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FUNDAÇÃO GETULIO VARGAS BRAZILIAN SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN ADMINISTRATION THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ARMED CONFLICTS AND CHRONIC HUNGER IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (1990-2015) A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE BRAZILIAN SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN ADMINISTRATION ARTHUR AUGUSTO CATRAIO Rio de Janeiro - 2020 Dados Internacionais de Catalogação na Publicação (CIP) Ficha catalográfica elaborada pelo Sistema de Bibliotecas/FGV Catraio, Arthur Augusto de Freitas The political economy of armed conflicts and chronic hunger in sub-Saharan Africa (1990-2015) / Arthur Augusto de Freitas Catraio. – 2020. 175 f. Tese (doutorado) - Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas, Centro de Formação Acadêmica e Pesquisa. Orientadora: Daniela Campello da Costa Ribeiro. Inclui bibliografia. 1. Africa Sub-Saara – Fome – Aspectos políticos. 2. Guerra civil – Aspectos sociais. 2. Desenvolvimento sustentável. I. Campello, Daniela, 1970-. II. Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas. Centro de Formação Acadêmica e Pesquisa. III. Título. CDD – 361.05 Elaborada por Márcia Nunes Bacha – CRB-7/4403 In memory of Josué de Castro Acknowledgments This doctoral dissertation is the joint result of individual effort and an endless list of collective acts of support and generosity. I must thank my family, especially my parents, my brother and my nephew, for their unconditional support, love, and both moral and physical encouragement which included travelling with heavy loads of books that were used in this research. To Margarete Barbosa, Alexandre Nicolosi, and Lucas Soares I must thank for their kindness, love, and for their literally out of this world support. Many friends were important at various stages of this research. I want to especially thank André Passos, Muriel Assmann, Marta Dell’Aquila, Rita Catunda, Susanna Demant, Eraldo Santos, Gabriel Caires, Elisa Lucena, Marianne Antunes, Joatan Nunes, Thiago Melamed, Nadya Bobyleva and Leon, Annie Nisenson, Brad Brockman, Victor the best Shona professor in Pretoria, Nathalia Quintiliano, Matt Oliver, Abdu Djamanca, Marcelo Fornazin, Assis Mafort, Clara Polycarpo, and Palloma Menezes. You know how important you have been at some point of this long walk. I owe a great intellectual debt to Sonia Fleury. She has been, for several years, a great friend and mentor. With her I shaped my moral standards for social science research. I must also remember Marielle Franco, an excellent councilwoman cowardly murdered in Rio de Janeiro in 2018, Afro-Brazilian leader and fellow colleague at the collective movement to build the Dicionário de Favelas that today carries her name. May she rest in power. For their academic stimulation, and generous support I am grateful to Sophie Guérard de Latour, Nuno Venturinha, Jean-françois Kervegan, Gabrielle Radica, Alexandre Faria, Fernando Tenório, Ogochukwu Nzewi, José Puppim de Oliveira, José Pepe Fajardo (in memoriam) who taught EBAPE’s students how to run panel data models and is thus somehow present in this research, Ricardo Rezende Figueira, Rogerio Pinto, Cristina Helena, Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira. I am also extremely honored for the generous support and for the acceptance to participate in my doctoral qualification and/or oral examination by Adriana Erthal Abdenur, Isabel de Siqueira, Joana Monteiro, Gregory Michener, Octavio Amorim Neto, and Cristina Yumie Aoki Inoue. I am thankful to my EBAPEan colleagues for their excellence in research and mutual motivation over the years. I acknowledge the generous financial support of the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil (CAPES) during my Ph.D. and during my visiting research period in South Africa at the School of Public Management and Administration (SPMA), University of Pretoria. To my SPMA colleagues, especially to Prof. Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu, and my co-office Dr. Mary Mangai, I am grateful for their warm reception, and for putting me in contact with state-of-the-art research on government and public policies for development in Sub-Saharan Africa. I also must thank the generous reception organized by The Djibouti Ministry of Agriculture, the University of Djibouti, FAO Djibouti in the person of Leone Lombi, and The Ethiopian Ministry of Health to conduct interviews for data collection. The transparency and proactive sharing of valuable information regarding food security in the region was crucial to the development of this dissertation. I am grateful to my advisor Daniela Campello for her limitless support of my research ideas since 2016, for believing in my research since its most earliest format, for always setting the bar high intellectually and methodologically, and ultimately for her infinite patience in dealing with uncountable unforeseen circumstances originated along these last difficult and trying years in Brazil. Finally, I must thank my life partner Larissa Nicolosi. Without her inquisitive mind and unselfish heart, concluding this dissertation would have been much less fulfilling, and much more difficult. She was also brave enough to marry me during the Ph.D, which only reveals her fearless instinct of loyalty. This research is also fruit of our relationship. Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 10 1. Literature Review .................................................................................................................................... 12 2. Empirical Data ........................................................................................................................................ 19 2.1. Population & Sample ....................................................................................................................... 22 3. Empirical Methodology: Nested Analysis as a Multimethod Comparative Strategy ....................... 25 3.1. The Multimethod Logic: From Regularity to Causation .............................................................. 25 3.2. LNA Research Design ...................................................................................................................... 28 4. Panel Estimations .................................................................................................................................... 42 4.1. Panel Results ..................................................................................................................................... 44 5. Small-N Analysis: Case Selection ........................................................................................................... 50 6. Case Studies and Causal Mechanisms Analytics .................................................................................. 55 7. The Republic of Djibouti: Electoral Conflicts, Food terrorism, and Chronic Water Shortage ....... 58 8. The Republic of Guinea-Bissau: Institutional Instability, Civil War, and Trade Deficit ................. 82 9. The Republic of Angola: From Civil Warfare to Civil Welfare ......................................................... 97 10. Cross-country pattern matching, and Classification of Determinants: Considering On-the-line Model-testing, Off-the-line Model-building, and Equifinality…...……………………………………. 116 11. Conclusion: Armed Conflicts and Chronic Hunger in Contemporary Sub-Saharan Africa ....... 135 References .................................................................................................................................................. 142 Appendix 1. Literature Review Summary. ............................................................................................. 163 Appendix 2. Charts of PoU (%) and Armed Conflicts variation across sub-Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2015, by country. ................................................................................................................. 167 Appendix 3. Income standards measured by GDP per capita growth (average annual %) across sub- Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2015. ....................................................................................... 173 Appendix 4. Pooled Average and Minimum Dietary Energy Requirement (kcal/caput/day) across sub- Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2015. ....................................................................................... 174 Abstract During the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) period 1990-2015, sub-Saharan African countries attained an average reduction rate of 30.1% of chronic hunger prevalence. However, although some countries were successful in eradicating hunger by 2015, others have attained worse levels of chronic hunger than they previously had in 1990. Based on cross-sectional and time-series data, this research aims to explore the impacts of armed conflicts on chronic hunger prevalence in sub-Saharan African countries. A nested analysis and multimethod comparative research design are adopted as the empirical strategy for the causal analysis of the impact of armed conflicts on chronic hunger prevalence across 39 sub-Saharan African countries during the MDG period 1990-2015. Panel data models’ estimations are used as large-N analyses (LNA) to test hypotheses on the regular effects of armed conflicts on chronic hunger. Subsequently, small-N analyses (SNA) based on the case studies of the Republic of Djibouti,
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