SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Monthly JULY 2012 29 June 2012 This report is available online and can be FORECASTviewed together with research studies and Update Reports at www.securitycouncilreport.org. For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at www.whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Overview Contents of This Issue

Colombia will hold the presidency of the n the human rights situation in Libya, 1 Security Council in July. An open debate is by Pillay; Status Update since our June planned to discuss the annual report of n the human rights situation in the Occu- Forecast 2 the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) pied Palestinian Territories, by Pillay; 5 and receive briefings from the PBC country n the human rights situation in , Sudan and South Sudan 7 configurations’ chairs. The debate will be by Pillay; chaired by Colombia’s Foreign Minister, n Cyprus, by the head of the UN Peace- Sudan/Darfur 9 María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar. There will keeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP), Lisa UNSMIS (Syria) 11 also be an open debate on the Middle East M. Buttenheim and possibly also by the Israel/Palestine 14 with a briefing by the Secretariat. Secretary-General’s Special Adviser, Alexander Downer; Lebanon 15 The Council is due to also receive briefings, n Yemen by the Secretary-General’s 17 to be followed by consultations on: Special Adviser, Jamal Benomar; n Iraq by the head of the UN Assistance Yemen 18 n the status of compliance by Sudan, South Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), Martin Kobler; Sudan, and the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Libya 20 n Libya by the head of the UN Support Mis- Movement-North with Council resolution UNOWA (West ) 22 sion in Libya (UNSMIL), Ian Martin; 2046 (likely twice during the month); n Côte d’Ivoire, by the head of the UN Côte d’Ivoire 24 n the implementation of resolution 1701 Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI), Guinea-Bissau 26 (that called for a cessation of hostilities Albert Gerard Koenders; between Hezbollah and Israel) by 27 n Darfur and the work of the AU/UN Hybrid Special Coordinator Derek Plumbly; and Peacebuilding Commission 29 Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), most likely n the work of the Somalia/Eritrea by UN Secretariat; Cyprus 30 Sanctions Committee, by its Chair, n Guinea-Bissau, by the head of the UN Ambassador Hardeep Singh Puri (India). Notable Dates 32 Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea- Bissau (UNIOGBIS), Joseph Mutaboba; Consultations are also expected on the UN n Burundi, by the exiting head of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), prior Eritrea Office in Burundi (BNUB), Karin Land- to the renewal of its mandate. Expected Council Action gren and the Chair of the PBC Burundi Formal sessions will be needed to adopt In July, the Monitoring Group for Somalia Configuration Ambassador Paul Seger resolutions extending: and Eritrea sanctions is due to submit for (Switzerland); and n the mandate of UNMISS; the first time a separate report on Eritrea as n the work of the UN Office for West Africa n the mandate of UNFICYP; part of its final reporting obligations and is (UNOWA), by its head Said Djinnit. n the mandate of UNAMID; scheduled to brief the 751/1907 Sanctions Briefings in consultations will likely be n the mandate of UNAMI; Committee on the report. The Council is given on: n the mandate of UNOCI; expected to renew the Monitoring Group’s n Syria, probably twice, one likely by UN- n the mandate of the Somalia/Eritrea mandate before it expires at the end of July. Arab League Joint Special Envoy Kofi Sanctions Monitoring Group; and The Council is also due to consider the Annan and another by the High Commis- n the mandate of UNSMIS. Secretary-General’s report on Eritrea’s sioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay, and An interactive dialogue will most likely be compliance with resolutions 1844, 1862, the UN Supervision Mission in Syria held with the chairs of the PBC country- 1907 and 2023 which demanded that (UNSMIS); specific configurations. >>page 3

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our June Forecast n : On 6 June, extending three ICTR judges’ terms. n : On 20 June, the Council Margaret Vogt, the Secretary-General’s n DPRK (North Korea): On 12 June, the held a meeting (S.PV/6789) with Force Com- Special Representative and head of the UN Council adopted resolution 2050 extending manders from UN peacekeeping missions. Integrated Peacebuilding Office in the CAR the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) The Force Commanders from the UN Stabili- (BINUCA), briefed (S/PV.6780) the Council which assists the DPRK Sanctions Commit- sation Mission in the Democratic Republic of on the Secretary-General’s latest report tee until 12 July 2013. The resolution was the Congo (Lieutenant General Chander (S/2012/374) on the situation in the country. essentially a technical roll-over of last year’s Prakash), UN Interim Force in Lebanon Vogt noted that though the overall security resolution, although the Council extended (Major General Paolo Serra), UN Mission in situation has improved, the CAR remains the mandate for 13 instead of 12 months so South Sudan (Major General Moses Bisong fragile. The arrest of four politico-military as to enable greater continuity of the PoE’s Obi), and UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti leaders early in the year on charges of plans work during the mandate renewal period. (Major General Fernando Rodriguez Goulart) to re-launch an armed rebellion and the (The resolution expresses the Council’s made presentations to the Council during suspension of consultations between the intent to review the mandate and take appro- the debate. No Council action resulted. government and political parties on elec- priate renewal action by 12 June 2013.) n Myanmar: On 20 June, Council members toral matters exemplified the fragility of the Agreement was reached for the PoE’ final were briefed in consultations on Myanmar situation, she said. The representative of the report of 12 May to be published (unlike the by the Special Adviser to the Secretary- CAR also briefed the Council. No action previous year’s report), and resolution 2050 General on Myanmar, Vijay Nambiar, who was taken after the briefing. gives the final report a UN document number had recently returned from a visit to the n Iran: On 7 June, the Council adopted resolu- (S/2012/422), although it has not yet been country. Nambiar attended the Peace tion 2049 renewing the mandate of the Iran published on the Committee’s website. Donor Support Group, established by Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts n Consultations with the AU PSC: On 13 Norway to work with the government of (PoE) until 9 July next year. The only change June, at UN headquarters, Council members Myanmar and other partners. Council mem- from the previous year’s equivalent text was held their sixth annual consultative meeting bers were updated on the recent troubles in that the mandate was extended for 13 with the AU Peace and Security Council the western Rakhine State, where the com- months instead of 12, so as to enable greater (PSC). Issues discussed included: Guinea- munal violence between the ethnic Rakhine continuity of the PoE’s work during the man- Bissau, Mali, Somalia, Sudan and South Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims has led to date renewal period. (The Council will Sudan, developments in the Sahel region of a humanitarian crisis. consider further extension of the mandate by Africa, as well as the further strengthening of n Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict: 9 June 2013.) Agreement has been reached methods of work and cooperation between On 25 June, the Council held its biannual for this year’s PoE’s final report of 9 May the two bodies. The closed informal meeting open debate on protection of civilians in (S/2012/395) to be published. The report lasted about three hours and appears to have armed conflict (S/PV.6790 and Resumption contains 11 recommendations to the Sanc- been less contentious and more substantive 1). It featured briefings by the Secretary- tions Committee, including the designation than some of the previous consultations. A General and by Under-Secretary-General for of two companies for transporting prohibited detailed communiqué (S/2012/444) from the Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos, Assistant arms from Iran bound for Syria. On 12 June, meeting possibly signals a shift toward a Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan the Chair of the Sanctions Committee, more substantive and less process-oriented Simonovic (who delivered a statement on Ambassador Néstor Osorio (Colombia), phase in this relationship. behalf of High Commissioner for Human briefed the Council on the Committee’s work n Mali: On 18 June, the Council issued a Rights Navi Pillay), as well as the Director for (S/PV.6786). An open briefing on the Com- press statement (SC/10676) declaring its International Law and Cooperation at the mittee’s work for the benefit of the readiness to consider backing a military International Committee of the Red Cross, membership at large is scheduled for 9 July. intervention in Mali as proposed by the Philip Spoerri (via video-link). In addition to n Tribunals: On 7 June the Council held a Economic Community of West African Council members, more than 30 member debate on the ICTR/ICTY (S/PV.6782) States (ECOWAS) “once additional infor- states spoke. A key focus of the debate was where top officials of the two tribunals mation has been provided regarding the the Secretary-General’s 22 May report on briefed the Council. The Presidents and objectives, means and modalities of the protection of civilians (S/2012/376), but Prosecutors of the tribunals told the Coun- envisaged deployment and other possible speakers also raised a number of country- cil that they had recently made great strides measures.” The statement followed a specific protection concerns, including in completing their work and ensuring a 15 June meeting between Council mem- Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the transfer of remaining tasks to the so-called bers and a high-level delegation from Congo, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, “Residual Mechanism”. They reported, ECOWAS to discuss the situation in Mali. Syria, and Yemen. There was no outcome. however, that challenges to finishing all The statement encouraged “a close n Golan Heights: On 27 June, the Security work on schedule by the completion date of cooperation between the Commission of Council adopted resolution 2052 renewing December 2014 remained. Following the ECOWAS, the Commission of the African the UN Disengagement Observer Force debate the Council adopted a press Union, the Secretariat and (UNDOF) through 31 December 2012 and statement (SC/10667). On 29 June the countries in the region in order to prepare noted that events elsewhere in Syria have Council adopted a resolution (S/RES/2054) detailed options.” started to manifest themselves in the area of

2 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Status Update

responsibilities of UNDOF. On 21 June, Terrorism Committee for three further years, the UN and the AU in addressing the LRA Council members held consultations on the until 31 December 2013.) threat, and encouraging its continuation; Secretary-General’s most recent UNDOF n : On 29 June, the Council held con- and welcoming the official launching of the report (S/2012/403) and met with troop- sultations on Liberia after a briefing by AU-led Regional Cooperation Initiative contributing countries on 14 June. DPKO Assistant Secretary-General against the LRA in March. n Afghanistan: The Council held a debate (S/ Edmond Mulet. The briefing focused on n Democratic Republic of the Congo: The PV.6793) on the situation in Afghanistan the Secretary-General’s special report Council met several times in June regarding on 27 June 2012 during which it considered (S/2012/230) on the UN Mission in Liberia the DRC. On 6 June, the Council met with the Secretary-General’s quarterly report (UNMIL) of 16 April 2012 requested by Res- troop-contributing countries to the UN Stabi- (S/2012/462) on the UN Assistance Mission in olution 2008. Also on 15 June, the Chair of lisation Mission in the Democratic Republic Afghanistan (UNAMA). Hervé Ladsous, the Liberia Sanctions Committee submitted of the Congo. (MONUSCO). On 12 June, the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping, the midterm report (S/2012/448) of the Council received a briefing (S/PV.6785) by and Yuri Fedotov, Executive Director of the Panel of Experts supporting the sanctions Roger Meece, Special Representative of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, briefed during regime. This report was also discussed in Secretary-General and head of MONUSCO, the debate. There was no Council outcome. consultations on 29 June. No Council on recent developments in the DRC, includ- n Counter-Terrorism Committee: On 28 action was taken. ing a recent mutiny led by army officers June, Council members held consultations n UNOCA/LRA: On 29 June the Council which has caused a serious deterioration of on the activities of the Counter-Terrorism received a briefing on the UN Office in Cen- security in the Kivus. Following the briefing Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), tral Africa (UNOCA) and the Lord’s the Council issued a press statement which provides expert advice to the 1373 Resistance Army (LRA) (S/PV.6794). Fol- (SC/10672). On 26 June, the Council held Counter-Terrorism Committee. The Chair of lowing the briefing the Council adopted a consultations on DRC sanctions following the Counter-Terrorism Committee, Ambas- presidential statement (S/PRST/2012/18) receipt of the interim report of the Group of sador Hardeep Singh Puri (India), briefed strongly condemning the ongoing attacks Experts on the DRC (S/2012/348). Ambas- Council members on the Committee’s and carried out by the LRA in parts of central sador Agshin Mehdiyev (Azerbaijan) briefed CTED’s work. (Under resolution 1963, the Africa; welcoming the development of the the Council in his capacity as Chair of the Council decided that CTED would continue UN Regional Strategy to address the Threat DRC Sanctions Committee. Finally, on 27 to operate as a special political mission and Impact of the Activities of the LRA; wel- June the Council renewed MONUSCO’s under the policy guidance of the Counter- coming the strong collaboration between mandate until 30 June 2013 (S/RES/2053).

Development (IGAD), all speaking in sup- on the Council to address the unresolved Eritrea (continued) port of the proposed resolution. Eritrean border dispute with and ensure Eritrea cease all efforts to destabilise other President Isaias Afwerki had been invited respect for the final and binding 2002 ruling states and engage constructively to resolve to speak, but on 3 December Eritrea of the Eritrea and Ethiopia Border Commis- its border dispute with Djibouti. At press informed the Council that his participation sion (EEBC). It has also accused Ethiopia of time it was unclear whether there would be would be logistically impossible and “a flouting international law and the UN Char- a separate briefing on the report. mere formality and utterly meaningless” ter by occupying territory awarded to Eritrea because of the short notice. (The invitation by the EEBC ruling. Key Recent Developments was extended on 30 November 2011). On 5 December 2011, the Council adopted For its part, Ethiopia — in an 18 January resolution 2023, which condemned Following the adoption of resolution 2023, letter to the Council — accused Eritrea of Eritrea’s violations of resolutions 1844, Eritrea has written a series of letters to the being responsible for a 16 January “terror- 1862 and 1907, called on it “to engage con- Council protesting the sanctions against it ist attack” on its territory against a group of structively” to resolve its border dispute and calling for the establishment of “an 22 tourists in which five people were killed, with Djibouti and cease all efforts to desta- independent, impartial and credible body” something Eritrea subsequently denied. bilise other states in the region. It also in place of the Monitoring Group which it On 14 March, Ethiopia wrote a letter to the imposed new measures to prevent Eritrea claims lacks independence and impartial- Council invoking its right of self-defense from using the diaspora tax or revenues ity. (The Monitoring Group’s 2011 report and then on 15 March announced that it from its mining sector to finance peace accused Eritrea of continued violations of had launched a military attack against spoilers in Somalia and engage in other resolutions 1844 and 1907 as well as positions on Eritrean territory, accusing destabilising activities. China and Russia involvement in a plot to disrupt the AU sum- Eritrea of training Ethiopian rebel groups. abstained, while the other 13 Council mit in on 30-31 January 2011.) In response, Eritrea, in a 16 March letter, members voted in favour. called on the Council “to shoulder its legal In its letters, Eritrea has also consistently and moral responsibilities” and take accused the Council of being one-sided in Prior to the adoption, the Council heard “appropriate measures to rectify acts of its approach to the issues in the region. interventions by member countries of aggression” against Eritrea. the Intergovernmental Authority on More specifically, it has repeatedly called

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 3 On 18 April, the Sanctions Committee met A second key issue is the Monitoring be inappropriate to accept it as long as the with Ambassador Araya Desta (Eritrea). Group’s lack of access to Eritrea and to Monitoring Group is not able to travel there. Desta reiterated previous criticism of the some extent Somalia and whether this With regard to the Secretary-General’s Monitoring Group, accusing it of having impacts the quality and credibility of its report on Eritrea, it seems to be surrounded “glaringly failed to observe minimum stan- work. (Eritrea has refused to issue visas to by some controversy. The report was ini- dards of objectivity and political neutrality,” the group, while its coordinator, Matt tially released on 8 June, but Council in particular with regard to its sources of Bryden, was declared persona non grata by members were then informed that the information, and for operating outside its the TFG of Somalia.) report would be withdrawn and reissued mandate. He also said Eritrea would wel- A further issue is whether there is any merit later in the month. While the official explana- come a visit by the Committee to discuss the to the concerns and requests brought for- tion given was that some technical points sanctions regime and called on it to address ward by Eritrea. had been omitted, it appears the US was continued violations by Ethiopia of Eritrea’s unhappy with the report (as was Ethiopia). “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Another issue is whether the Council should The withdrawal was not well received by adopt a more comprehensive approach to Human Rights-Related other Council members, with some describ- the region and address the unresolved bor- Developments ing it as unprecedented and expressing der dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea. concern about procedural aspects and per- On 13 March during the general debate ceptions of the Secretariat giving in to of the Human Rights Council (HRC), Options Main options for the Council include: pressure. At press time, the revised report Somalia delivered a statement on behalf n renewing the Monitoring Group’s man- had yet to be issued and it was unclear of 40 countries on human rights in date relating to Eritrea without any whether it would be considered in a sepa- Eritrea. The statement lamented that significant changes; rate Council meeting or jointly with the Eritrea had never held national elections, n re-engaging on the issue of the unre- Monitoring Group’s report. did not allow independent media or solved border dispute between Ethiopia international NGOs to operate, and It seems that some of the negative reaction and Eritrea by explicitly addressing Ethio- severely restricted freedom of religion to the initial report might have been caused pia’s noncompliance with the EEBC’s and belief. The statement invited the UN by a reference in it to the lack of progress in border-demarcation decision; and High Commissioner for Human Rights to the implementation of the EEBC decision n considering the Secretary-General’s brief the HRC on Eritrea at its forthcom- as an issue that continued to negatively report on Eritrea in a public meeting in ing session. In reply, Eritrea said that the impact the situation in the Horn of Africa order to provide Eritrea and other states Universal Periodic Review by the HRC and needed to be addressed and that this with another opportunity to present their was the most appropriate mechanism to reference was considered to be outside the views on the situation in the region. examine human rights in countries. Secretary-General’s reporting mandate. Options in the Sanctions Committee In her opening address on 18 June to the Other Council members seem to acknowl- include: 20th session of the HRC, UN High Com- edge that the unresolved border dispute n considering the recommendations of the missioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay between Ethiopia and Eritrea is relevant. Monitoring Group relating to Eritrea with expressed deep concern over the human Some believe, however, that this is an issue a view to endorsing some or all of them; rights situation in Eritrea. Pillay said that for the AU rather than the Council. There is n moving to make the first designations for credible sources indicated a wide range of also a sense that the Council’s ability to take targeted sanctions under the provisions human rights violations, including arbitrary any effective action on this issue is very lim- of resolutions 1844 and 1907 on Eritrea; detention, torture, summary executions, ited given Eritrea’s intransigence and the and forced labour, forced conscriptions and close ties between the US and Ethiopia. n finalising, with the assistance of the restrictions to freedoms of movement, Monitoring Group, the due diligence expression, assembly and religion. She UN Documents guidelines relating to the Eritrean mining had written to the government in January Security Council Resolutions sector called for by resolution 2023. offering to assist it in addressing human • S/RES/2023 (5 December 2011) rights challenges and had subsequently Council Dynamics condemned Eritrea’s violations of provided a list of potential areas of coop- A key concern among Council members resolutions 1907, 1862 and 1844 and eration that could be discussed. No reply seems to be the Monitoring Group’s lack of imposed new measures to prevent had been received to this proposal. access to Eritrea and the impact this inevi- Eritrea from using the diaspora tax or tably has on its ability to collect and verify revenues from its mining sector to Key Issues information. As to Eritrean grievances commit further violations. A key issue for the Council is whether the about the Monitoring Group, members • S/RES/2002 (29 July 2011) extended sanctions on Eritrea are being effectively point out that if Eritrea really wanted to the mandate of the Monitoring Group implemented. A related issue is whether clear up any misconceptions it should for Eritrea and Somalia for another they are having an impact in terms of cooperate with the Group. With regard to year and requested for the first time a changing behavior and ensuring compli- the invitation to the Sanctions Committee separate report on Eritrea. ance with relevant Council resolutions. to visit Eritrea, members agreed it would

