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2020 Survey of Artificial General Intelligence Projects for Ethics, Risk, and Policy

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2020 Survey of Artificial General Intelligence Projects for Ethics, Risk, and Policy http://gcrinstitute.org 2020 Survey of Artificial General Intelligence Projects for Ethics, Risk, and Policy McKenna Fitzgerald, Aaron Boddy, & Seth D. Baum Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Cite as: McKenna Fitzgerald, Aaron Boddy, and Seth D. Baum, 2020. 2020 Survey of Artificial General Intelligence Projects for Ethics, Risk, and Policy. Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Technical Report 20-1. Technical reports are published to share ideas and promote discussion. They have not necessarily gone through peer review. The views therein are the authors’ and are not necessarily the views of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute. Executive Summary Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is artificial intelligence (AI) that can reason across a wide range of domains. While most AI research and development (R&D) deals with narrow AI, not AGI, there is some dedicated AGI R&D. If AGI is built, its impacts could be profound. Depending on how it is designed and used, it could either help solve the world’s problems or cause catastrophe, possibly even human extinction. This paper presents a survey of AGI R&D projects that are active in 2020 and updates a previous survey of projects active in 2017. Both surveys attempt to identify every active AGI R&D project and characterize them in terms of relevance to ethics, risk, and policy, focusing on seven attributes: The type of institution in which the project is based Whether the project publishes open-source code Whether the project has military connections The nation(s) in which the project is based The project’s goals for its AGI The extent of the project’s engagement with AGI safety issues The overall size of the project The surveys use openly published information as found in scholarly publications, project websites, popular media articles, and other websites. The 2020 survey uses information from the 2017 survey as well as the past three years of the Journal of Artificial General Intelligence, the past three years of AGI conference proceedings (the 2017 survey covered prior content from the Journal of Artificial General Intelligence and the AGI conference proceedings), keyword searches in Google web search, Google Scholar, Crunchbase, GitHub, the authors’ prior knowledge, suggestions from readers of the 2017 survey, and additional literature and webpages identified via all of the above. The use of Crunchbase, GitHub, and reader suggestions is new to the 2020 survey. The 2020 survey has two main findings. First, the expanded search methodology has identified a large number of new AGI R&D projects, bringing a more comprehensive picture of the field of AGI R&D. Second, accounting for the expanded search methodology, there has been little change in the field of AGI R&D between 2017 and 2020. Some 2017 projects are now inactive and some new projects have emerged in 2020, but the overall picture is largely the same. Specific trends are as follows: The 2020 survey identifies 72 active AGI R&D projects spread across 37 countries. The 2017 survey identified 45 projects in 30 countries. The 2020 survey updates the 2017 dataset, finding 70 projects that were active in 36 countries in 2017, 57 of which remain active in 2020. Relative to the 2017 survey, the AGI R&D projects presented in the 2020 survey tend to be smaller, more geographically diverse, less open-source, less focused on intellectual goals, more focused on humanitarian goals, and more concentrated in private corporations. The 2020 survey presents some small changes between 2017 and 2020 projects: a decrease in academic projects, an increase in private corporation projects, an increase in projects stating humanitarian goals, a decrease in projects with military connections, and a decrease in projects based in the United States. Other project attributes have been approximately constant. 2 Looking at just the 72 projects active in 2020, the trends can be summarized as follows: Many of the projects are interconnected via common personnel, common parent organizations, or project collaboration. About half of the projects are in private corporations. Academic institutions are the second- most common institution type. About half of the projects publish open-source code and about half do not. Only nine projects have identifiable military connections. The connections mostly involve basic research and sometimes involve tactical military applications. No major strategic military AGI R&D activities were identified. Almost half of the projects are based in the US, and most are based in a country allied with the US. Five projects are based in China. 