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Trump Success? Conventional Measures in the Era of an Unconventional President
Trump Success? Conventional Measures in the Era of an Unconventional President Jon R. Bond Texas A&M University [email protected] and Manny Teodoro Texas A&M University [email protected] Prepared for Presentation at the 115th Annual Meeting & Exhibition of the American Political Science Association August 29 – September 1, 2019 Washington, DC Trump Success? Conventional Measures in the Era of an Unconventional President Abstract Conventional indicators reported in CQ’s 2017 Presidential Support Study show that President Trump racked up a “Record Success Rate”, winning 100 percent of House votes on which he expressed a position. Although presidency scholars have long recognized that winning roll call votes is not an indication of presidential influence, Trump’s unconventional style and his willful ignorance of Congress and basic details of the policies he “supports” lead us to question whether the results of roll call votes should even be interpreted as presidential success. Including this unconventional president in the study of a still small n of presidents requires innovative indicators that do not rely exclusively on traditional Presidential Support Scores that compare members on a static zero to 100 scale. Taking cues from FiveThirtyEight and from the field of sabermetrics, this paper presents two novel metrics that estimate whether House members’ support for the 11 elected presidents from Eisenhower to Trump is higher or lower than should be expected relative to differing political conditions. One metric, Support Above Expectations (SAE), estimates whether members’ presidential support is higher or lower than should be expected given electoral conditions, partisanship, polarization. This metric builds on 538’s “Trump plus-minus” score. -
H. Doc. 108-222
EIGHTY-FIRST CONGRESS JANUARY 3, 1949, TO JANUARY 3, 1951 FIRST SESSION—January 3, 1949, to October 19, 1949 SECOND SESSION—January 3, 1950, to January 2, 1951 VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES—ALBEN W. BARKLEY, of Kentucky PRESIDENT PRO TEMPORE OF THE SENATE—KENNETH D. MCKELLAR, 1 of Tennessee SECRETARY OF THE SENATE—LESLIE L. BIFFLE, 1 of Arkansas SERGEANT AT ARMS OF THE SENATE—JOSEPH C. DUKE, 1 of Arizona SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES—SAM RAYBURN, 1 of Texas CLERK OF THE HOUSE—RALPH R. ROBERTS, 1 of Indiana SERGEANT AT ARMS OF THE HOUSE—JOSEPH H. CALLAHAN, 1 of Kentucky DOORKEEPER OF THE HOUSE—WILLIAM M. MILLER, 1 of Mississippi POSTMASTER OF THE HOUSE—FINIS E. SCOTT, 1 of Tennessee ALABAMA Wilbur D. Mills, Kensett Helen Gahagan Douglas, Los SENATORS James W. Trimble, Berryville Angeles Lister Hill, Montgomery Boyd Tackett, Nashville Gordon L. McDonough, Los Angeles John J. Sparkman, Huntsville Brooks Hays, Little Rock Donald L. Jackson, Santa Monica Cecil R. King, Los Angeles REPRESENTATIVES W. F. Norrell, Monticello Oren Harris, El Dorado Clyde Doyle, Long Beach Frank W. Boykin, Mobile Chet Holifield, Montebello George M. Grant, Troy CALIFORNIA Carl Hinshaw, Pasadena George W. Andrews, Union Springs SENATORS Harry R. Sheppard, Yucaipa Sam Hobbs, Selma Albert Rains, Gadsden Sheridan Downey, 2 San Francisco John Phillips, Banning Edward deGraffenried, Tuscaloosa Richard M. Nixon, 3 Whittier Clinton D. McKinnon, San Diego Carl Elliott, Jasper William F. Knowland, Piedmont COLORADO Robert E. Jones, Jr., Scottsboro REPRESENTATIVES SENATORS Laurie C. Battle, Birmingham Hubert B. Scudder, Sebastopol Clair Engle, Red Bluff Edwin C. -
