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Addis Ababa Univers Ity School of Graduate Studies ADDIS ABABA UNIVERS ITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES DEPARTME NT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL RELAT IONS THE CURRENT INTERNAL POLITICAL DYNAMICS OF ETHIOPIA AND ITS ECONOMIC IMPACT IN THE HORN OF AFRICA BY NATNA EL TADE SSE AYE LE ADVIS OR: PROF. MERERA .G ADDIS ABABA, ETHIO PIA JUNE, 2019 THE CURREN T INTERNAL POLIT ICAL DYNAMICS OF ETHIOPIA AND ITS ECONOMIC IMPACT IN THE HORN OF AFRICA BY NATNAEL TADESSE AYELE A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES OF AAU IN PARTIA L FULFIL LME NTS OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTERS OF ARTS IN INTER NAT ION AL RELAT IONS AND DIPLO MAC Y ADVIS OR: PROF. MERERA. G. ADDIS ABABA UNIVERS ITY COLLE GE OF SOCIAL SCIENC ES SCHOO L OF GRADUAT E STUDIES DEPAR TME NT OF POLITIC AL SCIENC E AND INTERNA TIO NAL RELAT ION ADDIS ABABA UNIVERS ITY SCHOOL OF GRADUAT E STUDIE S DEPAR TME NT OF POLITICAL SCIENC E AND INTERNA TIO NAL RELAT ION S THE CURREN T INTERN AL POLIT ICAL DYNAMIC S OF ETHIOPIA AND ITS ECONOMIC IMPACT IN THE HORN OF AFRICA BY NATNA EL TADE SSE AYE LE Approved by the Board of Examiners Advisor Signature Date External Examiner Signature Date Internal Examiner Signature Date DECLARATION I, the undersigned, declare that this thesis is my original work and has not been presented for a degree in any other university and that sources of materials used for the thesis have been duly acknowledged. Natnael Tadesse June 2019 iv Acknowledgments First, above all, let be Glory to God Almighty for always being with me in all my life. Second my advisor, Professor. Merera Gudina. deserves my most honest and heartfelt appreciation and thanks for his scholarly and academic assistance, patience and willingness, which he is kind enough to offer me. Moreover, his prompt responses in the process of reading and commenting the draft script, his guidance, substantial advice, valuable comments and friendly approach that he enthusiastically provided have certainly shaped my thesis to embrace its current essence and structure. Third, my special heartfelt gratitude goes to my lovely wife Meseret Debas, care and sacrifice made me who I am. Her efforts are engines of strength when I feel tired. Thank you all. v Table of Content Content Page Acknowledgment……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..i Table of Content……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….ii Abbreviations…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..vi Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………ix Chapter One: 1. Introduction..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background of the Study..........................................................................................................1 1.2 Statement of the Problem……………………………………………………………………………………………..…....3 . 1.3 Objectives of the Study............................................................................................................4 1.3.1. General Objective…………………………………………………………………………………………….4 1.3.2. Specific Objectives…………………………………………………………………………………………..5 1.4. Research Questions................................................................................................................5 1.6 Significance of the Study.........................................................................................................6 1.7 Research Design and Methodology ………………………………………………………………….……………….…6 1.7.1. Approach of the Study………………………………………………………………………………………..6 1.7.2. Methods of Data Collection ………………………………………………………………………………..7 1.7.3. Data Analysis and Interpretation ………………………………………………………………………..7 1.8 Scope ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…..8 1.9. Limitation of the Study…………………………………………………………………………………………….………..….8 1.8 Structure of the Study……………………………………………………………………………………………………...……8 Chapter Two: Literature Review, Theoretical and Conceptual Framework……….……....10 2. Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..….10 2.1. Conceptual Perspective…………………………………………………………………………………………………..…10 2.1.1 Horn of African………………………………………………………………………………………………….……10 vi 2.1.2. Political Reforms Vs. Political Transition…………………………………………………………..…11 2.1.2.1. Political reforms Political Transition………………………………………………………………11 2.1.2.2. Political Transition………………………………………………………………………………………….11 2.1.3 Economic Integration………………………………………………………………………………………………11 2.1.3.1 Africa Economic Commission. (AEC)………………………………………………………………....13 2.1.3.2 Intergovernmental Authority on Development Initiatives. (IGAD).………………….13 2.1.3.3. Common Market for Eastern and Southern AfricArrangements………..………….14 . 2.1.4 Advantage of Economic integration……………………………………………..………………….…14 . 2.1.5. Disadvantage of economic integration………………………………………..……………….……14 2.2. Theoretical Perspectives……………………………………………………………………..