Eindhoven University of Technology
MASTER
Technology assessment of Ataturk dam and HEPP in Turkey
Bal, R.
Award date: 1994
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• Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT OF ATATURK DAM AND HEPP in Turkey
Rasit BAL ind.nr:325467 November, 1993 TU-Eindhoven Coord.:Dr. Lex Lemmens Preface
The following study has been applied as a part of the Master of Science course 'Technological Development Sciences" at the Technica! University of Eindhoven, The Netherlands. This study is meant to get the "Master of Science" degree.
I would like to thank Dr. L. Lemmens for his advice. Furthermore I would like to thank to the staff of the GAP Administration in Ankara and in Sanliurfa, especially to : M. Yildirir, M. Acikgoz, E. Alemdaroglu, C. Cevheri, Okan, R. Ozer, 0. Santay and ethers in Sanliurfa. Talks and discussions with them were very informative. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1. Introduetion 1
Chapter 2 Turkey ...... 4 2.1 History ...... 4 2.2 Economie development ...... 5
Chapter 3 Southeastern Anatolia Region ...... 8 3.1 Introduetion ...... 8 3.2 Geographical location and Climate ...... 9 3.3 Natural Resources ...... 11
3.4 Sanliurfa Province ...... 15 3.4.1 Society Description ...... 15 3.4.1.1 Kinship ...... 15 3.4.1.2 Religion ...... 16 3.4. 1.3 Politics ...... 18 3.4.1.4 Education ...... 19 3.4.1.5 Economics ...... 19
Chapter 4. Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) ...... 24 4. 1 Introduetion ...... 24 4.2 The Project ...... 25 4.2. 1 History ...... 25 4.2.2 The Project and the Region's development ...... 26 4.2.3 GAP Master Plan ...... 27 4.2.3. 1 Objectives and strategies of the Project ...... 28 4.3 The original GAP Projects ...... 32 4.4 Lower Firat project ...... 34 4.4.1 Ataturk Dam and HEPP ...... 35 4.4.1.1 Hydroelectric Power Plant ...... 36 4.4.1.2 lrrigation Schemes ...... 36 4.4.1.2.1 Sanliurfa Tunnels ...... 36 4.4.1.2.2 On-farm lrrigation Projects ...... 37 4.5 Definition and Beunding ...... 39
Chapter 5 Technology Assessment ...... 40 5.1 Introduetion ...... 40 5.2 Technology and Society ...... 40 5.3 Definition and Components of TA ...... 41 5.3. 1 Problem definition and Beunding ...... 42 5.3.2 Technology Description and Foracasting ...... 42 5.3.3 Social Description and terecasting ...... 43 5.3.4. Impact Assessment ...... 43 5.3.4. 1 Economie Impacts ...... 44 5.3.4.2 Social Impacts ...... 45 5.3.4.3 Environmental Impacts ...... 45 5.3.4.4 Politica! Impacts ...... 46 5.3.4.5 Technological Impacts ...... 46 5.4 Methad used in this study ...... 47 5.4.1 Evaluation Method: Multicriteria evaluation ...... 47
Chapter 6 Analysis of the project aims formulated in the Master Plan ...... 49 6.1 Introduetion ...... 49 6.2 General approach ...... 50 6.2.1 Development Problems ...... 50 6.2.2 Development Objectives ...... 52 6.2.3 Development Strategy ...... 52 6.3 Specified analysis ...... 53 6.3.1 Economie aims ...... 53 6.3.2 Social aims ...... 58 6.3.3 Politica! aims ...... 61 6.4 Genelusion ...... 63
Chapter 7 Analysis of the Impacts ...... 65 7.1 Introduetion ...... 65 7.2 Impact ldentification ...... 65 7.2.1 lmplementation period ...... 66 7.2.2 After construction ...... 66 7.2.2.1 Lake ...... 66 7.2.2.2 Water to lrrigate ...... 67 7 .2.2.3 Electric Energy ...... 69 7.3 Impact Analysis ...... 70 7 .3.1 Ou ring the implementation ...... 70 7.3.2 After construction ...... 75 7 .3.2. 1 Lake ...... 76 7.3.2.2 Water to lrrigate ...... 79 7.3.2.3 Electric Energy ...... 98
Chapter 8 Impact Evaluation ...... 100 8.1 Introduetion ...... 100 8.2 Evaluation Methad ...... 100 8.3 Impact presentation ...... 101 8.3.1 Presentation ...... 102 8.3.1. 1 The aimed impacts ...... 102 8.3.1.2 Impacts during implementation ...... 102 8.3.1.3 Impact after construction ...... 103 8.4 Evaluation ...... 106 8.4.1 Project aims ...... 106 8.4.2 lmplementation period ...... 106 8.4.3 After the implementation ...... 107
Chapter 9. Conclusions and Ramarks ...... 11 0
Raferences ...... 112 Chapter 1. Introduetion
Since the establishment of the Turkish Republic, the main objective of each subsequent government was to develop Turkey toa modern country. During its development the country was divided into two economical parts. The western part of Turkey which is relatively well developed, and the eastern part which is legged behind and remained more or less traditional. Southeast Anatolia is a region which is situated in the eastern part of the county.
During the sixties, a start has been made to develop the eastern part of the country. The Southeast Anatolia has many potantials to be exploited. Two biggest rivers (Firat and Dicle) of the country pass the region and stream into the neighbour countries. Beside this two big rivers, the region also have many potantials of arabie land. Thousands of year it was nat possible tobring this potential tagether in order to mobilize them for the region's people. During this long time, the agriculture of the region was traditional:dryfarming which is toa dependent on the climatologic conditions. lt has low yield, no erop rotations, erop per 2 years (fellow). These are the main characters of the agriculture of the region. On the ether hand the region is also nat industrialized. The region has no industry at all.
To develop the region a project has been developed. The project has been called the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP). This project has been developed by DSI (Directorate of State Hydraulic Works). lt is a combination of 13 major projects primarily concerning irrigation and hydrapower generation. The project envisages the construction of 22 dams and 17 hydrapower plants on the Firat and the Dicle rivers and their tributaries. This project will provide enough water to irrigate 1.6 million hectare arabie land. Most favourite project of the GAP is the Lower Flrat Project. This project consist of many individual projects to irrigate an area of 7 hundred thousand hectare. These are: the Ataturk DAM and HEPP (Hydroelectric Power Plant), the Sanliurfa Tunnels that have a lengthof 26.4 kilometre, and many on-farm irrigation schemes to carry water trom the dam to the arabie land. At present Ataturk dam and HEPP are almast completed. In 1994, when the Sanliurfa Tunnels and on-farm irrigations schemes are completed, the irrigation will start in Sanliurfa-Harran Plains. On the ether hand, Ataturk HEPP have already been started with the production of the electric energy. Four generators of eight are already installed and operational.
Such a giant project will be constructed in a more or less traditional society. The construction of this new project means that a new technology is going to be introduced in this society. lt is evident to foresee that the new technology will effect the socio-economie situation of the region. From the experience in past, a certain technology introduced in a context will cause many changes. Same of these changes are foreseen and intended, and some of these are nat indented andjor undesired. To identify these effects, a evaluation methad has been developed, mainly in the USA This evaluation methad is called Technology Assessment (TA). This methad has developed several techniques to identify, to analyze, and to
1 evaluate the impacts of a certain technology in a given socio-economie situation. This technique aims to identify the unexpected and undesired effects of the technology going to be introduced in order to minimize the negative effects of the technology.
When this study was planned, the expectation was that in would be possible to have access to the most of technological data that could be used for the technological analysis. Unfortunately the required data were nat available. Therefore the technological part of the study is much less then expected. Furthermore it was expected that because of the time passed since the start of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) an important number of impacts could be measured, resulting in a quantitative analysis. Because of major delay in the implementation of the projects, and the lack of proper data also this part of the study has to be skipped. The expected impacts to be measured should occur in the future. Therefore this study become a T A-study which forecasts, and analyze the possible impacts, of the technologies introduced into the Region. Thus an exante evaluation study.
This technique will be used to identify, to analyze, and to evaluate the GAP in general, and Ataturk DAM and HEPP in particular. The project objectives have been formulated in the Master Plan. These objectives will be used to identify the aimed impacts. Using the TA, I will also identify and analyze the possible impacts based on mine own study and experiences within the region. Bath, aimed impacts and impacts identified by myself will be used to evaluate the impacts, thus the project. The socio-economie situation befare the introduetion of the new technology will be used to evaluate the possible impacts. The last point is a subjective process which may lead to discussions. Such a discussions are necessary in order to achieve the best results for the sake of the people, I think.
The organization of the this report is as follows: in chapter 2 a brief description have been given of the Turkey's history and present socio-economie situation. In chapter 3 the GAP region (Southeastern Anatolia) have been described. In this chapter the natural resources and present socio-economie situation have been presented, and the present socio-economie situation of the province Sanliurfa has been highlighted, since the irrigation starts in this province.The socio-economie situation of the Region will be used as basis for the analysis. Bath chapters (2 and 3) are required to understand the development of the project (GAP) and its objectives.
In chapter 4, the GAP project in general, and Ataturk DAM and HEPP in particular are described. The irrigation projects that will carry water farm the Ataturk dam to the arabie land in Sanliurfa-Harran plains, are highlighted. The objectives, as formulated in the Master Plan, have been presented.
In chapter 5, the methad (TA) which is going to be used to analyze and to evaluated the Project, has been described. In chapter 6 the objectives of the project have been analyzed, and this chapter has been completed with mine conclusions w.r.t. the objectives and Master Plan. The analysis of the objectives
2 have been done according to "aims-tools-impact" cycles. This chapters (6) are required to compare the aimed impacts with the impacts identified in the following chapter (7). Chapter 7 includes the methodological identification and analysis of both intended, and not-intended impacts leading to an exante evaluation of the project. Therefore firstly, the impact area's and impacters have been determined. In the light of the method set out in chapter 5, the identified impacts have been analyzed. The results of the chapter 6 (aimed) and chapter 7 (identified) are used to evaluate the project. This is done in chapter 8. Doing this, the socio-economie situation of the country and the GAP region are served as basis.
Finally, this report ends with the final conclusions, chapter 9.
3 Chapter 2 Turkey
2.1 History
At the end of the worldwar I the Ottoman Empire were also to his end. According the Sèvres declaration, made between the parties of the war, the Empire's territory was increased tilt, almost, the present Turkey. Very soon after this deelaratien some of the Europaan countries declared the Empire war and they occupied different regions of the Empire. After this occupation, the liberation of the country has been started. First the different liberation movements in Anatolia had started with the independent war. They were nationally net organized. In 1919 Mustata Kemal who was send to the Anatolia by the Sultan was, after the deferent meetings in several centres, elected to manage the liberation war. The liberation war went on tilt september 1922. After the Lausanne deelaratien Qune 1923) the dependenee of the Turkey was recognized.
Very soon after the independence, the sultan was abolished and in october 1923 the Republic was declared. Mustata Kemal became the first president, he was chosen by the parliament members. This was also the begin of many social, economie, legal and cultural changes. Firstly he cleared up the main constraints, like khalif and sheria, against the changes. After this, he started with his revolutions like pet and letter revolutions. The education and legal system was changed totally. Old education institutions were forbidden, a new legal system, which was a translated combination of several legalsystems of the western countries, was excepted for the republic. There were also reactions against the new way of life. The central government was streng enough to stop this reactions and punish the responsible persons.
The most important aim of this changes were to create a society which was modern in every respect. For new the republic, it was very important to become a part of the west. Such a goal was net new. The modernization in Turkey was descendant trom 18th century. The revolutions of Mustata Kemal Ataturk can be seen as a continuing of this polities. The modernization of Ataturk was firstly to secularize the state (polities, economy and legislation) than the social live (education) and finely the culture. The religion should stay out of the politica! and social live.
One of the most important character of the new republic was its nationalistic politic in a multi-nations society. In this case an attempt has been made to repface the religion. To realize this, many research has been made to the history of the Turks befere they became muslims. After the death (1938) of Ataturk, his heritage was the guide of the new republic. The modernization goal has net been reached yet.
Till 1950 the republic was governed by ene politica! party. lts politics were basedon the Kemalism, ideals of Ataturk. In 1950 the republic was ready tor a multi party
4 system. After the elections the CHP (Republic Party) lostand DP (Democratie Party) won most of the chairs in the parliament. This party governed the country till 1960. In this period many economie developments has been achieved. Beside this, there has also been some changes w.r.t the religion. The "call to pray" might be called in its original language, Arabic. In 1960 the army committed a coup de'tat. The reasen was the missuse of the constitutional power by the government. The army took the politics in his hand to proteet the democracy and Ataturk's revolutions.
After this coup de'tat, the general elections have been made and the civil politic parties was allowed to govern Turkey. After this the government of Demirel continued the economie and politica! development of the republic. In this years many investments has been made to imprave the infrastructure. In 1971 again a coup de'tat has been committed. After the elections the politica! system has been antered into a coalition party period. Till 1980 the republic had many economie and social problems. The peace movement to the Cyprus had many economie conse quences for Turkey. The tights between the right and left groups in this period were one of the big social problems. Again in 1980 the army committed a coup de'tat to proteet the Turkish democracy and Kemalism.
After the free elections under leadership of Ozal (ANAP, his politica! party) Turkey antered a time of politica! and economical development. The infrastructure has been improved, the economy became more open for the foreign investments and socially the country became more stable. The most important and difficult problem of Turkey is the struggle of PKK, a Kurdish organization, with the Turkish army and citizens. This struggle mostly done in Southeastern Anatolia, destabilizes not only the region but alsoother regionsof Turkey.
2.2 Economie development
In the 19th century and begin of 20th century the Ottoman Empire was not be able to industrialize the county. Their was always a fight between the Empire and its enemies. The heritage of the empire was a agricultural and not developed economy. In 1923 the share of the agriculture in the GNP was 43 percent and of the industry it was 13 percent. Because of the centralistic government the share of the services was 44 percent. More than 70 percent of the popuiatien earn their live in the agriculture.
According the government there was a streng relationship between the modernization and industrialization. This was the reasen why the industrial sector got the most attention. Very soon after the establishment the government made many investments to build the infrastructure. Different Banks for different purposes was established. De education has been improved and in thirties many factories has been build (steel, sugar, textile). The Ataturk's period is a period in which the Turkish economy grew rapidly: average 7.4 percent of GNP, 9.6 percent growth in industry. In this period there was no inflation.
5 During the world war 11 the Turkish economy stagnated. The investment has been stoppad the growth of the GNP was negative. The intlation was high (109 percent per year is the average intlation in 1938-1949 period). This economical situation resulted in the end of the one party period. The vaters choose the Dernocrat Party to govern Turkey. This party won 408 chairs of the total 477 chairs.
During the Dernocrat Party period the economy started to grow again. The GNP per capita grew 3.9 percent average. The intlation increased to 6.5 percent. The economy became more open, the import restrictions are made more flexible. Between 1950 and 1953 many capital goeds were imported. In spite of this developments, the country remain its agricultural character, share of the main sectors in the GNP: agriculture 38 percent, industry 22 percent and services 40 percent (1959). From these, one can conclude that de economie development of Turkey is very slow. This is probable caused by the social and cultural changes that gat the most attention of the government, particular during the one party period.
After 1963 the Turkish economy entered into a planned period (1963-1993). Under leadership of Timbergen, the State Planning Organization prepared a five year development plan. When the first five year development plan was launched, the economie development policy of Turkey had centred around state enterprise initiat ive and import substituting industrialization. The policy was effective in attaining a stabie growth during the following plan periods. lf one campare this two period, one can conclude that the economie development of the first period was better, the war period (1940-1945) excluded.
De development of the Turkish economy continued during the next years. The stabie and relativa high economie growth was frustrated by a series of sharp increases in petroleum prices in 1970's, stagnated agricultural produce due the general sluggish of the world economy. An ether important factor in 1970's was the Cyprus action of the Turkish army. This resulted in a economie isolation of the Turkish economy. Due this kind of factors the economy stagnated (negative growth, high inflation) at the end of 1970's.
In order to evereome these difficulties, the Economie Stabilization Program were issued in 1980 by the government. The aims of the Programs were first to stabilize the economy in the short run tor suppressing the intlation and improving the balance of payments and to reform the economie structure in long run. The Program had little effect. In the beginning the intlation has been decreased but than, it is increased to more than 60 percent per year. The impravement of the balance of payment has not been occurred. However the Program resulted in a sustained (more stable) growth till 1987 and the economy has entered a new era of development in long term.
Now in the 1993 the Turkey is a half-developad country. The GNP per capita is more than 2500 US$. The share of the main sectors in GNP in 1992: agriculture is 16 percent, industry 25.7 percent and services 58.3 percent (1991) at current prices. More than 80 percent (1992) of the export is industrial products, almast 60
6 percent of the import is also industrial product. From 1950 the imparts were more than exports. In 1992 64 percent of the import can be compensated with the export. The foreign debt is 56 billion US$.
The economie development of the Turkey was not homogeneaus in sectoral, social and geographical respect. The industry has always got the most attention. Through this the agricultural potential has been neglected. During the development a economical and politica! powertul elite class has been arosen. The country was divided into two economical parts. The western part (Ankara, lstanbul, lzmir, Adana and their surroundings) which was relatively well developed and the eastern part (Southeastern, Eastern and Middle Anatolia regions) which was lagged and remained more or less traditionally.
7 Chapter 3 Southeastern Anatolia Region
3.1 Introduetion
Five thousand years ago, and more, the plains between the Firat and Dicle rivers were probably ranked among the more advanced agricultural areas of the world. The combination of a relatively mild elimate featuring a reliable winter rainy season, and a hospitabie terrain with extensive areas of level, fertile plains attracted innovative people. Some of the mankind's earliest experiments with purposetul technology and many of major cultivated crops probably were derived trom the agricultural experience of the region.
Since than many different cultures have been in the region. Since the stagnation of the agriculture 4000 years ago no attempt has been made to change the agricultural production. Up to now agricultural development has been restricted to seasonal crops to satisfy the demands of the local subsistenee economy. In short, there has been no incentive to modernize agricultural practices and no scope to diversify into production of summer cash crops.
After the establishment of the Turkish Republic, the plains between the two rivers are divided into two parts. Lower mesopotamia belongs to the lraq and Syria and upper mesopotamia belongs to the Turkish republic. The upper mesopotamia, defined in the study as the Region or the GAP region, is one of the less developed region of Turkey. lts per capita gross regional product is 47 percent of the per capita gross dornestic product of Turkey. However, the Region is still considered as self-sufficient in basic foodstuff. Table 3.1 below gives more detailed data about the socio-economie situation of the Region. lt also gives the socio-economie position of the Region within Turkey.
Index Unit Turkey Region Region's share(%)
Land Area Km-2 779.452 73.863 9.5
Population 10-6 56.47 5.15 9.1 Popul. density perjkm-2 72 56 Popul. Growth % 2.19 3.48 Urban Popul. % 59 56
Agriculture share % 17.7 39.6 9.0 Manufacturing % 25.2 11.7 1.9 GRP jperson (1985) US$ 1517 717 47
Table 3.1 General socio-economie position of the Southeastern Anatolia, in 1993 prices source: DIE 1991, GAP administration, April 1993
8 Considering the potential land and water recourse of the Region it is astonishing that the Region is nat developed. More than 90 percent of the total area can be used for agriculture. Of the total area 43 percent can be cultivated. The Turkey biggest two rivers stream within the Region. The elimate is very suitable tor more crops per year. In spite of this the Region is less developed. The Turkish govern ment and local population hope that with the implementation of the South Anatolia Project (GAP) the socio-economie situation of the Region changes by which the Region becomes stabie and prosperous.
In this chapter the most attention will be given to the agriculture. First the agricultural situation will be treated. Concerning the agricultural purposes of the Project, in bath sides (input and output), and limited time other sectors will relatively get less attention. Than the situation in the province Sanliurfa wil! be highlighted because the Lower Firat Project wil! mostly effect this province. The data given in this chapters will be used to analyze the aims of the Project and to forecast the impacts of the Project.
3.2 Geographical location and Climate
Turkey is administratively divided into seven districts. This was done in 1941. Southeastern Anatolia is one of those districts which covers 9.5 percent of the Turkey's total area. The location of it is to see below.
1U..LATYA o
SYRIA
Map 1. Southeastern Anatolia region
9 In this study the Southeastern Anatolia region and the GAP region refers to the same region. The GAP region is further divided into eight provinces: Adiyaman, Diyarbakir, Gaziantep, Mardin, Siirt, Sanliurfa, Batman and Sirnak. Their locations can be seen above, map 1: Sanliurfa is the biggest and Sirnak is the smallest province.
The GAP region accupies the Southeastern part of Turkey berdering on Syria to the south and lraq to the southeast, covering the area of 73863 square of kilometre. The area is nat uniform. Going trom the south to the north the elevation increases. Is spite of the elevation the GAP region is mainly composed of plains encircled by mountains terrains on the east, north and west.
As distanced trom the Mediterranean elimate influence a terrestrial elimate dominates the GAP region. lts character is high temperature and low rainfall. The highest rainfall records are measured at mountains sides of the Tauros Mountains located at the narth-west of the region. Decreasing rainfall towards the south is mainly due to the latitude, terrestrial elimate and topographic conditions. The rainfall per season can beseen below.
winter spring autumn summer
Rainfall (%) 48 33 17 2 Dampness (%) 55 20
Table 3.2, the rainfall and dampness in the region
While the amount rainfall reaches 1200-1300 mm at the mountains stations of the north-west, it is approximately 300 mm at the southern border stations. Average annual rainfall for the central cities such as Adiyaman and Sanliurfa is 835.4 mm and 473.1 mm respectively. The ditterences between the annual averages and summer averages are an indication of the extreme drought.
High ditterences between average temperature of the coldest and the warmest months is the characteristics of the terrestrial climate. Minimum and maximum temperatures in the provincial eentres of the region are, see below
Mim. temp. Max. Temp (Celsius) (Celsius)
Gaziantep -17.5 Qanuary) 42.8 (August) Diyarbakir -24.1 Qanuary) 46.2 Quly) Sanliurfa -12.4 (february) 46.5 Quly) Adyaman - 9.4 Qanuary) 46.2 Quly) Siirt -19.3 Qanuary ) 42.7 Quly) Mardin -13.9 (february) 42.0 (august)
Table 3.3, Temperature during the year in the Region source: DIE, 1991
10 3.3 Natural Resources
A. Firat river
The Firat (Euphrates) and the Dicle (Tigris) are the major river systems running through the GAP reg ion. The Firat has a catchment of 102876 square of kilometres above the Syrian border. Of the total catchment in Turkey 22100 square of kilo metres (22 percent) is situated with in the region. This river systems are also the biggast rivers of Turkey.
The Firat river rises in the mountains of the southeastern Erzurum and drains the mountainous area of the upper part of the catchment area following to the southwest and joins the Murat river, the largast tributary of the Firat river. The Keban Dam and HEP, which is completed in 1974, starts where Murat river the Firat meets. Below Keban, the river generally flows southward forming a S-shaped river course down to the Ataturk damsite. Between Keban and Ataturk Dam the Karakaya Hydroelectric Power plant is constructed and since 1988 under operation. The Firat river flows southward in an open valley downstraam the Ataturk dam. The river streams 128 kilometra down to the south and it leaves Turkey.
The mean annual runaft of the river at Bekiskoy (Birecik) near the Syrian border is estimated to be 30377. 10-6m-3 as the average of 1937-1980 period. During the ·mentioned period the river suffered trom two serieus drought periods. The first critica! period occurred trom 1958 to 1962 and the driest year was 1961. The annual runaft in 1961 was only 49 percent of the mean annual value. The secend critica! period was trom 1970 to 1975 and 1975 was the driest year. In this year the annual runaft was 62 percent of the mean value. On the other hand the wettest year was 1969 and the annual runaft was 53548.10-6 m-3 or 186 percent of the mean annual value.
The seasonal variatien of the rivers runaft is also remarkable. The highest runaft in a year is observed in April while the lewest occurs in september. The monthly runaft in ranges trom 275 percent to 33 percent to the annual mean.
B. Dicle River
The Dicle river rises in the Karaoglan mountains which divides the Dicle river basin trom the Murat river basin. The catchment area of the river within Turkey is 38295 square of kilometre. lts total length is 1900 kilometre, 523 kilometra of it is within the Turkey's border.
The river flows down southward to Diyarbakir and turns east and then it flows eastward gatharing the major tributaries of the Batman, Garzan and Botan rivers trom the left bank. At Razuk, just downstraam of the confluence of the Botan river, if turns to the southeast and flows down to Cizre. Below Cizre it runs along the border of Syria and finally eernes into lraq and it streams into the Golf, tagether with the Firàt river, see map 2.
11 The mean annual runoff at Cizre is estimated to be 16800. 10-6 m-3 as the average of 1946-1983 period. The annual variation of the river was similar to that of the Firat. This river also suffered frow two serious drought periods. The first period occurred trom 1958 to 1962 and the driest year was 1961. The annual runoff in this year was 4 7 percent of the mean annual value for the 38 years. The secend critica! period was trom 1970 to 1975. The driest year in this period was 1973. The runoff in this year was decreased to 58 percent of the mean annual value. The wettest year was 1969. The annual runoff in that year was 204 percent of the mean annual value.
C. Grondwater
The Southeastern Anatolia region has big potantials for groundwater which can be used for several purposes, like for irrigation and as drinkwater. Most of this groundwater is situated in lower plains of Sanliurfa, Mardin and Diyarbakir provinces. Going to the south the groundwater depth increases.
At present these groundwater reserves scattered in the region serve tor municipal water supply and smali-scale irrigation purpose. Almest 35000 hectare land in Harran and Ceylanpinar plains are irrigating by pumping and distributing the groundwater. The total groundwater reserves that can be used of the region is 1520 million m-3/year. Sanliurfa has the most reservies within the region: 1202 million m-3/year
D. Land
The GAP region has a large land potential which can be used for saveral purposes. The total area of it is 7,5 million hectares; of this area 42,3 percent (3.1 million ha) is used for agricultural purposes. The land which is used for farming (dry and irrigated) is 2,8 million hectares and 250 thousand hectares are used for orchards. 2,4 million hectares are meadows and pastures and 1,5 million hectares are forest, bushes and shrubs. The remaining area (4,2 percent) are for settlements, marshes, river beds, rocks and water surfaces. lf the inclination of the land is lower than 12 percent than the land is useable for the farming. According this exceptional almest 72 percent of the region's area is useable for the farm ing. Th is ratio is 93,7 percent for Sanliurfa, the highest, 33 percent for Adiyaman, the lewest To make this possible some adjustments have to be occurred; like preventing water and wind (little) erosions and picking up the stanes which ferm a eenstraint for farming.
Approximately 2 million hectare plains in Upper Mesopotamia are the main places tor agricultural purposes. This plains are: Urfa-Harran, Biracik-Suruc-Baziki, Siverek Hilvan, Mardin-Ceylanpinar, Gaziantep, Yavuzeli-Araban, Besni-Keysun and ether plains, see map 2.
12 Tunne\s
San\wrfo- 1-\a.-r-o ... u- Plains
SOUTHEASTERN ANATOLIA PROJECT
Map 2, The plains of the GAP regions
The most fertile agricultural lands are concentrated in Sanliurfa. More detailed data about the land use in the region is given below, see table 3.5
Province Total area (ha) Cultiv. area Dry lrrigated ------Adiyaman 624813 238392 204334 34059 Diyarbakir 1411816 599157 539569 59587 Gaziantep 741821 379798 347863 31935 Mardin 740833 330225 309044 21181 Siirt 358314 71191 62004 9187 Sanliurfa 1588077 767320 706414 60906 Batman 335645 94141 75282 18859 Sirnak 388337 78934 70940 7994
Table 3.4, Land use in the GAP region source: General Agriculture Census, 1991 SIS
As it can beseen trom the table 3.4, the most of the land is used for dry farming. Todetermine whether a piece of land is suitable tor agricultural activities soil classification is used. There are eight classes: I, II, ... VIII which refer to the quality of the soils. The soil classes I through IV are assumed as predominantly suitable for agriculture. Class V and class VI are also suitable but nat as much as the first four classes. Class VIl and class VIII can nat be utilized for agricultural purposes. Of the total region's area 55 percent belengs to the classes I through Vl. Mardin and Sanliurfa are the richest provinces in terms of class I soils: 34 percent and 38.5 percent respectively.
