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Ajanta Pharmaceuticals (AJAPHA)

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Ajanta Pharmaceuticals (AJAPHA) Ajanta Pharmaceuticals (AJAPHA) CMP: | 1829 Target: | 2250 (23%) Target Period: 12 months BUY February 3, 2021 Branded generics continue to grow; margins strong Q3FY21 revenues grew 15.0% YoY to | 749 crore. Domestic sales grew 12.8% to | 220 crore whereas Emerging markets (branded) grew 19.2% YoY to | 286 crore. US sales remained muted (up 1.3% YoY) at | 161 crore. Africa Particulars tender business grew 57.1% YoY to | 77 crore. EBITDA margins improved P articular Am ount 372 bps YoY to 32.3% amid better gross margins. Hence, EBITDA grew Market Capitalisation | 15961 crore 30.0% YoY to | 242 crore. PAT grew 63.7% YoY to | 177 crore. Delta vis-à- vis EBITDA was mainly due to lower tax rate (18.0% vs. 38.6% in Q3FY20). Debt (FY20) | 46 crore Cash (FY20) | 205 crore Result Update Result Domestic formulations - Focus on new launches, few therapies E V | 15802 crore 52 week H/L 1879/961 Domestic formulations comprise 30% of FY20 revenues. The main E quity capital | 17.5 crore distinguishing factor is the uncanny knack of launching maximum number F ace value | 2 of first time launches with focus on new drug delivery system (NDDS). Out Price performance of 270+ actively marketed brands, ~60% were first time launches. However, a slowdown in dermatology segment due to increased competition in 2000 14000 existing products and slow offtake in new launches are some near term 12000 challenges. We expect domestic formulations to grow at ~11% CAGR in 1500 10000 FY20-23E to | 1047 crore to be driven by existing products & new launches. 8000 1000 Exports traction from EMs; US generics shaping up 6000 500 4000 2000 Ajanta derives export revenues (70% of FY20 revenues) from emerging markets like Africa (Franco Africa), Asia and from US. In emerging markets, 0 0 as opposed to common practice of forging alliances with regional pharma Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Aug-19 Aug-20 players, its front-end marketing team interacts directly with doctors. The US Aug-18 Ajanta Pharma(L.H.S) foray is also getting momentum. Despite volatility in African tender NSE500(R.H.S) business, overall export formulations CAGR has been a steady 11% in FY16- 20. We expect export formulations to grow at ~13% CAGR in FY20-23E to Key risks to our call | 2564 crore driven by Asia, African branded business, strong growth in US. USFDA regulatory challenges Volatility in tender business Valuation & Outlook Retail Equity Research Equity Retail Q3 results were a beat on all fronts on the back of strong growth in branded generic sales in Emerging markets and India along with better gross margin – performance. While the management expects subdued domestic growth in FY21 due to Covid-19, it expects high single digit growth for branded Research Analyst business in Asia, Africa (India, Asia, Africa- ~70% of sales) along with ~20% Siddhant Khandekar growth for US. On margins front, change in product mix (higher US [email protected] revenues) notwithstanding, the management expects ~200-250 bps improvement in FY21, going ahead, with improving operating leverage and Mitesh Shah moderating capex. Overall, calculated focus, healthy margins, return profile [email protected] Securities ICICI and lighter balance sheet are some key differentiators for Ajanta. The Sudarshan Agarwal company remains a play on global branded generics space. We maintain [email protected] BUY and arrive at our target price of | 2250 (earlier | 1960) based on 24x FY23E EPS of ~| 93.7. Key Financial Summary | Crore F Y20 F Y21E F Y22E F Y23E CAGR FY20-23 (%) R evenues 2587.9 2863.9 3261.8 3682.5 12.5 E B ITDA 683.3 948.9 1011.2 1178.4 19.9 EBITDA margins (% ) 26.4 33.1 31.0 32.0 Net P rofit 467.7 621.5 682.6 828.0 21.0 E P S (|) 53.4 70.3 77.3 93.7 P E (x) 34.6 26.0 23.7 19.5 EV to EBITDA (x) 23.3 16.6 15.3 12.8 R oC E (% ) 24.7 26.7 24.8 25.2 R O E (% ) 18.1 20.3 19.1 19.7 Source: ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Ajanta Pharmaceuticals ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Q3FY21 Q3FY20 Q2FY21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Comments YoY growth mainly due to strong growth in Asia and Africa tender Revenue 748.7 651.2 715.9 15.0 4.6 