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ANNUALANNUAL REPORT REPORT1441H-2020 1441H-2020 Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority 56th Annual Report 1441H (2020) BOARD OF DIRECTORS SAMA 1.The Governor, Dr. Ahmed A. Alkholifey Chairman 2. The Vice Governor, Ayman M. Al-Sayari Vice Chairman 3. Mr. Hamad S. Al-Sayari 4. Mr. Abdulaziz M. Al-Athel 5. Mr. Khaled A. Al-Juffali 4 Ahmed A. AlKholifey It gives me pleasure to present, in the name of Governor and Chairman the Board of Directors, the 56th Annual Report of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, which reviews the latest developments in the Saudi Ramadan 1441H economy during fiscal year 1440/41H (2019). May 2020 The Report covers developments in various areas of the domestic economy, including monetary developments, banking activity, capital market, prices, public finance, national accounts, foreign trade and balance of payments. It also provides an overview of the latest economic developments in various domestic productive sectors, apart from giving a full description of SAMA’s functions, such as setting and managing monetary policy and supervising banking, insurance and finance sectors. In addition, the Report includes the auditors’ report on SAMA’s balance sheet for fiscal year ended on June 30th, 2019. In addition to data issued by SAMA, the Report mainly relies on official data obtained from ministries, government departments and public entities, to which I would like to extend my sincere thanks for their cooperation in providing valuable information and data that enabled SAMA to prepare this Report. I also would like to thank all SAMA’s staff for their efforts in preparing this Report and in carrying out all functions entrusted to SAMA. 5 For correspondence and inquiries: SAMA Head Office and Branches: Postal address: Head Office Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority Riyadh Economic Research Department P.O. Box 2992, Riyadh 11169 Branches: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Makkah Madinah Telephone: (+966) 11 - 4633000 Riyadh Email: [email protected] Jeddah Dammam For the latest reports, monetary and banking statistics, Ta’if quarterly balance of payments estimates and instructions Buraydah issued to financial institutions supervised by SAMA, please Jazan visit SAMA’s website Tabuk http://www.sama.gov.sa Abha 6 CONTENTS 01 Global Economy 8 02 Saudi Economy 25 03 Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources 44 04 Monetary Developments 55 05 Banking Sector 63 06 Insurance and Finance 79 07 Consumer Price Index 91 08 Capital Market 97 09 External Sector 113 10 Public Finance 127 11 National Accounts and Sectoral Development 133 12 SAMA Achievements and Aspirations 140 13 SAMA Balance Sheet 159 7 GLOBAL ECONOMY countries also registered a decreased growth of Annual Report th 56 0.1 percent in 2019 versus 1.1 percent in 2018. The | overall growth rate in emerging and developing Global Economy Asia declined to 5.5 percent in 2019 compared to 6.3 percent in 2018. In contrast, the growth rate of the U.K. slightly increased from 1.3 percent in World Economic Situation 2018 to 1.4 percent in 2019. Japan also recorded In 2019, the global economy registered a growth an increased growth rate of 0.7 percent against 0.3 Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority Saudi Arabian rate of 2.9 percent compared to 3.6 percent in 2018. percent in 2018. According to the April 2020 IMF World Economic According to the April 2020 WEO, the global Outlook (WEO), the global economy is projected to economy is projected to contract by 3.0 percent contract by 3.0 percent in 20201. in 2020, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, as compared to a growth rate of 2.9 percent in Economic Growth 2019. The advanced economies are expected to Growth in the advanced economies slowed to 1.7 contract by 6.1 percent in 2020. The US economy is percent in 2019 versus 2.2 percent in 2018. The expected to contract by 5.9 percent, the euro-area slowdown stemmed primarily from the growth rate economy by 7.5 percent, and emerging market declines in the United States and the euro area. US and developing economies by 1.0 percent in 2020. growth slowed to 2.3 percent in 2019, as compared China’s growth is expected to drop to 1.2 percent to a growth of 2.9 percent in the preceding year. in 2020 (Table 1-1). Chart 1-1 shows the real GDP The euro area growth rate decreased to 1.2 percent growth rates in the major countries and country in 2019 against 1.9 percent in the preceding year. groups over the 2016-2020 period. France, Germany and Italy recorded decreased growth rates of 1.3 percent, 0.6 percent and 0.3 Inflation percent, respectively, in 2019 compared to 1.7 In the advanced economies, average inflation percent, 1.5 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, dropped to 1.4 percent in 2019 from 