13 E. Popuiatien
The GAP region is covering the land area of 74000 square of kilometre, correspon ding to 9,5 percent of the total national land area. The total popuiatien at the 1990 census was 5,2 miJlion in the region, accounting 9,2 percent on the natien's total population.
Within the GAP region Gaziantep is most the crowded province. lt has 23 percent of the popuiatien of the region. Diyarbakir and Sanliurfa is slightly less crowded than Gaziantep. The most less crowded province is Siirt. More detailed data is given below, table 3.5.
Provinces popuiatien Urban Growth Growth Urban growth 1990 (%) 80-85 85-90 85-90 ------Adiyaman 513131 42.7 3.22 3.50 6.55 Diyarbakir 1094996 54.8 3.75 3.17 4.44 Gaziantep 1140594 72.0 3.63 3.30 4.62 Mardin 557727 44.6 2.91 2.59 4.24 Sanliurfa 1001455 55.0 5.68 4.62 6.05 Siirt 243435 45.0 3.33 1.25 3.84 Batman 344669 56.2 3.77 5.59 Sirnak 262006 47.8 3.90 10.73 ------Region 5158013 55.6 3.5 3.99 5.23 Turkey 56473035 59.0 2.49 2.35 3.38
Table 3.5, The popuiatien of the GAP region and Turkey Source: SIS, 1990 census and GAP Master Plan.
The popuiatien census and dynamics make it clear that urban popuiatien is surpass the rural popuiatien in Turkey. Almest 59 percent of the total popuiatien of Turkey is concentrated in urban. The situation in the GAP region also reflects this trend, being almest the same. The most urbanized province is Gaziantep, 72 percent. The less urbanized provinces are Adiyaman, 42,7 percent and Mardin, 44,6 percent.
As it can be seen trom the table 3.5, the regions's popuiatien growth is above the Turksy's average growth. This is why the region's share in Turkey is getting bigger. This statement is certified by the next figures: in 1965 the region's share in the total popuiatien was 7,54 percent. in 1980 it became 7,96 percent, in 1985 8.49 percent and in 1990 it was 9,2 percent. The reasen of such a growth is the high fertility rates in the region. The migration out of the region or within the region has not an important influence. The fertility rates were 7,43 in the region and 5,26 in Turkey in 1990. The child mortality rates within the region are also on the high side, although they are steadily decreasing since 1970.
14 One of the most clear characteristic of the region's popuiatien is its young age. According the 1990 census 49 percent of the popuiatien was younger than 15 years. The same tigure for Turkey was 36 percent. From this one can conclude that the dependenee in the region is higher. This tigure is biggestin Siirt (51%) and lewest in Gaziantep (45%). The proportion of the active popuiatien (15-64) is 48 percent.
3.4 Sanliurfa Province
Sanliurfa province is boarded with Adiyaman and Diyarbakir in North, Gaziantep in West, and Mardin in East. The province has many plains with different size and geographical situation. They are: Sanliurfa-Harran, Suruc, Viransehir and Hilvan. These plains cover an area of 6250 square of kilometres. Of the total province area 98.2 per cent can be mobilized for the agricultural activities. The mentioned land potential can not be exploited because of low rainfall. On the ether hand, the province has groundwater potentials. Part of these potantials are already mobilized for the irrigation (southern part of the Harran pains, 37 000 ha).
In the following paragraphs the socio-economie situation of the Sanliurfa, particularly of the Sanliurfa-Harran, will be explained. For this purpose, tirstly the society description in term of kinship, religion, education, and politics will be given. Secondly the economie situation will be explained by using the agricultural and industrial sectors. This explanation is required in order to use it for the analysis of the project which will irrigate Sanliurfa-Harran pains.
3.4.1 Society Description
3.4.1.1 Kinship
Kinship has always been a streng link between the people in Sanliurfa. The tribe to which a people belengs has a very important place in his/her life. This triballife is one of the remainders of the so called steppe culture. In this culture the existing social organizations such as tribe, clan and oba in the province (also in the GAP region), is consistent with the ecological conditions. This conditions make such organizations necessary to survive. Befere the establishment of the Turkish republic the province was governed by a tribe which was pointed by the sultan. The tribes were Kurds and they were free in internal matters. Later on the Turkish republic tried to make them ''Turk".
This kind of organization loses its strength to the extent of decreasas in nomadism and increases in settled life. Old traditions dissolves and they are replaced by modern social relations. This de-solvation is a process which can takes many years. Exactly this is happening in the province. The organization of a tribe in the eentres is different than that of in rural areas.
Due to homogeneity of tribal structure, facetoface relations and dominanee of the "we" feeling collectiva attack, collectiva defense mechanism had developed. For
15 example, a man who kills a persen of an other tribe is not accessed individually but all his tribeis accessed. Similarly, all of the tribe rises in defense along with the m_an who has committed the crime. The interest of the tribe is centra!, the individual interest are inferior to that of the tribe.
Every unit in a tribe has a chief (called Aga). However, all such chiefs are under the cammand of the chief of the tribe. lt is their duty to obey the word of the tribe's chief without questioning. The chief of a tribe has economical and politica! responsibilities. In modern Turkey tribal chiefs are also functional in politic on the national level. One can still witness that there are members of parliament, mayors, local politica! party leaders, municipal administrators among tribal chiefs.
The tribes are patrileneally organized. Very seldom it occurs that a woman become the chief of a tribe. This make wamen not superfluous in the economie and social life. They have certain productive functions in nomadie society. She has some manly responsibilities such as selling goods on the market and bargaining. Woman has a positive and probably better status than that of the one we see in setlied life. Th is because of their important economical activities in the family.
Beside the tribe the relations within the family is also very streng. The father of the family has the most power within the family. He is the persen who has to take decisions and ether members of the family have to obey. Heisalso responsible of the family in every respect, economical social and religieus. In the settled family life his power in decision-making processis bigger.
However, as soon as the tribe adopts a settled life, woman's place is defined as home and her work is the housewerk and dornestic duties. Her main identity becomes motherhoed and thus she is pacified. Their participation in the daily life decreases. This is why the islamic communities are mostly called as "men societies".
In the province (also in the GAP region) it is important to have many children. The strength of a family is depended of the quantity of the children. They are also a kind of guarantee tor the life adults. In spite of these their power within the family is not much. They are, married or single, obligated to obey the orders and decision of the father and mother. But when the father is died the cidest son become the leader of the family.
3.4.1.2 Religion
Religion, as a historica! institution, has a significant place in people's life in the province. Particular for the popuiatien in the rural areas religieus costumes and traditions are much more important than the civil codes.
The Islam is introduced in the 8th century and become during the next centuries the dominant religion in the Sanliurfa province. The islamization of the province have take many years. During this process members from ether religion were also expected to become moslims. No important struggle has been recorded between
16 the membars of the different. religion during the centuries.
Nearly every village has a mosque. Majority of the people in rural area is trom a religieus sect of Shafi. Remaining rural minority and the majority of urban popula tion in the province is trom another religieus sect, Hanefi. Both of the mentioned sects are branches of Islam and there is no conflict between them. However the relation between this two Sunni sects and the Alevi's (a shiite sect) is not very well. An example which is a good indicator to show the relation between this two sects is that the marriage between them is very rare.
As mentioned before, Islam has an important place in the daily life. The relation among the people is based on the lslamic rules. The sects (Hanefi, Safi) and subsects (tarikats) work this rules out and make them operational. This means the life of the population, clothes, praying, the social contacts, is determined by Islam. The Islam determines not only the individual life but also the social, economie and politicallife. To make this possible, Islam has been organized in different manners and levels. Such organized and institutionalized religieus units try to maintain the traditional status qua. On the ether hand there are also religieus organization within the province that try to make the province more lslamic. Their aim is to create a modern lslamic society. The official organizations try to realize a modern, secular society. The structural change within the province. predictable.
Many institutions, that tultil the religieus functions, are present in the province. Most important ones will be treated below.
A. Tarikats
During 12th and 13th centuries the first tarikats ( religieus order or literally the "path") have been introduced in the province. Their aim is to practise Islam as it is. Most active and effective tarikat is the tarikat of Nakshibendi. This tarikat has subtarikats. The important ones in the province is "Nurcular", "Suleymancilar". These orders have a leader who is called as "shiakhs" orjand "seyyids". Their influences are important in the life of the members and widely spread. The leader gets his power through Islam. His words are mostly associated with Islam and, by this, the members of a larikat obligate themself to obey their leader.
The exitance of such an institution and the power of its leader can be explained by means of the education possibilities of the ordinary people. In the traditional life not everybody gets the opportunity to learn hisfher religion. Through this kind of leaders, by asking questions, they stay on the "right" way. The leaders does not need a tormal or profound education. Their organization and speech capacities are more important.
Their activities are: erganizing meetings, education of the members, supporting a politica!, not always, parties etc .. They are mostly seen in and round the mosques.
17 B. Medreses
In the Medreses the people get religieus education. They are nat recognized as a education institution by the state. The moslems who do nat trust the official education institutions (secular) send their children to this institutions. The education in this institutions is provided with a traditional method. The pupil learn for example islamic laws, history and philosophy. Their quantity is decreasing and make place for ether kind of religous institutions that are legal. These institutions are Koran Schools, lmam-Hatib schools and theology facultaits at Univarsity level.
C. Other institutions
The foundations (Vakiflar) are the civil organizations that fulfill many functions. Their history is as old as the Islam itself. Their activities are:education, scholarship for children of poor family and student dormitory.
An ether religieus institution within the province is Diyanet organization which is official. This organization represents the official Islam and provides services. lts services are: govern the misch, provide the misch of a Imam and Muezzin (caller). This institution also governs the Koran schools.
3.4.1.3 Politics
The actual and ideal structures of tribal organization and culture have undergone radical transformations due to such recent developments and sedentarization, villagization, urbanization, changes en land ownership and tenure structures, mechanization of the agricultural production, irrigation, development of production for market, integration into administrative, educational, medica! and ether political cultural structures of the modern central state. However, it has to be pointed out the tribal organization and culture still have effectiveness in village and sub-village settlements.
As in ether provinces in Turkey, Sanliurfa has a gavernor who represents the state. Beside the governor, the province popuiatien choose the mayor and Aldermen. The civil servants carry out the politics of the state and the local government. The citizens have to live with the modern civil code set up by the state. But on the ether hand, the traditional farces still effective, even in the centres, due the relations, that are still actual, with the tribe.
In rural Turkey, "muhtarlik" is smallest administrative unit with an elected adminis trator, comprising usually one settiement unit. However, in Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia, a muhtarlik camprises one central village and smaller sub village settlements such as Kom, mezra, mahalle etc .. Mezra is a larger settiement unit whose popuiatien is mostly engaged in agriculture. Mahalle is larger than mezra and smaller than the village. Kom, mezra and mahalle settlements are located in various distances from the central village, where muhtar (headman) is usually the head of the kabile or lineage reside.
18 The sub-village settlements are related to the central village nat only in arbitrary administrative terms but also in lineage and tribal terms. The civil codes have also entered this settlements. This is why the traditional cultural structures and modern economie and politic relationships co-determine sub-village and village relationships. These relationships can be connected to the land ownership and tenure terms.
Beside the official structure, the local, in particular the rural, people attach great importance to the traditional islamic culture and tribal and family relationships. This is why that religieus and tribe leaders have a great influence on the daily life of the people.
3.4.1.4 Education
The province is one of the provinces of Turkey with a low literacy. The average literacy ratio in Turkey was 78.7 percent (1985). In the same year the literacy of the province was 48 percent. This low literacy is increased and in 1988 it became 72 percent.
In the eentres the central government provided the people many kind of education institutions. As in ether places the tormal education has tour levels: primary schools (5 years), Junior high schools (3 years), High schools (3 years) and higher education (4-6 years). In general the enrolment in the schools in this province is lower than the enrolment in Turkey. In 1986-1987 school year, the pupil per teacher in the province was 46, the sameratio for Turkey was 31 (primary school). The province has also vocational schools at Junior and high schools level. There are 8 technica! junior high schools and 11 technica! high schools.
In the centre of the province there are also higher education possibilities like University. The Harran Univarsity provides education in agriculture, theology and architecture. The most attended faculty is the agricultural faculty. In 1992 almast 500 students were provided of agricultural education.
The relativa high educational level can not be found in the rural areas. The literacy is much more lower, there are minor possibilities for a tormal education. In spite of the literacy campaign organized in the last years the literacy is still very low. Among the men it is 56 percent and among the wamen it is 17 percent. Most of the villages have (85 percent) a primary school. But most of the girls stay at home and do nat attend the education. More than 75 percent of the pupils are boys.
3.4.1.5 Economics
The province Sanliurfa has an active popuiatien ratio of 74,8 percent. The unem ployment is 20 percent. The popuiatien increase is 4,6 percent in the province, and 6,1 percent in the centres. Under these conditions it is very important to create the right economie circumstances to realize an economie growth which is able to feed the population. As it can be seen below the present socio-economie situation do nat make these possible.
19 Agriculture 73,3% lndustry 6,8% Services 19,9%
Table 3.5, Active population per sector source: Economie Report 1989, Chembre of Cemmers Sanliurfa
Because of high birth and population growth, the agricultural sector was not able to provide them of the employment opportunities. The primitive production methods, the feodal relations, and relativa high mechanization after 1950 in the agriculture are the most important reasons why this sector can not create enough employment. On the other hand, the industry and trade sectors in the eentres werejis not be able to catch the rural people who were looking fora job in the eentres (see table 3.6). This is why the province was always a net-migrating province. The migration were particularly to the relatively well developed Cukurova area.
A. Agriculture
According to the 1985 census, 73,3 per cent of the active population were working in the agriculture. Of this active population, 62 per cent preforms payed work, the remaining part help the farmers without being payed. The women are the biggest group that help the family head without being payed. This percentage is higher than that of Turkey. In the harvest season many citizens of the province go to the Cukurova plain to find a job. This kind of workers mostly employed in the agricultural sector.
The agriculture in the province is still governed by the natura! circumstances. The high temperature and low rainfall keeps the productivity very low. Other important factors which determine the productivity is the use of agricultural machinery, fertilizer and remedies. lf one compares the tractor use of Turkey per hectare land and the tractor use of the province, it is possible to conclude that mechnization is too low in the province: 48.41 tractor/ha and 9.05 tractor/ha (1991) respectively. The use of fertilizer per hectare land within the province is 44 percent of the Turkey's fertilizer use. Table 3.7, gives more data about the mechanization of the agriculture in the province as well as other regions.
20 Turkey Cukurova GAP Sanliurfa ------1.Tractor horse power per cultivated land unit (HP /Ha) 1.66 1.83 0.60 0.299
2.Number of tractor/1000 ha 34.46 38.00 11.40 9.05
3.Land per tractor (Hajnum.) 20.66 21.87 55.58 110.5
4.Ekipman per tractor (number/tractor) 5.87 4.80 1.90
5.Combine harvester (number) 11041 929 262 35
6.Tractor (number) 702 822 22 291 27 819 6012
Table 3.7, the mechanization agriculture in Turkey, Cukurova and GAP. Source:-SIS, 1991 General agricultural Census -Anonymous, GAP institute, "Mechanization Needs in the GAP" project 1993
Beside this factors the landownership within the province does not tolerate a "right" distribution of the realized income. The graphic below shows the landownership. In the province, 4 per cent of the families owns 38 per cent of the land. In Siverek, a town of the province, owns 9.5 percent of the families 67 per cent of the land.
~1 J. ~ U.9 ~
O.'il
0.1
0.5 O.L O.! 0.2 01 0.1 0.2 0.3 O.I., 0.5 Ob 01 O.S 0.'3 J.O - Ho=e.holds (%) Landownership among the households in Sanliurfa-centre 21 The families, who have many land hire their land to landless farmers to cultivate it. Many kind of partnership can be found within the province. lt is depended of the obligations of the partners. The main field crops of the province is given below. main crops area (%) Yield (kg/dec) Wheat 38.8 137.8 {240.9) Barley 36.6 148.6 (225.8) Chickpeas 3.1 80.8 (116.9) Lentils 14.2 86.7 ( 99.5) Catton 5.3 Sesam 1.8 Other 0.2 *Turkey's figures between brackets Table 3.8, Main field crops and yield in Sanliurfa source: SIS, 1991 The agricultural field production of the province is characterized (93 per cent of the total area sown) by the dry-farming. The fallow area is 22 per cent of the total agricultural area sown. As it can be seen from the table 3.8, the structure of the yield is determined by the wheat and barley. Wheat is mostly sown in Viransehir, Akcakale and Siverek. The remaining area sown, in the south of the province, can be irrigated by means of groundwater. In this case, the most produced erop is the catton (80 per cent). Of the total cultivated area, the remaining 13.4 per cent is used for fruit archards and other permanent crops (12.1%) and vegetab Ie and flower gardens (1.3%). The livestock within the province is common. Of the farmers, 87 per cent are also stock-farmers. lt is mostly common in the rural areas. The most important livestock are: cattie (136016) and sheep (1856011) (1991 GAG). The livestock in the province is depended from the pasture and meadows. For the farmers, the livestock is very important as a additional income, particularly during the dry years. The livestock in the province is dominated by the dornestic sorts. These keep the meat and milk production low. The province's share of the livestock in the Turkey's livestock is 3.1 percent (1991 GAG). On the other hand, the provice's share of the livestock production is only 2.9 per cent of the country's production. Sheep Goats Cattie Buffaloes Sanliurfa 1856011 34419 136016 793 GAP region 6672172 2637598 912109 21779 Turkey /GAP 14,4% 18,2% 6,9% 5,4% Table 3.9, Uvestock popuiatien of the main sorts in GAP region (1991) Source: SIS, General Agricultural Census (GAG) 22 These circumstances keep the productivity of this sector within limitations. But in spite of this the province is self-sustained in main products. And in some agricultural products, like lentils, pistachios and livestock the province is able to export to ether provinces and countries. B. lndustry Sanliurfa is the one of the most less developed province in Turkey concerning the industry. Only 6.8 percent (1985) of the active popuiatien is employed in this sector. Most of the existing establishments are family owned and operated. These are small private, and in most cases, one or two men concerns. The most common ferm of ownership in the small industry segment of the province's manufacturing industry, is individual propriatorship (95 percent), foliowed by simple partnership (5 percent). The large industry category is also based on individual propertorship. Most owners of the small enterprises employing fewer than 10 workers are originated from the shop floer. The most common activities of this kind of enterprises are: metalworking, shoemaking and woodworking. Insome branches of the textile, chemical, plastic, rubber industries and some branches of the food industry where the required initial investment is larger, the entrepreneur is generally a trader with commercial experience, having accumulated capital from wholesaling or retailing operations. According the situation in 1990 there were 20 operaticnat industries in the province. Six of them are State Enterprises. Other state enterprises within the province are not operational. In this enterprises 800 workers were employed. They are: -CITOSAN, Cement factory -TZDK, Agricultural machinery and equipment -TURKIYE YAPAGI TIFTIK, Carper and woolyarn -SANLIURFA SARAP FABRIKASI, Winery -HILVAN YEM SANAYII, Feed factory -SANLIURFA MEAT COMBINE The most important private enterprise is UPISAS eetton yarn factory having a production capacity of 3.200 tonsjyear and employing 403 werkers. There are seven fleur mills with total production capacity of 172740 tonsjyear and in these enterprises 126 workers are employed (1990). The activities of the remaining enterprises are conserved to: eetton manufacturing (3 enterprises), LPG filling and distribution (1), water distribution (1) and metal boxes. In this enterprises 110 workers are employed. Beside these local industries there are many ether state or private organizations that create employment. Some of these organizations are werking to construct the Ataturk Dam and HEPP, the Tunnels and ether irrigation schemes. There are also state organizations that are active in several sectors like agriculture, Health and education. These organizations mentioned provide totally 19937 workers of a werk (1988). 23 Chapter 4. Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) 4.1 Introduetion As one can conclude from the figures given in the previous chapters about the GAP region, the Region is one of the less developed regionsof Turkey. This fact means not only an economie underdevelopment but it also means politica! and social instability of the Region. To solve this and related problems, and to utilize the natural resources for the sake of the nation, a development project has been planned. This project is called Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP). The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) is the largast and most comprehensive development project ever implemented in Turkey. lt originally evolved around 13 irrigation and energy projects, which will be realised on the Firat (Euphrates) and Dicle (Tigris) rivers. The total area which will be irrigated by these projectsis 1,6 million hectare of which 1.127 million hectare in the Firat river basin. In addition, 7,561 MW of hydroelectric power will be installed to produce electric energy. The total annual electric energy production potential will be 26,3 GWh. lt is planned to complete the Project by the year 2005. Each year,starting trom 1994, 150,000 ha. of land will be brought under irrigation. The largast project of this irrigation and energy system includes the Ataturk DAM and HEPP (Hydroelectric Power Plant), and the Sanliurfa Tunnels. Total investment cast of the DAM, HEPP and the tunnel is approximately 4 billion US$. The total hydroelectric power capacity of this project is going to be 2400 MW (8*300) and the total irrigation area will re ach 0, 706 million hectare. Beside the DAM and the Tunnels, the project also includes irrigation projects (on-farm) to carry the water trom the Tunnels to the arabie land. lt is quite evident that irrigation of such a big area will effect not only the agricultural sector but also ether sectors. lt is also evident that the planned rapid increase on agricultural production will create various problems and bottlenecks, in the agricultural sector, rural areas and urban areas. Therefore in order to make use of the development opportunity and to realise a smoother transformation of the regionat economy the original GAP project is transformed into a multidisciplinary integrated project in 1984. The project became comprehensive and it included many projects related to infrastructure, urbanization, education, industry and the social way of life. These projects will make the Region ready for a modern way of life. This chapter exist of two parts. In the first part the Southeast Anatolia Project (GAP) will be discribed. In this part, saveral aspects of the Project have been explained. The explained aspects are: the historica! development of the Project, development framewerk of the Project, the original projects and finally the Master Plan which formulates the objectives, of the Project. In the secend part, the Lower Firat Project, 24 a part of GAP, will be explained. This project includes many individual projects. Of these projects Ataturk DAM and HEPP, Sanliurfa Tunnels, and irrigation schemes that carry water trom the Tunnels to the arabie land in Sanliurfa-Harran plains will be highlighted. First part is important to understand the Project aims and to analyze them, and secend part have been explained because this study deals with the Ataturk DAM and HEPP. 4.2 The Project 4.2.1 History The first studies on the Firat and Dicle river basin are started in the time of the faunder of the republic Ataturk. The aims of these studies were to measure the flow capacity of the rivers that provided the necessary intermation required for the feasibility studies later. In 1962 the World Bank was approached tor the financing of the Keban Dam which is outside of the GAP region. The Keban on the Firat became the first key unit of the Eastern Anatolia Development Project. Th is dam was completed in 1974. Meanwhile, in the sixties, some of the engineers of the General Directorate of the State Hydraulic Works (DSI) started to study the river basins. As a result of these studies, the organization proposed a set of projects. By means of these projects, the potential of the two rivers would be utilized tor irrigation and energy purposes and to control the extremely uneven nature of the flow. These studies have led to several reports. In 1970 DSI (General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works) prepared a feasibility report tor the Lower Firat Basin named the Lower Firat Project. As formulated herein, this project will provide for the development of irrigation facilities to serve 700,000 hectares of irrigable land of the Lower Firat Plains. According to this report, the Karababa Dam, later on Ataturk DAM, and ether related projects were feasible. lt proposed tostart the construction in 1972. As formulated in this report "the irrigation works should begin in 1977 and the irrigation development is projected to grow at the rate of 25,000 hectares per year after the first year. To achieve cammand of the full service area 700,000 hectares will require 26 years trom the first year of irrigation" (the year 2003). In 1977 an ether development plan, this time for the Region, has been made. lt was prepared by Emsa A.S and namedas "Southeastern Anatolia Region Development Plan". In this report, the development of the Region has been approached trom an integral perspective. Beside the agriculture and industry within the Region ether sectors have also been treated. In this study, firstly the economical and social situation have been established, a development model has been chosen (centre development model) and finally the possible developments and politics have been discussed. This plan have never been implemented. Meanwhile in 1977 the construction of the Sanliurfa Tunnels was started. After three year, in 1980, the construction has been stopped. In the same year (1980) the construction of the irrigation systems in Sanliurfa has been initiated. This project 25 was planned to be end in 1984 but the finish of the project was postponed to 1992. The most important project of the GAP is the Ataturk DAM and HEPP. The construction of the dam has been started in 1983. The development project tor the Region is transformed into a macro compreh ensive project in 1984. The project aimed to developed the Region in every respect, nat only economical development like before. After five year, in 1989, this trans formation was established in reports. The final report is called "GAP Master Plan". Th is plan has many similarity to the previous development plan of 1977. More about the last development report in following paragraph. Very soon after the completion of theMaster Plan in november 1989, a start has been made to institutionalize the GAP project. The needed laws were accepted by the parliament and published in the official newspaper. After this, a GAP development organization has been established. The tasks of this organization are: planning, coordination and management to develop the Region. The institution was allowed to make investments or to adjudicata the required investments to the other organizations. The duration of the organization is tor a period of 15 years. In 1993 there were 153 staff working within the organization. The headquarters is lodged in Ankara. The organization has also a local centre in Sanliurfa. 4.2.2 The Project and the Region's development As explained in the previous paragraph, the Region is nat developed enough. On the other hand the Region has enough potentials to be utilized, water, land etc. The utilization of this (natura!) potentials is nat enough to develop the Region. To develop the Region the investments of the private sector are essential and it is also desired by the government. The private investments were low up to now. The most important reason of this are the, relatively, deptorabie social and economie situation of the Region. Within the Region the infrastructure is nat enough developed. The socio-economie situation is nat developed because of the low investments. In this case there is a vicious-circle which has to be braken. This is exactly the intention of the government within the Reg ion. To break the circle, the government has activated many public institutions. Most of this institutions operate in the whole country. Same of these institutions are in charge of the infrastructure, education of the farmers, providing the education and others are in charge of provision of information and credits to the private sector. The activities of the first group institutions wilt indirectly effect the private sector while the second group will effect them directly. The institutions are nat independent. Since the GAP project became an integrated project the relations between them have been increased. Within this framework the place of the GAP project can be explained with a model given below. 26 lnstüutlona In charge lmprowment of the of lnfTulruc:ture inlnlstructure l insthutlona In charge Altrac:tion of lhe prl- Mant prlvllle ""-!- of credlta end Info. ""'• Intestera ments A simpte development model of the GAP region and the status of the GAP. As explained before, the GAP project originally consisted of the projects to produce energy and to provide water to irrigate the land within the Region. Later (1989) when the Project became an integrated project, it is extended with ether types of infrastructural activities ( construction, transportation, and etc.). lt is not possible, and it is also not the intention of the state, to invest the required investments tor a developed Region in every respect. As it can beseen trom the model the governmental institutions aim to attract private investor in order to imprave the economie structure of the Region. On the one hand the institutions that stimulated the private investors by providing credit and information, and on the other hand the institutions, that imprave the infrastructure, wiJl create the basic conditions which are necessary to make investments. This is exactly the final intention of the GAP. When the Project has been completed, the Region wiJl have enough infrastructure, and stability. The private investors will than come to the Region and make their investments. The extraordinary situation requires a integral approach. The GAP is this approach. 4.2.3 GAP Master Plan The GAP Master Plan study is being carried out by the Consultant of Nippon Koei Co. Ltd., Japan and Yuksel Proje A.S., Turkey joint venture team, in accordance with the contract concluded between the Undersecretariat of the State Planning Organization of the government of the Turkish Republic and the Consultant. The contract between the parties became effective on February 19, 1988. There after the consultant moved to Sanliurfa and started its study. The Master Plan study consist of three Phases. The first stage of the Study in Phase 1 was used mostly tor data colleetien in Ankara and in the GAP region, discussions with PMU (Project Management Unit within the SPO) and SPO to clarify the scope. After the first stage the Study proceeded immediately to the secend stage. The main objectives at this stage are to clarify frameworks tor the Region's development tor the coming decades by setting development targets, identifying priority areas w.r.t. resource capacity and development structure, projecting the Region's economy, popuiatien and employment. The last stage was meant tor the etaboration of the findings in the previews stages and to complete this phase with a report. The Phase 11 was meant to revise the socio-economie projection and to investigate 27 a wider range of alternatives; The comments which were received trom several governmental organizations, discussed during the meetings. This phase is also completed with a report and it was distributed to all the related agencies. In Phase 11 the final Master Plan has been prepared atter all the comments that were received trom related organizations and carefully examined. The Rnal Master Plan of the GAP Master Plan Study consists of four volumes. The volume 1 is a executive summary meant tor the governmental administrators, the volume 2 is the Master Plan itself which is supported by the appendices in volume 3 and 4. The appendices eontain detailed analysis on the present (1988) eonditions by sector and some speeific aspects such as present erop pattern, and yield per unit of land, with all the supporting data. This plan analysis nat only the socio-economie situation of the Region, but it also formulates the objectives, and strategies to imptement the Project in a framework. As mentioned befare these objectives are formulated after the Project formulation. In spite of this, these objectives will be eonsidered as the objectives of the Project. This objectives, and the related several aspects will be presented more detailed in the next paragraph. 