October Term, 1953
: : I JU«^k> £j£ OCTOBER TERM, 1953 STATISTICS Miscella- Original Appellate Total neous Number of cases on dockets 11 815 637 1, 463 Cases disposed of__ 0 694 609 1,303 Remaining on dockets __ 11 121 28 160 Cases disposed of—Appellate Docket By written opinions 84 By per curiam opinions 86 By motion to dismiss or per stipulation (merit cases) 2 By denial or dismissal of petitions for certiorari 522 Cases disposed of—Miscellaneous Docket By written opinion 0 By per curiam opinion 0 By denial or dismissal of petitions for certiorari 507 By denial or withdrawal of other applications 92 By transfer to Appellate Docket 10 Number of written opinions 65 Number of printed per curiam opinions 11 Number of petitions for certiorari granted 88 Number of appeals in which jurisdiction was noted or post- poned 31 Number of admissions to bar (133 admitted April 26) 1, 557 REFERENCE INDEX Page Court convened October 5. (President Eisenhower attended.) Vinson, C. J., death of (Sept. 8, 1953) announced- 1 Warren, C. J., commission (recess appointment) read and oath taken (Oct. permanent 5, 1953) ; commission recorded and oath taken March 20, 1954, filed 1, 181 Statement by Chief Justice as to his nonparticipation in mat- ters considered at first conference 6 Reed, J., temporarily assigned to Second Circuit 204 Herbert Brownell, Jr., Attorney General, presented 2 269533—54 71 : n Pag* Simon E. Sobeloff, Solicitor General, presented 150 Allotment of Justices 28 Attorney Change of name 147 Withdrawal of membership (Roscoe B. Stephenson) 235 Counsel appointed (121) 4 Special Master—pleadings referred to. -
K:\Fm Andrew\81 to 90\86.Xml
EIGHTY-SIXTH CONGRESS JANUARY 3, 1959, TO JANUARY 3, 1961 FIRST SESSION—January 7, 1959, 1 to September 15, 1959 SECOND SESSION—January 6, 1960, 2 to September 1, 1960 VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES—RICHARD M. NIXON, of California PRESIDENT PRO TEMPORE OF THE SENATE—CARL HAYDEN, of Arizona SECRETARY OF THE SENATE—FELTON MCLELLAN JOHNSTON, of Mississippi SERGEANT AT ARMS OF THE SENATE—JOSEPH C. DUKE, of Arizona SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES—SAM RAYBURN, 3 of Texas CLERK OF THE HOUSE—RALPH R. ROBERTS, 3 of Indiana SERGEANT AT ARMS OF THE HOUSE—ZEAKE W. JOHNSON, JR., 3 of Tennessee DOORKEEPER OF THE HOUSE—WILLIAM M. MILLER, 3 of Mississippi POSTMASTER OF THE HOUSE—H. H. MORRIS, 3 of Kentucky ALABAMA Stewart L. Udall, Tucson J. Arthur Younger, San Mateo SENATORS Charles S. Gubser, Gilroy John J. McFall, Manteca Lister Hill, Montgomery ARKANSAS B. F. Sisk, Fresno John J. Sparkman, Huntsville SENATORS Charles M. Teague, Ojai REPRESENTATIVES John L. McClellan, Camden Harlan Hagen, Hanford Frank W. Boykin, Mobile J. William Fulbright, Fayetteville Gordon L. McDonough, Los Angeles George M. Grant, Troy REPRESENTATIVES Donald L. Jackson, Pacific Palisades George W. Andrews, Union Springs E. C. Gathings, West Memphis Cecil R. King, Los Angeles Kenneth A. Roberts, Anniston Wilbur D. Mills, Kensett Craig Hosmer, Long Beach Albert Rains, Gadsden James W. Trimble, Berryville Chet Holifield, Montebello Armistead I. Selden, Jr., Greensboro Oren Harris, El Dorado H. Allen Smith, Glendale Carl Elliott, Jasper 8 Edgar W. Hiestand, Burbank Robert E. Jones, Scottsboro Dale Alford, Little Rock W. F. -
