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Building Scenarios of Adaptive Capacity: a Case Study Of The Pennsylvania State University The Graduate School College of Earth and Mineral Sciences BUILDING SCENARIOS OF ADAPTIVE CAPACITY: A CASE STUDY OF COMMUNITY WATER SYSTEMS IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA A Dissertation in Geography by Jessica Chenault Whitehead 2009 Jessica Chenault Whitehead Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy August 2009 The dissertation of Jessica Chenault Whitehead was reviewed and approved* by the following: Brent Yarnal Professor of Geography and Associate Head of the Department of Geography Dissertation Advisor Chair of Committee C. Gregory Knight Professor of Geography Robert G. Crane Professor of Geography and Director of AESDA James S. Shortle Distinguished Professor of Agricultural and Environmental Economics and Director of the Environment and Natural Resources Institute Karl Zimmerer Professor of Geography Head of the Department of Geography *Signatures are on file in the Graduate School iii ABSTRACT Approximately 83 percent of the estimated 52,000 community water systems (CWS) in the United States serve fewer than 3,300 people. In the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, about 945,000 people receive their drinking water from smaller CWS, and the CWS of Centre County provide an excellent example of small, rural systems with low human capital, changing regulatory demands, and aging infrastructure. With resources already stretched, it may be difficult for CWS managers to adapt to the impacts of future climate change. The purpose of this dissertation is to study Centre County CWS managers’ perceptions of their systems’ capacities to adapt to more frequent floods and droughts. Results from nine interviews with Centre County CWS managers and from managers’ social network maps revealed that these managers are limited in their availability to raise funds, comply with water quality regulations, and upgrade system technology. Some managers of small, rural systems compensate for scarce human capital and financial resources by taking advantage of layered social and institutional capital. One of these systems is the Gregg Township Water Authority (GTWA). In a series of mediated modeling focus groups, GTWA members and stakeholders helped to build a scenario generator that allows CWS managers to explore their potential adaptive capacities. The system dynamics-based Community Water System - Future Adaptive Capacity Scenario (CWS-FACS) generator allows managers to explore how system management variables change under five climate scenarios and three growth rate scenarios. The sample scenarios presented to the GTWA suggested that the system’s financial adaptive capacity is low and the stress on the system from a lack of financial resources may be greater than the climate-related stress. Despite this result, managers remained concerned about climate change and found the scenario results to be plausible and consistent. They also valued the model’s flexibility and its utility as a learning tool for climate and other influences affecting their system’s management. Ultimately, these results indicate that mediated modeling and system dynamics are effective approaches for making climate information relevant to resource managers. The methodology can be transferred to other sectors and regions, making it useful for climate extension and outreach programming. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................vi LIST OF TABLES...................................................................................................................vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.....................................................................................................viii Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................1 Previous Central Pennsylvania CWS Research ...............................................................7 CWS Managers and Climate Forecasts....................................................................9 Perceived CWS Vulnerability ..................................................................................9 CWS Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity..................................................................11 Purpose.............................................................................................................................13 Methods............................................................................................................................14 Dissertation Structure.......................................................................................................16 Chapter 2 Social capital, institutional capital, and rural drinking water management in Central Pennsylvania........................................................................................................18 Literature Review.............................................................................................................21 Social and Institutional Capital ................................................................................21 Social Capital, Institutional Capital, and Natural Resource Management ...............28 Drinking Water Management in Centre County, Pennsylvania.......................................29 Routine Operational Concerns .................................................................................31 Norms and Trust.......................................................................................................32 Social Networks .......................................................................................................34 Discussion and Conclusions.............................................................................................40 Chapter 3 Using modified mediated modeling to assess small drinking water systems’ abilities to adapt to climatic change and variation ...........................................................43 Focusing on Small System Adaptive Capacity ................................................................45 Mediated Modeling ..................................................................................................48 Case Study........................................................................................................................50 Case Study System Characteristics ..........................................................................50 Model Construction..................................................................................................52 v Discussion ........................................................................................................................67 Sensitivity Analysis..................................................................................................67 Validation.................................................................................................................68 Limitations ...............................................................................................................68 Conclusions......................................................................................................................69 Chapter 4 Promoting preparedness through learning: A process for community drinking water systems to explore climate change adaptive capacity ............................................71 Literature Review.............................................................................................................75 Adaptive Capacity Measurement .............................................................................75 Using Scenarios to Investigate Adaptive Capacity ..................................................78 Adaptive Capacity Assessments in Water Management..........................................81 Drinking Water in Central Pennsylvania..................................................................82 Methodology ....................................................................................................................84 Case Study CWS: Gregg Township Water Authority..............................................84 Results..............................................................................................................................91 Case Study CWS Adaptive Capacity .......................................................................91 Participants’ Responses to Adaptive Capacity Scenarios ........................................95 Discussion ........................................................................................................................97 Conclusions......................................................................................................................100 Chapter 5 Lessons learned and future directions ....................................................................102 Summary of Research Findings .......................................................................................103 Significance......................................................................................................................107 Future Research................................................................................................................109 Appendix A Community Water System (CWS) Interview Guide..........................................112 Appendix B Scenario-building Focus Group Guides .............................................................116 Appendix C CWS-FACS Model Equations
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