EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Analyzing the Technical Barriers to Realizing the Hyperloop Christopher Robinson Lead Analyst: Senior Analyst Chad Goldberg Contributor: Research Associate Image Credit: SpaceX and Tesla Hyperloop patent filings 60 Executive Summary 50 40 An open-source white paper from Tesla and SpaceX Utility 30 engineers spurred interest in vacuum train technologies, Granted while the lure of a low-carbon long-range transit 20 Applied technology has further increased interest. In the full 10 report, we analyze the largest technical barriers Hyperloop 0 faces and identify key innovators in each area using patent 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 data and primary research, finding: • Hyperloop doesn’t need a fundamental technology Hyperloop patent filings breakthrough to be commercialized, and project 60 economics will be the biggest barrier to System and 50 commercialization. station 40 Pillar and tube • High-speed test tracks will be the most important 30 indicator of progress to watch, specifically ones that 20 Propulsion and enable higher speeds. 10 levitation Pod • A commercial passenger-carrying Hyperloop route is 0 unlikely to be built before 2040 and will need 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 considerable government support. 2 Client confidential. Not for redistribution. Since the industrial revolution, four primary modes of transit have emerged to move people and things around the world Rail Aviation Currently the fastest mode of transportation on land still Emerged at the dawn of the 20th century and was crucial in widely used for moving both people and goods, but with rapidly expanding access to long-distance travel little route flexibility Roads Marine Essential to modern travel, road networks allow vehicles to Used primarily to move goods rather than people; one of navigate the “last mile” for other modes with less route the first modes invented and enabled early intercontinental flexibility travel 3 Client confidential. Not for redistribution. All modes are facing a new challenge: decarbonization Innovations within each mode of transport continue to focus on a Eviation’s Alice electric aircraft is slated for release combination of faster transit, lower costs, and greater passenger comfort. in 2022 with a range of 750 miles – longer than Growing recognition of the emissions impact mobility has on climate any competitor, but still well short of many change is now posing a new challenge: How can transit be decarbonized? aviation routes. According to the IEA, transportation accounts for 24% of direct CO2 emissions from combustion. Advancements in affordable renewable power generation, electric motors, and battery technology have made decarbonizing personal vehicles feasible through a combination of hybrid and electric vehicles. Similarly, a push for electrifying or possibly adopting hydrogen fuel cells in rail technologies is possible. Electrifying air and marine technologies is significantly more challenging, as the range and energy density requirements are still outside of what battery technologies can provide. This challenge is forcing many to think of alternative strategies to decarbonize long-range transit. Image credit: Eviation 4 Client confidential. Not for redistribution. Global Hyperloop Startup Ecosystem 5 Client confidential. Not for redistribution. Propulsion and levitation: Systems that provide propulsion and support to the vehicles Pod design: Vehicles designed to operate in Hyperloop systems System and station Pillar and tube design: design: The operation of Hyperloop The enclosure that systems and design of maintains a vacuum stations to load and unload and guides the passengers or cargo vehicle 6 Image Credit: Hardt Hyperloop Client confidential. Not for redistribution. Using patent trends to understand innovation hot spots and key players in Hyperloop development In the years following the 2013 white paper, patent Hyperloop patent filings filings increased in technologies related to Hyperloop as 60 startups, student teams, and independent inventors all filed IP on the topic. Using Lux’s patent tools, a global 40 Utility search for patents that mentioned either “Hyperloop” or “vacuum train” was completed. We segmented patent 20 Granted filings according to the subsystems on the slide below as Applied well as categorizing them as “direct” or “indirect” in 0 terms of how they relate to Hyperloop. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 • Direct: These patents cover innovations that are directly related to Hyperloop, with little or no value to Hyperloop patent filings other technologies. 60 • Indirect: These patents cover innovations that could 50 be applied to Hyperloop technologies but are written 40 System and station so as to be relevant to other modes of transit or 30 Pillar and tube industries. 