H. Doc. 108-222
EIGHTY-FOURTH CONGRESS JANUARY 3, 1955, TO JANUARY 3, 1957 FIRST SESSION—January 5, 1955, 1 to August 2, 1955 SECOND SESSION—January 3, 1956, to July 27, 1956 VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES—RICHARD M. NIXON, of California PRESIDENT PRO TEMPORE OF THE SENATE—WALTER F. GEORGE, 2 of Georgia SECRETARY OF THE SENATE—FELTON MCLELLAN JOHNSTON, 2 of Mississippi SERGEANT AT ARMS OF THE SENATE—JOSEPH C. DUKE, 2 of Arizona SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES—SAM RAYBURN, 2 of Texas CLERK OF THE HOUSE—RALPH R. ROBERTS, 2 of Indiana SERGEANT AT ARMS OF THE HOUSE—ZEAKE W. JOHNSON, JR., 2 of Tennessee DOORKEEPER OF THE HOUSE—WILLIAM M. MILLER, 2 of Mississippi POSTMASTER OF THE HOUSE—H. H. MORRIS, 2 of Kentucky ALABAMA Wilbur D. Mills, Kensett Carl Hinshaw, 3 Pasadena SENATORS James W. Trimble, Berryville Edgar W. Hiestand, Altadena Oren Harris, El Dorado Lister Hill, Montgomery Joe Holt, Van Nuys John J. Sparkman, Huntsville Brooks Hays, Little Rock Clyde Doyle, South Gate W. F. Norrell, Monticello Glenard P. Lipscomb, Los Angeles REPRESENTATIVES Patrick J. Hillings, Arcadia Frank W. Boykin, Mobile CALIFORNIA James Roosevelt, Los Angeles George M. Grant, Troy SENATORS Harry R. Sheppard, Yucaipa George W. Andrews, Union Springs William F. Knowland, Piedmont James B. Utt, Santa Ana Kenneth A. Roberts, Anniston Thomas H. Kuchel, Anaheim John Phillips, Banning Albert Rains, Gadsden REPRESENTATIVES Bob Wilson, Chula Vista Armistead I. Selden, Jr., Greensboro Hubert B. Scudder, Sebastopol Carl Elliott, Jasper COLORADO Robert E. Jones, Scottsboro Clair Engle, Red Bluff SENATORS George Huddleston, Jr., Birmingham John E. -
H. Doc. 108-222
EIGHTY-FIFTH CONGRESS JANUARY 3, 1957, TO JANUARY 3, 1959 FIRST SESSION—January 3, 1957, to August 30, 1957 SECOND SESSION—January 7, 1958, 1 to August 24, 1958 VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES—RICHARD M. NIXON, of California PRESIDENT PRO TEMPORE OF THE SENATE—CARL HAYDEN, 2 of Arizona SECRETARY OF THE SENATE—FELTON MCLELLAN JOHNSTON, 3 of Mississippi SERGEANT AT ARMS OF THE SENATE—JOSEPH C. DUKE, 3 of Arizona SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES—SAM RAYBURN, 3 of Texas CLERK OF THE HOUSE—RALPH R. ROBERTS, 3 of Indiana SERGEANT AT ARMS OF THE HOUSE—ZEAKE W. JOHNSON, JR., 3 of Tennessee DOORKEEPER OF THE HOUSE—WILLIAM M. MILLER, 3 of Mississippi POSTMASTER OF THE HOUSE—H. H. MORRIS, 3 of Kentucky ALABAMA J. William Fulbright, Fayetteville Donald L. Jackson, Pacific REPRESENTATIVES Palisades SENATORS E. C. Gathings, West Memphis Cecil R. King, Los Angeles Lister Hill, Montgomery Craig Hosmer, Long Beach John J. Sparkman, Huntsville Wilbur D. Mills, Kensett James W. Trimble, Berryville Chet Holifield, Montebello REPRESENTATIVES Oren Harris, El Dorado H. Allen Smith, Glendale Frank W. Boykin, Mobile Brooks Hays, Little Rock Edgar W. Hiestand, Altadena George M. Grant, Troy W. F. Norrell, Monticello Joe Holt, Van Nuys George W. Andrews, Union Springs Clyde Doyle, South Gate Kenneth A. Roberts, Anniston CALIFORNIA Glenard P. Lipscomb, Los Angeles Albert Rains, Gadsden SENATORS Patrick J. Hillings, Arcadia Armistead I. Selden, Jr., William F. Knowland, Piedmont James Roosevelt, Los Angeles Greensboro Thomas H. Kuchel, Anaheim Harry R. Sheppard, Yucaipa Carl Elliott, Jasper REPRESENTATIVES James B. Utt, Santa Ana D. -
