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Masalah Calon Presiden Populer DINAMIKA ELEKTORAL JELANG PILPRES DAN PILEG SERENTAK 2019 Temuan Survei: Nasional, 25-31 Maret 2018 Pengantar • Pemilihan Presiden (Pilpres) dan Pemilihan Legislatif (Pileg) akan dilakukan serentak pada 17 April 2019 yang akan datang. Rangkaian tahapan untuk itu sudah dilakukan sejak sekarang, dimana pendaftaran calon presiden (Capres) dan calon wakil presiden (Cawapres) akan dilaksanakan pada 4–10 Agustus 2018. • Karenanya, ada dua hal yang perlu diamati dari hal tersebut: • (1) Bagaimana peta besar kekuatan politik: peta kekuatan partai-partai, poros capres yang akan terbentuk dan peluang para capres? • (2) Bagaimana peta pemilih dalam Pilpres dan Pileg tersebut? • Survei nasional (surnas) Indikator Politik Indonesia (Indikator) Maret 2018 menemukan temuan menarik soal tersebut. Data surnas ini juga dilengkapi dengan temuan surnas sebelumnya (Februari 2018) dan survei opini publik yang dilakukan di Provinsi Jawa Barat pada 5-13 Maret 2018 dan Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 12-21 Maret 2018. Survei Nasional, Maret 2018 | 2 Metodologi • Populasi survei ini adalah seluruh warga negara Indonesia yang yang punya hak pilih dalam pemilihan umum, yakni mereka yang sudah berumur 17 tahun atau lebih, atau sudah menikah ketika survei dilakukan. • Dari populasi itu dipilih secara random menggunakan metode multistage random sampling. • Responden terpilih diwawancarai lewat tatap muka oleh pewawancara yang telah dilatih. • Quality control terhadap hasil wawancara dilakukan secara random sebesar 20% dari total sampel oleh supervisor dengan kembali mendatangi responden terpilih (spot check). Dalam quality control tidak ditemukan kesalahan berarti. • Jumlah sampel untuk survei nasional Maret 2018 sebanyak 1200 responden. Margin of error sekitar +/- 2.9% pada tingkat kepercayaan 95% (dengan asumsi simple random sampling). Jumlah sampel surnas Februari 2018 sebanyak 2020 responden. Margin of error rata-rata dari survei dengan ukuran sampel tersebut sebesar +/- 2.2% pada tingkat kepercayaan 95% (dengan asumsi simple random sampling). Sementara untuk survei Provinsi Jawa Barat dan Jawa Tengah jumlah sampel masing-masing 800 responden, dengan Margin of error sekitar +/- 3.5%. Survei Nasional, Maret 2018 | 3 Flowchat Penarikan Sampel Nasional Populasi desa/kelurahan tingkat Nasional Prov 1 Prov k Desa/kelurahan di tingkat … Provinsi dipilih secara random dengan … jumlah proporsional Ds 1 … Ds m Ds 1 … Ds n RT1 RT2 RT3 …. RT5 Di setiap desa/kelurahan dipilih sebanyak 5 RT dengan cara random Di masing-masing RT/Lingkungan KK1 KK2 dipilih secara random dua KK Di KK terpilih dipilih secara random Laki-laki Perempuan Satu orang yang punya hak pilih laki-laki/perempuan Survei Nasional, Maret 2018 | 4 VALIDASI SAMPEL PROFIL DEMOGRAFI RESPONDEN NASIONAL KATEGORI Feb'18 Mrt'18 POPULASI KATEGORI Feb'18 