20 projects are multinational, including six projects that operate in both China and the US. More than half of the projects state humanitarian goals. The second-most common type of stated goal is intellectual. Many projects have an orientation toward commercializing AGI as a product, though few of these explicitly state profit as a goal. Most projects are not active on AGI safety issues, and some are openly dismissive of AGI safety concerns, though some others have a significant emphasis on safety. Most projects are in the small-to-medium size range. The four largest projects are BlueBrain (an academic project based in Lausanne, Switzerland), DeepMind (a Google project based in London), the Human Brain Project (an academic project also based in Lausanne), and OpenAI (a nonprofit based in San Francisco). The largest projects are over 100 times larger than the smallest projects as measured in terms of full-time project personnel. Looking across multiple attributes, some additional trends are apparent: There is a cluster of corporate projects are active on safety and state that their goals are to benefit humanity (i.e., is humanitarian). Another cluster is of academic projects that are not active on safety and state intellectual goals. Many of these projects have funding from military research agencies such as DARPA. Projects new to the 2020 survey are mostly small-to-medium-sized private corporations, many of which articulate humanitarian goals and are oriented toward commercializing AGI as a product without stating profit as a goal. Additionally, the 2020 survey identifies, for the first time, a preponderance of projects that state a focus on AGI but demonstrate no other AGI activity. These projects are counted separately from the 72 projects described above. Figure ES1 on the next page presents an overview of the data. 3 Humanitarian Both Intellectualist Profit Other Unspecified FLOWERS AERA Academic LIDA MIL NARS Animats Leabra MIL AGi3 AGI Laboratory CommAI Susaro Corporate-Humanitarian- Intelligent Artifacts Engaged On Safety Cluster Brain Simulator II New Sapience Cognitive Science & y GoodAI t d Solutions Monad e e Apollo Program AGI Laboratory f OpenAI g Corporate Susaro a for AGI NNAISENSE AGi3 a Vicarious Mauhn S g Fairy Tale AGIS Cyc MIL n Fairy Tale AGIS n Core AI DeepBrainz E O DeepMind OpenAI FLOWERS OpenCog Academic-Intellectualist-Not Binary Other Whole Brain Neurons Architecture Initiative Engaged On Safety Cluster US academic military sub-cluster Network Big Mother Blue Brain ACT-R Corporate- CLARION Mostly Small- Human Human Sigma MIL Brain Academic AIXI SOAR Not Engaged ANSNA Brain On Safety Project d Project Sigma MIL e y Cluster t g NiHa e a f Graphen Nigel Astrum M3-CLIC g Cerenaut a AIBrain ORBAI Prome Baidu Research n Research Curious AI Brain2Bot S Tencent AI Lab E Mindtrace HTM MSR AI n Xephor Mind Simulation t Corporate Olbrain SingularityNet Sanctuary AI MIL Solutions Omega o O SOAR True Brain Computing SingularityNet Optimizing Mind N Uber AI Labs Research Center Drayker He4o China NDEYSS AGI Brain Brain Project for Brain-Inspired Other MIL MIL Intelligence SingularityNet Robot Brain Project SingularityNet WILLIAM MARAGI Figure ES1. Overview of the 72 identified AGI R&D projects characterized according to 7 attributes: Institution type: academic (mainly universities), corporate (public and private corporations), and other (government, nonprofit, and projects not affiliated with any institution). Open-source code: blue background indicates code available open-source; red background indicates code available upon request. Military connections: projects labeled MIL have military connections. Nationality: Flags indicate the country in which a project is based. Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Iceland, India, Iran, Ireland, Japan, Netherlands, Pakistan, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, USA, no project location identified Stated goals: animal welfare, ecocentrism, humanitarian, intellectualism, profit, transhumanism, and unspecified (when project goals could not be identified). Engagement on safety: engaged projects either actively try to make their AGI safe or state that they support other AGI safety work; projects that are not engaged on safety either openly dismiss concerns about AGI safety or have no publicly stated activity on safety. Size: font size of project names indicates project size. 4 The data suggest the following conclusions: Regarding ethics, the major trend is that projects are split between stated goals of benefiting humanity and advancing knowledge, with the former largely from corporate projects and the latter largely from academic projects. While these are not the only goals that projects articulate, there appears to be a loose consensus among projects to aim for some combination of these two goals. The 2020 survey finds a small increase in the number of projects
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