HON. JOHN W. Mccormack Probably, That Experience Which Makes Me a Orwell's Nightmare Has Become a Reality
9040 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD- HOUSE May 25 and the Congress of the United States to ap By Mr. MONAGAN: pension bill; to the Committee on Veterans' propriate funds for the improvement of the H.R. 7366. A bill for the relief of Benjamin :Affairs. harbors at Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas, and Esteves Miranda; to the Committee on the 196. By Mr. REUSS: Petition of the Wis Christiansted, St. Croix, V.I., of the United Judiciary. consin Public Welfare Association in favor States; to the Committee on Appropriations. By Mr. PIRNIE: of uniform residence requirements, by all of H.R. 7367. A bill for the relief of Chieko the States in the Union, for any of the aids Sakano; to the Committee on the Judiciary. under the social security program; to the PRIVATE BILLS AND RESOLUTIONS By Mr. WALTER: Committee on Ways and Means. H. Con. Res.186. Concurrent resolution fa 197. By the SPEAKER: Petition of Ronald Under claU.se 1 of rule XXII, private voring the granting of the status of perma A. Coco, president, Kiwansis Club of Baton bills and resolutions were introduced and nent residence to certain aliens; to the Com Rouge, Inc., Baton Rouge, La., requesting severally referred as follows: mittee on the Judiciary. that yearly expenditures are limited to yearly By Mr. ANDERSON of Montana: income; prevent any further increases in the H.R. 7362. A bill for the relief of the Crum Federal debt, and not to adopt any new McKinnon Building Co., of Billings, Mont.; to PETITIONS, ETC. Federal taxes, etc.; to the Committee on the Committee on Government Operations. -
White House Special Files Box 2 Folder 22
Richard Nixon Presidential Library White House Special Files Collection Folder List Box Number Folder Number Document Date Document Type Document Description 2 22 N.D. Other Document Resservation for a luncheon at the Caucus Room of the Old Senate Office Building. 1 pg. 2 22 12/03/1970 Other Document Tentative Agenda for a meeting in the Caucus Room of the Old Senate Office Building. 1 pg. 2 22 N.D. Other Document Slip of paper detailing information on a book to be authored by Justice Louis B. Heller of New York's Supreme Court. 1 pg. 2 22 N.D. Other Document Page detailing Former Members of Congress charter members. 2 pgs. 2 22 N.D. Brochure Former Members of Congress brochure. 2 pgs. 2 22 N.D. Other Document Card detailing RN's membership in the U.S. House of Representatives. 1 pg. Monday, October 19, 2009 Page 1 of 2 Box Number Folder Number Document Date Document Type Document Description 2 22 N.D. Other Document Copy of H.R. 20015. 1 pg. 2 22 N.D. Letter From Mark F. Werblood to RN regarding the Rapalllo Chapter of the Phi Alpha Dleta Law Fraternity, International. 1 pg. 2 22 01/14/1971 Other Document Envelope from the Phi Alpha Delta Law Fraternity to RN. 2 pgs. Monday, October 19, 2009 Page 2 of 2 " , Jt-'II~ 'j i' " RESE RVAT I ON ~L.J.Se reserv e on e pl ace f or ·me at t he l unc he on and gen ral me et in g t - :'C hC\~d Oi, hu rs ay, December 3, 1970 , at 11:45 a .m. -
