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Egypt: Towards Democratic Elections International Peace Institute with Charney Research New York, NY June 2011 Executive Summary • Egypt’s optimism wanes as economic and security concerns mount, with security worries greatest in Cairo and Fayoum. • The Army and the judiciary still enjoy widespread popularity. • Sharaf, Moussa, and Tantawi are the most popular political figures, with Moussa well ahead on the presidential vote. • Likely turnout is high country-wide but below-average in Cairo and among women, especially older women. • Wafd and Brotherhood still lead for People’s Assembly, but older parties besides MB have lost votes and “don’t knows” risen as many little- known new parties emerged. • Secular parties lead religious parties among voters with preferences, and Salafists are weak, but half expressed no party preference. • Most don’t knows have never voted, know little of parties, so voter education needs are big. • Moussa leads across all regions, while Wafd is strongest in Nile Delta and Canal Zone, MB in Fayoum and Coast. International Peace Institute 2 with Charney Research Egyptians’ mood remains optimistic, but less as economic and security concerns have increased. Generally speaking, do you think things in Egypt are going in the right direction or Biggest National Problem wrong direction? 100% 82% 80% • 61% • 60% 50% • 39% 40% • 27% • 20% 10% 0% 2008 March 2011 June 2011 Right direction Wrong direction Q. 3,4; Charney March 2011, International Peace Institute 3 Charney 2008 with Charney Research Security concerns significantly higher in Fayoum and Greater Cairo, demonstrations in the Suez Canal Zone and the Coast. In your view, what is the biggest problem facing Egypt? Suez South Greater Central Coastal Canal Fayoum Upper Cairo Nile Delta Regions Zone Egypt Economy 58% 60% 63% 22% 51% 61% Demonstrations 10% 34% 15% 6% 18% 24% Security/crime 21% - 4% 26% 17% 6% Corruption 2% 2% 11% - 7% 1% International Peace Institute 4 Q. 4 with Charney Research Egyptian Army remains extremely popular, with its support for the revolution and security its strong points. Is your opinion of the Egyptian Army… Please explain your reasons behind your opinion? 94% 100% 90% 77% • 80% • 60% • 40% • • 20% 4% 5% • 0% 0% 2008 March 2011 June 2011 Favorable Unfavorable Q. 42, Charney March 2011, International Peace Institute 5 Charney 2008 with Charney Research Judiciary popularity remains solid, reflecting efforts for justice, though slowness and partiality worry some. Is your opinion of the Egyptian judiciary… Please explain your reasons behind your opinion? 100% 81% 76% • 80% 67% • 60% • 40% • 20% • 20% 8% 5% • 0% 2008 March 2011 June 2011 Favorable Unfavorable Q. 43, Charney March 2011, International Peace Institute 6 Charney 2008 with Charney Research Sharaf, Moussa and Tantawi most popular presidential possibilities; El- Baradei unpopular. Is your opinion of… Essam Sharaf Amr Moussa Mohammed Tantawi Ayman Nour Hamdeen Sabahi Hisham Bastawisi Magdi Hatata Mohammed el-Baradei Nomaan Gonaa Abdel Moneim Abul Futuh Buthayna Kamel Magdi Hussein International Peace Institute 7 Q. 6-15 with Charney Research Moussa remains frontrunner for President, with Sharaf and Tantawi second and third. If the Presidential election was held today and the candidates were… who would you vote for? 70% 60% 54% 50% 22% 40% 32% 30% 24% 16% 20% 20% 32% 13% 12% 9% 9% 10% 7% 16% 4% 4% 4% 8% 6% 4% 2% 11% 5% 2% 0% 3% 3% 2% 2% Moussa Sharaf Tantawi Bastawisi Nour Sabahi el-Baradei Hatata Other 1st choice 2nd choice International Peace Institute 8 Q. 22, 23 with Charney Research Vote intention is high across Egypt, but lowest in Greater Cairo and Delta. What are your chances of voting in the election – will you definitely vote, probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or do you think that you won’t vote? Showing “definitely vote” only 96% 93% 100% 94% 86% 80% 80% 72% 71% 60% 40% 20% 0% Total Coastal South Suez Canal Fayoum Central Nile Greater (Alexandria) Upper Zone Delta Cairo Egypt International Peace Institute 9 Q. 21 with Charney Research Definite turnout lower among women, particularly older and less educated, and previous non-voters. What are your chances of