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Monthlyforecast SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Monthly JULY 2012 29 June 2012 This report is available online and can beFORECAST viewed together with research studies and Update Reports at www.securitycouncilreport.org. For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at www.whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Overview Contents of This Issue Colombia will hold the presidency of the n the human rights situation in Libya, Eritrea 1 Security Council in July. An open debate is by Pillay; Status Update since our June planned to discuss the annual report of n the human rights situation in the Occu- Forecast 2 the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) pied Palestinian Territories, by Pillay; Somalia 5 and receive briefings from the PBC country n the human rights situation in Sudan, Sudan and South Sudan 7 configurations’ chairs. The debate will be by Pillay; chaired by Colombia’s Foreign Minister, n Cyprus, by the head of the UN Peace- Sudan/Darfur 9 María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar. There will keeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP), Lisa UNSMIS (Syria) 11 also be an open debate on the Middle East M. Buttenheim and possibly also by the Israel/Palestine 14 with a briefing by the Secretariat. Secretary-General’s Special Adviser, Alexander Downer; Lebanon 15 The Council is due to also receive briefings, n Yemen by the Secretary-General’s Iraq 17 to be followed by consultations on: Special Adviser, Jamal Benomar; n Iraq by the head of the UN Assistance Yemen 18 n the status of compliance by Sudan, South Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), Martin Kobler; Sudan, and the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Libya 20 n Libya by the head of the UN Support Mis- Movement-North with Council resolution UNOWA (West Africa) 22 sion in Libya (UNSMIL), Ian Martin; 2046 (likely twice during the month); n Côte d’Ivoire, by the head of the UN Côte d’Ivoire 24 n the implementation of resolution 1701 Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI), Guinea-Bissau 26 (that called for a cessation of hostilities Albert Gerard Koenders; between Hezbollah and Israel) by Burundi 27 n Darfur and the work of the AU/UN Hybrid Special Coordinator Derek Plumbly; and Peacebuilding Commission 29 Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), most likely n the work of the Somalia/Eritrea by UN Secretariat; Cyprus 30 Sanctions Committee, by its Chair, n Guinea-Bissau, by the head of the UN Ambassador Hardeep Singh Puri (India). Notable Dates 32 Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea- Bissau (UNIOGBIS), Joseph Mutaboba; Consultations are also expected on the UN n Burundi, by the exiting head of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), prior Eritrea Office in Burundi (BNUB), Karin Land- to the renewal of its mandate. Expected Council Action gren and the Chair of the PBC Burundi Formal sessions will be needed to adopt In July, the Monitoring Group for Somalia Configuration Ambassador Paul Seger resolutions extending: and Eritrea sanctions is due to submit for (Switzerland); and n the mandate of UNMISS; the first time a separate report on Eritrea as n the work of the UN Office for West Africa n the mandate of UNFICYP; part of its final reporting obligations and is (UNOWA), by its head Said Djinnit. n the mandate of UNAMID; scheduled to brief the 751/1907 Sanctions Briefings in consultations will likely be n the mandate of UNAMI; Committee on the report. The Council is given on: n the mandate of UNOCI; expected to renew the Monitoring Group’s n Syria, probably twice, one likely by UN- n the mandate of the Somalia/Eritrea mandate before it expires at the end of July. Arab League Joint Special Envoy Kofi Sanctions Monitoring Group; and The Council is also due to consider the Annan and another by the High Commis- n the mandate of UNSMIS. Secretary-General’s report on Eritrea’s sioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay, and An interactive dialogue will most likely be compliance with resolutions 1844, 1862, the UN Supervision Mission in Syria held with the chairs of the PBC country- 1907 and 2023 which demanded that (UNSMIS); specific configurations. >>page 3 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our June Forecast n Central African Republic: On 6 June, extending three ICTR judges’ terms. n Peacekeeping: On 20 June, the Council Margaret Vogt, the Secretary-General’s n DPRK (North Korea): On 12 June, the held a meeting (S.PV/6789) with Force Com- Special Representative and head of the UN Council adopted resolution 2050 extending manders from UN peacekeeping missions. Integrated Peacebuilding Office in the CAR the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) The Force Commanders from the UN Stabili- (BINUCA), briefed (S/PV.6780) the Council