4 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org • S/RES/1907 (23 December 2009) • S/2011/792 (20 December 2011) imposed an arms embargo and tar- was a letter from Eritrea requesting SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT geted sanctions on Eritrea for its the Council to “review and annul” all Monthly destabilising role in Somalia and its measures against it and to establish failure to comply with resolution 1862. “an independent, impartial and July 2012FORECAST • S/RES/1862 (14 January 2009) credible body” in place of the demanded that Eritrea withdraw its Monitoring Group. implementation of the humanitarian forces within five weeks to the posi- • S/2011/753 (3 December 2011) was a exemption provision and any misuse or tions of the status quo ante in its letter from Eritrea declining the invita- obstruction of humanitarian assistance. A border dispute with Djibouti. tion for its president to address the briefing in the Sanctions Committee on • S/RES/1844 (20 November 2008) Council on 5 December. this report by the Office for the Coordina- imposed targeted sanctions relating • S/2011/663 (25 October) was from tion of Humanitarian Affairs is expected. Eritrea to the Council requesting that to the situation in Somalia. n The AU is due to submit its periodic report Secretary-General’s Report the Eritrean president be invited to on the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) address the Council. • S/2012/412 (8 June 2012) was the as requested by resolution 2036. • S/2011/652 (20 October 2011) was Secretary-General’s report requested from Eritrea to the Council submitting Several Council members will also partici- by resolution 2023. its response to the report of the Moni- pate in the meeting of the International Meeting Record toring Group. Contact Group for Somalia scheduled for • S/PV.6674 and resumption 1 • S/2011/433 (18 July 2011) was from 2-3 July in Rome, as well as the meeting of (5 December 2011) was the adoption the Sanctions Committee chair trans- the International Contact Group on Piracy of resolution 2023 with explanations of mitting the Monitoring Group’s latest off the Coast of Somalia to be held in New vote, including by China and Russia, report to the Council. York on 26 July. which abstained. • S/2011/434 (14 July 2011) was from Key Recent Developments Ethiopia to the Council transmitting Letters to the Council The situation in Somalia was last considered the 4 July IGAD Assembly of Heads of • S/2012/181 (27 March 2012) was a by the Council in a 15 May meeting featuring Government communiqué calling for letter from Eritrea accusing the US briefings by Somali president Sheikh Sharif Council action against Eritrea. of playing a destabilising role in the Sheikh Ahmed and the Secretary-General’s Horn of Africa region and calling for Special Representative for Somalia, Augus- an independent inquiry. tine Mahiga. Mahiga, who briefed the • S/2012/164 (16 March 2012) was a Somalia Council on the Secretary-General’s latest letter from Eritrea on Ethiopia’s 15 report and more recent developments, March incursion into Eritrean territory. Expected Council Action emphasised that the transitional process • S/2012/158 (14 March 2012) was a The Council is expected to renew the man- had entered its most critical stage. He called letter from Ethiopia calling on the date of the Monitoring Group for Somalia for logistical and financial support and inter- Council to ensure Eritrea’s compli- and Eritrea which expires on 29 July and is national cooperation and coordination to ance with relevant resolutions and likely to then also extend the humanitarian enable implementation of the roadmap for stressing its own right of self-defense. exemption to the targeted sanctions regime ending the transition before the 20 August • S/2012/126 (29 February 2012) was a for Somalia. deadline. He also raised the issue of spoil- letter from Eritrea calling on the Coun- The Chair of the Sanctions Committee for ers, warning that such elements must be cil to ensure respect for the EEBC Somalia and Eritrea is due to brief the Coun- dealt with “before they succeed in under- ruling and reiterating its request for cil on the work of the Committee. mining the peace process.” (Mahiga met lifting of sanctions and establishment with the Sanctions Committee on 14 May to of an “enquiry committee.” Also in July, it is possible that the Council discuss this issue in more detail.) • S/2012/57 (23 January 2012) was a will request a briefing on the status of the Following the meeting, Council members letter from Eritrea urging the Council transitional process. issued a press statement expressing con- “to ensure Ethiopia’s prompt compli- The Council is expecting several reports cern that some of the roadmap’s deadlines ance with its treaty obligations and to relating to the situation in Somalia: had been missed, calling on all the signato- respect international law.” n The Monitoring Group is due to submit two ries to “redouble their efforts to complete • S/2012/47(19 January 2012) was a separate final reports—one on Somalia the roadmap tasks,” emphasising the letter from Eritrea rejecting the accusa- and one on Eritrea—and to brief the Sanc- importance of a transparent and legitimate tions in Ethiopia’s 18 January letter. tions Committee. (For sanctions issues political process and reiterating their readi- • S/2012/44 (18 January 2012) was a related specifically to Eritrea, please refer ness to support measures against internal letter from Ethiopia accusing Eritrea of to a separate brief in this Forecast.) or external actors seeking to undermine or being behind the 16 January attack n The Humanitarian Coordinator for Soma- block the peace process. against a group of tourists. lia is due to submit a report by 15 July on

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 5 Subsequently, the roadmap signatories Options Human Rights-Related met twice to resolve remaining implementa- Main options for the Council include: Developments tion issues and revise timelines, first in n renewing the mandate of the Monitoring Addis Ababa on 23 May and then from On 2 May the UN independent expert on Group and the humanitarian exemption 20-22 June in Nairobi. Among other things, the situation of human rights in Somalia, for a further 12 months without any sig- they decided at the second meeting on pro- Shamsul Bari, urged the Somali authori- nificant changes; tocols for the establishment of the National ties and the international community to n renewing the mandate for 13 months Constituent Assembly (NCA) and the Fed- re-establish a legitimate justice system (this was recently done in the cases of eral Parliament and also agreed on the in Mogadishu and South Central Soma- the sanctions regimes for Iran and DPRK official draft of the provisional constitution to lia. Bari stressed that strengthening in order to ensure that the inevitable be forwarded to the NCA. It was agreed that access to justice and the rule of law was delay between mandate adoption and the NCA will convene on 12 July and should crucial to protect and promote the fun- appointment of experts would not conclude its work by 20 July. damental rights of the Somali people. unduly shorten the time available for the Expressing deep concern about the col- experts to do their work); On 31 May and 1 June, Turkey hosted an lapse of institutions for law enforcement n in the Sanctions Committee, considering international conference on Somalia in and administration of justice, he noted and possibly endorsing some or all of the Istanbul attended by representatives from that women, internally displaced per- recommendations of the Monitoring 57 countries and 11 regional organisations, sons and minorities suffered particularly Group; and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) from the lack of access to justice and n depending on developments, adopting a and regional administrations as well as civil due process. Bari pointed out that par- statement on the transitional process. society. The objective was to reaffirm inter- ticipants at the 23 February London national support for Somalia, ensure a Council Dynamics Conference had underlined that human smooth end of the transition and build con- At press time, Council members had yet to rights should be at the heart of the peace sensus on a long-term approach for the receive the final report of the Monitoring process and rebuilding of Somalia. post-transition period. Group or that of the Humanitarian Coordi- nator and had not started considering the The communiqué, which focused on politi- Key Issues Group’s mandate renewal. It was expected, cal, security and economic development A key issue for the Council in July is the however, that the mandate would be issues, reiterated many of the key mes- effectiveness of the sanctions regime for renewed without any major changes and sages from the 23 February London Somalia, including the recently estab- that the humanitarian exemption would also conference with regard to the political pro- lished international trading ban on Somali be extended. cess as well as support for AMISOM and charcoal and the impact of the expansion of the sanctions criteria to include recruit- strengthening Somali security and rule of With regard to the political process, the focus ment and use of child soldiers and law institutions. It also emphasised the seems to be very much on the end of the targeting of civilians. importance of economic development and transition and on keeping up the pressure on reconstruction and called for the early con- A closely related issue is how to the Somalis to finalise the constitutional pro- clusion of negotiations to establish a joint respond to the findings of the Monitoring cess, and there has been little discussion of financial management board. (The role of Group and recommendations for follow-up post-transitional issues. There are expecta- this new mechanism is to ensure transpar- Council action. tions, however, that the 2-3 July Contact ency and accountability with regard to Group meeting, which is viewed as impor- public funds. According to a World Bank Another key issue is the renewal of the Mon- tant, will consider concrete proposals for the report circulated at the conference, the TFG itoring Group’s mandate and whether any post-transitional period that can provide the collected $164 million in revenue in 2009 changes should be considered. basis for an international consensus. and 2010 but only reported $33 million.) Another related issue is the fact that the On the security front, there seems to be AMISOM and Somali security forces contin- Monitoring Group’s coordinator, Matt some concern among Council members ued to expand their control beyond Bryden, was declared persona non grata by about the lack of transparency surrounding Mogadishu. On 25 May they captured the TFG. Kenya’s engagement in Somalia. While the Afgoye (a strategic town situated approxi- A separate key issue for the Council is how understanding is that, following the signing mately 30 kilometres from the capital that best to support the constitutional process of the MoU on 2 June, Kenyan troops are had been held by the Islamist rebel group Al and help ensure an orderly end to the tran- now under AMISOM command, it seems Shabaab) and on 27 May secured control of sition by the 20 August deadline. they are not yet fully integrated and the the corridor linking it with Mogadishu, an exact size and composition of the Kenyan area with one of the highest concentrations A further issue is the continued implemen- contingent is still unclear. of internally displaced persons in the world. tation of AMISOM’s new strategic concept endorsed by resolution 2036 and progress The UK is the lead country on Somalia in the On 2 June, the AU signed a long-awaited achieved so far. Council, while India chairs the Sanctions Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Committee and Russia has taken the lead Kenya as a troop-contributor to AMISOM. on legal issues related to piracy.

6 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org UN Documents Sudan and South Sudan Security Council Resolutions Expected Council Action SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT • S/RES/2036 (22 February 2012) The Council will likely hold consultations Monthly authorised an increase in AMISOM’s twice during July on the situation between July 2012 troop strength as well as a further Sudan and South Sudan in accordance FORECAST expansion of its UN support package with resolution 2046. This resolution, and imposed a ban on importing or adopted on 2 May, asks the Secretary- Menkerios discussed the planning for the exporting Somali charcoal. General to inform the Council at two-week establishment of the Safe Demilitarised Bor- • S/RES/2010 (30 September 2011) intervals on the status of compliance by der Zone and the Joint Border Monitoring extended the authorisation of Sudan, South Sudan and the Sudan Peo- and Verification Mechanism along the AMISOM until 31 October and ples’ Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) Sudan-South Sudan border. He told expanded the logistical support with the resolution. Council members that South Sudan had package for the mission from accepted the map that the AU High-Level Navi Pillay, UN High Commissioner for assessed contributions. Implementation Panel (AUHIP), which is Human Rights, is also expected to brief the • S/RES/2002 (29 July 2011) extended responsible for facilitating negotiations Council in consultations on Sudan and the mandate of the Monitoring Group between the parties, had presented as a South Sudan in early July. on Somalia and Eritrea as well as the basis for negotiation on the geographic parameters of the zone, while Sudan is humanitarian exemption to the Soma- The Council further expects to hold consul- reluctant to accept the map. (While the AU lia sanctions regime for 12 months tations on, and renew the mandate of, the map is meant to be used for the technical and expanded the criteria for targeted UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) prior purpose of establishing border mecha- sanctions to include recruitment and to its expiration on 9 July. use of children in armed conflict and nisms, the parties appear to be concerned Key Recent Developments targeting of civilians. that it could prejudice negotiations on bor- From 29 May to 7 June, Sudan and South • S/RES/1844 (20 November 2008) der demarcation, as several of the areas Sudan returned to the negotiating table in imposed targeted sanctions relating along the border are disputed.) Addis Ababa for the first time since they to the situation in Somalia. During the consultations, Mulet reportedly clashed militarily in late March and April. Presidential Statement noted that there were roughly 100 to 130 At the talks, both parties discussed the lightly armed Sudanese police remaining • S/PRST/2012/4 (5 March 2012) geographic parameters of the Safe Demili- in the Abyei region, guarding the Difra oil welcomed the 23 February London tarised Border Zone that the countries had facilities. (While these “oil police” do not conference on Somalia and fully agreed to establish along their mutual have much force capacity, their presence supported its communiqué. border. They also agreed to dispatch is nonetheless a violation of resolution Secretary-General’s Reports national monitors to a temporary base in 2046, which demands that all Sudanese Assosa, Ethiopia, in preparation for their • S/2012/283 (1 May 2012) was the and South Sudanese security forces with- deployment as part of the joint border veri- latest report on Somalia. draw from the area.) fication and monitoring team. Meeting Record On 18 June, Lt. General Tadesse Werede • S/PV.6770 (15 May 2012) was the The parties resumed the negotiations in Tesfay (Ethiopia), the Force Commander of latest Council meeting on Somalia Addis Ababa from 21 to 28 June, continuing the UN Interim Security Force in Abyei featuring briefings by the Somali their efforts to define the territory of the Safe (UNISFA), briefed Council members in con- president and the Secretary-General’s Demilitarised Border Zone and establish sultations. He noted that regular UNISFA Special Representative. the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring patrols enhanced the mission’s visibility. He Mechanism. It does not appear that much Other also reportedly said that UNISFA had progress was made in the discussions, and • S/2012/468 (20 June 2012) contained already sent 32 of 35 UN monitors to the the two parties agreed to reconvene in the 60-day AU report on AMISOM temporary headquarters of the Joint Border Addis on 5 July. requested by resolution 2036. Verification and Monitoring Mechanism in • S/2012/408 (5 June 2012) was a The Council maintained its intensive engage- Assosa, but that Sudan and South Sudan letter from Turkey submitting the ment on Sudan-South Sudan issues in June. had not yet fulfilled their commitment to dis- Istanbul communiqué. On 14 June, Haile Menkerios, Special Envoy patch their monitors there. Tesfay also • SC/10649 (15 May 2012) was a of the Secretary-General for Sudan and South added that once both parties deployed their Council press statement on the Sudan, and Assistant Secretary-General for monitors, the Mechanism could begin to political process. Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet briefed Coun- function within two weeks, although it would • S/2011/433 (18 July 2011) was the cil members during consultations (Menkerios not be fully operational for several months. final report from the Monitoring Group participated via videoconference). Council Council members issued a press statement under its previous mandate. members were informed that no significant (SC/10677) on Sudan and South Sudan on cross-border incursions appeared to have 18 June. They welcomed the resumption of occurred in the prior two weeks.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 7 negotiations between both parties and economic and development impact of the Human Rights-Related noted the decrease in violence along the unresolved oil issues and how this will affect Developments mutual border. The statement nonetheless the people of both South Sudan and Sudan, expressed strong concern about the lack of particularly the most vulnerable.” In her opening address on 18 June to the progress by the parties in addressing the Human Rights Council, UN High Com- Corruption in South Sudan seems to have fundamental issues separating them and missioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay compounded the economic woes. In a 3 highlighted the importance of establishing noted that South Sudan faced many May letter to 75 former and current govern- border security mechanisms. In the state- major challenges. Governance was ment officials, President Salva Kiir of South ment, Council members furthermore weak and impunity from prosecution Sudan offered amnesty to officials for the reiterated their grave concern about the prevailed, particularly among the secu- return of funds amounting to $4 billion that humanitarian situation in South Kordofan rity forces. Persistent inter-communal have allegedly been stolen from the govern- and Blue Nile states in Sudan. violence had had a devastating impact, ment. (Reuters has indicated that $4 billion particularly as the capacity of the nation Council members met in consultations on could constitute approximately one-third of to overcome this phenomenon remained 28 June to discuss Sudan/South Sudan the total oil revenue the South received limited. Robust institutions were needed issues. Philippe Lazzarini, Deputy Director from the time of the signing of the Compre- to overcome these critical gaps. Pillay of the Office for the Coordination of Human- hensive Peace Agreement [CPA] in 2005 to was encouraged, however, by the itarian Affairs, and Menkerios briefed during its independence on 9 July 2011.) government’s commitment to address the consultations. Lazzarini reportedly said On 13 June, the government of South human rights issues. that over 200,000 refugees from Sudan Sudan wrote a letter (S/2012/429) to the were now in South Sudan and Ethiopia, Council expressing its views on the renewal Key Issues having fled violence and food insecurity. Regarding Sudan and South Sudan relations: of the mandate of UNMISS. In it, it expressed Menkerios noted that while relations n An important issue is the need for the that it had “taken responsibility for the safety between Sudan and South Sudan remained Council to maintain the pressure on the and security of [its] citizens” since indepen- fragile, there had not been significant vio- parties to adhere to the decisions in dence and therefore UNMISS should no lence between the countries in recent resolution 2046. longer be authorised under Chapter VII of weeks. He noted that at a certain point dur- n A related issue is for the parties to estab- the UN Charter. It further argued that the ing the recent talks in Addis (21-28 June) lish the Joint Border Verification and principle threats to its international peace the parties began negotiating without the Monitoring Mechanism and the Safe and security related to military actions by presence of AUHIP mediators in the room. Demilitarised Border Zone, given the Sudan and unresolved CPA issues. clashes between Sudan and South At press time, Sudan had been engulfed in South Sudan also affixed an evaluation of Sudan in the border areas over the past protests for nearly two weeks. Initially UNMISS that it had conducted, which it several months. focused on rising commodity prices, the requested that the Council consider when n Another related issue is Sudan’s unwilling- protests started on 16 June at the University renewing the mission’s mandate. The eval- ness to remove its remaining police from of . They quickly spread through- uation praised some areas of cooperation the Abyei region, a violation of resolution out Khartoum and to other cities after between UNMISS and South Sudan, includ- 2046, which states that all security forces President Omar al-Bashir announced an ing, inter alia, addressing inter-communal should be withdrawn from the area. austerity plan on 18 June to bolster the fal- violence, promoting human rights, and n A further key and ongoing issue is how tering economy that includes eliminating making progress on disarmament, demo- the Council can best support the AUHIP fuel subsidies, increasing taxes, devaluing bilisation and reintegration issues. in its efforts to facilitate the negotiations the currency and cutting government posts. between the parties on residual CPA However, there were several areas in which In June, South Sudan maintained its shut- issues such as oil wealth sharing, border the evaluation questioned the role of down of oil production, which it initiated on demarcation and the final status of Abyei. UNMISS. It criticised the mission for its failure 22 January after accusing Khartoum of con- n An additional important and ongoing to protect civilians from aerial bombard- fiscating $815 million worth of oil flowing issue is the humanitarian crisis in South ments by Sudan and said that it had made a through a pipeline that runs from South Kordofan and Blue Nile states in Sudan. “negligible contribution” to economic devel- Sudan to Port Sudan on the Red Sea. The opment. In particular, it argued that UNMISS Among key issues relevant to the Council’s shutdown by South Sudan, which had had failed in its efforts to build infrastructure, work in South Sudan are: received 98 percent of its income from oil including roads, bridges, airfields and com- n whether and how the Council decides to revenue, has plunged the country into a munity centres. The evaluation further address South Sudan’s suggestions severe economic crisis, with inflation rising alleged that the mission had not coordinated from its assessment of UNMISS when quickly and rapidly depleting currency adequately with relevant government organs renewing the mission’s mandate; reserves. In a 7 May letter to the Sudan Tri- about its activities and was not transparent n how to most effectively address reports bune, Lillian Foo, Communications Officer about its hiring practices. As such, it of human rights violations committed by for the World Bank in Africa, wrote that requested a renegotiation of the Status of South Sudanese troops during the disar- the Bank “is deeply concerned with the Forces Agreement of the mission. mament campaign in Jonglei;