Eighty-Third Congress January 3, 1953, to January 3, 1955
EIGHTY-THIRD CONGRESS JANUARY 3, 1953, TO JANUARY 3, 1955 FIRST SESSION—January 3, 1953, to August 3, 1953 SECOND SESSION—January 6, 1954, 1 to December 2, 1954 2 VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES—ALBEN W. BARKLEY, 3 of Kentucky; RICHARD M. NIXON, 4 of California PRESIDENT PRO TEMPORE OF THE SENATE—STYLES BRIDGES, 5 of New Hampshire SECRETARY OF THE SENATE—J. MARK TRICE, 5 of Maryland SERGEANT AT ARMS OF THE SENATE—FOREST A. HARNESS, 5 of Indiana SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES—JOSEPH W. MARTIN, JR., 5 of Massachusetts CLERK OF THE HOUSE—LYLE O. SNADER, 5 of Illinois SERGEANT AT ARMS OF THE HOUSE—WILLIAM F. RUSSELL, 6 of Pennsylvania; LYLE O. SNADER, 7 of Illinois; WILLIAM R. BONNELL, 8 of Pennsylvania DOORKEEPER OF THE HOUSE—TOM KENNAMER, 5 of Missouri POSTMASTER OF THE HOUSE—BEECHER HESS, 5 of Ohio ALABAMA J. William Fulbright, Fayetteville Harlan Hagen, Hanford SENATORS REPRESENTATIVES Gordon L. McDonough, Los Angeles Donald L. Jackson, Pacific Palisades Lister Hill, Montgomery E. C. Gathings, West Memphis Cecil R. King, Los Angeles John J. Sparkman, Huntsville Wilbur D. Mills, Kensett Craig Hosmer, Long Beach REPRESENTATIVES James W. Trimble, Berryville Oren Harris, El Dorado Chet Holifield, Montebello Frank W. Boykin, Mobile Brooks Hays, Little Rock Carl Hinshaw, Pasadena George M. Grant, Troy W. F. Norrell, Monticello Edgar W. Hiestand, Altadena George W. Andrews, Union Springs Joe Holt, Van Nuys Kenneth A. Roberts, Piedmont CALIFORNIA Clyde Doyle, South Gate 9 Albert Rains, Gadsden SENATORS Norris Poulson, Los Angeles Armistead I. Selden, Jr., Greensboro 10 William F. -
Stnmal', Marcii L, 19$'.J \Erian Chueh at A~Sta, Georgia
THE PRESII)DJT'• S APPOIITM.EMTS StnmAl', MARCii l, 19$'.J The President and Mrs. Eisenhower attend the Re1d Memorial. Preeby \erian Chueh at A~sta, Georgia. The Pr•sl.«lttnt, Mr''8. Ji;i._senhQwer and mem.ben •f the Preeident• s party arrived at tbe Washington National Airport at. 6,55 }'>:.m. astd. motored dircu:~l.1' to ~b.e \\'hite Bouse. PRESIDEft'S APPOIN'l'KENTS MONDA?, CH 2, 1953 8c.30 aa The Presi ent et with the gi l tive Leaders: The Vice Presid t Senator Robert A. Ta.ft, Ohio Senator Styles Bridges, Ne Hamp hire Senator William F. Knowland, California Senator en D. Milllkin, Colorado S ator Leverett Saltonstall, s chusetts Senator Hugh tler, Nebras Hon. Jo ph w. Martin, The Speaker Congresnan Charles A. Halleck, India Congres Leslie C. Arends, Illinois Gongres Ch unce;rw. Red, Illinois Honorable Sh rman Ad Maj. Gen. Wilton B. Persons (This is the us group, plus S nator tler ot ebraaka, and Congressman Reed, of Illinois, whose name wer dded b7 General Pereorus) 11:00 (Start M ting) 11130 onorable Robert Cutler, Adnd.nist.r t1v Assistant to th Pre ident Honorable J es s. Lay, Executive Secretary, National Securit7 Council (They will btle!' the Pr sident on the ational Sec it7 Council eeting s t. for Wedn - halt hour) 12:00 Honorabl Lewi L. Strauss (Former Member of Atomic En rgy Co ssion: Mr. Cutler arrang this ppoint ent.) 12:.30 pa H.R.H. Prine Fai , of Saudi Ar bi H.E. Sheikh A ad Al-F qih, The bas ador ot Saudi Ar bi Sheikh Ibrahia Suleiaan, Principal Assistant to the Prine•J also a M er ot the UN Delegation Sheikh Ali Ali s , InterpreterJ al.so H er of th ml Delegation Honorable John • Sinmon , Chief, Division of Protocol, Department of st te A. -
