“Why Did MH17 Crash?” Blame Attribution, Television News and Public Opinion in Southeastern Ukraine, Crimea and the De Facto States of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria GEOPOLITICS published in Vol 23, no. 4, 2018: 882-896 Gerard Toal School of Public and International Affairs Virginia Tech, National Capital Region Alexandria, VA 22314
[email protected] & John O’Loughlin Institute of Behavioral Science University of Colorado-Boulder Boulder, CO 80309
[email protected] 1 ABSTRACT Shock events are often pivotal moment in geopolitics, and objects of intense disagreement among conflicting parties. This paper examines the downing of a Malaysian Airlines passenger jet over eastern Ukraine in July 2014 and the divergent blame storylines produced on Russian and Ukrainian television about the event. It then examines results of a question asking why did MH17 crash in a simultaneous survey conducted in December 2014 in six oblasts in Southeastern Ukraine, Crimea, and the de facto states of AbkhaZia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria. Analysis of the surveys shows that blame attribution was driven more by television viewing habits than any other factor. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research was supported by a RAPID [grant 14-1442646] from the US National Science Foundation for the project “Attitudes and Beliefs in the Russian-Supported ‘de facto’ States and in South-east Ukraine in the Wake of the Crimean Annexation.” The authors wish to thank Natalia Kharchenko and Volodymyr Paniotto of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), and Alexei GraZdankin of the Levada Center, for their cooperation in the refinement of the survey questionaire and their subsequent supervision and professional administration of the survey in multiple locations in late 2014.