8 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org n the status of the constitutional review pro- resolution. Although the Council expresses cess that South Sudan has been its intention in resolution 2046 to consider conducting for several months and how Article 41 measures (e.g. sanctions) in case SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT UNMISS can continue to support this of non-compliance with the resolution, it Monthly process as effectively as possible; and appears clear that Council members would July 2012 n how to help South Sudan meet the prefer to avoid this scenario. FORECAST humanitarian challenges that have been There is also continuing alarm among sev- exacerbated by refugees and returnees report on the AU/UN Hybrid Mission in eral Council members about the ongoing from Sudan during the past year. Darfur (UNAMID). The Council is also likely humanitarian crisis in South Kordofan and to renew the mission’s mandate for another Options Blue Nile. It seems that these members are year, as it is due to expire on 31 July. With respect to Sudan-South Sudan issues, keen to maintain the Council’s focus on this options for the Council include: aspect of the situation, given reports of civil- Key Recent Developments n recommending that both parties refer ian malnutrition and suffering. There were several recent reports of fight- their unresolved border demarcation ing between Sudanese Armed Forces and Regarding South Sudan, several members issues to the International Court of Jus- rebels. On 2 June, the Justice and Equality are interested in issues such as the prog- tice (or alternatively, the Permanent Movement (JEM) said that it had killed sev- ress of civilian disarmament in Jonglei, Court of Arbitration) in accordance with eral troops during an assault on an army reported human rights violations related to article 36 (3) of the UN Charter, which base in north-eastern Darfur. the disarmament process and the constitu- states that “legal disputes should as a tional review process. While sensitive to On 9 June, the JEM announced that it had general rule be referred to the Interna- input from South Sudan as a host country, seized an area called Um Ajaja in eastern tional Court of Justice”; most Council members do not seem to Darfur, capturing several militia members n requesting that the chair of the AUHIP, have an appetite to provide UNMISS with a loyal to Khartoum and 20 army vehicles. Thabo Mbeki, brief the Council during Chapter VI mandate, given the significant Sudan denied the allegation that fighting one of the biweekly consultations, in inter-communal violence in South Sudan had occurred, claiming instead that the order to get the AU’s perspective on the over the last year. JEM had merely stolen property from civil- situation between Sudan and South ians in the area. Sudan; and The US is the lead country on Sudan-South n holding an “Arria formula” meeting with Sudan issues and UNMISS. On 15 June, rebels apparently linked to the human rights and humanitarian organi- Sudan Liberation Army-Minni Minawi sations as well as other well-informed UN Documents (SLA-MM) attacked Abu-Ajora, a town actors about the situation in South Kor- Security Council Resolutions southwest of Nyala in South Darfur, and dofan and Blue Nile. seized five vehicles from an American • S/RES/2046 (2 May 2012) was on Refugee Council facility. Two civilians Sudan-South Sudan relations. With respect to South Sudan, options for reportedly died while the rebels confis- • S/RES/1997 (11 July 2011) liquidated the Council include: cated supplies from a local market. n renewing UNMISS under Chapter VII, with UNMIS. or without modifications to the mandate; • S/RES/1996 (8 July 2011) established Fighting was also reported on 16 June n considering a renewal of the mandate UNMISS. between the army and the Sudan Revolu- under Chapter VI; and Latest Secretary-General’s Report tionary Front (SRF), an alliance of rebel groups, in northern Darfur between El n using the Council’s Working Group on • S/2012/486 (26 June 2012) Peacekeeping as a forum for discussing Fasher and Nyala. The army said that it had Security Council Press Statement how to address areas of concern that South initiated the attack against the SRF, which Sudan has raised about UNMISS’s activities. • SC/10677 (18 June 2012) under- had apparently been obstructing the pas- scored the importance of establishing sage of goods in the area. Council Dynamics border-monitoring mechanisms. On 18 June, President Omar al-Bashir While encouraged that Sudan and South Letter Sudan have returned to the negotiating table, declared austerity measures in Sudan that • S/2012/429 (13 June 2012) was a Council members are nonetheless con- include eliminating fuel subsidies, increas- letter from South Sudan to the Council cerned that the parties have made little ing taxes, devaluing the currency and assessing UNMISS. progress in implementing resolution 2046. cutting government posts. The measures Several members regret in particular the are meant to bolster the deteriorating econ- inability of the parties to take the necessary omy, which has been hard hit since South actions and make the fundamental Sudan/Darfur Sudan gained independence in July 2011 decisions required to establish border-moni- and left Sudan with approximately 75 per- toring mechanisms. It also appears that there Expected Council Action cent less in oil reserves. Several days of is widespread disappointment on the Coun- In late July, the Council expects to receive a protests ensued in Khartoum and other cit- cil with Sudan’s decision to maintain “oil briefing and hold consultations on the latest ies in Sudan following the announcement, police” in the Abyei region, in violation of the developments and the Secretary-General’s which were ongoing at press time.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 9 The Council was last briefed on UNAMID on officers, and a reconfiguration of the remain- In Khartoum, on 12 June, the Special Pros- 26 April by Under-Secretary-General for ing elements as appropriate.” He further ecutor of Darfur Crimes, Ahmed Abdel Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous. recommended that the Council reduce the Motalib, submitted his resignation to al- He highlighted the need for Sudan to pro- authorised strength of the different types of Bashir for undisclosed reasons. Motalib vide financial support for the Darfur Regional mission personnel correspondingly. was the third person to hold the post since Authority (DRA), an entity established in October 2010. A new prosecutor, Yassir Ladsous noted in his 26 April briefing to February 2012 to help implement provisions Ahmed Mohamed, was appointed on 19 the Council that, according to the review, of the Doha Document for Peace related to June. (The government established the a large number of UNAMID infantry could human rights, justice, reconciliation and Special Prosecutor position in 2010 to be moved from the Chadian and Libyan development. Ladsous noted in particular investigate alleged war crimes and crimes borders to the relatively populous central that the DRA Chair, El-Tigani Sessi, warned against humanity in Darfur; however, belt of Darfur. (According to Ladsous, the in an address to the Sudanese parliament Sudanese officials have benefited from basis for this finding is that Sudan’s rela- on 23 April that without requisite funding immunity, which makes the work of the tions with Chad and Libya have improved, the peace process could collapse. prosecutor problematic.) as has security along its border with Ladsous also said that the potential for a these countries.) Human Rights-Related resumption of negotiations between the Developments On 21 June, the Sudan Sanctions Commit- government and rebel movements that tee met in consultations. It seems that much The UN independent expert on the situa- have not signed the Doha document did not of the discussion focused on the fact that tion of human rights in Sudan, Mashood look favourable. He explained that the JEM the members of its Panel of Experts (PoE), Adebayo Baderin, conducted his first and the SLA-MM have indicated a desire to appointed in April, had yet to receive visas mission there from 10-14 June to identify discuss only national economic and politi- to enter Sudan and conduct their investiga- areas of technical assistance and capac- cal reforms, while the Sudan Liberation tions. (At press time, it appeared that ity-building that could help the country Army-Abdul Wahid (SLA-AW) has said that Khartoum had approved the visa requests, fulfill its human-rights obligations. it will only negotiate when the government and the panel planned to submit an interim Baderin recognised the initial measures deals with the underlying sources of the report to the Committee by the end of July.) taken by Sudan, such as the establish- conflict. (Khartoum has said that it is only The release of this report had been ment of the National Commission for willing to discuss the situation in Darfur, and expected in June, but the Committee Human Rights, but highlighted the need in this respect, only particular elements of requested an extension given the fact that for further steps to be taken, including in the Doha document related to security the PoE has not been able to enter Darfur to the area of protecting freedom of expres- arrangements and political appointments.) conduct its investigations. The 2011 final sion and the press. Noting the need for Ladsous further outlined the findings of the report of the PoE, submitted to the Council capacity-building in human rights train- conflict assessment and review of UNAMID in early 2012 in accordance with resolution ing for judges, justice officials and the uniformed personnel that the UN con- 1982, has also not been publicly released, police, the expert also identified the ducted in February in collaboration with the as some Council members believe that it need for the government to include the AU in accordance with resolution 2003. contains inaccuracies. promotion of human rights among its pri- According to the Secretary-General’s report ority funding considerations. Baderin will On 5 June, Luis Moreno-Ocampo deliv- (S/2012/231), the review found that while present his findings and recommenda- ered his final briefing to the Council as there had been an overall reduction of fight- tions to the September session of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal ing between rebel groups and the Human Rights Council. Court (ICC). He said that the failure of the government since UNAMID was estab- government of Sudan to apprehend and lished in 2008, conflict nonetheless Key Issues surrender four ICC indictees—al-Bashir, A key issue is whether to renew UNAMID’s continued, especially in central Darfur. The Ahmed al-Harun, Abdelrahim Mohamed mandate with a reconfigured and stream- report also noted that “criminality has Hussein and Ali Kushayb—directly chal- lined force structure in accordance with the emerged as the most significant threat to lenges the authority of the Council. Secretary-General’s recommendation. If civilians and humanitarian workers” Ocampo suggested that the Council con- the Council were to take this step, a related because of a lack of governmental, judicial sider as an option asking member states issue would be how well the mission would and policing capacity and the challenging and regional organisations to conduct be able to carry out its mandate with this political environment in the region. operations to arrest these individuals. adjusted force structure. As the review found that the mission could On 15 June, Fatou Bensouda (Gambia) An ongoing issue is the fact that key rebel reduce inefficiencies and overlapping was sworn in as Prosecutor of the ICC. In a movements in Darfur—including JEM, SLA- responsibilities among personnel, the speech on 13 June, she said that the MM and SLA-AW—continue to fight the Secretary-General expressed his intention Court’s focus was on “individual criminal Sudanese government and refuse to par- “to proceed with downward adjustments in behaviour against innocent victims”, allud- ticipate in the peace process in Darfur. UNAMID consisting of approximately 4,200 ing in particular to al-Bashir, al-Harun, military elements, 280 formed police unit Another important and recurring issue is the Joseph Kony and Bosco Ntaganda. elements and 1,460 individual police lack of timeliness by the government of

10 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Sudan in granting visas to UN personnel. In years, there are concerns among some the context of Darfur, this is reflected by the members about the recent fighting between delay that the current PoE has experienced the government and rebel groups, espe- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT in receiving its visas. cially at a time when the Council is likely to Monthly reduce the force level of UNAMID. Options July 2012FORECAST The most likely option for the Council is to While Council members support the Doha renew the mandate of UNAMID for an addi- Document for Peace in Darfur, there is Meeting Records tional year at the reduced force level ongoing concern that key rebel movements recommended by the Secretary-General. have not acceded to the peace process. • S/PV.6778 (5 June 2012) was the lat- Some members are also particularly wor- est briefing by the ICC Prosecutor. Other options for the Council include: ried that the government of Sudan has yet • S/PV.6762 (26 April 2012) was the n reducing the force level in an incremental to fund the DRA, a point raised by the UK Council’s discussion of the Secretary- fashion given the recent clashes between and Morocco during Moreno Ocampo’s General’s last report on UNAMID. Sudan and rebel groups; briefing on 5 June. n reducing the force level and calling for a Other Relevant Facts review of UNAMID’s reconfiguration at a There are sharp differences of perspective UNAMID: Joint AU-UN Special future date to ensure that the streamlined on the Council regarding the ICC’s role in Representative for Darfur mission is achieving maximum opera- Sudan. These were clearly reflected during Ibrahim Gambari () tional effectiveness; the 5 June briefing. Several members— UNAMID: Force Commander n emphasising the need for progress in Colombia, France, Germany, Guatemala, implementing the Doha Document for Portugal, Togo, the UK and the US—criti- Lt. Gen. Patrick Nyamvumba (Rwanda) Peace; cised Sudan, often in strong terms, for its UNAMID: Size, Composition, and Cost n reiterating calls on rebel groups to lack of cooperation with the ICC. A number Maximum authorised strength: accede to the Doha Document and of these countries also spoke in comple- up to 19,555 military personnel, 3,772 threatening sanctions in case of non- mentary terms of the ICC’s efforts in Sudan. police and 19 formed police units (total compliance; Other members are more wary of the ICC’s police 6,432) n demanding progress by the government work in the country. and South Main troop contributors: Nigeria, in issuing visas more expeditiously; and Africa emphasised at the briefing that the Rwanda, , Ethiopia and Senegal n expressing eagerness to consider the pursuit of justice should not interfere with Military strength as of 31 May 2012: assessment called for by paragraph 21 of the search for peace, while India indicated 17,364 troops and 591 military observers resolution 2033 adopted on 12 January, that the Court should be guided by “objec- Police Strength as of 31 May 2012: 5,511 which requests the Secretary-General, in tivity, not politicisation.” police personnel consultation with the AU, to “conduct a Annual Budget: $1.689 billion comprehensive analysis of lessons The UK is the lead country on Darfur. learned from practical cooperation between the United Nations and the Afri- UN Documents can Union, in particular with regard to” Security Council Resolutions UNSMIS (Syria) UNAMID and the Mission in • S/RES/2033 (12 January 2012) Expected Council Action Somalia (AMISOM). (At press time, the focused on UN-AU cooperation. The mandate of the UN Supervision Mission analysis had yet to be undertaken.) • S/RES/2003 (29 July 2011) extended in Syria (UNSMIS) ends on 20 July. Council The Council’s ad-hoc Working Group on UNAMID’s mandate until 31 July 2012. members will have two briefings in consulta- Conflict Prevention and Resolution in • S/RES/1982 (17 May 2011) extended tions—likely from UN-Arab League Joint Africa might also provide a useful forum for the mandate of the Panel of Experts Special Envoy and High Com- discussing strategies to foster negotia- until 19 February 2012. missioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay. tions between Sudan and the rebel groups • S/RES/1593 (31 March 2005) referred The Secretary-General’s UNSMIS report is in Darfur. the situation in Darfur to the ICC. expected in early July and will include Secretary-General’s Reports Council Dynamics options for the mission’s future. At press There is widespread support for reconfi­ • S/2012/231 (17 April 2012) was the time, it remained unclear if the mandate guring and reducing the size of UNAMID. most recent quarterly report of the would be renewed and if so in what capacity. Several Council members believe that, Secretary-General on UNAMID. Key Recent Developments especially in an era of financial austerity, • S/2012/166 (19 March 2012) contained The overall level of violence in Syria has UNAMID should be able to fulfil its mandate the Framework for AU and UN facilita- escalated dramatically with a qualitative with a smaller force level through enhanced tion of the Darfur peace process. shift in military positions. The UN estimates operational efficiency. However, although • S/2011/252 (15 April 2011) was on 10,000 dead due to the crisis and other several members believe that the security implementation of the Darfur Political monitoring groups reporting casualties as situation in Darfur has improved in recent Process. high as 14,000.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 11 On 7 June, Annan briefed Council mem- Annan’s deputy, Nasser al-Kidwa, briefed On 26 June NATO condemned Syria’s bers saying that the violence was worse Council members on 26 June on the plan- shooting down of a Turkish F-4 Phantom jet than before the 12 April deadline for the ning for the Action Group meeting. During on 22 June. In a 24 June letter to the Coun- cessation of violence, the government of the same consultations, DPKO head Hervé cil, Turkey said it considered the attack a Syria was primarily responsible for not Ladsous said the violence prevented hostile act by Syria and reported that the implementing the six-point plan, UNSMIS UNSMIS from resuming its activities. (At unarmed jet had been shot down in interna- had been deliberately targeted and there press time, there were reports of explosions tional airspace without warning after it had needed to be consequences for non-com- in Damascus on 28 June as well as clashes strayed into Syrian airspace. pliance with the six-point plan. and shelling earlier in the week near where On 26 June, Assad swore in a new cabinet the elite Republican Guard is located. Gov- Prior to this briefing, Council members held saying that Syria now faced a real situation ernment shelling of Homs has been severe an interactive dialogue with Arab League of war. The cabinet was formed by Prime in June despite appeals by UNSMIS and Secretary-General Nabil al-Araby on the Minister Riyad Hajib—appointed on 6 ICRC for a pause to evacuate civilians.) League’s 2 June resolution urging the June—with the heads of the defence, inte- Security Council to take measures to On 27 June Annan announced the Action rior and foreign ministries remaining the ensure the protection of civilians in Syria. Group would meet in Geneva at ministerial- same. The SNC dismissed the new govern- (Syria was a focus of the Council’s 25 June level on 30 June to discuss ways to ment as illegitimate. open debate on the protection of civilians.) implement the six-point plan—in particular a Human Rights-Related Syrian-led political transition. (It seems this Incidents affecting UNSMIS continued in Developments proposal calls for an interim, unity govern- June. Media reports indicate that as many ment that does not specify President Bashar In a 1 June special session on Syria, the as 78 people were killed in Mazraat al- al-Assad’s resignation but rather stipulates Human Rights Council (HRC) adopted a Qubeir near Hama on 6 June by government such a government could not include fig- resolution tasking its Commission of forces and pro-government militias (Shabi- ures who jeopardise stability.) Besides the Inquiry on Syria to conduct a special hah). When UNSMIS reached the site on 8 P5, invited participants include Iraq, Kuwait inquiry into May’s el-Houleh attacks and June, the village was empty, with evidence and Qatar in their relevant Arab League invited the Special Envoy to brief the HRC of shelling, burned homes and tank tracks; capacities; the Secretaries-General of the during its current session (A/HRC/RES/ there were local reports that most of the Arab League and the UN; the EU; and Tur- S-19/1). Annan’s deputy, Jean Marie- bodies had been removed. (UNSMIS was key. (Iran and Saudi Arabia weren’t invited.) Guéhenno, briefed the HRC on 27 June. shot at and obstructed from reaching the site on its 7 June attempt.) On 11 June, Regarding the Syrian opposition, Abdel Also on 27 June, the Commission’s head, Annan expressed concern about the use of Basset Sayda, a Kurd, was elected to lead Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro, updated the HRC mortars, helicopters and tanks in el-Haffa the Syrian National Council (SNC) on 10 after returning from his first visit to near Lattakia. UNSMIS reached the town on June after Burhan Ghalioun resigned on 23 Damascus between 23-25 June. (The 14 June, reporting that it appeared deserted May due to criticism that the SNC was not Commission’s final report is expected in with many government buildings burnt and inclusive enough. Sayda has called on September.) He said the human rights situ- a strong stench of dead bodies. (UNSMIS Assad to leave office and urged defections ation in Syria had deteriorated rapidly was also shot at and obstructed from reach- from the Syrian government. noting a shift to increasingly militarised ing the town on its 12 June attempt.) fighting. Regarding the el-Houleh attacks, Media reports indicate several high-level the Commission considered that forces On 16 June UNSMIS head, Major General defections by Syrian military officers, includ- loyal to the government may have been Robert Mood, decided to suspend mission ing an air force colonel who flew his jet to responsible for many of the deaths. In its activities due to the continued deliberate Jordan on 21 June and a general, two colo- conclusions, the Commission considered targeting of the mission and related security nels, two majors, and thirty soldiers who that government forces and the Shabiha concerns. (Media reports at the time indi- defected to Turkey on 24 June. have perpetrated unlawful killings, arbitrary cated the government’s use of attack Various Syrian opposition groups, includ- arrest and detention, and torture including helicopters and opposition fighters in pos- ing the SNC, met in Brussels on 24-25 June sexual violence against women, children session of anti-tank capabilities.) Mood to work on a common platform for a demo- and men. The Commission also detailed briefed Council members on 19 June on cratic transition in Syria that could bridge violations by anti-government forces developments and the suspension. rifts over views on military intervention, dia- including extra-judicial execution and tor- On 22 June, Annan said it was time for logue with the Assad regime and Islamic ture of government forces and/or their countries with influence to raise the level of political parties. alleged supporters, abductions of civilians pressure on the parties and that planning and government forces and the use of chil- The next Friends of Syria meeting is slated was underway for an Action Group meeting dren as porters, messengers and cooks for 6 July in Paris. (The Friends of Syria on Syria in Geneva on 30 June. (The idea exposing them to risk. (The Secretary- Working Group on Sanctions met on 6 June for the Action Group originated as a pro- General’s recent report on Children and in Washington, D.C.) posal for a “contact group” during the 7 Armed Conflict also listed Syria as a perpe- June UNSMIS consultations.) trator of grave violations against children.)

