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ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report Volume 29 – Issue 41 – 13th October 2019 1Local Real Estate Foreigners’2 Trading3 Features Comparative4 The5 Weekly Market Holdings in the at Boursa Kuwait Performance of Performance of September 2019 Kuwaiti Banking September 2019 Selected Stock Boursa Kuwait Markets Sector September 2019 Prepared by Economic Research Unit I ALSHALL Consulting Co. I Tel: + 965 22451535 I Fax: +965 22422619 1 Local Real Estate Market September 2019 The latest released data by the Ministry of Justice -Real Value of investment housing activity scored KD 103.1 Estate Registration and Authentications Department- million, higher by 90.1% from KD 54.2 million in August (after excluding the crafts activity and the coastal strip 2019. Its contribution to total liquidity decreased to 31.4% system) indicate a great increase in real estate market versus 37.6% in August 2019. Monthly trading average liquidity during September 2019 versus August 2019 value of investment housing activity during 12 months liquidity. Total value of contracts and agencies traded scored KD 118.8 million. This means that trading value during September scored KD 328.9 million which was a during September 2019 was lower by -13.2% compared 127.8% increase than its counterpart value in August 2019 with the last 12 months' average. Moreover, its deals which was at KD 144.4 million, also higher by 55.8% increased to 127 deals compared with 67 deals in August when compared with September 2018 liquidity that 2019. Therefore, the average value per deal for investment totalled KD 211.1 million. housing scored KD 812 thousand versus KD 810 thousand in August 2019, representing an increase by 0.3%. Trading during September 2019 was distributed between KD 308.4 million to contracts and about KD 20.5 million Commercial activity trading value increased to KD 75.9 to agencies. Number of real estate deals in this month million or by 313.4%, compared with KD 18.4 million in scored 590 deals of which 560 contracts and 30 agencies. August 2019. Its percentage out of total real estate trading The highest share in real estate deals went to Al Ahmadi value rose to 23.1% in September versus 12.7% in August Governorate by 182 deals representing about 30.8% of the 2019. Average value of commercial activity trading in 12 total number of real estate deals. Hawally Governorate months scored about KD 58.5 million. This means that came second with 114 deals representing 19.3%. While total trading value in September was higher by 29.7% than the lowest share went to Al Jahra Governorate by 42 deals, the last 12 months' average. However, its deals scored 38 representing about 7.1% of the total. deals compared with 46 for August 2019. The average value per deal for September 2019 scored KD 2 million Value of private residential activity scored KD 146.5 versus KD 399 thousand average for August 2019, a million, rising by 108.2% compared with KD 70.3 million 400.5% increase. Moreover, two deals occurred for stores in August 2019. While its contribution percentage activity in September 2019 valued at KD 3.4 million, decreased to 44.5% of the total real estate trading versus compared with 1 deal at KD 1.5 million in August 2019. 48.7% in August 2019. The monthly average value for private residence trading in the last 12 months scored KD When comparing total September 2019 trading with 131.6 million. This means that September trading value September 2018, we note that real estate markets liquidity was higher by 11.3% than the average. The number of increased from KD 211.1 million to KD 328.9 million, a deals for this activity was at 423 deals versus 417 deals in 55.8% rise as mentioned previously. The rise included the August 2019. Accordingly, the average value of private commercial activity by 2272% (compared to one deal that residence activity deal registered at KD 346 thousand occurred in September 2018 valued at KD 3.2 million) and versus KD 324 thousand in August 2019, an increase by private residence activity by 49.3%, while investment 6.8%. housing activity declined by -6.1% compared to their levels in September 2018. 1 If we compare total trading value since the beginning of will continue at the same level for the remainder of the the current year until September 2019 with its 2018 year (3 months), market trading value would amount to counterpart, we note an increase in total real estate KD 3.466 billion, which is KD 165.1 million lower than market liquidity from KD 2.509 billion to KD 2.600 the total for last year, representing a -4.5% decline below billion, a 3.6% growth. If we assume that market liquidity 2018 level which scored KD 3.631 billion. Deals Distribution According to the Governorates of Kuwait Al Ahmadi 30.8% Al Jahra Mubarak Al Kabeer 7.1% 17.6% Kuwait City 14.4% Al Farwaniyah Hawally 10.7% 19.3% 2 Real Estate Transactions Trading Value and the Monthly Traded Average KD Million 250 200 150 131.6 118.8 100 58.5 50 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 Private Investment Commercial Private Avg. Investment Avg. Commercial Avg. Value of Real Estate Transaction During the Last 12 Months KD Million 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 Private Investment Commercial 3 2 Foreigners’ Holdings in the Kuwaiti Banking Sector The world's stock markets are in a state of extreme value of the sector as of October 9, 2019. This confirms volatility as concerns about the performance of the global what we stated earlier that these investments are going in economy have coincided with a substantial rise in opposite direction to the behavior of local investors so far. sovereign and private debt and the high rise in stock prices The need to publish daily information about them is after a long time of cheap money abundance. As Boursa important because it serves two purposes. Kuwait has become open to foreign indirect investment, we believe it is important that we monitor its behavior The first one is protective as the negative forecasts regarding its investments therein. Under the troubled currently prevailing in the world may result in the situation currently, the follow-up will be repeated at close withdrawal of those hot funds at an inappropriate time. Knowing the matter when it happens and the local periods, perhaps weekly according to our assessment of investor's participation at an early stage might limit it and the performance of world stock markets. We have to point reduce its harm. The second positive purpose is in case of out that all that is published about foreign investment at the stability or even the increase of these investments, the stock market comes from Boursa Kuwait website and knowing that information prevents speculation about the once a week, and only for the banking sector. We believe it withdrawal of foreigners or mitigates the impact of the should be available about all listed companies on a daily basis. rumor climate, which may support the local investor's confidence, which is still weak. Available figures on foreign investments in Kuwaiti banks, and contrary to expectations, indicate that these The world today is competing for a piece of information in investments rose in their absolute value from the lowest terms of the speed of its access and in terms of its point at KD 1311 million achieved on September 18, 2019 significance. Trading information is the easiest and the by 8.07% of the capitalization value of the sector to about need for it to guide the decision making is a crucial KD 1485 million or about 8.74% of the capitalization necessity. We do not see a single reason for publishing it once a week and about only one sector. Foreigners’ Holdings and Market Cap in Kuwaiti Banks Market Cap in Kuwaiti Banks Holdings in Kuwaiti Banks 4 3 Trading Features at Boursa Kuwait – September 2019 Kuwait Clearing Company issued its report regarding The last contributor to liquidity is the investment funds “Trading Volume according to Nationality and Category” sector which acquired 7.2% of total value of sold shares for the period from 012019/01/ to 302019/09/ which is (12.2% for the same period of 2018) and 6.3% of total published on the official website of Boursa Kuwait. The value of purchased shares (8.3% for the same period report indicated that individuals still form the largest 2018). The sector sold shares worth KD 446.894 million trading group and their contribution is rising in terms of and purchased shares worth KD 390.453 million, with a selling and purchasing shares. They acquired 44.9% of net trading of selling by KD 56.441 million. total value of sold shares (36.2% for the first 9 months of 2018) and 41% of total value of purchased shares (37.1% Boursa Kuwait still continues to be a local Boursa with for the first 9 months of 2018). Individual investors sold Kuwaiti traders forming the largest trading group. They shares in the amount of KD 2.779 billion and purchased sold shares worth KD 5.230 billion capturing 84.5% of shares in the amount of KD 2.537 billion with a net trading total sold shares (81.5% for the same period of 2018), and of selling, by KD 241.722 million.
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