MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Disagreements Between Moscow, Damascus and Tehran OE Watch Commentary: On 18 March 2019 the military chiefs of , Iran, and Iraq held a trilateral military summit in Damascus, the Syrian capital. While the official aim of the summit was announced as coordinating joint efforts to fight terrorism, the announcement made after the summit suggested otherwise. The Iranian and Syrian military chiefs demanded the withdrawal of American forces from Syria and threatened Kurdish forces in Syria to accept the authority of Damascus. The trilateral summit and subsequent moves by Russia shed light on each of these countries’ interests in Syria. The accompanying passages, one from Rudaw, a news outlet supported by the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq and the other from a Turkish news outlet Haberturk analyze this trilateral summit and what it revealed. The Rudaw article claims that this is the first meeting among Syria, Iran and Iraq since the started in 2011. The article provides briefing excerpts from three military chiefs. First, Syrian Military Chief and Minister of Defense Ali Abdullah Ayyoub calls on forces who are present in Syria without the consent of the regime to leave Syria and notes that the regime has the means to drive all occupying forces out. Mr. Ayyoub also notes the Syrian regime’s objective to take back control of areas under Kurdish-led (SDF) either through negotiations or by military means. Second, Iranian Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri states that Iranian forces are in Syria with the consent of Damascus and says that they will remain in Syria as long as the Syrian regime allows. Finally, Iraq’s Chief of Staff speaks about the re-opening of the border between Iraq and Syria. According to the article from Haberturk, the absence of Russia at the trilateral meeting in Damascus indicates the existence of disagreements between Russia, Syria and Iran. The article highlights that the Russian Minister of Defense was in Syria the next day, meeting with the Syrian President. The author cites London based al-Arab newspaper saying that the Russian President has warned Damascus regarding Iranian attempts to form regional alliances. The article also notes that there are indications the Iranian and Syrian regimes are bothered by Russian accommodations of Turkey in Northern Syria including in Idlib. End OE Watch Commentary (Gündüz)

“… Iran and the government in Damascus are bothered by Russia’s attitude towards Turkey in northern Syria…”

Source: “İran, Irak ve Suriye arasında askeri zirve (A military summit between Iran, Iraq and Syria),” Rudaw, 19 March 2019. http://www. rudaw.net/turkish/middleeast/19032019

Ayyoub stressed that [Syrian territories] with no exception including Idlib will definitely and completely return to Syria’s control and domination. Ayyoub… the has the power and the means to remove US forces. Ayoup said “we will remove the US and all forces of the other states from Syria. We will either deal with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) through reconciliation or by rescuing the territories through military action.” Iran’s Military Chief of Staff Bagheri pointed out that Syrian sovereignty and independence must be respected [and] Iranian forces are here with the permission and authorization of the Syrian state. [Iranian] forces will remain in Syria as long as Syria wishes…

Source: Mehmet Akil Ersoy, “Moskova-Şam-Tahran hattında neler oluyor? (What is happening between Moscow-Damascus-Tehran?),” Haberturk, 27 March 2019. https://www.haberturk.com/yazarlar/mehmet-akif-ersoy-2548/2415838-moskova-sam-tahran-hattinda-neler- oluyor

…Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu went to Damascus to have a meeting on March 19 with Bashar al-Assad immediately after the meeting [between Iran, Iraq and Syria’s military chiefs]. … the fact that the trilateral meeting took place without the participation of Moscow and then Shoygu’s meeting with al-Assad are seen as signs of disagreements … between Moscow-Damascus-Tehran. …in the London based al-Arab newspaper the news regarding Shoygu’s visit to Damascus was run as Putin’s message to al-Assad [being] “warning regarding Iran”… Al-Arab claimed Iran’s military alliances in the region threaten not only the US, but also the interests of Russia. Moscow, who was afraid of this, wanted to warn the government in Damascus not to take any action east of the Euphrates and Idlib. Because the trilateral summit in Damascus focused not only on the region east of the Euphrates, but also on Idlib… Iran and the government in Damascus are bothered by Russia’s attitude towards Turkey in northern Syria…

OE Watch | May 2019 44