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Complex Adaptive Systems Complex Adaptive systems GRS-21306 Introduction Arnold Bregt Introduction Shrimp farming in Vietnam Mekong Delta, Vietnam Different systems for Shrimp farming Extensive Different systems for Shrimp farming Improved Extensive Different systems for Shrimp farming Intensive Source: Michiel Oliemans Different systems for shrimp farming Integrated Mangrove Shrimp Source: Michiel Oliemans Two Communes in Vietnam Mekong Delta Interviews and participatory mapping Similar conditions different developments Characteristics Differences Number of households: 1825 vs 1443 One commune -> intensive shrimps without Bio-physical condition's trees. comparable Other commune-> mixed Development towards systems with mangroves intensive shrimp Reflection Initial conditions Interactions between farmers and role of hero’s Sequence of activities Adaptive capacity of all stakeholders With as a result Different emergent behaviour of these two communes Example of a complex adaptive system: Interactions between agents Sensitive to initial conditions Path dependency Open systems Adaptive behaviour of agents Contents Presentation System thinking in Wageningen Complex adaptive systems Complex adaptive systems and SDI Scientific schools Reductionism ( e.g. Rene Descartes) components Holism (e.g. Aristotle) system Question What is the science view approach in Wageningen? Thinking in systems is popular, e.g Climate system Agricultural system Transport system Social system System thinking System consists of: Components Relation between components Boundary Systems are human constructs Framing systems Non-linear relations Social & Bio-physical/technical Bio-physical components components Linear relations Framing systems Complex Complex Systems Adaptive Systems “Simple” Adaptive Systems Systems Simple Systems Characteristics: Falling ball A few components Closed systems Well defined interactions Behaviour: Predictable Adaptive systems Driving a car Characteristics: Respond to changes in the environment Feedback loops Behaviour: Respond in predictable way Complex systems Land sliding Characteristics: Interaction between components non-linear Feedback loops Tipping points Behaviour: Sudden, emerging events Complex adaptive systems Land-use system Characteristics: Multi level Open systems Non-linear interaction Learning Behaviour: “Dynamic stability” Emergence Scientific publications (Scopus, 2-12-2015) Complex Systems Complex Adaptive Systems # 45,666 # 2,473 “Simple” Systems Adaptive Systems # 11,846,235 # 24,276 Question Can you give examples of pro’s and con’s of both approaches? Reflection The focus of science is on a “simple” system description of the real world Understandable from both a science and human point of view: Ockham's razor heuristic Reductionism Bias for linear cause-effect relations Our mind likes to simplify (Kahneman) Kahneman, thinking fast and slow Reflection But, our real-world problems are not simple. Quite often they have: Many components, with partly unknown relations Adaptation takes place History (path) is important Open But How? Complex adaptive system (CAS) view: Theory is relative young (1990, Santa Fe) No consensus on definitions, characteristics Interdisciplinary field CAS in practice: Last 10 years Agent-based modelling (ABM) Design principles Complex Adaptive System Complex Adaptive System is a dynamic network of many agents (which may represent cells, species, individuals, firms, nations) acting in parallel and constantly, and reacting to what the other agents are doing (Waldrop, 1992). Complex adaptive system Source: Complexity systems institute Publications Scopus, 2016 Complex Adaptive Ssystem Scopus, 2016 CAS Features Components Complexity Sensitive to initial conditions Openness Unpredictability (Scale independence) CAS behaviours Adaptability Self organization Non-linear behaviour Feedback loop mechanism Adaptability Example: Self organization Non-linear behaviour Feedback loop CAS as a research topic CAS application in Wageningen CAS is the concept/ theory ABM (Agent Based Modelling) is the implementation) An example application An example of CAS in practice H. Meyer, A. Bregt, E. Dammers, J. Edelenbos, 2014 (NL) 2015 (Eng) The Dutch South-west delta A detailed actor and interaction analysis Historical analysis (path dependency) Scenario analysis Actor interaction Towards a Robust, Adaptive Framework Flood defence is not a dike, but a zone Towards a resilient and adaptive urbanized delta Complex adaptive systems and SDI Hypothesis: CAS characteristics and behaviors can also be found in SDIs. Dutch SDI Structure of SDI of Flanders (Part of belgium) SDI as CAS (assignment) Please read the article from your reader “Spatial Data Infrastructures as Complex Adaptive Systems” and analyze your SDI case using the 10 features and behaviours mentioned in this article. .
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