12 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Key Issues Options The key issue for the Council is the broken The Secretary-General’s UNSMIS recom- commitment by the Syrian government to mendations might include: SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT withdraw troops and heavy weapons from n withdrawal of the mission; Monthly population centres. The opposition’s more n reducing the mission to a small political July 2012 sophisticated tactics, including in its offen- office with liaison tasks and limited verifi- FORECAST sive posture, have become a complicating cation and reporting capacity; and be an effective calming presence on factor over the past month. Additionally, n maintaining the mission with its current the 4 June declaration by the Free Syrian mandate and observer levels; or the ground (as well as its own safety). Sev- eral Council members think that if the crisis Army that it was no longer committed to n enhancing the mission by including more the cessation of violence is another com- military and civilian observers. continues to deteriorate and the mission is plicating factor. unable to resume its activities then It seems the most likely option—in the UNSMIS should not be extended in its cur- A related issue is the militarisation of the absence of a political breakthrough and if rent configuration. crisis with implications that the situation is the level of violence persists—would be to evolving toward a full-scale civil war. retain a small political mission. A further Council members see signs of increasing option, if such a reduction occurs, is to frustration from Annan at the lack of progress Another issue is whether the opposition will maintain a provision for the redeployment and note that he has taken a more critical be sufficiently galvanised to hold talks with of military observers in the event that there posture vis-à-vis the Syrian government and the Syrian government in the event that the is again a conducive environment. its commitments and responsibilities. There political dialogue gets underway. (On 28 is a sense that Annan may be close to end- June the SNC said that if Annan’s proposal It appears highly unlikely that the Secretary- ing his mediation efforts if there is not a for an interim government is not explicit that General will include force protection in his meaningful outcome on 30 June. Assad must step down then they would find recommendations. DPKO’s view is that it unacceptable.) unarmed monitors more transparently con- It seems Council members are aware that vey the message that UNSMIS is there to a more concerted approach by the Coun- UNSMIS-related issues that will need to be liaise, observe and report and does not cil, particularly the P5, and the international addressed if the mission is to be renewed in have a mandate to use force. community is needed if mediation efforts its current capacity include: are to succeed and to avoid a full-scale n safety and freedom of movement and An option for the Council to encourage civil war. access for UN personnel; implementation of the six-point plan could However, the strain among the P5 is palpable. n the lack of a finalised status of mission be a Chapter VII resolution with a credible agreement; and threat of targeted sanctions (travel bans Fundamental differences remain over how a Syrian political transition can come about. n the lack of independent air support. and assets freeze) and perhaps even an arms embargo, given the increasingly mili- While Russia has publicly said that it is not Underlying Problems tarised nature of the conflict. Such a insisting Assad stay in power, it does not want Shelling and the use of heavy weapons by resolution could set out timelines for prog- any Council involvement in regime change. the government continue while opposition ress on the six-point plan with sanctions if This dynamic seemed to be in play vis-à-vis armed groups appear more capable both in benchmarks are not met. Annan’s proposed plan for a unity govern- terms of organisation and weaponry. Media ment. (Some Council members were under reports indicate Russia is attempting to Alternatively, given the severity and the the impression that Russia had accepted this send refurbished attack helicopters to Syria duration of the crisis, a more robust Chapter plan as a basis for an outcome from the Action under an existing contract. The US is pro- VII option for the Council could be a resolu- Group meeting. However, it seems Russia still viding logistics and communications tion imposing sanctions with a timeline for has several concerns in that regard.) These assistance to the opposition. Media reports the removal of such measures directly issues are expected to come up during the indicate the US—while not providing arms linked to progress on the six-point plan. meeting between US Secretary of State, Hill- to the opposition—might be providing intel- ary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister, If the Action Group meeting is productive, ligence assistance in vetting which Sergey Lavrov, on 29 June in St. Petersburg the Council has the option to endorse the anti-government fighters receive weapons. on the eve of the Action Group meeting. outcome and perhaps enforce implemen- Increasing tension between Turkey and tation through the calibrated pressure It seems some Council members have Syria over the downed jet, Turkish mili- mentioned above in a Chapter VII resolu- heightened expectations for an Action Group tary build-up on the border and issues tion imposing sanctions or the threat outcome, especially as there was no break- around the Syrian wing of the Kurdistan of sanctions. through during the 18 June meeting between Workers Party (PKK), which is outlawed Council and Wider Dynamics US President Barack Obama and Russian in Turkey, and the spill-over effects of the President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of Council members are unanimous in their Syrian situation to Lebanon and beyond, the G20. On the other hand, several Council concern about the devastating level of vio- all have the potential to negatively impact members are concerned that the deadlock in lence, which has already significantly regional security. the Council has led to a process-oriented undermined UNSMIS’s ability to operate approach towards the crisis instead of a

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 13 substantive response (a dynamic that the Palestinian Territories in early July. Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat and Action Group may simply reinforce). They are Israeli Vice-Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz in Key Recent Developments uneasy that the Council might soon be in the Washington, D.C. Erekat asked the US to When Serry last briefed the Council on 29 position of having to react to a catastrophe exert pressure on Israel to stop settlement May, he said that a continuously stalled they all saw on the horizon versus having a expansion and release Palestinian prison- peace process and continued Israeli set- proactive and effective response now. ers in order to resume negotiations. Mofaz tlement activity would move the situation said Israel would resume negotiations with- Council members are aware that a Chapter towards a one-state reality. (On 14 May, out preconditions and suggested the need VII resolution is a possible next step. Russia the EU criticised Israeli settlement policy, for an interim agreement on security and and China are still opposed to such mea- saying that it posed a threat to the two- borders. (On 30 May, Israeli Minister of sures. However, given the increasing levels state solution.) Defense Ehud Barak indicated Israel might of violence and the suspension of UNSMIS On 19 June, Assistant Secretary-General find it necessary to unilaterally impose an activities, it seems a significant majority of for Political Affairs Oscar Fernández interim agreement.) Council members might be more comfort- Taranco briefed the Council. He reported able with a Chapter VII approach than was Russian President Vladimir Putin visited on several developments that posed a chal- the case a month ago. Israel on 25 June and the Occupied Pales- lenge to creating any positive environment tinian Territories on 26 June where he said for peace talks including: announcements UN Documents that unilateral actions (in reference to settle- of new Israeli settlement construction, Security Council Resolution ments and the stalled peace process) are increased clashes between Israeli settlers not constructive. Abbas asked Putin to con- • S/RES/2043 (21 April 2012) estab- and Palestinians, hunger strikes by Pales- sider convening an international conference lished UNSMIS. tinian prisoners held by Israel and significant in Moscow on the peace process—an idea Secretary-General’s Reports exchanges of fire between Israel and Gaza originally proposed by Russia in December in late June along with serious security inci- • S/2012/363 (25 May 2012) was the 2008 in resolution 1850. first UNSMIS report. dents on the Egyptian-Israeli border. • S/2012/376 (22 May 2012) was on At press time, it seemed possible that Fernández Taranco also noted that the clo- protection of civilians and noted Syria Abbas might meet with Mofaz on 1 July sure of Gaza was entering its sixth year. On as an issue of concern. in Ramallah. 13 June, OCHA head Valerie Amos said the • S/2012/261 (26 April 2012) was on blockade of Gaza affects 1.6 million Pales- Despite the recent activity around the peace children and armed conflict and listed tinians, with 80 percent of families there process and several high-level meetings, Syria as a perpetrator of grave viola- dependent on humanitarian aid. Restric- there has been little progress towards meet- tions against children. tions on the movement of goods and ing the timeline set out by the Quartet on 23 Security Council Letters people amount to collective punishment in September 2011 for an agreement by the • S/2012/394 (4 June 2012) contained contravention of international law. (On 14 end of 2012. (Jordan hosted a series of the 2 June Arab League resolution June, a similar statement was jointly exploratory talks in January. The most urging the Security Council to protect released by fifty UN agencies and NGOs.) recent direct talks started in September civilians in Syria. 2010 and quickly ended that same month Regarding the peace process, Palestinian over the issue of settlements. Previous President Mahmoud Abbas sent a letter to direct talks were terminated in late 2008 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the outbreak of the Gaza war.) Israel/Palestine on 15 April, outlining the Palestinian Authority’s position on renewing direct Analysts are of the opinion that both par- Expected Council Action talks based on 1967 borders and ceasing ties have focused on strengthening their In late July the Security Council will hold its all settlement activity and warning that the domestic constituencies and there is quarterly open debate on the Middle East two-state solution might not be possible unlikely to be any substantive progress on with a likely focus on the fragile situation on if the status-quo continues. Netanyahu direct talks before the US presidential the ground, which could be exacerbated by responded on 12 May, calling for a return to election in November. On 8 May, Netan- regional developments and the failure to talks without preconditions. yahu formed a new coalition government revive in any meaningful way the Israel/ with Mofaz’s Kadima party, giving him 94 Palestine peace process. Envoys of the Quartet—comprising the EU, out of 120 votes in parliament. On 16 May, Russia, the UN and the US—met on 15 At press time, it was unclear whether newly Abbas formed a new cabinet followed by June in Brussels, following up the 11 April appointed Under-Secretary-General for an agreement on 20 May between Fatah meeting in Washington, D.C. The Quartet’s Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman or Special and Hamas to prepare for elections and a 11 April statement noted increasing fragility Coordinator Robert Serry would brief the unity government. on the ground and welcomed plans for dia- Council prior to the open debate. logue between the parties. On 3 April the ICC prosecutor’s office said It was also expected that High Commis- that it was unable to proceed with an inves- On 20 June, US Secretary of State Hillary sioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay tigation of the 2008-2009 Gaza war as it did Clinton held separate meetings with chief would brief the Council on the Occupied not have the authority to determine if Pales-

14 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org tine was a “state” for the purposes of the Options regarding the February invitation Rome Statute. This decision was in from the Palestinian Observer Mission for response to the January 2009 declaration the Council to undertake a visiting mis- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT by the Palestinian Authority recognising the sion to the Occupied Palestinian Monthly ICC’s jurisdiction in its territory. Territories, including East Jerusalem, seem limited. It seems that both an official July 2012FORECAST Human Rights-Related visiting mission by the Security Council Developments and the back-up option for permanent solution and unanimously endorsed At press time, the report on the impli­ representatives to visit in their national the Quartet’s Road Map. cations of Israeli settlements on the capacity seem highly unlikely. Security Council Meeting Records rights of Palestinians in the Occupied Council Dynamics Palestinian Territories, including East • S/PV.6788 (19 June 2012) and The US has an established position that the Jerusalem, had not yet been circulated S/PV.6775 (29 May 2012) were the Council is not the appropriate body for (A/HRC/20/13). It was expected to be most recent regular monthly briefings establishing parameters regarding the considered during the current session on the Middle East. Israel/Palestine peace process. This posi- of the Human Rights Council. (The • S/PV.6757 (23 April 2012) was the tion is likely to remain particularly rigid in the report was requested in resolution A/ most recent open debate on the near term due to domestic political con- HRC/RES/19/17 of 22 March.) The regu- Middle East. cerns in the run-up to the November lar consideration by the Human Rights presidential election. Council of the Occupied Palestinian Territories was scheduled for 2 July. Few, if any, Council members would dis- Lebanon agree that the fundamentals of any Key Issues agreement must be reached through Expected Council Action The key issue is whether the Council can direct talks. However, most consider that In July, Council members are expected to play any constructive role in the Israel/Pal- this does not necessarily rule out a be briefed by Special Coordinator Derek estine peace process. Council role in the peace process. Never- Plumbly in consultations on the Secretary- General’s report on the implementation Another issue is the serious humanitarian theless, the Council is unlikely to take any of resolution 1701 of August 2006 which and security situation in Gaza. action to breathe life into the peace pro- cess despite reports from the Secretariat called for a cessation of hostilities between Underlying Problems that the situation on the ground is unsus- Hezbollah and Israel. No formal action For the Palestinian Authority, continued tainable and undermines the possibility is expected. Israeli settlement activity remains the key of a two-state solution. The mandate of the UN Interim Force in impediment to the resumption of direct Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires on 31 August. negotiations. Meanwhile, Israel urges talks Council members are aware of the fragile without preconditions. It has also said it will situation but have found it difficult to forge Key Recent Developments not negotiate with a Palestinian government a role for the Security Council that might The Secretary-General’s periodic 1701 that includes Hamas. positively impact the peace process. Cur- report was due on 30 June. It was expected rently, the Council is at a standstill on to portray the situation in southern Leba- Israel’s position on the closure of Gaza is Israel/Palestine because an overwhelming non as relatively stable and track ongoing unlikely to shift as it views Gaza, under the amount of political energy is being con- issues, such as Israeli-occupied northern de facto authority of Hamas, as a significant sumed by the Syrian crisis, with little left Ghajar, demarcation of the Blue Line, security threat. over to confront the particularly rigid US Israeli over-flights, security along the line Options position on this issue. of buoys and other maritime issues and Since it seems unlikely that the Council will how the situation in Syria continues to UN Documents be able to take any action on the larger impact Lebanon. political issue, an option might be to focus Security Council Resolutions The upcoming 1701 report will also likely on the situation in Gaza, which has now • S/RES/1860 (8 January 2009) called note the positive development that the Leb- entered its sixth year under closure and for an immediate ceasefire leading to anese national dialogue reconvened on 11 where there are significant humanitarian the full withdrawal of Israeli forces June, issuing a statement committing the 8 and security concerns. Perhaps the Council from Gaza and the sustained March and 14 March coalitions to Prime could request a briefing from Amos keeping reopening of Gaza’s crossing points. Minister Najib Mikati’s policy to “disassoci- in mind the January 2009 resolution 1860, • S/RES/1850 (16 December 2008) ate” Lebanon from major international which urged sustained reopening of cross- supported the Annapolis peace decisions on Syria. Mikati, who heads a ing points in Gaza. Following such a process and its commitment to the Hezbollah-led cabinet, has emphasised the briefing, the Council might wish to issue a irreversibility of bilateral negotiations. policy’s importance to maintain stability statement expressing concern and reiterat- • S/RES/1515 (19 November 2003) within Lebanon. The national dialogue ing the importance of fully implementing stated the necessity for a two-state reconvened on 25 June focusing on the resolution 1860.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 15 sensitive issue of weapons outside state hailed the ship during a regular exercise April 2008, when the Council last control. (This process has been stalled with the Lebanese navy); and issued a presidential statement on resolu- since November 2010 over the issue of n on 8 May Lebanese customs authorities tion 1701. However, Council members will Hezbollah’s arms.) At press time, the next in Tripoli found ammunition aboard a likely begin preliminary discussions on session was slated for 24 July. container ship. UNIFIL’s forthcoming renewal during the July consultations. Security incidents in the south seem to On 20 May a street battle in Beirut between have been minor compared to previous pro- and anti-Syrian Sunni groups left two Council Dynamics reporting periods. On 23 April an explosion people dead and 18 injured. Media reports Council members agree that UNIFIL is an in Tyre injured seven people. (Similar inci- indicate the incident occurred after a important stabilising factor between Israel dents occurred in Tyre on 16 November prominent anti-Syrian Sunni cleric was and Lebanon—especially in light of the cur- and 28 December 2011. Media reports indi- shot and killed at an army checkpoint in rent developments in Syria. However, cate the targeted areas were popular with northern Lebanon. achieving a permanent ceasefire seems UN staff.) remote and Council members realise that Assistant Secretary-General for Political continued quiet in southern Lebanon may On 20 June the UNIFIL force commander Affairs Oscar Fernández Taranco on 19 at present be the only achievable goal. briefed (S/PV.6789) the Council as part of a June reported (S/PV.6788) that the situation larger meeting on UN peacekeeping opera- in the north remained fragile, citing a 1 June Most Council members agree that arms tions. He said that UNIFIL is an effective tool outbreak of violence between Sunni and smuggling and disarmament remain key to maintain the cessation of violence but Alawite neighbourhoods in Tripoli. He also concerns but seem to accept that progress that it cannot tackle the larger political issue reported on Syrian incursions in northern is only likely in the nexus of the recently of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah Lebanon that resulted in two deaths. There revived inter-Lebanese dialogue and and that it is vital to take advantage of the had also been several incidents of abduc- improvement on the Israel-Syria track, relative calm UNIFIL’s presence has cre- tions of Lebanese citizens who had been which seems indefinitely postponed given ated to establish a permanent ceasefire and taken across the border to Syria; most had the current Syrian crisis. a long-term solution of the conflict. been released. Council members underscore the impor- The upcoming report may also update Regarding the Special Tribunal for Leba- tance of the Tribunal’s independence and do Council members on the 12 March findings non, the trial chamber held sessions in June not foresee any Council role in its activities. from DPKO’s strategic review of UNIFIL to hear arguments challenging the estab- France is the lead country on Lebanon in which identified three priorities: lishment and jurisdiction of the Tribunal. A the Council. n enhancing coordination between UNIFIL, decision is expected by the end of July. the UN country team and the Special (Similar motions against other tribunals UN Documents Coordinator’s office; established under a Chapter VII resolution Security Council Resolutions n increasing the involvement of Lebanese have all been rejected in the past.) The trial security institutions in implementing res- in absentia of those accused in the assas- • S/RES/2004 (30 August 2011) olution 1701 in the south; and sination of former Lebanese Prime Minister renewed UNIFIL until 31 August 2012 n increasing the capacity of the Lebanese Rafiq Hariri and 22 others is not anticipated and requested a strategic review. Armed Forces to attain sustained security until late 2012 at the earliest. • S/RES/1757 (30 May 2007) estab- control in the south. lished the Special Tribunal for Key Issues Lebanon to investigate the February Regarding the spill-over effects of the The key issue for the Council is how to 2005 assassination of former Leba- Syrian crisis in Lebanon and allegations of encourage Israel and Lebanon to move nese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and arms smuggling, Terje Rod-Larsen, Special from the status quo — cessation of hos- 22 others. Envoy for implementation of resolution tilities — toward a ceasefire. But the • S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) called 1559, reported to Council members during current regional political climate makes for a cessation of hostilities between his 8 May briefing that the Secretary- the likelihood of near-term progress on Hezbollah and Israel. General had raised the issue of cross-border this issue remote. Secretary-General’s Reports arms transfers and the need for improved Other issues include recurring Israeli over- border control with Beirut during a visit in • S/2012/244 (20 April 2012) was the flights and its occupation of Ghajar in January. On 13 June, Plumbly said that the latest report on resolution 1559. violation of resolution 1701 and the fact that UN is concerned that Lebanon not become • S/2012/124 (28 February 2012) was Hezbollah maintains significant military a conduit for the flow of weapons to Syria. the latest report on resolution 1701. capacity in violation of resolutions 1559 The upcoming 1701 report is likely to note Security Council Letters and 1701. two incidents of concern: • S/2012/151 (12 March 2012) was the n on 28 April the Lebanese navy seized Options strategic review of UNIFIL requested in weapons from a ship, allegedly bound for The Council’s most likely option is to take resolution 2004. rebel groups in Syria (apparently UNIFIL no action, as has been the practice since