Mrt'18 POPULASI GENDER ETNIS Laki-laki 50,0 50,0 50,1 Jawa 42,8 41,2 40,2 Perempuan 50,0 50,0 49,9 Sunda 15,3 15,6 15,5 DESA-KOTA Batak 2,5 3,0 3,6 Pedesaan 51,0 50,8 50,2 Madura 3,9 5,2 3,0 Perkotaan 49,0 49,2 49,8 Betawi 3,0 3,4 2,9 AGAMA Minang 3,0 1,6 2,7 Islam 89,3 86,7 87,3 Bugis 2,0 2,0 2,7 Katolik/Protestan 8,9 10,2 9,8 Melayu 5,2 5,2 2,3 Lainnya 1,8 3,1 3,0 Lainnya 22,2 22,7 27,1 Survei Nasional, Februari dan Maret 2018 | 6 PROFIL DEMOGRAFI RESPONDEN NASIONAL KATEGORI Feb'18 Mrt'18 POPULASI KATEGORI Feb'18 Mrt'18 POPULASI PROVINSI PROVINSI ACEH 2,0 1,6 1,8 NTB 2,0 1,6 1,9 SUMUT 5,0 4,9 5,3 NTT 1,5 1,6 1,7 SUMBAR 2,0 1,6 1,9 KALBAR 2,0 1,6 1,9 RIAU 2,5 2,5 2,2 KALTENG 1,0 0,8 1,0 JAMBI 1,5 1,6 1,3 KALSEL 1,5 1,6 1,5 SUMSEL 3,0 3,3 3,1 KALTIM 1,0 1,6 1,3 BENGKULU 1,0 0,8 0,7 KALTARA 0,5 0,8 0,2 LAMPUNG 3,0 3,3 3,2 SULUT 1,0 0,8 1,0 BABEL 0,5 0,8 0,5 SULTENG 1,0 0,8 1,0 KEPRI 0,5 0,8 0,7 SULSEL 3,0 2,5 3,4 DKI 3,5 3,3 3,8 SULTRA 1,0 0,8 1,0 JABAR 17,8 16,4 17,6 GORONTALO 0,5 0,8 0,4 JATENG 14,9 15,6 14,5 SULBAR 0,5 0,8 0,5 DIY 1,5 1,6 1,5 MALUKU 0,5 0,8 0,6 JATIM 16,3 15,6 16,3 MALUT 0,5 0,8 0,4 BANTEN 4,5 4,1 4,2 PAPUA BARAT 0,5 0,8 0,4 BALI 1,5 1,6 1,6 PAPUA 1,5 1,6 1,7 Survei Nasional, Februari dan Maret 2018 | 7 EVALUASI TERHADAP KONDISI UMUM NASIONAL Kondisi Ekonomi Bagaimana Ibu/Bapak melihat keadaan ekonomi nasional pada umumnya sekarang? Sangat baik, baik, sedang, buruk, atau sangat buruk? … (%) 60 48,3 50 40 30 27 18,9 20 10 2,2 1,5 2,1 0 Sangat Baik Baik Sedang Buruk Sangat Buruk Tidak tahu/tidak jawab Lebih banyak yang menilai positif dibanding yang menilai negatif. Survei Nasional, Maret 2018 | 9 Kondisi Ekonomi Rumah Tangga Sekarang Dibanding Tahun Lalu Apakah Ibu/Bapak melihat keadaan ekonomi RUMAH TANGGA Ibu/Bapak sendiri pada umumnya SEKARANG INI menjadi jauh lebih buruk, lebih buruk, tidak ada perubahan, lebih baik, atau jauh lebih baik dibanding TAHUN LALU? … (%) 45 38,6 40 38,4 35 30 25 20 18,4 15 10 2,8 5 0,7 1,1 0 Jauh lebih buruk Lebih Buruk Tidak ada Lebih Baik Jauh lebih baik Tidak perubahan tahu/jawab Ekonomi rumah tangga dalam setahun terakhir dinilai membaik. Survei Nasional, Maret 2018 | 10 Apakah Ibu/Bapak melihat keadaan ekonomi nasional pada umumnya sekarang ini menjadi jauh lebih buruk, lebih buruk, tidak ada perubahan, lebih baik, atau jauh lebih baik ini dibanding tahun lalu? … (%) 45 39,5 40 34,1 35 30 25 20 17,5 15 10 7 5 0,3 1,6 0 Jauh lebih Lebih Buruk Tidak ada Lebih Baik Jauh lebih Tidak buruk perubahan baik tahu/tidak jawab Ekonomi nasional dalam setahun terakhir dinilai membaik. Survei Nasional, Maret 2018 | 11 70 58 60 56 53 51 52 50 49 47 50 45 43 44 43 41 42 42 41 42 41 40 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 38 38 38 37 38 38 38 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 36 40 35 35 35 36 35 35 36 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 34 34 33 33 33 32 33 33 32 32 32 32 31 31 32 