…………………………..15 2.2.1 Democratic peace theory……………………………………………………………………………………15 2.2.2 Economic interdependence theory…………………………………………………………………….17 2.3. Background of the study: Ethiopians Economic relation with the neighboring counties 2.3.1 Eritrea………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………...20 2.3.2 Djibouti……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…21 2.3.3 Kenya……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………22 2.3.4 Sudan……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………22 2.3.5 South Sudan………………………………………………………………………………………………………….23 2.3.6 Somalia………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….24 Chapter Three 3. The Historical evolution of the contemporary internal political dynamics of Ethiopia……..26 3.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….26 3.2 The 2005 Elections………………………………………………………………………………………………………..26 3.3 Mass Protest (2014-2017)……………………………………………………………………………..……………..29 3.4 The role of Diaspora…………………………………………………………………………………………..…………32 3.5 Local resistance and power struggle…………………………………………………………………………….35 vii 3.6 The outcome of the reform…………………………………………………..…………………………………….36 3.7 Challenges to the current Reform……………………………………………………………………..…………36 3.7.1 Ethnic tensions and violence………………………………………………………………………..…………36 3.7.2 Absence of a structured transitional roadmap……………………………………………………….37 3.7. 3 Counterrevolutionary Forces…………………………………………………………………………………38 Chapter Four: The Economic Impact of the Current Internal Political dynamics of Ethiopia to the Horn of Africa 4.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................38 4.2 Djibouti………………………..………………….……………………………………………………………………………..39 4.2.1.Port................................................................................................................................40 4.2.2.Trade..............................................................................................................................43 4.3.Eretria………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..47 4.3.1 Opening of the Border…………………………………………………………………………………………..……48 4.3.2. Port Service………………………………………………………………………………………………………….......49 4.3.3. LiftingSanctions………………………………………………………………………………………………….……..49 4.3.4 Trade…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….50 4.4. Kenya…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………52 4.4.2 Port Service and Infrastructure…………………………………..……………………………………………….52 4.5. Sudan…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………53 4.5.1. Trade…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..54 4.5.2. Port service………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….55 4.6. South Sudan……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….57 4.6.1 Trade……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..58 4.7. Somalia……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….60 Chapter Five: Implication to, the Sub Regional Economic Integration schemes……………………62 5.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….62 viii 5.2 The Main Pillars of Implications…………………………………………………………………………………………63 5.2.1. Peace and Stability ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..65 5.2.2. Port Service……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….65 5.2.3. Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA)………………………………………………………………………….…66 5.2.4. Infrastructures and Energy……………………………………..………………………………………………67 5.2.5. Prospect of the amendment of the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy of Ethiopia……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………68 Chapter Six Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………….70 Reference……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….73 Appendix: 1………………………………………………………………………………………………………………83 Appendix: 2………………………………………………………………………………………………………………84 Appendix: 2.1……………………………………………………………………………………………………………84 Appendix: 2.2……………………………………………………………………………………………………………84 Appendix: 2.3…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….85 Table: 1…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….43 Table: 2…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….44 Table: 3…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….50 Table: 4…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….52 Table: 5…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….56 Table : 6………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….60 ix ABBREVIATIONS ADP Amhara Democratic party AEC Africa Economic Commission ACFTA Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement ADB African Development Bank ANDM Amhara National Democratic Movement APEC Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation AU Africa Union BIAT Boos ting Intra-A frica Trade CAFTA –DR Central American Free Trade Agreement –Dom inican Republic CFTA Continental Free Trade Area COM E SA Common Market for Eastern and Southe rn Africa CPA
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