4.2.3.1 Objectives and strategies of the Project The national and the regionat present economical situation have been explained before. Here the major Regionat problems are shortlighted: - Low income level - Out-migration trom villages to larger eities - Unfavourable topographic and elirnatic conditions - Distartion in land distributionfownership - Low levels of education and health services - Lack of proper planning and management A. Overall objectives On the basis of the relative position of the Region in the Nation's soeio-economy, the development potantials and problems of the Region, the objectives for the development of the GAP region are set as follows: a)To raise the income levels in the GAP region by improving the economie structure in order to narrow the income disparity between the Region and other reg ions. b)To increase the productivity and employment opportunities in rural areas e)To enhance the assimilative capacity of larger cities in the Region d)To contributs to the national objectives of sustained economie growth, export promotion and social stability by efficient utilization of the Region's resources. 28 To contributs to the Region's objectives and by this to evereome the (other) fundamental problems, the basic strategy tor the Region's development is drawn up as fellows: -·· 1)To develop and manage water and the related land resources tor irrigation, urban and industrial uses. 2)To imprave the land use by rnanaging more efficiently eropping patterns based on marketability and land suitability, and devising appropriate farming practices and farm management systems. 3)To promate the manufacturing industry with the emphasis on agro-related industries and those based on other local resources. 4)To imprave the provision of social services and urban infrastructure tomeet the requirements of local people and to attract technica! and administrative staff to stay in the Region. In the GAP Master Plan study this objectives have been called "overall development objectives" and the strategies have been called "basic development strategt. Beside this objectives and strategies the Project have also secteral development objectives and strategies. This are concerned the agricultural and industrial sectors. The agricultural and industrial objectives and strategies are set up as fellows: B. Agricultural objectives The Master Plan firstly defines the major eenstraint tor the agricultural development. The agricultural development constraints are determined per agricultural sub-sector: agriculture, livestock, forestry, and fishery. To eliminate these, objectives and strategies are set up. Constraints: 1. Agriculture a)low and uneven distribution of rainfall, very high summer temperatures and extended dry periods b) low yield due the limited u se of modern inputs c) low enrolment ratios at different education levels d) land tenure situation with a tew large landlords and many landlessjsmallholder farmers e) inefficient marketing systems f) insufficiency in other support services 2. Uvastock a) Jack of sufficient forages b) animal diseases c) low diversification, dominated by sheep and goat and small shares of cattie and peultry d) peripheral location and dispersed settiement patterns 29 e) inadequacy of the people's knowledge on livestock f) low popuiatien density and the small regional market for fresh milk and meat 3. Forestry a) quite limited torest areas b) illicit cutting of trees for fuelwood c) grazingfcultivating the forests 4. Fishery a) Jack of authorities and initiatives for inland fishery b) unrevealed de mand for fish c) no large lakes Objectives 1) enhancing agricultural productivity and diversifying the farming activities 2) to provide sufficient inputs to argo-processing industries within the Region 3) to increase employment opportunities to minimize the drift of people out of rural are as 4) to contributs to the production of exportable surpluses Strategies 1.0verall 1)to provide irrigation facilities where effective in overcoming adverse agro ecological conditions 2)to promate farm mechanization in proper combination with the application of fertilizer, agrochemieals and irrigation water 3) to distributs better inputs timely and in sufficient quality and quantity 4) to imprave land tenure systems 5) to imprave pricing and marketing to give incentives to farmers 2.Agriculture 1)to identify and promote strategie crops in view of marketability and agro ecological conditions 2)to encourage high erop intensity by establishing erop cycles and adjusting water charges 3)to organize farmers in irrigated areas for on-farm water management and extension 3.Uvestock 1) to improve husbandry productivity by: a)improving the local breeds through artificial and natura insemination b)improving feeding by pasture managementand forage and feed concentrata production c) improving veterinary services 30 2) to imprave the physical infrastructure to promate commercial livestock production 4.Fishery and torestry 1)to utilize dam lak es to promate in land fishery 2)to provide a package of support services tor agriculture including hatchery, fingerling production, training and research, processing, marketing and pricing 3)to conduct intensive aftarestation within the designate torest areas and areas around the reservoirs and to encourage on-farming tree planting C. lndustrial Development Constraints: 1.Manufacturing a)small regional market b )insufficient entrepreneurship c)insufficient capital accumulation and capita! flow out of the Region partly due to tendency of potential local entrepreneurs to avoid association d) insufficient managerial and technica! skilis e) inadequate incentives f)inadequate communication facilities, insufficientjunstable public water and electricity supplies 2) Mining a) limited exploration activities b) lack of sufficient investment capital 3) Tourism a) insufficient accommodation and ether support facilities both in quantity and in quality b) limited exploitation of potential resources c) lack of publicity activities and agents for such purposes Objectives 1)to serve on the one hand as a driving force for economie development of the GAP region and on the ether hand as a demand generator tor educationjtraining and technology development, in order to enhance the Region's images, social welfare and the people's motivation 2)to contribute to the rectification of inter-regional income disparity by expanding high income employment opportunities 3) to contribute to the national objectives of export promotion and foreign exchange earning/ savings 31 Strategies Overall a) to identify and promate industries of strategie importance b)to utilize the strategie industries to demonstrata production and management technologies, praeurement of capital, development of entrepreneurship and access to the international markets d)to establish at least one such strategie industry in each of the five less developed provinces, except Gaziantep e) to streamline functions of related pubtic agencies f)to encourage the local entrepreneurs through credit, intermation technica! supports and ether necessary incentives Mining a)to conduct on the ene hand systematic and comprehensive exploration of mineral resources Tourism a)to increase dornestic tourists and visitors from neighbouring countries and to promate international tourism b )to coordinate activities of related agencies in bath the pubtic and the private sectors tor publicity, restoration of historica! ruins and impravement of accommodations and ether facilities with support services 4.3 The original GAP Projects As mentioned befare the Southeastern Anatolia Project contains 13 main irrigation and energy projects, 7 of that are in the lower Firat basin and 6 are in the Tigris basin. The project envisages the construction of 22 dams and 17 hydrapower plants on these two rivers and their tributaries. By means of these projects 1, 7 miJlion area wilt be irrigated and 27 GWh energy wilt be produced. lt is planned to complete the Project by the year 2005. Therefore each year 150,000 ha. of land wilt be brought under irrigation.These main projects and their main futures wilt given below: 32 Projects power energy irrigation (MW) (GWh) (ha) Euphrates 1. Karakaya DAM and HEPP 1800 7354 2. Lower Euphrates Project 2450 9024 706281 3. Border Euphrates 852 3168 4. Suruc-Baziki 146500 5. Adiyaman-Kahta 195 509 77824 6. A.-Goksu-Araban 7 43 71598 7. Gaziantep 89000 Miscellaneous Projects 14 42 35440 14 Dams, 11 HEP 5318 20140 1126643 Tigris 1. Dicle-Kralkizi 204 444 116080 2. Batman 198 483 38000 3. Batman-Silvan 240 964 257000 4. Garzan 90 315 60000 5. llisu 1200 3835 6. Cizre 240 1208 121312 Miscellaneous Projects 26312 8 Dams, 8 HEPP 618704 Table 4.1, The original GAP souree DSI 1993 About the present situation of this schemes can be said that some of them are under construction and some of themarein the planning stage. Ta give this situation the table below had been produced. project name status(%) 1.Karakaya dam and HEPP 100 2.Ataturk dam and HEPP 99 3.Dicle dam and HEPP 47 4.Cinar-Goksu dam 96 5.Baman dam 75 6.Kralkizi dam 4 7 Table 4.2 Status of GAP in april1993 source:GAP administration, april 1993 33 4.4 Lower Firat project . The most important project within the GAP project is the Lower Firat (Euphrates) Project. The project is a multi-purposes project: irrigation, energy, fishery and tourism. The irrigation purpose is the most important aspect (60 percent of the expenditures) of the project. Th is project deals with the largest area within the Region. The planned area to irrigate is 7 hundred thousand hectare which is 41 percent of the planned tot?l area to be irrigated within the Region. This irrigation area is situated in Sanliurfa, Adiyaman, Gaziantep and Mardin provinces. By completing, this project the GAP project will enter in a new phase. This, because the most fertile plains within the Region will be provided of water and through this the socio-economie development of the Region will be started. The experiences done in this area, will also be used in ether area's within the Region. The energy produced by this project will be transmitted to the whole country. For this, a national transmission line is available, within the Region the demand for the electric energy is not very large. This is why at present the most of the produced energy is transported to the Western part of the country. The Region has no enough possabilties (industry) to eensurne the electric energy produced by the project. To irrigate the mentioned area many projects have been developed. Through these projects it will be possible to transport the water to the plains. There are also supporting projects to imprave the plains to be irrigated. These projects will be dealt with below. To understand the level of several projects a model has been developed and given below. This model also gives the inputs and outputs of the Lower Firat Project. Firal l 1 CMOM Alaluri lMOM A simple model of the Lower Firat Project system model lt is planned to transport the irrigation water from the Ataturk DAM to the Sanliurfa and Harran plains in 1994. This means the irrigation water is then available for the use of the farmers. The farmers can use this water only if the irrigation systems are 1CMOM: Construction, managment, epperation and Maintanance 34 ready. At this moment the related institutions dotheir best to finish these systems. Main futuresof the Ataturk DAM and HEPP and other irrigation systems will be treated below. Firstly a list of this projects will be given than the projects dealing with Sanliurfa, Harran Plains will be elaborated. Projects irrigation area (ha) Ataturk DAM and HEPP 706 281 Sanliurfa Tunnels 476 374 Sanliurfa-Harran Plains 141 535 Mardin-Ceylanpinar Plains 334 930 Sivirek-Hivan 160 105 Bozova pumped 69 702 Table 4.3, Lower Firat Projects source:GAP administration, april 1993 Same of these projects are in planning phase and others are under construction. As can be seen trom the status of GAP graph (graph 4.1) the most completed project is the Lower Firat Project, particular the Ataturk DAM and HEPP. The Tunnels which will carry the water to the plains are also almast completed. According to the plans made by the government the irrigation will firstly start in the Sanliurfa and Harran plains. 4.4.1 Ataturk Dam and HEPP The Ataturk DAM constructed on the Euphrates river is a key unit of the Southeastern Anatolia Project. The first study tor such a DAM has been made in 1970 by the State Hydraulic Works. Till 1981 (military coup) it was nat possible to start with the construction of the DAM. Firstly a start has been made with the construction of the diversion tunnels. The construction of the body had been started in November 1983. According to DSI, the DAM will be completed in the end of 1993. The DAM is financed by dornestic sourees and designed and built by Turkish constructors. The institutions that were involved to construct the DAM and HEPP are listed below. 1) DSI, this organization is in charge of the supervision. 2)Ata lnsaat A.S., this organization is in charge of the construction of the main parts of the DAM 3)EJWA, a joint venture between Sulzer-Escher Wijss Ltd and BBC Brown. lt is in charge of the of the HEPP part (mechanic and electric equipment manufacturing and assembling). 4)AEJV, a joint venture between two Sweden and a Turkish compony. This organization is in charge of the consultancy of DSI. 5)TEK, Turkish Electric lnstitution. After the implementation of the HEPP this organization take it over trom DSI and the operate the system to produce energy. 35 Ataturk dam is as mammoth rock-fill type dam with a drainage basin measuring 92 square kilometres; its body rises 169 meter trom the base and its length is 1,6 kilometre. The total water capacity of the drainage is 49 km-3. Ta construct the DAM and HEPP more than 7000 workers per year have been employed The water held by the DAM wiJl mainly be used tor two purposes: electric energy production and irrigation. The water used to produce electric energy will flow its natura! way, and the water which wiJl be used tor the irrigation, will be transported by several projects (tunnels and pumping) to the plains. 4.3.1.1 Hydroelectric Power Plant The hydroelectric plant has a capacity of 8,9 biJlion kWh per annum. lt has 8 units of 300 MW per unit. Each unit gets the needed water to produce the energy trom separate tunnels. The output voltage of the units is 15 kV. This voltage is firstly transformed to 380 kV and the produced energy is transported to the switchyard near the DAM site. From the swichyard several transmission lines transmit the energy to Ankara (3 lines), Karakya, llisu, Gaziantep and Elbistan. Transmission to the cities that are near the DAM is done with 154 kV ( Urfa Cim., Adiyaman) and 34,5 kV ( Karababa, 2 lines). To produce 8,9 billion kWh 24 biJlion m-3 water will pass the turbines in a year. After the irrigation has started the produced energy will decrease to 8,1 biJlion kWh. For this 22 billion m-3 water will pass the turbines. The remaining water, 4 billion m- 3, (18%) will flow into the plains. According to the TEK publications, the product cast of one kWh is 3.5 US cent. At present (April, 1993) the construction of the DAM is almast (99,) completed. The operatien of the electra-mechanica! part will be continued by TEK. The first 4 units are under operation, and up to now (April 15, 1993) 2, 7 biJlion kWh has been produced. The fifth unit is ready to operate but there are some complications that prevent the take over by TEK. The installation of other units is continuing. 4.4.1.2 lrrigation Schemes 4.4.1.2.1 Sanliurfa Tunnels The Sanliurfa Tunnels will carry the irrigation water trom the Ataturk DAM to the Sanliurfa- Harran, and Mardin-Ceylanpinar plains. The tunnel system consist of a pair of parallel tunnels 26,4 kilometres of which each will be carrying 328 cubic meters of water per second. The water which will be provided by the tunnels will irrigate 4 7637 4 hectare arabie land. Of this land 148649 hectare land wiJl be irrigated by pumping. The remaining plains (229 807 ha) will nat be irrigated by the water provided by the tunnels, but to irrigate these plains other irrigation schemes will be implemented. At present these schemes are still in planning phase. The construction of the tunnels has been started in 1977. According to the first contract the tunnels should completed in 1984. In 1980 the first contract has been abolished and in 1981 with an other organization (Akpinar Yapi San. A.S.) a new 36 contract has been made. According to this contract the construction should be completed in the end of 1987 but the contract has been extended till june 1993. Up to now (15.04. 1993) 657 million US$ has been spend. 4.4.1.2.2 On-farm lrrigation Projects The period from the old (present) social situation to the new one can be seen as transition period. The projects that will make the irrigation possible are important. As a new phenomenon the irrigation has many aspects like technological, economics, social but also educational. To reach the maximum desired aims many projects have been planned within the GAP project. Some of these projects deal with the infrastructure and some of them deal with the marketing of the products after the irrigation. These projects are going to be implemented by different private and state institutions. In this study it is nat possible to treat all of these projects. Firstly the projects that will carry the water trom the tunnel to the arabie land will be treated, this are called "irrigation systems". Beside the construction of these systems, the eperation of them is also important. The project tor this purpose is called "MOM project". This will also be treated. Other projects, like "landgrouping" and "Marketing and Crop pattem study" will be exclude. These projects are not directly related with the irrigation. A. lrrigation systems At present the construction of the on-farm irrigation systems are delayed. The construction of the irrigation systems that will carry water to the Sanliurfa-Harran plains are continuing. Other systems (Part of Sanliurfa-Harran, Mardin-Ceylanpirnar, Siverek-Hilvan, and Bozova pupped) are still in planning stage. In 1994 some of these on-farm projects will start to be constructed (Sanliurfa 3th and Harran 6th part). The Sanliurfa and Harran plains are divided into five pieces. The projects, their area's to irrigate and their present status are given in a table below. Project area to irrigate (ha) status(%) Sanliurfa part 1 43 041 80 Sanliurfa part 2 24 920 50 Harran part 1 77 Harran part 3 22 861 3 Harran part 4 23 738 37 Harran part 5 22 045 3 Table 4.4 lrrigation schames and irrigation area in Sanliurfa-Harran plins source: GAP administration, April 1993 The Sanliurfa part 1 irrigation project will irrigate 43 041 ha land. This part of the plain is situated in the southeast of the province centre. The water trom the Tunnel 37 will be carried to small hydroelectric power plant near the province centre. This plant has a power of 50 MW. The water passes this plantand it flows into the irrigation area. According to the contract, this project should be completed at the end of 1984. This is not realized and the contract has been extended un till the end of 1993. Completion of this part is very important because other parts can only be operated when this part is ready to operate. The Harran Part 1 project consists of the construction of the main channel which will carry water trom the HEPP reservoir to the area which is situated 40 km's in the southeast of the province centre. Th is channel will carry water to irrigate 100000 ha land in the Harran plains. The main channel will have a length of 118 kilometres and it will carry 84 m-3 water per second. Digging of 110 kilometres has been completed and 76 kilometres of it is cemented. This part must be completed to be able to irrigate the Harran Plains. lt's construction has been started in 1986 and it should be completed in 1989. But this is not realized and the contract has been extended till october 1993. B. MOM project To develop the water and land resources irrigation systems has been constructed in Turkey. These systems must also be operated and maintenanced. During the development of the country the number of such systems increased rapidly. By hte time the epperation become a problem. The Directorate of the State Hydraulic Works is the appointed institution which constructs, operatas and maintenances these irrigation systems . Till 1992 this institution has constructed irrigation systems to irrigate in total 1, 7 million hectare of land. 75 percent of these systems are operated by DSI and the rest by ether organizations (private). During the eperation of these systems by DSI many unexpected problems have occurred. The efficiency and the affectivity of the eperation was not as good as desired. Too many water per hectare has been used: average needed 4500 m- 3/ha, and used was 10285 m-3/ha. The irrigation ratio, which is defined as ratio between the real irrigated area and the aimed irrigation area, is low (70 percent). The farmers that irrigate their land supplied by these systems must pay a certain amount. In 1991 the received amount was only 33 percent which is very low. An other important problem is the high ratio of personal of DSI per 10000 ha land. The world average tor this ratio is 30 persons/10000 ha and in the system of the DSI, it is 72,5 men/10000 ha. lf the same system is going to be used in the GAP region it will be a big trouble tor the state. lf one considers the area which will be irritated by GAP (1.6 million ha) the same system means doubling the eperation personal of the DSI. To prevent, this a new system is going to be used. This system will firstly be used in a pilot area. lf it is succeded, it will be expended to the other area's. This system is called MOM, Management, Oparation and Maintenance. This system aims the participation of the farmers. Through this, the dependenee of 38 the system trom the state will decrease. In every stage, water transport, distribution, saving the farmers will get responsibilities. They wilt see the system as their own system. At this stage, the start with this system has been made. To implament it, a contract has been made with English (Halcrow), Australian (Rural Water Corp.} and Turkish (Dolstar) firms. They are studying the present irrigation systems in Turkey. When the instanation of the channels are ready, MOM will made operational. The pilot project is planned to be tor a period of tour years. The result of the project will be the identification of best MOM model tor the Region, 4.5 Definition and Bounding Since the Project is too comprehensive, beunding of the study area is evident. The time is nat sufficient to deal with the whole Project. At project basis the beunding is as fellows (going trom macro to micro): GAP, Lower Firat Project, Ataturk DAM and HEPP and systems that wiJl carry water to Sanliurfa-Harran plains. A TA study should have well defined technology definition. In this study the technology is defined as fellows: when the analysis are concerned the GAP region, the technology is the GAP, and when it is concerned the Sanliurfa-Harran plains, the technology is defined as the Ataruk DAM and HEPP, the Sanliurfa Tunnels, and the lrrigation schemes that will carry water trom the Tunnels to the arabie land of Sanliurfa-Harran plains. The analysis of the Project occurs according to the same bounding. Firstly the general socio-economie situation of the Region has been assessed and analyzed. The findingsof these general analysis w.r.t the Region arealso valid for the Sanliurfa province. Secondly the analysis are concentrated to the area which is firstly going to be irrigated (Sanliurfa-Harran plains) with the water trom the Ataturk dam. The analysis at macro level describes the general situation of the Region, inclusive Sanliurfa and Harran plains, and the analysis at micro level (farmers, households} describes the particularly the situation in Sanliurfa-Harran Plains. Findings at micro level can also be used for ether area's within the Region since the rural area's have many similarities. The place of the GAP in this study must be considered in the light of these bounding. 39 Chapter 5 Technology Assessment 5.1 Introduetion In recent years technology assessment has become an important evaluation tooi and a whole range of different concepts covers particular areas in polities, business and science. The concept of technology assessment was introduced by a U.S. congressman E. a. Dadarrio in 1967. Since than the concept of the TA has been subject to saveral minor and some major changes. Up to now there has never been a world-wide consensus about the definition of TA. Th is study will not discus the definition of the TA and its theory. On the other hand a study should have a theoretica! base from which the study can start. To make this a brief treatment of the TA and its components will be given in this study. Fore more about the subject one can consult the relevant literature. This study have the intention to apply this technique in spite of the limited time. 5.2 Technology and Society In order not to confuse concepts from the start, it is necessary to define what exactly is meant by technology. Technology is the formalized, standardized and systemized theory of the principles of the technique in a given society. The technic in this definition refers to the manner of execution or performance in relation tormal and practical details and applied to e.g. the arts it is machanical rather than creative. The technology is not an independent phenomenon. There is a interaction between the society and the technology. The intense development of technology during the last 80 years and its application in all the activities of humanity have brought about various social, economie, environmental and cultural changes with positive and negative effects, not only to the initial users, but on secondary and tertiary users as well. We often hear of the damage that technology has caused due to inadequate evaluation of effects. Some times the use of a product or a certain technology is torbidden only afterit has already damaged the environment or society, for instance, in the case substances that may produce cancer, pollute rivers and lakes or cause genetic mutations. As a result of such experiences, a fear of technology has been have aroused, as shown by the open demonstrations that have taken place against nuclear and thermo plants generating electricity. This situation has led industries that have certain social responsibilities, and Governments of all countries, to consider means of evaluating adequately the effects of the u se of technology. Th is consideration has been lead too the development of techniques to understand the possible effects of the certain technology and to minimize the undesired changes. Some of these techniques are: TA (fechnology Assessment), EIA (Environmentallmpact Assessment, SlA (Social Impact Assessment). Between these techniques TA is the most comprehensive 40 one. lt is nat limited to one site as it is the case in others. The attention given to technology, social setting and impacts is, in principle, considered of equal importance. An other important characteristic of TA is its scope which is in principle, nat limited in time. Long term impacts are as important as the short term ones. TA does nat confine itself to primary impacts but considers higher order impacts: impacts of impacts as equal important. But in practice a TA, in order nat to get endless, has restriet itself, as it is the case in this study. Technology Assissment is meant as an early-warning system to control, direct and, if necessary, restrain technological development so as to maximize the public good while minimizing the public risks. Considering this, our definition of the Technology Assessment is: "Technology Assessment may bedefinedas the systematic study of the effects on society that may aceure when a technology is introduced, extended or modified, with special emphasis on the impacts that are unintented, idirect, and delayed" (Joe Coates, Office of Technology Assessment). 5.3 Definition and Components of TA Technology Assessment is an examinatien of what at various levels (enterprise, sector or national economy) must be expected intheuse of a technology; more exactly it is an assessment of the consequences to society that may arise out of the introduetion of e new technology. As mentioned befare there is nat a consensus about the definition of the TA. In all of the definitions a "systematic" study of the "impacts" are required when a new technology is introduced. The study should nat be limited to the first order impacts or to the desired impacts. Impact identification is an important feature of an assessment. lt can grow only trom a thorough description of the technology in question and an equally thorough description of the society within which the technological delivery system operates. Beside the impact identification and society description the Technology Assessment consistsof the following components (Porter, 1980). COMPONENTSOF A TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT STUD V 1. Problem definition 5. Impact identification 2. Technology description 6. Impact analysis 3. Social description 7. Policy analysis 4. Social forecast 8. Communication of results Table 5.1 Components of Technology Assessment 41 As it is stated by Porter the occurrence of this components in TA fellows the given logical sequence but this sequence should natbeseen as linear. In practice the results of one component can make its necessary to return to an earlier step and iterate as long as necessary to attain satisfactory results. This can be seen as a feed-back. The feed-back implies adaptation of the earlier steps. Such a adeption is nat always possible. This is the case when the TA study has been made during the implementation period. The project is at his final stage. In this case TA should terecast the possible impacts in order to minimize the unintended impacts. Aims lie at the root of development projects and to bring these aims within reach, tools are looked tor. In this sense the successof a project can be measured by the extent in which the chosen tools have contributed to achieving the aims. This important notion is given a central place in our TA-model used in chapter 6. Starting trom the defined aims ( seen chapter 5}, fitting tools have been selected (Ataturk DAM and HEPP, and irrigation schemes) and the impacts of these tools are torecasted. lf the contribution of the tools are little to the aims there are two possibilities: if possible choosing ether tools or adjusting the aims, and taking complementary measures. 5.3.1 Problem definition and Bounding A TA study starts with a case-oriented problem definition. Every study has its own problem. An explicit definition of the problem is important because it will effect the evaluation of the project. What the "problem" is may be foregone conclusion trom a particular standpoint; the task at hand is to open it to question. lts definition can vary depending upon who does the defining. An ether point is the beunding of the study. lt is nat possible to study every aspect of the impacts. Beunding an assessment should be an ongoing activity. lt depends on constraints set by the study sponsor, and also on characteristics of the development under assessment, the critica! impact areas, and the selection of policy options. Major beunding decisions should be made relatively early in the assessment. 5.3.2 Technology Description and Forecasting The technology introduced must be caretul described and its future state terecast befare impactscan be identified, analyzed, ar evaluated. This step occurs at two distinct different places in the cycle. The first time when appropriate tools have to be tound to achieve the primary aims. lf the impacts resulting trom the chosen tools do nat correspond the primary aims a consideration can be made to choose ether tools, or adapt the tools. Comprehensive description of the state of the art of the technology is necessary but net sufficient tor accurate predietien of its tuture impact. Technology description is aften the assessment task tor which the most concrete data exist, particularly if the assessment concerns an existing technology. In this case the technology going to be implemented is an existing technology. The size of the primary technology in 42 this study has already been bounded and described by which it is nat possible to adapt or to change it if the impacts are nat as they are desired. In spite of this there is possibilities to introduce new technologies to decrease unintended impacts of the primary technology. This is of course the following step after this study which can make a suggesting to introduce supporting technology. 5.3.3 SOCial Description and forecasting A technology introduced into different social structures would, in general, produce different impacts. Befare the identification of the impacts of a certain technology the society must be described. By this the effect of the technology introduced can be determined. This step is also important for the evaluation of the project. The aims of a project can nat be considered trom the social context. In this study the society description is done to make possible to analyze the aims of the project. Beside this the society indicators will be used fortheimpact identification and forecasting. Adequate description of the whole of society would be an impossible task. Fortuna tely, it is nat required in TA. What is neededis a delineation of those elementsof the social context that are the potential elements that will possible be effected by the technology introduced. Social indicators are aggregate measures of various phenomena that collectively indicate the state of a society of some subset of that society. Ta describe the society in question social and economical indicators are used. The secteral (agriculture and industry) state, population, religion, and kinship are some of those indicators used. A detailed description would be beyond the limitsof this study. That is why a brief description has been given of the society in the Region. 