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CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)-Initiate Hold: Opportunities, but Also Near-Term Headwinds

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CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)-Initiate Hold: Opportunities, but Also Near-Term Headwinds Company report FIG Conglomerates Equity – Hong Kong CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) Hold Initiate Hold: Opportunities, but also near-term headwinds Target price (HKD) 118.00 CKHH’s greater European and energy focus creates near- Share price (HKD) 117.80 Upside/Downside (%) 0.2 term challenges and long-term telecom opportunities Dec 2014 a 2015 e 2016 e HSBC EPS 8.07 7.99 8.68 Expect modest recurring profit growth; key potential catalysts HSBC PE 14.6 14.7 13.6 are EU mobile consolidation and US dollar weakness Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) NA NA NA Initiate with Hold – a complex company priced towards the Relative^ (%) NA NA NA top end of its peer group; we set our target price at HKD118, based on a 15% discount to HKD138 appraised value Restructuring – more complex than it looks. The CK Hutchison Holdings (CKHH) reorganisation created a 2014 proforma recurring profit slightly below the 2014 actuals for Hutchison Whampoa (HWL); however, this masks some important changes. The property 26 June 2015 business has been replaced with extra infrastructure, a bigger stake in Husky Energy and Mark Webb* non-cash income of HKD5.8bn from accounting adjustments to depreciation and interest. Head of Conglomerate and Transport Research, Asia Pacific Greater near-term challenges than the old HWL, but some key opportunities. CKHH’s The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking profit is more focused on businesses outside of Hong Kong and mainland China and 70% is Corporation Limited +852 2996 6574 non-HKD/USD. As a result, currency risk has risen; lower oil prices have also depressed [email protected] Husky’s earnings. Yet the restructuring generates some important opportunities as it helps Neale Anderson* provide a platform to participate in the consolidation of the European mobile telephone Head of Telecoms Research, Asia industry. We believe retail and European telecoms offer the best underlying growth Pacific The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking prospects, while ports growth has stalled and Husky forecasts are under pressure. Corporation Limited +852 2996 6716 We forecast recurring net profit will fall 1% y-o-y in 2015e and rise at a 6% CAGR over [email protected] 2014-17e because of the near-term oil and currency headwinds. HSBC’s forecast for 2015e is in line with consensus, but our forecasts for 2016-17e are 9-15% below. Stripping out the View HSBC Global Research at: non-cash accounting adjustments, we forecast underlying earnings will rise 11% and 14% http://www.research.hsbc.com y-o-y in 2016e and 2017e. In contrast, consensus forecasts imply underlying growth of *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not 25% and 22% y-o-y, respectively – to us this looks overly optimistic. registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations We initiate coverage of CKHH with a target price of USD118 and a Hold rating. Our Issuer of report: The Hongkong and appraised valuation is HKD138/share and we apply a 15% discount to arrive at our HKD118 Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited TP. The discount we use is towards the tighter end of our conglomerate coverage and reflects the liquidity of CKHH plus potential upside from the consolidation of the mobile Disclaimer & market in Europe. At our target price, CKHH would trade at 14x 2016e PE or 16x after Disclosures stripping out non-cash accounting adjustments – its nearest peers trade at 10-13x 2016e. This report must be read The keys to a rerating are further progress in mobile consolidation and a weakening USD. with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in Index^ HANG SENG INDEX Free float (%) 70 the Disclosure appendix, Index level 27,405 Market cap (USDm) 58,631 and with the Disclaimer, RIC 0001.HK Market cap (HKDm) 454,670 Bloomberg 1 HK which forms part of it Source: HSBC Source: HSBC CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) Conglomerates abc 26 June 2015 Financials & valuation Financial statements Valuation data Year to 12/2014a 12/2015e 12/2016e 12/2017e Year to 12/2014a 12/2015e 12/2016e 12/2017e Profit & loss summary (HKDm) EV/sales 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 EV/EBITDA 9.9 9.5 8.4 