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Systematix Institutional Equities Systematix Institutional Equities Ajanta Pharma 19 July 2021 Diversified branded generics play; US region to add to operating leverage INITIATING COVERAGE Ajanta Pharma (AJP)’s business model offers a distinct mix of consistency and fast Sector: Rating: BUY growth with strong operating metrics (debt-free balance sheet, RoE >20%). The Pharmaceuticals company derives 68% of its revenues from the branded generic markets of India, CMP: Rs 2,145 Target Price: Rs 2,481 Africa and Asia, which lend long term earnings visibility, while its US business is scaling up fast, driving operating leverage benefits. The culmination of a large Stock Info capex (Rs 13bn over FY17-21) should further aid growth and drive a 21% EPS CAGR Sensex/Nifty 53,140/15,923 over FY20-23E. Given its strong earnings visibility, best-in-class operating and Bloomberg AJP IN returns metrics, AJP deserves to trade at a premium to its long term average and in Equity shares 87mn 52-wk High/Low Rs 2,195/1,330 line with the Nifty Pharmaceutical Index. We initiate coverage on the stock with a Face value Rs 2 BUY rating and a target price of Rs 2,481 based on 26x (PE) FY23E EPS. M-Cap Rs 187bn/ USD 2.5bn Interesting brand play: AJP derives 68% of its revenues from the branded generics 3-m Avg value USD 3.5mn markets of India, Africa and Asia. This provides consistency and visibility of strong Financial Snapshot (Rs mn) profitability and returns. Its strategy of focusing on niche/first-to-market products in Y/E March FY21 FY22E FY23E India and customized portfolios in emerging markets should lead to continued strong Sales 28,897 31,870 35,549 outperformance. We expect its branded business to grow at a CAGR of 12% over the Gross profit 22,446 24,221 27,195 next two years, higher than the industry growth of 8-10% in these markets. Gross Margin % 77.7 76.0 76.5 US – Rising scale to improve operating leverage: Unlike peers, AJP started with a EBITDA 9,986 9,720 11,376 Margin % 34.6 30.5 32.0 front-end set up in its initial days in the US. The business has grown at an impressive PAT 6,539 6,693 8,227 CAGR of 36% over FY17-21 led by market share gains and new launches. We expect EPS 76 77 95 the momentum to continue with 9-10 launches per year and market share gains in DPS(Rs) 16 19 23 mature products. The company aims to file for 10-12 abbreviated new drug ROE(%) 23 21 22 applications (ANDAs) per year and has 15 ANDAs pending approval with the USFDA. P/E(x) 29 28 23 The business achieved break-even in FY19 and has started contributing to EV/EBITDA(x) 19 19 16 profitability; with increasing scale, we expect operating leverage benefits to support margin growth. We are building in a CAGR of 14% for the US business over FY21-23E. Shareholding pattern (%) Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Capex cycle ending; balance sheet remains strong: Despite an aggressive capex cycle Promoter 70.3 70.3 70.3 (Rs 13bn over FY17-21), the company maintained a low-debt profile and consistently –Pledged 15.1 15.4 14.9 generated free cash. Its RoCE has declined to 30% from 41%+ in FY17 due to FII 7.9 8.3 8.9 investments in relatively lower RoCE geographies like the US and other business DII 13.3 12.6 12.2 headwinds (slow growth in India, institutional businesses, currency headwinds in Others 9.2 8.6 8.4 emerging markets). With most of the capex complete, we expect FCF generation of Rs 10.3bn over FY21-23E (vs. Rs 9.8bn in FY17-21) and RoE to expand by 300bps to Stock Performance (1-year) 22% in FY23E vs. 19% in FY20. 2,400 2,200 Initiate with BUY: AJP is likely to continue its growth momentum in the branded 2,000 1,800 markets while its US growth trajectory should improve led by new launches. The 1,600 stock currently trades near its 5-year average of 23x (PE) FY23E EPS of Rs 95. Given 1,400 1,200 its large brand franchise, best-in-class margins, strong balance sheet and improving 1,000 FCF and returns profile, it deserves to trade at a premium to its historical average. Jul-21 Jul-20 We initiate coverage on the stock with a BUY rating and target price of Rs 2,481 (16% Jan-21 Jun-21 Oct-20 Apr-21 Sep-20 Feb-21 Dec-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 May-21 AJP Sensex upside from the CMP) based on 26x FY23E EPS, in line with the Nifty Pharmaceutical Index. Praful Bohra [email protected] +91 22 6704 8064 Tausif Shaikh, CFA [email protected] +91 22 6704 8046 Investors are advised to refer disclosures made at the end of the research report. Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 1 19 July 2021 Ajanta Pharma Contents Story in charts ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................. 4 Company Background ......................................................................................................................................................... 5 Milestones .......................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Investment Analysis ......................................................................................................................................................... 10 India business – Outperforming consistently ..................................................................................................................... 10 Focus on first-to-market products a key growth driver ....................................................................................................... 11 Niche launches support premium pricing ........................................................................................................................... 13 Portfolio skewed towards chronic therapies ...................................................................................................................... 13 Top-10 brands skewed towards chronic therapies .............................................................................................................. 14 MR productivity improving gradually ................................................................................................................................. 15 Cardiac: Strong despite the entry of established players .................................................................................................... 16 Ophthal: Maintaining its leadership with new launches ..................................................................................................... 17 Derma: Back on track after the subsiding of concerns on Melacare .................................................................................... 18 Pain – Focused on a few brands ......................................................................................................................................... 19 US market: Ready to reap the benefits of economies of scale ............................................................................................. 20 Branded exports (Asia and Africa): Outperformance to continue led by its customized product basket ............................... 24 Institutional business: Low growth market but RoCE accretive ........................................................................................... 26 Global Fund has reduced its allocation towards anti-malaria .............................................................................................. 27 Diversion of funds towards low volume specialized drugs .................................................................................................. 29 Financial Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................. 30 SWOT Analysis .................................................................................................................................................................. 35 Valuation and recommendation ....................................................................................................................................... 36 Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 2 19 July 2021 Ajanta Pharma Story in charts Exhibit 1: Business mix (%) FY21 Exhibit 2: Expect revenue CAGR of 11% over the next two years 40,000 26% 30% 22% 35,000 25% 30% 30,000 20% Domestic Formulation 25,000 12% 15% 10% 12% Africa (Branded+Insti 20,000 6% 10% Malaria) 15,000 5% Asia 0% -4% 10,000 0% US 5,000 -5% 21,309 20,554 25,879 28,897 31,870 35,549 24% 20,016 - -10% FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E 24% Revenue (Rs mn) Growth yoy (RHS) Source: Company, Systematix Institutional Research Source: Company, Systematix Institutional Research Exhibit 3: EBITDA margin amongst the best in the industry Exhibit 4: Earnings growth to normalize after an aberrational FY21 12,000 40% 100 50% 34% 35% 40% 32% 35% 90 40% 10,000 31% 28% 31% 80 26% 30% 23% 23% 30% 8,000 70 25% 60 20% 2% 6,000 20% 50 10% 0% 15% 40 0% 4,000 -8% 30 10% -17% -10% 2,000 20 5% 10 -20% 58 53 44 54 76 77 95 11,376 9,720 9,720 6,869 6,584 5,664 6,833 9,986 0 0% - -30% FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E EBITDA (Rs mn) EBITDA
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