16 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org press time it was unclear whether the Coun- Other Relevant Facts cil would consider the report in July. Special Coordinator for Lebanon SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Key Recent Developments Derek Plumbly (UK) Monthly A number of notable political developments Special Envoy for the Implementation of continued to highlight divisions amongst July 2012 Security Council Resolution 1559 FORECAST Iraq’s political elite. On 30 April, the Higher Terje Rod-Larsen (Norway) Judicial Council (HJC) brought further Violent incidents continued to mar Iraq’s UNHCR figures for Syrian Refugees in charges against Vice-President Tariq al- security. Reportedly a total of 132 Iraqis Lebanon as of 27 June 2012 Hashemi in the killing of six judges. On 8 died and a further 248 were wounded in 24,024 Syrian refugees registered by the May, Interpol issued a Red Notice alert for attacks in May. Moreover, by 18 June, a UN in Lebanon with an additional 5,250 the arrest of al-Hashemi, who was in Istan- series of bombings and attacks across Iraq pending registration. bul at the time. (An Interpol Red Notice had reportedly resulted in at least 135 UNIFIL Force Commander seeks the arrest or provisional arrest of deaths and more than 500 injured. wanted persons with a view to extradition.) Maj. Gen. Paolo Serra () On 11 May, Turkish President Abdullah Gül On the issue of , in an 11 June Size and Composition of UNIFIL as of said in response to a press question that al- UNAMI statement, Kobler “urged the 31 May 2012 Hashemi was receiving medical treatment remaining residents of Camp Ashraf to relo- Authorised: 15,000 troops in Turkey. On 15 May, a trial in absentia cate to Camp Hurriya without delay.” Current: 11,845 military personnel commenced, with al-Hashemi continuing to (Camp Ashraf, situated in Diyala province, Troop Contributors: Armenia, Austria, deny the allegedly politically motivated once housed more than 3,000 Iranian exiles Bangladesh, Belarus, Belgium, Brazil, charges against him. belonging to the Mujahedin-e Khalq Iran Brunei, , China, Croatia, [MEK], an organisation opposed to the gov- Cyprus, Denmark, El Salvador, France, On 13 April, Faraj al-Haidari, head of the ernment in Tehran and also on the US FYR of Macedonia, Germany, Ghana, Independent High Electoral Commission terrorist list. Some two-thirds of the resi- Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, India, (IHEC), was detained on suspicion of mis- dents moved to the new camp after UNAMI Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, Nepal, using state funds, according to a statement signed a memorandum of understanding Nigeria, Portugal, Qatar, Republic of released by the HJC. Commenting on the with the government of Iraq on 25 Decem- Korea, Serbia, , Slovenia, arrest, Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr said in ber 2011. However, the MEK has reportedly Spain, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Timor-Leste a 14 April press statement that Prime Minis- halted its transfer of the remaining residents and Turkey ter Nuri al-Maliki was “seeking to postpone and has reduced contact with the Iraqi gov- or cancel the election.” (Al-Maliki has been Duration ernment and the UN.) repeatedly accused of seeking to consoli- March 1978 to present; mandate expires date control over the IHEC, whose Gennady Tarasov, the High-Level Coordi- 31 August 2012 independence is viewed as essential in nator for Iraq-Kuwait missing persons and Cost ensuring that the provincial elections early property, briefed Council members in con- 1 July 2011 to 30 June 2012: $545.47 next year and parliamentary elections in sultations on the latest report of the million (A/C.5/66/14) 2014 are free and fair.) Secretary-General (S/2012/443) on 19 June. Council members released a press On 28 April, senior Iraqi politicians met in statement (SC/10680) the next day stating Arbil, including President Jalal Talabani; they were “encouraged by the recent posi- Iraq Speaker of Parliament Osama al-Nujaifi; tive developments in Iraqi-Kuwaiti bilateral Massud Barzani, President of the autono- relations.” Council members also sup- Expected Council Action mous Kurdistan region; Iyad Allawi, head of ported the Secretary-General’s opinion that The Council is due to receive the the Sunni-backed Iraqiya bloc; and al-Sadr. both sides should begin exploring other Secretary-General’s report on the UN In a statement, the leaders called for “mech- arrangements on Iraq-Kuwait issues. The Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) and a anisms that can solve the instability” and financing of the high-level coordinator was briefing on its contents and developments highlighted “the necessity of looking into renewed for another six months. in the country from Martin Kobler, Special solutions to end the (political) crisis.” Representative of the Secretary-General Human Rights-Related and head of UNAMI. On 2 June, Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al- Developments Mutlak said in a statement that “Maliki The Council seems likely to extend staying on as prime minister will expose According to a joint report published on the mandate of UNAMI, which expires on national unity to danger and will lead to the 30 May by the Human Rights Office of 28 July. division of the country.” UNAMI and the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, “the The Council also expects the second report Kobler encouraged all parties to engage in human rights situation in Iraq remains of the Secretary-General on the post-Devel- inclusive dialogue following a meeting with fragile as the country continues its transi- opment Fund for Iraq (DFI) mechanism. At Talabani and Barzani on 13 June. tion from years of dictatorship, conflict

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 17 Council and Wider Dynamics and violence to peace and democracy.” Kuwaiti belongings. Most Council members continue to view Commenting on the report, Kobler • S/2012/332 (4 May 2012) was from the Iraq as a routine issue. Some Council added that it “highlights a number of President of the Governing Council of members feel that the current mandate of shortcomings, some of which are of seri- the UN Compensation Commission to UNAMI is peripheral and that, as a political ous concern and need to be urgently the President of the Council. mission, it should be more focused on mit- addressed by the Iraqi authorities. There Security Council Meeting Record igating Iraq’s domestic political impasse is no democracy without respect for and the ensuing violence. These members • S/PV.6747 (10 April 2012) was human rights.” feel that there remains a serious threat to Kobler’s briefing to the Council. Key Issues Iraq’s overall stability under the current Security Council Press Statements The key issue for the Council is to deter- volatile political and security climate. How- • SC/10680 (20 June 2012) renewed mine UNAMI’s contribution towards the ever, other members do not view the surge the funding for the high-level coordi- stability of Iraq. in violence following the US withdrawal as nator for Iraq-Kuwait missing persons particularly abnormal. and property. Another key issue for the Council is the • SC/10490 (15 December 2011) ongoing high level of sectarian violence in The US is the lead country on Iraq issues in renewed the funding for the high-level the aftermath of the arrest warrant issued general, and the UK is the lead on Iraq- coordinator for Iraq-Kuwait missing for al-Hashemi. Kuwait issues. persons and property. A closely related issue is the extent to UN Documents • SC/10307 (30 June 2011) welcomed which UNAMI can be helpful in mitigating the Iraqi government’s assumption of Security Council Resolutions this situation. autonomy over the DFI. • S/RES/2001 (28 July 2011) extended A further issue for the Council is whether UNAMI’s mandate until 28 July 2012. Other Relevant Facts the post-DFI mechanism is functioning in a • S/RES/1958 (15 December 2010) ter- Special Representative of the Secretary- satisfactory fashion. minated the Oil-for-Food programme General in Iraq and head of UNAMI and established an escrow account. Underlying Problems • S/RES/1957 (15 December 2010) ter- Martin Kobler (Germany) Different political blocs remain divided over minated the weapons of mass Secretary-General’s High-Level power-sharing, with key ministerial posts, destruction-related Chapter VII mea- Coordinator for Iraq-Kuwait Missing such as defence and interior, being vacant Persons and Property sures and urged Iraq to ratify the for months. Additional Protocol to the Comprehen- Gennady Tarasov (Russia) Options sive Safeguards Agreement with the On UNAMI, the Council could renew the IAEA as soon as possible. mandate without substantial changes to its • S/RES/1956 (15 December 2010) Yemen scope or composition. The Council could extended the DFI and related immuni- also address Iraq’s political situation in the ties a final time until 30 June 2011 and Expected Council Action same resolution, including some or all of affirmed that five percent of Iraqi pro- In July, the Council is expecting a briefing in the following elements: ceeds from oil sales would continue to consultations on the situation in Yemen by n expressing concern about the impact of be deposited into a compensation the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser, violence on Iraqi civilians; fund after that date. Jamal Benomar. n urging Iraq’s political leaders to resolve Secretary-General’s Reports No Council action is expected at this point. differences through political dialogue; • S/2012/443 (14 June 2012) was the and Key Recent Developments latest report of the Secretary-General n urging Iraq to finalise the formation of its On 29 May, Benomar briefed the Council regarding Iraq-Kuwait issues. government by filling all vacant ministe- followed by closed consultations. Benomar • S/2012/185 (29 March 2012) was rial posts based on inclusiveness. presented an alarming picture highlighting the latest Secretary-General’s report interference from former President Ali On the post-DFI issues the Council could on UNAMI. Abdullah Saleh and relatives, to reforms take no action at present while continuing • S/2011/795 (22 December 2011) undertaken by President Abdrabuh Man- to monitor the progress of the post-DFI was the first report of the Secretary- sour Hadi, as a key obstacle that could mechanism until the audit is conducted. General about the UN Compensation “derail Yemen’s fragile transition process.” (The Secretary-General’s report [S/2011/ Fund. Benomar also noted that the security and 795] notes the appointment of the firm Ernst Letters humanitarian situation remain sources of & Young to conduct the 2011 audit of the • S/2012/309 (9 May 2012) was from major concern. DFI and its successor account.) Iraq’s Ambassador Hamid al-Bayati to On 12 June, the Council unanimously the President of the Council, noting adopted resolution 2051, expressing its the handover of some of the missing “readiness to consider further measures,

18 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org including under Article 41” should various factions in Yemen, stated through actions to undermine the government of the official Saba news agency that “the National Unity and the political transition Houthis have agreed to take part in a seri- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT continue. (Under Article 41 of the UN ous dialogue…to resolve the country’s Monthly Charter the Security Council “may decide problems and achieve the objectives of the what measures not involving the use of popular revolution.” (The Houthis, Shia July 2012FORECAST armed force are to be employed to give Muslims living in the remote northwest, effect to its decisions, and it may call have historically been discriminated against Yemen, which could undermine the new upon the Members of the United Nations by the central government. In 2004, the government’s position and the prospects to apply such measures.”) The resolution Houthis launched a rebellion against the for the political transition process. also “stresses that all those responsible government and tensions have remained Options for human rights violations and abuses high despite a ceasefire in 2012. The The Council’s options include: must be held accountable.” Houthis had previously refused to take part n keeping abreast of the developments in in the national dialogue, a crucial element of Furthermore, the resolution focused on the Yemen and receiving regular briefings the transition process.) second phase of the transition process and from Benomar and the Department of called for: The overall security situation continues to Political Affairs; n an all-inclusive National Dialogue Confer- be worrisome. On 21 May, some 96 soldiers n visiting Yemen to send a strong signal ence; died and many more were injured by a uni- about its support for the peaceful and n the restructuring of the security and formed suicide bomber in the midst of a successful transition (a less likely option); armed forces; military parade rehearsal in Sana’a, the day and n transitional justice and national reconcili- before Yemen was to commemorate its n requesting briefings regarding the ation; and National Unity Day. Council members human rights situation and humanitar- n constitutional and electoral reform. immediately condemned the attack in a ian crisis from the relevant UN actors press statement (SC/10656). as well as international and regional On 18 June, the Secretary-General notified organisations. the Security Council of his intention to On 6 May Fahd al-Quso, the leader of Al- establish a small office, consisting of five Qaida in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP), was Council Dynamics staff members, of the Special Adviser on killed in a U.S. drone strike in the southern The apparent unity of the Council on Yemen for an initial period of 12 months. Shabwa province. (Al-Quso was under a Yemen, particularly within the context of The letter also noted that the Special U.S. indictment for his role in the 2000 bomb- its current discussions on Syria, is nota- Adviser will head the office at the level of ing of the American navy destroyer USS ble. It would appear that most Council Assistant Secretary-General. Cole in the harbour of Aden, in which 17 members are concerned about the dete- American sailors were killed and 39 injured.) riorating security, human rights and There were a number of other key domes- humanitarian picture in Yemen. They con- tic and international political developments. Ongoing clashes that started in early May sider that the recent increase in terrorist On 23 May, the Friends of Yemen met at between pro-government forces and an Al- activity further underlines the urgency of ministerial level in Riyadh and agreed to Qaida-affiliated group called Ansar political, military and security reforms. In take concrete steps to assist the country al-Sharia (Partisans of Islamic Law) in the addition, some members emphasise the through its political, economic and secu- southern Abyan province, had reportedly need to distinguish between Al-Qaida- rity reform process before the next led to more than 600 deaths and several related violence and the more traditional ministerial meeting on the margins of the wounded by mid-June. inter-tribal clashes. General Assembly in late September. On 18 June, Maj. Gen. Salim Ali Qatn, head (Saudi Arabia, the UK and Yemen jointly Some P5 members were wary of the refer- of the southern command, was killed when chair the Friends of Yemen, which includes ence to Article 41 in resolution 2051 and its a suicide bomber blew himself up in front of key Gulf countries, the G8 and intergovern- implicit threat of sanctions against Saleh his vehicle in Aden. mental organisations.) and his relatives. However, they set their Key Issues concerns aside and adopted the resolution During informal comments to the media fol- The key issue for the Council is to deter- unanimously as most Council members lowing the adoption of resolution 2051, mine what further role it can play in seem to agree that they pose a serious Tawakul Karman, the Yemeni 2011 Nobel assisting Yemen to foster a peaceful politi- threat and have the capacity to potentially Peace Prize laureate, said that the new res- cal transition that abides by the timetables derail the current phase of transition. As a olution “sends a clear message to those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) result, Council members were able to send people who deny or who are trying to dam- Initiative and the accompanying Imple- a strong signal to any spoilers. age the transitional period in Yemen that mentation Mechanism. they will face the international community.” The UK has the lead in the Council A related issue for the Council is dealing on Yemen. On 31 May, the National Dialogue Commu- with the continuously precarious security, nication Committee, in charge of talks with human rights and humanitarian situation in

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 19 of clandestinely passing Qaddafi a coded UN Documents Other Relevant Facts letter from a fugitive former aide, Moham- Security Council Resolution Special Adviser to the Secretary-General med Ismail.) on Yemen • S/RES/2051 (12 June 2012) focused Members of the Security Council issued a on the second phase of the transition Jamal Benomar (Morocco) press statement (SC/10674) on 15 June, and expressed the Council’s readi- expressing serious concern over the deten- ness to consider further measures, tion of ICC staff members and emphasising including under Article 41 of the Libya Libya’s legal obligation under resolution Charter. 1970 “to cooperate fully with and provide • S/RES/2014 (21 October 2011) Expected Council Action any necessary assistance to the ICC”. endorsed the GCC initiative for a In July, Ian Martin, the Special Representa- peaceful transition of power. tive of the Secretary-General and head of On 22 June, Libyan Attorney General the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Security Council Presidential Statement Abdelaziz al-Hassadi met with the ICC is expected to brief the Council on the latest President, Judge Sang-Hyun Song, at The • S/PRST/2012/8 (29 March 2012) developments in Libya, including the elec- Hague. An ICC statement issued after the noted Council members’ concern tions for a Constituent Assembly now meeting said the Court would investigate over the deterioration in the situation scheduled for 7 July. In addition, it is allegations of wrongdoing by its staff since the transfer of power to Presi- expected that High Commissioner for in Libya. dent Abdrabuh Mansour Hadi on Human Rights Navi Pillay will brief on the 25 February. human rights situation in early July. There were several notable political, consti- Security Council Press Statements tutional and electoral developments. On 29 UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 16 March • SC/10656 (21 May 2012) condemned April, NTC Chairperson Mustafa Abdul Jalil 2013. the suicide attack that killed 96 sol- stated that the NTC had decided to keep diers in Sana’a on 21 May. Key Recent Developments the interim government in place to guaran- • SC/10571 (7 March 2012) condemned On 10 May, the Council received a briefing tee the success of the forthcoming the terrorist attacks that occurred in from Martin in which he said that the high elections. Earlier, on 25 April, Prime Minister Abyan province. expectations for quick progress were Abdurrahim El-Keib had accused members • SC/10553 (22 February 2012) noted straining the political system. He also high- of the NTC of hindering the interim govern- the significance of presidential lighted continuing cases of mistreatment ment’s efforts to hold elections for the elections and encouraged further tran- and torture and raised concern about thou- Constituent Assembly on time. The elec- sitional steps to be taken promptly. sands of prisoners remaining in conflict tions, originally planned to be held on 19 • SC/10460 (28 November 2011) related detention, including some at secret June, were on 10 June postponed to 7 July. welcomed the signing of the GCC detention facilities and not under the con- On 2 May, the NTC adopted several new initiative. trol of the Ministry of Justice. At the same laws, including a law granting immunity to • SC/10296 (24 June 2011) expressed meeting, Ambassador José Filipe Moraes former rebels, saying “there is no punish- grave concern at the deteriorating Cabral (Portugal)—as chair of the Libya ment for acts made necessary by the security and humanitarian situation. Sanctions Committee—provided a regular February 17 revolution.” Another law, Latest Meeting Records update on the Committee’s work, including according to which “praising or glorifying a working document assessing the • S/PV.6776 (29 May 2012) Muammar Qaddafi, his regime, his ideas or regional threats posed by the proliferation • S/PV.6744 (29 March 2012) his sons” was punishable by a prison sen- of arms from Libya and a final report by the Letters tence, was also passed on 2 May but Panel of Experts. revoked on 14 June by the Supreme Court. • S/2012/470 (21 June 2012) was from the President of the Council noting the The Prosecutor of the International Crimi- A number of security-related incidents con- receipt of Secretary-General’s letter. nal Court (ICC), Luis Moreno-Ocampo, tinued to highlight various challenges. On 8 • S/2012/469 (18 June 2012) was briefed the Council on 16 May on the ICC’s May, a group of armed ex-rebels stormed from the Secretary-General to the recent activities, particularly those con- government headquarters in Tripoli, pro- President of the Council noting his cerning Saif al-Islam Qaddafi. The testing the non-payment of cash stipends to intention to establish a small office of prosecutor also briefed on gender-related former rebels. At least one person was the Special Adviser for an initial period crimes and allegations of crimes commit- reported killed and four people wounded. of 12 months. ted by NATO forces as well as by forces under the auspices of the National Transi- Tripoli’s international airport was occupied tional Council (NTC). for several hours on 4 June by members of the Al-Awfea Brigade protesting the reported A four-person ICC-appointed defence detention of their commander by security team has been detained in Zintan following forces in Tripoli. The militia agreed to surren- their visit to Qaddafi on 7 June. (Defence der the airport after a promise from Jalil that counsel Melinda Taylor has been accused their missing commander would be found.

