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The New World Wine Revolution – February 1996

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The New World Wine Revolution – February 1996 OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 71 The ‘New World’ Wine Revolution: Redefining market opportunities, competitiveness factors and Australia’s potential ROBERT NICHOLSON International Wine Associates Inc. s an overseas observer of your industry, I have always jected to receive US$1.5 billion by the year 2000 in the form Abeen deeply impressed by the industry’s commitment to of direct export refunds, product intervention, aid for the use quality and what has been required to achieve that quality. I of must and in acreage reduction programs. However, in the don’t believe any other wine-producing country in the so US the scant government support through the Market called ‘Old’ or ‘New World’ is thinking strategically like this, Promotion Program is currently under attack in Congress. setting their objectives and planning for the substantial cap- The Australian Government needs to understand these issues ital resources required to achieve them. and the support that the Australian wine industry will require In the context of the theme: ‘Can the Australian wine to achieve the industry’s year 2010 objectives. industry meet the export goal with a world surplus of wine and an Australian shortage’, I will briefly review world wine pro- ‘New World’ exporters 1990 duction and exports where the major ‘New World’ players, How did the US, Chile and Australia compare on the inter- Australia, the US and Chile rank in the world. Then I will national market in 1990? (Seeing California accounts for over focus attention on Chile and California as producers and as 95% of US wine exports, when we talk about US exports we export competitors to Australia. Each for their own different are referring to California wine exports.) reasons will be major competition as you work towards your In value California exported 150% more than Chile and 43% export goal. more than Australia in 1990. California also led the way with So, what is all this talk about the ‘New World’ wine revo- volume, with almost three times as much wine sold as lution? We are referring to a very fundamental shift that had Australia and more than twice as much as Chile. However, on started in the early/middle 1980s where wine consumption a per litre basis, Australia was establishing a better image by trends in key world markets began to move away from region- exporting better quality wine at a higher price—over US$2 a al wines (that are produced in what we call the ‘Old World’ and litre—while Chile was gaining a reputation with a lower price are difficult for consumers to understand) to varietal wines (that image that they have since exploited so successfully in major are produced in the ‘New World’ and have been easier to world wine markets. understand). By 1994 the situation had changed dramatically. Australia In large part this shift has come about because of technical leads the way in value, now 50% ahead of California and developments that have produced more approachable, con- 100% ahead of Chile, with a gain of over 200% since 1990 and sumer-friendly wines than many of the ‘Old World’ regional almost US$300 million in export sales. The Chilean revenues wines. Often these innovations originated in Australia or increased by almost 200% to over US$100 million, with a per other parts of the ‘New World’ but they are now impacting on litre price not much below California. Chilean volume is the way ‘Old World’ wines taste. almost level with Australia and both have increased substan- tially since 1990, while the US has grown only marginally. World wine production Australia is much more reliant on its major market, the The European Union producers, predominantly France, Italy UK, when compared to the importance of the largest market and Spain account for 62% of world wine production, while for both California and for Chile. Interestingly, California the US is only 6%, Australia 2% and Chile 1%. sells to their largest market at a lower price than Chile sells to Although world wine production has dropped from its peak their largest market. in recent years, consumption has declined by 20% and the world surplus still averages about 5.5 billion litres per year and USA 1994 major markets is growing as a percentage of total production. Consumption Between 1990 and 1994 California exports only increased has fallen sharply in most major wine-producing countries from 100 to 130 million litres. In 1994 export revenues to their over the past three decades. five major markets accounted for 67% of the value and 63% Of the total wine produced in the world, only 18% is of the volume. Canada grew by 11%, the UK continues to be exported. The EU countries lead the way with France and Italy important from a small, growing base and Asia grew by 19%. equal, accounting for about 50% of the total. The US has Interestingly, table wine exports increased by 14% in volume grown to 3% and Chile and Australia are equal with a 2% share for the first six months of 1995 with the UK running ahead into of world exports. Because of the small share the ‘New World’ first place at 1.7 million cases, up 54% over 1994. producers have, less than 10%, it may be that Australia’s real The challenge for California will be to keep the commitment competition is not in fact other ’New World’ competitors but to the export market during the current period of strong rather France, Italy and Spain. But this issue will need to be domestic market growth and wine shortages. For Californian addressed at a later date in detail. exports to achieve their potential in the next five years the Some of Australia’s competitors receive billions of dollars in international market needs assurance from producers that support from their governments. Even under the new provisions they are serious this time about building a viable export busi- of GATT, which will reduce subsidies, EU producers are pro- ness. With a total domestic wine market of almost 200 million cases annually there has been a history of start and stop in All cases quoted are in standard nine litres. Dollar figures are US Californian wine exports based on how the US market was per- dollars. Plantings are in hectares. Statistical resources are OIV and forming. the individual wine industry institutions in each country. In 1994 total US federal government support to wine WINE INDUSTRY JOURNAL ■ VOL 11 No 1 FEBRUARY 1996 72 OUTLOOK CONFERENCE exports was US$8.5 million. Since 1986, wine exports have Chile over 200 years ago and peaked in the 1930s when con- increased over five-fold and the percentage of funding to sumption reached 80 litres per capita. The Chilean wine exports has fallen from 12% to 3% in 1994. industry then slipped into decline due to a shift away from wine to other beverages. Chilean export markets Consumption is still declining, now at 30 litres per capita, Between 1990 and 1994 Chilean exports increased from 43 to and with a current population of 13 million, the domestic mar- 108 million litres. To fully understand this growth Chile only ket is limited to consumption of lower quality table wine, exported 16 million litres of wine in 1985. Last year exports generally sold in 1 litre Tetra bricks. There is a small growing were made up of 7.5 million cases of bottled wine, 38 million domestic market for ‘export’ quality wines, as they are called, litres of bulk and 244 thousand cases of sparkling wine. In terms but Chile cannot rely on domestic market growth to absorb sub- of value, wine exports have increased from US$11 million to stantial quantities of varietal wines. Although the country US$142 million since 1985. Last year the average per litre price has had a turbulent political history, a democratically elected dropped to US$1.33. The US market continues to represent government has been in power since 1989 and they are not 20% of volume as Chile effectively positions itself in the fast likely to want to change this current stability. growing, lower-priced fighting varietal market. The UK mar- Chile is blessed with a Mediterranean climate ideal for wine ket is set to grow quickly from the current small base as qual- grapegrowing, with considerable diversity in site and climate ity improves and Chile begins to fill the vacuum created by that is only just beginning to be understood now. increased prices from other producing countries and hit the key There is virtually unlimited land available at low cost for £3.99 price point. vineyard development. It has an abundant supply of water from Generally, Chile’s strength has been in producing good the Andes snow melt, plentiful cheap labour, no mildew or tasting, inexpensive wines from the four classic varieties and phylloxera, rapid improvements in viti- and vinicultural tech- in part this explained why they have been able to restrict the niques, a looming excess of the classic varieties due to recent importance of their top five export markets to only 55% of plantings with a limited domestic market and a buoyant value and volume. financial community willing to support industry develop- In the last two years Chilean quality has jumped dramatically ment. and will continue to improve in the next ten years and Also, Chile is currently negotiating to join Canada, the increase pressure in key export markets. While government USA and Mexico in NAFTA. Much to the concern of export promotional budgets are not yet significant and the Californian producers this could result in a reduction of US official export office, ProChile, usually manages any activity, duties for Chilean wine and will open the potentially large the government actively supports production of value-added Mexican market.
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