5.3.4. Impact Assessment The impacts assessment contains three elements: impact identification, impact analysis and impact evaluation. They are nat implemented separately but they are part of a systematic repetitive exercise of an iterative nature. During this process the technology and the society within which the technology is introduced are the basic leaving points. Impact identification consistsof detecting and qualifying the effects of a technology on its environment in the broadest possible sense. In the impact analysis, the detected impacts are quantified, if possible, in order to make a comparison possible. Impact identification is largely a process invalving the systematic application of imagination and intuition. This does nat mean that wild guesses will do! Impact that can neither be supported by campeiling rational nor substantiated by causal relationships destroy the credibility of an assessment as a decision making aid. However, it does nat mean that there is no "sure-fire" algorithm for impact identification. Techniques for the identification are of two basic types: scanning of tracing. The simplest scanning technique is the checklist, which is merely a listing of potential impacts. The checklist is employed as a guide for the assessor to ensure a more or less exhaustive impact search. The relevanee tree is 43 the simplest and most common employed tracing method. In this tree the interrelationships (or linkages) are represented between various members of some set of elements (impacts). In this technique the central question is "what if?" at each node. Strategy lays down the grand structure within which the imagination and intuition of the assessment team are to function; specific techniques provide the tormal schemes tor their systematic application. In many studies different dimensions have been distinguished that can serve to identificate the impacts. These are, as it is done by Porter, : Environmental, Social, Economie, Technologicaland Politicaljlnstitutionaljlegal. Impact assessment can be done according this dimensions. In this study the most attention will be given to the economie, social and environmental impacts. Most of the aims are economical and social. By this the camparisen between the aims and the impacts can be emphasized. Beside this some attention will be given to the politica! impacts because this aspect is very actual and noticeable in the GAP region. Each dimension will further be elaborated below. The impact evaluation is the process of assigning the value. The value of sarnething is usually assigned relativa to that sarnething camparabie with which the evaluator is familiar. In this process, the aims formulated, and the foreseen impacts lay centraL In this precess, each indicator will be assigned with a value, and a matrix should be displayed. The final conclusion must be supported by this evaluation matrix. 5.3.4.1 Economie Impacts The basic objective of an economie analysis is to determine whether the benefits derived trom a project outweigh to the casts incurred. The analysis of economie impacts tor a specific project or technology has its crigins in the investment decisions of private firms. The investment casts is weighed against the expected return. Such analysis are called cast-benefit analysis. This is a narrow consideration. TA considers casts and benefits far beyend to a particular firm. lt includes casts to environment, to society at large, and these institutions that plan, finance, regulate, and otherwise interact with the development. Considering the economie impacts there are direct and indirect casts and benefits. lt is clear that direct casts and benefits are accountable to the development being assessed. Beside the investment casts there are operatien casts. During the eperation time the revenues will be received. This kind of impacts can be expressed in dollars values. There are also economie impacts which must be expressed in ether units. Same of these impacts are: employment, productivity, land use, diversification of the crops. These and other indicators will be used to be able to campare the befare and after situations. First the direct casts and benefits of the project will be determined. Secend the economie impact of the project to the Turkish economy will be assessed. Third the impacts on the Region's (Sanliurfa province) economy will be calculated. In this 44 process the agricultural sector will get the most attention. The first order impacts will occur in this sector, and via this, the impacts will diffuse to the other sectors particularly the manufacturing. 5.3.4.2 Social Impacts The social impacts deals with the analysis of impacts of technology on people. Effects across braad groupings of people are referred to as social; impacts on individuals are termed psychological. In this study the first kind will be discussed because up to now no study has been made about this aspect. ldentification of social impacts begins with comparison of the "projection with project" and the "projection without project"- the ditterenee being the impacts. The boundaries of social impactsanalysis are somewhat uncertain. The boundary be tween social and economical impacts in such areas as equity and non-quantifiable casts and benefits is unclear. Local, political, and institutional impacts are nat always readily distinguished trom social ones. To solve this problem many training and relevant professionals are required. This study has nat been made by professionals as mentioned, but only by me who has a technica! background. The education at the univarsity tilled the gap about the social sciences by providing economical, and social training. This study distinguished two kind social impacts; one which occurs during the implementation of the project and other which occurs after the project implementa tion. To campare the withand without projections saveral indicators will be used. This indicators are concerned as to be social indicators. This indicators will tagether explain most of the social impacts. As it is stated by Porter the social impacts aften appear as higher-order impacts. Dealing an indicator the sequence order will be mentioned.The used indicators are identified in chapter 7 of this study. 5.3.4.3 Environmental Impacts Environmental impacts analysis discuss the impacts on the natural environment. As mentioned befare the introduetion of a new technology could also have consequences on the physical environment. The size of the effect of the technology may depend on the technology size but alsohowit is implemented. A high way or a hydrapower plant will effect the environment much more than a television. lt is important to meet the needed measurements to minimize the undesired effects during the implementation of a project like a dam. lt is common, that environmental impacts are nat considered seriously in the development countries. This implies the projects are firstly implemented, and if there is any undesired environmental impact than measures have been taken. This kind of impacts can be categorized in two groups: impacts that will occur during the project implementation and impacts that occur after. There are saveral areas that can be effected by the technology introduced. Those are: land, air, water, noise, radiation, and .ecological system. Noise and radiation are in this study excluded because they are nat relevant tor the technology in question. 45 Impacts on ecological system are also excluded because no study has been made before to determine the ecological life in the area. Impacts on land are dealt with under the categoriesof land use, erosion, solid-waste disposal, and pollutants. Some of the parameters for water-quality are: sedimentation, pH, algae concentration, and parameters tor the air pollutants are: carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, etc. 5.3.4.4 Political Impacts lnstitutions and politics are vital factors in the implementation of a technology. The institutions discuss and decide to introduce a new technology. lnstitutions may be tormal or informal. Governmental agencies, interest groups, and cultural institutions become involved with the introduetion and implementation of a certain technologies. Even countries may be involved to proteet their own interest. Politicscan be considered as the domain of power relationships. Presumably, the parties with power is a situation are those who obtain the most benefits with the tewest costs. The parties who have the most profit trom the technology will do their best to continue the process and parties who have the most loss will do their best to stop the process. Politics and institutions are very closely intertwined. lt is important to determine the parties and institution involved with the new technology. The interestsof those parties and institutions can be used as basis to analyze the politica! impacts. 5.3.4.5 Technological Impacts The technology which is going to be introduced will increase the technological capacity of the place where it is going to be introduced. In this process, on the one side the technologyin question will increase the technology capacity, and on the other side there the technologies that are introduced after the introduetion of the technology in question. In the second case the technologies refers to the influence of supporting technologies on the new technology. In the extreme case, introduetion of the new technology will be impossible if the required supporting technologies are lacking. Technology has been considered in several aspects (Technology tor Developing countries, Tilburg). In this study, two aspectsof the technology have been considered: "material", and "persons". Other considerations given by Tilburg are to detailed, and they can not be evaluated because of the insufficient data. First aspects refers to the hardware, like machines, equipments, and so. Second aspect refers to the manpower which is required to operate, to maintain, to manage the technology. The technological impacts of the technology in question will be widespreaded. lt will not be limited to the agriculture but it will also effect the industry. 46 5.4 Method used in this study The methad used in this study can be explained as fellows: Firstly an analyze of the project aims formulated by the master Plan has been executed. In this process only the overall objectives of the project have been considered. At first a general approach has been given about the objectives then the objectives are grouped according totheimpact dimensions, as in a TA-study, that are possible. lf we consider the "aims-tools-impact" cycles this analyze includes the "aims" (chapter 6). The objectives of this analyze is: firstly to determine wether the aims and starting points of these aims are still actual or nat. Secondly, the findings will be used to evaluate the ''tools" that are chosen to reach the "aims". Finally, the results of this analyze will be used to campare them with the "impacts" that are identified and analyzed in chapter 7. Secondly the "impacts" from the "aims-tools-impacts" cycles will be analyzed. Independent of the objectives of the projects, the possible impacts of the ''tools" will be determined. In this part the "impacts" are analyzed according to the methods of the TA Th is methad includes the identification, analysis, and evaluation of the "impacts". The results of bath analysis ("aims" and "impacts") will finally be used to evaluated the "tools". 5.4.1 Evaluation Method: MuHicriteria evaluation Several methods have been developed to evaluate the Projects. After the separate assessment of each impact in the impact analysis, the next step is to weigh the different impacts, thereby determining their relative value in the TA system. All methods have more or less the same basic principles, in that they try to select the optima! course of action trom the available alternatives, using a multitude of criteria, here translated in impacts, for assessing the alternatives, (H. Voogd and L.Lemmens). These methods are developed to evaluate two or more alternatives. For this, an evaluation matrix has to be drafted first. In such a matrix, the choice possibilities are compared with the different criteria that can be formulated. In principle the aims could be used as criteria but, it is better to campare the impacts. The aims can be translated in intended impacts and unintended impacts can be added. lt is also possible to indicate the scores for the different alternative options with respect to the different impacts. As indicated earlier, the impactscan be qualitative of quantitative. Bath kind can be added to the evaluation matrix. To evaluate the options an equation can be defined, that includes the quantitative as well as qualitative impacts. Finally, the different equation calculated for the different technology options can be used to judge which technology has to be chosen in order to achieve the best results. 47 Considering this study there is one option only, which has be evaluated. In this case, an evaluation matrix has to be drafted first. In this matrix, the following criteria must be formulated: impacts that are intended and unintended, these impacts must be indicated as benefits or casts, and the weigh of the different impacts. To evaluate the technology two equation must be defined: one which expresses the benefits of the technology, and one which expresses the casts of the technology. This requires some adaptation of the equations developed by H. Voogd or L. Lemmens. Finally, a final equation which expresses the benefits against casts, can be defined to evaluate the technology. As explained earlier (chapter 1) it was not possible to measure an important number of the impacts. lt was also not possible to determine the weights of the individual impacts. Because of these it is not possible to evaluate the project according to the multicriteria evaluation method. This is why, the evaluation executed in this study is basedon mine experiences, and socio-economie situation of the Region. 48 Chapter 6 Analysis of the project aims formulated in the Master Plan 6.1 Introduetion lt is camman that every project starts with one ar more objective(s). In most cases this (these) objective (s) is (are) formulated by the parties that have interests. In this sense the objectives can be seen as the consensus of this parties. Ones the objectives are formulated, in the following steps they must be worked out to reach the formulated aims. Those steps contain many activities, like determination of strategies, choosing the most fitled tools and implementation of the chosen tools. In this process the aims lie at the roots of the project. As mentioned befare during the development of the project many official reports have been produced about the GAP project. In those reports the project aims, explicit ar nat, are formulated. lt is impossible to deal with all of the aims formulated in different reports. This study will limit itself to the aims formulated in the GAP Final Master Plan. Most of the aims formulated are concerning the economie situation of the Region. There arealso aims w.r.t. the sociallife within the Region. No aims have been formulated about the environment, technology . This is why the analysis of the aims will be done in three dimensions: economics, and social. The final situation which is achieved by the project has important politica! consequences. Owing to this, some attention will be payed to the politica! aspect of the aims. The aims formulated in the Final Master Plan concerns the Southeastern Project (GAP) and the GAP region. This study generally deals with the Lower Firat Project and particular the area round the Sanliurfa province. Ta analyze the aims Region's data given in chapter 3 will be used. In addition it will be supported by the data of the province. In many respects (culture, income level, language, economie activities) the Region corresponds to the Sanliurfa province. This chapter contains two part. In the first part a general consideration has been given of the project aims. This is done because of the structure of the Master Plan. Formulating the aims, Master Plan distinguishes three deferent steps: development problems, development objectives, and development strategy. Each step has been considered separately. In the secend part the development objectives has been analyzed more detailed. In order to do this analyze the TA-technique set out in chapter 5 has been used. Going trom the development objectives, the aims dimensions have been distinguished. lf the objectives have na aims w.r.t a certain dimension (technology, legal, ar environmental) this dimension has been set out of the analyze. 49 6.2 General approach lt is important by whom a the project have been started. The projects set up by a private firm will ditter in some respects trom the projects set up by the public sector. In a private firm the profitability of the project is highlighted. As mentioned befere the aims formulated in the GAP Final Master Plan are set up after the project proposal and feasibility studies. The GAP developed by the government are meant for the sake of the public. This point of view effects the priorities w.r.t. projects aims. As it can be seen trom the objectives of the Project they only deal with the improving of the Region's economie structure ,and by this to contributs the National goals. Original projects were meant to produce electric energy and to irrigate the arabie land within the Region. According the feasibility report of 1970 prepared by DSI there were enough water and land within the Region. Utilization of this resources would effect the Region as wellas the country. In this report no objectives have been formulated as it is done in the Master Plan. In the Master Plan three levels have been distinguished concerning the development Objectives. Firstly the development problems have been determined. Two kind of development problems have been distinguished: the more immediate development problems and the more fundamental development problems. The development problems are the starting point of the ether steps. On the basis of the relative position of the Region in the Natien's socio-economy and the development problems of the Region, the objectives of the Project have been determined. Objectives are set up as starting point to solve the socio- · economie problems of the Region. In this casethereis a streng relationship between the development problems and the objectives set tor the Project. This will be treated below. As last level the strategies are set up. This are ways that will be walked to reach the objectives. The strategies set tor this project can be seen as more concrete ferm given to the objectives. According the same structure, as foliowed tor these three levels, the objectives, and strategies per sector ( Agriculture and lndustry ) are determined. These three levels will be treated more in the following paragraphs. This chapter only deals with the overall development objectives and basic strategies. 6.2.1 Development Problems The GAP region at present faces a range of problems which are interacting with one another. These problems are the most important constraints that influence the development negatively. To explain the development problems and their relations to each ether a "problem structure of the GAP region" has been made. This structure gives the social, economie and natural problems of the Region. According the structure there is a complicated relationship between this problems. 50 The structure distinguishes on the one side more immediate problems and on the other side more fundamental problems. The more immediate problems are those economie and social problems that are the more visible . They are the results of the more fundamental problems. Between those two problems there are many agricultural, industrial and social problems. Those intermediate problems are treated in the specific agricultural and industrial development problems. This structure can be summarized as fellows: UnfaiiOurable topo graphlc and dimalle condMions Lew lncome and unemployment servlees More fundamental Problems------more immediate problems Problem Structure of the GAP Region As it can be seen from the problem structure the more fundamental problems create a immature economie structure. The relation between this are not in one way, from the more fundamental problems to the economie structure. The "unfavourable topographic and elirnatic conditions" are the only independent variabie which have a one way relation. Other variables are interrelated among themselves, but they are also interrelated with t.he economie structure. In the problem structure given in the Master Plan this relations are clearly given.lt is nat possible to treat every relation given in this problem structure because there are toa many. The socio-economie structure within the Region have several characters. Some of this can be seen and some nat. The more visible characters of this structure is selected in the Master Plan, and those are: low income, unemployment and out migration. This three points are used as indicators for the socio-economie situation within the Region. lt was possible to mention many other indicators. This is nat done in the Master Plan, I think those three indicators are enough to teil how is the socio-economie situation within the Region. The Master Plan Study analytic treats the Regional problems. Firstly it determines the constraints that are fundamentaL Secondly the result of those constraints are determined (economie situation). The relation between this are assessed. After this an attempt can be made to search the solutions for the problems. At this point it is 51 evident to look the solutions in the more fundamental problems side. In the Master Plan the overall objectives are formulated on the basis of the socio-economie indicators, and the strategies are formulated on the basis of these more fundamental problems. 6.2.2 Development Objectives The Regional development objectives are meant to solve the basic outeernes of the immature economie structure. These basic outcomes, as mentioned before, are: low income, unemployment, and out-migration. Solving these outeernes are set as the objectives. The income levels must be increased, more employment must be created and the out-migration must be directed and assimilated. In this case the problems are formulated as objectives. By this the conneetion between the problem definition and objectives is streng. The objectives are nat looked some where else. In the development objectives it is also aimed toselect areashow to increase the low income. According the Master Plan this will be achieved by "improving the economie structure". When this is realized an ether objective will also be achieved, and that is "narrow the income disparity between the Region and ether regions". lt is nat clear which objective has the highest priority, narrowing the disparity or raising the income levels in the GAP region. But it can be stated that the first one is a natura! result of the second. When the income levels are increased the disparity between the GAP region and ether regions will be narrowed. This is only true when the income levels of the GAP regions increase relatively more than in ether regions. lt is nat clear what will happen w.r.t. the income levels in the ether regions. lt is possible that the disparity can grow more in spite of the GAP project. As can be seen trom the related chapter (chapter 4) there are several ether objectives. lt is nat clear what kind of a relation there is between the objectives. There are objectives that are formulated without a linkage to higher level. lt is nat clear why " to increase the productivity and employment in rural area" are set as an objective. The relations between the objectives and their links to the development problems should clearly be set. 6.2.3 Development Strategy Strategies are meant toselect the ways to attain the objectives. In this phase the objectives are further elaborated and areas are selected to interfere in order to achieve the objectives. As can be seen trom the development problems and de chosen strategies there is a streng relationship between these two levels. The strategies are formulated on the basis of the more fundamental development problems. This is done in order to attain the Region's development in long term. To evereome the fundamental problems two kind strategies have been chosen: agricultural and infrastructural. Nothing has been mentioned about the linkages between the objectives and strategies. Probably the strategies are meant to eliminate the negative effects of the fundamental development problems, and through this the objectives will be achieved. 52 6.3 Specified analysis As mentioned befare the objectives of the Project have several dimensions. The possible dimensions are listed in chapter 5. To analyze the aims these dimensions are used. From the objectives it is possible to distinguish the following dimensions: economie, social, and political. No aims have been formulated w.r.t environmental, legal, and technological dimensions. Firstly the aims w.r.t. a certain dimension have been formulated, and secondly each aim has detailed been considered. TheMaster Plan uses indicators (intended impacts) to set goals. These indicators wiJl be used in this study as intended impacts. To indicated the intended impacts an "I" has been located at the begining of the individual impacts. The not-intended impacts (desired or not) wiJl be identified and analyzed in chapter 7. 6.3.1 Economie aims The objectives are formulated in tour point. Most of the objectives formulated are concerned with economie situation of the GAP region. In this chapter the objectives concerned with the economie situation of the Region wiJl be treated. The objective parts concerning the economy of the Region are: * "to raise the income levels" * "improving the economie structure" * "narrow the income disparity between the Region and other regions" * "increase the productivity and employment opportunities" As mentioned befare the objectives arenotindependent of each other. When one consider this dependency, the first objective- to raise the income levels- is the final goal. Other objectives are factors that wiJl probably contributs to this final goal. In the Master Plan an indication has been given about the income at present and in the future. This indicator wiJl be used to review this objective. IE. 1 income level As mentioned in the chapter 3 the average income per capita within the Region is 47% of the average income per capita of Turkey. This ratio gives the situation of 1985. There is no data available about the ratio which gives the present income level. lf one consider the reports produced by officials nothing has been changed since. The same ratio is still in use as actual ratio. 1985 1992 2005 Turkey 1358,5 2622,3 ? GAP region 639 ? 1364* Table 6.1, The per capita GAP in US$, at current prices * at the prices of 1988 sources: GAP Master Plan, April 1993; Turkish economy, April1993 SIS 53 lf one considers that nothing has been changed since 1985 than the income per capita of the Region should be 1233 US$. In this case there are two possibilities: firstly the income per capita within the Region is grown as much as the average of Turkey and the ratio mentioned above is correct, secondly the ratio (47%), about the income level of the Region, is nat a good indicator any more. As stated befare it is nat possible todetermine the present income level of the Region. In spite of this an attempt based on the present general economie structure can be made to guess the position of the Region within Turkey. Since 1985 na important changes have been occurred w.r.t. the production ways within the Region. The agriculture is, as usual, still based on dryfarming, According the General Agricultural Census of 1991 the Region still uses the least fertilizer, and chemieals and pesticides. De same can be said about the industry. No important investments, except the GAP, have been made to imprave the industrial sector within the Region. From this one can conclude that the position of the Region is remained as it was and kept its natural grow. On the other hand there are three factors that may influence the position of the Region within the country. This are: the social instability caused by the terrorist organization PKK, the investments to realize the GAP, and the generaltrade embargo against lraq. The PKK is mostly active in theeast of the Region since the mid of eighties. In Diyarbakir, Mardin, Batman, Sirnak and Siirt this organization can negatively effect the economie live. Diyarbakir, ones a city with many prospects, is now a big village. The PKK has enough power to stop the hole economie life; it can make that the people shut their stores. In this side of the Region the socio economie relations can nat develop freely. As it is mentioned in chapter 6 the GAP is an important project which will bring the Region welfare. The project is still in implementation phase. At this stage the economical effect of the Project to the Region is nat too big. Till 1993 4,9 billion US$ (1993 prices) has been invested by the government. This public investment positively effects the economie life within the Region. This project provides the local people of employment (income) and many households got many due the nationalization of their land by the government. The tradebetween Turkey and lraq was very important tor the Region. The borders between the Region and lraq, and Syria are only the way to trade. Beside the railways the raad transports by truck are the most used way. The transportation through the Region to lraq and Syria causes many economie activities. After the embargo this trade is stopped. On account of this the economie activity related to the tradeisalso stopped, particular w.r.t. services for truck along the roads. The table below gives the tradebetween Turkey and two middle-east countries lraq and Kuwait. The table only gives the tormal trade. Beside this the informal trade is even important. During mine presence in Sanliurfa I have seen many tanks along the roads to transport oil. 54 1989 1990 1991 1992 IRAQ import 1650 1047 0 1 export 445 215 122 212 ------· ------KUWAIT import 81 54 0 68 export 167 92 16 66 (milhon US$) Table 6.2 Tradebetween Turkey and lraq, Kuwait, source: SIS, April 1993. From the consideration given above, one can conclude that the average income per capita is no langer 47% of the Turkey's average income per capita. On the one side the average income per capita of Turkey is increased more than admitted in the Master Plan and on the other side the average income per capita of the Region decreased. This means that the income disparity between the Region and the other regions became more during the years after 1985. Final conclusion is: the income level aimed to be realized in 2005 will probably not be achieved. lf one considers the delay of the GAP this conclusion will only be supported by it. Every country has different regions with different income levels. lt is not possible to eliminate those differences. This is why an objective which aims to eliminate the income disparity between the regions, like it is done in the fifth national development plan of Turkey, should not be realistic. The income disparity between the GAP region and the other regions are (mis)used to justify the actions against the central government. This kind of actions can destabilize the Region as now done by PKK. Under this context an objective to narrow the income disparity between the Region and other regions can easily be justified. The concrete meaning of this objective is treated in the first objective above. IE.2 Agriculture To realize the final goal -to raise the income levels- the economie structure within the Region must be improved as it is stated in the Master Plan. lmproving the economie structure has many aspects (agricultural, industrial, productivity, employment, etc.) and levels ( regional, urban, rural, village, organization, etc.). There is a complicated relation between the mentioned aspects and levels. lt is recognized that there are saveral limitations on the capacity of an developing country to do everything at once. In this sense to develop the Region a sector should be chosen to make a start to imprave the economie structure. Concerning the farmland and water potential, and suitable elimate of the Region it is evident to choose the agricultural sector to develop. The role of agriculture in the process of economie development has been neglected in early strategiesof economie development. lt is easy why agriculture was neglected and the industry was seen as a souree of economie growth. The historica! record shows that the role of agriculture always deelinas in relativa 55 importance in growing economies. Agriculture was thought to provide the only souree of productivity that could be tapped to fuel the drive for modernization (industrialization). In this point of view the agricultural sector is seen as a stepchild. In most of the developing countries this point of view has generally been expected. This is mainly caused by the fact that the developing countries confuses the modernization with industrialization. But the industrialization in the modernworld is preceded by agricultural development. Turkey is not an exception. During its development the industry and related sectors have got the most attention of the government. The public investments have mostly done in energy, transportand industry. Table below shows the pubtic investments after 1970. years agriculture industry energy transport ethers 1970 13,5 20 17,2 21,1 28,2 1980 7,9 26,3 21,3 20,8 23,7 1985 7,0 12,6 22,0 28 30,4 1990 9,7 5,6 21,8 32 30,9 Table 6.3 Public investment per sector source: Pakdemirli "Ekonomimimizin 1923'den-1990'a sayisal gorunumu" 1991 As can be seen farm the table the agriculture got the least pubtic investments. During the same years the private investments were also relative low. The low public investments percentage in industry after 1985 is compensated by the private investments. Beside this the energy sector is an subsector of the industry. From this figures and considerations one can conetude that the agricultural sector has in general been neglected. This can not be said about the Region's development. To imprave the Region's economie structure agricultural development has been set as the starting point by the Master Plan. According the Master Plan the vicieus circle will firstly be braken by the irrigation related projects. This will effect the input and output relations of agriculture as wellas industry. As mentioned befare the Region is self-sufficient. The increment in farm output will, processed or not, have to be exported to the ether regions. This is why the development of the Region is called "agro-related export based". Choosing the agricultural sector as basic tor the development of the Region have been a right decision to mine opinion. As stated befare the Region have enough recourse tor the agricultural development, and the Turkish government has not enough sourees to finance a industrial development within the Region. Through the GAP the Region's economie structure will change. I think this is evident. According the Master Plan the productivity of agriculture, and employment will then increase. The value-added of Iabour and net export to the ether regions will also increase. 56 IE.3 Employment An ether overall development objective is "to increase .. employment opportunities in rural area". This objective is also related to the improving of the economie structure. In order to attain the development targets Iabour requirements will have to be satisfied. Employment in 1985 was 1.53 million. Labour requirements in 2005 have been calculated to be 2.8 million. The additional required workers will be 1.27 million. This requirement is secteraL The additional required workers in the agriculture will be 354 thousand (Mater Plan, volume 2). The ratio of werking age popuiatien to the total popuiatien was 47% in the Region in 1985. This will increase as in-migration takes place. The Iabour participation ration was 70% in 1985. There are two factors affecting this ratio in the future. First, increasing number of wamen will participate in the Iabour force. Second, more people will receive higher education, staying away trom the Iabour force for a langer period of time. Assuming 50% werking age popuiatien and 70% Iabour participation ratio, the popuiatien projection implies the Iabour supply of 2. 73 million. Using the same methad as Master Plan the following figures can be calculated tor Sanliurfa-Harran Plains. The required Iabour will be 120 thousand in 2005. On the ether hand the popuiatien will be (trend growth of 2,99%) 142 thousand. The active popuiatien will bethen (50%) 71 000. According these calculations the required employee can not be met within the area. The employment in ether sectors are not included. lt is then evident that such development will great effects of migration, and prices per werker. This implies migration to the plains trom ether area's, probably trom the urban. IE.4 Productivity As mentioned in chapter 3 the productivity of the agriculture is relatively low, seen table 3.x. After the irrigation the Master Plan foresee remarkable increase of the agricultural production. The input and output relations in the agriculture will change, the agricultural sector become modern. lt will produce enough surplus to supply inputs to the industry. The capital formation will increase in the agriculture, and it will be mobilized to finance the industry. According amostresent study (1992) the foreseen increase will be tor almast every erop enormous. The table below shows the increase of some important crops camparing to the production in 1988. 