20 Propulsion and levitation 10 Pod 0 7 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Client confidential. Not for redistribution. SUBSYSTEM: PILLAR AND TUBE DESIGN Tubes in a partial vacuum enable the high speeds of Hyperloop, but also require the most innovation Technical challenges Leading Patent Filers • Minimizing leakage: Tube design is the crucial element that allows HYPERLOOP TECH INC* the train to operate in a low-pressure environment to achieve higher speeds. In a perfectly sealed system, pumps would only be required ZHANG YUE to pump down to a given pressure once. However, leakage is HYPERLOOP TRANSP TECHNOLOGIES INC inevitable, and periodic operation of pumps will also be needed to TATA STEEL NEDERLAND Publications maintain that vacuum. TECH B V Families • Minimizing costs: Pylons are the most commonly pursued tube ELECTRICWAZE LLC support design, as they allow the tube to move independent of the supports and are more resilient to earthquakes or expansion due to 0 5 10 temperatures changes. Aboveground construction is a lower-cost Hyperloop Relevance solution. Key Players Indirect 18% • HTT and VHO both pursue a strategy of ensuring all their IP is protected globally, resulting in many patents but on a limited number of families. Direct • Most companies, including leading tube IP filers Tata Steel and VHO, 82% are focused on higher-cost steel tubes. EuroTube focuses on lower- 8 cost concrete solutions that require additional sealants. * Hyperloop Tech is the former Client confidential. Not for redistribution. name of Virgin Hyperloop One SUBSYSTEM: PILLAR AND TUBE DESIGN Selection of Hyperloop tube pressure is the most important design choice impacting system costs Hyperloop projects will be optimized to minimize costs, and selecting Energy and tube designs are heavily related to the optimal pressure to operate under is crucial, as it impacts both the choice of pressure in a Hyperloop system, as operational costs (via energy consumption) and capital costs (via shown in NASA’s theoretical analysis below. tube design and construction). • Energy consumption from maintaining a vacuum is not well- understood currently due to a lack of operational data. In theory, the whole system needs to be pumped down only a single time, but in practice, inevitable leakages in the system will require additional energy to maintain a vacuum. • Energy consumption from propulsion increases linearly with pressure, as more energy is required to overcome drag at higher pressures. Most Hyperloop developers Lux interviewed focused on the range of 50 Pa to 250 Pa; higher pressures will likely see energy costs associated with propulsion increase, while below this range, the energy required to maintain vacuum dominates. The optimal system pressure will vary for each specific Hyperloop line. Source: “Conceptual Feasibility Study of the 9 Hyperloop Vehicle for Next-Generation Transport” Client confidential. Not for redistribution. Outlook Is Hyperloop technically feasible? Building a Hyperloop system today does not require any fundamental technical breakthroughs, but it will require extensive engineering and design efforts. The basic design of an oversized tube to avoid the need for a pod-mounted compressor and adapting maglev technologies for levitation and propulsion is feasible today. No companies have tested Hyperloop at the proposed speeds exceeding 750 mph, primarily due to a lack of large-enough testing tracks, and more challenges are likely to emerge as top speeds increase. Will Hyperloop be cost-effective? The issue of high costs is the most likely reason Hyperloop will fail. It is currently unclear how expensive Hyperloop will be, as early estimates were far too low and current project proposals are still increasing in average cost per mile, but it will come at a cost premium compared to high-speed rail. Cost per mile will also be geography- and project-specific, making a general cost-per-mile estimate of Hyperloop challenging to make. Based on this analysis, we expect the first passenger-carrying high-speed Hyperloop projects to begin operation by 2040 at the earliest. 10 Client confidential. Not for redistribution. Outlook Based on this analysis, we expect the first passenger-carrying high-speed Hyperloop projects to begin operation by 2040 at the earliest. We advise clients to watch for two key milestones that indicate Hyperloop is making progress toward commercialization: • Test tracks: This is the single most important milestone in advancing Hyperloop toward commercialization. Today’s test tracks are not able to test full-size Hyperloop systems at high speeds. Some tracks are too short and limit the maximum speed achievable, and others are smaller-diameter than would be needed for passenger-carrying systems. A test track long enough to allow pods to reach