business Raw Material Expenses 168.7 169.1 155.4 -0.2 8.6 YoY Improvement mainly due to change in product mix and better gross margins (%) 77.5 74.0 78.3 344 bps -83 bps realisation Employee Expenses 136.2 120.4 130.5 13.1 4.3 Other Expenditure 202.2 175.8 155.8 15.0 29.8 Total Operating Expenditure 507.1 465.2 441.7 9.0 14.8 EBITDA 241.7 186.0 274.3 30.0 -11.9 EBITDA (%) 32.3 28.6 38.3 372 bps -603 bps YoY improvement mainly due to better gross margins Interest 2.6 1.6 1.5 62.4 66.7 Depreciation 29.1 23.6 28.3 23.5 2.9 Other income 5.5 14.6 4.9 -62.6 13.0 PBT before EO 215.5 175.4 249.2 22.8 -13.5 Less: Exceptional Items 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 215.5 175.1 249.2 23.1 -13.5 Tax 38.8 67.6 79.0 -42.5 -50.8 MI & Share of loss/ (gain) asso. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adj. Net Profit 176.6 107.9 170.2 63.7 3.8 Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA mainly due to lower tax rate Key Metrics India 220.0 195.0 202.0 12.8 8.9 YoY growth on the back of revival in almost all key segments Total Export 524.0 448.0 500.0 17.0 4.8 YoY increase amid Covid related stocking and higher branded push Emerging Branded Markets 286.0 240.0 295.0 19.2 -3.1 mainly in Asian markets Sharp increase amid execution of additional orders during the 77.0 49.0 51.0 57.1 51.0 Africa - Tender quarter US 161.0 159.0 154.0 1.3 4.5 Muted YoY growth amid high base of Ranitidine Source: ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in Estimates FY21E FY22E Comments (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Revenue 2,783.8 2,863.9 2.9 3,190.3 3,261.8 2.2 EBITDA 890.8 948.9 6.5 973.0 1,011.2 3.9 EBITDA Margin (%) 32.0 33.1 113 bps 30.5 31.0 50 bps Changed mainly due to better-than-expected margins in Q3 Changed in line with operational performance and lower tax rate PAT 554.1 621.5 12.2 651.9 682.6 4.7 in Q3 EPS (|) 62.7 70.3 12.2 73.8 77.3 4.7 Source: ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Change in Estimates Current Earlier Comments (| crore) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E Changed mainly due to faster than expected revival in key Domestic 690.0 769.0 790.3 929.9 748.8 907.0 segments Africa 502.0 594.0 644.8 687.5 616.0 668.1 Asia 528.0 674.0 746.0 824.9 734.3 825.5 US 283.0 515.0 624.8 744.9 621.2 717.5 Source: ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Ajanta Pharmaceuticals ICICI Direct Research Conference call highlights Domestic Revenue bifurcation: Cardiac- | 91 crore, Ophthalmic- | 49 crore, Derma- | 39 crore, Pain- | 18 crore; Institutional sales - | 23 crore Total 80-90% doctors are back including derma and acute therapies. MR activity is in full swing Guidance for FY21 – flat to 1% and FY22 – better 13-14%. IPM + 200-300 bps going ahead Africa tender business Strong growth in Q3FY21 amid on to two months of incremental orders Guidance for FY21 - flat (| 240-250 crore). for FY22- | 200 crore one molecule- two tablet dispersible tablets US growth was muted due to Ranitidine in base. Entire lot was recalled in Q4 due to NDMA issues FY21 - three filings FY22: 10-12 filings. Total 10-12 launches planned Current price erosion- 5-7% Last USFDA inspection was in July 2019. Hence, we are expecting the same by July 2021 Sufficient capacity at Dahej Major products approvals in next one year – Fortamet and one more product Guidance for FY21- 20% and FY22- 20% CAGR for the next three to four years Emerging markets Revenue bifurcation: Asia- | 196 crore Africa- | 86 crore, LatAm - | 2 crore Asia-Philippines and Iraq opened up like India. MRs are back in most of the EM markets. Covid related stocking plus higher branded push lead to strong growth in Emerging markets Expecting Q4 to dip Guidance FY21- 12-13%. For FY22 - Africa (8-9%), Asia (12-13%) going ahead P&L items Strong gross margins in FY21 some benefit due to product mix and better realisations going ahead should be ~76% Other expenditure slightly higher than earlier guidance- activity based expenses. Guwahati Ophthalmic block opex also there. Higher depreciation- due to Guwahati Ophthalmic block of one month. Quarterly run rate to go up due to full impact Guidance for FY21 and FY22 EBITDA margins FY22- 31-32% R&D- 5% of sales (~| 170 crore with a delta of +/- 8-9%) Tax rate – FY21: 27%, FY23: 24%.
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