57 main crops 2010/1988 wheat 2.05 barley 1.69 maize 174.97 catton 5.63 lentils 1.24 Table 6.4, lncrease of agricultural production in 2010 source: GAP Marketing and erop pattem study, 1992 The modern inputs will increase the yield per unit land. There will be no fallow, and erop rotatien will be possible. According the Master Plan there will be two kind of crops: primary crops, and secondary crops. Because of theerop rotatien theerop intensity will increase 134 per cent. In dry farming the production was per two years (fellow-production-fellow-production), and the irrigation farming will make production every year possible. The fertilizer, and machine use will increase. The will cause more yield per unit of land. Gonsidaring the yield per unit of land the target is, at least, the nationallevel of productivity. 6.3.2 Social aims lt is nat hard to see that development of the Region will have beside economie changes also social changes. ldentifying these changes, and if necessary directing them is important for a balanced growth. "Balanced growth" implies simultaneous efforts to promate agricultural and industrial development, but also growth in education, health services etc. (service sector). As mentioned before, the Region's present situation is characterized with traditional agriculture, no industry, low educationallevel, nat enough health services, out-migration, etc., etc.. In this context it is evident to formulate social objectives beside economie ones. In the Master Plan only one objective has been formulated which may have social aspects. Firstly this objective and its meaning for the Region will be treated. Because of its relation with the urbanization, the urbanization process will be treated. Finally the conclusion will be presented concerning this objective. IS. 1 Migration The objectives formulated intheMaster Plan w.r.t. the social situation of the Region is:"to enhance the assimilative capacity of larger cities in the Region" According the last (1990) popuiatien census the urbanization ratio of the Region is 5,23 % per annum, which is very high if it is compared with the urbanization ratio of ether developing countries (Africa:5%, Latin America: 3,56%, South Asia: 4,47% between 1980-1990)(Chenery 1988). In 1985 50 percent of the total popuiatien was living in the urban area's. In 1990 the percentage became 56,2 percent. The migration in the Region has three directions: a) trom rural areas to local cities 58 b) trom rural areas to other regions c) trom local cities toother regions From the objective formulated in theMater Plan w.r.t. the urbanization in the Region one can made up that first kind (a) migration is desired. Realization of this objective will also effect the out-migration to the other regions (band c). Enhancing the assimilative capacity of the larger cities in the Region implies that popuiatien growth is also desired. According the data given in table 3.5 about the Region the urbanization of the Region continues. The general popuiatien growth (3,9SO.k) and the urban growth (5,23)of the province eentres implies that out migration to the other regions is stopped. The rural popuiatien growth of the Region is 1,3% between 1985-1990. The rural growth is low because many households leave their village and move to the cities. lf one considers the urban growth ratio, it is possible to conclude that t~e rural migrants are, in genera!, assimilated by the larger cities in the Region. In spite of this social process, the cities in the Region are not prepared to assimilate so many migrants. The projects to enhance the assimilative capacity of the larger cities are still in planning phase. Almast every city in the Region have infrastructure problems. The service subsectors like health, and educational, are not developed enough tomeet the needs. In this situation it can be important to determine the torces that stimulate the urbanization. The urbanization is not a new phenomenon. Since the industrial revolution it is in debate. The urbanization of the developed counties occurred during their development in the 19th and 20th century. The same process is started in the developing countries after 1950s. The social scientist are uncertain about the definition and quantitative souree of the urbanization. In spite of this the urbanization occurring in the developing world has several characteristics: high rate of growth, uncontrolled settlements, not enough infrastructure, not enough services, slums, etc .. The two principal hypotheses advanced in the literature are that rapid city growth and urbanization can be explained primarily by (1) unusually rapid rates of popuiatien growth pressing on limited farm acreage, pushing landless Iabour into the cities; and (2) economie torces pulling migrants into the cities. Beside the economie torces the cities have several characters that motivate migrants to move into the cities. Those are relatively: better living conditions (infrastructure), better educational opportunities, better health opportunities. An ether factor that can also have an important contribution to the rapid city growth is the popuiatien growth within the city. In this case the rapid city growth is caused by migration and high fertility within the city. As stated befere 40 percent of the rural popuiatien have no land in the Region; they werk as farmworkers. On theether hand the popuiatien growth in the rural area's was more than 1% between 1985 and 1990 (SIS 1993). There were even rural area's where the popuiatien growth was 5,5% (in Harran Plains). An ether important aspect in the rural area's is that no changing have been occurred in the socio-economie (the agriculture is still traditional, the output is very lew) situation of 59 the villages. Almast every village still has no water during the summer. The circumstances remain as they are, but the population grow. In this situation it is evident that rural population are toreed to move into the cities. The Region has an specific problem which also farces the rural population to move into the cities. The government can nat guarantee the life of the rural people against the attacks of PKK. In this respect the cities are more safe. This is why most of the young adultsin the rural area move into the cities (Diyarbakir, Sanliurfa, Sirnak, Batman). The push farces are thus: high population growth, relative high percentage of landless farmers, traditional agriculture with low output, and unsafely in the rural area's. The population in the cities grow fast due its own social and cultural dynamics. This dynamic process can still nat be contrblled. There are no enough family planning projects. The projects that are implemented could nat achieve their goals. In the present social situation this is evident. The health services, the education level within the Region is much lower then the Turkey's average. Under this conditions it is evident that the fertility ( is still high ( the same can be said about the rural area's). Having more children is still functional in the Region. lt provides the family head prestige and power (economical and politica!). This implies no cultural changes (or less) have been occurred during the Region's development. As stated befare the traditional relations are still actual within the Region. The economie and social situation within the cities are better compared to the rural situation. The job opportunities ( and thus income) are much more in the cities. There are three important sectors that provide employment: the construction, . public, and informal sector. There is nat only more job opportunities but also a wage gap between the rural area and cities (rural income/ urban income=0,75% in Turkey). The cities provides also better living conditions; health services, education services, etc. These are the pull farces that make people to live the rural area's and move into the cities. To explain the urbanization in the Region a comparison has been made about the rural and urban area's. Such a comparison results is a positive judgement about the cities. But if the same cities are compared with the other cities in Turkey it is possible to conclude that the Region's cities are big villages. The cities have nat enough water, and infrastructure. lt is important to state that the urbanization has been occurred befare the industrialization and befare the implementation of the GAP. The Region is still governed by the agriculture, and agriculture can nat (traditional) produce enough output to make the Region's living conditions better as it is in other regions. In spite of this the Region is urbanized as in industrialized regions. From the consideration given above one can make up that the objective " enhance the assimilative capacity of larger cities in the Region" has no relevanee any more. The cities are already full with people. More people in the cities means giant urbanization problems and an empty rural area. Such a process will negatively effect the results of the GAP. lrrigation will need more workers in the rural areas. lf 60 the present urbanization process continues than a need will be created to start a de-urbanization process after the implementation of the GAP. This will postpone the aimed economie and social effects of the Project. This objective was mainly meant to stop the out-migration to the other regions. I think if one consider the city growths of the larger cities in the Region this is achieved. Thus the cities are assimilating the people. This is happened without any intervention of the government. The Region's socio-economie situation resulted in the mentioned urbanization. I think this was not the intention of the government because the objective implies improving the urban infrastructure, health services, education services, etc. Considering this point very little has been done in the cities. This mean the objective is already realized but the realization has nothing to do with the Project. I think the government should try to stop or at least slow down the urbanization process. To realize this the safety of the rural people must be guaranteed. Other wise the rural area's will be empty which may have disastrous effects on the economie structure after the irrigation. Considering the Sanliurfa-Harran Plains, there is no such a problem because PKK is not active in this area. The area is stable. 6.3.3 Political aims Because of the Project size the effect of it will not be limited to the Region only but it will probably effect the country and even the Middle-East. In the Master Plan nothing has been mentioned about the last point. But about the effect to the country one objective has been formulated. This objective -to contributs to the national objectives of sustained economie growth, export promotion, and social stability by efficient utilization of the Region's resources- aims to utilized the Region's resources in order to achieve the national objectives. This objective (social stability) implies politica! results that are aimed to be achieved. As stated befare the Region (10% of Turkey), lraq, and Syria is not stable. lP. 1 Stability There is a strong relation between the social stability and the economie growth. The social stability implies no contiiets between the social groups, conditions in which the groups and individuals can make decision without the intervention of others. The sustained economie growth implies an economie growth which is not influenced by (not to big) changing in physical (climate, topography, rainfall, dryness) and social (diseases, tension between social groups) conditions. lt is not easy to develop a region in which the people can not act freely and safely . The government should create suitable conditions in which the individuals could deploy psychological and social. In this conditions the individuals will be motivated to activate the economie and social structure that will result in a well developed country ( lbn-i Haldung). 61 To realize such conditions the government has many instruments; like legal, public expenditures, army, education, etc. The government can choose the most effective instrument to creàte the mentioned conditions. lt is important to state that the local social, ethnic, and cultural property should lay at the basis of the instruments definition. lt is also possible that the intervention of the government (state) could be the origin of the social instability. In this case there is a conflict between the local social groups and the government (state). The origin of the conflict can be cultural, ethnical, and economie. The social instability within the Region has different aspects and origins. The instability has a historica! background. In early years of the Republic of Turkey the governments were nationalistic, every ethnical (Kurdish language) and religieus (Sheik Said) demand was nat allowed. In this early years the governments politics were basedon assimilation of the ethnical (muslim) groups. This conflicts are still effective in the Region. Because of this instability, but also the Regions climatologic and topographic conditions, the Region could net develop. These (underdevelopment and assimilation polities) are one of the important arguments used by the PKK and its supporters. The objective -see above- foresee "efficient utilization of the Region's resources" and this will contribute to the national objectives. The Region's resources are: water and land (basic development strategy). Efficient utilization of the resources implies impravement of the agriculture and by this more surplus production. The surplus produced in the agriculture will be used to finance the development of industry and service sectors. After this, the Region's economy will become a welt developed economy. lt is also expected that economie impravement will contribute to the Region's social-stability, and by this the county's social stability will positively effected. Todetermine the Region's relative position within the Turkish economy the following indicatorscan be used: indicators GAP/Turkey agriculture 9,0% manufacturing 1,9% GRP(million US$ 1985) 4,0% cultivated land 11% irrigated land(after) 20% water (52,94 billion m-3) 28% Table 6.5, relative position of the Region source: GAP administation pubHeation 1993 From the table 6.5 it is possible to gather that agriculture of the Region has a significant position in Turkey. Efficient utilization of the Region's resources (land 62 and water) will increase the relative position of the agricultural sector of the Region. The contribution of the Region's manufacturing to the GNP is little, and it will probably remain its minor contribution in the following decades. Full efficient utilization of the resources will take more than 15 years (201 0). After this development the Region's industry will be able to develop itself. This is true if the Project has been implemented as it is planned. Full development of the Region's resources does automatically nat mean full development of the agriculture. Development of it requires additional conditions and politica! decisions. Beside the infrastructure to trade it is also important to have good relations with the countries (like lraq, Syria, Iran) to export the surplus produced in the agriculture. In order to contributs to the national objective -export promotion- the last point is (boarder open) very important. The mentioned countries have nat enough possibilities to produce eensurne goeds in their own countries. The distance between the Region and the countries are nat to far. In the opposite (present) situation the surplus will have to be consumed within the country (supply remainder) or have bo be exported to the countries in the west that are relatively to far. Politica! decisions to re-establish the relation between lraq, Syria, and Iran, and Turkey is still far away. Under present conditions the Project will nat contributs to the national objectives as it is possible. As stated befare there is a streng relation between the economie development and social stability. Since the conflict have historica!, ethnical and cultural background it is hard to say that impravement of the economie situation of the Region will create social stability within the Region. To reeover the stability the government should search tor historica!, and cultural correspondences between the government and local people. Considering this point I see an important place for the Islam and the Ottoman Empire. In spite of the last consideration the impravement of the Region's economie situation will have positive effect of the social stability. 6.4 Condusion As stated before, the Master Plan study has been executed during the implementation phase of the Project. The tormulation of it has nat changed the original (13) projects. The Plan is a very good document which provides many useful data about the Region, and its problems. lt can also be used as a starting point to develop ether projects, and to elaborate the Region's requirements. The plan provides detailed data about the Region's position which can be used to evaluated the GAPafterits implementation. lt is also a good document to understand the Project. Such a document should be used more frequently by the experts who are responsible to imptement the Project. During mine presence in the Region I have seen that the Plan was seldom used. Concerning the objectives it is not clear what are the final goals and what are the ways to achieve that goals. For example: "raising income levels" and " increasing the productivity" implies different levels. First one is the final point to achieve, and the secend will have contribution to this final point. In essence it is possible to set both point as objective but since the Project is a integrated project, the objectives 63 should be also integrated. The objectives should some up the final stages that are desired. The ways how to realize that stages should be the following step. An ether important point is that most of the objectives are economie. No objectives (basic) have been formulated about health, education, and environment. This tact overshadows the integral character of the Project. The overall objectives should also include objectives about health, education, and environment. The basic data given in the Master Plan describes the socio-economie situation of the Region till 1988. Since this year many changing has been occurred. As it can be seen trom the analysis, the starting points of the socio-economie indicators are not valid any more. These point were used to terecast the impacts of the Project. The income per capita has been decreased since 1988. This means the final goal (57% in 2005) will not be achieved. The out-migration (farm the Region) has already been stopped, and the eentres catch the migration trom the rural without an increase of the assimilative capacity of the centres. There is no social and politica! stability within the Region. Considering these, it is possible to conclude that the starting point of the irrigation is much more worse as it was in 1988. In spite of this conclusion, the objectives formulated in the Master Plan are still valid I think. Worsening the socio-economie situation has nothing to do with the Project. As mentioned before, this situation has politica!, ideological and ethnical reasons. Considering the "aims-tools-impacts" cycles, it is important to isolate the intended impacts that are directly related with the "tools" and ether intended impacts. These (directly related) impacts are: IE.2 Agriculture, and IE.4 Productivity. Other intended impact are the derived intended impacts. I think, if one considers the natural resources and the development problems, it is evident to appoint a agricultural development. lt is also evident to start this development with the ''tools" described in chapter 4. The aimed development is a make up process which has a shorter development duration and it is artificial. In this case, the "tools" are chosen very well. 64 Chapter 7 Analysis of the Impacts 7.1 Introduetion Introduetion of a new technology to a certain socio-economie condition causes changes. ldentification and analysis of the changes (effects) is important in order to adapt the technology going to be introduced, but it is also important to identify the undesired effects in early stages to meet required measures in order to increase ar to eliminate those effects. Atatukt DAM and HEPP is going to be introduced in a traditional society. What will happen when the project have been tuil developed? ldentification of the possible impacts and analysing of those is the objective of this chapter. For this purpose, the TA-technique set out in chapter 5 will be used. This chapter contains two parts: impact identification, and impact analysis and forecasting. In the first part the impacts are identified that are relevant for the project going to be analyzed. The structure of this part is as follows: firstly impacts of the project during the implementation will be identified,and secondly the impacts after the construction of the project will be . In first part the impacts are grouped in economie, social, and environmental impacts, and in the second part the impacts are grouped as the impacts of lake, irrigation water, and electric energy. Those are three outputs of the project when it is completed. lt was nat possible to consider every possible impact listed by Porter. Thus a selection has been made. This is done in order to avoid misjudgments. Gonsidaring some impact dimensions (environment) there is nat sufficient data available. No research has been done to this kind of effects. That is why different dimensions (nat consequent) have been used to analyze the impacts of different impactors. 7.2 Impact ldentification As mentioned in chapter 6 the identification of the impacts can be done in several ways: scanning, tracing ar a combination of them. In this study the tracing methad will be used. The relations of impacts among each other will be given by explanation. An other important point at this step is to distinguish the sequence order (first order, second etc.) of a impacts. Two periods have been distinguished to identify the impacts of the Project: implementation period, and period after the construction. In the first period the first order impacts will get the most attention. This is done because of week relations of the impacts in this period with the project aims. The aims of the Project refers to the impacts after the construction. The impacts caused in this period will be determined in three dimensions: economie, social, and environmental. Because of the mentioned -week aims-impacts relation- reason impacts in other dimensions will nat be considered. The period after the construction starts when the irrigation starts (electric energy 65 production has been started in 1992). The impacts in this period will be treated more detailed. In spite of this it was nat possible to dealwithall kind of impacts. Because of time, and available data the most attention will be given to the economie and social impacts. On the other hand environmental, technological are also considered. To analyze impacts in a curtain dimension, several indicators are used. Choosing the indicators depends on several factors: like relation of an indicator to the aims of the project, availability of data andjor information (qualitative or quantitative). Most of the indicators are evidenttoselect but it is nat possible to say the same for some of those. At this point mine own judgment was important factor. 7 .2.1 lmplementation perioei The implementation period starts in 1983 and ends when the DAM and HEPP are finished completely, the transition period between 1992 and 1994 has beenleftout of consideration. The irrigation will probably start at the end of 1994. The impacts in this period are considered according the following dimensions: economie, social, and environmental. To analyze the economie impacts three indicators are used: - investments casts (IMPE.1), - employment (IMPE.2), - nationalization (IMPE.3). This are the most direct activities that are necessary to construct the project. Considering the social impacts "migration" (IMPS.1) will be analyzed. Other social indicators are nat used because there is no other important social impacts in this period. To analyze environmental impacts no indicators will be used, because there is no sufficient data about this kind of impacts. Thus a general consideration will be given. 7 .2.2 After construction After the implementation of the Project an other period will start, in which the Project should bring prospects into the Region. The Project has several outputs. Same of this effect the context immediately, and some have to be transported to be used. These are considered nat as impacts but as outputs of the Project. These are: lake, water to irrigate, and electric energy produced in HEPP. In the following paragraphs the impacts of each output will be listed and analyzed. 7 .2.2.1 Lake The impacts that are caused by the lake of the DAM are grouped as follows: economie, social, and environmental. lt is impossible to identify every impact. Because of this a selection must be done. Concerning the economie impacts two indicators have been identified: - fishery (LE.1 ), - tourism (LE.2), Other impacts like transportation will nat be dealt because their importance are negligible. The lake will probably, for example, nat mobilized for transportation. Th is requires to much investments that can nat be afforded by the local people. Fishery, 66 as an impact, has been mentioned by the Master Plan, and its position could be important in the near future. Tourism (visitors) to the dam lake has already been started, and to mine apinion it is an important factor which will start social changes. As a social impact "life stile" (LS) will be analyzed. The natural context of the people who life in the settlements round the lake will probably change. This same people will meet people trom different worlds (tourists). In this context it is evident that their life stile will be toreed to change. Concerning the environmental impacts the following indicators will be analyst: *atmosphere (LEN.1) *processes (LEN.2) In the first impact the effect to the elimate will be analyzed. Because of the region's elimate characteristic the effect of the lake could be important. Concerning the second impact soil erosion, and flood will be dealt. Other impacts (faunae and flora) have been identified in the previous paragraph. 7 .2.2.2 Water to lrrigate Water provided by the DAM will be transported to the arabie land. The arabie land can be considered as a system which has inputs and outputs. The water to irrigate the arabie land is a new input to the agriculture. Because of this, many changes will occur in bath inputs and outputs of the agricultural system. Radical changes in the agriculture will effect the general economie structure. Ones the change in the economie structure has been started, changes will occur in the social life. The agricultural impacts of the project and their relation with the industry have been analyzed in the light of the following model. . In this model three area's are distinguished: inputs, arabie land, and outputs. OUTPUT Consumpti 1------t on IN DUSTRY A simple Agricultural input-output model and relation with industry 67 The model does nat give all the relations of course. This is nat the intention of it, but the model gives an idea about the basic factors that are parts of the agriculture. lt also gives the relation with the industry in a simple way, industry has, tor example, other kind input and outputs. Because of relevancy, they are nat mentioned in the model. The inputs of the agriculture contains of water, Iabour, and modern inputs as fertilizer machines, and agrochemicals. In this case the change starts with the provision of water. Because of this, the farm of agriculture changes trom dry farming to irrigated. After an transition period the quantity and quality of other inputs will also change. lt is nat clear how the mentioned transition period will develop and change into the irrigated farming in a certain area. This is an complicated process. Gonsidaring of this process would be beyond this study. Beside the inputs changed because of the irrigation, the arabie land also needs some treatments: drainage, levelling, and grouping. These are added in the model, nat as inputs or outputs, but as a part of the system. These treatments are required to maximize the profit and to minimize the damage of the irrigation. To determine the mentioned changes and to analyze the impacts of the project the tollowing structure has been set out: Economie impacts contains of two levels: (A)main indicators, and agricultural impacts. In the first level (main) the general indicators of the region will be used to analyze. The indicators used to analyze the (B)agricultural impacts contains of three groups: impacts at the input side, impacts at the output side, and other impacts. The agriculture is nat an independent sector. lt has relations with the industry. These relations with the industrial sector has nat been analyzed separately, but they are integrated to the analysis of the agricultural and main indicators. Most of the used indicators are also mentioned in the Master Plan. The identified impacts are given behove: Economie impacts A. Main indicators EM.1 general profits EM.2 income levels EM.3 employment EM.4 import-export B. Agricultural impacts input side: EA. 1 fertilizer EA.2 mechanization output side: EA.3 productivity EA.4 erop pattem 68 other impacts: EA.5 drainage EA.6 grouping EA. 7 livestock Environmental A. Physical environment B. Biologica! environment Technological T.1 material T.2 personal Social The social impacts are higher order impacts. Firstly the conditions inwhich the individuals life changes. The retormation of the conditions effects the social needs, desires, and expectation of the people. Not always but in certain extent, changing the needs, desires, and expectations implies changing the behaviour. New behaviour requires new relations and new rules. This may be the way, according which the impacts of a certain technology moves, and the society changes. On the other hand the social needs, desires, and expectations may cause changes in the technology. The last point falls out of this study. To assess the social impacts of a technology it is important to describe the society before the introduetion of the new technology (done in chapter 3). Gomparing the society befare and after will result into the social impacts of the technology introduced. To analyze the social impacts following indicators will be used: S.1 population S.2 living standards S.3 stability S.4 culture and structure 7 .2.2.3 Electric Energy The output electric energy had to be transmitted to the consumers. Beside the consumers within the Region the energy will also be consumed in the other region's. The impacts of this output will be analyzed in two area's: the impacts on the area round the project and impactstoother regions. lt is not possible to isolate the impacts of the electric energy produced by the Ataturk HEPP farm that produced (therm or hydra) in other regions. Because of a landly network the electric energy may be transmitted to very where. This is why, a general consideration will be given. The impacts of the electric energy will only be analyzed economics. Other impact dimensions will not be considered because there is no significant data to elaborated these impacts. 69 Economie impacts A. Region B. Country 7.3 Impact Analysis 7 .3.1 During the implementation A project commonly starts with a feasibility study. When it concludes that the project is feasible than the following step is to start with its implementation. During this activity the project can also have impacts to the context in which the project is going to be realized. lf the project is comprehensive, the impacts could be big and wide spread. The Ataturk DAM and HEPP is big enough to effect not only the DAM site but also the area's round it. Firstly the impacts that are caused during the implementation will be identified. Three dimensions are distinguished: economie, social, environmental and legal. Economie impacts In this dimension the investments casts, employment which is required to construct the DAM and HEPP, and the nationalization will be treated. These impacts are considered as to be the first order impacts. IMPE.1 lnvestment costs The investment casts of a project are considered to be a important evaluation indicator. lnvestments casts are the expenditures that must be made to realize the Project. The casts per item are given in the table 7.1. A detailed consideration of the casts should be beyond the limitsof this study. In spite of this it is important to state that the payments to EJVA have been occurred in Franks, (1 133 billion SFrank). 70 in million US$ Cost items adjudication Payed real cost A. Ataturk DAM and HEPP (99%) 1. Diversion tunnels 58,1 100,9 2. Construction of the body (AT A) 828,8 2014,7 3. Bectro-mechanic instanation and production (EJWA) 586,8 807,8 4. Consultancy (AEJV) 74,4 74,9 5. Engineering and Supervision (DSI) 173,5 225,6 6. Nationalization 220,3 167,0 Subtotal 1 1941,9 3387,9 4000 B. Sanliurfa Tunnels(93%) 1. first adjudication 376 137,7 2. second adjudication 333,9 519,3 Subtotal2 709.9 657 684 C. On farm irrigation systems 1. Sanliurfa plains (I (80%), IJ (50%), and 111 (0%)) 151 119,9 176 2. Harran plains (I (77%), ll(o%), JIJ (3%), IV (37%), V (3%), and VI 169 63,0 143 (0%)) 3. Mardin-Ceylanpinar - - 1414 4. Bozova irrigation - - 283 5. Siverek irrigation - - 949 Subtotal3 241 182,9 2965 Total (1 +2+3) 4227,8 7649 Table 7.1 lnvestments casts of the Lower Firat Project, in 1993 prices. between the brackets the status of the projects are given in percent. source: DSI, April 1993, and GAP publications The total casts of the GAP project will be according to the resent (1992) estimates 20 billion US$. Almast 40 present of it will be spend tor the Lower Firat Project. As it can be seen from the table 8.1 the already made expenditures for the Lower Firat Project is almast twice as they were planned. The big ditterences between the adjudication of a project and its real casts is common. This is why the real casts will probably be much more. The real casts of the GAP will probably be more than 36 billion US$ (GAP publications, 1993). The adjudications of the projects are, in this case, not a valid indicator to measure the casts of the projects. Same part of this miss-adjudication can be ascribed to the high intlation (62, 1%, 1992) in Turkey. lt is important to state that such giant investment casts can have influence on the economy of the country. Till 1987 the expenditures were provided by the national 71 treasure. Since 1988 the public participation fund become an important financing source. Other financing sourees are: sale of bands, and levies on various products and activities, such as alcohol and foreign traveL A camparisen can be made to see the relativa position of the investments: the required investment capita! for the Lower Firat Project is more than 54 percent of the total export value of Turkey, 1992. The investments required for the GAP is much more (129%) than the Gross Regional Product. This means there is a net capital transport to the Region within the implementation period. This implies a positif discriminatien of the Region, but if one consider the long period of underdevelopment of the Region befare the Project it is possible to call the Project a make up for this underdevelopment. As mentioned in chapter 4, the electro-mechanic part of the HEPP was adjudicated toa Swiss-British-Turkish joint-venture, and the consultancy was adjudicated to the AEJV, a Swiss-Turkish joint-venture. The payments tothese organization occur partly in Swissfrank. This implies foreign dependency. According the publications of DSI in 1991 the required foreign exchange had a share of 27 percent in the invest ments required for Ataturk DAM and HEPP. The required credits were provided by Eximbank-USA (111 million US$), Swiss banks (1 029 million SFr) and Swiss Credit Bank (50 million SFr). The share of the foreign exchange barrewed between 1983 and 1991 to finance the Ataturk DAM and HEPP is 2.7 percent of the total external debt made in the same period ( 30 billion US$). This means a relativa minor position tor the Ataturk DAM and HEPP concerning the foreign dependency created by it. IMPE.2 Employment Beside the investment casts the employment created by the Project during this period is also a good indication. Todetermine the created employment different sourees are used: reports of the Chamber of Commerce, and reports produced by the DSI. Because of the uncertainty of the figures given in several reports a bias is inevitable. During mine presence it was nat possible to collect data about the exact number of workers si nee 1983. In saveral reports it is stated that 10 thousand workers per year were employed by the Ataturk DAM and HEPP. This tigure is confirmed by the figures given in the report of the Chamber of the Commeres in Sanliurfa. According to the DSI reports produced between 1988 and 1991 there were employed more than 1000 people per year in this organization. The workers that were employed by the Ata lnsaat (inclusive the secend firms) were 7954 in 1988. To produce and to install the electro-mechanic part of the HEPP the employed workers were 424 (by EJWA). Most of the workers employed in Ataturk DAM and HEPP, and Tunnels were settled in Sanliurfa. The total workers trom Sanliurfa employed in this project we re 10137 in 1988. By this the project is an important employer in the province: more than 50% of the workers employed in organizations with 50 of more employee, were werking in this project. 