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Issue 160 - July 2020

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Issue 160 - July 2020 Issue 157-April 2020 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON AVIATION 3 GLOBAL IMPACT 4 IMPACT ON THE ARAB WORLD & AACO MEMBERS 8 ARAB STATES’ HEALTH MEASURES DURING THE RESTART 9 AIR TRANSPORT RESTART IN THE ARAB WORLD 12 RELIEF MEASURES ADOPTED BY GOVERNMENTS 17 ECONOMIC RELIEF MEASURES ADOPTED BY ARAB GOVERNMENTS 18 ECONOMIC RELIEF MEASURES ADOPTED BY NON-ARAB GOVERNMENTS 22 AVIATION RELIEF MEASURES ADOPTED BY ARAB GOVERNMENTS 35 AVIATION RELIEF MEASURES ADOPTED BY NON-ARAB GOVERNMENTS 38 PARTNER AIRLINES 56 INDUSTRY PARTNERS 61 VIRTUAL TRAINING CALENDAR 81 AACO COMMUNITY 83 AIRImpact TRANSPORT of COVID-19 MARKET PandemicINSIGHTS on Aviation Global Impact Countries Imposing Travel Restrictions In Response To The COVID-19 Pandemic* Totally restrictive Partially restrictive No regulations related to Latest updates are under review Coronavirus implemented To view individual country restrictions please click here * Updates are until 09 July 2020 Source: IATA Year-on-Year Weekly Change in Capacity (Seats) Globally vs. Global COVID-19 Cases* 10% 12,000,000 0% 10,000,000 -10% -20% 8,000,000 -30% 6,000,000 -40% -50% 4,000,000 -60% 2,000,000 -70% -80% 0 Feb-20 May-20 15-Jun-20 29-Jun-20 Ja n-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 1-Jun-20 8-Jun-20 22-Jun-20 6-Jul-20 Global Capacity (Left scale) Total Infected Cases (Right scale) Total Recovered Cases (Right scale) *Data is based on published schedules Source: OAG Analyzer, Johns Hopkins Issue 160-July 2020 4 During the first week of June 2020 (upon the release of the previous Nashra issue), the decline in weekly global seat capacity (Y-o-Y) reached -65.1% and global COVID-19 infected cases reached around 6.06 million. In this issue of the Nashra, during the last week of July, the decline in weekly global seat capacity reached -55.3% and the total number of infected cases reached around 11.3 million. Year-on-Year Weekly Change in Capacity (Seats) Globally and in the Five Countries with Highest COVID-19 Cases* 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% -120% Ja n-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 1-Jun-20 8-Jun-20 15-Jun-20 22-Jun-20 29-Jun-20 6-Jul-20 World U.S. Brazil India Russia Peru China *Data is based on published schedules Source: OAG Analyzer, AACO In the previous Nashra issue, the top five countries with highest infection rate were U.S., Spain, Brazil, the U.K., and Russia. Looking at this issue, we can observe that Brazil is still in the second place after the U.S. with the highest infected cases, India overtook Spain, Russia, and the U.K., Russia overtook Spain. Finally, Peru overtook the U.K. to become in the fifth place. Global Fleet Status by Major Aircraft Types (As on 3 July 2020) Number of Aircraft 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 B737 B777 B787 B767 B757 B747 B717 B727 A320 A321 A330 A319 A350 A380 A300 A340 A318 A310 A220-300 A220-100 A320 Neo A321 Neo A330 Neo B737 Max Total Aircraft In-service: 21,213 : Total Non-operated Aircraft: 12,632 In-service Non-operated Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, AACO As on 2 June 2020, in our last issue of the Nashra the total number of in- service aircraft reached 17,231, compared to 21,213 as on 3 July 2020. On the other hand, total non-operated aircraft were 16,623 as on June 2, 2020 compared to 12,632 as on July 3 2020. Between 2 June and 26 June, global fleet retirements increased by 9 Aircraft. Issue 160-July 2020 5 Fleet Retirments (From 1 January until 26 June 2020) Wide-bodies Narrow-Bodies Freighters 49 121 20 Fleet Retirments (From 1 January until 02 June 2020, last Nashra Issue) Wide-bodies Narrow-Bodies Freighters 48 116 17 Global Fleet Orders (As on 3 July 2020) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Ja n-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 On-order Cancelled Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, AACO Business Confidence* Improved during June 2020 65 Economic activity continued its good 60 performance in June 2020 across major 55 economies showing signs of improvement, 50 45 especially across the services sector as 40 countries lifted restrictions on retailers, 35 restaurants, and other related activities. 30 Therefore, Business confidence* improved 25 by 11.4 points in June 2020 compared to 20 May 2020, reaching 47.7 (anything below 15 50 indicates a contraction). 