20 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org On 9 and 10 June, clashes between mem- Human Rights-Related bers of the Tabu tribe and the Libya Shield Developments Brigade, a pro-government force, report- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT edly resulted in 23 deaths and more than 50 On 14 May, NATO said in a statement Monthly wounded. Also, on 10 June, Ras Jdir, the that it “did everything possible to mini- July 2012 main border crossing between Libya and mise risks to civilians, but in a complex FORECAST Tunisia, was closed after fighting between military campaign, that risk can never be Libyan armed forces and former rebels over zero.” (The statement was in response to Underlying Issues control of the frontier. a Human Rights Watch report released The divisions within Libya’s political and mili- on the same day that claimed NATO had tary elite have become a growing concern. In a statement on 17 June, Martin expressed failed to acknowledge at least 72 civilian his concerns about the recent resumption Instances of settling old disputes between casualties from the air strikes during its of fighting in a number of Libyan localities, anti and pro-Qaddafi forces, often accom- 2011 Libya campaign.) in which children, women and other panied by human rights violations continue unarmed civilians have been among those On 21 May, the Human Rights Council’s to pose serious challenges. killed, injured and displaced. Working Group on the use of mercenar- Options On 20 June, Nasser al-Manaa, an interim ies postponed its visit to Libya scheduled An option for the Council could be to government spokesman, said that the for 21-25 May, “due to technical rea- encourage, through a presidential state- casualty toll following clashes in Sheguiga sons.” This would have been the group’s ment, the forthcoming government to be and Zintan was 105 dead and more than first visit to assess allegations of the use formed by the Constituent Assembly follow- 500 wounded. (The fighting between the of mercenaries in the recent conflict and ing the 7 July elections, to recommit to the Mashashia tribe and militia from the Gontrar measures taken by the government to long-term state-building, and re-emphasise tribe and Zintan erupted on 11 June.) address this phenomenon. The visit the mandate of UNSMIL. aimed to obtain first-hand information Targeted killings of prominent figures have on the activities of private companies Another option for the Council could be to continued. On 21 June, Judge Jumah offering military assistance, consultancy wait for the formation of the new govern- Hasan al-Jazwi, who was investigating the and security services in Libya and the ment and then reconsider UNSMIL’s murder of Gen. Abdel Fattah Younes, was potential impact of these activities on long-term role in September, consistent shot dead in Benghazi. Younes, who human rights. “The new dates of the visit with resolution 2040. defected from the late Col. Muammar Qad- will be announced to the media as soon Regarding human rights, rule of law and dafi regime shortly after the start of the 17 as possible”, according to the Working transitional justice in Libya, the Council February revolution to become the military Group’s website. could ask for regular briefings from UNSMIL chief of the NTC, was killed on 28 July 2011 and other relevant UN actors on issue spe- in Benghazi. Key Issues Ensuring that the forthcoming elections are cific developments. There have also been several recent inci- free and fair and held in a timely manner is a With regard to the ICC, the Council could dents with international implications. On key issue for the Council. ask for a briefing from the ICC prosecutor to 21 May, the ICRC office in Benghazi was hit receive an update. by a rocket-propelled grenade. The ICRC An overarching issue for the Council contin- office in Misrata was also attacked on 12 ues to be the determination of UNSMIL’s Council Dynamics June, wounding one bystander. On 5 June, long-term role in Libya, in particular, follow- Some Council members seem to acknowl- the premises of the US diplomatic mission ing the elections next month. edge that the Libyans face considerable in Benghazi were targeted with a home- The Council’s role helping to secure the challenges but seek to advance the discus- made bomb. On 12 June, a convoy release of the ICC staff and the implementa- sion on Libya beyond issues related to carrying British Ambassador Dominic tion of resolution 1970 with regard to its resolutions 1970 and 1973 and focus on Asquith was attacked with a rocket-pro- referral of the situation in Libya to the ICC, next steps, including the 7 July election of pelled grenade, slightly injuring two close and any referral-related trials is another the Constituent Assembly and the adoption protection officers. important issue. of a new constitution. However, some Council members are reluctant to highlight On 24 June, Tunisia extradited former Preventing large-scale reprisals and killings various challenges that Libyan authorities Libyan Prime Minister Al-Baghdadi al-Mah- in a post-conflict Libya as well as preventing have struggled with since the toppling of moudi to Tripoli, a decision that Tunisian human rights violations and reported tor- the Qaddafi regime. President Moncef Marzouki considered ture of detainees are closely related issues “illegal” as it was taken without his consent. for the Council. Council members seem to be in agreement (After the fall of Tripoli, al-Mahmoudi fled to that the forthcoming elections would be Tunisia, where he was arrested on 21 Sep- The prevention of proliferation of heavy another significant milestone in the new tember 2011 for illegal entry.) weaponry in Libya as well as the spillover Libya. They are also mindful that any effect in the Sahel region is an ongoing changes to UNSMIL’s mandate would have issue for Council members.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 21 to take into account the new makeup of Council President. coups in the region and the impact this Libyan political and military institutions. • S/2012/178 (23 March 2012) was the would have on international peace and security. (Djinnit previously briefed the Some Council members are particularly working document of the Sanctions Council on 16 January. At the time, he men- alarmed by the detention of the ICC staff Committee assessing the regional tioned the growing insecurity in the Sahel members. To them, it is a clear violation of threats posed by the proliferation region of West Africa, in particular Mali, Libya’s commitment under international of arms. Mauritania and Niger, due to the influx of law. However, other members are hopeful arms from Libya.) for a quick resolution of this matter. Other Relevant Facts Chair of the Sanctions Committee On 6 April, a framework agreement bro- The UK is the lead country on Libya. José Filipe Moraes Cabral (Portugal) kered by ECOWAS resulted in the military junta in Mali agreeing to give up power in UN Documents Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts return for an amnesty and the lifting of sanc- Security Council Resolutions • Simon Dilloway, UK (finance) tions imposed by the West African regional • S/RES/2040 (12 March 2012) • Theodore M. Murphy, US (humanitar- body. The junta also agreed to a timetable extended the mandate of UNSMIL and ian and regional) for a return to constitutional rule and the Panel of Experts by 12 months, • Giovanna Perri, Italy (finance) elections. The Speaker of Parliament, Dion- with a requirement to review and • Salim Raad, Lebanon counda Traoré, was made the new interim adjust the mandate within six months. (heavy weapons) President, ruling with a transitional govern- • S/RES/1973 (17 March 2011) autho- • Savannah de Tessières, France ment (which includes the junta) until rised all necessary measures to (small arms and light weapons) elections within a year. Meanwhile, the protect civilians in Libya and enforce Special Representative of the Secretary- Tuareg rebels captured the three northern the arms embargo, imposed a no-fly General and Head of UNSMIL regions of Mali (Gao, Kidal, Timbuktu) and, zone, strengthened the sanctions Ian Martin (UK) reports say, have since imposed a regime regime and established a panel of of terror in the areas. The humanitarian and experts. human rights situation has worsened in • S/RES/1970 (26 February 2011) those areas, and it is reported that a third of UNOWA (West Africa) referred the situation in Libya to the the people there have fled. ICC, imposed an arms embargo and Expected Council Action During their trip, on 21 May, Council mem- targeted sanctions and established a In July the Council expects to consider the bers held a high-level meeting with sanctions committee. semi-annual report of the Secretary- ECOWAS in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. The par- Security Council Press Statement General on the UN Office for West Africa ticipants included ECOWAS Commission (UNOWA), including an update on the Gulf • SC/10674 (15 June 2012) expressed Chair Kadré Désiré Ouédraogo, as well the of Guinea piracy problem. Said Djinnit, the concern at the detention of the ICC Foreign Ministers of Côte d’Ivoire (current Secretary-General’s Special Representa- staff members. chair of ECOWAS), Burkina Faso, Cape tive and head of UNOWA, will brief. Latest Secretary-General’s Report Verde, Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria • S/2012/129 (1 March 2012) No Council action is envisaged at press time. and Senegal. Benin also attended as the current chair of the AU. On 15 June in New Panel of Experts Report UNOWA’s mandate expires on 31 Decem- York an informal interactive meeting on • S/2012/163 (17 February 2012) ber 2013. Mali, requested by Togo, was held between Meeting Records Key Recent Developments Council members and representatives of • S/PV.6772 (16 May 2012) was Several West African issues have been on the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) Moreno-Ocampo’s briefing to the Council members’ minds in recent weeks, and ECOWAS. The Foreign Minister of Council. both prior and following their trip to the Burkina Faso, Djibrill Yipènè Bassolé, who • S/PV.6768 (10 May 2012) was Martin region from 19-23 May. is leading ECOWAS’ mediation efforts on and Cabral’s briefing to the Council. Mali, provided an update on his efforts and Since 22 March, when soldiers in Mali aban- Other requested a mandate from the Council for doned their faltering campaigns against the planned ECOWAS military deployment • S/2012/471 (20 June 2012) was from Tuareg rebels in the north of the country in Mali. The Council agreed on dispatching the Permanent Representative of and seized power, Mali has been the focus a joint UN-AU-ECOWAS team that would Libya to the Secretary-General and the of intense diplomatic activity involving also have representatives from the EU, Council President conveying informa- ECOWAS, the AU and the UN. On 11 May, , Mauritania, and Niger, to assess tion regarding the arrest of the Djinnit briefed Council members on the situ- the feasibility of deploying an intervention delegation of the ICC. ation in Mali and Guinea-Bissau, where force in Mali. • S/2012/440 (13 June 2012) was soldiers had also seized power on 12 April, Secretary-General’s letter conveying aborting an electoral process. Djinnit On 18 June, the Council issued a press the President of the ICC’s letter to the expressed concern at the resurgence of statement (SC/10676) declaring its readi- ness to consider backing a military

22 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org intervention in Mali as proposed by peace and stability in different regions of the ECOWAS “once additional information has world, in particular in West Africa and the been provided regarding the objectives, Sahel Region, posed by transnational SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT means and modalities of the envisaged organised crime, including illicit weapons Monthly deployment and other possible measures.” and drug trafficking, piracy and armed rob- July 2012 bery at sea, as well as terrorism and its FORECAST Earlier, on 13 June, the Secretary-General increasing links, in some cases, with trans- transmitted a letter (S/2012/439) dated 1 national organised crime and drug Options June from President Boni Yayi of Benin, who trafficking.” The statement followed a high- Options for the Council include: writing in his capacity as chairperson of the level debate on the impact of transnational n receiving the briefing and awaiting more AU, raised the issue of the “very worrying” organised crime on peace and security in information from the joint UN, ECOWAS developments relating to Mali and the wider West Africa and the wider Sahel region. The and AU assessment team; and Sahel. The collapse of the army in Mali, the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN n adopting a presidential statement high- letter said, and “the removal of all state Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) lighting key concerns raised in the structures [have] created the conditions for (S/2012/421) reports that the UN initiated a briefing, most likely regarding the resur- Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), meeting in Libreville, Gabon, from 29-31 gence of coups and the growing threat of along with various organised crime net- May on the issue. At the meeting, a steering terrorism in West Africa. works, to control the entire North (over committee was set up to “lead preparations 800,000 square km).” The rebel groups, Council Dynamics for a summit of heads of state and govern- National Movement for the Liberation of There is strong interest in the work of ment on maritime piracy and armed robbery Azawad (MNLA) and Ansar Eddine, are UNOWA among all Council members, in at sea in the Gulf of Guinea.” The commit- merely fronts for AQIM, the letter asserted, particular the US, the UK and France, tee’s “first priority will be to convene a with the intention to make the Sahel a sanc- which have considerable involvement in meeting of experts from the Gulf of Guinea tuary and training base “for all Salafist and Liberia, Sierra Leone, Côte d’Ivoire and countries and interested partners to develop Islamist groups of the Maghreb and sub- Mali, respectively. Togo, which leads on the first draft of the regional strategy.” Saharan Africa and the global jihadist UNOWA in the Council, has a strong inter- movement.” In addition, the letter said, there Human Rights-Related est in getting a Council resolution on is the proliferation of small arms and light Developments African troop deployment in Mali as well as weapons in the region and “a phenomenon a concerted effort to deal with piracy in the On 18 June, UN High Commissioner for that is no less dangerous, transnational Gulf of Guinea. Human Rights Navi Pillay noted that organised crime, in particular drugs and since the military coup in Mali, the secu- narcotics.” The letter notes that an average UN Documents rity and human rights situation has of 100 tons of cocaine, or 40 percent of Security Council Resolution significantly deteriorated in the region. Europe’s consumption, transit each year Human rights abuses and the disruption • S/RES/2018 (31 October 2011) was a through the Sahel. of basic services in the north of Mali have resolution on the threats of piracy and The letter requested the adoption of a Secu- led to massive displacement towards the armed robbery on the seas in the Gulf rity Council resolution mandating an south and neighbouring countries, exac- of Guinea. “inter-African” force that would rapidly inter- erbating the severe humanitarian crisis Presidential Statements vene in Mali “for the purpose of ridding this in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritania • S/PRST/2012/2 (21 February 2012) part of Africa of the peril of terrorism”. The and Niger. The level of insecurity and was on transnational crime in West resolution should also call for UN support other difficulties severely hampered Africa, including piracy. for the force with “logistics, aircraft and efforts to gain access to affected popula- • S/PRST/2009/32 (8 December 2009) other materiel” that would allow it to restore tions to address the humanitarian and was on threats posed by drug governance and security in Mali. In the human rights situation. trafficking. absence of this, the country would become • S/PRST/2009/20 (10 July 2009) Key Issues “a West African Afghanistan”. (On 12 June, was on the situation in West Africa. The key issue for the Council is determin- the AU PSC, meeting in New York, issued a • S/PRST/2009/11 (5 May 2009) ing the appropriateness and feasibility of communiqué calling on the Security Coun- expressed concern about the resur- an inter-African troop deployment and cil “as a matter of urgency” to “endorse the gence of coups and unconstitutional what level of support the Council may give envisaged deployment of an ECOWAS changes of government in Africa. to the force. force [in Mali] and to lend its full support to Letters the efforts being exerted to this end.”) A related issue is to fashion a policy to coor- • S/2012/439 (13 June 2012) was from On piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, the Council dinate international response to the President Boni Yaya of Benin, Chair- on 21 February issued a presidential state- apparent resurgence of coups in West person of AU, on the situation in Mali. ment (S/PRST/2012/2) expressing concern Africa and the growing threat of terrorism in • S/2010/661 (20 December 2010) about “the serious threats to international the region. extended the mandate of UNOWA for

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 23 elements, including militias and mercenar- was funded by Gbagbo in 2003 in the last a further three years, from 1 January ies.” On 11 June, Ladsous briefed the rounds of the civil war in Liberia—may be 2011 to 31 December 2013. Council on the killings. the key link between the pro-Gbagbo net- Latest Secretary General’s Reports work in Ghana and the restive mercenaries The attack happened two days after Togo— • S/2012/421 (11 June 2012) in the border area. (Gbagbo had accused responding to a request by Côte Press Statement then Liberian President, Charles Taylor, of d’Ivoire— arrested and deported a former supporting anti-government rebels in Côte • SC/10676 (18 June 2012) was on Defence Minister, Moïse Lida Kouassi, who d’Ivoire, and he retaliated by supporting the Council’s readiness to back military served under former Côte d’Ivoire President anti-Taylor MODEL.) in Mali once additional information Laurent Gbagbo. Kouassi is currently provided by ECOWAS. detained in Côte d’Ivoire and is the first On 7 June, after reports about the increas- senior ally of Gbagbo to be captured almost ing threats posed by these militias, Liberia Other Relevant Facts a year after the government of President announced in a statement that it had taken Special Representative of the Alassane Outtara issued an arrest warrant “numerous initiatives” to “mitigate and elim- Secretary-General for 24 allies of Gbagbo. inate the threats of insecurity to both Said Djinnit (Algeria) countries (Liberia and Côte d’Ivoire) posed Four days after the attack on the peace- by the presence of non-state actors along UNOWA: Size and Composition keepers, Côte d’Ivoire announced that it of Mission the vast border areas”. It then announced a had foiled a coup attempt by officers loyal wanted list of ten ex-leaders of MODEL, Staff strength (as of 31 May 2010): 19 to Gbagbo. The government also blamed including Amos Cheyee, Isaac Sayou international civilians, 17 local civilians the killings on a pro-Gbagbo network Chegbo and Charles Blé Goudé. and three military advisers. reportedly operating in neighbouring UNOWA: Duration Ghana and alleged that this network was Violence in which scores of people were Mandate expires on 31 December 2013 funding mercenaries in Liberia operating killed had been ongoing for several months. next to the Ivorian border. In early February DPKO sent an assess- ment mission to Côte d’Ivoire to look at The activities of mercenaries in this border various contentious issues, including secu- area were highlighted in the 18 November Côte d’Ivoire rity relating to overall stability in the country. 2011 report by the Panel of Experts on The mission’s report (S/2012/186), submit- Expected Council Action Liberia (S/2011/757), which the Council dis- ted to the Council on 29 March, expressed In July the Council is expected to renew the cussed on 9 December 2011. A substantial unease about the whereabouts of thou- mandate of the UN Operation in Côte part of that report dealt with the impact of sands of Liberian mercenaries who had d’Ivoire (UNOCI) before it expires on 31 the return of an estimated 4,500 Liberian served in Côte d’Ivoire and about weapons July. Albert Gerard Koenders, the mercenaries whom Gbagbo had hired and caches that are believed to be in the border Secretary-General’s Special Representa- deployed. The report noted that many of areas between Côte d’Ivoire and Liberia. It tive in Côte d’Ivoire and head of UNOCI, will these mercenaries are now engaged in illicit noted that despite the “political will likely brief the Council on developments gold mining and can be easily mobilised. and the Secretary-General’s most recent expressed at the highest levels in Côte report (S/2012/186). Hervé Ladsous, head Additionally, the midterm report of the d’Ivoire and Liberia, so far no national strat- of the Department of Peacekeeping Opera- Group of Experts (GoE) on Côte d’Ivoire egy has been developed in either country to tions (DPKO), is also expected to brief the (S/2011/642), which was submitted on 17 address, in a more comprehensive manner, Council, followed by consultations. October 2011, reported that after the seri- border security and the issue of Ivorian and ous nation-wide violence following the 2010 Liberian former combatants.” Key Recent Developments presidential elections, “thousands of weap- The report, however, did not anticipate the Seven UN peacekeepers from Niger were ons still remain unaccounted for” and these scale of the insecurity, in particular the tar- killed in Côte d’Ivoire on 8 June. The peace- weapons “pose a threat to the stabilisation geting of UN troops and, apparently, the keepers were apparently attacked by of the country.” The report cited the views of threat to the Ivorian government. It noted unknown militia fighters in the southwest of government interlocutors that the threat is only that “incidents by various perpetra- Côte d’Ivoire, near the border with Liberia. particularly significant in the west of the tors continued to take place throughout Eleven others, including local security per- country, bordering Liberia. (The 16 March the country, highlighting the vulnerability sonnel, were also killed. A few hours after final report of the GoE (S/2012/196), reiter- of civilians.” news of the attack reached New York, ated concerns about the need for the the Council issued a press statement Ivorian authorities to effectively address dis- Council members visited the Côte d’Ivoire- (SC/10668), introduced by France, con- armament and related issues.) Liberia border on 22 May during their demning it “in the strongest terms.” The mission to West Africa. Briefing the Council Some reports suggest that Thomas Yaya statement expressed concern about on the visit on 31 May, Deputy Permanent Nimely, a former Liberian Foreign Minister the “prevailing insecurity in western Representative Martin Briens (France), and chairman of the defunct Movement for Côte d’Ivoire and the border area and con- noted that the field visit to western Côte Democracy in Liberia (MODEL)—which tinued cross-border movements of armed d’Ivoire was “a turning point” in the trip. He