72 IMPE.3 Nationalization After the construction of the DAM a big lake will be created. The total surface of the lake will be 817 square of kilometre. Many arabie land and settlements will remain under the water. Three provinces will be effected by the lake: Adiyaman, Sanliurfa, and Diyarbair. The land and the settlements belang to the privates. This is an important loss tor the people. To compensate this loss the government firstly nationalize the private goods that will be washed by the DAM lake. In this case the flooding of the land and settlements is a first order impact and the nationalization is a second order one. Concerning the Lower Firat Project beside the nationalization, because of the Ataturk DAM, arabie land must also be nationalized to construct the on-farm irrigation systems. This kind of nationalization will not be treated because there is no data available about it and because of its relative less importance (required land to construct the on-farm irrigation systems is almast 5% of the land that will be irrigated). The DAM lake will not arise ones. In january 1990 a part the Firat's water have been held. The lake begun to arise. The land and settlements that will be flooded will occur in time. The lake will arise till the altitude 542 meter from the see level. At this moment (April 15, 1993) the lake have been arisen till 520 meter. Befare it is so far, many settlements and arabie land are already under water. The settlements and arabie land that are going to be lost or already lost, are given below: Province Town Village Mezra Total Adiyaman 1 13 45 59 Sanliurfa - 20 39 59 Diyarbakir - 1 1 2 Total 1 34 85 120 The private land which must be nationalized 43 400 ha Public arabie land 6 863 ha Forest land 3 102 ha Meadows 27 035 ha Total 80 400 ha Parcel's number to be nationalized 25700 Table 7.2 Lost of arebie land and settlements source:DSI publications, april 1993 Of the totalland to be nationalized 43 percent belongs to the Adiyaman. And most of the remaining part belongs to the Sanliurfa. The total casts of the nationalization will be 220 million US$. 76 percent of these casts have already been payed to the owners. The value of a private land is commonly determined by experts. lf the owner does not agree with the value determined by the expert, he is allowed to go to the court to re-value his property. To handel these cases spacial courts have 73 been installed in deferent locals in Adiyaman and Sanliurfa. Till the end of 1991 more than 25 000 cases have been handled by these courts. This means, most of the owners did nat agreed with the value which was determined by the experts. Because of the re-valuation of the properties, the state (DSI) had to pay more than it is planned. For example: in 1992 the additional payment were: 35 million US$. In general, 40 per cent of the cases have been excepted, and the properties have bee re-valued. Because the nationalization the households have got an important souree of income. Beside this many people had to move. These impacts will be treated in the following paragraph (social impacts) more detailed. With regard to the aims formulated for the project and impact in question the following statement can be made: no aims have been formulated about this point. Thus the nationalization is a not-intended impact. The arabie land lost because of the DAM lake is 5, 7 percent of the land to be irrigated by the DAM. The courts to handle the re-valuation of the properties are the third order impact. Social impact IMPS.1 Migration As mentioned in the previous paragraph, because of the DAM lake many households have to be moved to ether places. According the 1980 population census 55 300 people must move, but according the resent publications the number of people whomust move is 110000. The number of families is 17 612. There werejis three choice possibilities: urban settlements, rural settlements, and credit settlements. For the first two choices places in Aydin and Konya were provided. Most of the families were moved to Sanliurfa and Adiyaman. A detailed study to the migration have nat been made in this case. To compensate the land and settlements lost because of the lake these families got financial support. The average campensatien per family is 12.5 thousand dollar. But if we consider the land distribution per family it is possible to conclude that most of the campensatien have been received by the families with relative more land. In this case 50 percent of the campensatien went to the 10 percent (own 50% of the land) of the families. Others (90%) have received the remaining part. The families who received relative more compensation have moved to the cities. With the many they got they could easily buy a house in the province centres. lt is not clear what happened to the families (30-40 %)who do nat own land. The migration is a second order impact which is nat mentioned in the aims of the tools. This is why it is a not-intended impact. The migration to the cities particularly Sanliurfa has caused many other impacts: construction, higher rents tor the houses, high growth rates of the city-centre, etc. The migration to the west of the country (Konya and Aydin) has probably caused beside the physical (construction, employment) impact also cultural impacts. A detailed consideration about this points can nat be given because no study about these have been made up to now. 74 Environmental impacts The lake behind the body of the DAM flooded not only the settlements and land but it also changes the physical context of the fauna and flora. The flooded land and its extend have been mentioned in the previous paragraph (nationalization). Concerning the fauna and flora befare the DAM have not been made. This is why it is impossibis to determine the effects of the DAM on animals and plants. The lake is big enough to destray thousands of animals and plants. During mine pressnee in the Region a proposal (in a conference) was made to study the flora and fauna in the places of the DAM's that will be constructed. 7 .3.2 After construction The construction of the Project has not been completed yet. The lake behind the DAM body arises enough to be draught to make a start with the irrigation in the Sanliurfa plains. This can not be done because the Tunnels and the on-farm irrigation systems are not completed. The start of irrigation has been postponed to 1994. The HEPP has already a start Oune 15, 1992) with the production of electric energy. Of the eight production units 4 are operational. The fifth unit was installed and ready to be operated. lt is impossibis to irrigate the whole planned area at ones. lt is planned to irrigate 150 000 hectare each year after the first year of irrigation. This is why the impacts of the irrigation will occur in time and per area. This implies a transition period. According to the Master Plan, this period will endure 15 years (2005). But if we consider the percent status of the GAP the period will probably endure more than 25 years (till 2018). This considers the whole Region.The transition period for the area, which will be irrigated by the Ataturk DAM, will be passed earlier. As mentioned befare (chap. 4) the Lower Firat Project is the favourite receiver of investments. According tothelast publications of DSI (may, 1993) the Sanliurfa and Harran plains will be completely irrigated after 1997. In this case, the concerned area is 135 368 (net) ha. The transition period for this area is only 3 years. In 1998 the start will be made to irrigate an other area of 185 639 ha in Ceylanpinar. Concerning the Lower Firat Project it has three outputs: the lake, energy, and irrigation water. From the consideration given above the first two outputs have already impacts. The most important impacts of these outputs have been determined in the paragraph impact identification. To analyze the impacts two important sourees are available: Master Plan and the feasibility study of the Project, and as an analogy the Cukurova case. Between 1937 and 1942 a DAM has been constructed at the Seyhan river. Aftera delay time of 18 years the irrigation could start in 1964. The last stage of the irrigation project has been completed in 1986. Concerning the impacts in this case, this area will be used as an analogy. 75 7 .3.2.1 Lake Economie impacts LE.1 Fishery In the GAP region, there are 2 235 km of rivers, 6481 ha of naturallakes and 37 751 ha of reservoirs. With the reservoir of the Ataturk Dam the Region's potential become 119 451 ha, an increase of 216 percent. The total production of freshwater fish was 805 tonsin 1980, 1 515 tonsin 1984, and 898 tonsin 1986 in the region. Gaziantep province contributed about 71% of the production and Adiyaman about 13%. The contribution of GAP production to the national freshwater production is very small accounting for about 2%. The per capita consumption in the GAP region is 0.21 kg. Gaziantep has the highest per capita consumption with 0.66 kg and Sanliurfa has the lewest with 0.04 kg. Beside fresh water fish consumption there arealso supply of marine fish to the Region. The marine fish is trom the Black Sea and it is supplied during the winter months. During the summer months there are na supplies because there are lack of cold starage facilities for fish. In spite of the lakes and reservoirs the fishery is nat developed within the Region. There is na aquaculture (except individual fishing) activities in the Region. Within the Region there are some hatcheries in Diyarbakir, Adiyaman, and Mardin. These hatcheries have been stocked several sorts of freshwater fish in the lakes and rivers. There is na data on the reservoir fishery activities except the limnological study and stocking programma by DSI. At the Karakaya dam reservoir which is there since 1988, there is na fishery activities. The Master Plan does explicitly nat aim a production level for the fishery, but it aims "to utilized the dam lake to promate inland fishery". Ta promate the fisheryin the dam lakesaproject has been started in 1993. This project includes a research centre for water products and settling place will beat the Ataturk DAM. From the consideration given above it is possible to state that constructing of lakes and reservoir does nat mean that production of freshwater fish will increase. The Ataturk DAM lake will create the possibility for fish production. Potentially (using the national average of fish production: 37 kgfhafyear) this lake can produce more than 3 million kg fish per year. This would bethen enough to increase the fish consumption per capita with more than 2. 7 times within the Reg ion. The consumption of fish would nat be limited to the winter months as it is now. Ta eensurne during the whole year cold starage facilities should be constructed. Considering the Project aims w.r.t. the fishery within the Region it can be stated that because of the lake the consumption of the fish will increase. This will meanly caused by individual ar small fishery activities. The small contribution of the fishery will keep its small place for a long time. This can be changed, but it requires many experts and investments that are nat sufficient in Turkey. 76 The fishery is a first order impact of the dam lake. As a secend order impact, the construction of cold starage can be mentioned. TheMaster Plan does nat mention a quantitative target w.r.t. the production of freshwater fish within the Region. Because of this it is nat possible to evaluate the aim (development of fishery). But if we consider the national figures and situation, it is possible to say: long time will be needed to develop the fishery as it is desired. LE.2 Tourism A lake in such sizes is a new phenomenon tor the Region. Such a lake will stimulate nat only the regional tourism but it will also attract taurist trom other region's. Attraction of taurist trom other regions, and even trom other countries has already been started. In 1991 more than 17 thousand taurist have been visited the DAM. At this moment the taurist visits the DAM organized. They come to the DAM in groups and the concerned expert provide then escort. The taurist trom other region's and countries have little importance at present, because of their relativa minority. Beside this the taurist do nat stay tor a long time in the Region. The visitors come and see the DAM and then they leave the Region. This is why their economie contribution to the Region is little. After some years (5-6) the share of the dam lake will become a attractive place to visit. In this case many people trom the close area will come and spend their time, especially during the weekends. The local and foreign tourists will make an important contribution to the economy of the Region, particularly of the towns round the lake. At present accommodation in the Region is inadequate. With the increase of taurist activities a streng need will be created to construct adequate accommodations, like inns, hotels and restaurants. Beside the economie activity, the taurist also bring about pollution. Thousand of people who will spend their time around the lake will eensurne and thus produce waste. This waste can be a souree of pollution of the lake. Gonsidaring the Project aims w.r.t the tourism it is possible to state that the number of dornestic tourists and visitors will increase. They will contributs to the economie activity within the Region but they also could pollute the lake and the area round it. The Master plan formulate no aims w.r.t. the pollution of the environment, this is why this impact could be considered as a un-indented impact. The attraction of the taurist and visitors is a first order impact, and the increase of economie activity and producing waste are secend order impacts. Social impact LS.Iife stile The tourists trom other region's and countries come to the area's round the lake with their way of live. As it has been happened in coast area's (lzmir, Antalya, and other coast provinces) the tourists will meet their the local people. Such a confrontation will nat only be physical Qut it will also be a meeting of different 77 worlds. lf this confrontation is not temporary, which is, then the dornestic life stile will be toreed to change. lt is, at this stage, impossible to isolate the impact of the taurist on the life stile; but trom the experiences in other area's it is possible to say that tor example the way of clothing will change: the traditional dress stile will be replaced by the modern clothing. Because of the lake the people around the lake have the opportunity to learn how to swim. The possibility to swim and the tourists that swim in the lake, will stimulate the local people to learn swimming. At the very beginning only men will swim, but meanwhile wamen will search the possibility to enjoy the swimming. They will swim tor example hidden. To mine apinion many years will be needed tor a joint swimming in the lake. Befare that, many social and cultural changes are required. As mentioned in chapter 4 the life stile of the people in the Region is traditional. Modernization of it will require many decades. Meanwhile many social problems will arise: conflict between young adults and their parents, men and wamen. Such problems are common in Turkey , a country of modernization. The transformation of the traditional life into a modern life has not been formulated by the Master Plan. Because of this, it is possible to consider these kind of impact as unintended impacts, but to mine apinion the informal aims of the Project is nothing but the modern-zation. These kind of impacts (life stile) will bedealt further. Environmental impacts LEN.1 Atmosphere As mentioned in chapter 3 the dampness within the area round the lake is very low. This is mainly caused by the relative low rainfall, and high temperature. The size of the lake (817 km-2) is big enough to effect the dampnessof the atmosphere. On the other hand, the region is under influence of Middle east desert elimate (extremely dry). Because of this two opposite factors the dampnessof the area round the lake wiJl increase but not to much as it is happened in Cukurova. This environmental impact will not only caused by the lake but also by the irrigation. The contribution of the lake to the possible atmospheral change is difficult to determine. Such a activity requires an ether specific study. Because of this, the temperature of the region will also change. The ditterences between daily, and seasonal temperatures will decrease. A combination of high temperature and relative high dampnesscan effect the daily life negatively. Owing to this the economicallife could also be effected negatively. During the day, particularly in the midday, the wor-kers could be hindered to werk because of extremely high temperature and high dampness. In the Master Plan possible environmental problems (a list) have been mentioned, but a detailed analysis have not been done. In spite of the list, the atmospherical impacts remain unintended impacts. 78 LEN.3 Processas Two points will be considered w.r.t. the processes: floods, and erosion. Other points (solution, sorption, deposition) have no relevancy to this impact. As mentioned in paragraph 3.3, the annual runoff of the river had been increased 186 percent in 1969. Such an increase can damage not only the arabie land and agricultural product but it also can cast human lives. In such periods with high rainfall, the lake will be a security to prevent the flood. The too many water caused by high rainfall will be kept in the lake, if it is to much the superfluous water will let tree trom the spillway of the dam. But since there are three dams (Keban, Karakaya and Ataturk) the possibility to a dangerous flood is almast impos-sible, because the dam which is situated at the higher attitude can serve as a security to dam at the lower attitude (Keban is the security of Karakaya and Karakaya is the security of Ataturk dam). Erosion is one of the most important problems of the agriculture in Turkey. The erosion caused by water (rain, flood) is the most common natural process. To prevent the erosion, forestry and trees in and round the arabie land have been proposed. lf there is not enough forest, the soil will be spoiled by the rainwater into the rivers, and the rivers will transport it into the sees. Concerning the Firat, the soil collected in the river has been transported to the Syria. Because of the lake, the soil collected from the area's round the Ataturk dam will not be transported to the Syria but it will remain in the lake. Because of this after 50 or 60 years the lake will be filled by the soil from the area's round it. The impact of the lake, concerning the erosion, is that the soil remains within the region. After the mentioned years the place of the lake can be mobilized for the agricultural activities. To prevent the soil erosion projects have been formulated totorest the area's round the dams, but implementation takes to much time. Bath impacts (preventing the flood, and soil spoil out of the country) are considered as to be not-indented impacts. Bath of the impacts can be seen as positive impacts. 7 .3.2.2 Water to lrrigate As mentioned befare the Ataturk dam will provide irrigation water to irrigate more than 7 hundred thousand hectare land. More than 50 percent of that will be irrigated with the water provided by the Sanliurfa Tunnels. lrrigation will start at the Sanliurfa-Harran Plains. The planned date to irrigate these plains is 1997. According to this plan 135368 ha (net) land will be irrigated. Second area to be irrigate is situated in Mardin-Ceylanpinar plains. The development of the irrigation schemes will continue step by step and after an unknown period the full-development will be realized. Considering this, there is an important complication: what is the effect of this period on the total result? lt is than impossible to determine the changes and their impacts in this transition period. This is why the transition period will be out of our consideration. The results of this study refers to the period atter the full development, and they are general (nota specified area). 79 An other important complication w.r.t the assessment of the impacts of the irrigation is caused by the socio-political situation of the Region. The development of the schemes do nat occur in a normal context: no PKK, and open borders to Syria and lraq. lt is very ditticuit todetermine the effects of these factors on the impacts of the Project in short and long run. Because of this firstly the impacts will be analyzed under normal conditions (as it is done in the Master Plan, this is required to make the camparisen possible) and if the effect of the mentioned factors are toa important to the results of a curtain indicator this will be mentioned. And in the final conclusions the effect of extraordinary situation discussed. Because of this, the power of the quantitative data decreases. Economie impacts A. Main Indicators EM. 1 General profits During the feasibility study of a project a cast-benefits study must be made. lf the benefits are sufficient than the study may conclude the project feasible. The feasibility study done tor the Ataturk DAM and HEPP (at that time a complete feasibility study have been executed tor the Lower Firat Project, and Ataturk DAM was called Karababa DAM) has done this toa. But because of the intlation the results had to be actualized every year. The casts of the project have been presented in the previous paragraph, and benefits of the project have been presented behove. Items '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 Energy 1 1,72 5,23 8,4 8.9 8.1 8,1 8,1 8,1 8,1 8,1 8,1 8,1 8,1 2 112 340 546 579 527 527 527 527 527 527 527 527 527 3 0.5 0.1 1,6 2,2 2,7 3,2 3,7 4,3 4,8 5,3 5,8 6,4 lrrigation 4 43 78 124 146 216 216 216 550 550 697 857 5 34 61 98 115 162 162 162 424 424 560 6 95 159 274 436 598 760 1,2 1,6 2,2 Totall 7 112 340 546 613 640 625 642 689 689 689 951 951 1,1 8 442 998 1,6 2,3 2,9 3,5 4,2 5,0 5,6 6,5 7,5 8,6 9 112 452 958 1,6 2,2 2,8 3,5 4,1 4,9 5,5 6,5 7,4 8,5 1:energy production in billion kWh, 2:1ncome trom the electric energy in million U!)$, 3:cummulation of 2 m bdlion JS$, 4:area that will be irrigated in thousands of hectare, 5: created value-added by the irrigation in million US$, 5: cummulation of 5 in million US$ On billion US$ trom 2002), 7:1 +4 in million US$ On billion US$ after 2004), 8:cummulation of 7 in million US$ (in billion US$ after 1995), 9: 8 minus the costs of the epperation in million US$ Qn billion US$ after 1995). Table 7.3 benefits of the Atarukt DAM and HEPP source:GAP administration, april 1993, and several DSI reports 80 To evaluate the casts and benefits of a project, the break even point is used. The Ataturk DAM and HEPP, the Sanliurfa Tunnels and the on-farm irrigation schemes to irrigate the aimed ares, will earn the investments casts in 2003-2004. In the same years the full-development will probably achieved. This means, befare the full development the project earn the investments back. Th is is why, that the feasible report probable declared the project feasible. EM.2 lncome levels As mentioned (chapter 3 and 6) the average income per capita in the Region is lower than 47 per cent of the average income per capita in Turkey. This tigure is too general and it does not give the reel income situation of the Region. The income ditterences between the rural area and urban area is much more extreme. In the rural area there is a strong relationship between the land distribution per household and the income per household. lf we use the land distribution in the Region and general (GRP, urbanization, etc) figures about the income, it is possible to calculate the income distribution in the rural area's. According mine calculations the average income per capita among the landless (38%) farmers is only 13 per cent of the average income of the country . On the other hand the average income per capita among the landlords(8%) is 210 per cent of the average income of the country. There is no project formulated to level the land distribution (land reform) in the Region. This means the land per farmer will remain as it is befare the irrigation. Particularly in the rural area's, the land size per farmer will determine the income distri bution and thus the income levels. From the experiences in other places,. it is possible to state that an un-symmetric land distribution makes the income distribution worse after the irrigation. This implies the income of the great landlords will get relative more trom the surplus produced after the irrigation in the rural area. On the other hand the landless farmers and small landowners will get relative minor portion trom the same surplus. In spite of this, the in-come of the rural farmers will increase camparing their income levels befare the irrigation. Such a process has been occurred in Cukurova and Antakya: every farmer had profited trom the irrigation. According the Master Plan projections, if the development of the Project go as it is planned, the income disparity between the Region and Turkey will decrease and the average income per capita of the Region will become 56 per cent of the Turkey's average: the disparity decreases 19%. TheMaster Plan aims an annual growth of 3. 7 per cent (sce-nario C, slower development) for the per capita income in the Region. Realization of such a growth, even slower growth rates, is very ditticuit under present conditions. There are too many factors (dealt in the following paragraphs) that determine the development processof the income levels in generaL The Master Plan estimates the net income per farmer after the project, the table below shows that. The general income levels will imprave at individual farm levels as aresult of introduetion of irrigated and more intensive farming. According a recent study (Marketing and Crop pattem study, august 1992) the welfare of the consumers as well as the producers of the agricultural products will increase three 81 times the present level. Farm size Without project( 1985) with project(2005) 2 ha 174 421 5 ha 259 646 10 ha 436 868 25 ha 439 848 60 ha 358 856 Unit value-added 476 940 Table 7.4 Net income per ha and unit value-added, unit: US$/ha source: Master Plan volume 3, SPO 1989 Since thousand of years nothing has been change economically. When the irrigation starts the income levels will increase relatively more. In this case it is evident to ascribe the increase of the income per capita to the project. The income increase will be achieved by many factors in agriculture, industry, and services. But every new transformation in these sectors are caused by the project. lt only starts with irrigation and the it effects other sectors (following paragraphs). Finally it must be said that the income levels of the farmers will increase (more than double) but it requires suitable conditions to develop as it is aimed and further. EM.3 Eroptoyment In order to attain the development targets, specified by the recommended socio economie framework, the Iabour requirement will have to be satisfied. Labour requirements in 2005 have been calculated to be 2.8 miJlion trom the projected value-added and assumed em-ployment coefficient by sector incorporating increase in Iabour productivity. According to the same calculation method, 441 thousand (scenario C) workers will be additionally required in that year. This additionallabour requirement is one of the most important impacts of the Project. The calculation given above considers the total Region and the GAP project. The irrigation will start in Sanliurfa province. The total population in the province may increase at 4.62% per annum following the trend. In 2005 the population will become 1. 7 4 million. Following the trend 65% of the pop u lation will be settled in the urban. According to mine own calculations there will be 26 thousand people who should be employed in Sanliurfa-Harran plains. lf we consider the unit value-added in the plains in question and the creation of the employment caused by this value-added, it is possible to calculate the created Iabour in the plains. According to this, the created additional Iabour in the agriculture will be more than 18 thousand. This implies full-employment. This is common since the population is not too crowded in the rural area's. Because of 82 this requirements the seasonal workers who move to Cukurova to be employed will stay where they are, and the agricultural will provide them of work. On the other hand the migration to the urban will also decrease since the opportunity for employment increases in the rural area's. EMA Import-export As mentioned befare the Region is selfsufficient in basic foods. On the other hand insome agricultural products (lentils, sesame, and pistachios) the Region has a relativa big share in the national product of the same agricultural products. According a resent study {Marketing and erop pattem study) the region will became self-sufficient in more crops, and the Region willexport toother region's. The products that will be probably exported are:maize, barley, chickpeas, lentils, cotton, soyabeans, and some vegetables. The agriculture will have to import agricultural inputs, like fertilizer and machine. This implies an increase of the trade activities. In spite of the high popuiatien growth a surplus will be produced if developments occur as they are planned. This surplus produced in the irrigated area will have to be exported. Tomeet this requirements markets have to be searched. Toother region's of the country only some crops will be exported, but what will happen with other crops? There are three possibilities: exporting to the western countries via lskenderun, exporting to the Middle eastern countries, and finally no production which is undesired. Exporting to the west is relativa expensive {distance) and the western counties require higher qualities. The most evident market is, in this case, the Middle east countries. The distance is short, the counties are consumption societies. But there is little trade activities with Middle east countries. This has politica! reasons. For the sake of the Region's people the government should consider its policy to stimulate the trade and meet the required measurements. Other wise the expected prospects may stay out. B. Agricultural indicators The combination of the mentioned inputs and the arabie land results into the agricultural product {yield). The yield (output) has two very important characters in this case: relativa more productivity, and an other erop pattern. The system is not independent: it has relation with human and state organizations, but also with the industry. The industry uses some part of the agriculuture's output as input. lt process the input provided by agriculture. On the other hand the industry provides inputs to the agriculture: fertilizer and machines. In the following paragraphs each part of the model will be treated in detail. EA 1 Fertilizer The fertilizer is known in the region. According to the General Agricultural Census 1991 92 per cent of the settlements use fertilizer in the Region. The sameratio is 95 in Sanliurfa. The ratio of settlements using fertilizer in the Region is practically the same as it is in Turkey. This means the mobilization of fertilizer is well known. The 83 problem is relative less mobilization of fertilizer per unit of land in the Region. The fertilizer use per unit of land (ha) in Turkey is 490 kg/ha, and in the Region it is 195 kg/ha. The same ratio is 165 kg/ha in Sanliurfa. The dry farming requires relative less fertilizer. This has financial as wellas technica! reasons. When the irrigation starts the use of fertilizer per unit of land will increase. The Master Plan estimates the required fertilizer after the irrigation to be 772 kg/ha. When the irrigation projects are full-developed and the irrigation has been started the additional required fertilizer will be then 1.8 million tons. This confarms to the 20 percent of the fertilizer used in Turkey in 1991. According the same ratio, the additional required fertilizer will be 82 thousand tons in Sanliurfa-Harran plains. Even when we consider the fertilizer mobilization nat much as it is estimated by the Master Plan, but we use the average tigure of Turkey, even then the additional required fertilizer is enormous: 2.5 times more than befare the irrigation. This is the required fertilizer after irrigation, but it is nat clear trom where it wiJl come. The Region has no industry which produces fertilizer. This means it must be imported to the Region. This will then stimulate industrial activities in other regions. lt is important to state that development of the irrigation schemes requires many years, and by this, a certain area (150000 ha) will be added to the irrigated area every year. Because of this, the demand tor the fertilizer will develop nat at ones, but step by step. Meanwhile the industry producing fertilizer can also develop step by step. lt is evident to conclude that required fertilizer will increase, and it is also evident that related industries are required in the Region, and particularly in Sanliurfa. . EA2 Mechanization As it is stated in paragraph 3.4 the agriculture is comparatively less equipped with the machinery (tractor, combine harvest, cultivator, etc.) and other implements. The status of the mechanization in the Region can be seen in table 3.8. The low level of mechanization comes trom the fact that dryland agriculture system prevailing in the region does nat require as high mechanization as irrigated agriculture. Other reasans are fragmented land owner-ship and land tenure systems. The most important reason (dryfarming) will be replaced by irrigation, and the grouping project will annulate the fragmented land ownership. Under the new circumstances it is evident to state that the mechanization wiJl increase. The required tractor wiJl increase from 8.3 tractor to 26.6 tractor per 1000 ha cultivated area. In this case the number of tractor will be 82 thousand in the Region and in Sanliurfa-Harran Plains it will be 3591. The additional required tractor will be 2862 in the same area. The same calculation can be made for other machines but such a calculation does nat give additional information. The machines that will be used as inputs for agriculture are outputs of the industry. In Sanliurfa there is big agricultural machinery and implement manufacturing plant. 