7.5 Revenue 275,674 273,889 289,475 305,149 EV/IC 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 EBITDA 47,616 49,172 52,686 55,894 PE* 14.6 14.7 13.6 12.2 Depreciation & amortisation -17,557 -17,038 -18,421 -19,503 P/Book value 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 Operating profit/EBIT 30,060 32,134 34,265 36,391 FCF yield (%) 18% -2% 5% 6% Net interest -5,179 -5,313 -5,446 -4,947 Dividend yield (%) 9.8 2.2 2.4 2.7 PBT 124,056 45,254 48,890 53,851 HSBC PBT 44,817 45,433 48,786 53,497 Note: * = Based on HSBC EPS (fully diluted) Taxation -3,072 -3,657 -3,957 -4,351 Net profit 105,602 30,599 33,549 37,623 HSBC net profit 31,157 30,839 33,511 37,337 Price relative 121 121 Cash flow summary (HKDm) 119 119 Cash flow from operations 42,662 44,555 48,902 53,388 Capex -31,825 -31,916 -21,638 -20,498 117 117 Cash flow from investment -50,039 -45,993 -21,065 -19,925 115 115 Dividends -44,374 -11,363 -10,483 -11,491 Change in net debt 128,807 16,264 -13,680 -18,029 113 113 FCF equity 16,580 8,241 22,036 26,490 111 111 Balance sheet summary (HKDm) 109 109 Intangible fixed assets 213,324 213,324 213,324 213,324 Jun-15 CK Hutchison Holdings Rel to HANG SENG INDEX Tangible fixed assets 291,146 305,451 308,094 308,516 Current assets 303,728 286,894 305,548 328,578 Source: HSBC Cash & others 215,757 199,493 213,172 231,201 Total assets 1,029,724 1,050,900 1,082,060 1,116,539 Operating liabilities 97,204 96,590 101,954 107,347 Note: price at close of 24 Jun 2015 Gross debt 344,564 344,564 344,564 344,564 Net debt 128,807 145,071 131,392 113,363 Shareholders funds 414,224 433,459 456,525 482,657 Invested capital 495,237 509,586 511,840 511,870 Ratio, growth and per share analysis Year to 12/2014a 12/2015e 12/2016e 12/2017e Y-o-y % change Revenue -0.6 5.7 5.4 EBITDA 3.3 7.1 6.1 Operating profit 6.9 6.6 6.2 PBT -63.5 8.0 10.1 HSBC EPS -1.0 8.7 11.4 Ratios (%) Revenue/IC (x) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 ROIC 6.7 5.9 6.2 6.5 ROE 15.0 7.3 7.5 8.0 ROA 24.5 4.5 4.7 4.9 EBITDA margin 17.3 18.0 18.2 18.3 Operating profit margin 10.9 11.7 11.8 11.9 EBITDA/net interest (x) 9.2 9.3 9.7 11.3 Net debt/equity 24.7 26.7 23.1 18.9 Net debt/EBITDA (x) 2.7 3.0 2.5 2.0 CF from operations/net debt 33.1 30.7 37.2 47.1 Per share data (HKD) EPS reported (fully diluted) 27.36 7.93 8.69 9.75 HSBC EPS (fully diluted) 8.07 7.99 8.68 9.67 DPS 11.50 2.64 2.87 3.20 Book value 107.32 112.30 118.28 125.05 2 CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) Conglomerates abc 26 June 2015 Investment summary Restructured group faces near-term challenges but long-term opportunities from EU mobile industry consolidation We forecast a 6% CAGR in recurring net profit in 2014-17e; our forecasts are well below consensus in 2016-17e Initiate coverage with a target price of HKD118 and a Hold rating The restructuring of CKHH The Cheung Kong reorganisation successfully re-modelled the group and the 2014 proforma recurring profit for the new group parent, CK Hutchison Holdings (CKHH) is marginally below the actual recurring net profit reported by Hutchison Whampoa (HWL). But this masks some key changes (see figure 1). 1. Reconciliation of HWL 2014 actual recurring net profit to CKHH 2014 proforma recurring net profit 35,000 30,000 Property Depn + int 25,000 Ports Ports 20,000 Retail Retail 15,000 Infrastructure 10,000 Infrastructure 5,000 Energy Energy Telecoms Telecoms 0 Others Others -5,000 HWL actual CKHH proforma Telecoms Husky Infrastructure Retail Ports Other Depn + int Property Source: Company and HSBC estimates The property business has been replaced with extra infrastructure, a bigger stake in Husky Energy and importantly, some non-cash income from accounting adjustments to depreciation and interest costs which totalled HKD5,766m in the 2014 proforma result. During the reorganization process, CKHH wrote down the value of HWL’s fixed assets and telecom licenses so cutting depreciation by HKD3,226m, and re- 3 CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) Conglomerates abc 26 June 2015 measured upwards the value of long-term debt, which cut reported interest costs by HKD2,540m; the latter had no impact on cash interest costs. Earnings outlook depressed in near term by low oil prices and currency weakness Compared to the old HWL, underlying earnings are lower and profit more focused on businesses outside of Hong Kong and mainland China. This has created some near-term challenges as the currency risk within the group has risen and lower oil prices have depressed Husky’s earnings.
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