24 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org said the Council “was able to take stock of and UNMIL to ensure that the border the new threats to peace and security that regions between the two countries are justify the enhanced UNOCI presence in pacified. SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT that part of the country and strengthened Monthly Options means to protect civilians, including Options include: through inter-mission cooperation with the July 2012FORECAST n adopting a resolution extending the man- United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL).” date of UNOCI and underscoring the He also said that people on the ground importance of the inter-mission coopera- special report by the Secretary- expressed to members of the delegation tion between it and UNMIL; General on UNOCI. “their serious concerns about the move- • S/2011/387 (24 June 2011) was the n and renewing the mandate of UNMIL in ment of weapons, attacks by combatants advance of its 30 September expiry to 28th progress report of the Secretary- based in Liberia, the insecurity caused by ensure more robust action against the General on UNOCI. the traditional Dozo hunters, problems with mercenaries in the border region and Selected Letters the Ivorian security forces, the humanitarian facilitate better coordination between the • S/2012/430 (25 May 2012) was from challenges to returns and the confusion two missions. Jeannot Kouadio-Ahoussou, Prime surrounding land ownership.” Minister of Côte d’Ivoire, requesting Council Dynamics On 11 June, the Secretary-General trans- the extension of the mandate of Following the visit to West Africa from mitted a 25 May letter (S/2012/430) from the UNOCI. 19-23 May, there is consensus among Prime Minister of Côte d’Ivoire, Jeannot • S/2011/577 (15 September 2011) Council members on the need to pacify the Kouadio-Ahoussou, requesting the exten- was from the Secretary-General to the western region of Côte d’Ivoire and partic- sion of the mandate of UNOCI in all its President of the Council on the inter- ularly on the need to maintain inter-mission aspects beyond 31 July, so as to ensure the mission use of three helicopters by cooperation between UNOCI and UNMIL successful conduct of local elections, which UNOCI and UNMIL and the transfer of for that purpose. are expected to take place during the last 150 military and 100 police personnel quarter of this year. France is the lead country in the Council on from UNOCI to UNMIL from 1 October Côte d’Ivoire. to 30 November 2011. Human Rights-Related • S/2011/468 (26 July 2011) Developments UN Documents and S/2011/469 (28 July 2011) was On 13 June, Doudou Diène, the UN inde- Security Council Resolutions an exchange of letters containing the pendent expert on the human rights • S/RES/2025 (14 December 2011) Secretary-General’s intention to situation in Côte d’Ivoire, urged all Ivori- extended the sanctions regime on appoint Albert Gerard Koenders as ans and the international community to Liberia and the mandate of its Panel Special Representative for Côte maintain their commitment to national of Experts. d’Ivoire and head of UNOCI. reconciliation in the aftermath of the • S/RES/2008 (16 September 2011) • S/2011/419 (7 July 2011) appointed attack that killed seven UN peacekeep- extended the mandate of UNMIL until four individuals to the Group of ers. Earlier this year, Diène had reported 30 September 2012 and called on Experts for the Côte d’Ivoire to the UN Human Rights Council that UNOCI and UNMIL to coordinate Sanctions Committee. most human rights violations in the strategies and operations in the Libe- Other country resulted from the difficulty of ria-Côte d’Ivoire border regions. • S/PV.6777 (31 May 2012) was the reforming the security sector and re- • S/RES/2000 (27 July 2011) renewed briefing on the Council’s visit to West establishing governmental authority the mandate of UNOCI at its current Africa from 18 to 24 May. over the entire territory. Following this force levels (including the earlier ad- latest incident, Diène exhorted the hoc increases) until 31 July 2012. Other Relevant Facts authorities in Côte d’Ivoire and Liberia to • S/RES/1992 (29 June 2011) extended work together to prevent cross-border Special Representative of the Secretary- the temporary redeployment of heli- General and Head of Mission attacks as well as to conduct investiga- copters from UNMIL to UNOCI until tions to identify, arrest and prosecute Albert Gerard Koenders (Netherlands) 30 September. those responsible. UNOCI Force Commander • S/RES/1980 (28 April 2011) extended Maj. Gen. Muhammad Iqbal Asi Key Issues the sanctions regime and the mandate (Pakistan) The key issue for the Council is containing of the Group of Experts monitoring it the emerging security threats in the western for one year. UNOCI: Size, Composition, Cost and Duration region of the country and ensuring that the • S/RES/1967 (19 January 2011) autho- perpetrators of the attacks on UN peace- rised the redeployment of aviation Strength (as of 31 May 2012): 10,933 keepers are identified and held responsible. assets from UNMIL to UNOCI. total uniformed personnel including, Latest Secretary-General’s Reports 9,400 troops, 196 military observers, A related issue is further developing the 1,337 police personnel • S/2012/186 (29 March 2012) was a inter-mission cooperation between UNOCI

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 25 African States (ECOWAS). Shortly after this, On 2 April, ECOWAS appointed President Main troop contributors: Bangladesh, ECOWAS deployed 600 troops in Guinea- Alpha Condé of Guinea to mediate the elec- Pakistan, Senegal, Jordan, Morocco, Bissau, allowing the Angolan Military toral dispute in Guinea-Bissau. On 5 April, Malawi and Nigeria Mission in Guinea-Bissau (MISSANG), Kadré Désiré Ouedraogo, President of the Annual Budget: $645,961,400 (1 July which was established on 21 March 2011 to ECOWAS Commission, wrote a letter to the 2011-30 June 2012) assist with Guinea-Bissau’s security sector UN Secretary-General drawing attention to Duration: 4 April 2004 to present; reform (SSR) programme, to withdraw with- “disturbing developments that could jeop- mandate expires 31 July 2012 out incident. ardise the holding” of the run-off elections on 22 April. As a result of serious controver- The leaders of the Military Command had sies arising from the first-round of the cited the presence of MISSANG in the coun- Guinea-Bissau presidential election, Ouedraogo under- try as a prime cause of the coup. Resolution took a joint high-level ECOWAS-AU-UN Expected Council Action 2030 of 21 December 2011, which renewed fact-finding mission to Guinea-Bissau on 31 In July, the Council is expecting a briefing UNIOGBIS’s mandate, while not mentioning March. In his letter, Ouedraogo mentioned by Joseph Mutaboba, the Secretary- MISSANG, nevertheless welcomed the the tension between MISSANG and the General’s Special Representative and head ECOWAS-Community of Portuguese Guinea-Bissau military. of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office Speaking Countries (CPLP) partnership to in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) on the latest support the SSR and called on Guinea- On 10 April, Angola announced it was with- developments and the Secretary-General’s Bissau, ECOWAS and CPLP “to fulfil their drawing MISSANG. Two days later, and just report on Guinea-Bissau (S/2012/280). A commitments.” The resolution called on ten days before the second round of the press statement is the expected outcome. Guinea-Bissau to “complete the adoption of presidential elections, the military mounted the basic legislation and framework related a successful coup. The mandate of UNIOGBIS expires on 28 to the reform of the defence and security February 2013. The 12 April coup triggered intense diplo- sectors including the pension fund.” matic efforts to restore constitutionality. The Key Recent Developments Serious problems began, however, after Council of Ministers of the CPLP held an On 13 June, the Council announced the President Malam Bacai Sanhá took ill and emergency session on 14 April in Lisbon appointment of Ambassador Mohammed was hospitalised in Paris. On 26 December and adopted a resolution that was transmit- Loulichki (Morocco) as chair of the new 2011, while Sanhá was convalescing in the ted to the CPLP on 16 April. The resolution Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee, hospital, the army attempted a coup, which called for a UN-mandated “interposition” which was established by resolution 2048, was foiled by MISSANG. The relationship force in Guinea-Bissau. adopted on 18 May. The Committee briefed between MISSANG and the army com- the Council on 26 June. The AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) pletely broke down as a result, with the meeting on Guinea-Bissau on 17 April The adoption of resolution 2048 followed latter accusing MISSANG of acting as the decided to initiate consultations with intense diplomatic activity since the military personal guard of Prime Minister Carlos ECOWAS, the CPLP, the UN and other part- seized power in Guinea-Bissau on 12 April. Gomes Júnior, while Angola was targeted ners on the possible deployment of an Calling themselves the Military Command, for allegedly agreeing to a secret pact with international stabilisation operation. It also the participants in the coup aborted prepa- the government to take over the defence suspended Guinea-Bissau as a member rations for run-off presidential elections apparatuses of Guinea-Bissau. state of the AU until the effective restoration slated for 22 April. Resolution 2048 imposed President Sanhá died on 9 January 2012. of constitutional order. On 24 April, the PSC a foreign travel ban on the leaders of the On 18 March, presidential elections were issued a report noting that events in Guinea- Military Command and tasked the sanc- held to find his successor. Gomes Júnior, Bissau constituted “a serious setback for tions committee to monitor the who ran as head of the ruling Partido Afri- the democratic process initiated since the implementation of the travel ban. It autho- cano para a Independência da Guiné e 1990s, while also highlighting the need to rised the Committee to review “on a Cabo Verde (PAIGC), failed to win outright further enhance the deterrence potential of case-by-case basis” requests for the ban to victory, and a run-off was scheduled for 22 the instruments adopted by the AU on be suspended or lifted if “an exemption April. The opposition candidate, Kumba unconstitutional changes of government.” would further the objectives of peace and Yala, who came in second (23 percent) and national reconciliation in Guinea-Bissau On 19 April, the Council discussed Guinea- was scheduled to face Gomes Júnior (49 and stability in the region.” Bissau with briefings by three Foreign percent) in the run-off, announced that he Ministers: Mamadú Saliu Jaló Pires of On 23 May, five days after the adoption of would boycott the polls, claiming that the Guinea-Bissau (who was out of the country the resolution, the Military Command ruling party had rigged the election. The on 12 April); Georges Chikoti of Angola (in announced that it had set up a transitional polls were accompanied by the assassina- his capacity as chair of the CPLP); and civilian government headed by Prime Minis- tion of the former head of military Paulo Portas of Portugal. Côte d’Ivoire, ter Rui Duarte Barros and including two intelligence, Col. Samba Djalo, who was which chairs ECOWAS, delivered a state- army officers to steer the country toward killed by uniformed men shortly after the ment on behalf of the regional body, while elections within a year under a deal bro- polls closed. kered by the Economic Community of West

26 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Mutaboba briefed via video-conference on Council Dynamics the latest developments. There remains unanimous agreement about the need for restoring the constitu- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT While visiting West Africa on 21 May, tional order in Guinea-Bissau, but Council Monthly Council members held a high-level meet- members appear divided over approach. ing on Guinea-Bissau with ECOWAS in July 2012 Togo, which leads on Guinea-Bissau in the FORECAST Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire under the frame- Council, has stuck to the line adopted by work of the PSC-UN partnership. ECOWAS, which is to allow the transitional Letter Guinea-Bissau was also discussed during government one year to conduct elections the annual meeting between the PSC and • S/2012/254 (23 April 2012) was from and to avoid any reference to the legitimacy members of the Security Council, held in Kadré Désiré Ouedraogo, president of of the 18 March vote. Other Council mem- New York on 13 June. the ECOWAS Commission. bers are concerned about the apparent lack The transitional government that the Military of inclusiveness of the transitional govern- Other Relevant Facts Command announced on 23 May does not ment, as well as ignoring the 18 March vote. Special Representative of the Secretary- include any members of the PAIGC, which These Council members are anxious not to General and Head of UNIOGBIS won 67 out of 100 parliamentary seats in the appear to endorse the dictates of an illegiti- Joseph Mutaboba (Rwanda) March elections, and was expected to win mate military intervention. the presidential run-off. The government on Duration 23 June released Rear Admiral José UN Documents From 1 January 2010 until 28 February Américo Bubo Na Tchuto, who had been Security Council Resolutions 2013 arrested in connection to the coup attempt • S/RES/2048 (18 May 2012) imposed Chair of the Guinea-Bissau on 26 December, along with five other offi- travel bans on coup leaders and set Configuration of the PBC cers associated with that plot. up a new sanctions committee. Brazil • S/RES/2030 (21 December 2011) Human Rights-Related Useful Additional Source renewed the mandate of UNIOGBIS Developments Report of the Chairperson of the Commis- until 28 February 2013. sion on the Situation in Guinea-Bissau, Mali On 25 May, Navi Pillay, the UN High • S/RES/1876 (26 June 2009) extended and between the Sudan and South Sudan, Commissioner for Human Rights, the mandate of UNOGBIS until 31 AU, 24 April 2012. expressed concern about reports of December and requested the human rights violations, including vio- Secretary-General to establish lent repression of a peaceful UNIOGBIS to succeed UNOGBIS for demonstration, looting and arbitrary an initial period of 12 months after that. Burundi detention of civilians, in Guinea-Bissau Presidential Statement since the 12 April coup. She urged the Expected Council Action authorities to withdraw a list reportedly • S/PRST/2012/15 (21 April 2012) was In July, the Council is expecting a briefing circulated by the Military Command con- on the coup in Guinea-Bissau. via video-teleconference on Burundi by the taining the names of 57 people forbidden Latest Secretary-General’s Report exiting Special Representative of the to leave the country until further notice. • S/2012/280 (30 April 2012) Secretary-General and head of the UN Office in Burundi (BNUB), Karin Landgren. Press Statements Key Issues The chair of the Burundi configuration of the The key issue for the Council remains resto- • SC/10640 (8 May 2012) was issued Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), Ambas- ration of constitutional order and the after the 7 May briefing by Joseph sador Paul Seger (Switzerland), is also prevention of further military incursions Mutaboba and Ambassador Maria expected to brief the Council. The briefing in politics. Luiza Viotti (Brazil). will be followed by consultations. • SC/10521 (13 January 2012) was Other issues include combating the issued after the briefing by Lynn BNUB’s mandate expires on 15 February stranglehold of drug-trafficking and organ- Pascoe, head of the Department of 2013. ised-crime networks on the military and Political Affairs, on 10 January. political elite, as well as undertaking a com- Key Recent Developments Meeting Records prehensive SSR process. On 7 December 2011, Landgren briefed the • S/PV.6755 (21 April 2012) was a meet- Council on the most recent Secretary- Options ing on the situation in Guinea-Bissau. General’s report (S/2011/751), which Options for the Council include: • S/PV.6743 (28 March 2012) was a recommended that BNUB’s mandate be n issuing a presidential or press statement briefing on the situation in Guinea- renewed at its current composition. Land- calling for clear steps towards constitu- Bissau by Mutaboba and Viotti. gren told the Council that Burundi was tionality by the transitional government; • S/PV.6648 (3 November 2011) showing progress in its peacebuilding or was a briefing on the situation in efforts. In particular she noted progress in n taking no action at this moment. Guinea-Bissau. the normalisation of relations between the

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 27 government and the extra-parliamentary On 7 June, the Secretary-General appointed The PBC plans to meet in July to formally political parties, as the quarterly meetings Parfait Onanga-Anyanga (Gabon) as the adopt the annual review. Burundi For- of the government with registered political new Special Representative and head of eign Minister Laurent Kavakure, Burundi parties had been launched. However, BNUB. Landgren is the Secretary-General’s Human Rights Commission Chairman Landgren also stressed that prospects new Special Representative in Liberia. Emmanuel Ntakarutimana and Ombud- for normalising relations with extra- In a 2 May report, Human Rights Watch sperson Mohamed Rukara, may attend. parliamentary opposition parties were canvassed political violence in Burundi in The World Bank and international part- overshadowed by the arrests and assassina- 2011 and the early months of 2012. Despite ners are planning a meeting in Geneva tions of members of some of those parties, as a decrease in violence in 2012, the report to generate support for the PRSP II, in well as by reliable information about recruit- found that political killings have continued which the PBC will take part. ment and paramilitary training carried out by to plague the country. The report con- members of certain opposition parties. cluded that not only has the state failed to Human Rights-Related On 20 December, the Council adopted res- take reasonable steps to ensure security Developments olution 2027, extending BNUB’s mandate and provide protection for its citizens, it has until 15 February 2013 under the same also not fulfilled its duty to take all reason- Speaking on 2 May at the end of a terms as the previous mandate, stressing able measures to prevent and prosecute visit to Burundi, Assistant Secretary- that BNUB should support Burundi’s efforts these types of crimes. General for Human Rights Ivan in the area of socioeconomic development. Šimonović said that while the country Developments in the It requested that the Secretary-General was making progress on human rights, Peacebuilding Commission update the Council by 31 May on the devel- challenges remained. One was in opment of benchmarks for the evolution of The Burundi configuration, headed by addressing impunity from prosecution BNUB into a UN country team presence Seger, visited Burundi from 18-25 April, for human rights abuses. The other was and that a briefing be held in July. In a letter (S/2012/320) sent to the for the government to carry through its Council afterwards, Seger reported commitment to establish an effective, The resolution also stressed the need for a substantial improvement in the relation- independent and credible Truth and thorough, credible, impartial and transpar- ship between the ruling political party Reconciliation Commission, which ent investigation of serious crimes, in and the opposition, which is not repre- would be a vital step for reconciliation particular extrajudicial killings, and called sented in parliament, noting that this and cementing the rule of law. upon the authorities of Burundi to put an improvement may be jeopardised by end to such criminal acts and to ensure that Key Issues economic conditions. those responsible are brought to justice. It The key issue is the adequacy of the also noted with grave concern continued A draft annual review of the fifth and final benchmarks and accompanying indica- human rights violations, including torture, review of the implementation of the Stra- tors for the assessment of progress in and restrictions on civil liberties, including tegic Framework for Peacebuilding in Burundi moving forward. harassment, intimidation and limitations on Burundi was circulated in June within the A further issue is addressing the role of the the freedom of opposition political parties, Burundi configuration. The review is PBC in relation to the benchmarks. media and civil society organisations. based on another review carried out by the Burundi government and interna- Also an issue is how to encourage a politi- Addressing the Council after the adoption tional partners with the participation of cal dialogue between the government and of the resolution, Ambassador Herméné- civil society and was endorsed in a the opposition and strengthen good gover- gilde Niyonzima (Burundi) stressed dismay Forum Politique that took place in Bujum- nance, human rights and the rule of law in with the Council’s reference to extra- bura on 8 June. The review includes the country. judicial killings and its criticism of Burundi’s recommendations and future commit- efforts to address impunity. He also noted Options ments of Burundi and the PBC. that the government had made several Options for the Council include: appeals to the extra-parliamentary opposi- The draft reaffirms the two-track n issuing a presidential or press statement tion for direct dialogue, which have not approach (political and socioeconomic) taking note of or endorsing the bench- resulted in any response. to the engagement of the PBC with marks; n requesting BNUB to further develop On 10 May, the Secretary-General sent a Burundi and the priorities set out in the the benchmarks and report back to the letter (S/2012/310) to the Council with Outcome Document of 26 April 2011. It Council; benchmarks and indicators for the conveys an agreement that subsequent n encouraging the work of the PBC and future evolution of BNUB in the fields of reviews of progress in peacebuilding stressing the importance of PBC involve- security and stability, democratic process, would be undertaken under the moni- ment in implementing the benchmarks; transitional justice, governance and institu- toring and evaluation framework of the or tion-building, rule of law, human rights, new poverty-reduction strategy paper n taking no action at this time. regional integration and social and eco- (PRSP II). nomic development.