84 At present the plant operatas below capacity. lts capacity is allowed to produce 2000 different mach-nery and implements. Very soon after the irrigation the plant can increase its activities to provide the required machinery in the irrigated area's. Finally the conclusion w.r.t. the mechanization is: the utilization of the different machinery will increase. To provide this the industry within the Region will be activated. Beside this ether machinery, which is locally nat produced, can be imported trom ether region EA3 Productivity The agricultural activities ends with the yield (product). Gonsidaring this point there is no change. The impact of the irrigation will be the changing of the contents and structure of the agricultural product . As it is mentioned before, the productivity of the agriculture per unit land is comparatively toa low. The productivity of basic crops per unit of land, befare and after the irrigation, has been presented in the table given behove. main crops befare aft er Wheat 1580 6025 Barley 1880 6845 Lentils 1130 5477 Catton 1890 1985 Tomato 2752 18258 Potato 13694 Table 7.5, yield per unit land (kg/ha) befare and after the irrigation source: Master Plan, and GAP pubHeation June 1992, Ankara As it can be seen trom the table above, the increase of the yield is enormous. The irrigation will nat only effect the yield, but it make also the erop rotations possible. Befare the irrigation the production was ones per year, and there was fallow (31% of the cultivated area). After the irrigation it will be possible to produce twice per year, and there will be no fallow. This means a erop production of tour times more as it was befare the irrigation. The process is nat finished, the produced yield must be collected, transported, stored, and consumed andjor processed. Gonsidaring the first point many labours are required. To collect the yield there is two ways: capital intensive, and Iabour intensive. Gonsidaring the Iabour force, available agricultural machines, and casts of Iabour and machines, it is evident to state that this activity will be done Iabour intensively, as it is happened in Cukurova. After colleetien the yield must be transported, and tor this activity, roads and transport means are required. To construct the required on-farm roads and the roads between the cities a project 85 has been planned. Within the region there is nat enough storehouses to store the yield. New starage places will be then constructed. After these activities the product are ready to be consumed or processed in the lndustry. Consumption of the product requires trade activities. That is why, as an higher order impact, the region's trade will be effected, and the activities to provide the local need as well as to export will increase. As stated befare the agricultural product can also be used as input for industry. This is necessary since the region is selfsufficient in basic agricultural foods. The created surplus must be exported. The exportation of the surplus can be done in raw materials but it can also be processed locally, and then exported. Inthelast case the prospective manufacturing industries are listed by the Master Plan. These are: - Wheat-related industry: wheat flour, macaroni, instant noodles - Cotton-related industry: ginning, catton yam, fabrics and wool, apparel - Edible oils industry: raw and refined edible oils, animal feed - Others: printing and publishing, packing materials, packaging The conclusion w.r.t the productivity: the productivity will increase. And because of this other sectors (industry and trade) will stimulated. Through this process the region will become a developed region. lt is nat the intention of this study to treat the industrial impacts in detail. This would be beyend this study. The mentioned prospects can only be realized when the projects develop as they are planned, and socio-political stability is guaranteed. EA4 erop Pattem As mentioned in the previous paragraph the structure of the erop wilt be changed. This is a result of the irrigation. The new erop pattem is an important factor which effects the total agricultural production and throughout this the related points, and it will also effect the required water to irrigate the crops. That is why the erop pattarn after the irrigation has been a point of discussion between the related organizations. lt is impossible to present every predicted pattem. Three of them are presented behove. They predict the erop pattem tor Sanliurfa-Harran Plains. 86 Crops DSI MP TURGAP ------Wheat 32 25 41.5 Barley 10 8.5 Maize 5 55.2 Potato 2 28.3 Catton 35 20 Lentils 5 7.5 Sesame 5 Feed grains 10 Chickpaas Rice 6 Dry beans 3 Soybean 10 Oilseeds 6 Fruit 2 13.3 Vegetabla 3 1.4 Others 41 39 Total 125 134 155.7 Table 7.6, erop pattem after irrigation; source: DSI pattem trom Feasibility study, 1977 MP pattem trom Master Plan TURGAP, pattem of the Marketingstudyin 1992 As it can be seen trom the table 7 .6, the predicted erop pattems are different. On the ether hand there are experts who does not agree with these predictions. From the experiences in Cukurova, and ether irrigated area's they predict a deferent pattem. The erop pattem in Cukurova started with 97.4 per cent eetton after irrigation (1966), and after 20 years the portion of eetton has been decreased and became 41.3 per cent in 1986 in the erop pattem. Even within the Region the portion of the eetton in the erop pattem is round 80 percent in the area's irrigated. Such big portion tor eetton is mainly caused by the profits made by the farmers. Farming is an undertaking that involves many decisions. What crops to plant, what inputs to use, when to plough, to seed, to cultivate, to irrigate, to harvest, how much to keep tor home consumption, how much to sell and how much to store tor later sale are the farming decisions that occupy the daily routine of the most agricultural producers. What is unique about agriculture is that literally millions of individuals and households are making these decisions themselves. Gonsidaring this, the predietien of different erop pattems by the mentioned organizations and experts is not astonished. Uncertainty about theerop pattem opens the way to many uncertainties, like insufficiency of water, of required industry and Iabour. The erop pattems predicted by the organizations are determined after an 87 investigation about the marketing, particularly the pattem of TURGAP. This model stimulates the regional requirements, the requirements of the country, and the world trade. Finally the model produces the most possible pattem for the area's going to be irrigated. This model does nat enclose the farmers behaviour. Theerop pattem will be completed by the individual decisions of the farmers. Todetermine the possible erop pattem a research should be made to the predictions of the farmers w.r.t their crops after the irrigation. Such a research has nat been done. To mine apinion the expert are probably right by saying the erop pattem will defer trom prediction done by the related organizations. The portion of the catton will be much more (70%-80%). And such a erop pattem requires much more irrigation water since the catton requires relative more water. As an impact of the irrigation it is certain that the erop pattem will change, but how it will be is nat known. The effect of this uncertainty will be widespreaded. An other erop pattem than it is predicted in the official reports, can open a door to destray most of the benefits of the irrigation. EA.5 Drainage The irrigation water contains many minerals. One of them is the salt. After the irrigation of a land piece some amount of the water damps, some is used by the plants to grow, and nat used amount disappears into the ground. Because of the irrigation, the level of the ground water may rise. This can damage the earth. The earth could be salted, and by this the land is nat useful any more tor the agriculture. Salting is a general problem in Turkey, included the Region. To prevent the salting drainage are required.The unused water must be collected in the drainage systems, and transported away farm the arabie land. The water collected in the drainage can be recycled after it is pureed. But this is an expensive mean. lt can also be transported to be damped. lrrigation and drainage are closely related. That is why the plains that is going to be irrigated (Sanliurfa-Harran plains) must be provided of the drainage. In spite of this the plains are still nat drainaged enough. The consequences of this can be widespread and disastrous. The predict such effects there are two researches at present. According to these researches the Sanliurfa-Harran plains will be salted within 5.5 or 10 years without drainage (Harran university notes, 7 april, 1993). To prevent the salting of the plains many proposals have been made: don't start with irrigation as long as the plains are nat drai-naged. Education of the farmers, management of the irrigation systems (MOM) are most of the important proposals. Considering the Region it is nat clear what will happen with the water collected in the drainage. Drainage will prevent the salting, but if there is nat enough drainage , and if the maintenance of it is nat sufficient, what will exactly happen then? One of the consequences is decreasing of the yield aftersome years (5-6). After this period, the earth can be salted. At this point it is important to state that these consequences arealso the impacts of the irrigation: losing the arabie land. The experts within the Region war, and they predicate possible solutions. They are nat 88 sure about the consequence of the irriga-tion. Dr Ali Ozdermir stated: " the area will be irrigated, but what will then happen nobody knows". EA6 Grouping As mentioned before, the land per farmer is fragmented. Fragmantion effects the agricultural method. To prevent the negative effect of the fragmantioned, a project has been started to group the fragmented land. This activity can be seen as an activity to maximize the profit of the irrigation. There is no causal relation between the irrigation and grouping. On the other hand if there was no irrigation, such a project would nat be started. In this casethereis asolid relation between the irrigation and grouping. The effect of grouping will be relativa more modernization. Quantification of this effect has nat been done, because no study has been made to determine this. EA 7 Livestock The livestock population in the GAP region is provided in table 3. 7 by kind of animal and by province. The livestock is dominated by sheep and goats and this reflects the nomadie type of stock raising prevailing in the Region due to its socio cultural background and elirnatic conditions. On the other hand the livestock is an additional souree of income. According to the Master Plan the livestock will increase ( Master Plan table A.48) after the irrigation. Directly livestock has nothing to do with the irrigation. The irrigation will increase the income per farmer. Because of the irrigation, the life prospects of the farmers will be improved. The dependenee trom the additional income trom the livestock wiJl decrease. On the other hand the nomadie type of stock requires de-settlements, rnaving trom one place to an other. Economie prospects will modernize the social live. Because of those reasons, mine expectation is: the livestock in the Region will decrease after the irrigation. Such an development has already been occurred in the area round the Hancagiz dam in Gaziantep, after the irrigation. The farmers have concentrated on the agricultural production. After some period, the area had to import meat and milk trom outside the area (mine observation in the area). The relation between the irrigation and decreasing the livestock is complicated and nat directly. In spite of this it is possible to state that decrease of the livestock is an impact of the irrigation. Gonsidaring this point it is an unintended, "negative" impact. Unintended because the Project documents foresee an increase and it is a negative impact because the Region Jasses one of its income source. Gonsidaring the last point the Region could develop its modern, intensive, livestock after some decades. But this is to far to consider. An quantitative indication is difficult to present about the development of the livestock, because the related organizations expect an increase of the livestock. No researches have been done to the livestock in the already irrigated area's within the Region. 89 Environmental impacts lt has been widely recognized that high economie growth in any region, especially in short time, cannot be realized without having effects on the environment. In the Master Plan the possible environmental impacts have been listed and some recommendations have been made tor further research. The Plan proposes to take the environmental impacts as an integral part of the GAP regional development. During mine presence in the Region, an investigation project was active to the quality of the drinkwater in the Region. Further there is na tormal project going to be activated to research the environmental impacts of the individual irrigation projects. That is why, a general consideration will be given in this study about the environmental impacts of the irrigation. lt is impossible to treat every indicator given by Porter in detail. This is the reason why some basic indicators will be used to assess the environmental impacts. A. Physical environment After the irrigation, the farming methad of the local farmers will change, and this means a new human-land-plant relation. As mentioned befare firstly the erop pattem will be modi-fided, and because of this the area will meet with new kind of plants. This modification requires new irrigation technic, fertilization, and landprocessing. The farmers should learn how to use these technics. This is nat always possible. Gonsidaring the education level of the rural people, the adaptation and acceptation of the new technic will prob-ably take more time by the local farmers than it is required in other regions. This implies wrong use of new technic by the farmers. Because of this the structure of land changes very soon and as result the yield per unit of land decreases, as happened in irrigated area in Harran Plains. Without sufficient drainage system and irrigation more than required can result in salting of the land. Th is problem is cammen in Turkey. Because of the structure of the land of the Sanliurfa-Harrran plains and this, combined with the structure (many fold downwards, and less slope) of the plains (Sanliurfa-Harran, and Suruc plains) the possibility to be salted is relatively more. Physical character and wrong mobilization of the irrigation and farming technic will make the salting problem widespreaded. This is the reason why many experts and scientist warn the official organizations to meet the required measurements. Other important environmental impacts are the pollution of the arabie land and using the farm land tor an ether purpose. Arbitrary use of the fertilizer may the graatest souree of the pollution of the arabie land. On the other hand the waste produced in the urban and rural area's may also pollute the land. At the beginning, the pollution of the arabie land will have little priority. After some decades, as it is gene in western countries, the pollution will get the attention it is desired , and the officials will search to the solutions. I think this is common, since the economie impravement of the live has the highest priority. Using the arabie land tor other purposes than agriculture is also cammen in Turkey. The households choose the best places to built their houses. This problem can easily be seen in Sanliurfa. The 90 city grows into the plains, to the south. Pollution because of the fertilizer may be indicated as secend order impact of the irrigation but pollution by the waste, and using of arabie land tor other purposes is an impact which has an indirectly relation with the irrigation. The uncontrolled urbanization of the Region is the mainly cause of them. B. Biologica! conditions Since thousand of years, the ecologie and climatologic conditions developed its adopted fauna and flora. Because of the irrigation, some fundamental changes are going to be occurred. At the ene side, there is an man-made change of the flora. Thousands of hectare land will used tor other kind of plants than befere the irrigation. Beside this the economie activities within the Region will force the flora of the Region. Because of such activities the flora has been damaged in the Toros mountains. Within the area going to be irrigated new kind of flora could be arisen. This kind of plants may damage the agricultural crops. To struggle against this foreign plants new research, and technic are required. In Cukurova 50% of the agrochemieals are used against this kind of foreign plants. The Sanliurfa-Harran plains do nothave trees. To prevent the wind erosion, thousands of trees should be planted. Because of irrigation this is possible. In this case, firstly the plains will be provided of trees and secondly the need for fire wood will be produced locally. Such an activity requires organizations that provide trees and education. At present such a potential is at planning phase. Changes in the flora, dampnessof the air, and wetnessof the land will effect the fauna of the area being irrigated. The expert of the Harran Univarsity expects new kind of insects, that can cause new kind of diseases. About this kind of impacts no research have been made. Univarsity of Cukurova has made an proposal to start such researches to prevent the experiences made in the Cukurova Plains. Technological impacts Because of the Project the technological capacity of the Region increases. The technology can be grouped on the basis of several classification criteria. One of then groups the technologyin persons (skilled Iabour, managementand information) material (money and machine-capita!) and products & processas (procedures, patents etc.) In every respect of the technology, the Region has going to built a technological capacity, and this implies less dependenee of natura! conditions. T. 1 Material Considering the DAM and HEPP, the Region is providedof a "material" which was never there. The DAM has been constructed by the Turkish engineers, and because of this the engineers have been built an experience which can be used to build ether dams. The HEPP contains of, for Turkey, the most sophisticated and 91 advanced technology. The turbines and generators (8 units) to generate the electric energy contribute to the techno- logy capacity. The technology required to transport, and distribute the electric energy is landly important, this technology contribute not only to the Region's technology capacity but also to the capacity of the whole country. On the other hand the Sanliurfa Tunnels arealso an important contribution to the capacity building. These two parallel tunnels are the longest in its sorts. Such giant projects are important if we consider the development potential of rives and plains to be irrigated. Ones done can be repeated. Such and capacity building of the technology implies less technological dependenee of the foreign countries. Constructing the on-farm irrigation systems is widely known in Turkey. The state organization of Hydraulic works (DSI) has constructed many irrigation system up to now. At present 1.3 million hectare land has been provided of water by this organization. The maintenance, and oparation of these systems have been done by the same organization. lf the Sanliurfa-Harran plains are irrigated the irrigated area operated by DSI will be expanded with more than 10 percent. Up to now we had have about the technology "material" built directly to irrigate and to produce energy. Constructing the technological "material" is not enough of course. To keep them opera-tional infrastructure is needed. The possible industrial activities required to provide the mentioned technology of the needed infrastructure are listed in the Master Plan. T.2 Persons The technological"material" needs to be implemented and to be operated. To implement as well as to operate persons are required. As mentioned befare to construct the DAM and HEPP, tunnels, and on-farm irrigation systems thousands of persons have been employed. When the construction of the "materials" have been completed, most of the employed people willleave the area. Their place will be than replaced by others who are responsible tor the operation. These persons are permanent, and they contribute to the technological capacity built of the Region. According the data given in SHE publications the required personal to operate the on-farm irrigation systems is more than 1000 in Sanliurfa-Harran Plains. Because of these projects the Region will be provided of high skilied persons. On the other hand to provide education and consultancy to the farmers and other 141 skilied persons are required ( Z. Ozcan, GAP). According a research, done by Prof. Ugur Buget ( Univarsity of Gaziantep), the Region doesnothave any engineer. The Region, and its technology is traditional. As mentioned in chapter 3 the Region has no in dustry. In this case, the technological contri bution of the project to the Region's technology capacity is enormous. Most of the mentioned technology are first order impact of the project. The technology created by industrial activities are, at this stage, impossible to assess. But each technology transported andfor developed within the Region after the irrigation can be indicated as the impact of the irrigation. Because of this technology capacity the education level, and 92 organization eapaeity of the Region will inerease. Again, these implies less dependenee on other region's and other eountries. Social impacts S. 1 Popu/ation The popuiatien growth rate of the Region is mueh higher than the average rate of Turkey. The urbanization is also high. There are rural area's with negative growth. To explain the popuiatien dynamic there are two theories: pull effect, and push effect. These torces have been used to analyze the aims in chapter 7. In this paragraph the birth rate will firstly be concerned. Secondly urbanization atter the irrigation will be analyzed. The important aspect of the popuiatien of the Region: high rate of birth. Because of this the popuiatien growth was high. The out-migration was an important factor which slowedit till 1990. But at present the out-migration alsoslowed down. This means the popuiatien remains in the Region. Within the Region the popuiatien mobility is high, many households leave their villages in the rural area, and look their future in the urban. To explain present preeess many factorscan be used. This is already done in chapter 7. But what will happen after the irrigation? This is the question of this chapter. The economie impravement does not directly effect the culture. The impravement effects the culture delayed. Because of several cultural factors (prestige, security, religion, having more children is functional. The average number children per . households is 7. As it is occurred in other region's after economie impravement the birth rate will decrease. The economie impravement will occur relative fast. I think the cultural change will nat occur as fast as economy. On the other hand the popuiatien density is relative less in the Region, there is enough place. Under this conditions the effect of the economie impravement can be negative: higher birth rate. The househeld will have more economie means to keep more children . lf we count the people religion(islam), which expects that moslems spose to have more children, it is plausible to expect that having more children will remain the collective behaviour of the households. The family planning projects will never reaeh their aims because of local culture. These consideration means that the popuiatien growth rate will remain high even atter several decades. Atter a long time the birth rate may decrease. Such a development can also be seen as the impact of the irrigation, but it is toa far to consider this. lt is hard to prove but the impacts of the project already started w.r.t. the population. Other wise the growth of Sanliurta can nat be explained. The irrigation will start their. Because of this, the people speculate, the people move the centre of the province. This implies a pull-effect. As it is foreseen in the Master Plan the eentres will industrialize, mainly to process the agrieultural products. This means employment, with relative high payments. On the other hand the infrastructure of the eentres are getting better. Under these conditions it is evident to expect that people move to the centres. 93 When firstly the irrigation starts, the needed Iabour, machines, and other requirements will also have to be provided. Otherwise the agricultural production can not be completed. At present the rural population, in Sanliurfa-Harran plains, is not enough tomeet the Iabour requirements which is created by the irrigation. To meet the requirements labourers have to move trom urban to the rural area. lf the agricultural production increases as it is planned the people will have to move to the rural area's. There will some urban people who moves to the rural, to have job, but to mine apinion the number of them will be less. The urban life is much more easy than the rurallife. Such a development (irrigation) will stop the urbanization at least. The income trom the agriculture will rise (as in Cukurova), the push-effect will weaken. But still the landless farmers (40%) are the graatest potential who may consider to move to the centres. To prevent such a development additional measures are required, I think. Keeping the agricultural productivity high, even after saveral (5-6) years, may be an important factor to keep the landless farmers trom rnaving to the centres. But as mentioned there are many factors that determines popuiatien characters: PKK, Army, the Project. Under this conditions it is hard to isolate the impact of the Project. At present the PKK factor counts very strong. lf the activities of this organization moves to the Sanliurfa province the effect of it can be disastrous for the project. 5.2 Living standards Living standards have many aspects: health, education, services provided by the state, infrastructure, living conditions, etc .. To assess the impact of the Project these indicators could be used. The impravement of the economie conditions will increase the economie sourees in the irrigated area. The households will get more to spend. Because of this, the living standards could be improved. In some respects this is not true. The heath, education, and the services provided by the state must be improved by the stated. The individuals are not the candidates to do these improvements. As mentioned befare the conditions, about health, education, infrastructure, and services provided by the state, are below the average level. As occurred in Cukurova the households will get financial means to build better houses, and to buy househeld goods. The provision of the electivity and telephone, that are already occurred, and a better households may increase the living conditions of the households at family level. Such a development implies many additional economie activities like construction and related industries, househeld good industry andjor trade. This kind of activities mayalso be considered as the impacts of the irrigation. Such a development is already happening in the irrigated area round Hancagiz dan in Gaziantep. The income levels will more than double at individual farm levels by the introduetion of irrigation. The average income per farmer per year will increase 7665 US$ by irrigation. The farmers will 12.76 percent of it will spent to imprave their housing conditions. And expenditures for the househeld goods will be 10.55 percent of additional income trom the irrigation. Thanks to this additional expenditure it is evident to expect impravement in the living conditions at households level. 94 Up to now the provision of health, and education services by the state was in the rural area's (but also in urban) to weak. Because of this weakness, the education level is very low. There are too many settlements that have still no organizations to provide health services. As a result of this the mortality is relative high. The basic infrastructures (roads and sewerage) are not developed: the roads are in bad conditions, and unusable during the winter periods, and there are no sewerage. The introduetion of irrigation will force the government to imprave these services. This has already been started: the governmental organizations (GAP organization) impraves the sewerage in Ceylanpinar, a centre in the Harran plains. To meet the infrastuctural requirements giant investments must be made, and many years are needed to meet the basic infrastructures. Meanwhile the irrigation has already started, the farmers have more to spend, what will happen then? Such a development may have two impacts: firstly w.r.t the agricultural output and secondly w.r.t. the out-migration. Having net enough basic infrastructure may effect the agricultural output negatively. In the first year of the irrigation, the output of the agriculture will increase. This output has to be transported to be processed or consumed. lf there is net enough raad and starage facilities the agricultural output may be spoiled. This will discourage the farmers. The expected income will stay away. Considering the present conditions and developments w.r.t. the basic infrastructure such a development may be expected. Finely it is possible to state,that the introduetion of irrigation will increase the activities to imprave the infrastructure, but provision of not sufficient infrastructure may put a brake on the agricultural output. Such a condition (more many to spend but net sufficient health and education facilities) may stimulate the out-migration: the farmers will sent their children to the city eentres to have education, particularly higher education. Tomeet the educational needs a new University (University of Harran) has been established in Sanliurfa. lncrease of the income per farmer is an intended impact, ene of the overall objective of the Project was "to raise the income levels in the GAP region ... ". This impact is a higher order (second order) impact. The higher income contribute (improvement of living conditions) to the impravement of the living standards. The additional requirements (health, education, infrastructure, etc.), that has to be realized by the state, may be considered as impacts of the irrigation but such requirements have to be provided by the state, wether the irrigation starts or net. In this case, the impact of the irrigation is stimulating the government w.r.t. these requirements. This implies the health, educational, and infrastructural conditions will be impraved when the irrigation has been started. The relation between the irrigation and impravement of these conditions is net direct but causal, it starts with the irrigation. That is why, these improvements arealso impacts of the Project. Without these requirements the intended-impacts (increase of productivity, out migration) of the irrigation may be slowed down at least. Out-migration in order to be educated is an unintended-impact, but it is a desired impact for the rural area (education level increases). 95 S.3 Stability At present the Region is not stable: there is a struggle between the PKK and state. This struggle has a background. At the early years of the Republic the government based their politics on nation (furk) and secularism. Turkey wasfis a multi-racial society, and Kurds are the biggest minority. The secularism was understood and applied as to be against Islam while the moslems (particularly the Kurds) were religieus. At this early years the struggle (sometimes hot (Sheik Said) sametimes cold) has been started. At that years the struggle was religieus, and the nation factor had played a minor roll. During the development of the country the Region remained tradition and underdeveloped. Because of these politics (nationalism and secularism) of the government, and underdevelopment of the Region the distance grow between Ankara and Region's people. The government considered the Region as a place to punish the civil servants (place with no infrastructure and no safety). Since 1980 a new struggle has been started between the PKK and Ankara. The final aim of the PKK (a Kurdish organization) is establishment of a independent Kurdish state (!). The ideology of this organization is Marxist-Leninistic-Nationalistic. At present the struggle is ideological. According the official ideology (Kemalism) there were no Kurds within Turkey, everyone was a Turk. Applying this point of view was a assimilative politie. Under this conditions it is evident that some Kurds try to safe their culture related to their nation. While the struggle is ideological it is evident that this organization (PKK) uses the economie conditions, which is not too good, of the Region to propagate its ideology, and to win supporters. As mentioned befare the Project will imprave the Region's economie conditions, and "to contributs to the national objectives of ...... social stability". Th is implies no struggle within the Region, treedom to move, to have own opinion, etc.. lt also implies a Region without PKK. Considering the propagation of the PKK it seems that the organization loses its most important argument to win supporters. When there was no Project, as it is now, the argument of the PKK was: the Turks (Ankara) neglect the Region because we are Kurds. And after the impravement of the economie conditions then will say: the Turks (Ankara) exploit our region. Considering the individual farmers in the rural area's the confidence will increase between the state and people. The people see the development with their own eyes. This is important because such a development was never happened before. A project which is giant and it brings prospects to the farmers will change their attitude. The impravement created by the irrigation will weaken the PKK in the rural area's. At present PKK is active in Mardin, Diyarbakir, and further to the east. The development in the Sanliurfa-Harran Plains may stop PKK from winning field to the west, to Sanliurfa. Such a development implies contribution to the national objective of social stability of the irrigation (Project). Less supporters means less power. PKK needs supports of the local people to be strong, and to be able struggle. lncreasing of the supporters means relative less activities, and this means more stability. 