of Hydrological Services 42 Latest in Forecasting Operations 47 Limiting Factors in Forecasting 52 Weather and Climate Resilience • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0026-9 v vi Contents Best Practices in Service Delivery 53 A New Focus on Training 56 Creating New Partnerships 59 Top Priorities for Improving NMHSs 62 Notes 64 References 67 Chapter 4 Best Practices in Warning Systems 71 In This Chapter 71 Introduction 71 Effective Warning Systems 72 Core Elements of a Warning System 74 How Multihazard Warning Systems Work 76 Lessons from Shanghai’s Multihazard System 81 Notes 85 References 86 Chapter 5 Financing, Operating Models, and Regulatory Frameworks 89 In This Chapter 89 Introduction 89 Organization of NMHSs 90 Funding 90 A Need for Appropriate Operating Models 93 Demand Side: The Users 94 Supply Side: The Providers 96 How Economic Characteristics Fit In 97 Operating Models for NMHSs Services 101 Public-Private Partnerships 108 Legal and Regulatory Frameworks 112 Notes 117 References 118 Chapter 6 Guidance on Modernizing NMHSs 121 In This Chapter 121 Introduction 121 Modernizing Advanced Meteorological and Hydrological Services 122 Modernizing NMHSs in Developing Countries 123 World Bank Experience in NMHSs Modernization 125 Recommendations for Designing and Implementing Modernization Projects 129 A Changing Role for NMHSs 136 Notes 141 References 141 Weather and Climate Resilience • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0026-9 Contents vii Boxes 2.1 A Guide to Key Terminology 14 2.2 The World Meteorological Organization 18 2.3 Shortfalls in the Ability of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic to Monitor River Flows 21 2.4 Threats to the Free and Unrestricted Exchange of Data 23 2.5 The European INSPIRE Program 24 2.6 The World Bank’s GFDRR Hydromet Program 26 3.1 The World Meteorological Organization’s Structure 33 3.2 How Switzerland Supports the Global Climate Observing System 37 3.3 Technical Insight: Functions of the Global Data Processing and Forecasting System 38 3.4 Technical Insight: World Meteorological Organization Global Centers 39 3.5 Technical Insight: World Meteorological Organization Regional Specialized Centers 40 3.6 Technical Insight: Key Types of River Flow Measurements 43 3.7 Technical Insight: Ensuring the Usefulness of River Flow Data 45 3.8 Hydrological Monitoring in the United Kingdom 46 3.9 Technical Insight: How Weather and Climate Interact 48 3.10 Technical Insight: Using Radiosondes for Upper-Air Measurements 48 3.11 Technical Insight: Modern Forecasting Techniques 49 3.12 Technical Insight: What Is Nowcasting? 50 3.13 Technical Insight: The Uncertainties Surrounding Long-Range Forecasting 51 3.14 Kenyan Farmers Need Better Forecasts 55 3.15 Attributes of Service Delivery Defined by the World Meteorological Organization 56 3.16 Teaching Meteorologists How to Communicate with Economists and Sociologists 57 3.17 U.S. Efforts to Broaden Training in the Environmental Sciences 58 3.18 On-Site Delivery of Localized Forecasts at Heathrow Airport 60 3.19 Technical Insight: Oklahoma Mesonet 61 3.20 Technical Insight: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Projects 63 4.1 Technical Insight: The Nature of Disaster Risks and Hazards 73 4.2 Benefits of Partnerships for Early-Warning Systems 74 4.3 Ranking the Priority of Weather Warning Services 75 4.4 Cross-Cutting Issues for People-Centered Early-Warning Systems 77 4.5 Drawing Lessons from Hurricane Sandy 84 5.1 Organization and Staffing of National Meteorological Services 91 5.2 Funding Levels and Budgetary Pressures 92 Weather and Climate Resilience • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0026-9 viii Contents 5.3 Benefits of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services 95 5.4 Technical Insight: Quantifying Socioeconomic Benefits 96 5.5 Model I Example: U.S. National Weather Service 102 5.6 Model II Example: MeteoSwiss 104 5.7 Model III Example: U.K. Met Office 106 5.8 Model IV Example: New Zealand MetService 107 5.9 Model V Privatized Company: Holland Weather Services 109 5.10 Technical Insight: Public-Private Partnership between MeteoSwiss and Mobiliar 111 5.11 Technical Insight: Critical Elements of a Meteorological or Hydrological Law 114 6.1 Poland’s National Meteorological Service Overhaul 127 6.2 The Russian Federation’s Roshydromet Modernization 128 6.3 Lessons Learned from the Hydromet Modernization Process 130 6.4 Technical Insight: Component 1: Institutional Strengthening, Capacity Building, and Implementation Support 131 6.5 Technical Insight: Component 2: Modernization of the Observation Infrastructure and Forecasting 132 6.6 Technical Insight: Component 3: Enhancement of the Service Delivery System 133 6.7 Technical Insight: How to Encourage the Preparation of NMHSs’ Modernization Projects 134 6.8 Technical Insight: A Spotlight on Doppler Radar 135 6.9 Technical Insight: Types of Twinning Arrangements 137 6.10 Technical Insight: Nepal’s Results Framework 139 Figures 2.1 The Global Rise of Natural Disasters, 1975–2011 15 2.2 Average Annual Damages Caused by Reported Natural Disasters, 1990–2011 16 3.1 Activities of a Typical National Meteorological Service 32 3.2 World Meteorological Organization Global Network 34 4.1 Elements of a People-Centered Early-Warning System 75 4.2 Operational Flow of the Shanghai Meteorological Service Forecasting and Warning System 79 4.3 Severe Weather Warning Signals in Shanghai 80 4.4 Public Weather Service Work Flow 81 5.1 Weather and Climate Services Value Chain 94 5.2 Five NMHSs’ Operating Models 102 B5.6.1 The Swiss Federal Council’s Four Circles Model 104 6.1 World Bank Investments in Hydromet, Fiscal Years 1995–2011 126 Photos 3.1 Multiple observation systems 35 TI3.7.1 Vegetation obstructing water-level measurements 45 Weather and Climate Resilience • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0026-9 Contents ix 3.2 River gauging housing located on a tributary of the Mekong River, near Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.