28 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Council Dynamics Peacebuilding Commission (PBC). Both July’s briefing is not preceded by a written the outgoing PBC chair, Ambassador report, and therefore Council members are Eugène-Richard Gasana (Rwanda), and SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT particularly keen on hearing Landgren’s the current chair, Ambassador A.K. Abdul Monthly assessment of the situation on the ground. Momen (Bangladesh), are expected to brief. Judy Cheng-Hopkins, the Assistant July 2012FORECAST Council members see the current BNUB Secretary-General for Peacebuilding Sup- arrangements as a transition phase. During port, is also expected to brief the Council. expectations” generated in the countries on the negotiations on its mandate renewal All the chairs of the country-specific config- the PBC’s agenda would be met. (The last December, some countries empha- urations are also likely to brief. PBSO has been working on its strategy for sised the importance of taking into account 2012-2015, focusing on three key areas: the position of the government and the It is likely that the Council will hold an increasing the peacebuilding impact of key need for benchmarks for BNUB’s eventual interactive dialogue with chairs of country- national and international actors at country- withdrawal. Therefore, Council members specific configurations on 13 July. level through the PBC and Peacebuilding are focusing their attention on the bench- A presidential statement will likely be issued Fund (PBF); strengthening the UN system’s marks they received in May for BNUB’s after the briefings. leadership, coherence and coordination on further reconfiguration. key peacebuilding priorities; and improving Key Recent Developments communication and understanding of Several members are of the view that an The fifth annual report of the PBC was pub- peacebuilding through the PBC, UN and outcome (whether in the form of a presiden- lished on 30 January (S/2012/70). It covers external actors.) tial statement or a press statement) is the period from 1 January to 31 December necessary to signal the importance of the 2011, and focuses on key aspects of the However, even before the end of the report- benchmarks a nd their indicators as a work- PBC’s work, including implementation of ing period, the 2011 report seemed to have ing basis to assess the progress of BNUB. the key recommendations of the 2010 been overtaken by events. For example, on Guinea-Bissau, the annual report notes that Some members are of the view that the “Review of the United Nations Peacebuild- the reporting period was “marked by con- PBC—which was not involved in develop- ing Architecture” (S/2010/393), resource tinuous political stability.” In fact, there was ing the benchmarks—should be involved in mobilisation, national capacity develop- an attempted military coup on 26 Decem- the evaluation process. ment of the countries on the PBC’s agenda, political advocacy and cross-configuration ber 2011. Under-Secretary-General for The lead country on Burundi is France. work by the commission. Though Council Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe briefed the members never formally discussed the Council on the situation in Guinea-Bissau UN Documents 2010 review, the Council welcomed it in on 10 January following the death of Presi- Security Council Resolution resolution 1947, adopted on 29 October dent Malam Bacai Sanhá in Paris the day • S/RES/2027 (20 December 2011) 2010. The resolution reaffirmed the “impor- before. Pascoe mentioned the attempted renewed BNUB’s mandate until 15 tance of the peacebuilding work carried out military coup on 26 December 2011. The February 2013. by the UN and the need for sustained sup- Council issued a press statement (SC/10521) after the briefing, expressing Security Council Meeting Records port and adequate resources for this work.” The resolution underlined the role of the condolences and welcoming Guinea-Bis- • S/PV.6691 (20 December) was the PBC as a dedicated intergovernmental sau’s decision to investigate the coup adoption of resolution 2027. advisory body to “address the needs of attempt and to hold presidential elections. • S/PV.6677 (7 December 2011) was countries emerging from conflict towards Held on 18 March, the elections were incon- the briefing by Landgren. sustainable peace.” It requested all relevant clusive. On 12 April, the military staged a Latest Secretary-General’s Report UN actors to “take forward, within their coup and arrested interim President Rai- • S/2011/751 (30 November 2011) mandates and as appropriate, the recom- mundo Pereira and former Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Júnior (who was favoured to Other mendations of the report with the aim of win run-off presidential elections scheduled • S/2012/310 (10 May 2012) are the further improving the effectiveness of the for 22 April). On 18 May, the Council benchmarks for the future evolution Peacebuilding Commission” and called for adopted resolution 2048, imposing a ban of BNUB. a further comprehensive review in 2015. on foreign travel on army leaders who • S/2012/320 (4 May 2012) was the let- The annual report for 2011 signalled staged the coup. ter from Seger to the Council on his “increased appreciation of the potential role recent visit to Burundi. that the commission can play to promote On 19 and 20 May, Council members vis- renewed commitment by the international ited Liberia, and then Sierra Leone on 23 community to countries emerging from May. It appeared that some Council mem- Peacebuilding Commission conflict” and called on the Peacebuilding bers were taken aback by the fact that the work of the PBC was not mentioned by the Expected Council Action Support Office (PBSO) to provide “high- national stakeholders (including govern- In July, the Council is expected to discuss in quality support to the country ment officials) they met with in Liberia and an open debate the annual report of the configurations” so that the “increased

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 29 Sierra Leone. This is of particular interest, July. Alexander Downer, the Secretary- peacebuilding work carried out by since the 2010 review of the PBC had General’s Special Adviser, will also likely the UN and the need for sustained stressed the effectiveness of the PBC and brief Council members. support and adequate resources for the “imperative” of bringing national actors this work. UNFICYP’s mandate expires on 19 July. in the countries on its agenda on board the • S/RES/1646 (20 December 2005) commission’s work. decided that the five permanent Key Recent Developments Since the Council last extended UNFICYP’s Key Issues members will have seats on the mandate, the UN has expended consider- The key issue is sustaining the Council’s PBC’s Organisational Committee able effort in attempting to facilitate a final interest in the work of the PBC, which is and that the PBC will report annually settlement of the Cyprus issue. Secretary- after all one of its subsidiary bodies (albeit to the Council. General Ban Ki-moon most recently met a unique one as it is also subordinate to • S/RES/1645 (20 December 2005) with the two sides at the Greentree estate the General Assembly), and in post-con- created the PBC and the Peacebuild- on Long Island on 23-24 January. Before flict reconstruction and peacebuilding ing Fund, concurrent with General the talks, the Secretary-General wrote to more broadly. Assembly resolution A/RES/60/180. both leaders expressing the understanding Presidential Statements A related issue is whether the Council’s that the talks had entered their final phase. approach to countries that are on the • S/PRST/2012/15 (21 April 2012) was In the lead-up to what was dubbed “Green- agenda of both bodies can be enhanced on the coup in Guinea-Bissau. tree II” (following similar trilateral talks on by better incorporation of the input from • S/PRST/2011/4 (11 February 2011) 30-31 October 2011), there seemed to be the PBC. was on the interdependence between some “positive movement” according to security and development, wherein the Secretary-General, and both sides Options the Council reiterated its support for agreed on the so-called remaining “core Options for the Council include: the work of the PBC and its readiness core” issues. These were: n discussing the annual report and taking to make greater use of the PBC’s n the election of the executive; no action; advisory role. n the number of persons who would n issuing a presidential statement welcom- PBC Reports become citizens of a united Cyprus; and ing the report and calling for greater • S/2012/70 (30 January 2012) was the n the basic design of a property regime. synergies between the PBC, PBSO and PBC’s fifth report. PBF; and In his correspondence, the Secretary- • S/2010/393 (21 July 2010) was the n holding a discussion in consultations General urged both leaders to unblock the report of the co-facilitators of the with the chairs of the country-specific remaining obstacles in the negotiations so “Review of the UN Peacebuilding configurations as well as with heads of that substantive discussions at Greentree Architecture.” the PBSO and PBF. could lead to a multilateral conference and, Press Statement ultimately, a settlement. Part of the impetus Council Dynamics • SC/10521 (13 January 2012) was on for concluding a final settlement by mid- It appears that the Council is not particularly the death of President Malam Bacai 2012 was that Cyprus takes over the EU focused on the work of the PBC (the annual Sanhá and an abortive coup in Presidency on 1 July. Additionally, presi- report was published five months ago, and Guinea-Bissau on 26 December 2011. dential elections are scheduled in Cyprus the Council is only discussing it in July). But for February 2013. the events in Guinea-Bissau and the Coun- cil’s recent visit to Liberia and Sierra Leone Despite some optimism leading into may be changing this. The UK appears to Cyprus “Greentree II”, the talks were not produc- be particularly interested in developing a tive. The Secretary-General, who conveyed Expected Council Action new approach. South Africa has been sup- his disappointment to the two leaders fol- In July, the Council is expected to renew the portive of these efforts and has consistently lowing the talks, said that while the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in shown a committed interest in the work of discussions were “robust and intensive, Cyprus (UNFICYP) for six months, as has the PBC. only limited progress was achieved.” In his been customary since the mission was 12 March assessment report on the status established in 1964. (Resolution 2026 of 14 UN Documents of the negotiations, the Secretary-General December 2011 had previously extended Security Council Resolutions observed that negotiations on the remain- the mandate for seven months as part of the ing crucial issues “are close to deadlock.” • S/RES/2048 (18 May 2012) imposed Council’s wider effort to spread mandate travel bans on coup leaders and set renewals throughout the year.) On 29 March, following further discussions up a new sanctions committee for with the two leaders in Cyprus, Downer A briefing in consultations is expected by Guinea-Bissau. briefed Council members in consultations the Special Representative and head of • S/RES/1947 (29 October 2010) via videoconference on his “good offices” UNFICYP, Lisa M. Buttenheim, on the reaffirmed the importance of the mission concerning the settlement Secretary-General’s latest report, due by 1

30 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org negotiations. This included the lack of con- Cypriot side has said Cyprus’s assumption vergence on the main remaining issues, as of the presidency would undermine efforts detailed in the Secretary-General’s report to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, on 20 SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT of 12 March (S/2012/149). The Special June a Cyprus government representative Monthly Adviser then met with Ban in New York on said that Cyprus should focus on its EU 19 April, having provided the Secretary- Presidency duties and that reunification July 2012FORECAST General with his own private report on the talks would be “put on the backburner.”) state of negotiations. Later in April, the sides to make progress in the reunification Key Issues Secretary-General decided not to call a talks and have emphasised that any final The main issue for the Council is whether multilateral conference as he had hoped, deal must be acceptable to both sides. there should be a review of UNFICYP’s given the insufficient progress on the mandate, given the continuing lack of prog- In the past, some members — including remaining “core core” issues. ress towards reaching a settlement. Russia — have emphasised that the talks In a press conference on 27 April, Downer were at a sensitive stage and the Council Concerning the talks, a key issue is the stated that it was clear that the UN-facili- should be careful about not sending the complicating factor that Cyprus assumes tated negotiations had “recently come to wrong message to the parties. (The con- the EU Presidency on 1 July and that Presi- something of a standstill.” As consistently cern seems to be that a change to the dent Demetris Christofias will be in office articulated, he emphasised that, ulti- mandate could be interpreted by the Greek only until 1 March 2013 (he is not seeking mately, the talks were a “Cypriot-owned Cypriots as a sign that the situation with re-election). and Cypriot-led” process. No further trilat- respect to northern Cyprus was being nor- eral meetings are scheduled and — while Options malised and accepted.) Those Council Downer has made clear that the UN is In July, the Council could: members who are more sympathetic to the Greek Cypriots’ position therefore are likely there to facilitate any future high-level n extend UNFICYP’s mandate for six discussions — it seems that there is months; to resist calls for UNFICYP’s mandate to be altered, and assert that such a move will not acknowledgement that a different path is n renew UNFICYP’s mandate but agree to now needed. revise and reconfigure the mission; accelerate a final settlement. n send a clear message that UNFICYP’s The UN’s approach now appears to be UN Documents presence will not be indefinite and that two-fold: to maintain dialogue with both the Council expects to see tangible prog- Security Council Resolution sides and to encourage confidence- ress in the negotiations; or • S/RES/2026 (14 December 2011) building steps at the technical level. (There n discuss replacing UNFICYP longer term renewed UNFICYP’s mandate until 19 are seven such technical committees.) with a political mission. July. One issue where progress might be feasi- ble is the opening of new crossing points at Council Dynamics Secretary-General’s Report the Green Line which divides the two The P5 members have traditionally had a • S/2012/149 (12 March 2012) was an Cypriot communities. dominant role within the Council on Cyprus assessment report on the status of the and the drafting of resolutions extending negotiations on Cyprus. During a visit to Cyprus on 19-20 June, the UNFICYP’s mandate. To varying degrees, EU’s Commissioner for Enlargement, however, the elected members also take an Other Relevant Facts Štefan Füle, expressed his concern at the interest in the issue, most notably perhaps stalemate between the two sides. In state- UNFICYP: Size, Composition and Cost the two other EU members—Germany and ments to the press, Füle emphasised the Strength (as of 31 October 2011): 856 Portugal. Given the lack of progress this need for both sides to be prepared to com- military personnel, 66 police, 41 interna- year towards reaching a settlement, there is promise, saying that the price of not tional civilian personnel and 112 local likely to be frustration among several mem- achieving a solution was going to be bigger civilian staff bers that the recent high-level efforts have than the price of any reasonable compro- Budget Appropriation (1 July 2012 – 30 not borne fruit. mise. In an address on 19 June, Füle said June 2013): $56.97 million (one-third of that discussions suggesting that the status It seems that the UK in particular, which which is funded by the Government of quo could continue were “nonsense” and leads on Cyprus in the Council, might be Cyprus; and $6.5 million from Greece) that “unfinished business” in Cyprus was interested in discussing the benefits of becoming “unfinished business in the EU.” revising UNFICYP’s mandate. There might also be some appetite among other mem- Füle also said that the notion that no prog- bers to discuss reconfiguring the ress could be achieved during Cyprus’s EU long-standing mission, given the present Presidency was a fallacy and that the stalemate. However, some Council mem- increased attention on Cyprus over the next bers are wary of trying to use UNFICYP’s six months would result in a sense of renewal as leverage to compel the two urgency to solve the problem. (The Turkish

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 31 Notable Dates for July SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT STAFF Bruno Stagno, Executive Director Report Due Reports for Consideration in July Requesting Document Joanna Weschler, Deputy Executive 30 January The PBC annual report S/RES/1646 Director and Director of Research 8 June SG report on Eritrea sanctions S/RES/2023 Amanda Roberts, Coordinating Editor & Research Analyst 22 June SG report on UNOWA (West Africa) S/2010/661 Shamala Kandiah, What’s in Blue Editor S/RES/2039 and Senior Research Analyst 27 June SG report on UNMISS (South Sudan) S/RES/1996 Astrid Forberg Ryan, Development 30 June SG report on 1701 (Lebanon) S/RES/2004 Officer and Senior Research Analyst Lansana Gberie, Research Analyst 30 June SG report on UNOCI (Côte d’Ivoire) S/RES/2000 Zeeshan Hashmi, Research Analyst 1 July SG report on the Development Fund for Iraq S/RES/1956 Paul Romita, Research Analyst 1 July SG report on UNFICYP (Cyprus) S/RES/2026 Eran Sthoeger, Research Analyst Nicholas Walbridge, Research Analyst early July SG report on UNSMIS (Syria) S/RES/2043 Robbin VanNewkirk, Publications 12 July SG report on UNAMI (Iraq) S/RES/2001 Coordinator 16 July SG report on UNAMID (Darfur) S/RES/2003 Dahlia Morched, Research Assistant 21 July SG report on UNIOGBIS (Guinea-Bissau) S/RES/2030 Laura Coquard-Patry, Junior Research Assistant Mandates Expire Relevant Document Maritza Tenerelli, Administrative Assistant James Reed Ball III, Research Intern 9 July UNMISS (South Sudan) S/RES/1996 Tim Caughley, Research Consultant 19 July UNFICYP (Cyprus) S/RES/2026 Stevenson Swanson, Copy Editor 20 July UNSMIS (Syria) S/RES/2043 (consultant) 28 July UNAMI (Iraq) S/RES/2001 Security Council Report is supported by 31 July UNOCI (Côte d’Ivoire) S/RES/2000 the Governments of Australia, Austria, 31 July UNAMID (Darfur) S/RES/2003 Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Other Important Dates Germany, Kuwait, Liechtenstein, Luxem- bourg, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, 2-3 July The International Contact Group for Somalia will meet in Rome. and Switzerland, the Ford 6 July The Friends of Syria will meet in Paris. Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the William 7 July Constituent Assembly elections are scheduled in Libya. and Flora Hewlett Foundation. It is incor- 7 July Parliamentary elections are schedule in Timor-Leste. porated as a not for profit Organisation 8 July The Tokyo Conference on Afghanistan is scheduled. and operates in affiliation with the School 12 July The Council is expected to discuss the annual report of the PBC. of International and Public Affairs at in New York.

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