96 But as mentioned befare the struggle is ideological. As long as the reasans of this are actual the struggle between the state and PKK will continue. Tostop the struggle other measures are required, like no nationalistic official ideology, more treedom tor the local culture, language, and religion. Such a development has already been started. PKK is areaction to the official practises in the Region. Impravement of the economie conditions (project) and radical politica! changes will make PKK stopwithits struggle. This is of course true when PKK is a real Kurdish organization, which is not sure. SA. CUlture and structure The present culture and structure that governs the society, reflects the traditional, and nomadie life. As mentioned befere the kinship has a central place. The "aga" of a tribe has the most power. Every member of the clan must obey his words. The structure of the tribe begins already to dissolve and modern relation are replacing it. On theether hand the culture wasfis a mix of Islam and kinship relations. In the rural area's the traditional culture and structure are still actual. Every settiement (village) has an "Aga", beside officiai"Muhtar", and sametimes they are the same person. This indicator is very complex, and it has many aspects. Dealing all these aspects is beyond the limits of this study. Two points will be highlighted: w.r.t. the structure the tribe-households (aga) relations, and w.r.t. the culture the position of the wamen. The cultural and structural changes will occur delayed after the impravement of the economie conditions. Firstly the tribe relations (hierarchical structure with aga at the top) will weaken. The economie impravement will decrease the dependenee of the tribe. The househeld will meet their requirements trom the income received trom their own economie activities. In this process, the place of the tribe is negligible. There is no need to go to the "aga" tor this kind of problems. The relation between the familia heads and "aga" will weaken. This will exactly the start of the disselvation of the traditional and nomadie reactions. The place of the tribe will be replaced by the family. lt will became central, and at the top of the structure the father andjor the oldest man. As happened in the central cities the "aga" institution will be replaced by a official functions (Muhtar, mayor,). Aftersome decades the relation will became modern, but the family will keep its central place with father andjor at the top. Culture of the rural people has religieus and nomadie aspects. The nomadie live form will be replaced by the modern life form. On the other hand the position of the religion will remain as it is. Modern relations has little ethical rules, the activities have ene goal which is having more profit The cultural gap, which is remained after nomadie life ferm has been replaced, will be tilled by the religion (Islam). The islam place will become more dominant in the daily life. This will be demonstrated by describing the wamen position after the irrigation. As mentioned in chapter 3 the wamen have many functions: economie, social. Because of this functions the wamen are active in the daily life. They are everywhere. After irrigation their tunetion will be reduced to the households activities, and motherhood. 97 Islam has clear rules that govern the daily life, particularly at home. The wamen who have relativa less economie activities, and mostly at home, may apply the islamic rules w.r.t. the clothing, andrelation withstrange men. At present the women's cloths are appropriate to make them able to workin land. After the irrigation the women's cloths will become more symbolic of the islam. They will dress more modern islamic clothing. On the other hand the wamen will have the opportunity (time) to be more educated, the islam stimulate such education, and they will have time. 7 .3.2.3 Electric Energy Economie impacts A. Region The hydroelectric energy to be produced by the GAP hydrapower schemes will be far more than sufficient to meet any foreseeable demand by the prospective industries in the Region. This implies that the hydroelectric energy produced by this project will have to be mobilized in order to be used in the whole country. The Ataturk hydrapower plant will produce 8.9 billion kWh per year. On the other hand the average electric energy consumption per capita is 370 kWh in Sanliurfa, in the rural areas this can decrease to 100 kWh per year. At present 99% of the settlements are providedof the electivity in the Region. From the HEPP several transmission lines (2*Karababa, Gaziantep, Sanliurfa, Adiyaman, and Birecik) transmit electric energy to the local consumers. The required annum electric energy per capita can be estimated to be 0.9 billion kWh (1 0% of the annual production of Ataturk HEPP). Befare the electric energy production the eensurners were already providedof the electivity. In this respect nothing is changing. The Master Plan recommends:" The priority should be given, therefore, to extension of the transmission networks to ensure stabie and reliable supply, ... ". ·The transmission networks are extended (old and new networks). Because of this the stability and reliability of the energy supply is increased. On the other hand it should be stated that the distribution networks that transport the energy to the households are become obsolete. This is mainly the reason of less stability and reliability of the energy supply. Thus the new networks will contribute to the stability and reliability, but to meet the requirements w.r.t these points additional projects are required to renew the distribution netwerk. There are direct connections that transmit the electric energy produced in Ataturk HEPP, and important industries: Sanliura Cimento (Cement Fabriek) and Adiyaman Cimento. lt was not possible to gather the supply casts of the energy to those industries, but it is evident the casts are lower as the supply before. The distance between are not to long, and ones the investments casts of the transmission lines are earned back, than the supply casts are very low. The stability and reliability will also increase, (two connections, old and new). 98 In long term, the impact of the Attaturk HEPP will be more when the region has developed. lt is possible to supply the electric energy to the local industries cheeper. Because of the competition power of these industries may increase, but this point depends on the government polities. An ether point is that because of the HEPP which produces enough, a Therm plant is superfluous. This is than important for the clean air. A. Country The total installed power was 17,2 MW in 1991. When the installation of the 8 units are completed the contribution of the Atatruk HEPP will be 14 per cent. The electric energy consumption was 50 billion kWh in the same year. The contribution of the HEPP will be 18 per cent in the early years, befere the full development of the irrigation. After this, the contribution will be 16.2 per cent. There are three connections between Ataturk HEPP and Ankara. More than 80 per cent of the produced energy in Ataturk HEPP will be transmitted out of the Region. Such a development increases the stability and reliability of the electric energy supply in the country. The dependenee of the thermo energy will be decreased. In 1991 62 per cent of the electric energy was produced by the therm centrals. When the HEPP is full developed the increase of the hydra electric energy production will be almest 40 per cent. The contribution of the will decrease to below 50 per cent. This implies more "clean" energy and less air pollution. 99 Chapter 8 Impact Evaluation 8.1 Introduetion In the preceding chapters the Project, the aimed impacts, and the impact analysis have been considered. In this chapter the impacts will be evaluated. To evaluate the impacts, they must be weight, and their value must be determined. This process is necessary in order to come to the final conclusion about the project (tools). Weighting and valuation is an subjective process. The parties effected by the project should also contribute to this process. In mine case, the weighting and valuation of the impacts will be done by my self. This process will be doneon the basis of analysis given in the Master Plan, and general socio-economie situation of the Region. This chapter starts with the consideration of the evaluation method. From this consideration the relevant methad will be chosen. This paragraph will be foliowed by the presentstion of the impacts. The impacts are presented in matrix's. The final paragraph is the evaluation of the impacts. In this paragraph mine own judgments have been given. Most of the judgments are generaL This means they arealso relevant tor the GAP. A detailed consideration of the impacts has been avoided, since, as I explain in the following paragraphs, mine the conclusions are evident. 8.2 Evalustion Method Intheimpact analysis the impact are identifies and analyzed. Concerning this project, there are on the one side the aims of the project formulated in the Mater Plan and on theether side the impacts identified by this study. The next step, impact evaluation, is to weigh the different valued impacts, thus the determination of their relativa value in the TA system. Valuation on weighing is subjective, in the sense that different parties effected by the impacts will have different judgments. In tact it can be said this is the most critica! phase in the entire TA-process. Valuation and weighing therefore have to take place carefully and logically, particularly since out TA usually place in a cultural context different trom that of the final assessor. Th is problem can be partially avoided by providing, at various places in the TA-process, opportunities tor the different parties concerned to give their own judgments and to set their own priorities. The final assessor can then conduct hisjher evaluation on basis of these judgements. Concerning this study, it was not possible todetermine the judgments of the different parties to weigh the different impacts. The available time was not sufficient enough to provide the opportunity tor the different parties to five their own judgments. On the ether, hand it would be very ditticuit to get their own judgments since mine position has no official status. Because of these reasons, the evaluation of the impacts will be done on the basis of mine experience within the Region, and 100 on the basis of the Master Plan and ether publications. This is why, the weighing of the impacts will not be determined quantitative. Such a quantification would be too subjective. The impacts grouped in the preceding chapter per impact dimension, will be judged qualitatively. This study doesnotconcerns different technologies. lt's aim is not todetermine the best technology which contributes most to the chosen aims. Such a study should be made befare the technology has been chosen. The aim of this study is: identifying the impacts of a given technology and camparing them with the already formulated aims in order to propose the required measures to minimize the undesired impacts and to maximize the positive impacts. To reach this aim, weighing of the impacts are not necessary. lf an impact is undesired, to eliminate it a relevant maasurement should be formulated. To come to this conclusion weighing is not required. Considering this, the impacts identified in the preceding chapter, will be evaluated without a quantitative valuation. The impacts grouped per impact dimension, will be judged qualitatively. On the basis of these judgements final conclusion will be determined. 8.3 Impact presentation To evaluate the project the matrix proposed by H. Voogd will be used. This matrix contains two parts: at the one side the criteria (impact) which will be used to evaluate the project (technology), and on theether side the characters of the criteria in question. There are two kind of criteria's: qualitative, and quantitative. Both are presented in the same matrix. The impacts identified will be presented in several matrix's. In this matrix's, several data will be provided w.r.t the impacts. These are: - is it desired (benefit of not) tor the region or the people?, - if it is possible to express the impact quantitative, the quantitative data has been presented, if it's not possible then a qualitative presentation has been given, - sequence order of the impacts has been presented, - whether an impact intendedor not-intended has been given. Firstly the aimed impacts will be presented. These are identified and analyzed in chapter 5. on the basis of the objectives formulated in the Master Plan. These aims are at macro level. There are also aims mentioned in the Master Plan at micro level. Some of these aims are presented in the matrix's containing the impacts identified by mine analysis. Secondly the impacts that are occurred during the implementation period will be presented. Finally the impacts identified for the period after the construction will be given. 101 8.3.1 Presentation 8.3.1.1 The aimed impacts Impacts that are aimed IMPACTS quall.fquant. benefit/nol sequence A. Economie IE.1 lncome level inerease ++++ - IE.2 Agrieulture improve ++++ - IE.3 Employment 384000 ++++ - IE.4 Productivity 134% ++++ - B. Social IS.1 Out-migration stop ++ - C.Political IP.Stability more ++++ - 1 ne se q uence oraers nave not oeen ment1onea 1n tne Master 1-'lan 8.3.1.2 Impacts during lmplementation Impacts implementation period IMPACTS quall.fquanl benefit/nol lnlendedfnot sequence A. Economie IMPE.1 invest. costs 7,6*10-6 $ ++ necessary 1 IMPE.2 employment 10000/year +++ necessary 1 IMPE.3 nationalization 220*10-6 $ necessary 2 1.arable land lost 50263 ha - 1 2.settlements lost 120 - 1 3.forest lost 3160 ha - 1 4.meadows lost 27 035 ha - 1 5.courts 7-11000/y + 3 B. Soeial S.1 Migration 110000 - 2 1.income per households 12 500$ + necessary 3 2. rents inerease -+ not 3 3.construction inerease + not 3 C. Environmental 0 0 necessary 1 102 8.3.1.3 Impact after construction Impacts of the lake IMPACTS qualifquant. benefit/nol intended 1nol sequence A. Economie LE.1 Fishery increase ++ Int 1 1.production 3*1()..9 kgfy +++ Int 1 2.consumption +270% +++ Int 2 LE.2 Tourism increase -+ Int 1 1. pollution increase - not 2 8. Social LS.1 Uve stile change -+ not 2 1.clothing modern -+ not 2 2. swimming learning + not 1 C. Environmental LEN.1 Atmosphere change + not 1 1. dampness increase ·+ not 1 2. tempersture decrease + not 2 variatien LEN.2 Process slowed ++ not 1 1. flood prevention stop ++ not 1 2. soil erosion 0 + not 1 103 impacts of the irrigation water IMPACTS quali.fquant. benefitjnot intendedjnot sequence A. Economie Main EM.1 General profits 780 $/ha ++++ Int 1 EM.2 lncome levels increase ++++ Int 3 EM.3 Employment increase +++ Int 2 1.out-migration decrease + not 3 EM.4 Import-Export increase ++++ Int 2 Agriculture EA. 1 Fertilizer n2kgfha ++ Int 1 1.industrial actlvities increase +++ Int 2 EA.2 Mechanization increase ++ Int 1 1.industrial actlvities increase +++ Int 2 EA.3 Productivity increase ++++ Int 1 1. erop rotation 2/year + Int 1 2.transport improve +++ Int 2 3. storage increase + Int 2 4. industrial actlvities increase +++ Int 2 EA.4 Crop pattern change 0 Int 1 EA.5 Drainage 0 ++ Int 1 EA.6 Grouping 0 + Int 1 EA. 7 Uvestock decrease - not 2 B. Environmental 0 EE. 1 Physical 1. salting increase - not 1 2. pollution increase - not 2 EE.2 Biologica! 1. plant new sort -+ not 1 2. insects increase - not 1 C. Technological increase ++ not 1 T.1 Material increase ++ not 1 T.2 Personal increase ++ not 1 D. Social 0 S.1 Population 1. popuiatien density increase ++ Int 4 2. out-migration stop + Int 3 3. in-migration increase + Int 3 S.2 Uving standards increase +++ Int 3 1. housing improve ++ not 3 2. education increase ++ Int 4 3. infrastructure increase ++ Int 3 S.3 Stability increase ++++ Int 4 S.4 Culture and structure 0 - 1. "Aga" disappear + not 5 2. wo men 's place weaken - not 5 104 Impacts of the electrio energy IMPACTS quali.fquant. benefitjnot intendedfnot sequence Economie A. Region 1. stability increase + Int 1 2. reliability increase + Int 1 3. energy costs lower ++ not 1 B.Country 1. stability increase ++ not 1 2. reliability increase ++ not 1 3. less dependenee of increase + not 1 thermo energy 3. 1 pollution decrease - not 2 Explanation of the symbols: 1. sequence (order): 1 =first order impact, 2= secend order impact, 3=third order impact, etc. 2. intenjnot: indented means the impact in question has been foreseen as an goal/ and ether option is not indented (not foreseen as a goal) 3. benefitjnot: if an impact has benefits, than it is indicated with "+"of"-". More"+" or "-" means the impact in question has more benefits or casts, "- +" indicated benefits and casts. 4. qual.fquan.: if it is possible to express an impact quantitatively than it is done with the unit, and if it is not possible, (not possible at all or too many possibilities) than the impact is expressed qualitatively. 5. o: indicates no relevancy 6. 0: not benefit and no casts 105 8.4 Evaluation In the following paragraphs the project will be evaluated. Considering the "aims tools-impacts" cycle, this will also be the evaluation of the ''tools". This process will be executed according to the analysis done in chapter 6 and 7. Firstly the findings of the chapter 6 will be used to evaluate the "tools" (8.4.1). Secondly, the findings of the chapter 7 are used to evaluate the ''tools" again. But this time the impacts used are more comprehensive, and it includes the intendedas wellas not-intended impacts. 8.4.1 Project aims The Master Plan only formulates the objectives with regard to the macro socio economie situation. This is understandable since these objectives present the general socio-economie situation of the Region. These objectives represent many socio-economie factors. Each factor contributes to the completion of this objectives. These factors are not mentioned as objectives, but most of them are considered by the Master Plan. Considering of these socio-economie factors in this study would partly be the repeat of the Master Plan. This is not the intention of this study of course. This is why, the analysis w.r.t. the project aims arebasedon the develop ment objectives formulated by the Master plan. And the consideration of ether detailed factors are integrated into mine analysis, and discussions. From the tormulation of the objectives one can gather that the impravement of the economie situation of the Region has the highest priority. Other objectives, and goals are probably considered as a matter of secondary importance. I think such a priority for the economie situation is justified if one considers the present socio economie situation of the Region. Hundreds of years it was nat possible to break the vicieus circle of poverty. In such a condition it is evident to mobilize every possible mean to imprave the economie situation. At this stage, other matters have little importance. Even the integral character of the project, which is developed in 1984, has the final goal to imprave the economie situation of the Region. Considering the natural resources of the Region it is evident, again, to start this economie development with the irrigation. The Region has sufficient arabie land and fresh water which can be mobilized for this purpose. Since thousand of year, the water of the Firat river has been passed the Region without being exploited for sake of the local people. This is going to be changed. In this case, it was a right decision to chose the technology chosen by which the irrigation will become possible. By means of this technology, not only the Firat river will be exploited, but the arabie land as well. Only A dam can provide the required irrigation water to irrigate the arabie land round the Ataturk DAM. 8.4.2 lmplementation period The considerations given above are supported by the impacts presented in the preesding paragraphs. In general, the people will have great economie profits farm 106 the project. The investment casts made to construct the Ataturk dam, Sanliurfa Tunnels, and irrigation schames are provided incames to many households round the project, in Sanliurfa and Adiyaman. During the implementation period many employment has been created. Because of this, thousands of households had/have a reasanabie income to live from. On the other hand, because of the nationalization thousands of households received income to migrata to the centres, which was not possible. This households have a reasanabie house and live in the cities now. The arabie land washed by the reservoir was enough to have a poor life, but no more than that. To mine opinion, the migration to the eentres has not been experienced as a negative impact. This judgment is supported by the urbanization ratio within the Region. The rural households looks for the possibilities to migrata to the cities. The environmental impacts (destructien of fauna, and flora) has no relevancy for the people, I think. The rural people round the dam had no provisions of basic needs such drink water, but they have many arabie land. They had no houses in reasanabie conditions. Under such conditions environment has little relevancy. Because of the nationalization many land and settlements have been lost, these have been considered as "not benifit" (see 8.3.1.2). On the other hand the income to the households as campensatien of these losts is high appreciated. lt seems that the migration is not a benifit for the households, but if we consider the urbanization and the rural live it is possible to say that the poeple do no consider the migration as negative. 8.4.3 Atter the implementation A. Lake At present a giant lake has been created. As it is can be seen trom the related matrix the lake has more benefits than casts. The opportunity to fish will increase. At the very beginning, only individuals will fish fortheir own consumption. But when the required measures have been established by the governmental organizations, the fishery could be an important income souree for many households round the lake. The Region has many places to viscid, but they are not well known. Because of the lake, the taurist may visit the lake and other historica! places. The tourism can contributs to the economie impravement of the Region. This impacts was also dealt by the Master Plan. Beside the economie contribution the tourists may also contributs to modernize the social life. Such a modernization process may have saveral complications for the local people: family problems because of modernization level of the individuals. The tourist, and the settlements round the lake will wastes. lt is evident to consider that this wastes will pollute the lake. At this point it must be stated, that the taurist and visitors attracted by the lake are the potential dangerous for the lake. The government should meet the required measures to prevent such a development, 107 but 1think may years will go befare measures will be taken. This implies that the lake will lose its beauty during the development of the Region, which is common. Environmental impacts as increasing of the dampness and decreasing temperature variations will be at first minor. The social live will probably nat notice such a change. The flood prevention is an important benefit for the settlements and arabie land round the river. The soil erosion will continue, as it is befare the project, but the soil will nat be transported out of the country. B. lrrigation Water As mentioned in preceding paragraphs, the irrigation will break through the vicious circle. The dryfarming will be replaced by the irrigation. In every respect the agricultural production methad will change. The agricultural inputs and outputs will dramatically change. At the inputs side the agriculture will become more modern. The use of modern inputs will increase more than twice. The productivity per unit of land will also increase. In this case, it is evident to conclude that the economie activities will increase. More economie activities means more economie prospects tor the local people. Considering the socio-economie situation before, the irrigation will only bring benefits, the income per capita will increase, more employment, and more export and import, as general indicators. When these aims are reached the Region will become a developed region with developed problems, like pollution, salting, new kind of diseases. I think, if I was there, the employment and more income was more important to me than pollution, and salting of the arabie land. On the other hand the life standard will be improved, as it is occurred in Cukurova, and the life stile will become more modern which is desired by the government in Ankara. This point is important since the Regions is in many respects a separated region in Turkey. The Region wilt nat only economically integrated but also social. An important agricultural impact which is nat intended (opposite has been intended) is the increase of the livestock in the irrigated area's. This can beseen as a cast (lost) but it is also possible to consider it as a development. The households do nat need additional income coursed, the income trom the farm is enough. But for the Region, and for the country the increase of the livestock is a lose. Considering the social impacts it is possible to state that the population growth will continue for a long time. After than it is acceptable that it will decrease. At this stage the Region is less populated. In spite of the economie improvement, having more children will be functional (security, prestige, income source). The religion (islam) stimulates having of more children. On the other hand because of economie impravement out-migration will stop. This implies more population growth, which can stimulated the economie growth at this stage. Later the population growth may be a eenstraint for the development. The Region will increase its technology capacity: new industries, HEPP, DAM, irrigation systems. Because of these technologies the Region will be more 108 industrialized than before. The agricultural sector has a contribution to the Gross Regional Product, and employment. The industry will also increase its contribution to the GRP, and employment. Because of this the relativa contribution of the industry will increase also. Finally the socio-economie impravement of the Region is too important for the local people as wellas for the country. The project has the capacity to realize this impravement Unintended, and undesired impacts are not too important. This kind of impacts can be limited by means of relevant measurements. C. Electric Energy At this stage the Region has no industry to consume the electric energy produced by the Ataturk HEPP. lt is also not possible tosave the electric energy in order to use it later. In this case it is evident to transmit the electric energy to the eensurners in ether region's. Because of this the stability and reliability of the electric energy will increase. This is an important development for the industries, and big eentres as Ankara, lstanbul, and lzmir. I think, the consumption of the electric energy in ether region's should not be seen as exploiting the Region. When the Region has increased its consumption capacity the eensurners within the Region can also be provided of the electric energy through the transmission netwerk. This is a matter of development which is started thanks to the project. The Region will also have benefits trom the electric energy. lts electric energy stability, and reliability will also increase. Because of the short transmission connections it is also possible to supply energy cheeper to the great consumers, like Sanliurfa cement factory. 109 Chapter 9. Conclusions and Remarks In this chapter I present mine last apinion w.r.t the project. The conclusions are the result of the analysis given in the preesding chapters. From the mine analysis and the experiences in the Region mine final conclusions are set up as fellows: The GAP region is a underdeveloped region. This is partly caused by its climatologic and geographical conditions. During it development the central government, more or less, neglected the region. The region has been seen as a part of the country to banish the civil servants. The region has superfluous resources, but they could nat be exploited up to now. To imprave the economie structure of the region, the official organizations (DSI) had developed a development project. Gonsidaring the region's natural resources and socio economie situation, it was evident to develop set of projects that would mobilize these resources in order to develop the region. To mine apinion the development of the irrigation projects was a right establishment. An other technology in order to develop the region would have no relevancy tor the region. The GAP was developed to provide irrigation water and to generata hydrapower. Later the project become a integrated project which aims to develop the region in every respect. Such a development can have many benefits, but on the other hand the courses are (manpower and capita!) limited. Concentratien to construct the individual project should be better done if the project was nat integrated. Firstly the basis (original projects) must be finished. Because of the integration character of the project, the implementation period are extended. lt is evident, that the introduetion of a new technology in a certain socio-economie situation would have many kind of effects (impacts). Gonsidaring the socio economie situation of the region, it is also evident to award the impravement of the economie structure as having the highest value and weigh. Socio, legal, environmental, and technological impacts have little relevancy tor the local people. 1 have seen many old men who were bagging for many, children that were nat be able to go to the schools. There are hundreds of settlements that have no drink water during the summer. The eentres do nat have sufficient sewerage systems, and other kind of infrastructure. Under these conditions, the local people have no times to consider the environmental impacts. Pollution, as it is known in the western countries, will probably never occur there. Their religion forbids ever kind of waste. To identify, to analyze, and to evaluate the impacts of the project, the TA developed in USA can be used. The TA includes useful techniques to guide the assessors in this process. This tooi have been developed in order to minimize the negative effects of a technology, or to evaluate different technologies (projects). Consideration of the impacts of a technology, and developing a technique to analyze them is a phenomenon that is arisen in the industrialized countries. Using such a technique in a developing country may have great scientific value, but for the local (poor) people most of the identified impacts has little relevancy. 110 As it can be seen trom the analysis, the project will have mostly positive impacts. Since the impravement of the economie structure of the region has the highest value, the objectives of the Mater Plan w.r.t. the economie situation are justified. Everybody are waiting tor the water in the region. Many people migrate (temporary) to the Cukurova, and they see their the prospects that are caused by the irrigation. Such a development will also come to the Region. The project (GAP as well as Ataturk dam and HEPP) is able tobring these prospects. In spite of the consideration given above there are tour important problems w.r.t. the development of the Region. Firstly the erop pattern. lf the erop pattem after the irrigation has nat a content as it is predicted, but it is dominated (80-90%) by the cotton, it is possible to foresee that the irrigation water will nat be sufficient. An ether point is the catton required relativa more water. Because of this the groundwater level may increase. This can be the start of salting in generaL The door to such a problem should be closed. The measurements required should be developed and implemented. During mine presence in the Region, the experts were discussing this problem. The education of the farmers has been pointed as the most important measure to prevent this development. Secend problem is also directly related to the project. As stated before, the plains that are going to be irrigated, have not sufficient drainage. Experts propose nat to start the irrigation as long as there is no sufficient drainage system. This can also result into salting of the land. First problem combined with insufficient drainage can cast many arabie land. As soon as possible the governmental organizations should also close this door. Third problem is the trade to the middle east countries. Since the borders are · closed, there are no important trade within the Region. lf we consider the present politica! situation with Syria and lraq, it is possible to conclude that present situation will extended into the future tor a long period. After the irrigation the surplus produced must be exported to ether region's and countries. The middle east countries are very close to the Region. lt is evident to export the surplus to these countries. lf this is not realized, the prospects of the irrigation may be lost very soon. The government (Ankara) should consider its politics w.r.t the Middle east countries again, and come to the politics that proteet the people interests in the Reg ion. Last problem is the PKK activities. This organization operates in the whole Region. lts activities destabilize the region's social and economie life. Cities like Diyarbakir, Mardin, Sirnak, and Batman become big villages. To maximize the benefits of the irrigation a stabie region is required. Without this stability, the foreseen impacts will may stay away. The governments tried to realize the stability with its army, and the results are nothing. I think it is now time to consider ether measures: like more democracy, more cultural freedom. The government should leave its nationalistic politics and excepts the multi-cultural and multi-racial structure of Turkey. Such measurements are necessary in order to will the support of the local people. Without the support of the local people, it is impossible to stop the terrorists activities of PKK. 111 Heferences 1. Final Master Plan Report (volume 1, 2, 3, 4) Republic of Turkey State Planning Organization April1989 2. Technology Assessment for projectsin developing countries Lex Lammens CICA, TU-Eindhoven 3. Multicriteria Evaluation tor Urban-and Regional Planning H.Voodg 1983 Pion Umited 4. Technology Assessment Dr. ir. J. G. Wissema 1977, Deventer 5. Technology Assessment For Development United Nations 1979, New York 6. Handbock of Development Economics Volume 1,2 Edited: Hollis Chenery 1991, Amsterdam 7. Technology for Developing countries Drs. P.T. van Tilburg TU-Eindhoven 1990 8. A guidebook for Technology Assessment and impact Analysis I. Porter and L Alan 1980, North Holland 9. Statistica( Yearbook of Turkey State Jnstitute of Statistics February, 1993 Ankara 10. Statistica! Indicators State lnstitute of Statistics January, 1993 Ankara 11. Nisan 1993'de Turkiye Economisi lstatistik ve Yorum State lnstitute of Statistics April,1993 Ankara 12. General Agriculture Census 1991 State lnstitute of Statistics January, 1993 Ankara 13. Ex-post evaluation of the Lower Seyhan Project E. Benli, 0. Tekinel Univarsity of Cukurova Adana 14. Guneydogu Anadolu Bolgesi Uygun Yatirim Alanlari Arastirmasi Desiyab December, 1984 112 15. Economie Rapor 1989 Sanliurfa Chambers of Commeres 1990, Sanliurfa 16. GAP Marketing and Crop pattern Study GAP Administration August, 1992 17. Sanliurfa Arazi Kullanim Planlarnasi Tarim Reformu Genel Mudurlugu VAK-PA and Ucer Ankara,1992 18.GAP Southeastern Anatolia Project Middle East Business and Banking 1989 19.Gunaydogu Anadolu Projesi GAP Administration June, 1992 Ankara 20. Diyalog Tahlan Dericioglu Ankara, 1990 21. Rising Tide of Opportunity Prof. Dr. Taylan Dericioglu GAP Administration September 1990 22. Impact Evaluation Report Seyhan lrrigation Report The Word Bank June, 1985 23. Changing Rural socio-cultural structure and Land Tenure System in the GAP Region Werking Paper Bahattin Aksit May, 1988 24. 'Water" International, special issue on water, pease & conflict Management Sahim Tekeli December, 1990 25. Will the "Fertile Crescent" rise again? By E.E. Walter Production 26. GAP'nin Bolgening Socio-ekonomik Yapisi Uzerine olusturacagi muhtemel etkiler Nihat Batmaz June, 1991 Trabzon 27. GAP Acisindan Turkiye'de Bolge Kalkinmasi Politikalar, Araclar ve Kurumlar Ananumus July, 1991 28. Tribal System in the GAP region Werking Paper Ahmet Ozer July, 1989 113 30.Southeastern Anatolia Development Plan Doe. Dr. Turan Yazgan Emsa A.S. lntanbul, 1977 31. GAP region projects DSI Ananomus November, 1991 32. GAP Regional development institution establishment Official newspaper 6 November 1989 33. GAP bolge Politikasina Yonelik bir Deneme Vedat Ozbilen March, 1989 34. Several reports prepared for the meeting of 5 May 1993 Organized by the GAP Administration 35. BUA, Regional Transportation and infrastructure Dr. Neset Akmandor June, 1991 36. MOM of irrigation systems, project proposal GAP Administration January, 1992 37. Present secteral situation report (A,B,C) GAP Administration April, 1991 Ankara 38. GAP'ta Tarima Dayali Sanayi Politikalari Nihat Batmaz Juni, 1992 Trabzon 39. Southeastern Anatolia Project GAP Administration April, 1993 Ankara 40. GAP kapsaminda DSI tarafindan Yurutulen Calismalar GAP Administration April, 1993 Ankara 41. Lower Firat Project Feasibility Report, volume 3 DSI April, 1970 114