10 5 China continued its good performance Dec-19 Ja n-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 in June 2020 (being in the expansion World U.S. Eurozone China Russia India zone) supported by the boost in domestic demand. As for the remaining economies, Source: Bloomberg, AACO more improvement is witnessed in June 2020 compared to May 2020, as consumer’s *Measured by Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which tracks business activity regains momentum. confidence amongst firms, below 50 represents a contraction when compared to previous month. Issue 160-July 2020 6 Impact on the Arab World & AACO Members Year-on-Year Weekly Change in Capacity (Seats) vs. Arab world COVID-19 Cases * 10% 800,000 0% Ja n-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 1-Jun-20 8-Jun-20 15-Jun-20 22-Jun-20 29-Jun-20 6-Jul-20 700,000 -10% -20% 600,000 -30% 500,000 -40% 400,000 -50% -60% 300,000 -70% 200,000 -80% 100,000 -90% -100% 0 To/From the Arab world (Left scale) Within Arab World (int'l) (Left scale) Total Confirmed Cases (Right scale) *Data is based on published schedules Source: OAG, WHO During the first week of June upon the release of our Nashra previous Issue, the decline in weekly seat capacity (Y-o-Y) to/from the Arab world reached -85.4% and within the Arab world -81.7% with a total number of infected cases reaching around 290,000. In this Issue of the Nashra, during the first week of July the decline in weekly seat capacity to/from the Arab world reached 69.0% and within the Arab world -58.9% and the total number of infected cases reaching around 681,000. AACO Members' Year-on-Year Weekly International Capacity Changes (Seats)* 10% 0% Ja n-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 1-Jun-20 8-Jun-20 15-Jun-20 22-Jun-20 29-Jun-20 6-Jul-20 -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -90% -100% To/From the Arab world Within Arab World (int'l) *Data is based on published schedules Source: OAG Analyzer, SRS Analyser, AACO During the first week of June upon the release of our Nashra previous Issue, the decline in weekly seat capacity (Y-o-Y) for AACO members to/from the Arab world reached -87.9% and within the Arab world -83.7%. In this Issue of the Nashra, during the first week of July the decline in weekly seat capacity for AACO members to/from the Arab world reached -66.3% and within the Arab world -63.1%. Issue 160-July 2020 7 AACO Members Fleet Status (As on 3 July 2020) Number of Aircraft 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 B777 B737 B787 B747 B767 B757 A320 A380 A330 A350 A321 A319 A310 A300 A318 Others ATR 72 A220-300 A320 Neo A321 Neo B737 Max Total Aircraft In-service: 782 : Total non-operated Aircraft: 712 In-service Non-operated Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, AACO As on 2 June 2020, in our last issue of the Nashra, the total number of AACO Members’ in-service aircraft reached 522 compared to 782 as on 3 July 2020. On the other hand, total non-operated aircraft were 972 as on June 2 compared to 712 as on 3 July 2020. In-service aircraft exceeded non-operated aircraft for the first time since April 2020, showing good signs of recovery. Business Confidence Improved in June 2020 across the Arab economies 60 Looking at the Arab world, business 55 activity improved further in June 50 2020, supported by the 37% increase 45 in oil prices, reaching USD 40.3 in June 40 35 2020 up from USD 29.7 in May 2020, 30 and the gradual resumption of the 25 services sector. 20 15 As for the numbers, in June 2020 10 PMI in the UAE and Egypt increased 5 by 3.7 and 3.9 points respectively in Dec-19 Ja n-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 June 2020 compared to May 2020. On Saudi Arabia UAE Egypt Lebanon the other hand, PMI in Saudi Arabia declined by 0.4 points affected by Source: Bloomberg, AACO the recent decision to increase the value-added tax. Similarly, Lebanon’s *Measured by Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which tracks business PMI declined by 7 points during the confidence amongst firms, below 50 represents a contraction when same period, affected by the current compared to previous month. currency crisis. Issue 160-July 2020 8 Arab States’ Health Measures During the Restart of Air Transport Issue 156-March 2020 9 Measures Adopted by a Number of Arab States During the Restart of Air Transport Following the publication of ICAO’s CART “Take-Off Guidance” and “ICAO CART Report”, several Arab Civil Aviation Authorities adopted measures to restart aviation and mitigate COVID-19 risks.
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