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China's Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Major Drivers and Issues for The China’s Evolving Nuclear Deterrent Major Drivers and Issues for the United States Eric Heginbotham, Michael S. Chase, Jacob L. Heim, Bonny Lin, Mark R. Cozad, Lyle J. Morris, Christopher P. Twomey, Forrest E. Morgan, Michael Nixon, Cristina L. Garafola, Samuel K. Berkowitz C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1628 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9646-3 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: REUTERS/Andy Wong/Pool. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Since its first nuclear test in October 1964, China has maintained a modest nuclear force to achieve limited deterrence goals. In many ways, China’s limited nuclear arsenal and restrained posture have made it an outlier in the nuclear world. In recent years, however, new trends have turned China’s outlier status on its head; while the established nuclear states, especially the United States and Russia, have reduced their nuclear inventories, China has increased the numbers of its strategic missiles and war- heads and dramatically improved the quality of its force. Understanding the future of China’s nuclear forces, doctrine, and policy is critical to shaping an appropriate U.S. approach to strategic issues. This report examines the key drivers, including both external and internal forces, that will shape Chinese nuclear decisionmaking over the next ten years. While it pays particular attention to China’s strategic relationship with the United States, which remains Beijing’s primary focus in formulating policy, it also considers the role that developments in third countries might play—a topic other studies have seldom treated and never systematically. In this context, China’s emergent nuclear relationship with India and dynamics on the South Asian subcontinent are likely to be particularly important. The analysis of internal drivers addresses the potential impacts of bureau- cratic politics, organizational processes, and the availability of resources. This research should be of interest to nuclear specialists, Asian foreign policy and security experts, policymakers, military officers, and anyone interested in Chinese or nuclear issues. The work was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. The draft report was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Moderniza- tion and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; iii iv China’s Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Major Drivers and Issues for the United States and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figure and Tables .................................................................................... ix Summary .............................................................................................. xi Acknowledgments ...................................................................................xv CHAPTER ONE China’s Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Introduction ............................................ 1 Background ............................................................................................. 2 Literature Review ...................................................................................... 6 Objectives, Scope, and Boundaries .................................................................. 9 Findings ................................................................................................13 Organization of This Report ........................................................................13 CHAPTER TWO Baseline: China’s Evolving Strategic Nuclear Concepts ......................................15 Chinese Nuclear Policy ...............................................................................15 Chinese Views on Deterrence ...................................................................... 22 Chinese Nuclear Strategic and Operational Concepts ........................................... 26 Future Evolution ..................................................................................... 34 CHAPTER THREE China’s Nuclear Force Structure ..................................................................37 Historical Background .............................................................................. 38 China’s Current Nuclear Force Structure ......................................................... 40 Future Land- and Sea-Based Missile Systems ..................................................... 43 Conclusions ........................................................................................... 46 CHAPTER FOUR China’s View of the Global Security Environment ............................................49 Overall Security Environment .......................................................................49 Low Likelihood of Major Power Conflict ..........................................................51 v vi China’s Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Major Drivers and Issues for the United States Threats Remain, Asia-Pacific Region Less “Stable” ...............................................51 Chinese Views on Global Nuclear Environment ..................................................53 Conclusions ........................................................................................... 54 CHAPTER FIVE Chinese Views of U.S. Nuclear Forces and Policy .............................................57 U.S. Nuclear Weapon Doctrine and Strategy .....................................................58 Ballistic Missile Defense............................................................................. 60 Conventional Prompt Global Strike ................................................................65 Conclusion .............................................................................................67 CHAPTER SIX Nested Security Dilemmas and China’s View of Other (Non-U.S.) Nuclear Powers ...69 Nested Security Dilemmas ...........................................................................69 Russia as Contributor to Global Nuclear Atmospherics ..........................................71 South Asia’s Increasing Nuclear Prominence ......................................................78 China’s North Korea Problem ...................................................................... 87 China’s View of Japan ............................................................................... 90 Conclusion .............................................................................................95 CHAPTER SEVEN Internal Drivers: Political Leadership and Bureaucracy .................................... 97 China’s Political Leadership and the Rational-Actor Model .................................... 98 Bureaucratic Politics and the Military Services .................................................. 102 Organizational Process as a Potential Driver of Chinese Nuclear Force Structure .......... 112 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 118 CHAPTER EIGHT Material Resources and Constraints ........................................................... 121 China’s Budgetary Environment .................................................................. 121 Fissile Material as a Limiting Factor .............................................................. 125 Conclusions .......................................................................................... 128 CHAPTER NINE Outputs: Potential Developments in China’s Nuclear Future ............................. 129 China’s Discussions of the No-First-Use Policy ................................................. 129 Accelerated Buildup of Nuclear Systems ........................................................
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