voting in the election – will you definitely vote, probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or do you think that you won’t vote? Showing “definitely vote” only 87% 90% 80% 73% 68% 64% 70% 61% 60% 50% 40% 28% 30% 20% 10% 0% Men Women Women over Women with Older Rural Never Voted 35 Prep School Women or Less International Peace Institute 10 Q. 21 with Charney Research Wafd and MB parties only ones known by majority; most new parties little known, while Salifis unpopular. Is your opinion of… Established parties previously in People’s Assembly New parties El Adala 72% Wafd 40% 19% 41% 15% 13% El Masreen Justice and El Ahrar 15% 12% 73% Freedom (MB) 31% 29% 39% El Wasat 15% 15% 70% El Gam'a Nasserist 24% 17% 59% El Islamia 12% 18% 70% Egyptian El Kamra 12% 14% 74% National 20% 20% 61% Misr El Hura Party (ex-NDP) (El Ashal) 12% 13% 75% Al Ghad 18% 24% 59% Nour 12% 30% 58% Misr El Horria 8% 13% 79% Tagammu 16% 21% 63% (Hamzawy) Al Gabha 7%13% 80% Democratic Umma 13% 16% 71% The Egyptian 5%13% 82% Mainstream 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know International Peace Institute 11 Q. 24-30, 41 with Charney Research Wafd and MB still lead, but party proliferation shrinks old parties, increases uncertainty. If the People’s Assembly election was held today…who would you vote for? March 2011 June 2011 Refused Refused Don't Don't Tagammu, 2% know know Other 35% 49% Al Ghad 3% 2% Umma Other 8% 3% New Parties, 14% Tagammu, NDP 1% 10% Nasserist, MB Wafd 4% Wafd 12% Egypt Nat’l 23% Justice and 12% Party Freedom (ex-NDP) (MB), 12% 6% International Peace Institute 12 Q. 41, Charney March 2011 with Charney Research Secular parties lead religious ones among voters expressing a voting choice. Party vote by ideology International Peace Institute 13 Q. 41 with Charney Research The “don’t knows” are new voters unfamiliar with the parties, pointing to massive voter education needs. Did you vote in the 2005 People’s Assembly election? Percent who don’t know (Those who don’t know 2011 People’s Assembly vote the given party or parties in each group choice only) 100% 93% 100% 79% 85% 80% 72% 74% 80% 69% 63% 60% 60% 41% 39% 40% 40% 19% 20% 20% 0% 0% Yes No Wafd Party Justice and Other New Freedom established parties Party (MB) parties Don't know vote All voters International Peace Institute 14 Q. 41, 44, 24-40 with Charney Research Moussa has a strong lead across the country ; Wafd leads in Canal Zone and Delta, MB in Fayoum and Coast. Greater Suez Central Fayoum South Coastal Cairo Canal Nile Upper Regions Zone Delta Egypt Moussa Presidential Sharaf Vote Leaders Tantawi Wafd Party Justice and Freedom Party (MB) Egypt National Party International Peace Institute 15 Q.21, 41, 51 with Charney Research Both Barack Obama and Mahmoud Ahmedinejad remain unpopular in post-revolutionary Egypt. Is your opinion of… Obama Favorability Mahmoud Ahmedinejad Favorability 25% 25% 25% 21% 18% 20% 20% 15% 15% 12% 10% 10% 5% 5% 5% 0% 0% 2008 2011 2008 2009 2011 Q. 18, 20, Charney 2008, International Peace Institute 16 Greenburg 2009 with Charney Research Osama bin Laden had far more appeal to the Egyptian public than his surviving deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Is your opinion of… Confidence in Osama bin Laden Ayman al-Zawahiri Favorability 25% 21% 25% 18% 20% 20% 15% 15% 11% 8% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 2008 2011 2008 2011 International Peace Institute 17 Q. 19, Charney 2008, Pew with Charney Research Methodology • We conducted 800 face-to-face interviews in Egypt between May 30 and June 4, 2011. • Respondents were a representative random sample of the Egyptian adult population. The results are weighted to match Egypt’s demographics. • The margin of error was +/- 4%. • Egypt was divided into six regions (Greater Cairo, Suez Canal, Central Nile Delta, Fayoum, South/ Upper Egypt and Costal) to permit regional analysis. • The interviewing was carried out by the Egyptian Research and Training Center (ERTC). • The survey was managed by Sean Michael Flowers and this report was written by Craig Charney, Sean Michael Flowers, Benjamin Novak, and Arshbir Ghuman. International Peace Institute 18 with Charney Research.
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