2.0 percent in the preceding year. In emerging market and in 2018. In the United States, the inflation rate developing economies, the overall growth rate decreased to 1.8 percent in 2019 from 2.4 percent declined from 4.5 percent in 2018 to 3.7 percent in 2018. In the euro area, the rate decreased to 1.2 in 2019. The growth rate in China decreased to percent in 2019 from 1.8 percent in 2018. In the 6.1 percent in 2019 from 6.7 percent in 2018 MENA countries, the rate also decreased to 9.0 and in India to 4.2 percent from 6.1 percent in percent in 2019 compared to 11.0 percent in the 2018. Furthermore, the growth rate in the MENA preceding year. However, in the emerging market countries declined from 1.0 percent in 2018 to and developing countries, the inflation rate rose 0.3 percent in 2019. Emerging and developing from 4.8 percent in 2018 to 5.0 percent in 2019 Europe registered a decreased growth rate of 2.1 (Table 1-2). Chart 1-2 shows the percentage change percent in 2019 compared to 3.2 percent in the in consumer prices for various country groups preceding year. Latin America and the Caribbean during 2018-2020. 1 According to the June 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, global growth is projected at -4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 WEO forecast. The IMF updated projections stemmed from that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity than anticipated and that the recovery is projected to be gradual than previously forecast. The slower recovery in the updated forecast reflects persistent social distancing and greater damage to global supply chains. 10 Unemployment Chart 1-3 shows average unemployment rates for The weighted average unemployment rate selected groups of countries during 2017-2020. in advanced economies decreased from 7.1 Global Economy percent in 2018 to 6.6 percent in 2019. In the Fiscal Balances in Advanced Economies United States, unemployment also went down The overall fiscal deficit in advanced economies to 3.7 percent in 2019 from 3.9 percent in 2018. rose to 3.0 percent of GDP in 2019, from 2.6 In the euro area, it decreased from 8.2 percent percent in 2018. The United States deficit in 2018 to 7.6 percent in 2019. Additionally, increased from 5.7 percent in 2018 to 5.8 percent the unemployment rate in Italy, France and in 2019. The deficit in the euro area increased Germany declined slightly to 10.0 percent, 8.5 from 0.5 percent in 2018 to 0.7 percent in 2019. percent and 3.2 percent, respectively, in 2019 In France, it increased from 2.3 percent to 3.0 compared to 10.6 percent, 9.0 percent and 3.4 percent. The fiscal deficit in Japan also rose from percent, respectively, in 2018. Moreover, the 2.4 percent to 2.8 percent in 2019. On the other unemployment rate in the United Kingdom fell hand, the surplus in Germany decreased from 1.9 to 3.8 percent versus 4.1 percent in 2018. On percent in 2018 to 1.4 percent in 2019. In Italy, the the other hand, unemployment rate in Japan deficit declined from 2.2 percent to 1.6 percent. In remained unchanged at 2.4 percent (Table 1-3). the United Kingdom, the deficit went down from 2.2 percent to 2.1 percent in 2019 (Table 1-4). Table 1-1: Real GDP Growth Rates (Percentage) Projections 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 World 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.9 3.6 2.9 -3.0 Advanced Economies 1.4 2.1 2.3 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.7 -6.1 USA 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.3 -5.9 Euro area -0.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 -7.5 Germany 0.4 2.2 1.7 2.2 2.5 1.5 0.6 -7.0 France 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 2.3 1.7 1.3 -7.2 Italy -1.8 -0.01 0.8 1.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 -9.1 Japan 2.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 2.2 0.3 0.7 -5.2 UK 2.1 2.6 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.4 -6.5 Canada 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.0 3.2 2.0 1.6 -6.2 Emerging and Developing Economies 5.1 4.7 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.5 3.7 -1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 5.2 5.1 3.2 1.4 3.0 3.3 3.1 -1.6 Emerging and Developing Asia 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.3 5.5 1.0 China 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.1 1.2 India 6.4 7.4 8.0 8.3 7.0 6.1 4.2 1.9 Middle East and North Africa 2.5 2.7 2.4 5.5 1.7 1.0 0.3 -3.3 Emerging and Developing Europe 3.1 1.9 0.9 1.8 4.0 3.2 2.1 -5.2 Latin America and the Caribbean 2.9 1.3 0.3 -0.6 1.3 1.1 0.1 -5.2 Brazil 3.0 0.5 -3.6 -3.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 -5.3 Commonwealth of Independent States 3.7 2.5 1.0 -1.9 0.8 2.4 -- -- Russia 1.8 0.7 -2.0 0.3 1.8 2.5 1.3 -5.5 Source: World Economic Outlook (WEO), IMF, April 2020.
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