4&4*2114- Fu-A
DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE NATIONALITIES DIVISION Hon. JOhn M. Bailey 192(*5t52**368Eilkx**1 1730 "K" Street, N. W. WASHINGTON 6, D. C. 60 EAST 42No STREET CHAIRMAN NEW YORK 17. N. Y. ROBERT F. KENNEDY MURRAY HILL 5-4692 CAMPAIGN MANAGER MURRAY HILL 7-5257 NATIONAL-ITIES DIVISION SEN. THEODORE F. GREEN Sen:ONHutreFER,Zmphrey JUOXXOOMEZDSKOCtm929[027r 1961 CHAIRMAN June 26, HERBERT H. LEHMAN DEPUTY CHAIRMAN JOHN W. GIBSON JULIUS C. C. EDELSTEIN EXECUTIVE VICE CHAIRMEN JetmjESXQ//06905dk Dr. Hector Garcia EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR 3024 Morgan JAMES H. SHELDON Corpus Chrifti, Texas PUBLIC RELATIONS DIRECTOR ALFRED J. MARROW PROGRAM DIRECTOR Dear Dr. Ga,rcia: VICE CHAIRMEN U. S. SENATORS: We are in the process of bringing our Nationalitie s CLINTON P. ANDERSON, N. M. Division organization and letterhead up-to-date, and will JOHN O. PASTORE, R. 1. consider it an honor if you will indicate your consent to U. S. REPRESENTATIVES: continue with us in the services which the Division is T. M. MACHROWICZ, MICH. JOSEPH M. MONTOYA, N. M. rendering to the Democratic Party. HENRY S. REUSS, WIS. EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE We are anxious to have all Senators and Congress- GOVERNORS: men associated with any of the nationality groups serve JAMES T. BLAIR, JR., MO. as members of a Coordinating Committee for the Nation- RALPH G. BROOKS, NEBR. EDMUND G. BROWN, CALIF. alities Division, which will be consulted from time to JOHN BURROUGHS, N. MEX. time on all major policies, in close relationship with the LeROY COLLINS, FLA. officers of the Democratic National Committee. PRICE DANIEL, TEX. MICHAEL V. DiSALLE, OHIO GEORGE DOCKING, KANS. -
October Term, 1952
I OCTOBER TERM, 1952 STATISTICS Miscella- Original Appellate Total neous Number of cases on dockets 11 863 563 1, 437 Cases disposed of _ __ — _ 0 742 544 1, 286 Remaining on dockets. _ 11 121 19 151 Cases disposed of—Appellate Docket: By written opinions 122 By per curiam opinions 68 By motion to dismiss or per stipulation (merit cases) 11 By denial or dismissal of petitions for certiorari 541 Cases disposed of—Miscellaneous Docket: By written opinion 1 By per curiam opinions 3 By denial or dismissal of petitions for certiorari . 429 By denial or withdrawal of other applications 103 By transfer to Appellate Docket 8 Number of written opinions 104 Number of printed per curiam opinions 9 Number of petitions for certiorari granted 115 Number of appeals in which jurisdiction was noted or post- poned 34 Number of admissions to bar 1,210 REFERENCE INDEX Court convened October 6. President Eisenhower—Court recessed to attend inauguration -p age (Tuesday, Jan. 20) 129 James P. McGranery, Attorney General, presented 2 Walter J. Cummings, Jr., Solicitor General, presented 83 Mrs. William H. Clark, Sr. (mother of Mr. Justice Clark), death of, announced 113 Charles Elmore Cropley, Clerk, death of (June 17, 1952), announced 1 200218—53 86 II Pa Harold B. Willey, appointment as Clerk (Oct. 9, 1952) an- ^ nounced and effective October 13, 1952. Note.—The oath of office was administered by the Chief Justice in his chambers prior to the convening of Court October 13, in the presence of the Associate Justices and members of the Clerk's family.