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 31 31 31 31 30 31 30 3031 31 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 28 29 28 28 27 27 28 28 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 27 30 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 26 25 26 24 24 24 24 24 23 24 24 23 23 22 22 23 2223 22 23 23 22 22 23 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 19 19 19 18 17 18 18 20 15 16 12 10 10 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 0 0 Sept Sept Jul'09 Jul'11 Jul'14 Apr'09 Apr'13 Mrt'14 Apr'14 Apr'16 Mrt'18 Mei'09 Jun'09 Jan'10 Okt'10 Mei'11 Okt'13 Jan'14 Mei'14 Jun'14 Okt'14 Jun'15 Okt'15 Jan'16 Jun'16 Ags'16 Apr '05 Apr '07 Apr '08 Apr Mar'09 Mar'10 Aug'10 Des'10 Des'11 Feb'12 Sep'12 Des'12 Mar'13 Des'13 Des'15 Mar'16 Okt '04 Okt '05 Jun '07 Jun '08 Jun '08 Okt Nov'09 Sep'03 '04 Des '06 Des Sep'07 '07 Des Sep'08 '08 Des Feb'09 Sept'17 Des '05 Des Lebih baik Sama Lebih buruk Tidak tahu Sumber: LSI, SMRC, Indikator Kecenderungan secara umum masih positif. Nasional, Maret 2018 | 12 Apakah Ibu/Bapak melihat keadaan ekonomi NASIONAL pada umumnya dalam SETAHUN KE DEPAN menjadi jauh lebih buruk, lebih buruk, tidak ada perubahan, lebih baik, atau jauh lebih baik dibanding keadaan SEKARANG INI? … (%) 60 50,6 50 40 30 23,5 20 13,2 10 4,9 7,1 0,7 0 Jauh lebih buruk Lebih Buruk Tidak ada Lebih Baik Jauh lebih baik Tidak perubahan tahu/jawab Ekspektasi atas kondisi ekonomi nasional setahun ke depan akan lebih positif. Survei Nasional, Maret 2018 | 13 Kondisi Politik Secara Nasional Sekarang (%) Bagaimana Ibu/Bapak melihat keadaan politik nasional sekarang? Sangat baik, baik, sedang, buruk atau sangat buruk? … (%) 40 38 35 30,7 30 25 20 16,2 15 12 10 5 1,5 1,5 0 Sangat Baik Baik Sedang Buruk Sangat Buruk Tidak tahu/tidak jawab Lebih banyak yang menilai positif ketimbang yang menilai negatif. Survei Nasional, Maret 2018 | 14 50 42 40 40 39 39 39 40 38 38 37 38 38 38 40 37 37 37 37 37 36 36 37 37 36 36 36 36 36 36 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 33 33 32 32 32 32 32 33 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 30 30 30 30 31 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 28 28 28 27 28 28 28 28 28 30 27 27 27 27 27 26 26 27 26 27 25 26 25 25 24 24 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 22 21 22 21 21 20 21 19 19 19 18 18 18 20 17 17 17 17 15 15 14 14 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 8 8 8 10 7 0 Jul'09 Mrt'14 Jul'14 Mrt'18 Okt'08 Apr'09 Okt'10 Mei'11 Apr'13 Okt'13 Apr'14 Mei'14 Okt'14 Okt'15 Apr'16 Mar'09 Jan'10 Mar'10 Mar'13 Jan'14 Jan'15 Mar'16 Ags'16 Sep'04 Sep'06 Sep'07 Sep'08 Des'08 Feb'09 Aug'10 Des'10 Juli'11 Des'11 Feb'12 Sep'12 Des'12 Des'13 Jun'14 Jun'15 Des'15 Jun'16 Sep' 05 Sept'17 April' 04 Baik Sedang Buruk Tidak tahu Sumber: LSI, SMRC, Indikator Kecenderungan persepsi positif masih terus terjadi.
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