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Monitor 360, and Other Partners Across the US Government UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO Open Source Center COUNTRY REPORT: Syria June 2012 This document does not represent US Government policy or views UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO Master Narratives Country Report / Syria 3 Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 5 Master Narratives ..........................................................................................................................13 “Conspiracies All Around” ..............................................................................................................14 “The Zionist Scourge” ...................................................................................................................... 17 “Greater Syria” .................................................................................................................................20 “Stabilizing Ba’ath” ......................................................................................................................... 23 “Promise of a New Syria” ............................................................................................................... 26 “Alawite Infidels” .............................................................................................................................30 “Alawite Survival” ............................................................................................................................ 33 “Kurdish Plight” ............................................................................................................................... 36 Appendix & Sourcing .................................................................................................................39 Syria Audience Segmentation ........................................................................................................40 Sources ............................................................................................................................................. 42 This document does not represent UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO US Government policy or views Open Source Center UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO Executive Summary This document does not represent US Government policy or views UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO 6 Master Narratives Country Report / Syria / Executive Summary UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO OVERVIEW Understanding master narratives can be the difference between analytic anticipation and unwanted surprise, as well as the difference between communications successes and messaging gaffes. Master narratives are the historically grounded stories that reflect a community’s identity and experiences, or explain its hopes, aspirations, and concerns. These narratives help groups understand who they are and where they come from, and how to make sense of unfolding developments around them. As they do in all countries, effective communicators in Syria invoke master narratives in order to move audiences in a preferred direction. Syrian influencers rely on their native familiarity with these master narratives to use them effectively. This task is considerably more challenging for US com- municators and analysts because they must place themselves in the mindset of foreign audiences who believe stories that — from an American vantage point — may appear surprising, conspiratorial, or even outlandish. This report serves as a resource for addressing this challenge in two ways. First, it identifies a set of eight master narratives carefully selected based on their potency in the Syrian context and relevance to US strategic interests. Second, this report follows a consistent structure for articulating these narratives and explicitly identifies initial implications for US commu- nicators and analysts. The set outlined here is not exhaustive: these eight master narratives represent a first step that communicators and analysts can efficiently apply to the specific messaging need or analytic question at hand. For seasoned Syria experts, these narratives will already be familiar — the content contained in this report can be used to help check assump- tions, surface tacit knowledge, and aid customer communications. For newcomers to Syria accounts, these narratives offer deep insights into the stories and perceptions that shape the Syrian political context that may otherwise take years to accumulate. Some master narratives cut across broad stretches of the Syrian populace, while others are held only by particular audience segments. This study divides Syria into six audience seg- ments that demonstrate how different master narratives resonate with different sections of the populace. Each of the six master narratives aligns with one or more of the following seg- ments: Regime Insiders, Wealthy Urbanites, Rural Sunnis, Urban Working Classes, Alawites, and Kurds (See the Appendix for a detailed description of these audience segments.) THE MASTER NARRATIVES The table on the following page summarizes the eight master narratives highlighted in this report. For each narrative, it specifies the relevant audience segments as well as the narra- tive’s core themes. The condensed narrative description simulates the voice of someone who believes in the narrative itself, helping communicators and analysts immerse themselves in the mindset of the foreign audience. About the Master Narratives Platform This report is part of the master narratives platform, a collaboration between Open Source Center, Monitor 360, and other partners across the US Government. The master narratives platform is focused on surfacing and articulating master narratives across a range of important geographies. These insights can be used to better understand critical audience segments and key influencers, build analytic capabilities, and develop actionable messaging and counter-messaging strategies. To learn more about the master narratives platform and how it can be applied to your mission, contact Open Source Center at [email protected]. This document does not represent Open Source Center US Government policy or views UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO Master Narratives Country Report / Syria / Executive Summary 7 Condensed Master Narrative Narrative Title & A description of the master narrative as it might be articulated by one who Core Narrative Audience Segments subscribes to it Themes Conspiracies Long have conspirators plotted against Syrians. The Ottomans taxed and conscripted Conspiracy, All Around Syria into ruin, and since the 1920s the West has schemed to keep Syria divided Victimization, Widely held and impoverished. Now secretive cabals inside the country, scheming Westerners, Vigilance across segments and envious Arab neighbors conspire against the people. Syrians must resist these conspiracies to escape the discord that besets their country. The Zionist Scourge Syrians have stood guard over the Levant as part of the Arab world for millennia. Aggression, Widely held Today, the greatest threat to the Arab world is hated Zionist Israel, born of Western Injustice, across segments treachery. Syrians must resist the Zionists — first and foremost by regaining the Golan Responsibility Heights and ending the occupation of Palestine. This is how to put an end to decades of Arab displacement and dispossession. Greater Syria Bilad al-Sham (Greater Syria) was the cradle of civilization and the heart of the Arab Exceptionalism, Widely held world, intertwining a diversity of faiths in a land that stretched from the Red Sea to Restoration, across segments the Zagros mountains. The West fractured Bilad al-Sham into French and British Tolerance colonies in 1924. To restore their pride, Levantines must strive to restore Syria as a homeland for all creeds and a vanguard of the Arab world. Stabilizing Ba’ath When the French evacuated in 1948 they left Syria torn apart by selfish politicians Paternalism, Regime Insiders, struggling for power. Fortunately, out of this chaos, the Ba’ath rose to lead the nation. Secularism, Wealthy Urbanites, The prosperity fostered by the regime is now threatened by Muslim extremists who Stability Alawites want to push the country into religious war. Syria must crush these extremists, or the country will disintegrate into sectarian bloodshed. Promise of Despite suffering for generations under Damascene elites’ greed, the Syrian people Defiance, Hope, a New Syria were still able to prosper through hard work and ingenuity. This changed when the Struggle Urban Working Classes, Al-Asads came to power, ushering in a reign of boundless corruption and terror. Now Rural Sunnis the Arab world from Egypt to Libya has stood up to tyrants, and Syria, too, must have its liberation. To gain the prosperity and freedom denied to them, citizens across Syria must rise up and topple the regime. Alawite Infidels Syria has been a Sunni nation since Caliph Mu’awiyah’s seventh-century reign. Then Intolerance, Rural Sunnis in 1920 the French made Nusayris, or so-called “Alawites,” their lapdogs. Nusayris Righteous Cause, connived their way into power after the French left, stealing from the successful and Revenge brutally repressing the innocent. It is now time for vengeance: the Nusayri regime will be pushed from power and its supporters will be pushed into their graves. Syria will then be ruled by Sunnis in the name of God. Alawite Consigned to Syria’s rocky hinterlands, Alawites barely scraped out a living under Encirclement, Survival Sunni rule. But in the mid-twentieth century the Alawites rose
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