which assists the DPRK Sanctions Commit- sation Mission in the Democratic Republic of on the Secretary-General’s latest report tee until 12 July 2013. The resolution was the Congo (Lieutenant General Chander (S/2012/374) on the situation in the country. essentially a technical roll-over of last year’s Prakash), UN Interim Force in Lebanon Vogt noted that though the overall security resolution, although the Council extended (Major General Paolo Serra), UN Mission in situation has improved, the CAR remains the mandate for 13 instead of 12 months so South Sudan (Major General Moses Bisong fragile. The arrest of four politico-military as to enable greater continuity of the PoE’s Obi), and UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti leaders early in the year on charges of plans work during the mandate renewal period. (Major General Fernando Rodriguez Goulart) to re-launch an armed rebellion and the (The resolution expresses the Council’s made presentations to the Council during suspension of consultations between the intent to review the mandate and take appro- the debate. No Council action resulted. government and political parties on elec- priate renewal action by 12 June 2013.) n Myanmar: On 20 June, Council members toral matters exemplified the fragility of the Agreement was reached for the PoE’ final were briefed in consultations on Myanmar situation, she said. The representative of the report of 12 May to be published (unlike the by the Special Adviser to the Secretary- CAR also briefed the Council. No action previous year’s report), and resolution 2050 General on Myanmar, Vijay Nambiar, who was taken after the briefing. gives the final report a UN document number had recently returned from a visit to the n Iran: On 7 June, the Council adopted resolu- (S/2012/422), although it has not yet been country. Nambiar attended the Peace tion 2049 renewing the mandate of the Iran published on the Committee’s website. Donor Support Group, established by Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts n Consultations with the AU PSC: On 13 Norway to work with the government of (PoE) until 9 July next year. The only change June, at UN headquarters, Council members Myanmar and other partners. Council mem- from the previous year’s equivalent text was held their sixth annual consultative meeting bers were updated on the recent troubles in that the mandate was extended for 13 with the AU Peace and Security Council the western Rakhine State, where the com- months instead of 12, so as to enable greater (PSC). Issues discussed included: Guinea- munal violence between the ethnic Rakhine continuity of the PoE’s work during the man- Bissau, Mali, Somalia, Sudan and South Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims has led to date renewal period. (The Council will Sudan, developments in the Sahel region of a humanitarian crisis. consider further extension of the mandate by Africa, as well as the further strengthening of n Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict: 9 June 2013.) Agreement has been reached methods of work and cooperation between On 25 June, the Council held its biannual for this year’s PoE’s final report of 9 May the two bodies. The closed informal meeting open debate on protection of civilians in (S/2012/395) to be published. The report lasted about three hours and appears to have armed conflict (S/PV.6790 and Resumption contains 11 recommendations to the Sanc- been less contentious and more substantive 1). It featured briefings by the Secretary- tions Committee, including the designation than some of the previous consultations. A General and by Under-Secretary-General for of two companies for transporting prohibited detailed communiqué (S/2012/444) from the Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos, Assistant arms from Iran bound for Syria. On 12 June, meeting possibly signals a shift toward a Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan the Chair of the Sanctions Committee, more substantive and less process-oriented Simonovic (who delivered a statement on Ambassador Néstor Osorio (Colombia), phase in this relationship. behalf of High Commissioner for Human briefed the Council on the Committee’s work n Mali: On 18 June, the Council issued a Rights Navi Pillay), as well as the Director for (S/PV.6786). An open briefing on the Com- press statement (SC/10676) declaring its International Law and Cooperation at the mittee’s work for the benefit of the readiness to consider backing a military International Committee of the Red Cross, membership at large is scheduled for 9 July. intervention in Mali as proposed by the Philip Spoerri (via video-link). In addition to n Tribunals: On 7 June the Council held a Economic Community of West African Council members, more than 30 member debate on the ICTR/ICTY (S/PV.6782) States (ECOWAS) “once additional infor- states spoke.
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